2026年碳捕集、利用与封存规模化融资：私人资本动员路径研究报告-

FinancingCCUSatScale

Howtomobiliseprivatecapital

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasand

coalsupplyand

demand,renewable

energytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,

energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

affordabilityand

sustainabilityofenergyinits

32Membercountries,13Associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationof

internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEAMembercountries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

CzechRepublicDenmark

Estonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIreland

ItalyJapanKoreaLatvia

Lithuania

LuxembourgMexico

Netherlands

NewZealandNorway

Poland

Portugal

SlovakRepublicSpain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropean

CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAAssociationcountries:

ArgentinaChina

EgyptIndia

Indonesia

Kenya

Morocco

Senegal

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

UkraineVietNam

FinancingCCUSatScaleAbstract

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

Abstract

Carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)isanimportantareaofattentionforgovernmentsandfinanciersasbothlooktobalancepolicyandinvestmentgoals.Recentfinancialinvestmentdecisionsofmajorprojectsshowpromiseinasectorthatisgainingmomentum,butitsfuturesuccessdependsonviablebusinessmodelsandeffectiveriskallocationacrossthevaluechain.

Inthiscontext,FinancingCCUSatScaleistheIEA’slatestreportonwhatittakestomoveCCUSprojectsfromthedrawingboardtooperation.Buildingonexpertinterviewswithleadingfinancialinstitutions,thereportinvestigatesthedistinctiveeconomicandfinancialcharacteristicsofCCUSprojects,theimpactofbusinessmodelsoncommercialviability,andhowCCUSprojectshavebeenfinancedtodate.Basedontheseinsights,thereportprovidestargetedrecommendationsforpolicymakersonhowtodesignpolicy,regulatoryandfinancialframeworksthatcanmoreeffectivelycrowdinprivatecapital.

ThehandbookissupportedbytheIEA

CCUSProjectsDatabase

andcomplementstheIEACCUSHandbookson

CCUSPoliciesandBusinessModels

,

LegalandRegulatoryFrameworksforCCUS

andon

CO2StorageResourcesand

theirDevelopment

.

FinancingCCUSatScaleAcknowledgements

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|4

Acknowledgements

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheEnergyTechnologyPolicy(ETP)DivisionoftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks(STO)oftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyTimurGül,ChiefEnergyTechnologyOfficerandHeadoftheEnergyTechnologyPolicyDivision.Theleadauthorswere(inalphabeticalorder)MathildeFajardyandCarlGreenfield.

OtherkeycontributorsfromacrosstheIEAincludedHeribBlanco,TomoIwaki,PaulinaRosales,andRyoYamasaki.

CharlotteBrackeandPer-AndersWidellprovidedessentialsupportthroughouttheprocess.LizzieSayereditedandproducedthemanuscript.ThanksalsototheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOfficefortheirhelp,particularlytoJethroMullen,CurtisBrainard,PoeliBojorquez,AstridDumond,GraceGordon,JuliaHorowitz,NaomiMorduchToubman,IrinaPaunandLucileWall.ValuablecommentsandfeedbackwereprovidedbyothercolleagueswithintheIEA,inparticularLauraCozzi,CeciliaTam,PhilippeRoseandRichardSimon.

Valuableinputtotheanalysiswasprovidedbyaseriesofconsultationsandsurveyswithofficialsfromfinancialinstitutionsincluding(inalphabeticalorder)AllanBaker(SociétéGénérale),EmanueleBianco(AsianDevelopmentBank),KashBurchett(HSBC),OliverCornelis(Rabobank),BrendanGoulding(Mizuho),DimitriosKoufos(EuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment),DarshakMehta(AsianDevelopmentBank),NiallMacDowell(Barclays),ShuheiMimura(MitsuiSumitomoInsurance),PierpaoloPerna(EuropeanInvestmentBank),LoicPerret(Proparco),MasumiTakanshi(JOGMEC),PradeepTharaka(AsianDevelopmentBank),MartinWeber(CréditAgricoleCorporate&InvestmentBank),andTakeshiYamanobe(MitsuiSumitomoInsurance).

