全球风险研究院-公众“过度自信”、退休收入体系认知与退休规划行为研究报告-OVERCONFIDENCE,KNOWLEDGE OF THE RETIREMENT INCOME SYSTEM,AND RETIREMENT PLANNING

MARCH2026

OVERCONFIDENCE,KNOWLEDGE

OFTHERETIREMENTINCOMESYSTEM,ANDRETIREMENTPLANNING

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Overconfidence,KnowledgeoftheRetirementIncome

System,andRetirementPlanning*

Philipped’AstousHECMontréal

FrancaGlenzerHECMontréal

January13,2026

Abstract

Previousresearchshowsthatthelevelofconfidenceinone’sfinancialabilityisimportantfordecision-making,especiallyintherealmofretirementplanning.Weexpandonthisliter-aturebyusingsurveyresponsestoobjectiveandsubjectivemeasuresoffinancialliteracyandretirementknowledge.Wefindthateventhoughoverconfidentindividualsaremorelikelytostatethattheyhavearetirementplan,theyarelesslikelytohaveregisteredretirementsavings,andwhentheydo,theyholdlowerbalances.Ourfindingshighlightapotentialmechanisminwhichoverconfidenceinone’sknowledgeoftheretirementsystemraisesexpectedincomere-placementrates,which—consistentwithastandardconsumption–savingmodel—reducespri-vatesaving.Overconfidentindividualsalsohavebiasedinflationperceptionsbuttakefewerprotectiveactionstomitigatetheeffectofinflation.Finally,wefindthatoverconfidentindivid-ualsdecreasetheirscoreswithrepeatedparticipationindifferentwavesofthesurvey.Theseresultssuggestthatcalibratingconfidenceaboutone’sknowledgeoftheretirementsystemandofmacroeconomicfactorsmaybeimportantforimprovingprivateretirementsaving.

JELclassification:D14,G53,J26.

Keywords:Overconfidence,Financialliteracy,Retirement,Inflation.

*d’Astous:HECMontréal,email:

philippe.dastous@hec.ca

;Glenzer:HECMontréal,email:franca.glenzer@hec.ca.WeareverygratefultoCristinaCardenas(HECMontréal)foroutstandingresearchassistance.WethankPierre-CarlMichaud,RaymondMontizaanandseminarparticipantsatthe2025HEC-McGillWinterWorkshopandNetsparfortheirhelpfulcomments.WethankDavidBoisclairandtheteamattheRetirementandSavingsInstitutefortheirhelpdesigningandfieldingthesurvey.FundingfromtheGlobalRiskInstitute(GRI)isgratefullyacknowledged.

©2026Philipped’Astous,FrancaGlenzerThis“Overconfidence,KnowledgeoftheRetirementIncomeSystem,andRetirementPlanning”ispublishedunderlicensebytheGlobalRiskInstituteinFinancialServices(GRI).Theviewsandopinionsexpressedbytheauthor(s)arenotnecessarilytheviewsofGRI."Overconfidence,KnowledgeoftheRetirementIncomeSystem,andRetirementPlanning”isavailable

at.Permissionisherebygrantedto

reprintthe“Overconfidence,KnowledgeoftheRetirementIncomeSystem,andRetirementPlanning”onthefollowingconditions:thecontentisnotalteredoreditedinanywayandproperattributionoftheauthor(s),GRIisdisplayedinanyreproduction.Allotherrightsreserved.

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1Introduction

Aspublicpensionsanddefined-benefitplansdecline,individualsincreasinglybeartheburdentofinancetheirconsumptioninretirement(Lusardietal.,2011,Behrmanetal.,2012).Atthesametime,consumersfaceevermorecomplexfinancialchoicesinpreparingforretirement(Choietal.,2004),oftenincludingmultiplelayersofincomesourcessuchaspublicpensions,employer-sponsoredplans,andregisteredsavingsaccounts.Previousresearchhasshownthatfinanciallit-eracymattersformanyfinancialoutcomes,includingmoreeffectiveretirementplanning(LusardiandMitchelli,2007,vanRooijetal.,2011,Behrmanetal.,2012,amongothers).

