估值已反映法拉利式重置-伯恩斯坦

1April2026

GlobalLuxuryGoods

Hermès:Valuationsalreadydiscounta'Ferrarireset'

Hermèsisseeminglyexperiencingfadingmomentum:ThesecondarymarketpriceofHermèsiconicproductshasnormaIizedposta2022peak,inIinewithotherpeericons(e.g.theRoIexDaytona-seeHermès:TheSecondhandPricingTracker-MarI26).In-storetrafficfromour“mega-transect”isrecedinginChinaat-25%一incontrastwithdirectpeers:

ChaneI+130%,Dior+139%(seeGIobaILuxuryGoodsMega-transect:StrongLNY2026foottraffic).1Q26EexpectationshavereducedtoMSDpositiveinthepastweek.

Therecouldbeseveraldifferentexplanationswhythisisthecase–fromthemildesttothemostsevere:(A)HermèsmaysimpIybeshortofstockandmayprefertostartthe

yearatamoresubduedpacein1Q,ratherthanendtheyearonaIowin4Q;(B)Hermèsmaybeovershadowedbythemanybrands一incIudingdirectpeers一thathavebroughtnewcreativedirectorsandnewideastothemarketin2H25(seeGIobaILuxuryGoods:

TheHandbagPrice&MixBarometer-ChaneIIsreadacrosstoHermès);(C)HermèsmayberesistingbetterthanmosttoanoveraIIgIobaIdemanddeteriorationbutmaynotbedoing

thisforever一andmaybeeventuaIIysuccumbingtoit;(D)Hermèsmaybeexperiencinga

strainofits“growthformuIa”一eventuaIIysuccumbingtoaFerrari-Iikereset.Ourdiagnosisisleaningtothebenign,withatemporaryecIipseIargeIyduetoacombinationof

consumerdistraction,moredifficuItcomps,and一possibIy一tacticaIuseofinventory.

Valuationsarealreadydiscountinga‘Ferrarireset’.BothHermèsandFerrari

estabIishedapost-pandemicvaIuationpeakinFeb,25(at59xand53xNTMP/E).BothhavenowfaIIen~25turnsto33xand29x,butHermèsisnowtrading>1.4s.d.beIowits10Y

averageP/E,FerrarionIy1s.d.beIow.

WeseetwomajorstructuraldifferenceswhencomparingHermèsandFerrari:

HermèsstiIIhasasignificant“untappedpricingreservoir”(seeGIobaILuxuryGoods:TheUntappedPriceIncreaseReservoir)reIativetoFerrari一whichpotentiaIIypushedvoIumesandpricing,particuIarIyfornewerhybridmodeIssuchastheSF90and296GTB/S,aggressiveIyinrecentyears(uItimateIyexperiencingstressinresaIevaIues).

ContrarytoFerrariandpotentiaIstructuraItechnoIogydisruptionfromeIectricvehicIesandautonomousdriving,HermèsseemsimmunefromcategorydisruptionaItogether.

Weareequallynotconvincedofan“endofluxury”thesis一whichcouIdjustifybeingnegativeonthemoststructuraIIyappeaIingnameinthesector:Forsure,theChinesearefacingareaIestatecrisis,whichtakesyearstoresoIve一butIasttimewechecked,ChinesedemandwasincrementaIIyreviving,aIbeitonfragiIeconsumerfeeIgood(seeGIobaI

LuxuryGoods:Chinesedemanddynamics).FurtherweaIthandincomepoIarizationcouIdstresstheestabIishedmega-brandIuxurygoodsgrowthformuIa一butHermèsshouIdbeequippedbetterthanmostsoftIuxurypeerstonavigatethisnewenvironment

ItisdifficultneverthelesstobepositiveonHermèsshort-term:ManyIong-onIy

investorswouIdbekeentobuyHermèsonthecheap,buttheyhavebeensittingonthe

sideIineswaitingforcIearersignsofagIobaIdemandrevivaI一the6ThirdGuIfWar,has

madethemevenmorecautious.Short-terminvestorshavebeendominatingtheshare

priceactionofIuxurygood,butaweakstartto2026wouIdonIyreinforcetheirapproachofshortingHermèswhiIeoverexposingtoseIf-heIpstories一primariIyLVMHandKering.

