首席经济学家的展望+2026年5月(英)

CentrefortheNew

EconomyandSociety

ChiefEconomists’Outlook

WJRLD

ECC)NMIC

FORUM

INSIGHTREPORTMAY2026

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay2

Images:GettyImages,Unsplash

Contents

Executivesummary4

1Ashiftingeconomicoutlook5

Volatilityincreases7

AIsentimentiscooling7

2Disruptionanditsimplications9

Industryimpacts10

Regionalimpacts11

3Growth,policyandgeoeconomicoutlook13

Regionalgrowthandpolicyexpectations13

Globalbusinessenvironment20

Contributors21

Endnotes24

Disclaimer

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©2026WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformation

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ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay3

May2026

ChiefEconomists’Outlook

Thisbriefingbuildsonthelatestpolicydevelopmentresearchaswellas

consultationsandsurveyswithleadingchiefeconomistsfromboththepublicandprivatesectors,organizedbytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety.

Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontoursofthecurrenteconomic

environmentandidentifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-makersandbusinessleadersinresponsetothecompoundingshockstotheglobaleconomyfromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.

Thesurveyfeaturedinthisbriefingwasconductedfrom6Aprilto17April2026.

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay4

Executivesummary

IntheMay2026editionoftheChiefEconomists’

Outlook,sentimentamongsurveyedchief

economistsregardingglobaleconomicprospects

hasdeteriorated.Inthesurvey,89%ofrespondentsanticipateglobalgrowthoverthenext12monthstoweaken,with21%expectingasignificantlyweakeroutlook.TheescalationofconflictintheMiddle

East,includingtheclosureoftheStraitofHormuz,hasdisruptedglobalsupplychains,elevatedpricesforaffectedgoodsandsignificantlyincreased

uncertaintyandvolatility.

Inflationarypressuresareexpectedtointensify,

with94%ofsurveyedchiefeconomistsanticipatinghigherglobalinflationinthecomingyear.Energy

andfoodpricesareidentifiedasprimarydrivers,

withsupplyshocksprojectedtohavelasting

effects.While58%ofrespondentsdonotseea

globalrecessionasimminent,therearelimited

expectationsofincreasedeconomicresilienceintheshortterm.Volatilityisexpectedtorise,withmost

chiefeconomistsanticipatingfluctuationsindebtandequitymarkets.

Artificialintelligence(AI)remainsakeydriverof

optimism,withover90%ofchiefeconomists

surveyedexpectingincreasedadoptioninthenextyear.However,expectationsregardingthespeed

andbreadthofproductivitygainsaremoderating,

withbroaderbenefitsexpectedtotakelongerto

materializethanpreviousforecastsbythecommunity.

Regionaloutlooksremaindivergent.TheUSand

Indiaareexpectedtomaintainmoderatetostronggrowth,supportedbyinvestmentandconsumption,butfaceinflationarypressures.China’soutlookhasimproved,whileEurope’sgrowthprospectshave

weakenedamidenergyshocksandstagflationrisks.South-EastAsiashowsresiliencebutisexposedtoenergyandfoodimportvulnerabilities.TheMiddleEastandNorthAfricafacesharpdeteriorationin

growthandemployment,whiletheoutlookforSub-SaharanAfricaandLatinAmericaholdssteady.

Multinationalcompaniesarereassessingstrategiesinresponsetothechangedrisklandscape.The

US,IndiaandSouth-EastAsiaareseenasthe

mostattractivebusinessenvironments,driven

byscale,flexibilityandsupply-chainpositioning.

Europeremainscompetitiveduetoregulatory

predictabilityandconsumerdemand,whileChina’sintensecompetitionandslimmarginstemperits

appeal.Sub-SaharanAfricaandtheMiddleEast

andNorthAfricaarelessattractiveformultinationalsatpresent,reflectinginfrastructureconstraintsandgeopoliticalrisks.

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay5

1

Ashifting

economicoutlook

IntheMay2026ChiefEconomists’Outlook,themoodhasdarkenedconsiderably.Ofthechief

economistssurveyed,89%anticipateglobal

growthoverthenext12monthstoweaken,with21%expectingasignificantlyweakeroutlook.