Recentresearchhashighlightedimportantnuancesregardingwhatfactorsfacilitatesoundretirementplanning.First,beyondobjectiveknowledge,self-assessedknowledge–oftentermedconfidence–alsomattersforfinancialdecisions,andinsomecontextsmaymatterevenmorethanactualknowledge(Parkeretal.,2012,Andersonetal.,2017,AngrisaniandCasanova,2021,Lawrenceetal.,2024).Second,specificknowledgeabouttheretirementsystemappearstoaffectretirementplanningaboveandbeyondgeneralfinancialliteracy(Debetsetal.,2022,Boisclairetal.,2023,Castagnoetal.,2025).Todatehowever,theroleofindividuals’confidenceinretirementliteracyhasnotyetbeenaddressed.Animportantobstacletostudyingtheeffectsofobjectiveandsubjectiveretirementknowledgeonfinancialchoicesisthatveryfewsurveysprovideanobjectivesetofquestionsontheretirementincomesystem.Forthisreason,researchersoftenresorttomeasuringoverconfidenceasadifferencebetweensubjectiveknowledgeoftheretirementincomesystemandobjectivefinancialliteracy(e.g.AngrisaniandCasanova,2021).

Inthispaper,weleveragedatafromalarge-scalesurveyontheCanadianretirementincomesystem.Thesurveycollectsstandardmeasuresoffinancialliteracy,self-perceivedfinanciallit-eracy,andsocio-economiccharacteristicssuchasage,education,andincome.Crucially,italsoincludesadetailedquestionnairethatcapturesobjectiveknowledgeofallpillarsoftheretirementsystem,alongsideself-assessedknowledgeofthesystemmoregenerally.Inaddition,respondentsreportwhethertheyhavearetirementplan—acommonproxyforretirementpreparednessintheliterature—theirexpectedincomereplacementrateinretirement,andspecificactionstheyhavetakentoprepare,suchasenrollmentindefined-benefit(DB)ordefined-contribution(DC)plansandsavingintax-advantagedindividualsavingsaccounts.Finally,thesurveymeasuresrespon-

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dents’perceptionofthepreviousyear’sinflationandtheadjustmentstheymadeinresponse.

Wedefineoverconfidenceastheextenttowhichindividuals’self-assessedknowledge,rel-ativetothesampleaverage,exceedsorfallsshortoftheirdemonstratedknowledgeonobjec-tivetests.Formally,wemeasureoverconfidenceusingthedistancebetweenstandardizedself-assessedknowledgescoresandstandardizedtest-basedknowledgescores,relativetotheaverageperformanceofsurveyrespondents.Thiseffectivelybenchmarkseachindividual’sself-perceptionagainsthowtheyandothersinthesampleactuallyperformontheknowledgetests.Individualswithscoresnearzeroarewell-calibrated,recognizingeitherthattheyknoworthattheydonotknow.Negativescoresindicateunderconfidence,whereindividualsknowmorethantheythinktheydo,whilepositivescorescaptureoverconfidence,whereindividualsthinktheyknowmorethantheyactuallydo.

Weshowthatoverconfidenceinone’sknowledgeoftheretirementincomesystemincreasesthelikelihoodthatrespondentswillsaytheyhavearetirementplan.However,whenassessingthedeterminantsofactualretirementsavings,wefindthatoverconfidentindividualsarenomorelikelytohaveemployerretirementplansandarelesslikelytohaveindividualtax-advantagedretirementsavingsaccountsthanthosewithcorrectlycalibratedbeliefs.Thisraisesthequestionofwhetheroverconfidentindividualsareaswellpreparedforretirementastheythinktheyare.

