海外可再生能源数据库2026一季度报告 The Landscape of Chinese Renewable Energy Investment Overseas - Q1 2026

ChineseOverseasRenewableEnergy—Q12026Update

April2026Page1

TheLandscapeofChinese

RenewableEnergyInvestment

Overseas—Q12026

BingcaiLiu,ZhengyunZhou,WeiShen

April2026InternationalInstituteofGreenFinance(IIGF)

InstituteofDevelopmentStudies(IDS)

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AboutthisPublication

ThispolicybriefisproducedbytheInternationalInstituteofGreenFinance(IIGF)atCentral

UniversityofFinanceandEconomics(CUFE),Beijing,China,incollaborationwiththeInstituteofDevelopmentStudies(IDS),Brighton,UK.ItpresentsaquarterlyupdateoftheD-CORE

(DatabaseofChineseOverseasRenewableEnergyInvestment),trackingprojectactivities

recordedinQ12026(January–March2026).ThefindingsreflectthoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIIGForIDS.

DataNote

Thisquarterlyeditiondrawsonacurated,conservativelyfilteredextractoftheD-CORE

databasecomprising596verifiedprojectrecordsspanningJanuary2025toMarch2026.Unlikethebroaderdatasetusedinthefull-periodreport,thisextractappliesstrictersource-quality

thresholds,retainingonlyrecordswithconfirmedproject-leveldetailsandavalidnumeric

installed-capacityfigure.EachrecordrepresentsonedistinctprojectwithitsprimaryChinese

implementingentity;projectswithmultipleChineseparticipantsareconsolidatedintoasingle

recordtoavoiddouble-counting.Thecomparisonperiod(Q12025:January–March2025)is

drawnfromthesamefilteredextract.Financing-modeldata,ifavailable,ispresentedseparatelyandshouldbeinterpretedasindicativeratherthancomprehensive.

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KeyFindings

•ChineseoverseasrenewableenergyactivityacceleratedinQ12026.Projectcountrosefrom93inQ12025to129inQ12026(+39%),withtotalcontractedcapacity

increasingfrom27.5GWto36.3GW(+32%).Thisgrowthreflectsbothabroadergeographicspreadandadeepeningpipelineacrossalltechnologicalsegments.

•SolarPVretaineditspositionasthemostactivesegmentbyprojectcount(50

projects,14.8GWinQ12026,upfrom43projectsand10.4GWinQ12025).Integrated

Energysystemsdeliveredthehighestaverageprojectsizeat354MWperproject,

confirmingthecontinuedriseofbundledgeneration-plus-storagesolutionsincommerciallymaturemarkets.

•WesternAsialedallsubregionsbycontractedcapacity(17.5GW,21projects),

drivenbySaudiArabia(6.6GW,7projects)andtheUAE(5.6GW,3projects).SoutheastAsiarecordedthehighestprojectcount(30projects),reflectingcontinueddemandbreadthacrossASEANmarkets.

•LDCengagementexpandedmarkedly:projectsinLeastDevelopedCountriesgrewfrom11inQ12025to23inQ12026.SolarPVdominatedinbothLDCandNon-LDCcontexts,thoughIntegratedEnergyactivitiesretainedacomparativelyhighershareinLDCs,

consistentwiththedeploymentofsolar-plus-storagesolutionsinmarketswithweakergridinfrastructure.

•Blendedfinancingledamongidentifiablefinancingstructures,accountingfor24of

60projectswithfinancingdata(40%)and12.9GW.Theprevalenceofblendedstructuressuggestscontinuedmultilateralco-financingsupportforChinese-involvedrenewable

projectsindevelopingmarkets.

•CEECandPowerChinacontinuedtodominate,withCEECinvolvedin41Q12026

projects—byfarthemostactivefirm.PrivatefirmsincludingHyperStrong,TrinaStorage,andSanyGroupfeaturedprominentlyinstorageandwindsegments.