TheconflictintheMiddleEastandtheongoing

disruptionsintheStraitofHormuzhaveerased

thecautiousoptimismofthebeginningoftheyear,

assupplyshortagesoffuel,fertilizerandother

essentialgoodsripplethroughtheglobaleconomy.Againstabackdropofgeoeconomicconfrontationanddeepuncertainty,theglobalbusiness

environmentisadjustingtonewrealities.Artificialintelligence(AI)adoptioncontinuestoproceedunevenly,withsignificantopportunitiesandrisksemergingintheprocess.

Figure1:Theglobaleconomicoutlook

Lookingtothenext12months,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionoftheglobaleconomy?

Shareofrespondents(%)

41

41

17

May24

9

54

37

Sep24

42

9

42

3

May23

19

28

47

6

Jan26

17

28

56

Jan25

23

20

53

3

Jan24

11

17

69

3

Sep25

8

3

68

21

May26

MuchweakerSomewhatweakerUnchangedSomewhatstrongerMuchstronger

61

39

May25

100

3

50

0

50

100

Note:ChiefEconomistsSurveysareconducted7–8weeksaheadofthelaunchofanewChiefEconomists’Outlook.InpreviousMayeditions,chiefeconomistslookedattheremainderoftheyear.Inothereditions,theoutlookfortheyearaheadisgiven.Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurveysandOutlooks.(May2023–May2026).

Globaltradecontinuestoshowremarkable

resilienceinthefaceofconstantdisruption.After

arecordyearin2025,growingby7.5%to$35

trillion,preliminarydatapointstowardsacontinuedexpansioningoodstradeandapotentialslowdowninservices.1Theoutlookiscautious,however,withrelativelyweaktradegrowthinearly2026driven

byhigherpricesratherthanhighervolumesand

ongoingtensionsintheMiddleEastcastingalongshadowoverthesecondhalfoftheyear.2Global

foreigndirectinvestment(FDI)increasedby14%

to$1.6trillionin2025,thoughthisexpansionwaslargelyindevelopingeconomies.3Ahighlyuncertaininvestmentoutlookfor2026nowseemsallbut

certain,withgeopoliticaltensionsflaringupandgeoeconomicfragmentationdeepening.4

Figure2:Globalinflation

Lookingatthenext12months,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeNeitheragreenordisagreeAgreeStronglyagree

Globalinflationwillrise55539

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(May2026).

Withenergyandfoodmakingupasignificant

shareofhouseholdconsumptionaroundthe

world,risingpricesinthesecategoriesarelikelytopushglobalinflationhigher.Intotal,94%ofchiefeconomistssurveyedagreeorstronglyagreethatglobalinflationwillriseinthenext12months.Evenintheoptimisticscenarioofashortconflictinthe

MiddleEast,theInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)anticipatesariseinglobalinflationfrom4.1%in

2025to4.4%in2026.5Recentevidencepointstoastronguptickininflationinseveralmajoreconomies,asdetailedinthegrowth,policyandgeoeconomicoutlooksectionofthisreport.

Figure3:Recessionandresilience

Lookingatthenext12months,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeNeitheragreenordisagreeAgreeStronglyagree

Therewillbeaglobalrecession13452913

Theglobaleconomywillbecomemoreresilient1347328

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(May2026).

AtthetimethesurveywasconductedinApril

2026,58%ofrespondentsdisagreedorstronglydisagreedthataglobalrecessionwouldoccurwithinthenext12months.Atthesametime,6in10chiefeconomistssurveyeddonotexpecttheglobaleconomytobecomemoreresilientin

thenext12monthseither.Discussionswiththecommunityprovidedmorecontexttothisresult:

supplychainadjustmentsandreconfigurationsofenergysystemswilltakesometime.Theremaybeapositiveimpactonresilienceinthelongerterm,butitwilllikelytakemorethanayeartomanifest.

Figure4:USdollar

Lookingatthenext12months,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeNeitheragreenordisagreeAgreeStronglyagree

Thedollarwillweakenagainstothermajorcurrencies2621458

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(May2026).

Inthiscomplexcontext,theoutlookfortheUS

dollarisalsochanging.InSeptember2025,78%ofsurveyedchiefeconomistsexpectedtheUSdollartoweakenagainstothermajorcurrencies.

Inthisedition,thatsharedroppedtoonly53%.

AftertheUScurrencysurgedatthebeginningoftheconflictintheMiddleEast,gainshaverecentlybeenreversedamidashifttowardsamorepessimistic

outlook,bothonaswiftendtotheconflictandthecurrency’sfutureperformance.6

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay6

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay7

Volatilityincreases

Ofchiefeconomistssurveyed,79%expectvolatilityinprivatedebtmarketstoriseoverthenext12months,while74%saythesameofpublicdebtmarkets.

