2026年罗马尼亚房地产市场展望报告-

contents

3Executivesummary4Macroeconomics7Investment

10office

13Retail

16Industrial&Logistics19Land

22studentHousing

Executive

summary

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improveinternationalconfidenceinthecountry'seconomicoutlook.

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pricing.RomanianbuyersdominatedQ4(c.35%ofvolume)andaccountedfor31%of2025volume,whileselleractivityisledbyportfolioclean-upsandstrategicexits,ratherthandistress.

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occupierssecuringfuturecapacityandupgradingtomodernspace.Developmentstayedmuted(-49%yoynewsupply),keepingvacancytight(3.8%national;3.5%Bucharest)andsupportingstableprimerentswithmodestupwardpressure.

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countrydistributionmodels.

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costsremainakeydecisionfactor;spillovertonon-coresubmarketsmaycontinueinacontextoflimitedcentralavailability.

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supportedbysolidoperationalperformanceandalimitedpipelineofinstitutional-gradeproduct.

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pricingremainedbroadlystable,withsignificantupwardpressureforwelllocatedplots,aspricingdivergingheavilydependingonzoningclarity,permittingcertaintyandinfrastructureaccess.

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againstastudentpopulationof180,000+,drivingdouble-digitrentgrowthandsustainingstrongprospectsforwell-locatedpBSAdespitealimiteddevelopmentpipeline.

IntroductoryNoteby

LauraDumea-Bencze

HeadofResearch&DirectorInvestmentproperties

welcometocBRE'sRomanianRealEstateMarketoutlook2026.

Romania'srealestatemarketenters2026withstrongoccupierfundamentalsyetsubduedinvestorappetite,atrendmirroredinseveralEuropeanmarkets.Domesticinvestorscontinuetoprovideessentialliquidityamidlowtransactionvolumesanddisciplinedpricing.Investmentstrategiesarefirmlyincome-led,prioritisingcash-flowdurability,leasingperformanceandassetquality.Inthiscontext,Romaniancapitalhasbecomeastabilisingforce,andweencourage

forward-thinkingaroundtheroleofRomanianinstitutionalfundsindrivinginvestmentandconfidenceinthelocalmarket,

occupierdemandstaysrobust,particularlyinindustrialandlogistics,where

leasingexceeded1.0millionsqmin2025,supportedbypre-leases,atight

developmentpipeline,infrastructureupgradesandRomania'sfullschengen

accession.Retaildemandremainsresilient,underpinnedbysolidperformanceandcontinuedinterestinconvenienceformatsandretailparks.officedemandisselectiveyetstable,withoccupiersfocusedonefficiency,locationand

modernspecifications.

Lookingahead,2026shouldseemorealignmentbetweencapitalandoccupiermarkets:investmentvolumesrecovergradually,whilestrongleasing

fundamentalscontinuetosupportincomestability.

Macroeconomics

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Macroeconomics

DisciplineTodayLeadstoQuiet

ResilienceandstabilityTomorrow

TheRomanianeconomyisexpectedtorecordmodestgrowthin2025and2026,underperformingmostof

Europeamidpersistentinflation,fiscalconsolidation,

andelevatedpoliticaluncertainty.GDpgrowthis

estimatedataround1.4%in2025,withagradual

recoverytoapproximately1.6%in2026,reflecting

impactofrestrictivefiscalmeasures,yetthesewere

highlynecessary.Romaniaenters2026amidtighteningbudgetconditions,whichareexpectedtoweighon

consumptionandgovernmentspending.

InflationarypressuresinRomaniaremainsignificantly

higherthantheEuropeanaverage,despiteearlysignsofstabilisation.CPIstagnatedat9.8%yoyinNovember&December2025,butpricepressuresremainbroad-

based.servicesinflationcontinuestobethemain

driver,followedbynon-foodgoodsandfoodinflation.Forfull-year2025,inflationisestimatedtohave

averaged7.3%,reflectingthepass-throughoftax

increasesandtheremovalofenergysupportmeasures.InflationisexpectedtoeasemoremeaningfullyinH22026asbaseeffectstakehold,resultinginanannualaverageof6.5%in2026.

Fiscalpolicyremainsthedominantsourceof

macroeconomicrisk.Budgetdiscussionsfor2026havebeendelayedamidpoliticalresistancetoproposed

austeritymeasuresaimedatreducingthefiscaldeficittoaround6%ofGDpbyend-2026,inlinewithEU

commitments.Inthisenvironment,theNationalBankofRomaniaisexpectedtomaintainarestrictivestance,

keepingthepolicyrateunchangedat6.5%untilatleastQ22026.