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.

FirstPubIished:01Apr202605:45UTCCompIetionDate:01Apr202605:26UTC

LucaSolca+41582723126Iuca.soIca@1ApriI2026

BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE

31Mar

2026

TTM

AdjustedEPSAdjustedP/E(x)

Ticker

Rating

Cur

CIosing

Price

Target

ReI.

Perf.

Cur

2025A2026E2027E

Price

2025A2026E2027E

RMS.FP(Hermes)

O

EUR

1,609.00

2,250.00

(40.8)%

EUR

43.1245.1153.4037.335.730.1

OLD

2,650.00

45.6653.85

MC.FP(LVMH)

O

EUR

463.10

685.00

(26.8)%

EUR

26.0722.7322.9617.820.420.2

KER.FP(Kering)

M

EUR

256.60

235.00

26.6%

EUR

4.357.1810.5259.035.724.4

EDME

1,447.16

PRICETARGETCHANGE/ESTIMATECHANGEINBOLD

O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspended

MC.FPbaseyearis2024;

Source:BIoomberg,BernsteinestimatesandanaIysis.

INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS

ItisdifficulttobepositiveonHermèsintheshort-term:ManyIong-onIyinvestorswouIdbekeentobuyHermèsonthe

cheap,buttheyhavebeensittingonthesideIineswaitingforcIearersignsofagIobaIdemandrevivaI-the6ThirdGuIfWar’hasmadethemevenmorecautious.Short-terminvestorshavebeendominatingthesharepriceactionofIuxurygood,butaweakstartto2026wouIdonIyreinforcetheirapproachofshortingHermèswhiIeoverexposingtoseIf-heIpstories-primariIyLVMHandKering.

Wenotethataprotracted‘ThirdGulfWar’scenariohasyettobefactoredintosell-sidefinancialforecasts.WeupdateourforecaststoaccountforrecentcompanycommentaryandFX.WenowseeGrouporganicgrowthat+8.1%in1Q26E(vs.

VisibIeAIphaconsensusestimatesat+7.9%),withthequarter’sgrowthweigheddownbyFranceandtheMiddIeEast.

WeadjustourEBIT%forecaststoincorporatereportedfiguresprovidedinHermès’annuaIreport,trimour1H26EEBIT%forecaststoaccountforIowersaIesintheMiddIeEast,butIeaveourforecastsfortherestofFY26EIargeIyunchanged-wedeferanyupdatestoforecastsfornow,givenpersistentuncertaintyaroundtheIengthandscopeofthe6ThirdGuIfWar’.

WeforecastGrouporganicgrowthof+9.7%inFY26Evs.consensusat+8.8%.Lower1Q26EgrowthforecastsarepartiaIIyoffsetbyhigherFXexpectationsfortherestoftheyear,Ieadingtoa-1.2%faIIinourFY26EEPSforecasts.OurEPSforecastsarein-Iinewithconsensus.

Webelievevaluationsarealreadydiscountinga‘Ferrarireset’.HermèshasseenitssharepricefaIIby-21.5%overthe

pastmonth.BIoombergconsensusEPSestimatesforFY26EandFY27EhavefaIIenby-1.2%and-0.4%overthesameperiod,IikewiseforVisibIeAIpha.NTMEPSforecastshaveactuaIIyrisen+0.25%astheNTMwindowmechanicaIIyroIIsforward.TheNTMP/EmuItipIe,ontheotherhand,hasfaIIenby-21.7%overMarch’26,from42.7xatthestartofthemonthto33.9xattheendofthemonth-refIectingacoIIapseininvestorconfidenceintheshort-term.

WenowvaIueHermèsonatarget3.2xreIativeP/EmuItipIetotheMSCIEurope,appIiedtoabIendedNTM+1forwardEPS

forecast(downfrom3.5xpreviousIy).Thisisequivalenttoa40xNTM+1P/E(vs.45xpreviousIy),in-Iinewithits10YaveragereIativeP/EmuItipIe,andcominginjustbeIowonestandarddeviation(1s.d.)ofits10YaverageNTMP/E.HermèsIast

maintainedastabIevaIuationatthisIeveIbetween2017and2018(seeExhibit7toExhibit13).