Wetheninvestigatepotentialmechanismsthatcouldexplainthisdiscrepancy.Wehighlightonespecificchannelthatcouldbeatplay:overconfidenceinone’sknowledgeoftheretirementsysteminflatesperceivedincomereplacementrates.Asimplelife-cyclemodelwouldpredictthatindividualswhoexpecthighertotalincomeinretirement—whetherfrompublicprogramsorpri-vatesources—willtendtosavelessprivately.ThismechanismisrelevantintheCanadiancontext,wheretheretirementincomesystemhashistoricallydeliveredgoodreplacementratesonaverage(Boisclairetal.,2025).Atthesametime,ongoingchangesintheeconomicandpolicylandscapesuggestthatindividualsmayholddifferingexpectationsaboutthefuturegenerosityandcom-positionofretirementincome.Ourresultsareconsistentwithoverconfidentrespondents(i)ex-pectinghigheroverallincomereplacementratesand(ii)savinglessinindividualtax-advantagedaccounts,evenconditionalonobservedcharacteristics.

Wealsousetherecentsurgeininflationtotestwhetherrespondentsknowthelevelofinflation,andmeasurehowtheyrespondtoincreasedinflation.Wefindthatoverconfidentindividualsare

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lesslikelytoknowthepastyear’slevelofinflationandoverestimateinflationratesrelativetounderconfidentindividuals.Paradoxicallyhowever,theyarelesslikelytoreporthavingadjustedtoinflationpressure.Overconfidentindividualsarelesslikelytotakeprotectiveactions,suchasdecreasingsavings,reducingtheirstandardofliving,orincreasingspending.Theseresultsaresurprising,giventhatoverconfidentrespondentsdonotreportanyincomeincrease,relativetothepreviousfiscalyear.

Finally,weshowthatalthoughoverconfidentindividualsarenotmorelikelytoparticipateinmultiplewavesofthesurvey,theirscorestendtodecreasebetweentheirfirstandlastpartic-ipation.Inturn,underconfidentindividuals’scorestendtoincreasewithrepeatedparticipation.Thisisespeciallyrelevantbecauseunderconfidentindividualsarelesslikelytohandlehouse-holdfinancesandtheincreasedknowledgeisunlikelytobenefit.Finally,weshowthatalthoughoverconfidentindividualsarenotmorelikelytoparticipateinmultiplewavesofthesurvey,theirscorestendtodecreasebetweentheirfirstandlastparticipation.Inturn,underconfidentindi-viduals’scorestendtoincreasewithrepeatedparticipation.Thisisespeciallyrelevantbecauseunderconfidentindividualsarelesslikelytohandlehouseholdfinancesandtheincreasedknowl-edgeisunlikelytobenefit.Finally,weshowthatalthoughoverconfidentindividualsarenotmorelikelytoparticipateinmultiplewavesofthesurvey,theirscorestendtodecreasebetweentheirfirstandlastparticipation.Inturn,underconfidentindividuals’scorestendtoincreasewithre-peatedparticipation.Thisisespeciallyrelevantbecauseunderconfidentindividualsarelesslikelytohandlehouseholdfinancesandthusapplytheiracquiredknowledge.

Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2describesthesurvey,samplecon-struction,andvariabledefinitions,includingourmeasureofoverconfidenceinone’sknowledgeoftheretirementsystem.Section3presentsdescriptivestatisticsondemographics,literacyandknowledgescores,confidence,andinflationperceptions.Section4reportsthemainempiricalresultsonperceivedversusactualretirementpreparedness,inflationmisperceptionandbehav-ioralresponses,aswellaslearningacrossrepeatedsurveyparticipation.Section5concludesanddiscussesimplicationsforpolicyandfutureresearch.

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2DataandVariableConstruction

WeusedatafromanannualonlinesurveyconductedbytheRetirementandSavingsInstitute(RSI)atHECMontréal.ThissurveyaimstomeasurefinancialliteracyandknowledgeoftheCanadianretirementincomesystem(Boisclairetal.,2023).Ourmainresultsusenewdatacollectedinthe2024waveofthesurveybut,inadditionalresults,weexploitthefactthatwecantrackrepeatrespondentswhoshowupinmultipleofthesixsurveywavesbetween2019and2024.

