2026全球矿业年度报告从愿景到行动

Mine2026

Ambitiontoaction

Thevitalminingindustrymustlook

beyondgeologytopolicy,capital,andproductivitymeasurestounlockvalue.

Contents

Thetakeaways

•Fortheworld’stop

40miningcompanies,2025wasasolidyearasrevenuesgrew

3.3%toUS$909

billionandnetprofitsrosetoUS$120billion.

•Whilegeology

determineswho

canparticipatein

mining,theabilitytomakeitinvestable

andthepositioning

ofcapitalproviders

shapewhocapturesthemostvalue.

Governmentsneed

tocreateframeworksthatsupportstable

investmentandprofitability.

•Keytrendsincludeproductivityand

technology,with

AIadoptionsettoachievesignificantgainsformining

companies.

01Introduction03

02Policyinmotion10

03Capitalinmotion20

04Productivityasastrategytoaccelerateinnovation26

underconstraint

Contactus31

Appendices33

01PwC3

Introduction

Thepressureisontheglobalminingindustry.Theworldisnavigatinganera

ofenergysecuritychallenges,geopoliticalfragmentation,theimpactsofa

technology-fuelledfourthindustrialrevolution,andrisingsocietalexpectations.

Tomeetthegrowingdemandformetalsandminerals,theindustryneedsto

delivermoreofthem—anddosomoreefficiently.Aswelooktothefutureof

mining,there’saclearneedtodiversifyproductionandprocessing.Andthat

meansworkingmoreeffectivelyinanecosystemthat’scredible,investable,andresilient.

Meetingthesechallengesandcapturingvaluefromevolvingglobalsupplychainsisacentralimperative.Tosucceed,themanyplayersandparticipantsinthe

miningecosystem—whichincludesminingandprocessingfirms,policymakers,investors,endusers,andcompaniesinadjacentindustries—needtocollaborateastheymovefromambitiontoactionacrossthreebroadareas.

First,governmentsneedtosetpolicyinmotion,developingtheincentivesandregulatoryframeworksthatsupportstableinvestmentandminingprofitability.

Second,whilegeologydetermineswhocanparticipateinmining,theability

tomakeprojectsinvestableandthepositioningofcapitalprovidersultimatelydictatewhocapturesthemostvalue.Asaresult,theecosystemmustset

capitalinmotiontomakeprojectsoperationalandcreategreaterupstreamandmidstreamproductioncapacity.

Third,operatingcompaniesmustadopttechnologicalsolutions,notablyAI,

toenhanceproductivityatthemineface,whilealsoimprovingefficiencyandperformanceatabroaderstrategiclevel.Thechallengesthrowintostarkrelieftheneedforgreatercollaborationacrosssectorandindustryboundaries.

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Thesepressurescomeastheindustryreportswhatwasinmanyrespectsasolidyearforthetop40miningcompanies(bymarketcapitalisation)thatweanalyse.

Totalrevenuesgrew3.3%toUS$909billionfromUS$880billionin2024,while

earningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,andamortisationsurged23%to

US$248billionandnetprofitrosetoUS$120billion.Theimprovementreflects

twokeyfactors:first,sharplyhigherpricesforpreciousmetals(includinggoldandsilver),platinumgroupmetals,andenergymetalssuchascopper;andsecond,

improvedoperationalleverageanddisciplinedcostmanagement.

Asolidyearforthetop40

Bothrevenueandprofitabilityroseamidhigherpricesforpreciousmetalsandcostdiscipline.

Revenues(excludinggold)Revenues(gold)EBITDA

DistributiontoshareholdersCapitalexpenditure

Revenues

US$1,000bn

US$800bn

US$600bn

US$400bn

US$200bn

US$0bn

EBITDA,distributiontoshareholders,andcapex

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025

US$500bn

US$400bn

US$300bn

US$200bn

US$100bn

US$0bn

Note:Goldrevenuesareshownseparatelyonlyforthepastfouryears,duringwhichthey’vecomprisedasignificantportionoftotalrevenues.Priorto2022,goldrevenuesaredisplayedaspartoftotalrevenues.Source:PwC’sglobalMinereports,2016–25;companyfinancialstatements;PwCanalysis

PwC5

Aswecanseebelow,theheadlineimprovementsmasksignificantdivergencesandnuancesintheresults.