Immediatesignalsfromthegovernmentbond10y

marketarepositive-therate,atthebeginningof2026isonadecreasingtrend,by80bpscomparedtopeaklevelsin2025.Thisreflectstheconfidencethe

internationalmarketshaveoverthepoliciesimplementedinRomania.

LabourmarketconditionsinRomaniaremainrelativelyresilient,withunemploymentlowbyhistorical

standards,althoughrealwagegrowthcontinuestobeconstrainedbyhighinflation.

Figure1:EconomicForecasts2026

GDpgrowth(%)1.6

CPI(%)

6.5

1.5

unemployment(%)

5.8

NF*

10-yearbond(%)

6.8

2.8

*Eurozoneunemploymentnotforecastedsource:CBREResearch

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Investment

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Investment

AyearofAdjustment,

Apathtoopportunity

positiveinvestorsentimentacrosstheRomaniarealestateinvestment

marketisexpectedtostrengtheninto2026.while2025remaineda

subduedyear,characterisedbysmallerlotsizesandlimitedinstitutionalactivity,momentumimprovedinQ4andpointstowardsamoreactive

investmentenvironmentahead,atrendvalidformanyEuropeancountriesattheendoflastyear.

Therecoveryremainsatanearlystage,with2025investmentvolumesof

approximatelyEUR535mln,stillwellbelowRomania'sfive-yearannual

average(down30%).ThispatternmirrorsdevelopmentsseenatabroaderEuropeanlevel,whererecoveryisprogressinggraduallyratherthan

sharply.AsinthewidercEEregion,Romania'smarketin2025was

dominatedbyincome-ledstrategies,withinvestorsfocusingondefensiveassetsandstablecashflows.Localcapitalplayedacentralrole,accountingfor31%oftotalannualinvestmentvolume,atrendconsistentwithother

CEEmarketssuchastheczechRepublic,wheredomesticbuyersdominateactivity.

Rentalgrowthandoperationalperformanceareexpectedtoremainthekeydriversofcapitalvaluegrowthin2026,bothinRomaniaandacrossEurope.Lookingahead,Romania'sinvestmentpipelineexceedsEUR800mln,

suggestingthat2026couldresembleamoretypicalmarketyear.This

alignswiththebroaderEuropeanoutlook,wheregradualrecovery

underpinnedbyimprovedliquidity,stablepricing,andsustainedinvestorinterestincoreincome-producingassets.

2025markedatransitionphase.2026isshapingupasayearofrecovery,supportedbyattractivepricingincEEregion,resilientoccupiermarketsandanimprovedeconomy.

Figure2:RomaniaInvestmentvolumeEvolutionbysector

Retail

office

Hotel

Industrial

other

Mixed-use

Residential

Alternative

source:CBREResearch

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O任ce

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office

O任ceDemandHoldsFirmas

supplyReachesaNewLOW

similartocoreEuropeanmarkets,Bucharestoffice

marketfundamentalsstrengthenedin2025,drivenbyresilienttake-uplevelsandthefirstyearwithzeronewdeliveries.Totalleasingactivityreached280,000sqm,down27%year-on-year,largelyreflectingreduced

developmentvolumes,limitedcentralavailability,and

transactionsbroughtforwardinpreviousyears,ratherthanaweakeningofoccupierdemand.Take-uptotaled166,000sqm,inlinewithboth2024levelsandthefive-yearaverage,confirmingastablenetdemandbase

supportedbynewleases,relocations,andexpansions.

DemandwasledbytheFinance,computers&IT,andManufacturing&Energysectors,withleasingactivityconcentratedincenterwest,Floreasca-Barbu

mostliquid,benefitingfromstronginfrastructure,

accesstotalent,andashrinkingpoolofcompetitive

classAspace.vacancycompressedfurtherincore

areas,reachinghistoricallylowlevelsofaround4%

(CBD¢ersubmarkets),whilethecitywidevacancyratestoodat11.1%atyearend.withlimitednon-leasedsupplyadditionsandsimilardemandlevelsexpected,

overallvacancyislikelytocontinuetrendingdownward,withpotentialtomoveintosingle-digitterritory.

