房地产 -新西兰住宅估价师洞察 2026年第二季度 New Zealand Residential Valuer Insights – Q2 2026

IntelligentInvestment

softerhousingmnarke⃞dennand

Housingvaluesareexpectedtoremainstable

Littlegrowthexpectedforlifestyleproperties

Firsthonnebuyersstrengthenedtheirdominance

vacantlandexpectedtobemostlystable

standalonepropertiesarethemostpopular

somemoderationinsupplyexpectations

stabilityexpectedaroundfuturedemnand

ThecBREResearchQ22026ResidentialvaluationspropertyMarketsurvey

wasconductedinmid-Juneof2026.Atotalof51responseswerereceived.valuerlocationsare:

Recentdemand

CBRE'sresidentialvaluershavereportedsofter

demandconditionsoverthepastquarter.comparedtoQ12026where72%ofrespondentssaidtheirlocalhousingmarketwasbalanced,Q2sawthisfigure

declinetobe56%.Theproportionwhoreportedsoftdemandconditionshasmorethandoubledandno

valuersreporteddemandintheirlocalmarkettobestrongduringthemostrecentquarter.

MarketsinthesouthIslandhaveseenabitof

changecomparedtoQ1whenelementsofdemandstrengthwerereportedforcanterburyand

southland.BothoftheseregionshavemoderatedinQ2,andQueenstownandotagohavereported

softnesswheretheypreviouslyhadmoremoderatelevelsofdemand.

Economicuncertaintyandincreasedinflationinhouseholdlivingexpensesarelimitingmarket

demand."waikato

"salesactivitywithinthelocalNewplymouthmarkethasremainedsteadybutsomewhatpricesensitive."

mmTaranaki

"clearlyabuyersmarket."Nelson

"Themarketonthewholeisconsideredbalancedwithsteadytransactionvolumes."Queenstown

FIGURE1:Nationalhousingdemand

FIGURE2:Regionalhousingdemandpercentageofrespondents

atopbuyergroup,andinourmostrecentsurveythisdominancehasstrengthenedagain,risingto98%ofvaluersreportingthemasakeyparticipantinQ22026.

severalothergroupshaveseendeclinescomparedtoQ1data.upgradershavehadthemostsignificantdecline,with14%ofvaluersreportingthemasactivecomparedto56%inQ1.Investors,downsizers,anddevelopershaveseenminor

proportionaldeclineshoweveractivityfromrecentoverseasmigrantshasincreased.

"Lotsoffirsthomebuyerscurrently."mmNorthland

"Mostactivebuyersinmyareaarefirsthomebuyerslookingattownhousesandutilizingthelowequity

lendingonnewbuilds."Auckland

"Majorityofactivityinthefirsthomebuyersmarket."-waikato

"Mainlyfirsthomebuyersofrecentlyrenovatedhomes."Rotorua

"Largelydrivenbythefirsthomebuyermarket."HawkesBay

Marketisstablewithastrongfirsthomebuyerpresence."Manawatu

"Firsthomebuyersandupgradersarethelargestgroupofpurchasersinthewellingtonmarketatpresent."wellington

"Firsthomebuyeranddownsizeractivityremainsgoodfortwoandthreebedroomdwellingsand

townhouses"Nelson

"Firsthomebuyersaredominantbutselective"Marlborough

FIGURE3:Activebuyergroups

standalonehouses,recentlyrenovatedproperties,andnew

standalonedwellingshaveexperiencedanincreaseindemand.

