全球资本货物行业：2026年第一季度业绩前瞻报告（英文版）

JRPMorgan

Thismaterialis

neitherintendedto

bedistributedto

MainlandChina

investors

norto

providesecurities

investment

consultancyserviceswithintheterritoryofMainlandChina.Thismaterialorany

portion

hereofmay

not

be

reprinted,

sold

or

redistributedwithoutthewrittenconsent

ofJ.P.

Morgan.GlobalCapital

Goods1Q26

Earnings

PreviewSlidesSeetheend

pagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationand

important

disclosures,

including

non-US

analyst

disclosures.Machinery/Waste

Services:

1Q26

PreviewMachinery,

Engineering&ConstructionTamiZakaria,CFA

AC(1-212)622-9888tami.zakaria@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecurities

LLCRaquel

Betesh(1-212)622-1313raquel.betesh@jpJ.P.

MorganSecuritiesLLCAlec

R

McGuire(1-212)622-2432alec.mcguire@jpmorJ.P.MorganSecurities

LLCNorthAmerica

EquityResearchApril2026J.PMorganSeetheend

pagesforanalystcertificationandimportant

disclosures.•Ceasefirethewildcardwithmostearnings

afterthedeadline•

NewS232tariffsalreadydrivingsell-off•

Previoustariff-relatedsell-offsgotbought;probablywill

repeat•YTD

NAClass8truckordersdata(up90%YoY)suggests

upside

potentialfor2H

estimatesacrossourtruckcoverage•Outlookforglobalconstructionequipmentremainspositivewith

OEMs

(suchas

CAT/

DE)expectedtobenefitfromrestockingtailwinds•Agendmarketsremainchoppywith

Brazil

biasedtothedownside,

NA

retailsales

modestlydeterioratinginrecentmonths,andEurope

relativelystable/improving•

Positive:expectbeatsfromCATandDE;expect

sequential

improvement

in

deliveries/GMforPCAR;TRMB’srecentde-ratingisoverdoneagainstthe

potentialforearningsupside;risk-rewardisskewedtotheupsideforESAB,asthe

shares

have

de-ratedover

~5x

in

recentmonths,butthe

Iranceasefireandsubstantiallyeasiercompsshouldallowtrendstoimprove

in

2Q•

Negative:

Againstourpositiveviewonlarge-capOEMswithexposuretoconstruction,wearebearishontherentalnamesduetomargin

concerns;we

arealso

skeptical

ofthesteep2H-weightedguidanceofHRI/OSK•Waste:downgradedGFLto

UWpostdealannouncement;raisedestimatesforthegrouptoreflectfuelsurchargesandintra-quarterM&Aannouncements(i.e.,GFLandCWST)3Summary

of

1Q26

Preview•Off-Highway

Research(OHR)

is

projecting

NAtotalconstruction

equipmentsales

(in

volume)

growth

of-1%/+1%

in2026/27,

respectively,

after

-1%

in2025.

ForEurope,OHRestimatestotalconstructionequipmentvolume

growth

of

+3%/+3%

in

2026/27

(after

flattish

in

2025),

respectively,while

for

China

it

estimates

totalconstruction

equipment

volume

growth

of+9%/+7%

in2026/27

(after

+11%

in

2025),

respectively•FMI

expects

US

total

construction

spending

up

1%YoY

in2026

(unchanged),followed

by+4%

in2027(vs.

+3%

previously),

as

per

its

1Q26

North

AmericanEngineeringandConstructionOutlook.

Bycategory,

FMI

expectsYoY

US

residentialbuilding

spending

up2%

in2026(previously

+1%)

and

+3%

in

2027

(+2%

previously),nonresidential

buildings

flattish

in2026(unchanged)and

+4%

in2027

(vs.

prior

+3%),and

nonbuilding

structures

+4%

(previously+3%)and+7%

(previously

+5%)

in2026and2027,

respectively.

It

also

expects

US

data

center

spending

up

23%YoY

in

2026

(following+35%

in

2025E)Construction

EquipmentOutlook4

•In1QTD,

PPIfor

construction

machinerywas

up

5.4%YoY

(vs.

