2025年平准化能源成本报告 Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

LEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGY+

June2025

WITHSUPPORTFROM

CONFIDENTIALLC+

TableofContents

IEXECUTIVESUMMARY

3

IIENERGYGENERATION

5

ALazard’sLevelizedCostofEnergyAnalysis—Version18.0

6

IIIENERGYSTORAGE

16

ALazard’sLevelizedCostofStorageAnalysis—Version10.0

17

IVENERGYSYSTEM

25

ACostofFirmingIntermittency

26

VAPPENDIX

31

ALCOEv18.0

32

BLCOSv10.0

41

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

CONFIDENTIALLC+

ExecutiveSummary

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

I

+

IEXECUTIVESUMMARY

ExecutiveSummary—SelectedKeyFindingsfromLazard’s2025LCOE+

Lazard’s2025LCOE+Reportisorganizedaroundthreekeyareas:EnergyGeneration,EnergyStorageandtheEnergySystem

Energy

Generation

LevelizedCostofEnergyVersion18.0

•RenewablesRemainCompetitive:Onanunsubsidized$/MWhbasis,renewableenergyremainsthemostcost-competitiveformofgeneration.Assuch,renewableenergywillcontinuetoplayakeyroleinthebuildoutofnewpowergenerationintheU.S.Thisisparticularlytrueinthecurrenthighpowerdemandenvironment,

whererenewablesstandoutasboththelowest-costandquickest-to-deploygenerationresource

•IncreasingCompetitivenessofExistingGasGeneration:ThegapbetweentheLCOEofnewwindandsolarandthemarginalcostofoperatingCCGTshaswideneddueto,amongotherthings,persistentlowgasprices,highenergydemandandincreasingrenewableLCOEs

•SignificantShiftsExpected:Unlessotherwiseindicated,Lazard’sLCOEisanLTManalysisfocusedon“today”andisnotaforecastingtool.Assuch,theoutcomesincludedhereinarerepresentativeofcurrentdevelopmentandconstructiontimelines,whichvarybytechnology.Forexample,whilethisyear’sanalysisshowsonlyaslightincreaseintheLCOEofCCGTs,turbineshortages,risingcostsandlongleadtimesareexpectedtodrivesteepLCOEincreasesforgastechnologiesinthenearterm,asillustratedherein.Additionally,costdeclinesacrossVogtleunits3and4indicatenuclearispoisedtobenefitfromscaleanddevelopmentefficiencies

EnergyStorage

LevelizedCostofStorageVersion10.0

•StorageCostDecline:Thisyear’sanalysisshowsnotabledeclinesintheLCOSofutilityscaleandC&Ibatteryenergystoragesystems.Keydriversofsuchresultsincludebothmarketdynamics(e.g.,lower-than-expectedEVdemandandtheresultingoversupplyofcells)andtechnologicaladvancements(e.g.,increasedcellcapacityandenergydensity)

•TariffsIncreaseUncertainty:Whilecurrentpricingisfurtherbenefitingfromaggressivecompetition,wideningLCOSspreadsindicateincreasedvolatilityas

uncertaintyrelatedtotheultimatetariffregimeisshapingmarketdynamicsinrealtime.Forexample,supplychainrelocationtoSoutheastAsiaandIndiaiswellunderway,andmarketparticipantsareexecutingonforwardprocurementstrategiestomitigatefuturepricingrisk

•MarketExpansionIsUnderway:TheLCOSvaluesnapshotsshowincreasedreturnsreflectingtheconfluenceoflowercostsandhigherpricesinseveralregions.