WecontinuetorateHermèsOutperform,PT€2,250.00.

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP2

LucaSolca+41582723126luca.solca@1April2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP3

DETAILS

Hermèsisseeminglyexperiencingfadingmomentum:ThesecondarymarketpriceofHermèsiconicproductshas

normalizedposta2022peak,inlinewithotherpeericons(e.g.theRolexDaytona-seeHermès:TheSecondhandPricing

Tracker-Mar'26).In-storetrafficfromour“mega-transect”isrecedinginChinaat-25%–incontrastwithdirectpeers:Chanel+130%,Dior+139%(seeGlobalLuxuryGoodsMega-transect:StrongLNY2026foottraffic).1Q26Eexpectationshave

reducedtomid-singledigitspositiveinthepastweek.

EXHIBIT1:ThesecondarymarketpriceofHermèsiconicproductshasnormalizedposta2022peak

HermèsBirkin,Kelly,MiniKelly,&KellyPochette

ResalePremium(volumeweightedaverage)

2.60x

2.40x

2.20x

2.00x

1.80x

1.60x

1.40x

1.20x

1.00x

2.4x

2.4x

2.3x

2.3x

2.1x

2.2x

2.1x

2.0x

2.1x2.0x2.0x2.2x

1.9x

1.8x1.7x

1.8x

1.8x

1.8x

2.01x.81x8x1.8x1.8x

1.7x

1.83x

1.9x1.7x

1.7x

1.8x

1.6x

1.6x

1.8x

1.8x

1.4x

1.6x

1.3x

1.6x1.6x1.5x

1.4x

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

1.2x

Source:Sotheby's,Christie's,CherrySang,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

FIGURE1:Thishas,however,comein-linewithotherpeericonssuchastheRolexDaytona

3.5x

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

ResalePricePremiumComparisons

RolexCosmographDaytona"Panda"(EU)vs.

HermèsBirkin,Kelly,MiniKelly&KellyPochette(Global)

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

RolexDaytonaHermèsExpandedTracker

Source:Sotheby's,Christie's,CherrySang,Chrono24,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

LucaSolca+41582723126luca.solca@1April2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP4

EXHIBIT2:Hermèswasanotableoutlierinourrecent‘mega-transect’series,withtrafficdownYoYintheweekendprecedingChineseNewYear2026,evenastrafficatpeersChanelandDior(ownedbyLVMH)surged

SoftLuxuryBrands,ByGroup

Jan-23

Feb-24

Jan-25

Feb-26

YoY

change

YoY

change%

Chanel

462

289

81

186

105

130%

Burberry

71

37

30

59

29

97%

LVMH

1,267

626

300

476

176

59%

Richemont

8

2

4

6

2

50%

SoftLuxuryTotal

2,800

1,325

757

1,096

339

45%

BrunelloCucinelli

11

0

12

16

4

33%

Moncler

162

125

42

53

11

26%

Kering

335

105

71

87

16

23%

PradaGroup

61

40

80

84

4

5%

Hermès

203

47

68

51

-17

-25%

Ferragamo

12

0

6

4

-2

-33%

Zegna

12

1

0

0

0

n.a.

Source:Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT3:Growthexpectationsfor1Q26ehaveslidfromDDtoaslowasMSDoverthepastfewweeks

HermèsGroupOrganicGrowthForecasts

(in%,BloombergConsensus)

13

12

11

10

9

Downbeatcommentaryfrom

thecompanyhasledtoaslide

in1Q26egrowthforecasts

8

7

6

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

Jan-25

2Q26e

3Q26e

4Q26e

1Q26e

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysis

LucaSolca+41582723126luca.solca@1April2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP5

Therecouldbeseveraldifferentexplanationswhythisisthecase–fromthemildesttothemostsevere:(A)Hermèsmaysimplyshortofstockandmayprefertostarttheyearatamoresubduedpacein1Q,ratherthanendtheyearonalowin4Q;(B)Hermèsmaybeovershadowedbythemanybrands–includingdirectpeers–thathavebroughtnewcreativedirectorsandnewideastothemarketin2H25(seeGlobalLuxuryGoods:TheHandbagPrice&MixBarometer-Chanel'sreadacross

toHermès);(C)Hermèsmayberesistingbetterthanmosttoanoverallglobaldemanddeteriorationbutmaynotbedoing

thisforever–andmaybeeventuallysuccumbingtoit;(D)Hermèsmaybeexperiencingastrainofits“growthformula”–

eventuallysuccumbingtoaFerrari-likereset.Ourdiagnosisisleaningtothebenign,withatemporaryeclipselargelyduetoacombinationofconsumerdistraction,moredifficultcomps,and–possibly–tacticaluseofinventory.

