全球互联网：人工智能模型的商业化框架和市场细分

AIintoourday-to-dayworkflows.Thatsaid,severalrecenteventsstrikeusasbnoteworthyasfarasAIcompetitionandROIisconcerned.ThClaudeFable5pricingcausingdevstorationusagefeelslikeanotabledevelopment.SeealsoheadlinespointingtoOpenAIpotentiallycuttingpricesintelligencenecessarilyconverging,weincreasinglythinkAImodelcommoditisabedrivenbyhumanuserperceptionacrossvariousenduses,andthetimelineonwhichcompetingmodelsbecome“consumer-focusedAI(orderingquickly.EnterpriseusecaseslikecodingandExcelworkaremorecomplex,andwilltakelongertosolve.Solvingfrontierscience(e.g.defence,healthcare,nuclearfusion,spaceAIsupportingagivenusecasebecomes“goodenough”,we’dexpectthearbitecompetitionandmarketsharetoshiftfromOurbasecaseistheUSfrontierlabscontinuetounlocknewmodelcapabicommandarisingpricepremiumamongincreasinglyspecialisedcustomers.DatasecurityconcernsandglobalgeopoliticslikelypreventsomeUSandEuropeanenterprisesfromdeployingChinesemodels.Butelsewherewe’dexpecttheChineseAIlabstotakeshare,serving“goodenough”reasoningcapabilitiesatsignificantlylowerprices.itcheaperfortheUSfrontierlabstoservetokens,anddriveitwouldsurpriseusiftrailingedgeAIdidn'tbecomeanothersectorwhereChinesecompetitiontakesmarketshare,inpartthankstoawillingnesstoacceptlowerpriceChineseAIlabsneedtodolessexploratoryresearch.Ourmarketsegmentationsuggeststheyshouldbeabletoaccess35-40%oftheglobalAITAM-eventakinggeopoliticalconstraintsintoconsideration,andassumicommoditisationbeingdrivenbytaskcompletionanAIlabeconomicsmightactuallybereasonablyhopeful.Onceausecasebecomes“solved”canberedirectedelsewherealongthefrontier.Overtime,we’usecasesworthspendingexponentiallyhigheramountstosolvewillnarrow…meaningaggregatemodeltrainingcostsrisemoreslowSeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.FirstPublished:11Jun202620:30UTCCompletionDate:11Jun202614:34UTCRobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June202611Jun2026AdjustedEPSAdjustedP/E(x)TickerTickerCurCurClosingPriceCur2025A2026E2027E2025A2026E2027EPrice700.HK(Tencent)457.20780.00(47.3)%CNY28.0930.0034.9115.38180.00(23.7)%CNY65.4126.8246.5712.029.116.89988.HK(Alibaba)107.40176.00(44.8)%8.823.696.6810.525.213.91,920.52SPX7,266.99Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.makingtoken-maxxinguneconomicwasn’tnecessarilyonourlistofhigh-likelihoodethetimelineonwhichAIdevsandusersstarttoexamineAIROImoreclosely.Thmodelstomatchthemarginalcostoftokenstothemarginalbenefquality-of-lifeaspectslikeresponsetimesandmodel“personality”)makessensetous.Totakethingsonestepfurther,ourmentalframeworkbecomesreliableatscaleasperceivedbyhumanusers,asopposedtosomeacademicmeasureofunderlyingconvergence.OnceagenticAI“solves”variousverticalusecases,we’dexpectthearbiterofcompetitiontoshiftfromreasoningcapabilitiesandtaskcompletiontomoremundanevariacommerciallyexceptinthecaseofspecialisedusecases.Longerterm,wethinkit’slogicaworkloadsbecomeincreasinglyspecialisedandnovel,whileanarrowerfieldofcustomersexhibitshighwillingnesstopay;and(2)amarketfortrailingedgeAIthatservesmoremundaneenterpriseandconsumerendusreasoningdrivesadoption-andshareshifts.Consumer-orientedAIshouldbeoneofthefirstenduseswhereawiderangeofplayersachieve“goodenough”status,forexample.TencentO465.604.5xMMOOOAlibabaO46.02VIPshop4.9xT47.97OOO400,000UAmazonAlphabet4,320,7054.8x4.1xSpotify4.1xPricingdateJune3,2026.ThevaluationmultiplesofourChinaandAsianInternetcoveragearebasedonBernsteinestimates;theothercompaniesshownreflectBloombergconsensusestimates.Source:Corporatereports,Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.RobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026whenitcomestotheeconomicvalueassociatedwithfrontierintelligence,aandAnthropic.Ourownviewsonthistopichavemeanderedovertime.Butweincreasinglyperceptionsofintelligence,andwhentaskcompletionbecomes“goodenough”forvariousverticals,andreliableatscale…regardlessofwhethertheunderlyingtechnecessarilyconvergesfullyinastrictacademicsense(seeExhibit2).AsAImodelperformancecontinuestoimprove,andagentictaskcompletionhorizonslengthen,we’dexpectabroadeningrangeoftaskstobecomepossibletoanacceptabledegreeofaccuracy,andthendeployableatscale.Thisisespeciallytrueifweassumeguardrailslikeuserconfirmationoftransactionsareembeddedintheworkflow,whichhelpstoring-fencethedownsidetoreasoningerrors.AsofJune2026,AI-generatedimagesandvideosarealreadyincreasinglydifficulttodistinguishversustherealthing.Tencent’sWeixinagenticAIannouncement-andAlibaba’seffortswithinitsQwenapp-sofbubbletea,flighttickets,orT-shirtswillsoonbecomereadyforcommercialdeploymreliableatscale,thereturntodoingmoreR&Dontheseendusesdropsdramaticenergytowardsmorecomplextasks.Onarelativebasis,we’dexpectmostconsumerusecasesfordeterministicenterpriseworkloads(e.g.Excelwork,imamorecomplexstrategicplanning,andfieldslikecybersecurity(e.g.ProjectGlasswing),advancedenjetssupportedbyautonomousdroneswarms),andfrontierscience(drugdiscovery,nuclearfusion,spaceexploration).opensource,wheredifferencesincapabilitiesdivergeperiodically,drivenbyaccesstocomputeandfrontierR&Dunlockingnewcapabilities.ItfeelsplausibletousforexamplethattheUSfrontierlabsmovingfgenerationsofchipswillatleastmomentarilytheorywe’veheardofmodelconvergence,wheremodelintelligencesomehowasymptotes,ourviewisthattinintelligencealmostcertainlythenre-convergesovertime,astechnologydiffusiontakesplace.6-12monthsisaneternityonoftenslow-movinggearsofenterprisebureaucracy.Inpracticalterms,we’dexpectAImodelstocommoditiseatdifferentspeedsindifferentverticalusecases.Consumerusecaseslikelycommoditisefirst,followedbygeneralistbusinessusecasesdependingonthelevelofdeterministicaccuracyrequiredintheoutput,e.g.brainstorminodoubtthatadvancingAIcapabilitieswillrevolutionisedevelopment,thoughgamesuccesswillstillbeinflstrengthandthefuzzynatureofcreativequality.Butwe’vebeenverysurprisedbythespeedatwhproliferated.ThelastverticalsofAIusetobeconsideredcommoditywillprobablycentrearoundfrdiscovery,nuclearfusion,orspaceexploration,wherehighlyspecialised(andlikelyincreasinglysovereign)endusershaveRobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June20265ModelModelcapabilityIntrinsicmodelcapability"Goodenough"PerceivedmodelcapabilityTimeSource:Bernsteinanalysis.OnceagenticAI“solves”variousverticalusecases,we’dexpectthearbiterofcompetitiontoshiftfromtaskcompleticonsumedsomethinglike2bntokensinthepastmonth),offloadingsimplertaslogicinpayingforClaudeFable5tokenstoorderbubbleteaorT-shirts.Ourownuseofagentitokensconsumedinthelastcoupleofmonths)hasbeenelucidating,andaddedtoourconvictionthacrossarangeofAImodelstomatchtcapabilitiesandcostoffrontiermodelsmeanstheyaremostlikelyusedtoaddressthemostvaluableandmission-criticalucase,whilesimplertasksarehandedofftocheaper“goodenough”models(seeExhibit3).Ifwe’rerightontheacaseisUSleadersremaintheglobalSOTA,andadvancingagenticAIcapabilitiesunlocknew,morecomplexusecaseswcommandhigherpricingfromhighissueslikedatasecurityconcernstomeanameaningfulcohortofenterprisecustomers(saysomepercentageoftheFortune500,andlargeenterprisesinotherdevelopedmarkets)findtheideaofusingaChinesemodelunpalatable,leavinOutsidethisperimeterhowever,foragrowingenvelopeoflaggingedgeworkloads,especiallyouChineseAIlabs’muchlowertokencoststoproveattractive,andownintosovereign/publicsectorworkloads,largeenterprises,andSMEsandhobbyists.We’veassumedtheUSmarketcustomersarepayingprolificallyforDeepSeek,butwe’rehagreaterenterpriseandhobbyistappetiteforadoption,butexcludedthesovereign/publicsectormarkets.Intherestoftheworldex.China,we’veassumedgenerallyhigherlevelsofappeExhibit5showshowwethinktheAIrevenueTAMaccessibletotheChinalabsbreaksdownwithinthebroader$1tnorsoofglobalTAM.Collectively,theblueaccessiblemarketstotal$320bnofrevenueTAM,oraround35-40%oftheglobaltotal.RobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026Frontiervs.trailingedgShareofShareofmarketTimeTrailingedgeAIFrontierAISource:CorporatereportsandBernsteinanalysis.RegionCustomertypeAccessibilityCommentsGovernmentAssumedinaccessibleforobviousgeopoliticalreasonsLargeenterpriseLikelyreputationalanddatasecurityconcernsassociatedwithuseofChineseAImodelEuropeEuropeAirbnbonrecordashavingusedQwenmodelPrivatesector/start-upsModerateModerateSomeaccessislikelypossible,discountedforconservatismMinimaxcountsCanva,Twitter/XamongitsoverseascustomersPro-sumers/hobbyistsHighHighWidespreaduseofChineseAImodelsduetolowertokenpricesGovernmentAssumedinaccessibleforgeopoliticalreasonsLargeenterpriseModerateModerateLikelyreputationalanddatasecurityconcernsassociatedwithuseofChineseAImodel,thoughperhapsnottothesameextentastheUSRestofworldPrivatesector/start-upsModerateModerateSomeaccessislikelypossiblePro-sumers/hobbyistsHighHighOngoinguseofChineseAImodelsduetolowertokenpricesGovernmentModerateModerateLikelygreaterappetiteforengagementwithChineseAIlabsZ.aisupportingsoverignAIprojectsinMalaysia,expandingtoMiddleEastLargeenterpriseModerateModerateAssumedlowerriskofgeopoliticalheadwindstoadoption,greatersensitivitytolowerAItokenpricesPrivatesector/start-upsHighHighOngoinguseofChineseAImodelsduetolowertokenpricesPro-sumers/hobbyistsHighHighOngoinguseofChineseAImodelsduetolowertokenpricesSource:CorporatereportsandBernsteinanalysis.RobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026900800700500400300200$350bnaccessible38%ofglobalTAM?USEuropeChinaSource:CorporatereportsandBernsteinanalysis.reasonablyhopeful.ThevariableeconomicsofAImodelinferencearegenerallyrespectabletoverystrong.IntheforeseeablefutureweexpectR&DspendamongChina’stopAIlabstocontinuetoriserapidly-50%CAGRforfiveyearswasdescribedas“unsurprising”whenwefloatedtheideawithOvertimethough,we’rehopefultheabilityofthesecompaniestofocustheirmodeltrainingbudgetsamodelmodalitiesandenddollarsspentwilllikelycontinuetotrailUSpeersbyawthesmartuseofclustersoflaggingedgechips.respectabletostrongformostAIlabs.OperatingexpensesshouldremainrelativelymodestinanenvironmentwheresuperiorreasoningcRobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026ComplexityComplexityofR&DFrontierscience(e.g.drugdiscovery,quantumphysics)Advancedengineering(e.g.defense,space)CybersecurityDeterministicenterpriseagentsEnterpriseproductivitytoolsAIgeneratedimages/videoConsumerchatbotTimeBreadthofR&DfocusSource:Bernsteinanalysis.RobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe“Firm”inthesedisclosuresrelatetothefollowingentities:Bern(April1,2024onwards),SanfordC.2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)LC.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited(SEBIregistrationno.INH000006378),SanfordC.Bernstein(SAfricaTechnologies&ServicestoproduceBernsteinresearchunderaGlobalServicesAgreementinplacebetweenBernsteinandSociétéGénérale.Bernsteinispartofajointvenotherwise,forpurposesofthesedisclosures,referencestoBernstein’s“affiliates”relatetobothSGandABandtheirrespectiveWevalueTencentatHK$780pershare,ona20xFY+1(i.e.Quarters5-8)PEmultiple.WevalueAlibabaatUS$180/HK$176pershare,basedonourSOTPvaluationforFY+1revenuesandprofitsinitscoree-commerceandCloudbusinesses.ThemaindownsiderisksassociatedwithTencentin–forexamplerelatedtoChina'santi-monopolyregulations.ThemaindownsiderisksassociatedwithourpricetargetforAlibabainclud–forexamplerelatedtoChina'santi-monopolyregulations