国外投行对公司价值估值财务分析

REITs–structure,orientation&publicpolicy

ScottCroweGlobalRealEstateStrategist+442075686726ForumonTaxTransparencyandAlternativeLegalVehiclesforListedPropertyFirmsintheUKJanuary2023

UBSInvestmentResearchUBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthat

couldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.1TheGlobalRealEstateUniverseSecuritisationofrealestateislowatc.12%.DevelopmentofnewREITmarketswillseethiscontinuetogrowat10%pa.GreatestgrowthpotentialisJapan,EuropeandUK(in-linewithREITstructure).RealEstateSecuritisationGeographicalSplit

REIT/Non-REITPrincipalRealEstateMarkets2GlobalREIToverviewCommonalities:>70%cashpayoutRestrictionsonnon-rentalincomestreams&gearingTaxtransparencyAimstoprovideareturnprofilenotdissimilartounderlyingrealestateREITvsNonREITMarketCapGlobalREITOverviewGrowthoflistedrealestatedominatedbyREITs3AreREITsrealestate?REITRisk/ReturnprofilenotdissimilartounderlyingrealestateOutcome:REITmarketstradeclosertounderlyingassetvalueIncreasedwillingnesstoholdREITsasasurrogatefordirectpropertyRisk&return–last13yearsAverageNAVprem/(disc)–12yearsAreREITsasurrogatefordirectrealestate?4GlobalREITs–PerformanceSource:EPRA,UBSREITsreturnprofileshavehighriskadjustedreturnsLowvolatility–tightbandingofreturns,consistencyHighincomecomponentofreturnRiskreturnprofile13yearsto202312yearsto2023averageannualreturnSource:EPRA,UBS5TheAustralianExperienceAustralianREITsaimtoprovideasubstitutefordirectrealestateinvestment(i.e.provideareturnnotdissimilartodirectproperty)withenhancedliquidityandreducedlotsizesBeganinthe1970s,butreallytookoffromtheearly90s($5bnto$45bntoday)LPTsarenotsubjecttotaxationprovidedtheydistributeatleastalloftheirtaxableincome(incomeandcapitalgains)Taxisleviedatthehandsoftheinvestor,ratherthanentitylevel(justlikeadirectinvestment),attheinvestorsownmarginaltaxrateIftheunderlyingrealestateiseligiblefordepreciationandbuildingallowances,thenthispartofincomeisdistributedastaxadvantaged(average40%).Overseasinvestorspaywithholdingtaxat30%,althoughthisisonlyonthenon-taxadvantagedcomponentAustraliansuperfundsandforeignpensionfundsusuallypaynotax(taxtreatmentvariesbyentity)Source:UBSestimates6PerformanceLPTshaveconsistentlyoutperformedotherassetclassesVerygoodrisk/returnPerformedin-linewithdirectrealestateSource:UBSestimatesAus.REITs,Bonds&EquitiesAusREITs&DirectProperty7Demand&OwnershipREITsareheldasasurrogatefordirectrealestate.REITsrepresent9%oftheAustralianstockmarket,withc.50%ofrealestatelisted.Increasingneedtomeetsupplywithoverseasassets.BalancedFundAllocationsOwnershipstructureUnderlyingassetsbyregion8AgeingpopulationswilldriveREITdemandWhyREITs?–abilityfor(small)individualstoenjoycommercialrealestatereturnwithliquidity.Ageingpopulationswillincreasinglyneedincome,capitalstability&liquidity.Publicpolicywillcontinuetobeinfluencedbyageingpopulations.Markets(likeAustralia)withcompulsorypensionsavingshaveahigherallocationtorealestate.MarketswithREITshavehigherlistedrealestateallocations.PercentageofPopulation65+yearsPensionFundRealEstateAllocation9OfficeMarkets–anecdotalevidence?Itveryhardtoprove,butitsgenerallythoughthatREITshaveledtomoremutedcyclesinAustraliathanhistorically.Forexample,thiscycleAustralianofficemarketshaveexhibitedmuchmoreefficientsupplycreationthanpastcycles.AlsoAustralianvacancylower(andchangeinvacancymuchlower)thanlesssecuritisedmarkets.OfficeSupply–CapitalCityCBDs

Source:JonesLangLaSalleSource:JLL,UBSOfficevacancyratesandrentalgrowth(%)10StapledSecurities–aninvestor/developercomboTradeoffbetweendevelopmentearningsandrentalincome.Represent30%+oftheAustralianREITmarket.Two-tierarrangement,withthepassiverentalincomeassetsheldinaREITandthedevelopmentbusinessheldinacompanystructure(whichpaystax).Vehiclesareinternallymanaged.Excellentperformance.Manyareinvolvedwithurbanrenewalprograms.StapledSecurityStructure11Conclusion–awin/win?RealEstatedemandwillcontinuedrivenbystructuralshifts:moderatingequityreturns,increaseddiversification(morepensions,moreadvisedsavings)andageingpopulations.Securitisationwillalsoincreasetomeetthisdemand–moreREITmarketsandgrowthofexistingmarkets.Benefitsforinvestors:Income,capitalstability,liquidityanddiversification.Benefitsforrealestatecompanies:Moreefficientpricingofunderlyingrealestate.Benefitfortheeconomy:Moreefficientcostofcapital=improvedallocationofrealestatecapital?Urbanrenewal?Higherdegreeofcapitalrationing(fromhigherpay-outratios)=moremutedcycles?12LayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLayoutBox:Selectthisboxanduseitto:Inserttext-typetextandapplyastyleInsertaTableorMSGraphResizeanobjectLa