Signsofstrainarealreadybecomingapparent.AftermarkingdownsomeloansintheportfoliosofprivatecreditgroupsinMarch,anewmarketofcreditdefaultswapsagainstflagshipprivatecreditfundshasnowemerged.7,8Publicdebtmarketshavebeenresilientsofar,butdeeperstructuraldevelopmentsareongoing.9Borrowingbygovernmentsandcompanieshita

recordin2025andissettoriseagainin2026,evenaslong-durationdemandweakensandmaturitiesshorten.10Publicdebtratiosarestillclimbing,and

interestspendinghasincreasedfrom2%tonearly3%ofGDP(grossdomesticproduct)inonlyfouryears.11Additionally,anumberofmajoreconomieshaveseenlong-termborrowingcostsrise.12

Further,68%ofchiefeconomistsexpectglobal

stock-marketvolatilitytoincreaseoverthenext

year.Stockmarketvolatilityremainselevatedin

Europe,buthasnotreachedthelevelsoflastyear’stariffturmoilortheCOVID-19pandemiccrash.13

WallStreet’sfeargauge,theChicagoBoardOptionsExchange(CBOE)VolatilityIndex(VIX),closedat

17.08on7May,downfromalate-Marchhighof

over30,suggestingthespringscarehasebbed

ratherthanvanished.14SignalsinAsiaaresimilar,

withHongKong’svolatilitybenchmarkhovering

around21inlateApril,alsodownfromalmost30inlateMarch.15However,increasingpressureinducedbytheMiddleEastconflictcouldquicklydestabilizethisperspectiveandvolatilitymaybroadenrather

thandisappear.

Figure5:Marketvolatility

Lookingatthenext12months,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeNeitheragreenordisagreeAgreeStronglyagree

Privatedebtmarketvolatilitywillincrease51658

21

Publicdebtmarketvolatilitywillincrease351863

11

Globalstockmarketvolatilitywillincrease161655

13

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(May2026).

AIsentimentiscooling

Thekeydriverofoptimisticsentimentamong

surveyedchiefeconomistsistheviewthatAI

adoptionwillunlockmeaningfulproductivitygains.Morethan9in10respondentsagreeorstronglyagreethatAIadoptionwillincreaseinthenext

12months.Adoptionismovingsoquicklythat

signsofsignificantsupplyconstraintsarenow

emerging.16Therearealsoclearsignsthatadoptionisprogressingunevenlywhenviewedthroughbothgeographicandbusinesslenses.17

Mostchiefeconomistssurveyedexpectimminent,meaningfulAI-relatedproductivitygainsin

informationtechnologyanddigitalcommunications(Figure7),inlinewithexpectationsinJanuary.Thefirstwaveofgainsisemerginginareaswherethe

workitselfisdigital,allowingAItointeractdirectly

withcode,dataandworkflows.Recentevidence

showsthatICTworkersremaintheheaviest

usersandamongthefirsttorecordimmediate

productivitybenefits.18Inmanycases,the

technologyisimprovingtheverysystemsonwhichtheindustryalreadyruns,sotheloopfromadoptiontomeasuredoutputmaybeshorterthanelsewhere.

Figure6:AIadoption

Lookingatthenext12months,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeNeitheragreenordisagreeAgreeStronglyagree

AIadoptionwillincrease85834

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(May2026).

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay8

Figure7:AIadoption:industries

HowlongdoyouthinkitwilltakefortheadoptionanddeploymentofAItoolstogeneratemeaningfulproductivitygainsacrossthefollowingindustries?

January2026May2026

Informationtechnologyanddigitalcommunications

Defence

Financial,professional,realestateservices

>

Education

<

Supplychainandtransportservices

>

Leisureandtravel

>

Manufacturing

>

Medical,healthcareandcareservices

>

Retailandwholesaleofconsumergoods

>

Energyandmaterials

>

Engineering,constructionandutilities

>

Mining(excludingfossilfuels)

>

Agriculture,forestryandfishing

>

012345

Years

Note:Medianvalues.DatafordefenceindustryavailableonlyforMay2026.

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(May2026).

