中观行业比较月报：“K”型分化加剧中报季关注景气兑现

正文目录一、 回顾：6月市场型定价加深，科技板块延续强势 3二、 景气跟踪：“K”型分化加剧，AI高景气外溢消费地产景气承压 4上游周期：原油、化工品、有色价格回落，煤价上涨，钢铁建材延续走弱 4中游制造：关注AI设备、电池、船舶、等细分方向的景气空间 6TMT：AI算力硬件维持高景气，半导体、光模块产品量价齐升 7下游消费：消费行业景气度进一步回落 7公用交运&地产金融：全社会用电和发电量持续增长，房地产价格指标延续磨底 8三、 估值比较：“K”型分化加剧，关注估值处于中枢的周期制造行业 9估值变动：“K”型分化加剧，仅电子/通信/建材/机械/公用事业的估值扩张明显 9估值水位：TMT行业估值普遍较高，关注部分估值回到历史中枢的周期/制造行业 9四、 展望：“K”型分化加剧，中报季关注业绩兑现 五、 风险提示 12一、回顾：6月市场“K”型定价加深，科技板块延续强势6A6月6月全月，上证指数微涨，科创上涨26.1%，创业板指上涨7.5%。申万316AI用事业、商贸零售、石油石化行业表现居于末位，跌幅在12%-16%之间。图表A股主要指数走势 上证指数 创业板指 科创50 中证2000 沪深300 中证红利0%26/06/0126/06/0226/06/0326/06/0426/06/0526/06/0826/06/0926/06/1026/06/1126/06/1226/06/1526/06/1626/06/1726/06/1826/06/2226/06/2326/06/2426/06/2526/06/2626/06/2926/06/3026/06/0126/06/0226/06/0326/06/0426/06/0526/06/0826/06/0926/06/1026/06/1126/06/1226/06/1526/06/1626/06/1726/06/1826/06/2226/06/2326/06/2426/06/2526/06/2626/06/2926/06/30图表申万一级行涨跌幅50-515.411.315.411.36.64.91.8-0.3----.--6

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石零事化售业二、”型分化加剧，I高景气外溢/消费地产景气承压上游周期：原油、化工品、有色价格回落，煤价上涨，钢铁建材延续走弱6①石油70美元/6至73.0美元②64007.5/12%。供给有约束、且需求端受益于半导体、军工等产品支撑的情况下，稀土价格表现韧性，全月上涨7.0%。③6图表上游周期：6月色金品种价普遍回调大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来两年分位水近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02伦敦金现（美元/盎司）-11.7% 伦敦金现（美元/盎司）-11.7% 21.4% 65.6%4007.54538.24621.34669.1987.5伦敦银现（美元/盎司）-22.3% 62.1% 72.5%58.575.373.775.193.8 2026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02铜:期货价（万元/吨）-2.2%28.5%3.8%89.5%10.210.510.19.610.3铝:期货价（万元/吨）工业金属氧化铝:期货价（元/吨）-7.2%-3.4%9.9%-6.6%-0.7%0.9%75.1%17.4%2.32790.02.42888.02.42863.02.52874.02.42757.0大宗锡:期货价（万元/吨）-8.7%45.2%19.3%86.3%38.942.6大宗锡:期货价（万元/吨）-8.7%45.2%19.3%86.3%38.942.638.336.943.1碳酸锂:期货价（万元/吨） -12.7%151.0% 30.4% 85.1% 15.7 18.0 18.6 16.3 17.4能源金属工业硅:期货价（万元/吨） -2.3% 3.3% -5.1% 15.1% 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8镍:期货价（万元/吨） -12.3% 4.5% -5.2% 51.6% 12.6 14.4 14.9 13.6 13.9钴:期货价（美元/吨） 0.0% 68.9% 5.5% 75.9% 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6小金属稀土价格指数7.0% 45.7% 88.0%265.2247.9273.7小金属稀土价格指数7.0% 45.7% 88.0%265.2247.9273.7257.3305.9锑:现货价（万元/吨）-22.8% -38.2% 0.0%11.514.916.016.817.0图表上游周期：6月价、工品价持续回，煤表现韧性大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02石油石化煤炭

