﹑东部风电接入和输电研究成果

EasternWindIntegrationandTransmissionStudy(EWITS)Results东部风东部风电接入和输电研究(EWITS)成果接

和输

研究()成果RenewableEnergyIntegration:可再生能源接入InternationalExperiencesandImplicationsforChina国际经验和对中国的启示Beijing,ChinaDecember2010JCharlesSmithExecutiveDirectorUWIGISOs/RTOsinNorthAmerica北美独立电力系统运营商和区域输电组织阿某省市中西部独立电力安大略独立电力系统运营商电力系统运营商系统运营商纽省系统运营商新英格兰独立电力系统运营商纽约独立电力系加州独立电力统运营商系统运营商PJM互联德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会西南电力库Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

2NorthAmericanInterconnections北美互联系统NorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation(NERC)北美电力可靠性委员会

|Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

3Assumptions:PowerSystemModelfor2024假设：2024年电力系统模型♦♦Loadsescalatedto2024basedonregional♦♦在区域负荷基础上，预测2024年的负荷水平。♦2018powerflowcase,expandedto2024♦由2018年的潮流方案，推测2024的情况。♦Keyassumptions♦主要假设：–Perpreviousstudies–Uniformstructureassumedfor5–先前的研究marketfootprints–假某省市场覆盖区有统一结构–Nocarbontaxorcap&tradeas–以不计碳排放税及碳排放限制与贸baseline线。Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

4WindPlantModelingApproach:RecreatingtheWeather风电场建模方法：“重建”天气Windplantsiting风电场选址Mesoscalemodelgrids中尺度模型网格Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

5ScenarioDevelopmentandSiting情境制定和选址♦FourDifferentSScenariosScenario3bynameplate♦四种不同情境–Three20%andone30%windscenarios三个风电占20%和一个风电占30%»

Localresourceswithlowercapacityfactoronshorewindandoffshore利用当地资源，陆上和海上风电容量系数更低。800to1,440(113)500to800(42)300to500(104)»

HighcapacityfactorwinddevelopmentintheMidwestwithlargertransmissionponentponent150to300(97)100to150(210)开发中西部风资源，风电容♦量系数高，需大量输电设备。Scenario3WindPlantSitingAlloffourscenariosrequirealotofwindandtransmission!情境三风电场选址四种情境均要求大量风能和输电能力。Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

6Scenario4-30%“AggressiveOn-andOff-Shore”情境4-30%“陆上和海上风电宏伟目标”风电场规模和场址情境4（MW）Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

7EasternWindIntegrationandTransmissionStudy(EWITS)Scenarios东部风电接入与输电研究(EWITS)情境装机容量量（MW）参考值区域情境1情境2情境3情境4Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

8120%EWITSWindPenetrationsbyScenarioEWITS中各情境下风电接入容量对比Scenario1100%Scenario2Scenario3Scenario480%60%40%20%0%MISO+MAPPSPPPJMISONENYISOTVASUBSEITotalFootprintScenario139.9%102.9%7.8%5.9%11.5%1.2%0.4%20.3%Scenario229.1%98.2%11.1%23.4%24.6%1.2%2.0%20.4%Scenario318.0%59.3%25.6%41.8%38.0%1.2%3.7%20.8%Scenario440.0%106.2%30.5%41.3%37.5%1.2%4.1%30.7%RegionBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

9What’sDifferentaboutPlanningTransmissionforWindEnergyTransmissionforWindEnergy风能的输电规划有何不同♦PlPlanningfforenergyresourcedifferenti

diff

tfromplanningforcapacityresource–

lookat8760hours♦能源资源规划不同于容量资源规♦♦♦划-着眼于8760小时。要求把输电负荷的高峰期按时间Expectshiftintimeofpeakperiodof平移至腰荷期-高峰负荷的60%。transmissionloadingtoshoulderperiods-♦♦60%ofpeakload♦最低负荷和最低常规电源出力期Newcontingencieslikelyaroundtimesof间可能发生的新的突发事故。minimumloadandminimumconventional♦执行可靠性输电设计-NERC标准generation♦Performreliabilitytransmissiondesign-♦进行风电并网研究，确定A/S需NERCcriteria♦♦♦求（爬坡率、系统运行备用、极Performwindintegrationstudyto端情况）determineA/Srequirements(ramping,LOLE和ELCC计算可能改变备用♦operatings,extremeevents)ti

t

t)裕度。LOLEandELCCcalculationsarelikelytomodifythemarginsBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

10FullConstrainedCaseAnnualLoadWeightedLMP全约束案例-年负荷权重节点边际价格Source:MISOBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