Severalseniorgovernmentofficialsandexpertsprovidedessentialinputandfeedbacktoimprovethequalityofthereport.Theyinclude:NawalAlhanaee,MaryamAlshamsi,AbdallaAlhammadi(MinistryofEnergyandInfrastructure,UnitedArabEmirates);Abdul'AzizAliyu(IEAGreenhouseGasR&DTechnologyCollaborationProgramme);ThereseBadr(AXAXL);AllanBaker(SociétéGénérale);DorusBakker(Porthos);JeffBrown(BrownBrothersEnergy&EnvironmentLLC);JaradDaniels(GlobalCCSinstitute);NiloofarAbdehagh;LailaBalkhi;SamathaBryson;AlineDeAlmeida;KathrynGagnonandStephanieKlak(NaturalResourcesCanada);JonathanDredge(ExxonMobil);HahnLe(AsiaNaturalGasandEnergyAssociation);MaryamGolnaraghi(GenevaAssociation);LesleyHarding(LibertyMutual);FelixLeonardsandChristianPreuss(Heidelberg

FinancingCCUSatScaleAcknowledgements

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|5

Materials);TobyLockwood(CleanAirTaskForce);BelladonnaMaulianda(IndonesiaCCSCenter);TomMikunda(Bellona);TetsuroMizutani(MinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry,Japan);NicolaiMykleby-Skaara(SLBCapturi);JulienPerez(OilandGasClimateInitiative,OGCI);DavidPhilips(OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies);AndrewPurvis(WorldSteelAssociation);ToshiyukiSakamotoandYoshikazuKobayashi(IEEJ);YukimiShimura(MUFG);GustiSuarnayaSidemen(EconomicResearchInstituteforASEANandEastAsia);PaoloTestini(Snam)FridtjofUnander(AkerSolutions);XianZhang(AdministrativeCentreforChina'sAgenda21).

Theindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisstudyarenotresponsibleforanyopinionsorjudgementsitcontains.TheworkreflectstheviewsoftheInternationalEnergyAgencySecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofindividualIEAMembercountries.AllerrorsandomissionsaresolelytheresponsibilityoftheIEA.

FinancingCCUSatScaleTableofcontents

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|6

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 7

ThestrategicchallengeoffinancingCCUSatscale 10

CCUSplaysanimportantroleinreducingemissions 10

Globalinvestmentneedstoscaleacrossarangeofscenarios 12

Privatecapitalcanhelpfillthefinancinggap 14

Purposeandcontributionofthisreport 15

DistinctiveeconomicandfinancialfactorsforCCUSprojects 16

ThebankabilityofCCUSprojectsdependsontheunderlyingbusinessmodel 16

Publicsupportmechanismsshapebankability 18

Riskconsiderationsacrossthevaluechain 19

CCUSfinancingstructuresandtrends 25

Newbusinessmodelsrequirenewsourcesofcapital 25

Publicfundingremainscrucialandisevolving 28

DebtisstartingtoflowintoCCUSprojectsinjurisdictionsandsectorswithattractive

businesscase 29

Involvementofprivateequityandinfrastructureinvestorsremainslimited 31

Multilateralbankscanstepinearlierintheprojectlifecycle 33

Greenbondscouldofferanewavenueforsustainabledebtforinstitutionalinvestors 34

CCUSfinancingstructuresremainhighlymarket-specific 35

Prioritiesforriskmitigation,allocationandassessment 42

Mitigationandallocationstrategiesarecentraltosecuringfinancing 42

Theoperationaltrackrecordcanhelpwithriskassessment,butmoretransparencyis

needed 49

Recommendations 55

Supportbankablebusinessmodelsandviablerisk-sharingmechanisms 55

Ensurelegalandregulatoryframeworksarefitforpurpose 55

Harmonisedefinitionsandstandardsacrossthevaluechain 56

Strengthenriskassessmentthroughdata-sharingandearlycollaborationamong

governments,developers,financiersandinsurers 57

IncreasedevelopmentfundingresourcestomapCO2storagepotential 58

IncludeCCUSinsustainablefinancetaxonomiesandtransitionfinanceframeworks 58

Drawonexperiencesfromothercapital-intensivesectors 59

Annex 61

FinancingCCUSatScaleExecutivesummary

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|7

Executivesummary

Thecurrentwaveofinvestmentincarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)islargerandmoregeographicallydiversethaneverbefore.