EnergystorageadoptionisexpandingbeyondISO/RTO-drivenwholesalemarketsandintostateswheremunicipalprocurementanddatacentergrowthisprevalent(e.g.,Arizona,Colorado,Florida).Lazardexpectscontinuedexpansionasbackuppowerandgridresiliencebecomeincreasinglyimportantinhigh-growthmarkets

EnergySystem

CostofFirmingIntermittency

•FirmingValueRisesasRenewablePenetrationIncreases:Thecostoffirminghelpsgridoperatorsevaluateresourcesbasedonaregion’sexistinggenerationmix

andloadcharacteristics,ensuringtherightbalancebetweenreliabilityandaffordability.Theresultsofthisyear’sfirminganalysisshowthatasthepenetrationoflow-costintermittentgenerationincreases,thevalueoffirmcapacityrises

•ISOApproachestoSystemAnalysisAreEvolving:Severalindependentsystemoperatorsareadjustingtheircapacityaccreditationmethodologiesinwaysthataregenerallyincreasingfirmingcosts.BothCAISOandPJMhavereducedcapacityaccreditationvaluesforhighlycorrelatedresources(e.g.,solarandshorter-durationstorage).Continueddevelopmentofmoresophisticatedcapacityaccreditationframeworks,suchasincorporationofseasonaladjustmentsordiversitybenefits,

couldhavematerialimpactsonfuturefirmingcosts

•DiverseGenerationSourcesandInnovationAreNeeded:TheresultsofLazard’sLCOE+haveconsistentlysupporteddeployingadiversemixofenergyresources.Despitethesustainedunsubsidizedcostcompetitivenessofrenewableenergy,resourceplanningmetricsindicatediversegenerationfleetswillberequiredoverthelongtermtomeetpowerneeds,likelybolsteredbynow-emergingtechnologiessuchaslongdurationenergystorage,geothermal,nuclearsmallmodularreactors,

pumpedstoragehydropowerandcarboncaptureandstorage,amongothers

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

4

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

CONFIDENTIALLC+

EnergyGeneration

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

II

CONFIDENTIALLC+

Lazard’sLevelizedCostofEnergyAnalysis—Version18.0

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

A

EnergyGenerationEnergyStorageEnergySystem

LevelizedCostofEnergyLevelizedCostofStorageCostofFirmingIntermittency

+

ALAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION18.0

Introduction

Lazard’sLevelizedCostofEnergyanalysisaddressesthefollowingtopics:

•ComparativeLCOEanalysisforvariousgenerationtechnologiesona$/MWhbasis,includingsensitivitiesforU.S.federaltaxsubsidies,fuelprices,carbonpricingandcostofcapital

•IllustrationofhowtheLCOEofonshorewind,utility-scalesolarandhybridprojectscomparetothemarginalcostofselectedconventionalgenerationtechnologies

•HistoricalLCOEcomparisonofvarioustechnologies

•IllustrationofthehistoricalLCOEdeclinesforonshorewindandutility-scalesolar

•Appendixmaterials,including:

_AnoverviewofthemethodologyutilizedtoprepareLazard’sLCOEanalysis

_AsummaryoftheassumptionsutilizedinLazard’sLCOEanalysis

_DeconstructionoftheLCOEforvariousgenerationtechnologiesbycapitalcost,fixedoperationsandmaintenance(“O&M”)expense,variableO&Mexpenseandfuelcost

Otherfactorswouldalsohaveapotentiallysignificanteffectontheresultscontainedhereinbuthavenotbeenexaminedinthescopeofthiscurrentanalysis.

Theseadditionalfactors,amongothers,mayinclude:recenttariff-relatedcostimpacts;implementationandinterpretationofthefullscopeoftheIRA;economicpolicy,transmissionqueuereform,networkupgradesandothertransmissionmatters,congestion,curtailmentorotherintegration-relatedcosts;permittingor

otherdevelopmentcosts,unlessotherwisenoted;andcostsofcomplyingwithvariousenvironmentalregulations(e.g.,carbonemissionsoffsetsoremissions

controlsystems).Thisanalysisisintendedtorepresentasnapshotintimeandutilizesawide,butnotexhaustive,samplesetofIndustrydata.Assuch,we