1.Profitabilityrecovers

TheaggregateEBITDAmarginforthetop40increasedto27%in2025from23%thepreviousyear.Netprofitmarginsroseto13%from11%overthesametimeperiod.

GoldproducersrecordedanaggregateEBITDAmarginofapproximately71%.

AggregateEBITDAforthegoldsubsectorrosebyUS$22billion,representingtheyear’ssinglelargestcommodity-levelearningsimprovement.Coppercompanies’aggregateEBITDAgrew80%toUS$13.3billionfromUS$7.4billionin2024.

Bycontrast,coalsawadeclineinrevenues,down10.7%toUS$101.9billion,whileEBITDAincreased5%toUS$32.7billion.

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2.Goldcompaniesontherise

Preciousmetalscompaniesmininggold,silver,andplatinumgroupmetals

accountedforsixoftheeightnewentrantstothetop40.Theremainingtwonewentrantswerecoppercompanies.Severalgold-focusedcompaniesadvanced

significantlyintherankings.GoldminersNewmontandAgnicoEagleMines

jumpedfourplaces,tofifthandsixthrespectively,whileBarrickMining(goldandcopper)climbedtenplacestorankseventh.

Theevolvingcompositionofthetop40miners

Gold-andcoal-focusedcompaniesincreasedtheirpresencein2025.

20242025

Numberofcompanies

10

5

0

13

12

11

11

7

555

4

3

2

11

0

DiversifiedGoldOtherprecious

metals

(includingsilver)

CopperCoalLithiumOthers

Source:PwCanalysis

PwC7

3.Operatingcashflowsurges

Highercommoditypricesflowedthroughtocashconversionforboththepure-playanddiversifiedminers.Aggregatenetoperatingcashflowsofthetop40

increased12%toUS$173.6billion.TopearnerswereBHP,whichgenerated

operatingcashflowsofUS$19.8billion(up49%fromUS$13.3billionin2024),followedbyZijinMiningGroupatUS$10.5billion(up128%fromUS$4.6billionin2024)andNewmontatUS$10.3billion(up61%fromUS$6.4billionin2024).

Buttherisingcashflowhasn’tnecessarilytranslatedintotangibleincreasesin

capitalexpenditure.Capitalvelocity—thepaceatwhichcompaniesusecapitaltoinvestingrowth—ofthetop40wasflatin2025.Thestrategicquestionfor2026iswhethermanagementteamscanchannelthesecashsurplusesintoM&A,organicgrowth,debtreduction,orcontinuedshareholderreturns.

Growthincapitalexpenditureoutpacescapitalvelocity

CapitalexpenditureCapitalvelocity

CapitalexpenditureCapitalvelocity

US$100bn

US$80bn

US$60bn

US$40bn

US$20bn

US$0bn

201720182019202020212022202320242025

20%

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

Note:Capitalvelocitymeasureshowquicklycompaniesarereinvestingrelativetothecapitaltheyhavetiedupinassets.It'scalculatedascapitalexpendituredividedbytotalinvestedcapital(property,plant,andequipmentpluscurrentassetsminuscurrentliabilities).

Source:S&PCapitalIQ,PwCanalysis

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4.Shareholderbuybackresurgence

Sharebuybacksgrew252%in2025,drivenbygoldcompanies,toreachUS$5.8billion.Thesubstitutionofbuybacksfordividendsamonggoldproducersmay

representastrategicshiftincapitalreturnphilosophy—onethat’smoreflexibleandtax-efficientorthatmayreflectuncertaintyaboutfuturecommodityprices.

Othercompaniesarelikelytoadoptsimilarapproachesasfreecash-flowgenerationimproves.

5.Prudentdebtmanagement

BorrowingsincreasedmarginallybyUS$2.6billiontoreachUS$251billion,whilenetdebt—drivenbyhighercashgenerationin2025—decreasedbyUS$10billion.Theincreaseinequityrelativetodebtsuggestsimprovinggearingratiosacross

thetop40.Thisisanoverallpositivesignalforcreditratingsandthecostof

capital.Butweseeacleardistinction,again,betweengoldandcopperminersontheonehandandcoalcompaniesontheother.