IneachofourpastyearssurveysandinQ22026,standalonehomescontinuedtoexperienceincreasesindemand.

unrenovatedpropertiesweresimilartoprevioussurveyswheretheyexperienceddecreasesindemandhoweverthatdecreaseappearstohavestrengthenedinthemostrecentquarter.

vacantland,terracehousesanddwellingsaffectedbyadverseriskoffloodingorlandslipseachsawadecreasesindemandinthemostrecentsurvey·

UItappearsthatdevelopersarebeginningtore-engagewiththemarket,takingadvantageofreasonablypriceddevelopment

sitesandinitiatingnewprojects"Auckland

"Firsthomebuyersarestartingtodiscountdwellingsthatarenotmodernised."waikato

"peoplearemoreawareofnaturalhazardsandhaveinsuranceconcerns."-Tauranga

"vacantlandcontinuestohavelowlevelsofdemand."Taranaki

"Thereisaflighttoquality.purchasersarepreparedtopayabitmoreforalreadyrenovatedproperties."wellington

FIGURE4:Demandchangebytypology

IncreaseindemandDecreaseindemand

standaloneHouses RecentlyRenovatedpropertiespropertiesinprime(highervalue)locations

units NewstandaloneDwellingsNew'AttachedHousing'Dwellings

prestigeHomes Developmentsitespropertiesinsecondary(lowervalue)locationsLifestyleproperties

TerraceHouses

unrenovatedproperties vacantLand servicedApartments/AirbnbRentals BachesforowneroccupiersAffectedbyadverseriskofflooding/landslipsetc

0%10%20%30%40%

10%20%30%40%50%60%

Q22026

percentageofrespondents

50%

Note:respondentswereabletoselectmultipleoptions(upto4)

Housevalues

Aroundtwothirds(68%)ofvaluerssurveyedexpecthousevaluesintheirareatoremainstableinthenext12months.

Afurther20%expectpricestodecreasebyupto5%,a

notableincreasefromthe6%recordedlastquarter.This6%thatwasrecordedintheQ1resultswasnotableforbeing

thefirsttimeinrecentsurveysthatanyvaluershadforecastadeclineintheirmarket,andthatsentimentappearstohavestrengthenedfurtherduringQ2.

only12%ofvaluersexpectpriceincreasesovertheyearahead,amuchsmallerproportionthanlastyearssurveywhenoverhalfwereexpectingfuturepricegrowth.

Fullimpactoflatestgeopoliticaleventsandassociatedinflation/increasedinterestratesyettoflowthroughfullyintolocalmarket."Northland

"In2027,ifatleastonewarissortedwemayfinallyseeasmallupliftinvalues."Auckland

"Highlevelofuncertaintyingreaterwellington.costofliving,jobsecurity,wars,upcomingelectionandinterestratescontinuetoimpactbuyerdecisionmaking."

wellington

weexpectinterestfromotherpartsofthecountryto

continueandhelpmaintainpropertyvaluesattheleast,ifnotincreasedemandoverthesecondhalfoftheyear."canterbury

FIGURE5:Nationalhousepriceexpectations

FIGURE6:Regionalhousepriceexpectationspercentageofrespondents

overallsentimentremainsbroadlysteadyforlifestyle

propertiesvalueswith72%ofvaluersexpectingpricesto

remainstableoverthenext12months,upfrom68%inQ1

2026.Growthexpectationshaveeased,with11%anticipatingmodestincreasesofupto5%,comparedwithmorethan

doublethatfigureduringlastquarter.Thesameproportion(11%)expectvaluestofallbyupto5%.

valueexpectationsintheAucklandmarketarepolarised

withsubmarketsexpectingeitherstronggainsorfallsinthe5to10%rangeintheyearahead.

"Themarketwillremainrelativelystablewithsome

uncertaintystillinsomeareasleadinguptotheelection."Northland

"Thereisasensethatlocalsentimentmaybeturningmorepositive,however,aftersomethreeyearsofsurgesandlullsinactivityandvaluelevelsitcouldjustbeanothergentle

wave."waikato

"Geopoliticalenvironment,risingcostsandinterestratesplusupcomingelectionexpecttoimpactthemarketthisyearwithminimalincrease(ifany)inpricesexpected"Rotorua

"Itisvery'steadyasitgoes'."-canterbury

"Apositiveruraleconomyatpresentwithhighercommoditypricesespeciallyfromdairy."southland

FIGURE7:Nationallifestylepropertypriceexpectations

FIGURE8:Regionallifestylepropertypriceexpectations

percentageofrespondents

vacantlandvalues

Demandforvacantlandcloselyreflectdevelopment

conditions.whenprojectsarenotviable,developers

demandreduces,puttingdownwardspressureonvacantlandprices.