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ThesubstantialgrowthinChineseoverseasrenewableenergyactivityrecordedinQ12026

needstobesituatedwithinChina'sbroaderpolicyframeworkforthe15thFive-YearPlan(FYP)period(2026–2030).The15thFYPhasmadethepreliminaryestablishmentofaclean,low-

carbon,safeandefficientnewenergysystemacorenationalpriority.Withinthisoverarching

framework,theFYPexplicitlyencouragesChineseenterprisestoexpandgreenenergy

cooperationabroad,promotetheintegrationoftradeandinvestment,andguideanorderly

cross-borderlayoutofindustrialandsupplychains.TheQ12026figuresincludes129projects

and36.3GWofcontractedcapacity,representingyear-on-yearincreasesof39%and32%

respectively,whichofferanearlyempiricalsignalofthemomentumalignedwiththenational

agendaofinternationalenergycooperation,particularlywiththeGlobalSouth.Thenearly

doublingofprojectsinLeastDevelopedCountries(LDCs)duringthesameperiodisapowerfulexampleofthistrend.Inthefollowinganalysis,thenewlyemerged129projectswereunpackedfromtechnologicalcomposition,geographicaldistribution,developmentalstage,financing

models,andmainactors.Wealsohandpickedtworepresentativecasesforadeeperassessment.

TechnologicalComposition

SolarPVremainedthemostactivetechnologyinQ12026with50projectsand14.8GWof

contractedcapacity,upfrom43projects(10.4GW)inQ12025.The16%increaseinproject

countand43%increaseincapacityreflectabroadeningofsolarprocurementacrossboth

establishedBRImarketsandnewerdestinations,includingRomania,Angola,andSouthKorea.

IntegratedEnergysystems(combinedgenerationandstorage)recorded29projects(10.3

GW)inQ12026,comparedwith18projects(10.2GW)inQ12025.The61%increaseinprojectcountalongsidenear-stableaggregatecapacityindicatesthatwhilesmallerintegratedsystemsareproliferatingacrossawidersetofhostcountries,theverylargemulti-GWhybridcomplexescharacteristicofMENApipelineswerelessprevalentthisquarter.

EnergyStoragerecorded21projectsinQ12026,upfrom12inQ12025—a75%increaseinprojectcount,whichnonethelessconfirmsacceleratingdemandfordedicatedstorage

deployments,particularlyinSouthAfrica,Zambia,andSoutheastAsia.

WindPowergrewfrom11to15projects(+36%),withcapacityrisingfrom4.2GWto7.6GW

(+81%),drivenbylarge-scaletenderinginKazakhstan,SaudiArabia,andVietnam.Hydropowergrewmodestlyfrom6to7projects,withcapacityrisingfrom2.3GWto3.4GW,concentratedinLaosandPakistan.

Biomasscontinueditsgradualexpansion(2to6projects),whileGeothermal&WasteHeat

projectsremainedmarginal.Takentogether,SolarPVandIntegratedEnergyconfirmedtheir

rolesasthetwinpillarsofChina’soverseasrenewableportfolio,withWindPoweremergingasafaster-growingthirdpillarinQ12026.

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Figure1.Chineseoverseasrenewableenergyprojectsbytotalprojectcountandinstalledcapacity(GW)—Q12026vsQ12025

GeographicDistribution

SoutheastAsialedallsubregionsbyprojectcountinQ12026with30projects,thoughitscontractedcapacity(5.1GW)placeditsecondbehindWesternAsia.Vietnam(6projects),Indonesia(5projects),Malaysia(4projects),andThailand(5projects)drovetheregion’sexpandingportfolioamiddiverseprocurementcontexts.Laosretaineditsroleasamajorhydropowerdestination(2.5GWacross5projects).

WesternAsiadominatedbycontractedcapacity,reaching17.5GWacross21projects.

SaudiArabiaaloneaccountedfor6.6GWacross7projects,followedbytheUAE(5.6GW,3

projects)andKuwait(2.7GW,1project).ThescaleofindividualprojectsintheGulfregion

reflectsthecontinueddeploymentoflarge-scalesolarandhybridparkssupportedbysovereignoff-takersandlong-termPPAframeworks.