EXHIBIT4:Hermèshassometimespointedtothinin-quarterinventorylevelstohelpexplainlowerthanexpectedgrowthatitsmainLeatherGoodsdivision

HermèsLeatherGoodsOSG

Beat/Missvs.BBGConsensus(inbps)

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

-500

GrowthmissesatHermèshavebeenblamedonlowinventorylevelsinthepast

-1,000

-1,500

-2,000

BeatMiss

Source:Bloomberg,companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT5:Alternatively,Hermèsmaycontinuetoresistanoveralldeteriorationofglobaldemand...

HermèsGroupOSGagainstIndustryOSG

(1Q14to4Q25)

RMSDivisionalGrowth

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

2Q231Q22

3Q22

4Q221Q23R²=0.2988

2Q22

4Q14244Q23

4Q203

EQ\*jc3\*hps11\o\al(\s\up1(Q),1)

EQ\*jc3\*hps11\o\al(\s\up1(23),Q)

143Q19

2Q24

3Q243Q41Q41

EQ\*jc3\*hps11\o\al(\s\up3(2),9)

1QQ119941Q181Q1

3Q202Q112525111Q153Q

EQ\*jc3\*hps11\o\al(\s\up4(1),2)

EQ\*jc3\*hps11\o\al(\s\up4(8),Q)

17

4Q17

-10%0%10%20%30%

IndustryOrganicGrowth(ex.RMS)

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT6:…butasrecentgrowthhasshown,itisunlikelytodosoforever

HermèsGroupOSGlessIndustryOSG

40%

30%

Anti-corruption

crackdowninChina

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

LVMHannouncesithadhadacquireda14%stake

inHermès

Decliningmomentuminmorerecentquarters

1Q04

1Q05

1Q06

1Q07

1Q08

1Q09

1Q10

1Q11

1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

1Q15

1Q16

1Q17

1Q18

1Q19

1Q20

1Q21

1Q22

1Q23

1Q24

1Q25

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

LucaSolca+41582723126luca.solca@1April2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP6

Valuationsarealreadydiscountinga‘Ferrarireset’.BothHermèsandFerrariestablishedapost-pandemicvaluationpeakinFeb’25(at59xand53xNTMP/E).Bothhavenowfallen~25turnsto33xand29x,butHermèsisnowtrading>1.4s.d.belowits10YaverageP/E,Ferrarionly1s.d.below.

EXHIBIT7:WebelieveFerrariservesasausefulreferencepointforinvestorsassessingHermès’valuation-thecompaniestradedintandemandoppositionoverthecourseofthepost-pandemicyears

80x

70x

60x

50x

40x

30x

20x

10x

0x

HermèsandFerrariNTMP/ERatio

January2016toMarch2026

30x

25x

20x

15x

10x

5x

0x

-5x

-10x

-15x

Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

RMS-RACEPremium(RHS)HermèsFerrariRMS-RACE10YAverage

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT8:BothFerrariandHermèsenjoyedapost-2022peakinvaluationsinFebruary2025(oneworkingdayapart).However,Hermèshashistoricallytradedata7-8turnpremiumtoFerrari

HermèsandFerrariNTMP/ERatio

January2025toMarch2026

80x

70x

60x

50x

40x

30x

7.7x

20x

10x

0x

30x

25x

20x

15x

10x

5x

0x

-5x

-10x

-15x

RMS-RACE(RHS)Ferrari

Hermès

RMS-RACE10YAvg.

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT9:Ferrarithenexperienceda25turndeclineinvaluationsfollowingaresetingrowthexpectations.

