2026年6月全球车市洞察（含中欧美）202607市场解读

Ppwc

PwCAutofacts®

MarketUpdate

Automotiveindustryoutlook

June2026

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdate2

Tableofcontents

1Executivesummary

2Industryoverview

3Analystinsights

4Globalandregionalmarketanalyses

5Appendix:Scenariosandassumptions,glossary

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdate*EU27+UK+EFTA3

12345

Executivesummary

GlobalautomarketperformancewaslargelydraggeddownbyshrinkingICEsalesinChina,whileBEVsalescontinuetoclimbinEurope*amidhighoilpricesandincreasedproductofferings

TheEuropeanCommissionplanstoextendimporttariffsonChineseBEVstohybrids

ImportsofICEbasedpowertrainsfromChinawereup+157%YoYinMaywithChineseOEMsbypassingBEVtariffsthroughhybrids.Despitethoseduties,BEVimportswereup+40%YTD.

6%

DespitetheongoingblockageoftheStraitofHormuz,crudeoilpricesnormalised

AfterpeakingattheendofApril,crudeoilpriceshavedeclinedandreachedpre-warvalueswith$73/barrel,indicatingthatmarketshavelargelyabsorbedthesupplyrisk.

ShareofBEVsintheGermanusedcarmarketsinceMarch2026

Europe’s*BEVmarketshowscontinuousgrowthamidhighoilprices

BEVsextendedtheirgrowthstreakintoMayandfurtherjumpedby+39%YoY.ThetwolargestmarketsFranceandGermanycarriedthegrowthwith+93%and+39%YoY,respectively.

SincetheIranconflictbeganinlate

February,usedBEVsalesinGermany

haverisenfrom19,000unitspermonthtoanaverageofmorethan30,000,

likelyreflectingconsumerinterestinlowerfuelcostsandusedBEVs’

generallylowerpricesversuscomparableICEmodels.

ChineseOEMsjumpaheadofSouthKoreanandUSOEMsinEurope*

YeartodatethroughMay,ChineseOEMsreachedan11%marketshare,aheadofSouthKoreanandUSOEMsat8%and6%,respectively,bothdownsince2023.

HighvolumemainstreamOEMshavemaintainedresilientprofitabilitypost-COVID

Germanpremiumbrandsbenefitedstronglyfromconsumersavingsandafocusonhigh-marginmodels,buthaveseendeclinessince,whilemainstreamOEMsmaintainedstableprofits.

PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdate

Industryoverview

12345

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdate*EU27+UK+EFTA;**France,Germany,Italy,SpainandUK5

Automotivedashboard

GlobalsaleswerelargelydraggeddownbythecontractingChinesemarket,whileEurope*andtheUSAeithergreworremainedflatinMay2026

BEVcommoditypricesforecast

Q22026vs.Q12026

Lithium-2%

Cobalt+2%

Nickel+2%

Copper+0%

Fullyearsales2025vs.2026

Europe*

USA

2025PwCBase2026

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec

China

YTDsalesdeltato2025AbsoluteRelative

+255k

-311k

-2.13m

-24%

+5%

-5%

•GlobalsalesinMaymaintainedthesamevolumeasAprilat5.9millionunits,downby-7%YoYamidweakereconomicconditionsandrisingcosts

•Europe*alsoremainedflatoverAprilwith1.2millionunits,althoughgrowingby+4%YoYboostedbytheEurope5countries**

•WhileUSsaleswereunchangedinMayYoY,with1.5millionunits,theChinesemarketcontractedby-23%ashighoilpricesweighedonICEsales

12345

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:AutomotiveNews,BBC,FinancialTimes,Handelsblatt,Reuters6

Hottopics

Overviewoflatestdevelopingstoriesintheautomotiveindustry

1

BBC

US,CAandMXare

staringdowna1July

tradedeadlinewithouta

clearresolution

AUSMCAreviewwasscheduledforthissummerundertheoriginal

agreement,butTrump'stariffsandCanada'sresponsehave

complicatedtalks.Thepact

underpinsnearly$1.6tninannualtrade,hasintegratedkeysectors

liketheautoindustry,andsupportsmillionsofjobsacrosstheregion.

2

Handelsblatt

TheEuropeanUnion

preparestariffson

Chineseplug-inhybrids

TheEUCommissionplansto

extendanti-subsidytariffsto

Chinesehybridcars,closinga

loopholethatexcludedthemfrom

existingEVduties.Similartothe

tariffsonBEVs,thenewdutieswillbeOEMspecific,butlowerasthe

batteriesaccountforasmallershareofthetotalvehiclecost.