Momentuminprivatecapitalflowingintoprojectsisreflectedinthemorethan

30finalinvestmentdecisions(FIDs)thathavebeenreachedinthepast2yearsalone,particularlyinEuropeandNorthAmerica,andinkeysectorsincludingtransportandstorage,industry,andpower.Investmenthasgrownmorethan15-foldsince2020,reachingoverUSD5billionin2025.Thepipelineofprojectscurrentlyunderconstructionsuggeststhatafteryearsofincrementalcapacityadditions,operationalcapturecapacityissettonearlydoubleby2030–andevenmoreprojectsareattheplanningstage.

Thesedevelopmentsrepresentsignificantmilestonesforasectorinwhichprojectsarecomplex,difficulttofinanceandfacedwithuniquerisks.Atitscore,thechallengeforCCUSiscommercialviability.Incontrasttoothercleanenergytechnologies,CCUSmanagesCO2–aproductwithlittleintrinsicmarketvalueandlimitedstandalonedemand.Thisfundamentalconstraintiscompoundedbyseveraldistinctiverisks.AsnewbusinessmodelsdeveloparoundhubsorCCUSservices,projectdevelopersmustco-ordinatecapturefacilities,transportinfrastructureandstoragesitesacrossaconnectedvaluechain,creatingcross-chainrisksandcomplexcontractualrelationships.Long-termliabilityforstoredCO:raisesquestionsabouthowrisksshouldbeallocatedovertime.Althoughtheoperationaltrackrecordisgrowing–withmorethan9000kmofCO2pipelinesandover70large-scalecapturefacilitiesinoperation–projectsremainrelativelybespoke,andsomerisks,suchaslong-termmonitoringandpost-closurestorageliability,havelimitedreal-worldprecedents.Allofthesefactorscomplicateriskassessmentandfinancing.

ScalingCCUSwillrequirefinancingapproachesthatcanaccommodatenewprojectstructuresandawidersetoffinanciers.AsCCUSmovesintonewbusinessmodels,financingmustadapttoawideningsetofprojectsponsorswithlimitedbalance-sheetcapacity,andtohub-basedjointventuresthatrequirerobustrisk-allocationarrangements.Projectfinanceisemergingasasolutiontoallowfirmstopreservecapitalanddistributerisks:morethanUSD15billionincommercialdebthasbeenraisedoverthepast2years,primarilythroughahandfuloflandmarknon-recoursetransactionsinEuropeandNorthAmerica.Venturecapitalandgrowthequityhavealsosupportedtechnologyandinfrastructuredevelopers,butproject-levelprivateequityinvestmentremainslimitedandlargelyconcentratedinNorthAmerica.Unlockinglarge-scaleprivatecapitalwillrequirewideningthepoolofparticipatinginvestorsandlenders,fromcommercialanddevelopmentbankstoinsurersandinstitutionalinvestors.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|8

InterviewsconductedbytheIEAwithadozenfinancialinstitutionsindicatethatappetiteforCCUSisincreasingamongfinanciers,butparticipationremainsconcentratedbecausethesestructuresdependonpredictablerevenuemodelsandclearrisk-allocationframeworksacrossthevaluechain.

Targetedpolicysupportandcarefullydesignedrisk-allocationframeworkshavehelpedseveralprojectstoreachFIDs.GovernmentshaveearmarkedmorethanUSD50billioninpublicsupportforCCUSprojectsoverthepast3years,arecordamount,andearlysignsofregionaldifferentiationinfinancingapproachesarebeginningtoemerge.InEurope,theshifttowardslong-termrevenueandrisk-sharingmechanismsratherthanupfrontgrantsisenablinganewphaseofCCUSdeployment,withmultipleprojectsadvancingtoconstructionoroperation,includingseveralearlyproject-financedtransactions.InNorthAmerica,manyrisksareaddressedcommercially,butrevenuesupportthroughtaxcreditsandlong-termagreementsforcarboncreditscombinedwithexperienceandinfrastructurefromtheoilandgassectorhasenabledseveralprojectstomoveforward,includingCO:transportnetworksservingbioethanolplantsintheUnitedStates.Elsewhere,privatefinanceparticipationremainslimited,withstate-backedcompaniesintegratingCCUSdevelopmentintooilandgasvaluechains,notablyintheMiddleEastandAsiaPacific.