Meaningfulgainsinfinancial,professionalandrealestateservicesareexpectedwithinaboutoneyearinthelatestsurvey.Recentexperimentationin

paymentspointstoAI-mediatedpaymentinitiation,real-timefraudscreeningandautomatedcomplianceattransactionspeed.19Inrealestate,firmsare

beginningtoredesigncomplainthandling,renewalsandreportingaroundagenticworkflowsrather

thanone-offdraftingtools.20Thistimingsuggeststhatthesectorismovingbeyondthefirstroundofcopilotsandintotheharderworkofredesigningworkflows,accountabilityandclientprocesses.

Comparedtothepreviousedition,however,

respondents’viewsonthetechnology’sshort-termimpactonproductivityhavecooledacrossmost

industries,withITandeducationastheexceptions.Respondentsnowanticipatemeaningful

productivitygainsineducationtomaterialize

slightlyearlier.TheadoptionofAIineducation

holdsimmensepotentialtorevolutionizeteachingmethodologies,personalizelearningexperiencesandstreamlineadministrativeprocesses.21

Inallotherindustries,themedianexpectedarrivalofmeaningfulproductivitygainshasincreased,

suggestingthatbroad-basedproductivity

improvementsfromAIadoptionmaytakelongertoobservethanpreviouslythought.22Thepayofffromgeneral-purposetechnologieshasoftenrequiredyearsofcomplementaryinvestment,andthe

currentAIwavestillappearsconcentratedinlargerfirmsandknowledge-intensiveservices,withlegal,data,skillsandinfrastructureconstraintsslowingadoptionbeyondthefrontier.23Theresultmaybeamorestaggeredcyclethantheearlyanticipationimplied,withvisiblewinsarrivingunevenlyanda

widermacroeconomicpayoffemergingonlyoncemanagementpractices,powerinfrastructureandworkforceadaptationcatchup.24

Ofthechiefeconomistssurveyed,mostexpect

meaningfulgainsindefencewithinthenexttwo

years.Thetechnologyismovingquickly:thelatestAmericanbudgetplanspointtoasharpincreaseinspendingonautonomousandremotelyoperatedsystemsacrossair,landandsea,withdronesat

thecentreofthepush.25AIcanlowerthecostof

reconnaissance,targetingandforceprotection,butdoctrine,interoperability,trainingandsafetyfailuresremainconcernsacrossthesector.26

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay9

2

Disruptionanditsimplications

Therelativelyoptimisticoutlookfortheglobal

economyinJanuary2026tookaturnfortheworseon28FebruarywhentheUSandIsraellaunchedaseriesofairstrikesonIran.27Iranrespondedwithmissilesanddronesacrosstheregion,and,withindays,theStraitofHormuz,acriticalnarrowmarinepassagebetweenIranandOman,waseffectivelyshuttoallcommercialtrafficexceptforvesselsofIrananditsallies.28Beforetheconflict,about10%ofglobalseabornetradevolumepassedthrough

thestraitannually.29

Afterseveralshipshadbeenhit,outboundflowsofcrudeoil,liquifiednaturalgas(LNG)andfertilizer-

relatedgoodsbrokedownalmostsimultaneously.30InresponsetoattacksonIran’sownenergysystem,TehranthenwidenedretaliationtoGulfenergy

assets,andon18MarchstruckQatar’sRasLaffanindustrialcomplex,afacilitythatnormallydeliversaboutafifthofglobalLNGsupply,withrepairs

expectedtotakethreetofiveyears.31

Figure8:Relativecrisissize

Pleaseindicatetherelativeseverityofimpactofthefollowingeventsontheglobaleconomy.

2025tariffturmoil

2026Iranwar(HormuzreopensinApril)

2026Iranwar(HormuzreopensinMay)

2026Iranwar(HormuzreopensinJune)

2026Iranwar(HormuzcloseduntilH2orlonger)COVID-19pandemic

Note:Medianvalues.

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(May2026).

40

41

55

72

83.5

100

0255075100

Relativeseverity

Furtherdamagetoenergyinfrastructureintheregionalteredthenatureoftheshockfromatemporary

shippinginterruptiontowardsadurablelossofsupply,theeffectsofwhichhavesincerippledthroughtheglobaleconomy.FlowsthroughtheStraitofHormuzcollapsedfromroughly20millionbarrelsadaytoatrickle,andthescrambleforreplacementgassentAsianandEuropeanLNGpricessurging.32Atwo-weekceasefireannouncedon7Aprilchangedthetempoofthecrisiswithoutremovingthepressuresontheglobaleconomy.33On12April,theUSlaunchedanavalblockade,alsoclosingtheStraitofHormuztoIran-affiliatedtraffic.34BylateApril,Brentcrude

hadtemporarilysurpassed$125abarrel,withfurthersharpincreasesexpectediftheStraitofHormuz

remainsclosed.35Atthetimeofwriting,thestrait

remainsclosedandcrudeoilisabove$110abarrel.