+5.0%

in4Q25),

mining

machineryand

equipmentwas

up4.4%YoY(vs.+1.2%in4Q25),oilfieldandgasfield

machinerywas

up3.1%YoY

(vs.+1.4%in4Q25)andtheengineturbine/powertransmissionequipmentcategorywasup8.7%YoY(vs.+4.4%in

4Q25)•Intermsofshipments,

1QTD(until

January)was

up

11.3%YoYforconstruction

machinery

(vs.

+16.9%

in4Q25),withturbinesup7.6%YoY(vs.+11.6%in4Q25),

and

mining

and

oil/gasfield

machinery

up4.7%YoY(vs.+5.0%

in4Q25)•USCensus

Bureautotal

constructionspenddown

0.3%

MoM

in

January;

private

resi

down

0.8%,privatenon-residown0.4%,totalpublicup

0.6%

MoM,data

centerspendwas

up

2.3%sequentially

inJanuaryand~31%YoY•TheArchitecture

BillingsIndex(ABI)

increasedMoMto49.4in

February

(vs.

43.8

in

January

and47.1in

December),below50(indicatingadecrease

in

billings)•PerDodge,total

US

constructionstarts

decreased~13%

MoM

in

February;

non-residential

and

residentialbuildingstartswereup+18%+8%

MoM

in

February,respectively.

Meanwhile,

nonbuilding

startsweredown-49%

MoM•US

useddozer/telehandlerpricesstillabove

pre-COVID

levelsIndustry

PulseCheck

-

US5

Source:Sandhills

Global,J.P.Morgan•Construction

OEMs’exposure

to

Europe;

CAT’s~20%of

total

sales

come

from

Europe,

OSK’s

~10%,

and

TEX

low-teens%•Onthebackofencouragingsigns

inourFebruary

data

report,wesaw

sequential

improvements

across

most

oftheconstructionPMIsaswellas

non-residentialindicatorswithinthe

region.

Meanwhile,

resi

permitsandstarts

in

France

were

down

sequentially.

In

February,the

EU

Construction

Confidence

Indicator

declined

to

-2.1(vs.

-2.9a

year

ago)and

in

negative

territory

for

the33rd

consecutive

month•For

non-residential

construction,total

starts

in

France

were

down

~6%

YoY

in

January,

while

permits

in

Germanywere

up~43%YoY

in

December.

In

France,

non-residential

permits

decreased~18%YoY

in

January.

Germany’sIndustrial

Construction

Order

Index

increased

to

103.1

in

December,

up

from93.6

in

November,while

its

Public

SectorConstruction

Order

Index

decreased

to94.1

in

December,down

from

129.5

in

November.The

UK

RIBA

FutureWorkload

Index

for

the

commercial

sector

came

in

at-3in

January,

down

from

+1in

December

and

up

from

-8

a

yearago•Total

housing

permits

as

of

January

in

France

were

up

~10%YoY,while

permits

as

of

December

in

Germanywere

up~4%YoY.The

UK

RIBA

Future

Workload

Index

(gauging

workload/staffing

levels

over

the

next3

months)

forthe

private

housing

sector

came

in

at-3

in

January,

up

from

-14

in

December

and

down

from

0

a

year

ago.Germany’sResidential

Construction

Order

Index

increased

to

100.5

in

December,

up

from93.9

in

NovemberSource:EuropeanCommission,S&PGlobal,RoyalInstituteofBritishArchitects,INSEE,DeutscheBundesbank,

Destatis,

UKDepartmentforLevellingUp,

Housing&Communities,HMRevenue&Customs,BloombergFinanceL

PJ

PMorganIndustry

PulseCheck-

Europe.

.,

.

.6OHR

Forecasts

Construction

Equipment

Sales

Volumes

In2026-1%/

+3%/

In

NA/Europe;

+9%

In

ChinaSource:Off-HighwayResearchandJ.P.Morgan7OHRConstruction

Equipment

Forecasts

By

MajorCategorySource:Off-HighwayResearchandJ.P.Morgan8FMI’s

USConstructionSpending

OutlookSource:FMI9US

UsedConstruction

Equipment:

Used

Prices

Largely

Moderating;

Inventories

Moderating;

ExcavatorAverageAge

ElevatedJ.