CentralAsiarecorded13projects(3.9GW),ledbyUzbekistan(5projects,1.0GW)and

Kazakhstan(3projects,2.3GW).Inthisnewedition,CentralAsia’saggregatecapacityis

adjustedtoreflectthenewfilteringsystem,whichisnowbasedonconfirmedcontractedfiguresratherthanannouncedgenerationcapacity.

EasternAfricastrengthenedconsiderably,growingfrom1projectinQ12025to9projectsinQ12026.Zambia(3projects),andTanzaniafeaturedprominently,indicatingadeepeningofChineserenewableengagementacrosssub-SaharanAfricathroughmodestlysizedsolarandstoragedeployments.Angola’s2.2GWprojectstandsoutasanoutlierinscalefortheregion.

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Figure2.Totalinstalledcapacity(GW)andprojectcountbysubregion,Q12026

Amongtopindividualhostcountries,SaudiArabia(6.6GW),theUAE(5.6GW),andKuwait(2.7GW)leadbycontractedcapacity.Vietnam(6projects)andSaudiArabia(7projects)ledby

projectcount.

Figure3.Top10countriesbytotalinstalledcapacity(GW)andenergycategory,Q12026

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DevelopmentStage:LDCsvs.Non-LDCs

Ofthe129projectsrecordedinQ12026,23werelocatedinLeastDevelopedCountries

(LDCs),representingasignificantexpansionfrom11LDCprojectsinQ12025.Thisnear-doublinginLDCengagementsuggeststhatChinesefirmsareincreasinglyactiveinlower-incomemarkets,evenasthebulkofcontractedcapacityremainsconcentratedinmiddle-incomeandhigh-incomecontexts.

SolarPVdominatedinLDCmarkets,accountingfor9of23LDCprojects(39%),followedbyIntegratedEnergy(7projects,30%)andWindPowerandHydropower(3projectseach,13%each).ThenotablyhighshareofIntegratedEnergyinLDCcontextsreflectsthegrowing

deploymentofsolar-plus-storagesolutionsinmarketswithweakergridinfrastructure,includingZambia,Tanzania,andCambodia.

InNon-LDCmarkets,SolarPValsoremaineddominant(41of106projects,39%),witha

strongerpresenceofEnergyStorage(20projects,19%),whichreflectingmoredevelopedgridenvironmentsandcommercialoff-takestructures.IntegratedEnergywasalsosignificant(22

projects,21%),whileBiomassactivitywasexclusivelyconcentratedonNon-LDCmarkets(6projects).

ThetechnologydifferentiationbetweenLDCandNon-LDCcontextsisbroadlyconsistentwith

thepatternidentifiedinthepreviousD-COREreport(2022-2025):Chinesefirmsadapttheir

technologysupplytohost-countries’gridreadinessandfinancingenvironment.HydropowerandhybridsolutionsanchortheLDCportfolio,whilemorecommerciallydrivenmarketsattracta

broadertechnologicalmixincludingdedicatedstorageandbiomass.

Figure4.Projectcountbyenergycategory:LDCsvs.Non-LDCs,Q12026

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FinancingLandscape

Financing-modeldataisavailablefor60of596projectrecordsinthefulldataset(approximately10%),whichshouldbetreatedasindicativeoftrendsratherthanacomprehensiveaccount.

Thisismainlybecausefinancialinformationisoftenunavailableatearlierstagesofproject

development.Thelowcoverageoffinancingdatareflectsthebroaderchallengesoftracing

deal-levelfinancialstructuresinChineseoverseasenergyinvestment,asnotedinthefull-periodreport.However,threefinancingcategoriesareidentifiedfromtheavailabledata:Blended

Financing,ExportCreditFinancing,andEquityFinancing.

