国际能源署IEA：关键矿物的可追溯性对能源和经济安全的重要性

CriticalMinerals

TraceabilityforEnergyandEconomicSecurity

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthe

fullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasand

coalsupplyand

demand,renewable

energytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,

energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwill

enhancethereliability,affordabilityand

sustainabilityofenergyinits

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anydataandmapincludedherein,arewithoutprejudicetothestatusofor

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Source:IEA.

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Acknowledgements

ThisreportwaspreparedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA)OfficeoftheLegalCounsel,theOfficeoftheChiefEnergyEconomistoftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks,aswellasotherIEAunits.TheleadauthorsareFélixGagnon,AlexandraHegartyandJoyceRaboca,withvaluableguidancefromK.C.MichaelsandTae-YoonKim.

NicolasMoinierprovidedvaluablecontributions.ZuzanaNohovaprovidedessentialsupport.ThereportwascopyeditedbyAdamMajoe.ThanksalsototheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOfficefortheirhelpinproducingthereport,particularlyJethroMullen,CurtisBrainard,AstridDumond,LivGaunt,JuliaHorowitz,OliverJoy,PoeliBojorquez,IrinaPaunandGraceGordon.

ThisreportdrawsontheresultsfromasurveyjointlydesignedandadministeredbytheIEAandtheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD).Forthepurposesofthisreport,theIEAanalysisincludesresponsescollectedbetweenOctoberandDecember2025.TheOECDextendedthesurveyuntilJanuary2026andwillreleaseaseparatereportontheroleoftraceabilityinsupportingresilientandresponsiblesupplychains.ThepresentreportwaspreparedwithinputfromtheIEA’sCriticalMineralsWorkingParty(CMWP).

ManyexpertsfromoutsideoftheIEAprovidedessentialinputand/orreviewedpreliminarydraftsofthereport.Theircommentsandsuggestionswereofgreatvalue.Theyinclude:

MeganBarnhart

GovernmentoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica

MélanieBlanc

GovernmentofSwitzerland

KristiDisneyBruckner

InitiativeforResponsibleMiningAssurance

EllenCarey

BridgePointPartner

RolandChavasse

InternationalLithiumAssociation

SusannahFitzgerald

NaturalResourceGovernanceInstitute

JessicaGreen

JessicaGreenAdvisory

ColinHamilton

TeckResources

LaurieHayley

GovernmentofCanada

FannyHéraudeau

GovernmentofFrance

ElmiraImani

Glencore

AndrewJacob

BHP

ErleLamothe

GovernmentofCanada

LucaMaiotti

OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment

MartinaMatarazzoFerdinandMaubrey

ResourceMatters

Tesla

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SusannahMcClaren

CobaltInstitute

KanishkNegi

SchneiderElectric

PaulaDinisandAnaPalma

GovernmentofPortugal

KotaroShimizu

Mitsubishi

YunaTae

Google

KaisaToroskainen

GlobalBatteryAlliance

NingWang

ChinaChamberofCommerceofMetals,Minerals&ChemicalsImporters&Exporters

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 5

Background 8

Highconcentrationofmineralsupplychains 8

Understandingtraceability 9

Potentialbenefitsoftraceabilityforenergyandeconomicsecurity 10

Industryperspectivesontraceabilitypractices 12

Useoftraceabilityasapolicyinstrument:Stateofplay 21

Usebyproducingcountries 23

Usebyconsumingcountries 28

Challengesandbarrierstoadoption 31

Implementationcosts 32

Inconsistentstandardsfortechnicalinfrastructureanddatareporting 33

Transmissionofinformationalongthesupplychain 35

Complexandgeographicallyconcentratedsupplychains 37

Opportunitiestoenhancetraceabilityforenergyandeconomicsecurity 39

Strengthenpolicyinstrumentsthatcreateincentivesforcollectingandsharingverified

dataacrossthesupplychain 40

Providefinancialsupportfortraceabilityinfrastructure 43

Collaborateattheinternationalleveltoharmonisetraceabilitystandards 43

Enhanceco-operationbetweenupstreamanddownstreamjurisdictions 45

Adoptagradualandpragmaticapproachfocusingonlesscomplexsupplychainsand

coredataelements 46

Annexes 49

AnnexI 49

AnnexII 52

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Executivesummary

Riskstoenergyandeconomicsecurityfromhighlevelsofconcentrationincriticalmineralsupplychainsbecamearealityin2025.AlloftheIEA’ssixfocusminerals–copper,lithium,nickel,cobalt,graphiteandrareearthelements