布伦特原油:期货价（美元/桶） -19.9% 9.3% 19.9% 56.2% 73.0 91.1 110.4 104.0 72.9NYMEXRBOB汽油:期货价（美分/加仑） -4.6% 39.7% 68.8% 86.0% 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.2 2.3NYMEX天然气:期货价（美元/百万英热） -5.7% 35.1% 41.5% 69.5% 104.5 110.8 112.9 128.1 78.62026-06-292026-052026-042026-032026-02焦炭:期货价（元/吨） 9.2% 41.7% 25.6% 88.6% 1898.0 1737.5 1696.5 1725.5 1310.5焦煤:库提价:山西产（元/吨） 20.2% 78.9% 26.4% 98.2% 2200.0 1830.0 1710.0 1750.0 1660.02026-06-262026-052026-042026-032026-02库存量:炼焦煤:国内样本钢厂 1.0% 0.4% -1.2% 68.4% 792.6 784.4 781.7 788.1 987.5库存量:炼焦煤:国内独立焦化厂 -10.4% 23.6% -1.2% 72.9% 885.6 988.5 928.2 887.7 796.22026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02中国化工产品价格指数 -8.2% 9.0% 14.8% 79.1% 4512.0 4916.0 5317.0 5386.0 4060.0聚乙烯:现货价 -15.2% 5.0% 18.6% 44.6% 8400.0 9900.0 10600.0 10600.0 7850.0丙烯:山东地区市场价 -16.1% 15.5% 33.8% 83.4% 7645.0 9110.0 9630.0 8750.0 6525.0丁二烯:现货价 -24.6% -3.3% 6.6% 14.3% 8900.0 11800.0 13300.0 17900.0 10400.0纯苯:现货价 -11.7% 13.3% 27.7% 47.4% 6730.0 7620.0 8750.0 8740.0 6180.0石油化工对二甲苯:现货价 -10.8% 10.5% 8.9% 78.0% 7678.0 8604.0 9824.0 9977.0 7201.0乙二醇:现货价 -6.6% -2.5% 14.9% 24.5% 4230.0 4530.0 5190.0 5310.0 3640.0环氧丙烷:现货价 -20.8% 0.0% -2.9% 18.0% 7730.0 9760.0 10340.0 12930.0 7920.0丙烯酸:现货价 -14.1% -3.6% 20.7% 50.7% 6700.0 7800.0 9400.0 11600.0 5750.0丙烯酸丁酯:现货价 -18.7% -15.2% 6.1% 11.3% 6950.0 8550.0 9400.0 12450.0 7550.0甲醇(港口):现货价 -9.1% 0.0% 27.1% 82.3% 2810.0 3090.0 3300.0 3360.0 2260.0醋酸:现货价 4.7% 17.6% 13.4% 84.1% 2880.0 2750.0 3020.0 4250.0 2480.0大宗正丁醇:现货价-13.0%-9.1%1.7%大宗正丁醇:现货价-13.0%-9.1%1.7%15.8%6000.06900.07600.08650.06150.0周期丙烯腈:现货价-1.4%27.4%39.3%77.6%10450.010600.010900.011800.07350.0橡胶天然橡胶(标准胶1#):现货价丁苯橡胶(1502):现货价-5.1%-19.0%21.0%0.8%9.2%3.9%67.7%22.3%16700.011900.017600.014700.017200.015900.016300.017900.016700.012900.0沥青:华东地区市场价1.3%28.0%56.6%92.3%4840.04780.04600.04710.03290.0丙酮:现货价-29.4%-2.9%23.2%33.7%5050.07150.07800.07900.04650.0基础化工苯酚:现货价4.8%14.9%32.8%58.5%7700.07350.08350.09450.06550.0塑料聚氯乙烯:现货价-9.1%-9.3%-3.1%1.1%4400.04840.05150.05560.04770.0低密度聚乙烯:现货价-12.3%-5.2%10.3%18.7%9100.010380.011600.011500.08750.0甲醛:现货价-2.2%23.9%29.8%83.4%1350.01380.01390.01460.01020.0环氧氯丙烷:现货价-4.7%9.2%-9.2%57.3%10650.011180.013090.013280