3

AutomotiveNews

Theautoindustryis

competingwithAIfor

memorychips—and

losing

AsAIbooms,automakerscompetewithtechgiantsforDRAMmemorychips.OEMsareforcedintopriceylong-termcontractsassuppliers

prioritisedatacentreclients,whoarewillingtopayanyprice.Theshortagestrainsanautoindustryalreadypressuredbytariffsandhighoilprices.

4

FinancialTimes

GermanOEMsembark

onhistoricjobcutsas

Chineserivalsflood

market

GermanOEMsarefacingsevererestructuringasChinese

competitorsgainground,forcingVW,BMWandMercedes-Benztocutcosts,jobsandproductioninGermany.Analystswarnthe

industrymaybeundergoinga

lastingshrinkageamidweaker

profitsandrisingglobalpressure.

5

Reuters

China'scarmakersrush

toCanadaasa‘practice

run’forUSsales

ChineseautomakerslikeBYD,

CheryandChanganarerapidly

exploringCanadaplansdespite

limitednear-termprofitstobuild

dealernetworksandposition

themselvesforeventualUSmarketaccess.Similarregulationsmakeitausefultestrun,evenasUStariffs

keepChinesecarsoutfornow.

12345

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdate*LondonMetalExchange7

BEVcommodityprices

StraitofHormuzsulphurcrisistightensbatteryandbasemetalmarketsalreadystrainedbyDRCcobaltquotas,Indonesiannickelcutsandmajorcoppermineoutages

Lithium

(LME*,inthousandUSD/metricton)2025average

30

20

10

0

JulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulOct2027Apr

Chinesepricesslidnearly10%overtwosessionsonspeculationthatCATL'sJianxiawominemayrestart.However,a2026deficitstillloomsasacceleratingenergystoragedemandandtightsupplyoutpacegrowthinEVbatterydemand.

Cobalt

(LME*,inthousandUSD/metricton)

60

50

40

30

20

JulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulOct2027Apr

TheDRC'sextensionofexportquotasinto2026iskeepingpricesfirmandavailabilitytight.NewUSandEUsupplydealsandHormuzrelatedsulphurshortagessupportpricesevenasChinaleansintocobaltfreeLFPbatteries.

Nickel

(LME*,inthousandUSD/metricton)

20

18

16

14

JulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulOct2027Apr

Copper

(LME*,inthousandUSD/metricton)

14

12

10

8

6

JulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulOct2027Apr

PriceslooksettoholdatelevatedlevelsonIndonesianquotacutsandHPMtaxchanges,withHormuzrelatedsulphurshortagesliftingrawmaterialcostsevenasweakstainlesssteelandslowprecursordemandcapfurtherupside.

PriceslooksettostayfirmonfallingLMEandSHFEstocksandmajormineoutages,withHormuztransitoptimismandstructuralAIandelectrificationdemandreinforcingthebullishoutlookevenasastrongerdollarcapsgains.

PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdate

Analystinsights

Currentimpact–Iranwar

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,S&PCapitalIQPro,Bloomberg9

ImpactofIranwaroncrudeoilandaluminiumsupply

Brentcrudehasfullyreturnedtopre-warlevelswhilealuminiumhaseasedbelowlateFebruarylevels,reducinginputcostpressureacrossautomotive

Brentcrudeoil

(inUSD/barrel)

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

201920202021

+0%

Daily

March2026

01Apr01May01Jun

Monthly

2019–Feb2026

20222023202420252026

Aluminium

(inthousandUSD/metricton)

-1%

Daily

March2026

2019202020212022202320242025202601Apr01May01Jun

Monthly

2019–Feb2026

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

Keyinsights

•Brentcrudenowsitsroughlyflatversuspre-warlevels,around0%sincethestartofthe

conflictevenastheconflictcontinues,

suggestingmarketshavelargelyabsorbedthesupplyrisk

•Dayendpricespeakednear$118perbarrelon31March2026,withasecondpeakfollowingon29April2026,withpricesdownaround

38%sincethen

•Oilsupplychainsremainimpactedevenastheheadlinepricenormalises

•Aluminiumhasdeclinedtoaround-1%

belowthestartoftheconflictsuggesting

supplyconcernshavemoderatedwiththe

downwardtrendmirroringthemoveincrude

Currentimpact–Iranwar

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,FinancialTimes,Drewry10

Containershippingcosts

Containerratesrose21%inJunetoa22-monthhighandarenowup116%sincethewarbegan,ledbyChinatoUSlanesontarifffrontloading

ContainershippingrateKeyinsights

(inUSD/40ftcontainer)