Ensuringthatthecurrentmomentumextendsbeyondasmallnumberofprojectswillrequirepolicysupportthatsupportsviablebusinessmodels.Around90%ofprojectsannouncedfor2035haveyettoreachFID,andanumberofprojectshavealreadybeencancelledorwithdrawnfromgovernmenttendersinthefaceofuncertainfinancingconditions.ProjectstargetingcarbondioxideremovalandhydrogenproductionwithCCUS,inparticular,havestruggledtosecureofftakeagreements,leadingtoprojectcancellationsinmanyregions.InDenmark,

80%ofindustrialbidders

pulledtheirproposalsfromconsiderationinarecentauctionaftercross-chainriskscouldnotbemanaged.

Giventhelimitstogovernmentfunding,supportmustbecomemoretargetedastheoperationaltrackrecordbuilds.Early-stagepublicfundingremainsessential,particularlywhereprivateinvestorsareunwillingtoassumefirst-of-a-kindrisks.Overtime,however,supportmechanismsmayevolvefromdirectgrantsandcapitalfundingtowardmorefocusedrisk-sharinginstruments,suchaslong-termrevenueguaranteesorliabilityframeworksthatremainonpublicbalancesheets.Thiswouldenablefundingtobetargetedwhereitismostefficient.Riskallocationisalsolikelytoshiftasnewactorsenterthesectorandoperationalexperiencegrows.Insomepartsofthevaluechainandincertainjurisdictions,publicinvolvementmayremainnecessarytounderpininvestment,whileinothers,privateactorscouldincreasinglyassumeoperationalandfinancialrisks.Identifyingwhichactorscanstepin,andwhatconditionsareneededtoenablethemtodoso,willbecriticalforscalingCCUSdeploymentintheyearsahead.

FinancingCCUSatScaleExecutivesummary

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|9

PolicyprioritiestoscaleandmobilisefinanceforCCUS

ScalingCCUSwillrequirealigningbusinessmodels,policyframeworksandfinancialstructures.Therecommendationsbelowhighlightactionsgovernmentsandfinancialactorscantaketostrengthenprojectbankability,reduceuncertaintyacrossthevaluechainandbuildthefoundationforasustainablemarketforCCUS.

1.Supportbankablebusinessmodelsandviablerisk-sharingmechanisms.Governmentscanstrengthenbusinessmodelsviastablecarbonpricing,supportforlow-emissionsproducts,andtargetedinstrumentssuchascontractsfordifferenceortaxcredits.Clearriskallocationamongstakeholdersisessential;somerisks,suchaslong-termstorageliability,arelikelytorequireongoingpublicbackstopsinsomejurisdictions.

2.Ensurelegalandregulatoryframeworksarefitforpurpose.Durableframeworksprovidecertaintyandregulatoryclarity.Theymustevolvewithoperationalexperience,addressingemergingissueslikethird-partyaccess,liabilityallocationandcarbonmarketinteractions.Forcross-borderprojects,regionalalignmentonliabilityandcarbonaccountingwillbeimportant.

3.Harmonisedefinitionsandstandardsacrossthevaluechain.Consistentstandards,monitoring,reporting,verificationandcarbonaccountinghelptobuildcrediblemarketsforlow-emissionsproducts.HarmonisedCO:specificationsfortransportandstoragereduceoperationalriskandimprovebankability.

4.Strengthenriskassessmentthroughdata-sharingandearlycollaboration.Operationaldataiscriticalforfinanciersandinsurers,andstructureddata-sharingfrompublicprojectscanimprovetransparency.Earlycollaborationamongdevelopers,governments,financiersandinsurersclarifiesriskallocationandsupportsthecreationoftailoredfinancialandinsuranceproducts.

5.IncreasedevelopmentfundingresourcestoassessCO2storageresources.Limitedknowledgeaboutgeologicalstoragelimitsdeployment,especiallyinemergingmarkets,butsitecharacterisationcanbecostly.Multilateraldevelopmentbanks,developmentfinanceinstitutionsandexportcreditagenciescanprovidesupporttounlockprivateinvestment.