.012190.0氟化工氢氟酸:华南地区市场价-4.7%38.2%21.6%87.2%14100.014800.014800.013500.012000.0二氯甲烷:华南地区市场价-10.6%-4.8%7.3%22.5%2950.03300.03350.03600.02750.0尿素(46%):现货价-1.1%0.5%6.4%59.5%1840.01860.01895.01880.01800.0液氨:现货价-2.2%-3.1%-4.5%19.2%2210.02260.02640.02520.02100.0硫磺(固态):现货价23.3%294.4%129.3%95.2%9150.07420.06520.06100.04140.0农化制品磷酸二铵:现货价 12.4% 24.8% 13.4% 96.6% 5000.0 4450.0 4450.0 4450.0 4360.0钾肥:现货价 -0.8% -4.9% -1.2% 43.8% 3220.0 3245.0 3255.0 3240.0 3295.0含硫复合肥:价格指数 0.0% 19.3% 10.7% 88.2% 3484.0 3484.0 3484.0 3401.0 3228.0含氯复合肥:价格指数 0.5% 15.6% 12.0% 97.7% 2907.0 2892.0 2872.0 2807.0 2626.0对二甲苯(PX):现货价 -10.8% 10.5% 8.9% 78.0% 7678.0 8604.0 9824.0 9977.0 7201.0精对苯二甲酸(PTA):现货价 -7.8% 14.1% 13.2% 80.4% 5760.0 6250.0 6920.0 6680.0 5290.0化学纤维聚酰胺6切片(常规纺):现货价 -4.3% 10.0% 12.2% 47.9% 11000.0 11500.0 12700.0 13500.0 10500.0聚对苯二甲酸乙二酯切片:现货价 -15.9% 17.0% 17.6% 80.5% 7150.0 8500.0 9370.0 8650.0 6380.0涤纶长丝:江浙地区市场价 -3.3% 20.7% 25.9% 80.4% 8750.0 9050.0 9400.0 9800.0 7600.0腈纶短纤:现货价 0.0% 16.7% 20.1% 84.3% 16100.0 16100.0 16100.0 15300.0 13200.0图表上游周期：6月铁、材品种格多数调大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来两年分位水近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02铁矿石:期货价（元/铁矿石:期货价（元/吨）-4.7%3.8%-5.6%20.4%745.5782.5793.5811.0748.0螺纹钢:期货价（元/吨）-2.3%2.5%-1.4%17.8%3084.03157.03204.03130.03059.0不锈钢:期货价（元/吨）-2.0%15.3%11.5%89.0%14610.014905.015480.014225.014115.0钢铁线材:期货价（元/吨）0.2%1.2%-1.8%48.1%3368.03361.03211.03280.03336.0热轧卷板:期货价（元/吨）-2.0%5.6%1.1%44.5%3311.03378.03413.03301.03208.02026-06-262026-052026-042026-032026-02库存量:国内主要钢材（万吨）1.5%26.3%34.6%71.3%1145.11129.61214.51361.21296.1开工率:螺纹钢:主要钢厂-1.6%-5.2%6.9%53.8%41.341.640.039.432.12026-06-202026-052026-042026-032026-02水泥:市场价（元/吨）1.2%-12.6%-7.5%4.3%260.2257.5263.6275.4275.5建筑材料浮法玻璃:市场价（元/吨）-3.1%-8.1%-1.5%0.0%1115.21140.11154.51197.11155.9纯碱:现货价（元/吨）-5.3%-9.8%-5.7%1.2%1155.01200.01230.01230.01200.0混凝土:价格指数-1.3%-10.4%-1.9%0.1%88.689.489.990.089.8中游制造：关注设备、电池、船舶、等细分方向的景气空间①机械设备：关注械、挖掘机械5②新能源：产业链价格普遍调整，关注后续电池行业景气情况。价格层面，6月光伏、电池产业链价格普遍有所调整。量的方面，5③5④6图表中游制造：口继续撑量景气度大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来两年分位水近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-06-262026-052026-042026-032026-02