11TransmissionConcepts,not“Plans”输电概念，非“规划”♦

Looksattheendofaplanninghorizon,ratherthanthebeginning着眼于规划末期，而不是起始期。♦

Significantadditionalanalysisneededtoengineerdetailsofplan需要重点分析规划的工程细节。–ACanalysisACanalysisAC分析–Stabilityanddynamics稳定性和动态分析–Furtheroperationalassessment进一步的运行评估Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

12Overlaysfor4Scenarios四种情境的覆盖范围Scenario1Scenario3Scenario2Scenario4Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

13TransmissionRequirements输电要求♦Theconceptualtransmiissionoverlays♦规划概念中输某著名企业的覆盖区域包括多条♦consistofmultiple800kVHVDCandEHV♦800kV高压直流输电和超高压交流输电线AClines;regionalACupgradesalsoneeded路；区域交流输某著名企业同样需要升级。Siilmilarlevelsofnewtransmissionare4种情境下均需要新增相似规模的输电线neededacrossthe4scenarios;some路；某些输电元件在所有覆盖区域都很常transmissionelementsaremontoall♦overlays♦见。Themodelingindicatesthatafairamountof模拟结果表明：只要有充足的输电容量，windcanbeamodatedprovidedthat系统就能够消纳非常大规模的风电。adequatetransmissionisailable.♦Transmissionprovidescapacitybenefitsin♦输电系统本身能够提供容量效益，并大大♦itsownright,andenhancesthereliability♦提升风电的可靠性贡献。contributionofwindgenerationbya输某著名企业覆盖区域内的超高压直流输电能够measureableandsignificantamount.提高运行与可靠性效益，在此不作评估。TheEHVDCtransmissioninoverlayscouldprovideotheroperationalandreliabilitybenefitsnotevaluatedhereBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

14EvaluatingOperatingImpacts评估运行影响♦Basedonchronologicalproductionsimulations♦基于连续时间生产模拟（PROMOD）(PROMOD)–小时级间隔–Hourlygranularity–某省市场运作–Mimicmarketoperation»

通过日前计划预测负荷和预测»Day-aheadmitmenttoforecastload风电发电出力。andforecastwindgeneration♦»Re-dispatchtoactualloadandactual♦»

针对实际负荷和实际风电出力进行再调度。wind»Carryadditionalregulationandother»

进行附加调整和额外备用，以stoaddressincreasedvariability应对因风电带来的波动性和不anduncertaintyduetowindgeneration确定性。Analyzingimpactswithinthehour分析小时内的影响–Usehigh-resolutionwindandloaddata–采用高分辨率的风数据和负荷数据–Applymathematicalandstatistical–运用数学和统计学方法估计新增要techniquestoestimateincremental求。requirementsBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

15GenerationDisplaced被替代的发电量2500References1s2年发电量（rgy(TWh)GenerationEnerAnnualG15001000TWh）2000s3s450000STCoalNuclearbinedHydroCTGasIGCCSTGasOtherWindCycle燃料类型

FuelTypeBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

16WindIntegrationCosts风电接入成本风本电接入成本2009

USD)nd

Energy

(2MWH

of

Winion

Cost

$/M$6.00

20042005Reference$5.00

$4.00

$/MWh（$3.00

Scenario

1$2.00

Scenario

2D2009USD）Scenario

3$100Scenario

4Integrati$‐2006年份

YearBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

17TotalScenarioCost总成本200,000

180,000

Production

costAnn20,000

年度成本本（M$)(2009

USD

MWind

Capital

Cost160,000

140,000

120000enario

Cost

ualized

SceNew

Generation

Capital

Cost2009USSDM$）100,000

Transmission

Cost80,000

Integration

Cost60,000

Wind

Operational

Cost40,000

‐ReferenceScenario

1Scenario

2Scenario

3Scenario

4Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

18Results–Requirements研究结果-

备用需求♦

Widndvaribiliability(asfunctionofgenerationlevelandscenari)o)usetocalculateincrementalregulationamount根据风电的波动性（用发电水平与情境的函数来表示）计算新增的调节量。♦

Resultisisaprofilthtethatvarieshourlywithththeamountfofwidndgeneration研究结果可图示为大量风电接入时的小时级变化情况。（旋年变化量旋转备用的年区域Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

19MW）WindGenerationImpactons风力发电对备用的影响♦Operationalassumptionsfor2024played♦对2024年所做的运行假设在降低备importantroleinreducing用需求方面有很大影响。♦requirements♦研究某省市场区域所覆盖地理范Thegeographicsizeofthemarketareas围的假设能够保证认识到由于地理assumedinthestudyallowssubstantial多样性带来的效益。benefitsofgeographicdiversitytobe♦realized.♦通过区某省市场汇集更多的负荷Thepoolingoflargeramountsofloadand和分布式的发电资源，同样能够实♦♦discretegeneratingresourcesviaregional♦现多样性的好处。marketsalsorealizesthebenefitsof利用小时某省市场，对预测出的diversity.短期负荷与风速变化用经济的方式Withsub-hourlyenergymarketschanges进行补偿。inloadandwindthatcanbeforecastedoverashortintervalarepensatedforaveryeconomicmanner.Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