2.1SurveyDesign

Tofieldthesurvey,wepartnerwithAskingCanadians,oneofthelargestwebpanelsinCanada.Thesampleofrespondentsconsistsofarandomlyselectedgroupofpanelistsaged35andabove,fromalltenCanadianprovinces.Thisagerangeincludesindividualswhoareofworkingage,andmightthusalreadyhavestartedplanningforretirementintheformofsavings,aswellasretiredindividuals.However,forthepurposeofourstudy,wedropindividualswhostatebeingretired,becausetheycannotbeactivelyplanningforretirement.

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Respondentsareinvitedbyemail,andthosewhocompletethesurveyreceiveremunerationintheformofrewardpointsredeemableattheretaileroftheirchoice.Asisstandardwithonlinepanelsurveys,thesampleisnon-probabilistic.

Thecoresurveyinstrumentconsistsofmultiplesectionsassessingbothgeneralfinancialliter-acyandspecificknowledgeoftheCanadianretirementincomesystem.Inparticular,thesurveyincludesaseriesofsixtypicalfinancialliteracyquestions,includingthe“Big3”financialliteracyquestions(Lusardietal.,2011).Thesequestionsassessbasicunderstandingofinterestcompound-ing,inflation,bondprices,debtmanagement,riskdiversificationandmortgages.ThesurveyalsoincludesaseriesofquestionsevaluatingknowledgeofthefourkeypillarsoftheCanadianretire-mentincomesystem:

1.Old-agesecurityprograms:Publicbasicincomeprograms–OldAgeSecurity(OAS)andGuaranteedIncomeSupplement(GIS);

2.Publicpension:Compulsorypubliccontributorypensionplans–CanadaPensionPlan

1Inthesurveyinstrument,althoughweadaptsomequestionstoretiredrespondents,wedonotaskthemwhethertheyhaveaplanforretirementornot.

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(CPP)orQuébecPensionPlan(QPP),dependingontheprovinceofresidenceofthere-spondent;

3.Employerplans:Employer-sponsoredretirementplans,includingdefinedbenefit(DB)anddefinedcontribution(DC)pensionplans;

4.Individualaccounts:Privatesavingsandtax-advantagedsavingsvehicles–RegisteredRe-tirementSavingsPlans(RRSPs)andTax-FreeSavingsAccounts(TFSAs).

2.2SampleCreation

Ourmainsampleisdrawnfromthe3,001respondentstotheFebruary2024waveofthesurvey.Werestrictouranalysistotheindividualswhoansweredbothself-assessedknowledgequestionssincethefocusofourstudyisonover-andunderconfidence.Wealsorestrictthesampletonon-retiredindividualswhoanswerthequestionabouthavingaretirementplanornot.Ourfinalsampleconsistsof2,159respondents.Individualscanparticipateinmorethanonewaveandthedataallowsustotrackrepeatedparticipationoversixwaves.Ourmainresultsexploitnewques-tionsaskedinthe2024surveywave,butrefinementstoouranalysisexploitrepeatedparticipationinthesurvey.

2.3MainVariables

Thesurveyinstrumentcollectssocio-demographiccharacteristicsoftherespondents,suchassex,age,education,maritalstatus,provinceofresidence,employmentstatusandfinancialinforma-tion.Initsmostrecentwave,thesurveyinstrumentallowsustodistinguishbetweenobjectiveandsubjectiveknowledge,bothforgeneralfinancialliteracyandknowledgeoftheretirementincomesystem.Inaddition,thesurveyalsocollectsinformationaboutknowledgeoftheinflationlevelandtheresponsetotherecentinflationhike.Fromthis,weconstructthefollowingvariables.

2.3.1FinancialLiteracyandKnowledgeoftheRetirementIncomeSystem

Objectivefinancialliteracyismeasuredastheshareofcorrectanswerstosixstandardfinancialliteracyquestions.Thesequestionsallowustomeasuregeneralfinancialknowledge.Thelitera-turehasshownthathouseholdswithlowerlevelsoffinancialliteracyarelesslikelytoparticipate

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infinancialmarkets(vanRooijetal.,2011),lesslikelytohavesavings(BanksandOldfield,2007),andaremorelikelytoborrowathigherinterestrates(LusardiandTufano,2015).