.10Note:Averageageofusedexcavatorssoldfor2025

YTDasofSeptemberSourceforallcharts:Sandhills

Global,PMorgan2Q25YoY

Growth3Q25YoY

Growth4Q25YoY

Growth1Q26YoY

Growth1Q26QoQ

GrowthUS

&Canada

Retail

Sales100HP+Tractors+Combines+4WD

Tractors-28%-24%-21%-19%-33%100HP+Tractors

-28%-20%-16%-22%-35%Combines

-23%-23%-15%-7%-39%4WD

Tractors-35%-44%-50%-13%-6%<100HP

Tractors

-7%1%-11%-7%-23%EuropeRegistrationsGermanTotalTractors

-15%-3%-9%-1%19%German

100HP+Tractors

-10%6%1%6%62%German<100HP

Tractors

-23%-16%-17%-15%-25%UK50HP+Tractors

-12%-5%-15%34%75%BrazilRetailSales

&

Shipments*Total

Tractor

Retail

Sales

-2%10%-8%-48%-61%100HP+&4WD

Tractors

2%-3%-14%-17%-37%<100HP

Tractors

3%-3%-14%-17%-37%Total

Combine

Retail

Sales

-10%-17%-28%-30%-42%Total

Tractor

Shipments18%19%-2%-33%-48%100HP+&4WD

Tractors

-7%8%-7%-50%-64%<100HP

Tractors34%25%0%-27%-42%Total

Combine

Shipments

50%27%-12%-42%-46%•North

America

HHPtractor

retailsales

deteriorating

in

1Q,

perAEM.

In

North

America,

100HP+tractorsalesweredown22%in

1Q26(vs.down

16%YoY

in4Q25),while

combinesweredown

7%

(vs.

down

15%

in

4Q25).Tractorsales<100HPweredown7%YoYin

1Q26(vs.down

11%

in4Q25).•German

100HP+tractorregistrationswere

up

6%YoY

in

1Q26

(vs.

up

1%

in4Q25),while

<100HP

registrationsweredown

15%YoYin

1Q26(vs.-17%in4Q25).•Brazil

largefarmequipment

sales

deteriorating

YoY.

For

Brazil,

totalfarmtractor

retailsaleswere

down

48%YoYin

1QTDthroughFebruary(vs.down8%

in4Q25).

Retail

sales

of

>100HP

(including4WD)were

down

17%YoYin

1Q26TD(vs.down

14%

in4Q25).Ag

Industry

Data

Points

MixedAcross

RegionsSource:AEM,

VDMA,AEA,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgan11*BrazildatareflectsthefirsttwomonthsofthequarterasMarchdata

is

unavailableAverage

Price

in20261QYoYChange1QQoQChangeYTD

Change(vs.2025Avg.)Corn

Futures(/bu)SoybeansFutures(/bu)WheatFutures(/bu)$4.39

-7%

2%

0%$11.22

9%

4%

8%$5.58

0%

6%

5%Ammonia-

Spot(/Short

Ton)

Phosphate-

Spot(/Short

Ton)

Potash-

Spot(/Short

Ton)Urea-

Spot(/Short

Ton)$790

23%

2%

20%$703

8%

-12%

-5%$357

6%

-6%

-3%$583

27%

25%

22%•WASDEfarmgate

price

projections

upfor

corn

and

flattishforwheat&

soybeans

in

2026/27;

USmajorcropSTUstoincreasein

2025/26cropyear•JPMefarmerprofitability

outlook

downvs.

lastyearTractorsCombinesAuction

price

as

of

March2026vs.last

peak-6%-1%Auction

price

as

of

March2026vs.2017-19average43%61%Auction

priceasof

March2026vs.

last3-yr

movingaverage0%8%TractorsCombinesInventory

as

of

March2026vs.

last

trough75%31%Inventory

as

of

March2026vs.average

in2017-19-9%-28%Inventory

asof

March2026vs.last

3-yr

movingaverage-13%-5%Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.Morgan•

Usedtractor&combineauctionpricesupYoY

in

1QIndustry

Data

PointsStill

Negativefor

US12

Source:Sandhills

GlobalandJ.P.Morgan$/Short

Ton$1,600$1,400$1,200$1,000$800$600$400$200$0MajorGlobalCornSTUs

Decreasing;

Input

Costs

Increasing1966/671968/691970/711972/731974/751976/771978/791980/811982/831984/851986/871988/891990/911992/931994/951996/971998/992000/012002/032004/052006/072008/092010/112012/132014/152016/172018/192020/212022/232024/251966/671968/691970/711972/731974/751976/771978/791980/811982/831984/851986/871988/891990/911992/931994/951996/971998/992000/012002/032004/052006/072008/092010/112012/132014/152016/172018/192020/212022/232024/25Source:

USDA

estimates

and

J.P.