•Globalcontainerfreightratesrose21%inJunetoa22-monthhigh,thestrongestlevelsince

the2024RedSeacrisis

•Ratesarenowup116%sincethestartoftheconflict,extendingtherenewedupswingthatfollowedAprilstabilisation

•Allmajortradelanesareaffected,withChinatoUSroutesseeingthelargestincreasesandChinatoEuropelanesrisingslightlyless

•FrontloadingaheadofnewUStariffshas

pulledforwardpeakseasondemand,keepingvesselsfullatleastintoJuly

•ChinatoUSEastCoastratesclimbedto

roughly$7,880perFEU,upabout62%monthovermonth,whileChinatoMediterranean

rosearound47%

RedSeacrisisUS-IsraelattackonIran

+116%

Frontloadingaheadof

potentialUStariffs

Shippingratessurgedamid

intensifyingrisksinthe

StraitofHormuz

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25

Monthly2023–Feb2026

01/0401/0501/06WeeklyMarch2026

0

Jan-23

Jan-26

Jul-23

Jul-25

*Allpowertraintypesexcl.BEVsJune26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,GeneralAdmissionofCustomsChina,ACEA11

12345

EUvehicleimportsfromChina

ImportsacrossBEVandnon-BEVpowertrainscontinuetogrowdespitepunitivetariffsandarefaroutperformingoverallsalesintheEuropeanUnion

ImportedvehiclesfromChinatotheEUKeyinsights

(inthousand,accumulated)

•Despitepunitivetariffsofupto35.3%imposedsinceOctober2024,import

volumessurgedin2025yeartodate

•InMay,BEVimportsfellforthefirst

timein6months(-21%YoY),whileotherpowertraintypesmorethandoubled

(+157%YoY),surpassingthe100,000-unitmarkforthefirsttime

•Despitethismonth'sdecline,increased

importsinpreviousmonthspulledthe

YTDperformanceto+40%YoYforBEVsto249,000units

•Otherpowertrainsjumped+106%YoYto361,000unitsinMayYTD

•InresponsetothesignificantshiftfromBEVtohybridimportsfromChina,theEUisnow

planningtoexpandEVtariffstohybrids

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2026BEV2025BEV2024BEV2026Other*2025Other*2024Other*

12345

*EU27+UK+EFTA;**Countrieswithlessthan12,000BEVssoldinMay2026YTDcombinedJune26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,ACEA12

E

(

European*BEVpenetration

Europe’sBEVmarketshareroseto21%YTDinMaywithFinlandandDenmarkleadinggainswhiletheNetherlandsremainedastheonlymarketindecline

BEVshare

p

e

250,000

Denmark

Finland

France

-2pp0pp+2pp+4pp+6pp+8pp+10pp+12pp+14pp+16pp+18p

BEVshareYoYpercentagepointchang

urope*BEVsalesdevelopment

May2026YTD)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

SwedenGermany

Ireland

BelgiumSwitzerlandAustria

Smallmarkets

Netherlands

UnitedKingdom

Portugal

Europe*

Poland

Spain

Norway

Italy

Keyinsights

•InMayYTD,Europe's*BEVmarketshareimprovedslightlyto21%,gaining+4ppYoYandreaching1.3millionunitssofarthisyear

•Germany,currentlythelargestBEVmarket,alsoincreaseditsshareYoYby+6ppto24%,reinforcingitsupwardtrajectory

•Denmarkremainedamongthestrongest

performerswitha+16ppYoYgainto80%

marketshareandcouldregainitsmomentumfromearlierthisyear

•TheNetherlandsnarroweditslossesto

-1ppYoY,animprovementoverprevious

declines.EstoniaandLatviaaretheonlyothermarketswhereBEVshavelostmarketshare,

andtogethertheyaccountforjust0.3%oftotalsales

12345

GeelyGroupandLeapmotorareonlyincludedsince2026June26

PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,ACEA,CAAM13

Salesperformancebybrandorigin

ChineseOEMscontinuedtogrowinEuropeandareonlyonepercentagepointawayfromovertakingJapaneseOEMs,whileconsolidationintheChinesemarketcontinues

MarketshareinEurope*bybrandoriginMarketshareinChinabybrandorigin

(in%ofEuropean*passengercarsales)(in%ofChinesepassengercarsales)

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2019202020212022202320242025

71%

10%

9%

7%

May2026

YTD

Europeexcl.GermanOEMs

202020212022202320242025

33%

30%

12%

11%

8%

6%

May2026YTD

40%

35%

30%

15%

10%

5%

0%

2019

**

*EU27+UK+EFTA;**Incl.BYD,CheryGroup,GeelyGroup(incl.Lotus,SmartandVolvo),LeapmotorandSAICGroup;CheryGroup,