Objectiveknowledgeoftheretirementincomesystemismeasuredastheshareofcorrectanswersto23questionsonpublicbasicincomeprograms,compulsorypublicpensionplans,employer-sponsoredretirementplans,andprivatesavingsthroughtax-advantagedsavingsve-hicles.Intheanalysisweuseboththetotalscoreontheretirementknowledgequestions,aswellasthescoresspecifictoeachsection.Thisscorehasbeenshowntocorrelatewithretirementplan-ning,evenaftercontrollingforfinancialliteracy(Boisclairetal.,2023).

2.3.2Overconfidence

Thesurveyinstrumentcollectstheself-assessedknowledgeofindividualsregardinggeneralfi-nancialmatters,andregardingtheirknowledgeoftheCanadianretirementincomesystemspecif-ically.

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Theseself-assessedknowledgemeasuresallowustobuildoverconfidencemeasuressep-aratelyforfinancialliteracyandretirementknowledge.Wequantifyoverconfidenceasthestan-dardizeddifferencebetweenself-assessment(onscalesof1-4)andtruefinancialknowledge(onscalesof0-6and0to23forfinancialliteracyandretirementincomeknowledge,respectively).Specifically,wefollowKimetal.(2022)andLawrenceetal.(2024)indefiningoverconfidenceas:

whereSPistheself-perceptionoffinancialorretirementknowledge,TKistruefinancialorretirementknowledge,andtheexpectationistakenoverthesampleofrespondents.Thisclassifi-cationresultsin28distinctlevelsofoverconfidenceinthefinancialdomain,rangingfrom-3.0to4.2,andin92distinctlevelsofoverconfidenceintheretirementdomain,rangingfrom-3.1to3.7.

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Wealsocreateoverconfidencemeasuresspecifictoeachtopicoftheretirementincomesysteminthesameway.Becausewebenchmarktotheknowledgelevelofthesample,thosewithanover-

2Inthispaper,weusetheterm‘confidence’torefertorespondents’miscalibrationoftheirownknowledgeoftheretirementincomesystem,nottoconfidenceintheretirementsystemitself.

3Forfinancialliteracy,thereare4levelsofself-assessedknowledge,and7possibilitiesfortheobjectivescore(from0to6rightanswers).Thisgivesus28differentoverconfidencelevelsforgeneralfinancialknowledge.Forknowledgeoftheretirementincomesystem,thereare4levelsofself-assessedknowledge,and24possibilitiesfortheobjectivescore(from0to23rightanswers).Thisgivesus92differentoverconfidencelevelsforknowledgeoftheretirementincomesystem.

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confidencescoreofaroundzeroareawareoftheirabilities(theyeither“knowthattheyknow”orthey“knowthattheydon’tknow”),thosewithanegativeoverconfidencescorearewhattheliteraturecallsunderconfident(they“don’tknowthattheyknow”)andthosewithapositivescoreareoverconfident(they“don’tknowthattheydon’tknow”).

Finally,wemeasuregeneralover-andunderconfidence,usingtheaverageofthefinanciallit-eracyandretirementknowledgeoverconfidencemeasures.Ifsomeindividualsareoverconfidentinonedomain,butunderconfidentinanother,thisaggregatedconfidencescorewillcapturebothdimensionsinoneintegratedvariable.Tostudythebehaviorsofoverconfidentindividualssepa-ratelytothoseofunderconfidentindividuals,wedefineover-andunderconfidentindividualsasbeinginthetop25thandbottom25thpercentileoftheaverageconfidencedistribution,respec-tively.