–aresettoseestrongdemandgrowth,drivenbytheircentralroleinenergyandstrategicindustrialapplications.Yetdiversificationhaslaggeddemand,withprocessingandrefiningremaininghighlyconcentrated.Risksfromconcentrationmaterialisedin2025asnewexportcontrolsthreatenedthesupplyofmaterialscriticaltostrategicandeconomicallyimportantindustries.

Recentyearshaveseenaproliferationofnewpoliciesandstrategiestoaddressthesesecurityrisks.Policyapproachesdifferacrosscountries,reflectingvariationsintheirstrategicpriorities.Producingcountriestendtoadoptpoliciesthatencouragedomesticprojectsorenhancedomesticoversightoveruseofmineralresources.Consumingcountries,bycontrast,havefocusedmoreonreducingconcentration,enablingdiversificationandpromotingresponsiblepracticesacrossglobalmineralsupplychains,oftenthroughintroductionofsourcingrequirements.

Traceabilityisafoundationaltoolforimplementingeffectivepolicies.Itenablesgovernmentsandcompaniestotrackwheremineralsoriginate,howtheymovethroughsupplychains,whohascustodyofthemandhowtheyaretransformed.Tracedmaterialcanhavefurtherdataattached–suchassustainabilityorqualityattributes–whichcanbecomerelevantdependingonthepolicyobjective.Together,thesedatacanunderpinmeasurescontingentonoriginorperformance,suchasdiversifiedsourcingincentives,requirementslinkedtoresponsibleproductionandconditionsattachedtopublicfinanceandprocurement.

TheIEAandtheOECDconductedajointsurveyontraceabilitywithmorethan80respondentcompaniesactiveincriticalmineralsupplychains.

Basedoninsightsfromthesurvey,thisreportsetsoutthecurrentstateofplayandidentifiespriorityactionstostrengthentheroleoftraceabilityinsupportingenergyandeconomicsecurity.TheOECDissettoreleaseaseparatereportontheroleoftraceabilityinsupportingresilientandresponsiblesupplychains.

Companieshavebegunimplementingtraceabilitysystems,butuptakeremainsunevenacrossminerals,regionsandsupplychainsegments.

BasedontheIEA-OECDjointsurvey,two-thirdsofrespondentcompaniesreporthavingsomeformoftraceabilitysystem–30%withfullcoverageand40%acrossselectedmineralsorsupplychains.Upstreamcompaniesareimplementing

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traceabilitysystemsattwicetherateofdownstreamandmidstreamactors.Adoptionacrossallsupplychainsegmentsismostadvancedincobaltsupplychains,reflectinglong-standingeffortstoimprovevisibility,followedbygraphiteandcopper.Lithiumandnickelsupplychainsseethestrongestadoptionintheupstream,wherearound50%ofcompaniesreportedhavingatraceabilitysystem.Companiesoperatinginrareearthsupplychainsshowstrongfutureintenttoimplementtraceability,drivenbygrowinggeopoliticalconcerns,althoughimplementationhassofarbeenconstrainedbypersistentstructuralchallenges.

Whileadoptionoftraceabilitysystemsisrelativelyhigh,depthandend-to-endcoverageremainlimited.Nearlyallcompanieswithtraceabilitysystemsreportcollectingcountryoforigindata,whilemoredetailedprovenanceinformationislesswidelycovered.Corporatetransparencyorenvironmentaldatacollectionarecollectedataroundhalftherate.Companiesinthemidstreamanddownstreamsegmentsreportenvironmentalindicatorsathigherratesthanthoseintheupstream,reflectinggreaterexposuretoregulatorypressuresinkeyconsumingcountries.End-to-endtraceabilityneverthelessremainslimited,withcoveragetypicallydroppingsharplybeyondcompanies’directsuppliers,underscoringongoingchallengesinextendingimplementationacrossmultipletiersofthesupplychain.