12345

*EU27+UK+EFTA;**Ranked,morethan25,000BEVsor7,000PHEVssoldinMay2026YTDJune26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,ACEA,CAAM,ANL14

LeadingcountriesinEVpenetration

BEVandPHEVsharesheldbroadlystableacrossleadingmarkets,whiletheUSABEVdeclinedeepenedto-29%YoY;inChina,BEVscontinuedtooutperformaweakeroverallmarket

BEVmarketshareofleadingEuropean*countries**

Netherlands

Sweden

Ireland

Portugal

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Germany

Europe*

China

USA

(May2026YTD,YoYchangeBEV(restofmarket))

Norway

Denmark

Sweden

Belgium

Netherlands

France

Portugal

Germany

Europe*

China

USA

33%

5%

98%-0%(-78%)

80%+41%(-38%)

41%+18%(-11%)

36%+3%(-7%)

34%-10%(-7%)

28%+55%(-13%)

25%+33%(+4%)

24%+31%(-4%)

21%+29%(-1%)

-10%(-25%)

-29%(-3%)

PHEVmarketshareofleadingEuropean*countries**

(May2026YTD,YoYchangePHEV(restofmarket))

25%

24%

15%

14%

+42%(+5%)

+20%(-2%)

+47%(+2%)

+16%(+2%)

+25%(+3%)

-28%(-19%)

1%-46%(-4%)

+20%(-15%)

-7%(+1%)

+3%(+5%)

+24%(+8%)

13%

12%

12%

11%

10%

15%

12345

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,KBA15

VehicleownershipshareinGermany

OEMsshowvaryingownershipchannelmixes,withnewcomerspostingthesharpestshiftsasBYDandTeslascalerapidlyfromlowbaseslastyear

Vehicleownershipbybrand

(in%oftherespectivesales,totalinthousand,YoYchangein%,May2025YTD)

+150%

Volumebrands

-23%

57.3

0%

9%

16%+43%

26%

33%

-48%

18%

-20%

13%

25%

81%

42%

+20%

+27%

+341%

15%-34%

+8%

Premiumbrands

+4%

100.6

0%

35%

-5%

Newcomers

+200%

21.1

0%

+330%

20.0

+4%

222.7

0%

-2%

1,188.0

0%

29%

-12%

13%-12%

-1%

102.2

0%

32%

-14%

12%

20%

+10%

-3%

87.3

0%

36%

-16%

-18%

26.1

0%

23%

-22%

15%

+30%

12.2

0%

13%

0%

+128%

+255%

3%-15%

31%

+345%

28%

+170%

-8%

16%+9%

25%

+6%

34%

+63%

+4%

-33%

13%

25%

-2%

+18%

28%

-36%

+5%

28%

35%

+36%

15%

36%

+6%

34%

-13%

34%

+1%

32%

+1305%

27%

+15%

28%

-12%

23%

+3%

GermanytotalAudiBMWMercedes-BenzVWOpelToyotaMGTeslaBYD

PrivateDealer/OEMself-registrationRental/carsharingCommercialOther

12345

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,KBA16

UsedcarregistrationsinGermany

TheshareofusedBEVregistrationshasdoubledto6%sinceMarch2026,asregistrationsrosebyroughly89%YoY,withmomentumpotentiallylinkedtorecentenergymarketvolatility

Keyinsights

•UsedBEVregistrationsroseto34,000inMarch2026,up+89%versusMarch2025,

withPHEVregistrationsreaching18,000,up+24%overthesameperiod

•BEVshareoftotalusedcarregistrations

doubledto6%byMarch2026,comparedto3%throughoutmostof2025,whilePHEV

shareheldsteadyat3%

•TheaccelerationfromMarchonwardmaypartlyreflectconsumerresponsetoenergymarketvolatilityfollowing

disruptionsinglobaloilsupply

•TheimpactonnewBEVregistrationswillgenerallytakelongertomaterialize,as

vehiclesmustfirstbeorderedandbuilt

•EasingenergypricesinJuneandbeyondcouldmoderatethismomentum,whetherusedEVvaluesandnewEVsalesfollowthesame

trendremainstobeseen

+26%+25%+20%

37.2+14%36.936.2

33.6

3%3%3%

3%

4%4%4%4%

Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25

3%

6%6%

6%

4%

Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26

Usedcarregistrations

(totalinthousand,BEV/PHEVsharein%oftotalregistrations,YoYin%)BEVPHEV

+60%+63%

52.152.1

+44%

45.6

3%3%

+34%

35.4

3%

4%

+15%

34.6

3%

4%

+18%

34.6

3%

4%

+38%

32.6

3%

3%

+27%

32.0

3%

3%

+33%

31.8

3%

3%

+26%

31.6

3%

3%

+56%

30.1

2%

3%

+35%

29.5

3%

3%

Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25

Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26

IranWar

+26%

37.2

3%

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,OEMsannouncements17

Write-downsofthelargestOEMgroups

ThelargestOEMgroupsplannedinvestmentsofover€600billioninelectrificationanddigital

transformation,whileweakEVdemandandunclearregulationshavesincedampenedtheoutlook

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2020

Majorautomakerscollectivelywroteoff$60-70billionoffailedEVinvestmentsin2025to2026