BlendedFinancingwasthemostfrequentlyrecordedmodelwith24projectsand12.9GWof

associatedcapacity.Theseprojectstypicallyinvolveco-financingbetweenChinesepolicybanksordevelopmentfinanceinstitutions(DFIs)andmultilateraldevelopmentbanks(MDBs)or

regionaldevelopmentbanks(RDBs),ofteninmarketswheredubioussovereign

creditworthinessorcurrencyriskrequiresadditionalde-riskarrangement.SolarPV(10projects)andWindPower(5projects)werethemostcommontechnologysegmentsunderblended

arrangements.

ExportCreditFinancingcovered19projects(5.7GW),primarilySolarPV(8projects)andWindPower(4projects).Thesetransactionstypicallyinvolvesovereignborrowingor/and

concessionallendingfromChinesepolicybanks(EximBankorCDB)tohostgovernmentsorstateutilities,withtheChineseEPCcontractorreceivingpaymentfromtheloanproceeds.

EquityFinancingwasrecordedfor17projects(2.0GW),withaloweraverageprojectsize

thantheothertwocategories.Equity-financedprojectsweredistributedacrossSolarPV(7

projects),WindPower(3projects),andBiomass(1project),concentratedinmarketswithmorestableregulatoryframeworkssuchasSouthAfrica,Romania,andAustralia.ThisisconsistentwiththepreviousfindingthatequityparticipationbyChinesefirmsincreasesinmarketswith

transparentandpredictablelegalframeworksandbankablePPAs.

Figure5.Financingmodeldistributionbyprojectcountandenergycategory,andcontractedcapacitybyfinancingmodel(fulldataset,2025–Q12026)

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KeyActorsInvolvedandProjectStages

ProjectStageDistribution

SignedcontractswerethemostcommonprojectstageinQ12026(57projects,44%),followedbythoseInOperation(26projects,20%)andjustAwarded(24projects,19%).ThehighshareofSignedandAwardedprojectsconfirmsanactivecontractingperiod,withasignificantpipelinemovingfromtenderingtoexecution.The26InOperationprojectsunderscorethecontinued

commissioningofprojectscontractedinpriorperiods.

ComparedtoQ12025,theshareofInOperationprojectsgrewmeaningfully(from

approximately15%to20%),suggestingthatprojectsinitiatedduringthe2022–2024pipelineexpansionarenowreachingcompletion.Construction-stageprojects(ConstructionStarted+UnderConstruction)remainedsteadyataround15%ofthequarterlytotal.

Figure6.Projectstagedistribution:Q12025(left)vsQ12026(right)

LeadingChineseCompanies

CEEC(ChinaEnergyEngineeringGroup)dominatedQ12026with87projectinvolvements,consolidatingitspositionasthepre-eminentChinesefirminoverseasrenewableenergy

delivery.CEEC’sleadershipismainlysecuredbyitsprojectsinSoutheastAsiaandAfrica.

Amongprivatefirms,HyperStrong(Haibo)emergedasthetop-rankedstoragespecialistwith8records,reflectingtherapidgrowthofChinesebatterystoragedeploymentinmarketssuchasOmanandSouthAfrica.CHINTGroup(7records)andSanyGroup(3records)reinforcedthe

presenceofprivate-sectorplayersinsolarandwindequipmentsupplychains.

WhereascentralSOEsstillmaintainthestructuraldominance,thegrowingfootprintofprivate

specialistsinstorage,solarmodules,andwindequipmentsuggestsagradualbroadeningoftheChineseactorlandscapeinoverseasrenewableenergymarkets.

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Figure7.TopChinesecompaniesbynumberofprojects,Q12026(blue=CentralSOE;orange=PrivateEnterprise)

EPCcontractscontinuedtodominateChineseinvolvementinQ12026,accountingfor49%ofallinvolvementrecords(126outof257).Thisdominanceisbroadlyconsistentwiththepreviousreport(60%between2022-2025),yetitisnotablydwindlingasblendedandequity-linkedrolesexpanded.

ThemostnotableshiftcomparedwithQ12025istheriseofcombinedEPC+Equity/Debtarrangements,from2records(0.9%)to20records(7.8%).Thissuggeststhatagrowing

subsetofChinesefirmsarelayeringfinancialparticipationontopoftheirtraditionalconstructionrole,ratherthanlimitingexposuretobuild-and-hand-overcontracts,particularlythoseoperatinginmarketswithbankablePPAsandstableregulatoryframeworks.

