杰富瑞-全球金属与矿业：人工智能将如何改变采矿业-How AI Could Transform Mining-20260306

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Jefferies

Global|Metals&Mining

EquityResearchMarch6,2026

HowAICouldTransformMining

GrowinguseofAIacrosstheminingindustryhasthepotentialtodrive

meaningfulgainsinproductivity,reducerelianceonfossilfuelsandother

consumables,lowerenvironmentalfootprints,improvesafetyoutcomes,and

enhanceprofitabilityandreturns.SpecificusecasesofAIinmininginclude

advanceddataprocessingandanalysis,orebodyidentification,minedesignoptimization,automation,smartoreextraction,andsafetymonitoringandimprovement.

Artificialintelligenceissettoplayagrowingroleinminingbyimprovingexplorationandproductionefficiency,loweringoperatingcosts,andsupportingincrementalsupplygrowth.Beyondoperationalbenefits,AI‑driveneconomicgrowthandthebuildoutofpowerinfrastructuretomeetrisingelectricitydemandshouldprovidestructuralsupportfordemandacrossselectindustrialmetals.ThisnoteoutlinesthekeywaysthatAIisinfluencingtheminingsector.

AdvancedDataAnalysisandProcessing:AIallowsminerstorapidlyprocessandanalyzelargedatasets,enablingmoreaccurateandefficientinterpretationofgeologicalinformation—suchasseismic,geochemical,andgeophysicaldata—toimprovemineraldiscoveryandreduceexplorationrisk.

OrebodyIdentification:Tomeetgrowingglobaldemand,minerswillneedtodiscoveranddevelopdeeper,morecomplexresources.AI‑drivenimagerecognitioncanenhanceexplorationbyidentifyingoptimaldrillingtargets,includingthosebeneathcomplexgeologicalstructures,whileAI‑enabledsystemscanalsoimprovedrilling,blasting,andmaterial‑handlingefficiency.

MineDesignOptimization:AI‑drivensimulationsallowminingcompaniestooptimizeminedesignandresourceallocation,supportingmoreefficientplanningandimprovedoperationaloutcomesoverthelifeofamine.

ExpandingAutomationinMining:AIisexpectedtoaccelerateautomationacrosstheminingindustrybeyondthecurrentfocusonautonomoustrucksandrail.Broaderdeploymentofautonomousequipmentcanenhanceproductivity,loweroperatingcosts,andimprovesafety,whilealsoreducingenergyandwaterconsumptionand,inturn,theenvironmentalfootprintofminingoperations.

PrecisionOreExtraction:AI‑drivensimulationscanoptimizeoreextractionstrategies,improvingefficiencyandreducingwaste.TheuseofAIalgorithmsandsensor‑enabledequipmentallowsformorepreciseoresortingattheface,loweringdilutionandminimizingorelosses.TechnologiessuchasthosedevelopedbyMineSenseillustratehowreal‑timeorecharacterizationcanenhancerecoveryandoverallmineeconomics.

SafetyEnhancements:AI‑enabledmonitoringsystemscanenhancesafetybydetectingabnormaltemperatureandvibrationpatternsandbymonitoringoperatorfatigueinnon‑automatedequipmenttomitigateoperationalrisk.

ChristopherLaFemina,CFA*|EquityAnalyst

(212)

336-7304|clafemina@

PatriciaHove,CFA*|EquityAnalyst

(212)

707-6362|phove@

AlbertRealini,CPA*|EquityAssociate

(212)

778-8487|arealini@

AlexanderRickard*|EquityAssociate

(212)

323-7647|arickard@

GiovanniHolmes^|EquityAssociate

+

442075484172|gholmes@

Pleaseseeanalystcertifications,importantdisclosureinformation,andinformationregardingthestatusofnon-USanalystsonpages4-9ofthisreport.

*JefferiesLLC/JefferiesResearchServices,LLC^JefferiesInternationalLimited

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Metals&MiningEquityResearchMarch6,2026

AIandTechnologyThemesinMining

Miningexecutivesareincreasinglyhighlightingtheroleofartificialintelligenceasakeydriverofoperationalimprovementandlonger‑termindustrychange.ManagementcommentaryhasfocusedonAI’spotentialtoenhanceproductivity,reducecosts,andimprovedecision‑makingacrosstheminingvaluechain,fromexplorationandmineplanningtoextraction,processing,andsafety.Executiveshavealsoemphasizedthatwhileadoptionremainsatanearlystage,AIisexpectedtobecomeanincreasinglyimportanttoolastheindustryconfrontschallengessuchasdecliningoregrades,risingcostpressures,laborconstraints,andstricterenvironmentalandsafetystandards.Below,weoutlinerecurringthemesemergingfromsomerecentmanagementdiscussionsonAIadoptionandtheintegrationofrelateddigitaltechnologies.