,andlossesintheTheBernsteinbrandratesstocksbasedonforecastsofrelativeperformanceforthenext12monthsversustheS&P500forstockslistedontheU.S.andCanadianexchanges,versustheBloombergEuropReturnIndexEUR(EDME)forstockslistedontheEuropeanexchangesandemergingmarketsexchangesoutsPacificregion,versustheBloombergJapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexchanges,andversustheBloombergAsiaex-JapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndex(ASIAX)forstocksl(ex-Japan)exchanges-unlessotherwisespecified.TheBernsteinbrandhasthreecategoriesofratings:•Market-Perform:Stockwillperforminlinewiththemarketindextowithin+/-15ppRobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026CoverageSuspended:CoverageofacompanyundertheBernsteinresearchbrandhasbeensuspended.Ratingsandpricetargetsaresuspendedtemporarily,arenolongercurrent,andshouldtNotRated:Aratingassignedwhenthestockcannotbeaccuratelyvalued,ortheperformanceofthepredicted,atthepresenttime.Thecoveringanalystmaycontinuetopublishresearchreportsonthecompanoneventsanddevelopments.NotCovered(NC)denotescompaniesthatarenotundercoverage.Bernsteinbrandstockratingsarebasedona12-monthtimehorizon.TheAutonomousbrandratescommonstocksasindicatedbelow.AsourbenchmarksweusetheBloombergEurope500BanksAndFinancialServicesIndex(BEBANKS)and(EDMFI)indexfordevelopedEuropeanbanksandPayments,theBloombergEurope500InsuranceIndex(BEINSUR)forEuropeaninsurers,theS&P500andS&PFinancialsforUSbanksandPaymentscoverage,S5LIFEforUSInsurance,theS&PInsuranceSelectIndustry(SPSIINS)forUSNon-LifeInsurerscoverSmallCapPriceReturnIndex(EMLSF)foremergiTheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofcommonstockratings:•Neutral(N):StockwillperforminlinewiththemarkeCoverageSuspended:CoverageofacompanyundertheAutonomousresearchbrandhasbeensuspended.Ratingsandpricetargetsaresuspendedtemporarily,arenolongercurrent,andshouldtherefoNotRated:Aratingassignedwhenthestockcannotbeaccuratelyvalued,ortheperformanceofthepredicted,atthepresenttime.Thecoveringanalystmaycontinuetopublishresearchreportsonthecompanoneventsanddevelopments.Thosedenotedas‘FeaNotCovered(NC)denotescompaniesthatarenotundercoverage.Autonomousbrandcommonstockratingsarebasedona12-moTheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofpreferredstockratings:•Outperform(OP):Thetotalreturnofthepreferredinstrumentioperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenex•Neutral(N):Thetotalreturnoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenex•Underperform(UP):Thetotissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.Autonomouspreferredstockratingsarebasedona6-monthtimehorWherethisreportcontainsinvestmentrecommendationsforcreditinstruments,asdefinedinarticle3(1)(35)oftheMarketAbuseRegulation,theinformationbelowispresentedtoRobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026Thereportmayalsoincluderefesecuritiesoftheissuer(s)referencedherein.Pleasenoteaninvestmentrecommendationforcreditinstrthisreportandviceversa.TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofcreditratings:•CreditOutperform(C-OP):ThetotalreturnoftheReferenceCrebondsofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmon•CreditNeutral(C-N):Thetotofbondsofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenex•CreditUnderperform(C-UP):ThetotalreturnoftheReferenceCreditInstrumentisexpectofbondsofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenexAutonomouscreditratingsarebasedona6ItisatthesolediscretionoftheFir51.1%16.5%Market-Perform(Bern36.3%17.8%SELL12.6%14.9%*ThesefiguresrepresentthepercentageofcompanieswithineachequityratingcategoryforwhichaffiliatesofBernsteinhaveprovidedinvestmentbankingserviceswithintheprevious1AsofMarch31,2026.Allfiguresareupdatedquarterly.RobