瑞银-中国股票策略：萌芽初现？-China Equity Strategy Green shoots emerging-20260509

婚§ +86-21-38664873ab2 ChinaindustrialenterpriseprofitYoYChinaretailsalesYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimatesChinaexportChinaexportYoYSecondarypropertysalesYoY ab3 婚§4Domesticexcavatorandheavy-dutytrucksalesYoYCateringretailsalesYoYCapexintentionsimproving–Ashareex-fincapexYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§5ChinaaverageChinaaverageretailgasolineprice(RMB/L)ShanghaiContainerizedFreightIndexChinachemicalpriceindexEstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonChinachemicalpriceindexSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,MinistryofTransport,UBS 婚§6ContainerthroughputYoYChinaweeklydomesticairpassengerYoYInternationalfreightflightYoYPostaldeliveryvolumesYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,MinistryofTransport,UBS 婚§7NBSindustrialNBSindustrialprofitgrowthandA-shareindustrial-reaesecorsearnngsgrowChinaPPIYoYvsAsharenon-financialsrevenuegrowthAsharenon-financialstrailingearningsgrowthvsBrentAsharenon-financialstrailingearningsgrowthvsBrentSource:Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§8QuarterlyearningsgrowthtrendCapexYoYSource:Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSMargintrendMargintrendFY25earningssurprisebysector 婚§9Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§10Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§11EarningsgrowthSource:Wind,UBS 婚§12AsharequarterlyAsharequarterlyearningsgrowthCSI300monthlyearningsrevisions(2014-26F)NBSindustrialprofitgrowthandA-shareindustrial-relatedsectors’earningsgrowthChinaPPIvsA-sharenon-financialsrevenuegrowthSource:Go-goal,Wind,Source:Go-goal,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§13CorrelationwithMSCIACWorldCSI300vsA-sharemarketturnoverA-shareequityriskpremiumvsS&P500A-sharemoreresilientamidglobaluncertaintySource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§14Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§15TrailingROEtrendsA-A-HpremiumValuation(Chinext,CSI300)DividendyieldminusCN10YgovernmentbondyieldSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§16HouseholddepositYoYvsSSECompositePrivatehedgefunds:numberofregistration&scaleSource:Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSNBFIdepositYoYvsSSECompositeMonthlymutualfundnewfundraising 婚§17Southboundnetinflowsminusequityraising(quarterly)Insurers’holdingofstocksOnshoremutualfundholdingofH-sharesA-sharenewretailinvestoraccountopeningsatSSESource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§18 婚§19QuarterlynorthboundQuarterlynorthboundnetinflowsCumulativenetinflowsintoEMex-ChinaequitiesHKshortsellingturnoveras%oftotal(7DMA)TopHKshortsellingturnoveras%oftotal(7DMA)Source:Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§20HSTECHHSTECHforwardP/EFY2612-monthconsensusearningsrevisionbreakdownforHSTECHSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSHSTECHsharepriceperformanceHSTECHvsUSsoftwarecompanies 婚§21Top40globalinvestorpositioninginChineseequityActivelymanagedfunds'ChineseequityholdingsvsbenchmarksSelectedmutualfundpositioninginChineseequityForeignnetinflowsintoEMequitiesoutsideoftheChinaregionSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§22Source:FactSet,UBS 婚§23MSCIChinaforwardP/EMSCIChinaforwardP/ErelativetoMSCIACWorldMSCIChinaforwardFCFyieldMSCIChinaforwardFCFyieldSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§24Source:FactSet,UBSestimates婚§25 SectorCurrentP/EorP/B*5YAverageValuationStandarddeviationForwardPEGFY25consensusearningsgrowth2026YTDReturn(%)ConstructionN/A7%-2%Truck14.621%50%Windpowerequipment20.568%19%Semiconductor53.935.22.01.249%19%Energy11.28.02.037.028%22%Techhardware22.432%12%Constructionmaterials15.910.91.8N/A90%6%Telecom-144.8-5%-2%Poweroperator15.61%4%Aerospace&defense44.135.01.3N/A13%-6%Chemicals16.713.61.2N/A76%17%Transportation13.311.41.2N/A41%-2%Banks*1.83%-1%ShippingN/A-4%7%Datacenter*3.4101%18%Gasutilities81.26%-6%Software59.758.30.1N/A68%-10%ConsumerfinanceN/A-26%-28%Solarsupplychain34.628.10.0N/A327%-5%Pharma5.021%-3%Autoretail8.815.0-0.1-1.1159%-32%Property*0.60.6-0.1-0.4-111%-3%Autoparts16.917.5-0.21.016%-13%Basicmaterials11.612.0-0.20.363%-2%Grid22.222.9-0.22.116%13%Education*1.31.5-0.33.417%-6%Machinery15.916.6-0.30.921%-4%Internet(E-commerce)14.316.8-0.34.013%-15%Airlineairport*1.81.9-0.51.355%-24%Hog*2.32.5-0.53.6-49%-11%Homeappliance10.611.9-0.61.76%-14%Auto18.520.6-0.62.1112%-2%Healthcareservice27.640.7-0.72.783%1%Biotech,CRO31.445.3-0.73.939%7%Expressdelivery*1.62.2-0.7N/A22%13%Furniture10.814.3-0.8N/A9%-9%Baijiu17.724.7-0.94.34%-3%Personalproduct16.921.5-0.9N/A8%-9%Food&beverage16.519.8-0.92.015%-3%EVBattery&materials21.142.4-0.90.845%15%Medicaldevice20.125.5-0.94.322%-11%Pharmaretail15.928.0-0.94.615%-14%Sportswear13.319.8-0.92.05%-2%Restaurant15.623.9-1.02.814%-4%Internet(Media&entertainment)13.120.6-1.01.48%-23%Leisure15.524.9-1.17.6-20%-22%Beer13.923.8-1.10.924%-2%Internet(Onlinegame)13.616.7-1.16.823%-8%Broker11.814.6-1.11.214%-11%Insurance7.39.0-2.02.0-2%-12%Source:FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§26VHSIVHSI10-yeargovernmentbondyieldA-sharetradingvolumeRMBexchangerateSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§27Outputprice2025Capacityoutlookfor2026Outputpriceexpectation2026A-sharenon-financialscapexYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§28ChinaPPIYoYvsMSCIChinarevenuegrowthAAhsharesharenon-financialsprofitgrowthvssalarygrowtBottom-uppricingtrends–ChinaairfareimprovingA-sharecompaniesaveragewagegrowthSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§29JapanSpringwagenegotiation(Shuntou)monthlyavgwageincreaserateJapanunemploymentrateandlaborparticipationJapanfiscaldeficitPPIvscommoditypricesSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§30Source:Datastream,UBSestimates 婚§31BrentoilpriceBrentoilpriceforecastsSource:UBSestimates.Note:*manyconsumersub-sectorsareleastcrowdedandhenceshouldbeleastsusceptibletounwindingofcrowdedtrades 婚§32Source:Source:UBSestimates 婚§33%oftotalenergyconsumption%oftotalelectricitygenerationSource:EnergyResearchInstitute,UBS 婚§34Source:UBSestimates,FactSet.Note:Valuesaremarket-capweighted.婚§35婚§36 12-MonthRatingDefinition254%24%40%21%6%21%a§ 12-monthrating28,18a4,5,6,28,16a,16ba§12-monthratingZijinMiningGroup-H2,13,4,28,18a,1婚§39 婚§40