6.RecogniseCCUSinsustainablefinancetaxonomiesandtransitionfinanceframeworks.Thiswouldexpandtheinvestorbaseandaccesstoinstrumentslikegreenandsustainability-linkedbonds.Cleareligibilitycriteriaacrossregionscanalsoboostcredibilityandbroadenaccesstocapital,includingacrossborders.

7.Learnfromothercapital-intensivesectors.Lessonsfromrenewables,electricitynetworksandoilandgasshowthatlong-termcontracts,regulatedreturnsandcapacitybookingsystemscanproviderevenuecertaintyforlargeinfrastructure.AdaptingtheseapproachestoCCUScanmanagevolumerisk,co-ordinateinfrastructureandsupportfinancingoftransportandstoragehubs.

FinancingCCUSatscaleThestrategicchallengeoffinancingCCUSatscale

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|10

ThestrategicchallengeoffinancingCCUSatscale

CCUSplaysanimportantroleinreducingemissions

Carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)encompassesanimportantsuiteoftechnologiesthatcouldhelpdeliveralow-emissions,secureandaffordableenergysystem.Inseveralkeysectors,targetedCCUSdeploymentiscrucialtoenableemissionsreductionandsupportcompetitivelow-emissionsindustrialproduction,andtohelpaligninvestmentstrategieswithcorporatesustainabilitygoals.Oneofthemostimportantrolesisthecaptureofhard-to-abateprocessandcombustionemissionsinindustriessuchascement,steelandchemicals,wherealternativetechnologypathwayscanbemorecostlyorarelessavailable.CCUScanalsoenablethelow-emissionsproductionofhydrogen.

Insomecontexts,andundercertaintechnicalconditions,CCUScanrepresentanimportanteconomicoptiontosustaintheoperationofyoung,fossil-basedpowerassetswithloweremissions,helpingmaintainaffordability,jobsandcompetenciesinemergingeconomies,whicharehometomuchofthiscapacity.Itcanalsorepresentabusinessalternativeforcountrieswithdepletedoilandgasfields,offeringextensivelystudiedoptionstopermanentlystoreCO2whileleveragingtheknowledgeoftheexistingworkforce.

CCUSalsoincludesseveralapproachesthatenableCO2removalfromtheatmospheresuchasthecaptureandstorageofemissionsfrombioenergy(BECCS),ordirectaircapture(DAC).WhenpairedwithpermanentCO2storage,thesetechnologiescanbalancetheresidualemissionsfromindustry,agricultureandlong-distancetransport,whichareparticularlycostlytoabate,aswellasreducethecarbonthatisalreadyintheatmosphere.WhenthecapturedCO2fromthesesourcesisutilisedinsteadofstored,itcanprovideanon-fossilsourceofcarboninsectorstosubstitutefossilcarbonasafeedstockintheproductionofchemicalsandsyntheticfuelsforlong-distancetransport.

ApartfromcapturedCO2usedforenhancedoilrecovery(EOR),projectslinkedtodedicated,permanentstoragehavereliedonsomelevelofpublicfunding.Thisisnotsurprising:intheabsenceofanaturalmarketforstoredCO2,governmentshavesteppedintosupportprojects.Multi-billion-dollarfundingpackagesarenowsupportingfirst-of-a-kind(FOAK)projectsintheUnitedKingdom,NorwayandEuropeanUnion.ThelevelofpublicfundinggoingtoCCUSprojectsoverthelong-termremainsuncertain,buttheneedtomovetoamorecommercialmarketis

FinancingCCUSatscaleThestrategicchallengeoffinancingCCUSatscale

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|11

widelyrecognised.BankablebusinessmodelsandmoresourcesoffinancewillbeneededtosufficientlyscaleCCUSbeyondthe50Mtperyearofoperatingcapturecapacitytoday.

IntheIEAsexploratoryscenariostheCurrentPoliciesScenario(CPS)andtheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)CCUSgrowthremainsmodest,reflectingtodayspolicymomentumandsupportlevels.CapacityisseveralordersofmagnitudelowerthanthecapacitylevelsintheIEANetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZEScenario),inwhichbillionsoftonnesofCCUScapacityaredeployedinthenextcoupleofdecades(seeboxbelow).