Companiesadopttraceabilityfordifferentreasons,reflectingtheirpositioninthevaluechainandexposuretorisk.Nearlytwothirdsofsurveyedcompaniescitebrandorreputationalconsiderationsandcustomerdemandamongtheirtopthreedrivers,whileover40%citecompliancewithregulatoryrequirements.Downstreamcompaniesareprimarilydrivenbymarket-facingpressureslinkedtoproductsales,whereasupstreamcompaniesaremorestronglymotivatedbyregulatorycompliance.Thisreflectsdifferingexposuretoconsumerscrutiny,riskandmarketaccessconditionsalongthesupplychain.Surveyresponsesalsoindicatethattraceabilitycanserveasade-riskingmechanismtoattractinvestment,particularlyinmorenascentsupplychains,suchasgraphite,rareearthsandlithium,whererespondentsmoreoftencitedgeopoliticalriskmanagementandinvestorobligationsaskeydrivers.

Traceabilityisbeginningtosupportmarketdifferentiation,butpricesignalsremainweak.Onlyonequarterofsurveyedcompaniesreportedreceivingsomeformofpremiumfordifferentiatedmaterials,eitherlinkedtoverifiedoriginortospecificperformance-relatedattributessuchaslow-emissionsproductionorsocialauditcertification.Thissuggeststhatwhiletraceabilitycanalreadysupportdifferentiatedsourcing,pricesignalsarenotyetsufficientlywidespreadorconsistenttodrivemarket-basedsourcingdecisionsatscale.Thispatternisreflectedincurrenttraceabilitydatacollectionpractices.Mostsurveyedcompaniescollectcoredataelementsonprovenanceandownershipthatprovideafoundationforpolicytoolsthatsupportdiversificationbasedonorigin(e.g.

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sourcingrequirements).Farfewercollectenvironmental,socialorcorporatetransparencydata,whichwouldbenecessarytounderpinabroaderrangeofpolicyapproaches,suchasstandards-basedmarkets.

Cost,lackofinteroperabilityandlimitedincentivesforsharinginformationaresignificantbarriersthatcontinuetoconstrainthescalingoftraceabilitysystems.Highimplementationcostswereselectedastheprimarybarrierbyoverhalfofsurveyedcompanies,reflectingthesubstantialupfrontinvestmentrequiredfordigitalinfrastructure,systemintegrationandstaffcapacity.Companiesalsocitelimitedinteroperabilitybetweensystems,commercialconfidentialityconcernsandweakincentivestoshareinformationbeyondsuppliersaskeychallenges.Thesechallengesarenotevenlydistributedacrossthesupplychain:constraintsareparticularlyacuteatthemidstreamstage,whereblending,aggregationandcommercialsensitivitiesfrequentlycreatebottlenecksfordatatransmissionandchain-of-custodyalongthesupplychain.

Governmentactionscanhelptosupportwideruptakeoftraceabilitysystems.Aroundthree-quartersofsurveyedcompaniesindicatethattheyarewillingtoincreaseinvestmentintraceabilityoverthenextthreeyears.Aphasedapproachcanhelptranslategrowingmomentumintopracticaloutcomes,focusinginitialeffortsonafewmineralsupplychainswithgreatereaseofimplementation.Thiscanhelpidentifychallengesandimplementimprovements.Overtime,measurescanbeintroducedinmorecomplexsupplychainsandwithotherdatafields.Astraceabilitysystemsmature,governmentscanleverageverifiedsupplychaindatatoenablemechanismsthatrewarddiversifiedandresponsibleproduction.Thisreportpresentsfiverecommendationsforpolicymakers:

1.Strengthenincentivesforcollectingandsharingverifieddataacrossthesupplychain,combiningregulatoryandfinancialormarket-basedmeasures.

2.Providefinancialsupportfortraceabilityinfrastructure,loweringupfront

andoperationalcostsparticularlyforupstreamandsmalleractors.