Theimmediatedevelopmentpipelineofferslimited

relief.Approximately64,000sqmareexpectedtobedeliveredin2026,withnearly60%alreadypre-leased,sustainingcompetitivepressurefornewandhigh-

qualityspace.ThisdynamicmirrorsbroaderEuropeantrends,whereoccupiersprioritisecentrallocationsthatsupporthigherattendance,shortercommutes,and

amenity-richenvironments.

primerentsinBucharestcontinuetotrendupward,

drivenbystructuralundersupplyandtightening

availabilityincoresubmarkets,whileneteffectiverentsremainbroadlystable,ashigherfit-outcostskeep

incentivelevelsunderpressureratherthandriving

compression.Atthesametime,officeinvestmentyieldshaveremainedbroadlyflatataround7.75%,with

minimalindicationsofrepricinginthenearterm,

suggestingstableriskperceptionandpricing

expectationsforprimeofficeassetsoverthenextsixmonths.

InBucharest,newdemandaccountedfor16%oftheTLA,translatinginto+10%yoy.

Renegotiationsrecordedadeclinecomparedtotheaverageofrecentyears.

Figure3:LeasingActivityEvolution

uRenewalsTake-upNetTake-up

*TLA:TotalLeasingActivity;**Takeup:TotalLeasingActivityexcludingrenewal/renegotiationsource:CBREResearch

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Retail

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Retail

RetailsupplyEvolves,

TenantDemandstaysstrong

whileconsumerspendingsoftenedcomparedto

previousrecordyears,Romania'sretailmarket

remainsstructurallyundersupplied,supporting

continueddevelopmentactivityandretailerinterest.

Followingseveralyearsofstrongexpansion,Romania'sretailmarketcontinuedtoperformstronglyin2025,

amidtighterfiscalconditionsandslowerconsumer

spendinggrowth.Themarketremainedactiveintermsofdevelopmentandoccupierdemand,supportedby

Romania'sstillbelow-averageretaildensitycomparedtomostEuropeanpeers.withmodernretailstock

approaching4.77millionsqm,RomaniacontinuestolagwesternandpartsofcentralEuropeonaper

capitabasis,underliningthestructuralgrowth

potentialthatcontinuestounderpindeveloperandretailerinterest.

Retailcompletionsremainedrobustthroughout2025,albeitwithanotableshiftinthecompositionofnew

supply.shoppingcentresonceagainaccountedfor

themajorityofnewdeliveries,representingaround

twothirdsofnewleasablearea,drivenexclusivelybyextensionsandrefurbishmentsofexistingschemes.

Alongsidethese,severalnewretailparksand

shoppinggalleriesweredeliveredinregionalcities,

reinforcingthecontinuedfocusonsmallerandmid-

sizedurbanmarkets,wheremodernretailprovision

remainslimited.Asaresult,annualretaildeliveries

remainedabovethepre-pandemicaverage,inlinewithbroaderEuropeantrends.

Despiteamorechallengingmacroeconomicbackdrop,retailerappetiteforexpansionremainedsolid,

particularlyamongbrandspositionedinthelowto

mid-pricesegments,aswellasfoodandconvenience-orientedoperators.ThismirrorswiderEuropean

dynamics,wherevalue-ledformatscontinuetooutperformamidcautiousconsumersentiment.

Rentallevelsremainedlargelystablebytheendof2025,followingmoderategrowthearlierintheyear.occupancylevelsacrossprimeschemesremainedresilient,supportedbylimitedavailabilityofqualityspaceandactivetenantrotationstrategies.Inthisrespect,RomaniaalignswithbroaderEuropean

markets,wherelandlordsofdominantassetsareincreasinglyleveragingtheirpositiontoupgradetenantmixes,

Lookingahead,retaildevelopmentactivityinRomaniaisexpectedtoremainelevatedcomparedtohistoricalaverages.Larger-scaleprojectsareexpectedtocomeforwardinthenext2-3years,aswellasa

continuationofretailparkdevelopment.Romania

standsoutasamarketwherestructuralfundamentalscontinuetosupportlong-termretailgrowth,despiteshort-termeconomicheadwinds.