recognizeandacknowledgethelikelihoodofresultsoutsideofourranges.Therefore,thisanalysisisnotaforecastingtoolandshouldnotbeusedassuchgiven

thecomplexitiesofourevolvingIndustry,gridandresourceneeds.Exceptasillustrativelysensitizedherein,thisanalysisdoesnotconsidertheintermittentnatureofselectedrenewablesenergytechnologiesortherelatedgridimpactsofincrementalrenewableenergydeployment.Thisanalysisalsodoesnotaddress

potentialsocialandenvironmentalexternalitiesincluding,forexample,thesocialcostsandrateconsequencesforthosewhocannotafforddistributed

generationsolutionsaswellasthelong-termresidualandsocietalconsequencesofvariousconventionalgenerationtechnologiesthataredifficulttomeasure(e.g.,airbornepollutants,greenhousegases,etc.).

LAZARD7

Copyright2025Lazard

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

EnergyGenerationEnergyStorageEnergySystem

LevelizedCostofEnergyLevelizedCostofStorageCostofFirmingIntermittency

+

ALAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION18.0

LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—Version18.0

Selectedrenewableenergygenerationtechnologiesremaincost-competitivewithconventionalgenerationtechnologiesundercertaincircumstances

5

.

SolarPV—Community&C&I$81$217

SolarPV—Utility$38$78

SolarPV+Storage—Utility1$50$131

Geothermal2$66$109

Wind—Onshore$37$86

Wind+Storage—Onshore1$44$123

Wind—Offshore$70$924$157

GasPeaking$1085$149$251

U.S.Nuclear2$345$141$1696$220$2286

Coal2$71$735$173

GasCombinedCycle$315$48$1077$109

$0$25$50$75$100$125$150$175$200$225$250$27

LevelizedCostofEnergy($/MWh)Source:Lazardestimatesandpubliclyavailableinformation

RenewableGeneration

ConventionalGeneration3

Note:Hereandthroughoutthisanalysis,unlessotherwiseindicated,theanalysisassumes60%debtatan8%interestrateand40%equityata12%cost.Seepagetitled“LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoCostofCapital”for

costofcapitalsensitivities.

1ReflectstheLCOEforasystemcomposedofstandalonegenerationplusstandalonestoragelessthecombinedsystem-levelsynergies(assumedtobe10%ofstoragecapitalcostsand25%ofinvertercosts).Thesynergiescapturepotentialcostreductionsorefficiencygainsfromintegratinggenerationandstorage,suchassharedinterconnectioninfrastructure,improvedenergydispatch,enhancedcapacityutilizationandoperationalefficiencies.

2Giventhelimitedpublicand/orobservabledataavailablefornew-buildgeothermal,coalandnuclearprojects,theLCOEpresentedhereinreflectsLazard’sLCOEv14.0resultsadjustedforinflationand,fornuclear,arebasedonthen-estimatedcostsoftheVogtlePlant.CoalLCOEdoesnotincludecostoftransportationandstorage.

3ThefuelcostassumptionsforLazard’sLCOEanalysisofgas-firedgeneration,coal-firedgenerationandnucleargenerationresourcesare$3.45/MMBTU,$1.47/MMBTUand$0.85/MMBTU,respectively,foryear-over-yearcomparisonpurposes.Seepagetitled“LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoFuelPrices”forfuelpricesensitivities.

4RepresentstheillustrativemidpointLCOEforDominion’sCoastalVirginiaOffshoreWind(“CVOW”)project,basedonthepubliclydisclosedcapitalcostof~$8.7billion(excludingonshoretransmissioncosts)andoffshorewindestimatesfromLazard.Dominion’sprojectedLCOEforCVOWasofFebruary2025is$91/MWhin2027dollars,withanexpectedCODin4Q2026.