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026O:HK$780.00O:HK$780.0004/16/2026O:HK$750.0009/12/2025O:HK$800.00O:HK$820.00O:HK$790.0003/18/2026O:HK$700.0008/14/2025O:HK$540.00O:HK$640.0003/05/2025O:HK$660.0005/15/2025Outperform(O);Market-Perform(M);Underperform(U);CoverageSuspended(CO:$160.00O:$160.0008/29/2025O:$165.0002/26/2025O:$145.0007/21/2025O:$167.0009/12/202502/08/202408/15/202406/26/202308/11/202301/30/2024O:$200.00O:$180.0003/20/2026O:$200.00O:$180.0003/20/2026O:$190.00Outperform(O);Market-Perform(M);Underperform(U);CoverageSuspended(CO:HK$161.0002/26/2025O:HK$141.0007/21/2025O:HK$156.0008/29/202506/26/202308/11/202301/30/202402/08/202408/15/2024O:HK$196.00O:HK$186.00O:HK$196.00O:HK$186.00O:HK$176.0003/20/2026O:HK$163.0009/12/2025AllpricetargetandBernsteinhasreceivedcompensationfornon-investmentbankingsecurities-relatedproductsorservicesintheprevioustwelveRobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026AnaffiliateofBernsteinhasreceivedcompensationfornon-investmentbankingsecurities-relatedproductsorservicesintheprevioustwelvemonthsfrBernsteinand/oraffiliateshavereceivedcompensationfornon-investmentbankingsecurities-relatedproductsorservicesintheprevioustwelvemonthsfr+44BernsteinAutonomousLLP;LondonUK+212SociétéGénéraleAfricaTechnologies&Services;Casablanca,Morocco+33BSGFranceS.A.;Paris,France+34BSGFranceS.A.;Madrid,Spain+41BernsteinAutonomousLLP;Geneva,Switzerland+49BSGFranceS.A.;Frankfurt,Germany+91SanfordC.Bernstei+852SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司;HongKong,China+65SanfordC.Bernstein(Singapore)PrivateLimited;Singapore+81SanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK;Tokyo,JapanWherethisreporthasbeenpreparedbyresearchanalyst(s)employedbyanon-USaffiliate,suchanotherwiseexpresslynotedbelow)notregisteredasassociatedpersonsofBernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLCoranyotherSEC-registeredbroker-dealerandarenotlicensedorqualifiedasresearchanalystswitbesubjecttoFINRA’srestrictionsregarding(amongotherthings)communicationsbyresearchanalystswitinteractionsbetweenresearchanalystsandinvestmentbankingpersonnel,participatmarketingactivitiesrelatingtoinvestmentbankingtransactions,publicappearancesbyresearchanalysts,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.Wherethisreporthasbeenpreparedbyresearchanalyst(s)employedbySociétéGénéraleAfricaTechnologoftheSociétéGénéralegroupofcompanies),ithasbeenpreparedonbehalfofaAgreementinplacebetweenBernsteinandSociétéGénérale.Eachresearchanalystlistedinthisreport,whoisprimarilyresponthatalloftheviewsexpressedinthispublicationaccuratelyreflectthatanalyst'spersonalviewsaboutanyandallofsecuritiesorissuersandthatnopartofthatanalyst'scompensationwas,recommendationsorviewsinthispublication.ItisatthesolediscretionoftheFirRobinZhu+85221232659robin.zhu@12June2026Separatebrandingismaintainedfor“Bernstein”and“Autonomous”•Bernsteinproducesanumberofdifferenttypesofresearchproductsincluding,amongofresearchproductmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedwithinothertypesofresearchproducts,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologiesorotherwise.Furthermore,viewsorrecommeunderonebrandmaydifferfromviewsorrecommendationsunderthesametypeofresearchproductibrand.TheResearchRatingsSystemforthetwobrandsandotherinformationrelatedtothoseRatintheprevioussection.•Autonomousoperatesasaseparatebusinessunitwithinthefollowing.ForinformationrelatingtoBernsteinbrandedproductspleasevisiAnalystsarecompensatedbasedonaggregatecontributionstotheresearchfranchiseasmeasuredbyaccountpenetration,ThisreporthasbeenproducedbyanindependentanalystasdefinedinArticle3(1)(34)(i)ofEU596/2014MarketAbuse(Withdrawal)Act2018.thispublicationintheUnitedStatesandaccepts