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Industrial&Logistics

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Industrial&Logistics

ResilientoccupierDemandAmid

MutedDevelopmentActivity

InRomania,industrialandlogisticsleasingactivity

strengthenedin2025,withtotalleasingactivity

exceeding1.0millionsqm,broadlyinlinewithhistoricallevelsrecordedin2022and2023.AstrongQ4

performanceof427,400sqm,up67%year-on-year,confirmsacontinuedrecoveryinoccupierdemand,contrastingwiththemoresubduedtake-uptrendsobservedacrossEurope.

ouroutlookpointstocontinued,moderategrowthin

leasingactivity,supportedbysupplychainoptimisation,regionaldistribution,e-commerceexpansion,andthe

consolidationofdistributionnetworks.Netabsorptionisexpectedtoremainconstrainedintheshortterm,

despitehealthytake-uplevels,asasignificantshareoftransactionsreflectsrelocationsandupgradesto

higher-quality,moreefficientfacilities,ratherthanpurefootprintexpansion.ThisdynamicmirrorstrendsseenacrossEurope,whereoccupiersincreasinglyprioritisemodern,future-readyassetsoverolderstock.

Romania'smodernindustrialstockreached8.17mln.sqmbytheendof2025.DevelopmentactivityinRomaniahasdeclinedsharply,withnewsupplytotalingapprox.342,000sqmin2025,a49%yoydecrease,reflectingamorereducedappetiteforspeculativeprojects.

Asaresult,thedevelopmentpipelineremainsmuted,

witharound464,000sqmunderconstructionand

scheduledfordeliverybyend-2026,ofwhichBucharestisexpectedtocapture64%.Agrowingshareof

upcomingcompletionsisalreadypre-let,aligningRomaniawiththebroaderEuropeantrendtowardstightlycontrolledspeculativedevelopment.

vacancyratescontinuedtotrenddownward,reaching3.8%nationally,withBucharestat3.5%andregional

marketsslightlyhigherat4.0%.Thiscontrastswith

partsofEuropewherevacancyhascontinuedtorise,

reflectingRomania'smoredisciplinedsupply

environment.primerentsremainedstableatEUR4.75persqmpermonth,withmoderateupwardpressure

expectedaslimitedavailabilitypersistsandnewsupplyremainsconstrained.

overall,Romania'sindustrialandlogisticsmarketenters2026fromapositionofstrength,underpinnedby

resilientoccupierdemandandrestraineddevelopmentactivity.

Figure4:TotalLeasingActivityEvolutionbyI&LRegion

Bucharestncentralwest/NorthwestsouthEast/NorthEast

source:CBREResearch

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VGpparkAradsource:VGPRomania

Land

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Land

FocusedInvestment,

Transformingcommunities

In2025,morethan136hectaresofdevelopmentlandweretransactednationwide,representinga41%

year-on-yearincrease.ofthetotalarea,55%was

concentratedinBucharestandIlfovcounties,whiletheremaining45%wasrecordedinregionalcities,includingcluj-Napoca,Bacau,andconstanta.overallRomania'slandmarketin2025ischaracterizedbyinformed

acquisitionsandverywelldocumentedstrategiesof

portfolioenhancements.Theintendedusesofthe

transactedlandareconcentratedinfoursectors:retail(33%),mixed-use(26%),residential(22%),andindustrial(18%),withthebalanceallocatedtoothercategories.

Retaildevelopersremainthemostactivelandbuyers,supportedbyambitiousexpansionstrategies.Beyondtheestablishedfocusonsmall-formatretailparksin

secondarycities,Bucharest'surbanandmetropolitan

areahaveemergedasleadingtargets.Theresidentialsectorcontinuestobeappealingfordevelopers

especiallyinBucharest,evenifthissectorwas

challengedin2025bythefiscalmeasuresimplementedfromAugust1st,includingthevATincreaseupto21%.

plansforamixed-usedevelopmentarebeing

consideredbytherealestatedeveloperHexagon,

followingitsacquisitionoftheformercombinatuldeutilajGreu(CUG)industrialplatformincluj-Napoca.

pricingforlandwithclearpermittingwithinandaroundBucharesthaveregisteredmoderateincreasesandthistrendisexpectedtocontinuethisyear.

Elsewhere,landpriceshaveremainedbroadlystable,

marginalincreases,ofupto5%,beingrecordedinsomesecondarycitiesandsuburbanzones.whileinterest

remainsstrongacrossretail,residential,andindustrialsegments,transactionsincreasinglyhingeonclearerzoningstatus,predictableapprovalprocesses,and

confirmedaccesstoessentialnetworks.

Residentialandretailexpansioncontinueto

shapethelandmarket,whileurbanregenerationbecomesakeydriverofdevelopmentactivity.

Figure5:MetropolitanAreaBucharestAskingsellingprice(Range)IDevelopmentLand

150

150

350750

500mm900

office

mm450

Residential

*CUTreferstolandusecoefficient

Retail

500

250

450

Industrial

35

25

source:CBREResearch

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