20EWITSVariabilityWithAggregationLevelEWITS不同综合出力水平下的波动性不同综合出力水平下的波动性Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

21CurtailmentbyScenarioandRegion各情境和各区域的弃风量♦rtailment(%)14.00%♦–输电阻塞Minimumgeneration10.00%–最小出力Ramp/limitations8.00%爬坡率/备用限制6.00%WindCurSPPcurtailmenthighinallbutS3♦♦除了情境3，其他并行过程都存在4.00%大量弃风2.00%“LocalWind”S3haslowestPossiblereasonsforcurtailment:Reference造成弃风的可能原因：–Transmissioncongestion12.00%Scenario1Scenario2Scenario3Scenario4curtailmentacrossfootprint♦“当地风能”情境3，其覆盖范围0.00%MI

SO/MAPPSPPPJMISONENYISOSE

RC

NITV

AS

UBTotalFootprintReference1.87%1.80%1.98%1.25%1.48%1.06%1.93%1.73%内的弃风量最小Scenario14.51%11.57%3.07%0.02%3.63%0.07%8.37%7.02%CurtailmentcausesexploredinScenario22.69%12.64%1.73%0.56%10.25%7.84%4.34%6.79%Scenario32.41%2.70%1.81%7.67%9.43%0.47%0.32%3.39%sensitivitycasesScenario48.69%12.46%8.37%11.45%9.56%6.91%9.53%9.77%弃风原因可在敏感性方案中做进一Region步探究Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

22情境（1-4）有效负荷承载能力的研究系统已有的&覆盖区的输电联络线极限ELCC（%）（阴影部分为覆盖区ELCC的新增值）StudySystemELCCScenarios(1-4)Existing&OverlayTransmissionTieLimits-ELCC(%){ShadedAreashowsIncreasedELCCofOverlay}40%35%27.7%25.4%24.1%27.3%28.0%27.0%28.3%28.1%32.8%26.6%24.8%29.8%Overlay30%30.5%25%EitiExisting26.4%20.6%24.6%19.9%24.2%23.8%20%22.7%20.2%20.4%18.8%15%16.0%10%5%0%Scenario-1SystemScenario-2SystemScenario-3SystemScenario-4SystemBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

232004Profile2005Profile2006ProfileWindwithTransmissionCanReduceOtherGenerationBuilds风电与输电系统能减少其他发电设施的建设oided

capacity

beyond

20%

assumption3500030000250002004200520000150002006g10000500001234g

20PctBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

24InSummary…结论…♦Whtatsystemoperationaliimpactsandcostsareimposedbby–风电的波动性和不确定性带来了哪些系统运行windgenerationvariabilityanduncertainty?Withlarge♦balancingareasandprehensivemarkets,thecostsof–影响和成本？由于采用大范围电力平衡区域和integrationforallscenariosislessthan$10/MWHof某省市场，所有情境下的接入成本低于风电的windorlessthan$0002/kWHofload$10/MWH

，低于负荷的$0002/kWHWhatarethebenefitsfromlongdistancetransmissionthat为接纳地理上分布的多风资源（风电）采用远accessesmultiplewindresourcesthataregeographically距离输电式有什么好处？研究结果表明，长距diverse?Thestudyresultsshowthatlong-distance(and离（大容量）输电能够帮助小的平衡区域接入highcapacity)transmissioncanassistsmallerbalancing更多风电，允的风电穿透功率；若没有areaswithwindintegration,allowingpenetrations远距离输电则是不可行的。otherwisenotfeasible.♦Whatarethebenefitsfromlongdistancetransmissionthat–采用长距离输电将偏远地区的大量风电送入城movelargequantitiesofremotewindenergytourban市市场有什么好处？偏远地区更高质量的风电markets?Thecostoftransmissioncanbeoveeby接入效益可以抵消输电成本。输电对系统鲁棒thehigherqualityofwindresourcesinremoteareas.性也有一定好处，在此未作评估。Transmissionhasothervaluefortherobustnessofthe♦systemthatwerenotevaluatedinthisstudy.–与当地风能资源相比，偏远地区风能资源有何与当地风能资源相比，偏远地区风能资源有何优势？在美国东部互联系统中，NREL中尺度数Howdoremotewindresourcesparetolocalwindresources?IntheEasternInterconnection,theNREL据表明，与东部的靠近负荷某省市的风能相meso-scaledatashowsthatthehigherqualitywindsin比，大平原上高质量风能的容量系数要高出theGreatPlainshecapacityfactors6top7%higher6~7%。海上风电场具有与大平原相当的容量系thanon-shorewindresourcesclosetothehigh-load数，但由于其基础建设成本更高，因此其发电densityurbancentersintheeast.Off-shoreplantshe成本也更高。capacityfactorsonparwithGreatPlainsresourcesbutBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