PureEquity/Debtinvolvementremainedsteadyataround10%(25records),whileEquipmentSupplyedgeddownslightlyfrom66to60records.BOT/BOOTarrangements(9records)

remainedasmallbutpersistentcomponent,concentratedinhydropowerandlargesolarconcessionsinSouthandSouth-eastAsia.

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Figure8.ProjectdistributionbyChineseinvolvementtype—Q12025(left)vsQ12026(right)

RepresentativeProjects

UzbekistanJizzakh500MWSolarPhotovoltaicPowerPlant

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ExecutiveOverview

TheJizzakh500MWSolarPVProject,situatedintheForishDistrictoftheJizzakhRegion,

representsacornerstoneofUzbekistan’snationalstrategytodiversifyitsenergymixand

transitiontowardalow-carboneconomy

1

.Asoneofthelargestutility-scalesolarinstallationsinCentralAsia,theprojectwasdevelopedunderainvestmentframeworkledbyChineseSOEs,markingasignificantmilestoneintheenergycooperationbetweenChinaandUzbekistanwithintheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI).

Theprojectisparticularlynotableforreflectingthe“investment-construction-operation

integration”(投建营一体化)modelthatChinesepowerenterprisesareincreasinglyadoptingoverseas.ByshiftingfromapureEPCroletoafulllifecycleinvestorandoperator,Chinesefirmsaresecuringlong-term,stablecashflowswhiledeepeningtheirparticipationinhost

countries’energysystem.

InvestmentandStakeholderStructure

TheprojectwasspearheadedbyChinaHuadian,inpartnershipwithChinaElectricalEquipmentGroup(CEEG).Theseentitiesjointlyestablishedtheprojectcompany,HuadianJizzakhSolar

PowerLLC,tooverseetheinvestmentandlong-termoperationoftheasset.TheEPCwas

executedbyChinaStateConstructionEngineeringCorporation(CSCEC),demonstratingahighdegreeofverticalintegrationfrominvestmenttoinfrastructuredelivery.

Totaldirectinvestmentintheprojectamountstoapproximately2.08billionChineseyuan

(aroundUSD290million).TheprojectisstructuredasapureequityinvestmentbytheChineseconsortium,withnopubliclydisclosedparticipationfromMDBsasofthelatestavailable

information.Thisdistinguishesitfromotherrenewableprojectsintheregionoftenfinancedbyinternationallendingsyndicates.

BankabilityoftheOff-TakerUzenergosotish

Acriticalenableroftheproject’sfinancialviabilityisthecreditworthinessofthestate-owned

powerpurchaser,UzenergosotishJSC.Theabilityofthisentitytoenterintoacredible25-yearPowerPurchaseAgreement(PPA)issupportedbyseverallayers:

•Sovereigncreditlinkage:Uzenergosotish’screditprofileisdirectlytiedtothesovereignratingofUzbekistan.lnJuly2025,FitchupgradedUzbekistan’slong-termforeign-

currencyissuerdefaultratingtoBB(Stable),withUzenergosotishreceivingacorrespondingupgrade.

•StandardizedPPPframework:UzbekistanhasdevelopedinternationallyrecognisedPPAterms,includingtake-or-payclausesandgovernmentsupportletters,whichhavebeenvalidatedthroughmultiplesuccessfulrenewablesprojectswithinternational

sponsorssuchasMasdar,ACWAPower,andEBRD.

ThesemechanismscollectivelyensurethatfinancierscanacceptUzenergosotishasabankableoff-taker,withdefaultriskconsideredequivalenttothatoftheRepublicofUzbekistanitself.

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DevelopmentTimelineandOperationalStatus

•StrategicInception:TheprojectwasformalizedinMay2023duringtheinaugural

China-CentralAsiaSummit,whereamemorandumofcooperationwassignedbetweenChinaHuadianandtheMinistryofEnergyofUzbekistan.