3.Collaborateattheinternationalleveltoharmonisetraceabilitystandards,

improvinginteroperability,comparabilityandtrustbetweenmarketactorsandacrossjurisdictions.

4.Enhanceco-operationbetweenupstreamanddownstreamjurisdictions,

includingthroughtechnicalassistanceandsharedplatforms.

5.Adoptapragmaticapproachfocusingonlesscomplexsupplychains

andaninitialsetofcoredataelements,scalinguptomorecomplexsupplychainsandadditionaldatafieldsovertime.

CriticalMineralTraceabilityforEnergyandEconomicSecurity

Background

Highconcentrationofmineralsupplychains

Criticalmineralsarevitalforbothenergyandeconomicsecurity.EachofthesixfocusmineralsidentifiedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)–copper,lithium,nickel,cobalt,graphiteandrareearthelements–playsavitalroleinenergyandstrategicsectors,withdemandsettoriserapidlyoverthecomingyears.

Diversificationisthebackboneofenergysecurity.However,concentrationincriticalmineralsupplychainshasneverbeenhigher,particularlyinprocessingandrefining.In2024,the

marketshare

ofthetopthreerefiningcountriesforkeyenergymineralswas86%,upfrom82%in2020.People’sRepublicofChina(hereafter:China)istheleadingrefinerfor19outofabroadersetof20strategicmaterials,

1

withanaveragemarketshareof70%.Miningandrefiningconcentrationisexpectedto

remainhigh

formostenergymineralsoverthecomingdecade,makingtheassociatedrisksincreasinglydifficulttoignore.

Highconcentrationinminingandrefiningoperationsposesrisksforenergyandnationalsecurity,asitincreasesvulnerabilitytosupplyshocks,particularlywhensupplyfromatopproducingcountryisdisruptedbynaturaldisasters,socialunrest,trademeasuresorgeopoliticaltensions.Governance-relatedshockscanfurtheramplifytheserisks.Enforcementactionsagainstillegalmining,regulatorynon-complianceorcorruptioncantrigger

abruptfacilityclosures

,temporarilyremovinglargevolumesofsupplyfromthemarket.Potentialdisruptionscansignificantlyimpactstrategicsectorssuchasenergy,automotive,defenceandartificialintelligencedatacentres,withcascadingeffectsontechnologyprices,inflation,manufacturingcompetitivenessandthebroadereconomy.

Thisisnolongerahypotheticalconcern,with

halfofthe20strategicminerals

alreadysubjecttosomeformofexportcontrols.Therareearthexportcontrols

introducedinApril2025

havealreadyforcedsomeautomotivefactoriesaroundtheworldtocututilisationratesoreventemporarilyshutdown.IftheexportcontrolssubsequentlyannouncedandthensuspendedinOctober2025werefullyenacted,theeconomicvalueofdownstreamproductionatriskwouldreach

USD6.5trillionperyear

forcountriesoutsideChina,amountingtoalmost10%oftheircombinedannualgrossdomesticproduct.

1Thesemineralsincludegallium,graphite,manganese,rareearths,silicon,molybdenum,cobalt,tellurium,antimony,germanium,indium,lithium,titanium,vanadium,tantalum,tungsten,copper,nickel,chromium,andzirconium.

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Understandingtraceability

Traceabilityreferstothecapacityto

trackandverify

aproduct’sprovenanceandisusuallyunderstoodastheabilitytotrackfourelements:(1)origin;(2)geographicalpath;(3)chainofcustody;and(4)physicalevolution.Ifanentitycantrackthesefourelementsforaparticularproductwithareasonabledegreeofconfidence,theproductcanbesaidtobe“traceable”.

Inparallelwiththesefourcoredataelements,traceabilitymechanismscanalsobeusedtoobtaininformationonaproduct’sperformancemetrics.Theseperformancemetricscancorrespondeithertosustainabilityfactors(e.g.greenhousegasemissions,compliancewithlabourstandardsorcompliancewithtaxregulations)ortoproductquality(e.g.engineeringspecificationsorpurificationlevels).Whentracingaproduct,dataonsustainabilityorqualitycanbeattachedtoprovideamorecompletepictureoftheproduct’sperformance.Forexample,whentracingamineralproductincorporatedintoabattery,informationongreenhousegasemissionscanbeattachedalongthesupplychain,providinganindicationofthebattery’senvironmentalperformancecomparedtootherbatteriesavailableonthemarket.Traceabilitysystemscanalsobeexpandedtoincludeinformationonwhetheraproductincorporatesrecycledmaterial,supportingsecondarysupplyandreducingdependenceonconcentratedprimarysupply.