•AI-drivendatacenterexpansionboostingmetalsdemand:Teck,BHP,Freeport,Glencore,andAlcoaallflagsurgingAI/datacentercapexasanewengineformetaldemandgrowth.

•CopperdemandlinkedtoAItechnology:BHP,Glencore,andFreeportunderlinethatadvancingAIwillrequiresignificantlymorecopperforservers,cabling,andpowerinfrastructure.

•Automation&RemoteOperations:BHP,Freeport,FirstQuantum,andAnglodeployautonomoushaulage,cavemonitoring,integratedcenters,andremotelongwallforsafetyandproductivity.

•Tailings&CycloneTechnology:TeckandAngloadvancecyclone-basedtailingshandlingandsandreplacement,addingsecondarysystemsandmodifications.

•OperatingSystems&TechnicalExcellence:BHP,Alcoa,RioTinto,andFirstQuantumemphasizeproprietaryoperatingsystemsandexecutionknow-howtooptimizeperformance.

•Rail&ConveyorInnovations:BHP’sRailTechnologyProgrammeandFirstQuantum’slow-energyrailconveyortargetsafer,efficientbulkmaterialtransport.

Improvementsinproductivity,costefficiency,environmentalperformance,andsafetydrivenbytheadoptionofartificialintelligencehavethepotentialtosupporthighervaluationsacrosstheminingsector.Byloweringoperatingcosts,improvingassetutilization,andreducingoperationalrisk,AIcanenhancemarginsandimprovethesustainabilityofcashflowsoverthecycle.Inparallel,broadereconomicgainsassociatedwithAIadoptionacrosstheglobaleconomycouldbesupportivefordemandforindustrialcommodities,particularlythosetiedtoelectrification,infrastructure,andpowergeneration.Strongerdemandfundamentalswould,inturn,besupportiveofhighercommodityprices,drivingincrementalearningsandfreecashflowgrowthforminers.Thecombinationofimprovedoperationalperformance,strongerearningsvisibility,andhighercommoditypriceswouldbeconstructiveforequityvaluationsandshouldtranslateintohighersharepricesovertime.

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Metals&MiningEquityResearchMarch6,2026

Exhibit1-GlobalMiningandSteelComparableValuations,CY2025E-2027E

March5,2026CurrentPriceP/EEV/EBITDAFCFYieldDividendYield

CompanyTickerRatingPriceTarget2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027EP/NPV

Europe

AngloAmericanAALLNBuy3379p4200p83.4x25.9x24.0x10.4x7.3x6.9x0.2%1.4%2.6%0.5%1.5%1.7%1.6x

AntofagastaANTOLNHold3857p3700p39.7x28.7x27.9x15.4x13.1x12.5x-1.9%0.0%0.7%1.3%1.2%1.3%1.9x

BHPLtdBHPLNHold2779p2700p15.8x14.0x14.2x6.6x6.0x6.1x4.8%4.1%4.7%3.6%3.9%3.8%1.1x

GlencoreGLENLNBuy515p590pN/A16.8x14.0x9.0x6.7x6.2x-1.3%2.5%5.5%1.5%2.5%1.2%1.0x

RioTintoPlcRIOLNHold6787p7000p13.5x10.8x11.1x6.7x6.0x6.0x3.1%5.5%7.1%4.4%5.5%5.4%1.1x

Americas

AlcoaAAUSBuy$59.17$75.0015.7x12.8x11.7x9.2x6.6x5.8x3.9%2.1%7.1%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.8x

BHPLtd(ADR)BHPUSHold$74.78$73.0016.0x14.1x14.4x6.6x6.0x6.2x4.7%4.0%4.6%3.6%3.9%3.8%1.1x

FirstQuantumFMCNBuyC$34.48C$47.00N/M24.9x9.2x18.1x10.6x5.3x3.9%0.5%9.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.8x

Freeport-McMoRanFCXUSBuy$61.67$76.0034.9x20.4x16.7x15.2x10.8x8.8x-0.2%3.5%5.8%1.0%0.9%1.4%1.5x

LundinMiningLUNCNBuyC$36.11C$43.0029.4x25.7x24.3x13.8x11.2x11.1x2.7%4.2%3.5%0.7%0.3%0.3%0.9x

RioTintoPlc(ADR)RIOUSHold$92.48$94.0013.8x11.1x11.4x6.9x6.1x6.1x3.0%5.4%7.0%4.3%5.4%5.3%1.1x

TeckResourcesTECK.BCNBuyC$72.64C$95.0023.4x19.8x20.1x9.1x6.9x6.7x0.8%3.6%5.8%0.7%0.7%1.1%1.9x

Vale(ADR)VALEUSBuy$15.34$20.0027.8x9.3x10.1x5.1x4.7x4.9x4.3%2.7%3.1%5.3%10.2%5.6%0.8x