6.Taxcontributionsgrow

Theeffectivetaxrateforthetop40reached30%in2025from28%theyear

before.TotaltaxexpensewasUS$52billion,whichwas37%higherthanin2024duetohigherminingprofitability.

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Note:TransactionsvaluedatoraboveUS$5billionareconsideredmegadeals.

Source:S&PCapitalIQ,PwCanalysis

7.Gold,silver,copper,andlithiumdrivedeals

Dealvolumedeclinedin2025,withthenumberofcompleteddealsfalling20%

in2025from2024.Butthevalueofthedealsrosesignificantly,toppingUS$70

billion.Gold,silver,copper,andlithiumaccountedfor70%ofoveralldealvalue.Thelargesttransactiontoclosein2025wasRioTinto’sUS$6.7-billionacquisitionofArcadiumLithium.

Miningfordeals

In2025,M&Avolumefellevenasthetotalvaluerose.

TotaldealvolumeTotaldealvalueTotaldealvalue,excludingmegadeals

NumberofdealsDealvalue

1,500US$90bn

1,000US$60bn

500US$30bn

0US$0bn

20212022202320242025

02PwC10

Policyinmotion

Thecriticalmineralsraceistoooftenframedasacontestdecidedbyasingle

factor:geology.Countriesluckyenoughtopossessthesemineralsareassumedtoholdastructuraladvantageoverthosewithoutthem.Butinfact,success

incriticalmineralsalsodependsonfactorsthatcountriescancontrol.Aswe

highlightedinour

Mine2025report

,productionadvantagesgotonationsthatcomplementtheirgeologicalendowmentwithprocessingcapability.China,for

example,accountsformorethan50%ofproductionfor18mineralsandholds

significantsharesofreservesacrossmanymore.YetChinaalsodominatesthe

processingandrefiningofmineralsthatareextractedmainlyinotherpartsoftheworld.

Geology,inotherwords,isnolongersufficient.Countrieswithexceptionalresourcepositionscanleavevaluestrandedifprojectsdon’tgettimely

permits,adequatecapital,orefficientprocessingtechnology.Thosewithmore

modestendowmentscanstillsecurestrategicrelevanceifpolicy,capital,and

technologicalcapabilitymakeprojectsinvestableandmidstreamcapacityviable.

Thismeansthenextphaseofcompetitionwillbedecidedlessbywhocan

articulateambitionsmostclearlythanbywhocancreateacredibleroutefrompolicytocapitalandcapability.

Meaningfulchangewilltakemanyyearstoshiftthecurrentconcentrationofactivity.Thedevelopmentofminesandmidstreamprocessinginfrastructurespansyearsandevendecades.Andthegripofincumbentsremainsstrong.

Thechartbelowanalysestheapproachesofninedifferentcountriesacrossfivekeydimensions:strategicclarity,deliveryarchitecture,fundingandde-risking,evidenceofexecution,andsovereigncapability.Whatlinkstheseapproachesisn’tacommonideologybutasetofsharedinsights.Criticalmineralssuccess

PwC11

dependsonreducingriskacrosstheprojectlifecycleandvaluechain.Resourceextractionmayestablishrelevance,butmidstreamcapabilityiswhatturnsit

intolastingeconomicbenefit.Thisiswhythere’saneedforpolicychangestotranslatethepotentialtodevelopmineralsintominingandprocessingprojectsthatreachtheoperationalstage.

Criticalmineralspolicypositioningaroundtheworld

Bubblesize=publicfunding/de-riskingstrength

5.5

5

Strategicsovereignimportance

4.5

4

3.5

3

Strategicam

bition,delivery

gap

Polic

yleaders/strat

egicanchors

India

C

anada

China

Australia

Chi

le

South

Africa

Unite

Brazild

Indonesia

Watchlist/ea

rlystage

Kingd

om

Targetedexe

cutionniche

1.522.533.544.55

Implementationcredibility

Note:Implementationcredibilityistheaverageofassessmentsofcountries’deliveryarchitecture,fundingandde-riskingframeworks,andevidenceofexecution.Strategicsovereignimportanceistheaverageofassessmentsofcountries’strategicclarityandsovereigncapabilitygoals.