Althoughmarketconditionshavebeendifficultinthepastfewyears,72%ofvaluersexpectvacantlandvaluesintheirareatoremainstableoverthenext12months.

outsideofthemainstreamview,valuersinNorthland,

canterbury,andotagoareexpectingsmallincreasesin

valueandvaluersinAucklandandwellingtonareexpectingsmalldecreases.

subdivisionenquiriesincreasingforpeopleholdingandneedingtofinance,sonotnecessarilyreadytogo"

Northland

"Afterupsanddownsoverthepastyear,theoverallmarketappearstoberelativelystable."waikato

"Thereisalimitedsupplycurrentlyofvacantlandin

palmerstonNorthcitywhilenewsubdivisionsarereadilyavailableinFeildingandLevin."Manawatu

"Increasedactivityforinfilldevelopmentsitesisnotedwithsomeestablishingnewbenchmarks,wherethelandcan

supportvisitorAccommodationuses."mmQueenstown

FIGURE9:Nationalvacantlandpriceexpectations

FIGURE10:Regionalvacantlandpriceexpectations

percentageofrespondents

Futuredemand

Demandexpectationsinthelatestsurveyhavedeclined

comparedtothoserecordedpreviously.26%ofvaluersexpectdemandtoincreaseslightlyoverthecomingyear,compared

to53%inQ12026and62%inQ42025.Asimilarproportion(24%)expectdemandtodecreaseslightlyoverthecomingyear.Theremaining50%ofvaluersexpectstabilityintheirlocaloutlookforhousingdemand.

Aucklandandwaikatoappeartohavesubmarketdifferences,withvaluersreportingexpectationsforbothincreasesand

decreasesindemandovertheyearahead.

withlowerandmorestableinterestrates,firsthomebuyersknowwhattheycanaffordandaretryingtogetonthe

ladder."Auckland

"Manyagentsarenowlistingpropertiesforsaleby

negotiationastheyarehopingthedemandwillincrease."waikato

"Localsalesprofessionalsanticipateconsistentsalesvolumeandstablepricinginthecomingmonths,indicatinga

balancedmarket."HawkesBay

"NewDunedinhospitaldevelopmentisexpectedtosupportmediumtolongertermeconomicgrowth."otago

FIGURE11:Nationalhousingdemandoutlook

FIGURE12:Regionalhousingdemandoutlookpercentageofrespondents

DecreaseslightlyRemainthesameIncreaseslightly

Expectationsoffuturesupplyofnewlistingstothemarketaremostlyunchangedsincelastquarter,withslightlyfewervaluersexpectingincreasesordecreasesandslightlymoreexpectingsupplytoremainthesame.

Moremarketsexpectanincreaseinlistingsthanadecrease.onlyNorthland,waikato,andwellingtonvaluersare

expectingslightdecreasesinthesupplyofnewlistings

howeverthesemarketslackconsensuswithothervaluersintheseareasexpectingsupplytoincreaseslightly.

"Numberofmortgageesaleshasincreasedsignificantlyinthepastcoupleofmonths."-Rotorua

projectsacrossNapier,Hastings,andcentralHawkesBay.Developmentsrangefromsomegreenfieldstomanysmallerinfillprojects."HawkesBay

"Manycontractsaresubjecttothesaleofanotherproperty."Manawatu

"Moremumanddadinvestorsarewantingtoputtheir

propertyonthemarketwithconcernsofupcomingelectionandcapitalgainstax."wellington

"veryfewspechousesarebeingconstructedduetohighbuildcostsvslowmargins/profit."-Nelson

FIGURE13:Nationalhousingsupplyofnewlistings

FIGURE14:Regionalhousingsupplyofnewlistings

zoltan.Moricz@cbre.com

craig.Russellqcbre.com

T

katrina.Lukac@cbre.com.au

©Copyright2026.Allrightsreserved.Thisreporthasbeenpreparedingoodfaith,basedonCBRE’scurrentanecdotalandevidencebasedviewsofthecommercialreal