AsiaPacific

BHPLtdBHPAUHoldA$55.15A$52.0016.5x14.6x14.9x6.8x6.2x6.4x4.6%3.9%4.5%3.4%3.7%3.7%1.1x

MMG1208HKHoldHK$9.00HK$11.0027.4x11.6x12.8x7.1x4.9x5.0x9.8%7.6%8.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9x

RioTintoLtdRIOAUHoldA$164.58A$162.0017.2x13.8x14.2x8.4x7.5x7.6x2.4%4.3%5.6%3.5%4.3%4.2%1.4x

CoalMiners

AlphaMetallurgicalResourcesAMRUSHold$182.69$205.00N/M27.2x11.4x18.7x7.7x4.9x-0.1%5.9%10.6%N/MN/MN/M1.0x

CoreNaturalResourcesCNRUSBuy$93.77$105.00N/M21.6x14.4x10.6x5.9x4.5x0.5%10.6%12.8%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.8x

PeabodyEnergyBTUUSBuy$32.74$44.00N/M12.6x8.6x8.5x4.1x2.9x-1.9%8.7%12.6%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.7x

RamacoResourcesMETCUSBuy$14.29$20.00N/MN/MN/M20.5x8.7x7.8x-8.8%0.6%5.3%1.9%0.0%0.0%0.7x

WarriorMetCoalHCCUSBuy$78.42$120.0072.5x10.0x8.5x16.0x5.2x4.7x-3.9%11.5%11.7%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.8x

SteelProducers

AlgomaSteelASTLCNHoldC$6.34C$6.00N/MN/M22.0xN/MN/M7.0x-51.2%-12.6%17.2%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.5x

Cleveland-CliffsCLFUSHold$10.54$13.00N/MN/M17.5xNM8.7x6.2x-18.9%2.1%9.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6x

CMCCMCUSBuy$68.40$85.0016.3x10.1x9.8x7.9x7.0x6.4x4.0%7.9%10.3%1.1%1.1%1.1%0.9x

NucorNUEUSBuy$171.99$200.0022.8x14.3x14.3x10.6x7.7x7.1x-0.5%4.7%8.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%0.8x

SteelDynamicsSTLDUSBuy$187.89$195.0023.4x14.6x13.1x14.5x9.3x8.2x1.8%7.4%8.0%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.0x

PricedIntraday

Source:Factset,Jefferiesestimates

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Metals&MiningEquityResearchMarch6,2026

CompanyValuation/Risks

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AnalystCertification:

I,ChristopherLaFemina,CFA,certifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecurity(ies)andsubjectcompany(ies).Ialsocertifythatnopartofmycompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.

I,PatriciaHove,CFA,certifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecurity(ies)andsubjectcompany(ies).Ialsocertifythatnopartofmycompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.

I,AlbertRealini,CPA,certifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecurity(ies)andsubjectcompany(ies).Ialsocertifythatnopartofmycompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.

I,AlexanderRickard,certifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecurity(ies)andsubjectcompany(ies).Ialsocertifythatnopartofmycompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.

I,GiovanniHolmes,certifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecurity(ies)andsubjectcompany(ies).Ialsocertifythatnopartofmycompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.

Registrationofnon-USanalysts:GiovanniHolmesisemployedbyJefferiesInternationalLimited,anon-USaffiliateofJefferiesLLCandisnotregistered/qualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRA.Thisanalyst(s)maynotbeanassociatedpersonofJefferiesLLC,aFINRAmemberfirm,andthereforemaynotbesubjecttotheFINRARule2241andrestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalyst.

AsisthecasewithallJefferiesemployees,theanalyst(s)responsibleforthecoverageofthefinancialinstrumentsdiscussedinthisreportreceivescompensationbasedinpartontheoverallperformanceofthefirm,includinginvestmentbankingincome.Weseektoupdateourresearchasappropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Asidefromcertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst'sjudgement.

InvestmentRecommendationRecord

(Article3(1)eandArticle7ofMAR)

RecommendationPublishedMarch5,202617:00P.M.

RecommendationDistributedMarch6,20268:00A.M.

CompanySpecificDisclosures

HamishWiltshirehasanequitypositioninBHPGroupLtd(ASX:BHP).

JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiariesmakeamarketinthesecuritiesorADRsofAngloAmerican.

JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiariesmakeamarketinthesecuritiesorADRsofAntofagasta.

JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiariesmakeamarketinthesecuritiesorADRsofGlencore.

JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiariesmakeamarketinthesecuritiesorADRsofRioTinto.

JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiariesisactingasamanagerorco-managerintheunderwritingorplacementofsecuritiesforAlgomaSteelGroupIncoroneofitsaffiliates.

Withinthepast12months,JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiarieshasreceivedcompensationfrominvestmentbankingservicesfromAlgomaSteelGroupInc.