Traceabilitycantakevariousforms.Someapproachesrequirefullseparationofmaterialsdowntothebatchlevel(e.g.productsegregation),whileothersallowvaryingdegreesofmixingwithuntracedmaterial(e.g.massbalanceandcontrolledblending)ordecouplephysicalsupplyfromitsattributes(

e.g.book-and

-claim).

Tracingaproductusuallyrequirestheimplementationofatraceabilitysystem,withclearlydefinedprocessesforrecordingandsharinginformationalongthesupplychain.Aneffectivetraceabilitysystemshouldbebasedonfourcorecriteria:robusttechnicalinfrastructure,well-definedandstandardiseddatacollection,supplychaincollaboration,andgovernanceandverification.

Throughoutthisreport,theterm“traceability”isusedtorefertomechanismsthatenablethetracingofoneormoreofthefourcoredataelementsmentionedabove(origin,geographicalpath,chainofcustodyandphysicalevolution).Itisnotusedtoencompassdistinctbutrelatedapproachessuchassupplychainmapping,producttransparencyorduediligence.

CriticalMineralTraceabilityforEnergyandEconomicSecurity

Potentialbenefitsoftraceabilityforenergyandeconomicsecurity

Traceabilitycanenablegovernmentsandcompaniestoachievearangeofsecurity,resilienceandreliabilityobjectives.Inthisreport,energyandeconomicsecurityisunderstoodprimarilyinrelationtotheresilienceofmineralsupplychainsthatunderpinthedeploymentofenergytechnologiesandotherstrategicindustrialapplications.Energyandeconomicsecurityencompassseveralelements,includinguninterruptedavailabilityofenergyandstrategictechnologiesataffordableprices,underpinnedbyreliableaccesstominerals.Achievingsecurityrequiresthatsupplychainshavelowexposuretosupplychainconcentration,havetakenactiontomitigaterisksofdisruption(geopolitical,environmental,socialormarket-driven)andhaveincorporatedmeasurestoensurecontinuityofproductionforsectorssuchasenergy,automotive,defenceanddigitalinfrastructure.Traceabilitycancontributetotheseobjectivesbothdirectlyandindirectly.

First,traceabilitycandirectlycontributetoenergyandeconomicsecuritybysupportingtheimplementationofpolicymeasuresthatbolstersupplychainsecurityandpromotediversification.Today,inmanycases,downstreamcompaniesfaceconsiderabledifficultiesinestablishingtheprovenanceoftheirmineralinputs.Buildingthenecessarytraceabilityinfrastructurecanenabledownstreamoperatorstoobtaindetailedorigin-relatedinformationabouttheirmineralinputs,includingthelocationoforigin,geographicalpathandchainofcustody.Thisenhancedvisibilitycanallowcompaniestocomplymoreefficientlyoreffectivelywithpolicymeasuresthatseektounlockalternativesourcesofsupply.Forexample,ifgovernmentsintroducepolicymeasurestopromotediversifiedsupplychains(e.g.origin-basedtaxcreditsortrademeasures),companieswithtraceabilitysystemscanusethedatacollectedtodemonstratecomplianceandaccessincentives,stimulatingdiversifiedsupplyandcontributingtoenergysecurity.

Second,traceabilitycanindirectlycontributetoenergyandeconomicsecurityby providingthenecessaryfoundationforthedevelopmentof

sustainableand

responsiblesupplychains

.Thisiscrucialforbolsteringsecurity,asitcanunlock supplyinnon-incumbentcountriesandreducesupplychainconcentrationwhile mitigatingtheriskofsupplychaindisruptionsassociatedwithpoorpractices.