价格指数:机械设备 0.4% -0.2% 0.3% 51.3% 102.9 103.0 102.3 101.6 101.22026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01出口金额:通用机械设备（万美元） 2.4% 2.3% / 73.9% 606774.4592616.0499805.6616160.6 667401.4挖掘机械:国内销量（台） -31.3% 38.6% / 78.3% 11628.0 16920.0 24101.0 6755.0 8723.0挖掘机械:出口销量（台） 11.3% 34.2% / 95.7% 13166.0 11825.0 13301.0 10471.0 9985.0重卡:销量 -6.4% 23.3% /

..0.0.0 .0工业机器人:产量 8.5% 46.5% / 100.0% 101150.093246.0 91954.0 0.0 0.02026-06-242026-052026-042026-032026-02光伏级多晶硅:现货价 -6.7% 2.8% -33.2% 7.7% 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.8多晶硅片(156mm×156mm):现货价 -5.6% 0.0% -32.7% 1.0% 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08晶硅光伏组件:现货价 -4.7% 24.2% 6.5% 74.0% 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08太阳能电池:现货价 -17.1% 25.9% -19.0% 73.5% 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05光伏 2026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01光伏出口金额（亿美元） -28.6% -7.3% / 22.3 31.2 45.3 20.5 20.3 2026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01国内光伏新增装机容量（万千瓦）-8.8%-90.7%国内光伏新增装机容量（万千瓦）-8.8%-90.7%/4.3%867.8951.9891.1//国内风电新增装机容量（万千瓦）-31.0%-85.6%-90.0%21.7%379.1549.4472.8//2026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02山东市场:市场价:碳酸二甲酯2.2%-2.8%-5.7%33.4%3525.03450.03650.04115.03465.0六氟磷酸锂:价格-12.5%103.1%-41.7%66.3%105000.0120000.098500.0106500.0122000.0华南:现货平均价:电解镍(Ni9996)-12.6%2.7%-10.9%35.9%126800.0145000.0151600.0139400.0146600.0平均价:电解锰(1#):有色市场0.9%30.1%-3.6%79.1%19210.019040.019590.019420.018920.0碳酸锂(99.5%电,国产):市场价-11.9%155.2%32.0%79.9%156540.0177650.0177150.0162960.0171920.0电解液(锰酸锂):市场价4.6%90.4%1.1%78.6%22750.021750.022250.023250.024750.0电池氢氧化锂(56.5%,国产):市场价-12.1%148.8%30.3%77.9%143780.0163550.0164620.0150420.0162560.0三元材料(523):市场价-6.1%76.3%10.1%76.4%186.1198.2200.9193.7193.8钴粉(-200目,国产):市场价-8.2%83.3%-5.7%62.6%495.0539.5553.0567.5575.0四氧化三钴(≥72%,国产):市场价-4.3%62.5%-11.3%60.4%334.0349.0362.5379.0379.0华南:现货平均价:电解钴(Co99.98)-10.2%52.4%-16.9%61.1%378000.0421000.0420000.0423000.0436000.0 2026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01中游制造动力电池:装车量（兆瓦时）15.2%25.9%/78.3%71900.062400.056500.026300.042000.0锂离子蓄电池:出口金额（亿美元）0.7%37.1%/95.7%80.379.897.567.674.42026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01国防军工 新造船价格指数0.4%1.8%1.9%91.3%1131.01126.01120.01116.01112.0出口金额:船舶（亿美元）12.6%31.0%/81.8%54.848.743.240.665.32026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01乘用车:销量（万辆）5.8%-4.2%/39.1%225.3212.9241.2153.6198.8乘用车乘用车:出口数量（万辆）6.5%45.0%/100.0%85.780.565.262.768.0新能源汽车:销量（万辆）11.3%14.4%/73.9%149.6134.4125.276.594.5新能源汽车:出口数量（万辆）3.7%110.4%/100.0%44.643.037.128.230.2汽车 商用车商用车:销量（万辆）-5.1%12.5%/78.3%37.639.748.726.935.9商用车:出口数量（万辆）-2.3%26.0%/91.3%13.013.312.810.911.6汽车用发动机:销售数量（万台）-9.1%-9.5%/13.0%166.3182.9230.3122.0179.9汽车零部件车用发动机:出口数量（万台）-5.1%-57.0%/56.5%37.039.030.033.041.0汽车零配件:出口金额（万美元）1.5%5.0%/91.3%872394.7859906.5735013.8780103.0906506.0摩托车摩托车:出口数量（万辆）12.9%23.6%/100.0%498.0441.0306.0380.0428.0TMT：AI算力硬件维持高景气，半导体、光模块产品量价齐升近一个月，TMT板块整体仍维持较高景气，AI算力硬件领域量价指标齐升。具体来看：①电子别增长93.9%月525.9%、计算机5/图表TMT：AI算力硬件续高气，半体、模块量齐升大类一级行业二级行业 指标环比上月同比上年年初以来两年分位水 近两趋势 最新值、2026-06-302026-05近五个月月底值2026-042026-032026-02DXI指数19.8% 944.2% 84.5%99.9%859875.6718032.8673722.1670042.9621443.3DRAM:DDR3:现货平均价（美元）11.8% 670.5% 60.8%99.7%46.8 39.037.439.5半导体电子