Source:PwCanalysis

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Below,wedescribethewaysinwhichtheeightkeycountries(excludingChina)areapproachingthechallengesofturningpolicyintoaction.

Australiamakestheclearestpolicypivottowardsmidstreamactivities

Australia’s

CriticalMineralsStrategy2023–30

focusesonusingasmall

numberofpowerfulfiscal,financing,andstrategicmeasurestobuildsovereigncapabilitiesandimprovetheeconomicsofcriticalmineralsprocessing,refining,andsupply-chainresilience.Recentpolicymoveshavesharpenedthatambitionbyintroducingfinancialtoolssuchastaxincentives,loans,andguarantees.

IntroducedundertheFutureMadeinAustraliainitiative,the10%productiontax

incentiveappliestoeligibleexpendituresfortheprocessingandrefiningofcriticalmineralsprocessedandrefinedbetweenJuly2027andJune2040,foruptotenyearsperproject.Itworksalongsidepublicfinancearchitecture,includingthe

CriticalMineralsFacility

,anAU$5-billionloanandguaranteefacilitydesigned

tofinanceprojectsandassociatedinfrastructurethatare

strategicallyvaluable

butdifficulttofundonstandardcommercialtermsalone

.TheCriticalMineralsStrategicReserve,announcedin2026,willdrawAU$1billionfromtheCritical

MineralsFacilityalongsideAU$150millionforselectivestockpiling.Thefirst

mineralsidentifiedforthereserveareantimony,gallium,andrare-earthelements.Thekeyoutstandingchallengeistobuildprocessingassetsatscalethatcan

competewithestablishedlower-costincumbents.

Brazilplaysindustrialcatch-uptomovebeyondrawexports

Brazilenjoysoneoftheworld’sstrongestgeologicalendowments.Legislators

arenowworkingonapolicytomovebeyondraw-materialexportsinto

processing,refining,andtechnology-linkedvaluechains.Asofthiswriting,the

billestablishingtheNationalPolicyforCriticalandStrategicMineralshasbeen

approvedbytheChamberofDeputiesandiscurrentlyawaitingconsiderationbytheSenate.

Keycomponentsincludeamineralactivityguaranteefund,seededwithabout

R$2billionfromthefederalgovernmentandsupportedbyincentivessuchasuptoR$5billionintaxcreditsoverfiveyearstopromotedomesticprocessingand

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conversionofminerals.Thepolicyalsocallsforformingadedicatedgovernancebodythatwilldefineandregularlyupdatethenationallistofcriticalandstrategicmineralsandsetpriorityprojectseligibleforpolicysupport.

Successdependsoncoordinatingpermits;clarifyingminerallists;managingfiscalincentives;improvingtheNationalMiningAgency’scapacity;andestablishing

trustworthyenvironmental,social,andgovernanceandtraceabilitysystemsamidpoliticalsensitivityaroundmining.

Canadaplacesmineralsatthecentreofeconomicpolicy

Canada,aresource-richcountry,doesn’tassumegeologywillconvertitselfinto

outcomes.Instead,it’ssystematicallyimprovingtheconditionsthatallowcapitaltomoveacrossthevaluechainwithmeasuresthatincludeexplorationincentives,infrastructureinvestment,researchsupport,processinginitiatives,fiscallevers,

andsovereign-financetools.Canadaintroduceditscriticalmineralsstrategyin

2022,withafocusoncapturingmorevaluefromminetomarket.Between2022

and2024,

accordingtotheCanadiangovernment

,domesticproductionofninecriticalmineralsrose10%.

In2025,Canadareneweditsfocusonnaturalresourcesasacoreeconomic

andstrategicpillaramidchallengingtradeandgeopoliticalconditions.AtatimewhenCanada’salliesarelookingtosecuresuppliesofstrategiccommodities,

thecountry’sambitionistoleadasatrustedtradingpartner.Thishasinvolved

investinginprojectsforthefirsttime(throughprogrammessuchastheCritical

MineralsSovereignFund,CanadaGrowthFund,andCanadaStrongFund).Ithasalsoinvolvedspeedingupprojectdevelopmentthroughseveralinitiatives.Five

miningprojectshavebeendeemedtobeofnationalimportanceandsignificancebytheMajorProjectsOffice,withcombinedestimatedcapitalinvestmentsof

approximatelyCA$11billion.CanadaisalsolookingtodeepeninternationalcollaborationthroughexpandedtradeagreementsandinitiativessuchastheGroupofSevenCriticalMineralsActionPlan.