2

Traceabilitysupportssustainableandresponsiblesupplychainsbyenablingthe

2Inadequateenvironmental,socialandgovernancepracticescanaffectsecurityofsupplyinmanyways.Forexample,communityconcernsaboutwateruseandbiodiversityimpactscanleadtolocalopposition,slowingprojectdevelopmentordisruptingoperations.Similarly,corruptioncanresultindelaysorincreasedprojectcosts.Poorlabourstandardscanleadtostrikes,protestsanddemonstrations,orevenstop-workordersfromgovernmentauthorities.HumanrightsandIndigenousPeoples’rightsviolationsandhighgreenhousegasemissionscancreatelegalorregulatorybarriersformarketaccessinconsumingcountries.

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collectionofperformancemetrics.Thiscanallowmidstreamanddownstream companiestodevelopamoreinformedunderstandingoftheimpactsandquality ofpurchasedmaterials,whileenablingupstreamproducerswithhigherstandards todifferentiatetheirproductsfromthoseassociatedwithpoorerpractices (includinghigh-performingupstreamproducerslocatedincountriesandregions thatmayotherwisebedesignatedashigherrisk).Byenablingthecollectionand disclosureofperformance-relateddata,traceabilitythusprovidesthebedrockfor theemergenceofperformance-basedpurchasingbymidstreamanddownstream companies.Inturn,thiscouldsupporttheemergenceof“high-performanceprice premiums”or“low-performancegreydiscounts”,contributingtothedevelopment ofamarketforresponsibleandsustainablemineralproducts(thoughpremiums maybeconstrainedbytightoperatingmarginsandpricevolatilityinsomesectors andmayneedtobesupportedthroughregulatoryintervention).Aspartofthe

G7

CriticalMineralsActionPlan

,countriescommittedtopromotingstandards-based marketsthatreflecttherealcostsofresponsibleextraction,processingandtrade, includingbystrengtheningtraceabilityasanecessarymeasure.

Whilethisreportfocusesprimarilyontraceability’scontributiontoenergysecurityandsupplychainresilience,itisimportanttorecognisethattraceabilitycanalsobeusefulforbroadergovernanceandrights-basedfunctionswithincriticalmineralsupplychains.

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Industryperspectivesontraceabilitypractices

TheIEAandtheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)launchedajointsurveyinOctober2025asafollow-uptothe2025report,

TheRoleofTraceabilityinCriticalMineralSupplyChains

,andtogaindeeperinsightintohowtraceabilitysystemsareusedwithincompaniesandacrosscriticalmineralsupplychains.

3

Thesurveyexploredtheprevalenceandimplementationoftraceabilityincompaniesacrossthecriticalmineralsupplychain,aswellasthecurrentbarriersandchallengescompaniesface.Thisreportdrawsontheresultsofthisjointlydesignedandadministeredsurvey.

Atotalof82companiesparticipatedinthesurvey,spanningallcontinents.Surveyparticipantsrepresentallstagesofthemineralsupplychain,includingminers(about40%),smelters/refiners(40%),manufacturers(about40%)andendusers(about20%).Manyrespondentcompaniesareactiveatmultiplestagesofthesupplychainandcombinedifferentroles,forexampleoperatingasbothaminerandsmelter/refinerorasbothamanufacturerandenduser.

Therespondentcompaniesaremostpresentincoppersupplychains,followedbylithium,nickelandcobalt.Theupstreamcompaniessurveyedmostlyoperatewithinlithium,copper,nickelandcobaltsupplychains.Companiesoperatinginthemanufacturing,enduserandrecyclingsegmentshaveoperationsspanningmoreevenlyacrossallminerals,reflectingthefactthatmultiplemineralsareoftenusedinenduseapplications,suchasbatterychemistries.

Geographically,companiesoperatinginEuropearethemostrepresented,largelyasmanufacturers,smelters/refinersandendusecompanies.ThisisfollowedbycompaniesoperatinginAsia(excludingChina),NorthAmerica,ChinaandCentralandSouthAmerica.

3Thesurveywasadministeredonlineto500individualcompaniesandindustrynetworks.Forthepurposesofthisreport,theIEAanalysiscoversresponsescollectedbetweenOc