2026-06-202026-052026-042026-032026-02NANDFlash:现货平均价（美元） 31.0% 411.9%308.7% 98.2% 29.1 24.3 19.6 15.0 9.4Wafer(512GbTLC):现货平均价（美元） -1.3% 658.7% 56.5% 81.5% 20.4 20.6 20.6 22.2 17.9 2026-04-302026-032026-022026-012025-12全球销售额:半导体:当月值（十亿美元） 11.0% 93.9% / 95.7% 110.5 99.5 89.2 82.5 79.6中国销售额:半导体:当月值（十亿美元） 8.0% 78.6% / 95.7% 28.9 26.7 23.7 22.8 21.62026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01销售均价:智能设备（元/件） 18.7% 41.7% / 100.0% 655.3 552.3 498.2 379.6 379.7TMT消费电子中国:智能手机TMT消费电子中国:智能手机:出货量（万部）7.1%19.0%/78.3%2680.42503.62008.71625.82069.6中国:上市新机型数量:智能手机（款）-70.0%-44.4%/13.0%15.050.015.018.032.02026-04-302026-032026-022026-012025-12出口金额:光模块（亿美元）10.6%50.7%/100.0%6.86.25.04.25.0通信出口数量:光模块（千克）7.9%19.7%/95.7%387115.0358697.0299335.0284483.0344848.0出口平均单价:光模块（美元/千克）2.5%25.9%/100.0%1758.81715.81673.71476.41447.42026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01销售量:品牌台机/一体机/服务器（万件）45.4%-58.0%/69.6%34.723.842.717.227.0销售均价:品牌台机/一体机/服务器（元/件）-31.0%105.2%/21.7%2816.94082.42724.43729.63201.32026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02传媒 国产游戏版号发放数量（个）5.8%10.9%13.2%89.7%163.0154.0147.0130.0146.0进口游戏版号发放数量（个）100.0%-27.3%166.7%56.5%8.04.07.03.05.0计算机 游戏螺，易雷火U 下游消费：消费行业景气度进一步回落5.，为3①6②5行业整体景气度环比难言改善。③热；6月BD大类图表下游消费：业景气进一回落大类一级行业二级行业 指标环比上月同比上年年初以来两年分位水 近两趋势近五个月月底值2026-06-292026-052026-042026-032026-02市场价:生猪(外三元)（元）0.1%-33.6%-22.0%7.0%9.69.69.89.711.4农林牧渔平均批发价:猪肉（元）-3.9%-29.4%-18.8%0.0%14.314.9.217.5平均批发价:白条鸡（元）3.3%1.0%-2.0%42.4%17.416.917.317.217.12026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02四川:白酒批发价格总指数-0.3%-2.7%-1.8%1.4%106.2106.47106.8107.14107.17食品饮料纺织服饰家用电器下游消费轻工制造