•ContractualFinalisation:Followingthesigningofthe25-yearPPAwiththeNationalElectricGridofUzbekistan,theinvestmentagreementwassignedinApril2025.

•GridConnection:ThefacilityachieveditsfirstphaseofgridconnectiononDecember5,2025,attendedbyPresidentShavkatMirziyoyev.

•FullCommercialOperation:Theprojectreachedfull-capacitycommercialoperation

onMarch31,2026,supplyingapproximately1.1billionkWhofcleanelectricityannuallytothenationalgrid.

Theconstructionperiodofapproximately8.5months(fromfirstpiledrivingtofullgrid

connection)exemplifiestheincredibleefficiencyandexecutioncapability,enabledbyintegratedinvestment-constructionownershipandstandardisedChinesesolarPVsupplychains.

AccordingtotheD-COREdatabase,therearealtogether5projectswith0.96GWcapacityinthepipeline.

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EthiopiaAysha-II120MWWindPowerPlant

ExecutiveSummary

TheAysha-IIWindPowerProjectisavitalutility-scalerenewableenergyassetsituatedintheAyshaDistrictoftheSomaliRegionalState,Ethiopia.LocatedstrategicallynearthebordersofDjiboutiandSomalia,the120MWfacilityisakeycomponentoftheEthiopianElectricPower

(EEP)strategytoleveragethecountry’svastwindresourcestodiversifyitshydro-dominantenergymix.TheprojectreachedfullcommercialoperationonJanuary31,2026,markingasignificantmilestoneinEastAfrica’sregionalenergyintegration.

StakeholderandTechnicalFramework

TheprojectwasexecutedunderanEngineering,Procurement,andConstruction(EPC)

frameworkledbyDongfangElectricCorporation(DEC),oneofChina’sleadingpower

equipmentmanufacturers.Thefacilitycomprises48windturbines,eachwithacapacityof

2.5MW,specificallyengineeredtowithstandthehigh-temperatureandhigh-wind-speed

environmentcharacteristicoftheAysharegion.OwnershipandoperationalcontrolresidewiththeEEP.

DevelopmentTimelineandFinancialRestructuring

Initiatedinlate2015withconstructionstartingin2017,theprojectfacedextraordinarydelaysduetosystemicrisksincludingCOVID-19,theTigrayWar,andasovereigncreditcrisis.After

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externalfinancingwaswithdrawn,EEPcompletedtheprojectusingitsownrevenues.Onthe

inaugurationceremony,leadersfromEthiopia,DjiboutiandSomaliaallattended,acknowledgingtheregionalvalueoftheprojectandDEC’spersistencethroughnearlyadecadeof

compoundedchallenges.

ATestamenttoChineseLong-TermismandLocalCommitment

ThecompletionofAysha-IIstandsasapowerfultestamenttoChineseenterprises’long-

termismanddeep-rootedlocalexecutioncapacity.Fornearlyadecade,DongfangElectricCorporation(DEC)remainedengagedintheprojectdespitecircumstancesthatwouldhavedrivenmanyinternationalcontractorstowithdraw.Evenwhenfinancingstalledandpaymentflowsbecamehighlyuncertain,DECcontinuedtomaintainapresenceontheground,

preservingtheproject’stechnicalcontinuityandsignallingassolidcommitmenttoEthiopia’senergyaspiration.Thispersistenceandenduranceforshort-termdifficultiesforlong-term

partnershipisadefiningcharacteristicofChineseSOEs’approachtoinfrastructuredevelopmentinfrontiermarkets.

TheHardRealitiesofProjectDeliveryinanLDC

However,theAysha-IIstoryisequallyastoryofextraordinarydifficulty,andanexemplarycasestudyinthesystemicbarriersthatconfrontinfrastructuredevelopmentinLDCs.Whatwas

originallyconceivedasastraightforwardEPCprojectwithaprojectedtimelineof2or3years

ultimatelytooknearlynineyearstoreachcompletion.Thisprotractedjourneyrevealstheharshrealitiesthatliebeneathoptimisticprojectplanning.