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KeyhighlightsforCanada

56

Activecriticalmineralsmines

31

Processingfacilities

171

Advancedcriticalmineralprojects

33

Cleanenergy/transportprojectssupported

56

R&DprojectslaunchedunderCriticalMineralsGeoscienceandDataInitiative

79

R&DprojectsfundedunderCriticalMineralsResearch,Development,andDemonstrationProgram

Including28processingprojects

Including42focusedonmidstreamextraction,processing,andcleantechnologies

Source:Canada’sCriticalMineralsStrategy

Chilepursuessovereigncontrolasaroutetoinvestment

Chilehasstruggledinrecentyearstomaintainitshistoriccopperproductionlevels,duetoacombinationoffactors.It’spursuingadifferentapproachforlithium.Throughanarrowermodel,thestatestructuresaccess,sequencing,andcontroltoconvertitslithiumgeologicaladvantageintolong-termnationalleverage.Underthe

NationalLithiumStrategy

(2023),thegovernmentis

deployingacombinationofstate-ownedenterprises,contractualframeworks,andinstitutionalreformstoincreaseinvestment.Fornow,Chile’sgreatest

strengthliesinresourcegovernanceandprojectmobilisationratherthandependingonachievementoffullydevelopedmidstreamscale.

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Chileancopperminingactivityovertime

MinedquantityNetexportsofminedproduct

RefinedquantityNetexportsofrefinedproduct

Percentageof2014amount

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source:PwCanalysis,UNComtrade,BritishGeologicalSurvey

Privateplayerscanparticipatethroughspeciallithiumoperatingcontracts

(CEOLs),whicharetime-boundinstrumentsthatallowforexplorationand

production,whilethestateretainsownership,revenueshare,andoversight.

Thesearrangementsoperateundertightenvironmentalandsocialstandards

thatincludeprovisionsforindigenousconsultationandapushfordirectlithiumextraction(DLE)technology.KeyexamplesofCEOLsinclude

RioTintoand

ENAMI

signinganagreementfortheSalaresAltoandinosdevelopment(July

2025),CodelcoandSQM

receivingapproval

forlithiumexplorationintheSalardeAtacama(December2025),and

CleanTechLithiumagreeingtotermsfor

theLagunaVerdeprojec

t.

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Indialookstoboostcapabilitiesthroughfiscal,financing,andinstitutionalmeasures

India’scriticalmineralsstrategyfocusesonbuildingend-to-enddomestic

capabilitiesthroughacoordinatedsetoffiscal,financing,andinstitutional

measures.The

NationalCriticalMineralMission

,launchedin2024withanoutlayof₹34,300crore(aboutUS$4billion),setsthestrategicdirectionforsecuring30identifiedcriticalminerals.Recognisingtheimpactoflimiteddomesticreserves,IndiaisactivelysecuringforeignmineralassetsthroughKhanijBideshIndiaLtd.andotherpublicsectorundertakings.

Indiaisalsomovingbeyondminingtobuildmidstreamanddownstream

capabilitiesbyintroducingproduction-linkedincentivesthatsupportactivities

relatedtobatterycells,rare-earthproductionmagnets,advancedmaterials,

andprocessingparks.Thegovernmenthasintroducedincentivesschemesformetalrecycling,aswellasinitiativessuchasreducedcustomsduties,supportforresearchanddevelopmentactivitiesandcentresofexcellence,andstrategicofftakearrangements.

Thecentralchallengenowistotranslatethesepolicycommitmentsandfinancialincentivesintoprocessingandrefiningcapacityontheground.