2026-06-182026-052026-042026-032026-02平均价:生鲜乳（元/公斤） 0.0% -0.3% 0.0% 18.2% 3.03 3.03 3.02 3.02 3.032026-06-292026-052026-042026-032026-02到厂价:纱线（元/吨） -0.3% 10.4% 7.8% 92.5% 21530.0 21590.0 21400.0 20570.0 20320.0生丝:价格（元/吨） -4.0% -9.0% -6.8% 0.1% 426600.0444600.0447300.0450300.0 459900.0千足金饰品:价格（元/克） -9.4% 26.5% -8.6% 68.0% 1218.0 1345.0 1390.0 1375.0 1588.02026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01商品零售额:家电和音像器材类（亿元） 25.7% -16.4% / 47.6% 975.0 775.7 938.0 1571.8 0.0出口金额:家用电器（亿美元） -3.1% 9.4% / 82.6% 89.8 92.7 75.9 78.0 91.42026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01限上商品零售额:家具类（亿元） 12.2% -11.6% / 28.6% 150.3 133.9 149.3 275.5 0.0出口金额:家具及其零件（亿美元） 3.2% 1.9% / 69.6% 57.4 55.7 39.6 52.5 71.9限上商品零售额:文化办公用品类（亿元） 17.6% -2.2% / 23.8% 390.2 331.9 470.3 693.7 0.0出口金额:文化产品（亿美元） 5.3% -6.1% / 30.4% 106.0 100.7 75.8 81.2 113.5 2026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02出厂平均价:瓦楞纸:玖龙纸业（元/吨）2.7%18.9%5.2%93.7%3830.03730.03530.03580.03390.02026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01社零总额:餐饮收入（亿元）8.1%0.6%/52.4%4605.14259.84359.410264.00.0社会服务浦东国际机场:旅客吞吐量（万人次）-1.1%-1.0%/52.2%700.5708.4743.3725.271.9电影票房收入（亿元）169.1%60.6%/56.5%27.910.421.277.90.02026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01免税销售额（亿元）-11.7%0.1%/34.8%19.622.236.260.645.3社会零售规上快递业务量（亿件）8.7%5.7%/95.7%183.0168.4172.4121.171.9规上快递业务单价（元/件）-1.9%3.6%/34.8%7.57.77.68.20.02026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02中国BD交易数量（笔）54.3%80.0%/96.6%54.035.036.037.033.0医药生物中国BD交易总金额（亿美元）-48.2%-31.1%/72.4%140.5271.149.366.6207.3中国BD交易单笔金额（亿美元）-66.4%-61.7%/44.8%2.67.71.41.86.3 医药魔 公用交运&地产金融：全社会用电和发电量持续增长，房地产价格指标延续磨底①公用交运：55480%地产建筑：3013.7%，同比下滑6月建筑业PMI不足。③金融业：6月A月A2026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01最新值、近五个月月底值环比上月同比上年年初以来两年分位水 近两年趋势指标大类一级行业二级行业图表公用建筑地2026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01最新值、近五个月月底值环比上月同比上年年初以来两年分位水 近两年趋势指标大类一级行业二级行业全社会用电量（亿千瓦时） 5.7% 7.1% / 68.2% 8671.0 8205.2 8594.8 8595.0 /公用事业 2026-05-312026-042026-032026-02公用事业 2026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01发电量（亿千瓦时）5.4%6.3%/50.0%7842.57439.88024.8//2026-06-292026-052026-042026-032026-02原油运输指数(BDTI)-6.4%93.1%46.7%83.7%1935.02068.02767.03705.01991.0交通运输波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)-22.8%63.7%32.7%88.1%2490.03224.02686.01995.02140.0INE集运指数(欧线):期货结算价（元/吨）2.7%63.2%68.4%80.8%3079.52999.01782.81682.01242.82026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02建筑业PMI（%）0.4%-7.2%/17.4%49.048.848.049.31991.0建筑装饰建筑业PMI:新订单（%）6.4%3.1%/87.0%46.343.541.643.52140.0开工率:石油沥青装置（%）-15.8%-55.9%/0.0%13.816.317.721.91242.82026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-0230城商品房成交面积:日均（万平方米）13.7%-6.7%/73.9%28.725.223.527.413.4房地产 2026-06-222026-052026-042026-032026-02二手房出售挂牌价指数:日均-0.4%-7.7%/0.0%142.3143.0143.6144.5146.72026-05-312026-042026-032026-022026-01保费收入:保险公司（亿元）8.4%-1.5%/60.9%4578.34225.16682.64571.711849.9非银金融 2026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02A股日均成交额（万亿元）-2.1% 134.7% /96.4%A股日均成交额（万亿元）-2.1% 134.7% /96.4%3.13 3.20 2.36 2.33 2.31三、估值比较：“K”型分化加剧，关注估值处于中枢的周期/制造行业K通信建材机械等行业估值扩张明显6月，全A指数估值、PB估值较5月底上修.、.KPE估值修复程度在估值修复程度约2%。此外，商贸零售、煤炭、石油石化、汽车、食品饮料等行业的估值下修明显，幅度超10%。图表年5月申万级行业值变幅度（至5%0%-5%

5%-4%

13%6%0%

PE本月变动幅度 PB本月变动幅度29%12%-3%

8%2%-4%-10%-15%

-9%

-6%

-6%--

-6%-9%-9%

-11%

-5%-9%

-6%-9%

-6%-2%--

-12%

-13%

-14%石煤有基钢建机电国汽农食纺医家轻社商美电通计传公建交环房银非油