Top10OEMgroups

ToyotaGroupVWGroup

HyundaiGroup

€64B

€5Bin

writeoffs

€18

0B

€78

B

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi

€23

B

€7Binwr

iteoffs

€22B

inwriteoffs

€14Binwrite

offs

Stellantis

GeneralMotors

€5

0B

€3

2B

Honda

Ford

Suzuki

Mercedes-Benz

€34B

€17Bi

nwriteoffs

€46B

€3

3B

€62B

12345

June26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,OEMannualreports,S&PCapitalIQPro,S&PGlobalMobilityLVSalesApril2026release18

ProfitabilityofthelargestOEMsgroups

Premiumbrandsachievethehighestprofitpercarsold,followedbylargemainstreamOEMswithstrongeconomiesofscale

O

4,996

4,550

5,700

3,637

4,281

2,747

2,928

2,542

2,731

1,997

2,119

1,842

1,993

1,729

2,590

1,658

2,506

1,236

1,218

1,196

1,621

1,021

908

910

1,199

604

611

546

489

525

1,027

79

76

41

305

-9

1,260

-137

1,195

-1,269

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

-1,000

-2,000

peratingprofitpersoldcar

(fiscalyear,inUSD)

Avg.EBITpercar2015-2019Avg.EBITpercar2020-2023EBITpercar2024EBITpercar2025

BMWMercedes-TeslaToyotaHyundai-

BenzKia

SAICCheryGreatWall

MazdaChanganNissan

HondaSuzuki

GMRenault

Stellantis

Geely

Ford

BYD

VW

12345

*2024employeenumbersJune26PwCAutofacts®|MarketUpdateSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,OEMreports,S&PCapitalIQPro19

EmployeeefficiencyoflargestOEMgroups

ToyotageneratedthehighestEBITperemployeeamongthe20largestOEMgroups,aheadofHyundai-Kia,BMWandGM

EBIT(inbillionUSD)

ChinaEuropeJapan/SouthKoreaUSA

BYD

650700750800850900

Employees(inthousand)

VW

500550600

Hyundai-Kia*BMWGM

Mercedes-BenzHonda

Tesla

RenaultNissan

SAIC

Employeeefficiencyoftop20OEMgroups

(FY2025)

Toyota

400

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

0

Ford

Stellantis

ChanganGreatWall

Geely

50100150200250300

Suzuki

CheryMazda

450

350

12345

IncentiveschemesinEurope*

Overviewoflatestannouncementsonelectrifiedvehiclesubsidies

CountryTaxbenefitsPurchaseincentives

France

Acquisition:Exemptionfromthemass-basedmalusforBEVs,FCEVsandPHEVs(rangeof>50km);Companycars:BEVsandFCEVsexemptedfromtaxesontheallocationofvehiclesforeconomicpurposes.

2026:“Coupdepouce”schemeforBEVsrangesfrom€3,500to€5,700,dependingonincomeandonlyforvehicles<€47,000and<2.4tonnes;companiesreceivenopurchaseincentives.VehicleswithEuropean-madebatterycellscanreceiveanextra€1,200to

€2,000incentive.Applicationsfor“socialleasing”programmewillopen16July2026,offering50,000low-incomehouseholdstoleasenewEVsforaslittleas€194permonth.

Ownership:BEVsregisteredfrom1January2026willnolongerbetax-exemptandwillbetaxedat50%ofthestandardweight-basedrate;Companycars:ReductionoftaxableamountforBEVsandPHEVsfrom1%to0.5%,additionalreductionto0.25%forBEVsupto€100,000,75%write-offinthefirstyear,totalwrite-offin6years;From2025:40%costwrite-off,applyingtocompanyBEVpurchasesfromJuly2024toDecember2028.

2026:NewlyregisteredBEVsandcertainPHEVs/REEVswillagainbesubsidized

nationwidewithupto€6,000forBEVsand€4,500forPHEVs/REEVs.Theexact

amountdependsonhousehold