Hermèsprovedmoreresilientuntilearly-2026.Thegapobservedover2H25hasnowlargelyclosed

HermèsandFerrariNTMP/ERatio

IndexedtoPost-PandemicPeak(=100)

120

100

57

80

BothHermèsandFerrari

reachedapost-pandemicpeak

valuationaroundChineseNew

Year2025

60

53

40

20

0

HermèsFerrari

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

LucaSolca+41582723126luca.solca@1April2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP7

Webelieveinvestorscouldalsoturntohistoricalvaluationsasareferencepointforwherevaluationsmayeventuallysettle

EXHIBIT10:Wenotethatreturningtothe5Yaveragemaybeheroicinthenear-term...

HermèsNTMP/E-5YAverage

80x

70x

60x

50x

40x

30x

20x

10x

0x

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

48.3

33.2

HermèsNTMP/E10YAverage±1s.d.

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT12:Ferrari’svaluationhistory,thoughshorter,mayalsoprovideausefulreferencepointtoinvestorswhenassessingHermès

FerrariNTMP/E-5YAverage

60x

50x

40x

41.0

30x

29.3

20x

10x

0x

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

FerrariNTMP/E5YAverage±1s.d.

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT11:Hermèssawvaluationssettleat~31xbetween2012to2015and35-40xbetween2017to2019

HermèsNTMP/E-10YAverage

80x

70x

60x

50x

40x

30x

20x

10x

0x

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

44.6

33.2

HermèsNTMP/E10YAverage±1s.d.

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT13:Hermèshasexperiencedamorepunitivevaluationcompressionvs.Ferrari,wherevaluationshavesettled1s.d.belowthe10Yaverage

FerrariNTMP/E-10YAverage

60x

50x

40x

36.8

30x

29.3

20x

10x

0x

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

FerrariNTMP/E10YAverage±1s.d.

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

LucaSolca+41582723126luca.solca@1April2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP8

WeseetwomajorstructuraldifferenceswhencomparingHermèsandFerrari:Hermèsstillhasasignificant“untappedpricingreservoir”(seeGlobalLuxuryGoods:TheUntappedPriceIncreaseReservoir)relativetoFerrari–whichpotentially

pushedvolumesandpricing,particularlyfornewerhybridmodelssuchastheSF90and296GTB/S,aggressivelyinrecentyears(ultimatelyexperiencingstressinresalevalues).ContrarytoFerrariandpotentialstructuraltechnologydisruptionfromelectricvehiclesandautonomousdriving,Hermèsseemsimmunefromcategorydisruptionaltogether.

EXHIBIT14:WenotethatFerrari’sinitialhybridmodels-theSF90and296GTB/S-seemtorepresenta

disproportionateshareofcarslistedonFerrari’spre-ownedwebsite,particularlywhencomparedto‘high-volume’entry-pricedmodelssuchasthePortofino,thePortofinoM,andtheRoma

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

VehicleLines(Base+Aperta)ListedonFerrari'sPre-OwnedWebsite,byproductionyear

Allcountrieswithadedicated''website-Dataasof19Mar'26

296

SF90

20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

458FFF12berlinettaCalifornia488GTC4Lusso812Portofino

SF90F8RomaPortofinoM296Purosangue12Cilindri

Weexcludedataforspecials,limitededitionvehicles,ortrackcars(e.g.LaFerrari,296Challenge),andcombinedataforcoupeanddrop-top/apertamodels(e.g.the

SF90andSF90Spider)

Source:,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT15:Ferraristartedtoreportshipmentsbypowertrain(ICEvs.hybrid)in2022...

FerrariReportedShipments

ByFinancialYear,byPowertrain

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

42%49%

56%

78%

98%

83%93%

58%

51%44%

22%

<5%

<20%<10%

2019202020212022202320242025

nHybridaICE

2019to2021volumesharesareuppermostestimates-Ferraristartedreporting

deliveriesbypowertrainin2022

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT16:…whichweuseasanexpected(albeitimperfect)distributionforpre-ownedmodels

Pre-OwnedFerrarisListedOnline

ByManufacturingYear,byPowertrain

100%

90%

35%

44%

80%

52%

49%

70%

69%

60%

90%

99%

50%

40%

65%

56%

30%

48%

51%

20%

31%

10%

10%

1%

2019

0%

2020

2022

2024

2021

2025

2023

HybridICE

Notethatmanufacturingyearcoulddifferfromshipment/deliveryyear,

identifyingSF90andthe296GTB/Sashybridmodels

Source:,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

LucaSolca+41582723126Iuca.soIca@1ApriI2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP9

EXHIBIT17:MuchlikeFerrari,resalepricesforlargerversionsofHermès’iconichandbags(e.g.theBirkin30andKelly28)havecomeunderpressureinthepost-pandemicyears...