Morgan

Source:

USDA

estimates,

and

J.P.

Morgan$20.00$18.00$16.00$14.00$12.00$10.00$8.00$6.00$4.00$2.00$0.00100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Crop

Prices

-Generic

1st

Future$/buSource:BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.MorganSource:BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.Morgan45.9%12.9%8.2%

Phosphate

Potash

AmmoniaUrea Corn

Soybeans

Wheat Corn

Soybeans

Wheat Corn

SoybeansWheat33.6%29.4%22.5%US

Cornbelt

Input

Spot

PricesGlobalStocks-To-UseUSStocks-To-Use1316.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0AverageAge

Of

Used

Tractors

Sold13.913.012.520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

YTD16.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0AverageAge

Of

Used

Combines

Sold14.6

14.5

14.313.813.413.012.612.12016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026YTD$250,000$200,000$150,000$100,000$50,000$0Used

Combine

Prices

&Inventory

12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,000$0Used

Tractor

Prices

&Inventory35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000US

UsedAg

Equipment:

Prices/AgeStill

Elevatedvs.

History;

Inventory

Below

Pre-Pandemic

Levels

ForCombines

(Tractors

Modestly

Below)14

Sourceforallcharts:Sandhills

Global,J.P.Morgan Auction

Price(Left)Asking

Price

(Left)Inventory(Right) Auction

Price(Left)

Asking

Price

(Left)Inventory(Right)Average

Agein

YearsAverage

Agein

Years13.914.113.913.914.313.512.713.214.214.314.4•

NAClass8production,perACT

Research,down34%YoY

in

1QTDthrough

February;

Class

5-7down

14%•

NAClass8

netorderswereup90%YoY

in1Q26following-17%

in

4Q25,

-30%

in

3Q25,

-43%

in2Q25,and-17%

in

1Q25.•

NAClass5-7netorderswereup8%YoY

in

1Q26following

+3%

in

4Q25,

-20%

in

3Q25,

-33%

in2Q25,and-26%

in

1Q25.•

Brazilheavydutytruckproduction,perANFAVEA,down23%YoY

in

1Q26;

MD

productiondown4%•

China

HDTsaleswere

up

17%YoY

in

1QTD(throughFeburary).Januarysalessurgedto

105Kunits(+46%YoY),while

February’s75Kunits(-8%YoY)were

impactedbythe

later

Chinese

NewYear(lateJanin2025vs

mid-Febin2026),whichshiftedthesales

peakto

early

March

and

ledtotemporaryproductionandshipmentslowdownsacrossthevaluechain.•AccordingtoitsApril

Outlook,ACT

ResearchforecastsNA

Class8truck

production

up9.2%YoYto274.4Kunitsin2026,followedbydown2.3%to268.0Kin

2027•

Freightmetricsremainsubdued•

US

usedsleeperanddaycabauctionpricesdownYoY

in

1Q•

LeadingindicatordeterioratedMoMinMarch.The

ISM

New

Orders

Indexwasdown

2.3ptsMoMto53.5in

March,indicatingexpansion(>50)forthe3rd

consecutive

month.The

indexwas

up

13%YoY

in

1Q26.Truck&Components:Strong

YTD

Orders

Should

Support

2H15

706050403020

Truck&Components:

Regional

Manufacturing

Fundamentals

ImprovingMarkit

Eurozone

Manufacturing

PMI51.6Sourceforallcharts:BloombergFinanceL.P.,ISM,

MarkitandJ.P.