PoliticalRiskwasthemostvolatileanddestructiveforce.TheoutbreakoftheTigrayWarin

November2020,anditssubsequentspreadtotheAfarregionadjacenttotheprojectsite,

directlythreatenedthesecurityofpersonnel,equipment,andsupplyroutes.Forany

infrastructureproject,suchconflict-induceduncertaintyisthekissofdeathfortimelycompletion.

CurrencyandExchangeRateRisksaddedanotherlayerofsystemicpressure.Ethiopiasuffersfromachronicshortageofforeigncurrency,aclassicfeatureofLDCmacroeconomics.Fora

projectheavilydependentonimportedequipment(turbines,electricalsystems,andspecializedcomponentssourcedfromChina),securingforeignexchangetopayforimportswasa

persistentchallenge.

SovereignCreditRiskprovedtobeanotherobstacle.Thefinancingpackagehasbeenalteredseveraltimes,andEEPultimatelystooduptocompleteAysha-IIusingitsowninternally

generatedrevenues.

SystemicRisksinInterplay

WhatmakestheAysha-IIcasesoinstructiveistheinterplayofthesesystemicchallenges.

Politicalrisk(thewar)exacerbatedsovereigncreditrisk(aslendersrecoiledfromanunstablecountry),whichinturnmagnifiedcurrencyrisk(asEEPstruggledtoaccessforeignexchangeamiddisruptedcapitalflows).Nosinglefactoraloneexplainsthenine-yeardelay;rather,itwasthecascadingcombinationofwar,debtdistress,andcurrencyscarcitythatturnedaroutine

EPCprojectintoamarathon.

AConditionalSuccess

Ultimately,theproject’scompletionisaconditionalsuccess.ItdemonstratesthatChineseEPCcontractors,withtheirhightolerancefordelayandtheirwillingnesstoremaincommittedthrough

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politicalandfinancialturmoil,canserveasanchorsofstabilityinfragilestates.Butitalso

revealstheouterlimitsofthatmodel.Assuch,theprojectstandsasacautiousachievementofpersistenceandpartnershipamidmultipleuncertaintiesthatplaguethepoorestcountriesintheageofpolycrisis.Infrastructuredeliveryisneverapurelytechnicalexercise,butacontinuous

struggleagainstsystemicvolatility.

AccordingtotheD-COREdatabase,Aysha-IIistheonlyprojectinthepipelinein2026.

Conclusion：

TheQ12026datafromthecuratedD-COREextractrevealsthreestructuralsignalsthatbothreinforceandrefinethefindingsofthefull-periodreport.

First,theaccelerationinprojectcount(+39%year-on-year)isstrikingandsuggeststhatChineseoverseasrenewableactivityisenteringanewphaseofscale.Whetherthis

reflectsagenuinestep-changeindealfloworapipelinecatch-upeffectfromthe2023–2024

contractingsurgewillbecomeclearerassubsequentquartersareadded.Thebreadthofactivehostcountries—spanningSub-SaharanAfrica,South-eastAsia,CentralAsia,andEurope—confirmsthatthisisnotageographicallynarrowphenomenon.

Second,theLDCengagementstoryisevolving.Thenear-doublingofLDCprojectcountinQ12026coincideswithanotableIntegratedEnergypresence(30%ofLDCprojects)inthesemarkets,departingsomewhatfromthehydropower-centricLDCpatterndocumentedforthe

2022–2025period.Thismayreflectthematurationofsolar-plus-storagemini-gridprocurementframeworksinEastandSouthernAfrica,whereChinesefirmswithstorageintegration

capabilitiesareincreasinglycompetitive.

Third,thefinancingdata—limitedthoughitis—pointstoanimportantstructural

feature:blendedfinancingstructuresarethemostcommonidentifiablemodel,

consistentwithanincreasingroleforMDBco-financinginenablingChinesefirm

participation.ThisalignswithrecentpolicyguidanceencouragingChineseenterprisesto

engagewithmultilateralfin