WhilerecentmomentumhasputCCUSonamorepositivetrajectory,thegaptotheIEANZEScenariopathwayremainsverylarge,andafargreaterlevelofinvestmentwillberequiredforthetechnologytoscaleinameaningfulway.

Theroleofcarboncapture,utilisationandstorageinIEAscenarios,2030-2050

OperationalcapturecapacityvsNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

GtCO:

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

OperationalNZE2035NZE2050(Q12026)

DACPower

aIndustryVHydrogenandammonia

BiofuelsNaturalgasprocessing

aOtherfuelsupplyOTotal

EmissionsreductionsbyleverintheNetZero

Emissionsby2050Scenario

GtCO:

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

202420302035204020452050

Electrification

Efficiency

DirectrenewableuseOtherCO:abatement

Low-emissionselectricityOtherfuelswitch

CCUS

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:DAC=directaircapture;CCUS=carboncapture,utilisationandstorage;NZE=NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario..

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonIEA(2026),

CCUSProjectsDatabase;

IEA(2025)

,WorldEnergyOutlook.

GiventhatCCUSprimarilytargetsdecarbonisation,deploymentisverydependentonpolicysupport;inIEAscenarios,itsroleislargestintheNZEScenario.

CCUSinIEAscenarios

TheroleofCCUSinthefutureenergysystem

willlargelydependonpolicychoices

.TheCPSandSTEPSdonottargetanyparticularoutcomebutratherofferdifferentpossibleviewsoffutureenergysystemsbasedonpolicies.TheCPSisanchoredinenactedlawsandmeasures,whiletheSTEPShasamoredynamicreadingofpolicy

FinancingCCUSatscaleThestrategicchallengeoffinancingCCUSatscale

HowtoMobilisePrivateCapital

settingsthatmayincludemeasuresthathaveyettobeformallyadopted,subjecttorelevantmarket,infrastructureandfinancialconstraints.

IntheCPSandSTEPS,deploymentislowandlimitedinscope.Capacityscalesuptoaround150-160Mtby2035and270-300Mtby2050,withgasprocessingmakinguparound20%ofcapacityin2050.

Incontrast,theNZEScenariorepresentsapathwaytoreducingglobalenergy-relatedCO2emissionstonetzeroby2050.Inthisscenario,capturecapacityscalesupfromaround60MtCO2peryearin2025to2.3Gtby2035,and6.1Gtby2050,providingaround6%ofglobalemissionsreductionsrelativetothecurrentlevelby2050.

Beyondthemajordifferenceinscale,theNZEScenarioalsorepresentsasectoralshift,asCCUSexpandsfromhistoricaldeploymentfocusedonlow-cost,high-concentrationsourcespairedwithEOR,tonewer,higher-costapplicationspairedwithdedicatedCO2storage.Whilenaturalgasprocessingmakesuparound60%ofthe60MtCO2ofoperatingcapturecapacitytoday,biogenicandaircapture,industry,fossilpowerandhydrogenmakeup99%ofdeploymentby2050.

Globalinvestmentneedstoscaleacrossarangeofscenarios

GlobalannualinvestmentinCCUShasgrownsharply,fromaroundUSD0.3billionin2020tomorethanUSD5billionin2025,

1

drivenbyarenewedinterestinCCUSfromgovernmentsandcompaniesacrossseveralsectors.Thisexceedsinvestmentinthepreviouswaveoftheearly2010s,whenCCUSwaspoisedforamajorexpansionasaresultofpubliceconomicstimuluspackagestoaddressthe2008-2009financialcrises.Intheend,fewprojectsreachedcommissioningandspendingplummetedin2017afterseveralcountrieswithdrewtheirsupport.

Importantly,thecurrentwaveofinvestmentisalsosignificantlybroaderthanbefore,withprojectsnowspanningmultiplesectors,includingthosethattypicallyinvolvemorediluteCO2streamsandthereforehighercapturecosts,orthedevelopmentoftransportandstorageinfrastructure.Thepast2yearshaveseenseveralmilestones,includingfinalinvestmentdecisions(FIDs)ontheworld’s

first

naturalgaspowerplantwithcarboncaptureandstorage

intheUnitedKingdomandtheworl