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2.3.3RetirementPlanning

Subjectiveretirementreadinessismeasuredbyadummyvariablethatequalsonewhenrespon-dentsdeclarehavingafinancialplanforretirement,andzerootherwise.Thismeasurehasbeenusedinthepastasaproxyforretirementreadiness.Wealsoelicitrespondents’expectedincomereplacementrateasameasureofretirementincomeexpectations.Expectedreplacementratesarethenusedtomeasurethechannelthroughwhichoverconfidenceaboutone’sknowledgeoftheretirementincomesystemtranslatesintosavingbehavior.Objectivereadinessischaracter-izedalongtwodimensions:first,pensioncoverage,measuredashavinganemployerpensionplan,andseparatelywhethertheplanisDBorDC,andsecond,privatesavings,measuredwithadummyvariableequaltooneiftherespondenthasindividualretirementsavingsaccounts(eitherRRSPorTFSA),andthetotalamountintheseaccounts.

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2.3.4Inflation

Inflationperceptioniselicitedbyaskingrespondentswhattherecent12-monthinflationhasbeen.TheactualCanadianall-itemsCPIinflationin2023was4.5%,whichweuseasthebenchmarkto

4Ourresultsaresimilarifwegroupoverandunderconfidentindividualsatdifferentthresholdsinthedistribution.

5Althoughourdataallowsustopaintacomprehensiveportraitoftherespondents’currentsituation,registeredsavingsandRPPparticipationprovideonlyapartialpictureofretirementpreparation,astheyexcludeotherpotentialsourcesofwealthsuchashousing,businessownership,orexpectedinheritances.Moreover,ourdatacaptureonlycurrentparticipationinRPPs,withoutinformationoncontributionamountsortenure.

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measurewhetherrespondentsknowthelevelofinflation.Weconstructabinaryvariablemea-suringwhetherindividualsknowtheinflationlevelthatequalsonewhentherespondents’pointestimatefallsinthe4–5%bracket,and0otherwise.Wemeasuremisperceptionoftheinflationlevelasthedifferencebetweentherespondents’perceivedrateand4.5%,firstasthesigneddiffer-ence,andsecondasitsabsolutedifference.

Behavioralresponsestoinflationarecapturedbyasetofthreedummiesthatindicatewhetherthehouseholdreducedretirementsavings,lowereditsstandardoflivingorincreasedspending.Finally,wemeasurewhetherrespondentsexperiencedariseinnominalincomeoverthepastyear.Together,thissetofvariablesallowsustostudyhowrespondentsreactedtotherecentinflationhike.

2.3.5ParticipationandLearning

Weexploittherecurringsurveywavesandthefactthatsomeindividualshaveparticipatedinmorethanonewave.Weuseuniqueindividualidentifierstocalculatethenumberoftimesthatarespondenthasparticipatedinthesurvey.Forindividualswhoparticipatedinmorethanonewaveofthesurvey,learningismeasuredasthechangeinscoresbetweenthefirstandlastpartic-ipation.

3DescriptiveEvidence

3.1DescriptiveStatistics

Table1presentskeydescriptivestatisticsofthesample.PanelAshowsthedemographicsofre-spondents.Asiscommoninonlinesurveys,thereisaslightunderrepresentationoflower-incomeindividualsandthosewithlowereducationalattainment.PanelBpresentstheaveragesofvari-ablesusedinourretirementplanninganalysis.55.8%ofrespondentssaytheyhavearetirementplan.Amongthosewhoanswered,respondentsthinktheirincomereplacementrateinretire-mentwillbeonaverage53%oftheirlaborincome.62.2%havesomeemployerplan,butonly15.9%and22.9%haveDCandDBplans,respectively.Approximately75%ofthesamplehaveindividualtax-advantagedsavingsaccounts,forwhichtheaverageamountis$127,700.

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PanelCpresentstheaveragesofthevariablesusedinouranalysisofinflationknowledgeandtheresponsetotherecentinflationhike.About26.4%ofthesamplecancorrectlyidentifythein-flationlevel.Themeanerroris2.3percentagepoints,andthestandarddeviationissignificant.Intermsoftheresponsetoinflation,nearlyhalfofthesampleansweredhavingdecreasedsavings,decreasedstandardofliving,increasedspending,andhavinganincomeincreaseoverthelastyear,pointingtoamulit-facetedresponsetoinflation.PanelDpresentstheaveragesofvariablesusedinouranalysisoflearning.51.9%oftherespondentshaveparticipatedinmorethanonewaveofthesurvey.Thisisexpectedgiventhatthesurveyhasbeenrunningforsixconsecutivewavesonalargelystablepoolofparticipants.Theaveragechangefromthefirsttothelastpar-ticipationissmall,forbothretirementandfinancialliteracyscores.However,thelargestandarddeviationallowsustoexploitheterogeneityinlearningbetweenmultipleparticipations.