MorganIndexLevel

IndexLevelIndexLevel

IndexLevel807060504030208070605040302080706050403020Markit

Caixin

China

Manufacturing

PMIMarkit

Brazil

Manufacturing

PMIISM

USManufacturing1649.052.750.8PMI80Aluminum

Price

($/Metric

Ton)$4,500$4,000$3,500$3,000$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,000$500$0Copper

Price

($/Metric

Ton)$16,000$14,000$12,000$10,000$8,000$6,000$4,000Truck&Components:

InputCosts

Increasing$60,000$50,000$40,000$30,000$20,000$10,000$0$2,000$1,800$1,600$1,400$1,200$1,000$800$600$400$200$0Sourceforallcharts:BloombergFinanceL.P.and

J.P.

Morgan17US

Domestic

Hot-Rolled

Coil

Steel

Price

($/Metric

Ton)Nickel

Price

($/Metric

Ton)Truck&Components:

Leading

Indicator

Improving,

Freight

MetricsWeakSource:

Cass,J.P.Morgan182001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Source:

ISM,

Cass,J.P.MorganSource:ATA,J.P.

Morgan20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%Historically,theYoY

changeinISM

NewOrdershasledtheYoY

changeintheCassFreight

Index

by

6-9months200%150%100%50%0%-50%114.0109.0104.099.094.089.084.075%50%25%0%-25%1801701601501401301201101009080ISM

New

OrdersYoYvs.Cass

Freight

Shipments

IndexYoY

ISMNewOrdersYoYCass

FreightShipmentsCass

Linehaul

Index

January

2005=

100ATATotal

Loads

Index

(Seasonally

Adjusted)

YoYChange(RHS)

Total

Loads

IndexSA(LHS)CassFre

ight

Sh

ipments

Index

YoYISMNew

Orders

YoY100%Truck&Components:

CapacityTighteningJan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2026

2025

2024

2023

Average

Last5YearJan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2026

2025

2024

2023

Average

Last5YearSource:DAT,J.P.MorganSource:DAT,J.P.Morgan100%95%90%85%80%Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec90.075.060.045.030.015.00.010.09.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.020.018.016.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0

2026

2025

2024

2023Average

Last5YearSource:DAT,J.P.

MorganSource:FTR,J.P.

MorganFlatbed

Load-To-Truck

RatioReefer

Load-To-Truck

RatioVan

Load-To-Truck

RatioActiveTruck

Utilization19(%)NAClass8

NetOrders

Up90%YoY

in

1Q

(Including

MarchPreliminaryOrders);

Builds

Down34%

in

1QTD(Through

February)Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2023

2024

2025

2026

Average

Last5-YearClass

8

Builds

-Currentvs.AverageJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2026202520242023

Average

Last

5YearClass

8

Backlog-to-Build

-Currentvs.Average50,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000030%25%20%15%10%5%0%12.0x11.0x10.0x9.0x8.0x7.0x6.0x5.0x4.0x3.0x2.0xJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2026202520242023

Average

Last5YearJan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2026

2025

2024

2023

Average

Last5Year.

.20Class

8

Cancellation

Rate

(%Of

New

Orders)

-Current

vs.AverageSourceforallcharts:ACT

ResearchandJPMorganClass

8

NetOrders

-Currentvs.AverageNAClass8

RetailSales

Down22%YoYin

1QTD

(Through

February);Class8Straight

Builds

Down34%&

Net

Orders

Up

51%Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2026

2025

2024

2023

Average

Last5YearClass

8

Builds

-Currentvs.AverageJan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec 2026

2025

2024

2023

Average

Last5YearClass

8

Straight

Truck

Net

Orders

-Current

vs.Average40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00005.5x5.0x4.5x4.0x3.5x3.0x2.5x2.0x1.5x1.0x40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 2026202520242023

Average

Last5YearSourceforallcharts:ACT

ResearchandJ.P.Morgan21JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2026202520242023

Average

Last

5YearClass

8

Inventory-to-Sales

-Currentvs.AverageClass

8

Retail

Sales

-Currentvs.AverageNA

Class5-7Orders

Up8%YoY

in

1Q,

Builds

Down

14%

in

1QTD;Class6-7Truck

Builds

Down39%

in

1QTD,Sales

Down

32%Jan

Feb

Mar

AprMay

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2023

2024

2025

2026

Average

Last5-YearClass

6-7Truck

Builds

-Current

vs.AverageJanFeb

Mar

AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 2023202420252026

Average

Last5-YearClass

6-7Truck

Sales

-Current

vs.Average35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000012,00010,0008,0006,0004,000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 202620252024