5ReflectstheaverageofthehighandlowLCOEmarginalcostofoperatingfullydepreciatedgaspeaking,gascombinedcycle,coalandnuclearfacilities,inclusiveofdecommissioningcostsfornuclearfacilities.Analysisassumesthatthesalvagevalueforadecommissionedgasorcoalassetisequivalenttoitsdecommissioningandsiterestorationcosts.Inputsarederivedfromabenchmarkofoperatinggas,coalandnuclearassetsacrosstheU.S.Capacityfactors,fuel,variableandfixedoperatingexpensesarebasedonupper-andlower-quartileestimatesderivedfromLazard’sresearch.Seepagetitled“LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—NewBuildRenewableGenerationvs.MarginalCostof

ConventionalGeneration”foradditionaldetails.

8

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

6RepresentsillustrativeLCOEvaluesforVogtlenuclearplant’sunits3and4.Theanalysisisbasedonpubliclyavailableestimatesandsuggestionsfromselectedindustryexperts,indicatingacost“learningcurve”of~30%betweenVogtle

units3and4.Analysisassumestotaloperatingcapacityof~2.2GW,totalcapitalcostof~$32.3billion,capacityfactorof~97%,operatinglifeof70yearsandotheroperatingparametersestimatedbyLazard’sLCOEv14.0results,adjustedforinflation.

7Illustrativehighcasereflectselevatedcapitalcosts($2,400/kW–$2,600/kW)basedonrecentlyobservedmarketquotesforCCGTprojectsinearlystagesofdevelopment(post-2028COD).

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

EnergyGenerationEnergyStorageEnergySystem

LevelizedCostofEnergyLevelizedCostofStorageCostofFirmingIntermittency

+

ALAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION18.0

LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoU.S.FederalTaxSubsidies

TheInvestmentTaxCredit(“ITC”),ProductionTaxCredit(“PTC”)andEnergyCommunityadder,amongotherprovisionsintheIRA,areimportantcomponentsoftheLCOEforrenewableenergytechnologies

RenewableGeneration

$217

SolarPV—Community&C&ISolarPV—Community&C&I(ITC)

SolarPV—UtilitySolarPV—Utility(ITC)

SolarPV—Utility(PTC) SolarPV+Storage—UtilitySolarPV+Storage—Utility(ITC)

GeothermalGeothermal(ITC)Wind—Onshore

Wind—Onshore(PTC) Wind+Storage—OnshoreWind+Storage—Onshore(ITC)

Wind—Offshore

Wind—Offshore(PTC)

$81

$178

$78

$24$20

$131

$111

$109

$93

$86

$75

$123

$103

$157

$141

$37$15

$44$21

$66$44

$70$52

$51

$38

$57

$45

$50

$33

$0$25$50$75$100$125$150$175$200$225$250$275$300

LevelizedCostofEnergy($/MWh)

nLCOEr.Subsidized(incl.EnergyCommunity)1Subsidized(excl.EnergyCommunity)2

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

Source:Note:

1

2

Lazardestimatesandpubliclyavailableinformation.

Unlessotherwiseindicated,thisanalysisdoesnotincludeotherstateorfederalsubsidies(e.g.,domesticcontentadder,etc.).TheIRAisacomprehensiveandevolvingpieceoflegislationthatisstillbeingimplementedandremainssubjecttointerpretation—importantelementsoftheIRAarenotincludedinouranalysisandcouldimpactoutcomes.Lazard’sLCOEanalysisassumes,foryear-over-yearreferencepurposes,60%debtatan8%interestrateand40%equityata

12%cost(togetherimplyinganafter-taxIRR/WACCof7.7%).

ThissensitivityanalysisassumesthatprojectsqualifyforthefullITC/PTC,haveacapitalstructurethatincludessponsorequity,debtandtaxequityandassumestheequityownerhastaxableincometomonetizethetaxcreditsandalsoincludesanEnergyCommunityadderof10%forITCprojectsand$3/MWhforPTCprojects.