3.2FinancialLiteracyandKnowledgeoftheRetirementIncomeSystem

Figure1presentsthefinancialandretirementincomesystemliteracyscoresasthepercentageofcorrectanswers.Thedispersioninthescoresonfinancialliteracyquestionsisquitelarge,inlinewithfindingsbyLusardiandMitchell(2011).Forretirementliteracy,wepresentthescoreoneachofthefourkeypillarsoftheretirementincomesystem.

Werunaregressionoftheliteracyscoresonkeypersonalcharacteristicstoassesswhichper-sonalcharacteristicspredictfinancialandretirementliteracyinoursample.Panel(a)ofFigure2presentsselectedcoefficients,whilethefullsetofresultsarepresentedinAppendixTableA1.Whilethepredictorsaffectbothliteracydomainsinthesamedirection,theirmagnitudesdiffersubstantially.Notably,womenexhibitlowerfinancialliteracyscoresthanmenbutshowamuchsmallergapinretirementliteracy,suggestingthatretirementknowledgemaybelessdependentonnumeracyskillsthattypicallydrivegenderdifferencesinfinancialliteracy.Agehasastrongpositiverelationshipwithbothliteracytypes,withindividualsaged55andaboveshowingpar-ticularlybetterresultsinretirementliteracy.Incomeeffectsarepronouncedforbothdomains,withhigherearnersconsistentlyoutperforminglower-incomegroups.Educationshowstheex-pectedpositivegradient,withbachelor’sdegreeholderssignificantlyoutperformingthosewithhighschooleducationorless.

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3.3MeasuresofOverconfidence

WeshowthefulldistributionofconfidenceinAppendixFigureA2.Thedistributionofboththefinancialliteracyandtheretirementliteracyoverconfidenceshowthatwhilethemajorityofre-spondentsareawareoftheirability,therearemanywhounderoroverestimatetheirabilities.Todeterminewhatpersonalcharacteristicsofrespondentsinoursamplepredictoverconfidenceinfinancialandretirementliteracy,werunaregressionoftheoverconfidencemeasuresonkeypersonalcharacteristics.Panel(b)ofFigure2presentsselectedcoefficients,whilethefullsetofresultsarepresentedinAppendixTableA2.Theseresultsrevealdistinctpatternsthatdifferfromtheobjectiveknowledgedeterminants.Womenshowloweroverconfidenceinbothdomains,sug-gestingtheyaremoreaccurateincalibratingtheirself-assessedknowledgerelativetotheiractualperformance.Ageexhibitsanegativerelationshipwithoverconfidence,indicatingthatolderindi-vidualsarelesspronetooverestimatingtheirabilities.Incomelevelshavelessclearassociationswithoverconfidence,withonlythehighestearners(120k+)showingoverconfidenceinfinancialliteracy.Pensionplanparticipation(DBandDCplans)showsmixedeffects,butrespondentsthathaveaDBplanshowoverconfidenceinretirementliteracy.Thesepatternssuggestthatovercon-fidencedoesnotonlyreflectknowledgedeficitsbutrepresentsadistinctphenomenonthatvariessystematicallyacrossdemographicgroups,withimplicationsfortargetingfinancialeducationandconfidencecalibrationinterventions.

Tofurtherassesshowaccuraterespondents’subjectiveassessmentoftheirfinancialandliter-acyknowledgeis,weplotinAppendixFigureA1objectiveandsubjectiveknowledge.Thex-axisshowstheself-assessedknowledge,ratedona4-pointscalefrom“no