Whenaskedabouttherelativeseverityofthe

impactontheglobaleconomy,chiefeconomistsalreadyplacethecurrentclosuredurationoftheStraitofHormuzdecisivelyabovetheimpactsofthe2025tariffturmoil.Werethestatustoremainunchanged,theimpactontheglobaleconomyisexpectedtoapproachlevelslastseenduringtheCOVID-19pandemic.

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay10

Industryimpacts

WhenaskedinearlyAprilaboutthelevelof

disruptioncausedbytheconflictintheMiddle

Eastacrossdifferentindustries,surveyedchief

economistsidentifiedenergyandmaterialsasthe

mostaffectedindustrybysomemargin.Intotal,

58%ofrespondentsdescribeddisruptionasvery

highandanother39%ashigh,paintinganear-

unanimouspictureofasevereimpact,withcurrentlyunfoldingeventsdestinedtocauselastingalterationstotheindustryevenunderthemostoptimistic

scenariosaboutthedurationoftheconflict.36

However,disruptioncantakeonmanyshapes.Pricesurgescausedsignificantwindfallprofitsforenergycompanies,andarecentdecisionbytheUnitedArabEmiratestoleavetheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)couldaltermarket

dynamicsandaddnewcomplexities.37

Supplychainandtransportservicescamein

second,with76%ofrespondentscharacterizing

thelevelofdisruptionashighorveryhigh.The

closureoftheStraitofHormuzisamongtheworst-casescenariosofsupplychaindisruptionswith

secondaryeffectsfarbeyondtheGulfitself.Atthetimeofwriting,about2,000commercialvessels

remainedstrandedwithintheGulf,accountingforaround5%ofglobaltonnage.38ShippingintheRedSearemainsatriskofdisruptionaswell,causing

tankertrafficviatheCapeofGoodHopetoreachanewrecordhighinApril.39

Theleisureandtravelindustryalsofaceshighor

veryhighlevelsofdisruption,accordingto65%ofrespondents.Theconflictcausedimmediateandseveredisruptionstoairtrafficintheregion,with

departuresfromthemainGulfhubscollapsing

andtravellersgettingstrandedatairportsaswell

assubstantialreroutingofexistingconnections.40TourismintheMiddleEasthascontracted,andalltripsthatwouldhavepreviouslycrossedtheregionarenowaffectedbyachangedriskperception.41

Asaresult,flowsmightberedirectedtootherpartsoftheworld,thoughballooningjetfuelpricescouldrendermanyconnectionseconomicallyunviable.42

Ofrespondentssurveyed,64%describethedefenceindustryasalsofacinghighorveryhighlevelsof

disruption,asdefencespendingsurgesacrosstheglobe,andaconflict-driventechnologyraceunfoldsthatcouldyieldunforeseensecondaryoutcomes.43

Figure9:Industryimpact

HowdoyouratethecurrentlevelofdisruptioncausedbytheconflictintheMiddleEastinthefollowingindustries?VerylowLowModerateHighVeryhigh

Energyandmaterials33958

Supplychainandtransportservices244234

Leisureandtravel33238

27

Defence3141950

14

Agriculture,forestryandfishing223030

19

Manufacturing164234

8

Mining(excludingfossilfuels)8272435

5

Retailandwholesaleofconsumergoods3144932

3

Engineering,constructionandutilities254225

8

Financial,professional,realestateservices14413211

3

Informationtechnologyanddigitalcommunications133942

5

Medical,healthcareandcareservices255617

3

Education3650

14

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(May2026).

ChiefEconomists’OutlookMay11

Theagriculture,forestryandfishingindustryisplacedinfifthposition,with49%ofrespondentsviewing

thecurrentlevelofdisruptionashighorveryhigh.Consultationswithchiefeconomistspointedoutarangeofreasonsforthisrelativelylowplacement.

ProduceexportsfromSub-SaharanAfricapreviouslydestinedfortheMiddleEastneedtobereroutedinsearchofnewmarkets,facingsignificantlyextendedtransittimesandhighercosts.44However,the

mediu