4.5x

4.0x

3.5x

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

0.5x

0.0x

HermèsBirkin,Kelly,MiniKelly,andKellyPochette

ResalePremium(BERNeResalePremiumvolume-weightedaverage)

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

Birkin25Birkin30Kelly25Kelly28MiniKellyIIKellyPochetteBERNeResalePremium

Source:SothebyIs,ChristieIs,CherrySang,BernsteinanaIysisandestimates

EXHIBIT18:…unlikeFerrari,however,webelieveHermèsfacesnostructuralchallengesfromperceivedcategorydisruption-demandhasmerelyshiftedtosmallerhandbagssuchastheMiniKellyIIandKellyPochette,as

observedinthegrowingshareofsmallerformatsinauctionlistings

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

HermèsBirkin,Kelly,MiniKelly&KellyPochetteResaleVolumeShare

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

Birkin25TogoBirkin30TogoKelly25EpsomKelly28EpsomMiniKelly20EpsomKellyPochetteSwift

Source:SothebyIs,ChristieIs,CherrySang,BernsteinanaIysisandestimates

Seeour6Hermès:TheSecondhandPricingTracker’seriesformoredetaiIonthisdata.SeeupdatesinSepI25,OctI25,NovI25,DecI25(withafocusontheMiniKeIIyII),FebI26andmostrecentIywithARoIexface-to-faceinMarch2026

LucaSolca+41582723126luca.solca@1April2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP10

Weareequallynotconvincedofan“endofluxury”thesis–whichcouldjustifybeingnegativeonthemoststructurally

appealingnameinthesector:Forsure,theChinesearefacingarealestatecrisis,whichtakesyearstoresolve–butlasttimewechecked,Chinesedemandwasincrementallyreviving,albeitonfragileconsumerfeelgood(seeGlobalLuxuryGoods:Chinesedemanddynamics).Furtherwealthandincomepolarizationcouldstresstheestablishedmega-brandluxurygoodsgrowth

formula–butHermèsshouldbeequippedbetterthanmostsoftluxurypeerstonavigatethisnewenvironment

EXHIBIT19:Chineseconsumersseemtobeexperiencingtheirfirstseriouscrisisafterthreedecadesofstrong

growth,sappingdemandfromacohortofmiddle-classconsumers.ButastheexperienceintheWestsuggests,crisesdonotlastforever

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

ChinaGDPGrowthandDeltavs.USA(1990-2024)

Chinastillgrewat

HSD%duringtheAsianFinancialCrisis...

...whiletheGFChardlyderailedgrowth...

...butthepost-pandemic

yearshaveseenChina's

GDPgrowthsignificantly

compressonbothabsoluteandrelativetermsinwhatseemslikeanewlong-termtrend

ChinaGDPGrowth

Chinavs.USDelta

Source:WorldBank,Bernsteinanalysis

ItisdifficultneverthelesstobepositiveonHermèsshort-term:Manylong-onlyinvestorswouldbekeentobuyHermèsonthecheap…butlong-onlyinvestorshavebeensittingonthesidelineswaitingforclearersignsofaglobaldemandrevival–thethirdGulfWarhasmadethemevenmorecautious.Short-terminvestorshavebeendominatingthesharepriceactionofluxurygoods…aweakstartoftheyearbyHermèswouldonlyreinforcetheirapproachofshortingHermèswhileoverexposingtoself-helpstories–primarilyLVMHandKering

LucaSolca+41582723126luca.solca@1April2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP11

APPENDIX

Bernstein

New

Bernstein

Old

NewvsOld(bps)

Consensus

NewvsConsensus

2026

2027

2026

2