ThissensitivityanalysisassumesthatprojectsqualifyforthefullITC/PTC,haveacapitalstructurethatincludessponsorequity,debtandtaxequityandassumestheequityownerhastaxableincometomonetizethetaxcredits.

9

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

EnergyGenerationEnergyStorageEnergySystem

LevelizedCostofEnergyLevelizedCostofStorageCostofFirmingIntermittency

ALAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION18.0

LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoFuelPrices

VariationsinfuelpricescanmateriallyimpacttheLCOEofconventionalgenerationtechnologies

$44

$70

$67

$41

$0$25$50$75$100

LCOE

SolarPV—Community&C&I

SolarPV—UtilitySolarPV+Storage—Utility

Geothermal

Wind—Onshore

Wind+Storage—Onshore

Wind—Offshore

GasPeaking

U.S.Nuclear

Coal

GasCombinedCycle

$217

$131

$109

$123

$157

$138

$138

$179

$116

$125$150$175$200$225$250$275

LevelizedCostofEnergy($/MWh)

+/-25%FuelPriceAdjustment

$81

$38

$50

$66

$37

RenewableGeneration

ConventionalGeneration

$262

$222

$78

$86

1

2

3

1

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

Source:Lazardestimatesandpubliclyavailableinformation.

Note:Unlessotherwisenoted,theassumptionsusedinthissensitivitycorrespondtothoseusedintheLCOEanalysisaspresentedonthepagetitled“LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—Version18.0”.

1Assumesafuelcostrangeforgas-firedgenerationresourcesof$2.59/MMBTU–$4.31/MMBTU(representingasensitivityrangeof±25%ofthe$3.45/MMBTUusedintheLCOE).

2Assumesafuelcostrangefornucleargenerationresourcesof$0.64/MMBTU–$1.06/MMBTU(representingasensitivityrangeof±25%ofthe$0.85/MMBTUusedintheLCOE).

3Assumesafuelcostrangeforcoal-firedgenerationresourcesof$1.10/MMBTU–$1.84/MMBTU(representingasensitivityrangeof±25%ofthe$1.47/MMBTUusedintheLCOE).

10

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

EnergyGenerationEnergyStorageEnergySystem

LevelizedCostofEnergyLevelizedCostofStorageCostofFirmingIntermittency

+

ALAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION18.0

LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoCarbonPricing

Carbonpricingisoneavenueforpolicymakerstoaddresscarbonemissions;acarbonpricerangeof$40–$60/Ton1ofcarbonwouldincreasetheLCOEforcertainconventionalgenerationtechnologies,asindicatedbelow

$78

$131

$109

$86

$123

$157$149

$173$141

$173

$217

$251

$291$220

SolarPV—Community&C&ISolarPV—Utility

SolarPV+Storage—Utility GeothermalWind—Onshore

Wind+Storage—OnshoreWind—OffshoreGasPeaking

GasPeakingw/CarbonPricing2

U.S.Nuclear

Coal

Coalw/CarbonPricing2

$0$25$50$75$100$125$150$175$200$225$250$275$300

LevelizedCostofEnergy($/MWh)

LCOELCOEwithCarbonPricing

$81$38

$50

$66$37

$44

$70

$71

RenewableGeneration

ConventionalGeneration

GasCombinedCycle

GasCombinedCyclew/CarbonPricing2

$108$249

$109

$132

$48

$63

LAZARD

Copyright2025Lazard

Source:Lazardestimatesandpubliclyavailableinformation.

Note:Unlessotherwisenoted,theassumptionsusedinthissensitivitycorrespondtothoseusedintheLCOEanalysisaspresentedonthepagetitled“LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—Version18.0”.LCOEwithCarbonPricingislimitedto

carbonemissionsdirectlyrelatedtogenerationanddoesnotincludetheimpactsofcarbonpricingonembodiedcarbon.

1Thecurrentadministrationnolongermaintainsanestimateofthemonetizedimpactsofgreenhousegasemissions.Pre