Indonesiaaimstoapplynickelsuccesstobauxite

Since2020,Indonesiahasbannedexportsofrawnickelore,ofwhichitproducestwo-thirdsofglobalsupply.Thisispartofitslong-runningefforttomoveupthe

nickelsupplychainbyincreasinginvestmentinsmeltingandrefining.Indonesiaisnowseekingtorecreatethislargelysuccessfuleffortwithbauxite,ofwhich

thecountryholdsreservesof

2.9billiondrymetrictonnes

(representing10%ofglobalreserves)andwhoseraworeexportsitbannedin2023.Thequestionnowiswhetherthispolicycanworkinafreeandefficientmarketwhenbuyershave

otheroptionstosecuresupplyfrommorecost-effectivesourcesofbauxite.In

May2026,Indonesia

announced

planstocentralisecommodityexportsthroughastate-runagency,apolicythatcouldhavefurtherimpactsonmetalsmarkets.

PwC17

Indonesiannickelminingactivityovertime

RefinedquantityNetexportsofrefinedproductMinedquantityNetexportsofminedproduct

Percentageof2014amount

16,000%

12,000%

8,000%

4,000%

0%

201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source:PwCanalysis,UNComtrade,BritishGeologicalSurvey

SouthAfricaprioritisesstronggeology,explicitdiagnosis,andearlyexecution

SouthAfrica’sgovernmentisseekingtocapitaliseonitsmineralpotentialbycreatingtheconditionsthatfavourinvestment,beneficiation,andindustrial

scaling.Sofar,SouthAfrica’sstrategyismorediagnosticthandemonstrative.

The

2025CriticalMineralsandMetalsStrategy

describesamineralendowmentwithrelevanceacrossbatteries,electricvehicles,renewableenergy,hydrogen,

aerospace,anddefence.Thestrategyisbuiltonsixpillars—geoscienceandexploration,valueadditionandlocalisation,researchandskills,infrastructureandenergysecurity,financialinstruments,andregulatoryharmonisation—thattogetheramounttoapracticaldiagnosisoftherealbottlenecks.

Thepolicyalsocoversmanyreformsgearedtowardscreationofvaluelocally.

Theseincludeaone-stoplicensingsystemtoaccelerateprospectingrights,

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expansionoftheJuniorMiningExplorationFund,explorationofaflow-throughsharesscheme,taxandroyaltyadjustments,beneficiationhubsbackedby

infrastructure,andabroaderfinancingframework.

SouthAfricaalsohasthepotentialtoactasaregionalmineralshub.The

World

EconomicForum’sDecember2025SouthernAfrica

analysisarguesthat

criticalmineralpotentialwillbeunlockedmosteffectivelythroughintegrated

regionalvaluechainsinwhichextraction,processing,andbeneficiationare

distributedacrossSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunitycountries.The

questionnowiswhetherSouthAfricacanharnessitsregionalrole,industrial

base,andpartnershippotentialtocreateamodelthatbuildscriticalmineralvaluechains.

UnitedKingdomemphasisesattractivenesstoinvestmentovergeology

TheUnitedKingdom’scriticalmineralsstrategyhingesonthepremisethata

countrycanbuildrelevancethroughselectivedomesticproduction,stronger

recycling,innovativemidstreamprocessing,marketcoordination,andfinancial

support.The

Vision2035:CriticalMinerals

Strategytargetscompetitive

advantagesinmidstreamprocessingandrecycling.Italsosetsmeasurablegoalsfor10%ofaggregateannualUKdemandforcriticalmineralstobemetthrough

domesticproductionby2035,includingbyproducingatleast50,000tonnesof

lithium,andforafurther20%suppliedthroughrecycling.Thestrategyfocusesondemandvisibility,marketcoordination,projectfinance,andprocessingcapability.Onthefinancingside,forexample,theUnitedKingdom’sNationalWealthFund

providedacommitmentofupto£31millioninSeptember2025fortheTrelavourhardrockandCrossLaneslithiumprojects.

Thebroaderdeliveryarchitectureisdesignedtoreduceriskandmobilise

investmentacrossthevaluechainthroughtwocomponents:financingand

systems.TheDepartmentforBusinessandTrade(DBT)hasallocatedupto

£50millionindirectsupportforcriticalmineralprojects,alongsideothertools

suchastheDrivingResearchandInvestmentinVehicleElectrification(DRIVE35)programme,aDBT-ledinit