25costofenergyishigherduetohighercapitalcosts.Continued…续…♦Howmuchdoesgeographicaldiversityhelpreduce–地理的多样性能够在多大程度上减小系systemvariabilityanduncertainty?Quite统波动性和不确定性？非常的大。substantially.♦♦–风功率预测的作用和价值？在大量风电Whatistheroleandvalueofwindforecasting?With接入的情况下，风功率预测在保持电力♦significantwindgeneration,forecastingwillplaya–市场的高效性、以及在保证系统安全的keyroleinkeepingenergymarketsefficientand前提下减少系统备用方面起着至关重要reducingtheamountofscarriedwhile的作用。maintainingsystemsecuritymaintainingsystemsecurity.平衡区域合作或联合对风电波动性和不Whatbenefitdoesbalancingareacooperationor确定性管理方面有什么好处？本研究以consolidationbringtowindvariabilityanduncertainty及之前其他的研究都强调大运行区域（management?Thisandotherrecentstudies主要指负荷、发电厂和地理范围）与充reinforcetheconceptthatlargeoperatingareas-in足的输电能力相结合，是管理风力发电termsofload,generatingunits,andgeography–的最有效手段。binedwithadequatetransmission,arethemost♦effectivemeasuresformanagingwindgeneration.–风电容量置信度如何影响可靠性？风电能提高系统的充裕度，而输电系统能强Howdoeswindgenerationcapacityvalueaffect化这种提高作用。reliability?Windgenerationcancontributetosystemadequacy,andtransmissioncanenhancethatcontributioncontribution.Beijing,ChinaDec2010----

26SystemPlanningandOperationRmendationsRmendations系统规划和运行的建议♦Performdetailedwindintegration♦进行详细的风电接入研究♦♦studies♦配置更为灵活的发电和负荷技术Deploymoreflexiblegeneration♦andloadtechnologies♦改进风电场出力预测工具Improvewindplantoutput♦升级并网导则和风电厂模型forecastingtools♦Improvegridcodesandwind♦大区域范围内的风电厂总计出力♦plantmodels♦加强平衡区域的合作与区域控制Aggregatewidlndplantoutputover♦largeregions♦♦偏差（ACE）共享Improvebalancingarea明确风电对容量置信度的贡献cooperationandACEsharing♦Recognizewindcontributionsto♦经常性的举办讨论会，分享运行♦capacityvalue经验。CreateongoingforumstoshareoperatingexperienceBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

27TransmissionPlanningRmendations输电规划建议♦Developadequatetransmission♦建设足够的输电容量－－否则♦capacity–can’tmeetRPSgoals♦将不可能实现再生能源配额制withoutit目标。prehensiveregionalplanning综合的区域规划程序processes♦♦♦输电成本配置的再评估Reassessmentoftransmissioncost♦allocation♦♦–

偏僻区域的用户没有能力–CustomersinremoteregionsCusoes

eoeegos负担can’taffordit–

负荷在终端支付费用–loadpaysintheend输电成本的回收必须有更多确Morecertaintyoftransmissioncost定性recovery♦Morerobustandflexible“smart”♦更具鲁棒性和灵活性的智能电网技术，使负荷和混合电动汽gridtoenableparticipationofload车能更多参与。andPHEVBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

28NationalTransmissionPolicy国家输电政策♦Nationalpolicydebatestimulatedbytwo♦两个事件激发了关于国内政策的讨论：♦activities:♦–德克萨斯竞争性可再生能源区（–SuccessofTexasCREZprocessCREZ）的成功建立。CREZCREZ－PETITIVEPETITIVE–更多的意识到，如果不对输电系统RENEWABLEENERGYZONES进行大范围的扩建，那么将无法完–GrowingrecognitionthatRPSgoals成可再生能源配额制目标。cannotbemetwithoutsignificantRPS:

RenewablePortfolioStandardtransmissionbuild-out美国参议院去年提出了三个主要的输电ThreemajortransmissionbillsproposedinUS议案Senatelastyear.♦♦♦议案各不相同，但都有三个共同点：Alldifferentbutallhethremon♦♦elements:♦–大范围互联输电计划–Interconnection-widetransmission–以高压输电为主干、大范围成本分planning摊摊–Highvoltagebackbonewithbroadcost–政府支持的选址授权allocation–Federalbackstopsitingauthority更多的意识到输电的重要性GrowingrecognitionofcriticalneedfortransmissionBeijing,ChinaDec2010----

29MarketOperationandTransmissionPolicyRmendations某省市场运作和输电政策的建议♦Develo