Withinthepast12months,JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiarieshasreceivedcompensationfrominvestmentbankingservicesfromCleveland-CliffsInc.

JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiariesisactingasamanagerorco-managerintheunderwritingorplacementofsecuritiesforCleveland-CliffsIncoroneofitsaffiliates.

JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiarieshasactedasamanagerorco-managerintheunderwritingorplacementofsecuritiesforCleveland-CliffsIncoroneofitsaffiliateswithinthepasttwelvemonths.

Withinthepast12months,JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiarieshasreceivedcompensationfrominvestmentbankingservicesfromCoreNaturalResources,Inc.

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Metals&MiningEquityResearchMarch6,2026

Withinthepasttwelvemonths,CoreNaturalResources,InchasbeenaclientofJefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiariesandinvestmentbankingservicesarebeingorhavebeenprovided.

JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiarieshasactedasamanagerorco-managerintheunderwritingorplacementofsecuritiesforCoreNaturalResources,Incoroneofitsaffiliateswithinthepasttwelvemonths.

Withinthepast12months,JefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiarieshasreceivedcompensationfrominvestmentbankingservicesfromFirstQuantum.

Withinthepasttwelvemonths,FirstQuantumhasbeenaclientofJefferiesFinancialGroupInc.,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiariesandinvestmentbankingservicesarebeingorhavebeenprovided.

JefferiesInternationalLtd,itsaffiliatesorsubsidiarieshas,orhad,withinthepast12monthsanagreementtoprovideinvestmentservicestoFirstQuantum.

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ExplanationofJefferiesRatings

Buy-Describessecuritiesthatweexpecttoprovideatotalreturn(priceappreciationplusyield)of15%ormorewithina12-monthperiod.

Hold-Describessecuritiesthatweexpecttoprovideatotalreturn(priceappreciationplusyield)ofplus15%orminus10%withina12-monthperiod.

Underperform-Describessecuritiesthatweexpecttoprovideatotalreturn(priceappreciationplusyield)ofminus10%orlesswithina12-monthperiod.

Theexpectedtotalreturn(priceappreciationplusyield)forBuyratedsecuritieswithanaveragesecuritypriceconsistentlybelow$10is20%ormorewithina12-monthperiodasthesecompaniesaretypicallymorevolatilethantheoverallstockmarket.ForHoldratedsecuritieswithanaveragesecuritypriceconsistentlybelow$10,theexpectedtotalreturn(priceappreciationplusyield)isplusorminus20%withina12-monthperiod.ForUnderperformratedsecuritieswithanaveragesecuritypriceconsistentlybelow$10,theexpectedtotalreturn(priceappreciationplusyield)isminus20%orlesswithina12-monthperiod.

NR-Theinvestmentratingandpricetargethavebeentemporarilysuspended.Suchsuspensionsareincompliancewithapplicableregulationsand/orJefferiespolicies.

CS-CoverageSuspended.Jefferieshassuspendedcoverageofthiscompany.

NC-Notcovered.Jefferiesdoesnotcoverthiscompany.

Restricted-Describesissuerswhere,inconjunctionwithJefferiesengagementincertaintransactions,companypolicyorapplicablesecuritiesregulationsprohibitcertaintypesofcommunications,includinginvestmentrecommendations.

Monitor-Describessecuritieswhosecompanyfundamentalsandfinancialsarebeingmonitored,andforwhichnofinancialprojectionsoropinionsontheinvestmentmeritsofthecompanyareprovided.

ValuationMethodology

Jefferies'methodologyforassigningratingsmayincludethefollowing:marketcapitalization,maturity,growth/value,volatilityandexpectedtotalreturnoverthenext12months.Thepricetargetsarebasedonseveralmethodologies,whichmayinclude,butarenotrestrictedto,analysesofmarketrisk,growthrate,revenuestream,discountedcashflow(DCF),EBITDA,EPS,cashflow(CF),freecashflow(FCF),EV/EBITDA,P/E,PE/growth,P/CF,P/FCF,premium(discount)/averagegroupEV/EBITDA,premium(discount)/averagegroupP/E,sumoftheparts,netassetvalue,dividendreturns,andreturnonequity(ROE)overthenext12months.

JefferiesFranchisePicks

JefferiesFranchisePicksincludestockselectionsfromamongthebeststockideasfromourequityanalystsovera12monthperiod.Stockselectionisbasedonfundamentalanalysisandmaytakeintoaccountotherfactorssuchasanalystconviction,differentiatedanalysis,afavorablerisk/rewardratioandinvestmentthemesthatJefferiesanalystsarerecommending.JefferiesFranchisePickswillincludeonlyBuyratedstocksandthenumbercanvarydependingonanalystrecommendationsforinclusion.Stockswillbeaddedasnewopportunitiesariseandremoved