【全球能源监测机构】2026全球煤电繁荣与衰退追踪报告

GlobalEnergyMonitor

BoomandBustCoal2026

Trackingtheglobalcoalplantpipeline

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AbouttheGlobalCoalPlantTracker

TheGlobalCoalPlantTrackerisanonlinedatabasethatidentifiesandmapseveryknowncoal-firedgeneratingunitandeverynewunitproposedsinceJanuary1,2010(30MWandlarger).DevelopedbyGlobalEnergyMonitor,thetrackerusesfootnotedwikipagestodocumenteachplantandisupdatedbiannually.Forfurtherdetails,seeTrackerMethodology.

Authors

TheleadGlobalEnergyMonitorauthorsincludeChristineShearer,LucyHummer,GregorClark,andJeanetteLim.

Contributingauthorsinclude:PippaGallop(Bankwatch);SamoraLevy,OykuSenlen,HamsaSrikanth(E3G);YannLouvel,PatrickMcCully(ReclaimFinance);andAlfaArifiaSetiawan,ZakkiAmali,NovitaIndriPratiwi,HerdanangAhmadFauzan

(TrendAsia).

Editingandproduction

Designby89up.PagelayoutbyDavidVanNess.FiguresledbyAliceFeng.EditingcontributionsprovidedbyStefaniCoxandDavidHoffman.CopyeditsbyAmandaDeBord.

Imagecredits

Cover:(left)ByKidClutchunderCCby2.0license(right)ByTimvanderKuipunderUnsplashlicense.

Page10:ByArnoSenonerunderUnsplashlicense.

Page36:ByEsaSetiawanwithTrendAsia.

Page42:ByMarkWatersunderCCby2.0license.

Page49:ByZeynelCebeciunderCCBY-SA4.0license.

Permissions/copyright

Copyright©GlobalEnergyMonitor.DistributedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicense.

Furtherresources

Foradditionaldataonproposedandexistingcoalplants,seeSummaryDataontheGEMwebsite,whichprovidesover

20tablesprovidingresultsfromtheGlobalCoalPlantTracker(GCPT),brokendownbyprovince,nation,andregion.ForlinkstoreportsbasedonGCPTdata,seeReports&BriefingsontheGEMwebsite.ToobtainprimarydatafromtheGCPT,seeDownloadDataontheGEMwebsite.

Acknowledgements

Contributingresearchersandreviewersinclude,butarenotlimitedto:MingxinZhang,XingZhang,FloraChampenois

(GEM);QiQin,BelindaSchäpe,KatherineHasan,LauriMyllyvirta(CREA);NilayVardar,AlexandruMustata,Perceval

Pradelle(BeyondFossilFuels);DonghyunGo,SeokhwanJeong,AyleenLippert,YounglakHong(SFOC);YasukoSuzuki

(KikoNetwork);ElifCansuİlhan,ÖzlemKatısöz,FrosinaAntonovska,SamuelMartin-Sosa(CANEurope);Muhammad

BadarAlam,ShaheeraTahir(PRIED);HasanMehedi(CLEAN&BWGED);SharifJamil(WKB&DHORA);GonzaloMelejElgart,SaraLarraín(ChileSustentable);MarianaVillegas,NadiaCombariza(POLENTransicionesJustas);NicoleFigueiredode

Oliveira,JulianoBuenodeAraújo,JohnWurdig,RenatadeLoyolaPrata,UriasdeMouraBuenoNeto,RenataSembay,

FátimaFrança(ARAYARAInternationalInstitute);OlehSavytskyi,MarinaAgortimevor(AfricaJustTransitionNetwork);andJasonKirkpatrick(RazomWeStand).

GlobalEnergyMonitoralsothanksadditionalindividualsandorganizationsfortheirtime,insights,and/ordata,includingbutnotlimitedto:DanPrull,PhD(SierraClub);BahadırSercanGümüş,SarahBrown(Ember);EmelTürker(Greenpeace

Akdeniz);MustafaÖzgürBerke(EuropeanClimateFoundation);HülyaÇeşmeciCengiz(MekandaAdaletDerneği);HaneeaIsaad(IEEFA);TatianaLanshina(AgoraEnergiewende);andINSAPROMA.

Mediacontact

ChristineShearer,PhD

ProjectManager,GlobalCoalPlantTracker

christine.shearer@

PublishedMay2026

BoomandBustCoal2026

TrackingtheGlobalCoalPlantPipeline

Executivesummary

In2025,theworldbuiltmorecoalanduseditless.Newcoalpowercapacityadditionsreachedoneofthehighestlevelsonrecord,evenascoal-firedelectricitygeneration

declined.ThisgapwasparticularlypronouncedinChinaandIndia,wherewindandsolarmetmostorallnewdemand,drivingdowncoalgenerationevenascoalplant

commissioningreacheddecadehighs.

Asthegapbetweencoalplantsandthepowertheyproducewidened,coalcapacityisincreasinglymaintainednotasaprimarysourceofgenerationbutasaformofsysteminsurance,valuedforitsavailabilityintimesof

stressratherthanitsday-to-dayuse.Thiswas

evidentin2025acrossbothcountrieswithlargedomesticcoalmining—suchasChina,India,andtheU.S.—andcoal-importingregions,includingpartsoftheEU.

InChina,recordnewcoalplantproposalswerejustifiedasprovidingflexiblesupportforthe

electricitysystemandsafeguardingdomesticenergysupply.InIndia,thecoaldevelopmentpipelineexpandedforafifthconsecutiveyearundersimilarreliabilityandenergysecurity

arguments.IntheU.S.,federalemergency

powerskeptcoalplantsoperatingthatwouldotherwisehaveretired,whileseveralEU

countriesalsodelayedplannedcoalplant

retirements,citingenergysecurityconcerns.

Yet,theconditionsthatmakecoalappear

necessaryalsorenderitredundant.InChinaandIndia,coalisbeingbuilttobackuparenewable

expansionthatisalreadydisplacingit.Forcoal-importingcountries,thepricevolatilitythatcanmakecoalappearcompetitivecomparedtogasalsomakesthecasefor

movingbeyondfossilfuelsentirely.The2021–2022energycrisisillustratedthis:Highergaspricesdroveupcoalprices,acceleratingcleanenergydeploymentratherthan

triggeringalastingcoalrevival.

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Asmorecoalisretainedthanpowersystemsrequire,capacityisincreasinglyabsorbedthroughlowerutilizationratesratherthanhighergeneration,placingpressureonplanteconomicsandraisingtheriskofstrandedassets.TheU.S.stoodoutastheonlymajoreconomyin2025toincreasecoalgeneration,underapolicyshiftthatexplicitly

curtailedcleanenergydeployment—insulatingcoalfromthecompetitivepressureerodingitseconomicsanduseelsewhere.

Whilesomegovernmentscontinuetopromotecoalpowerthroughpolicyintervention,thetotalnumberofcountriespursuingnewcoaldevelopmentisshrinking.In2025,only32countrieswereproposingorbuildingnewcoalplants,downfrom38theprevious

yearand75in2014.LatinAmericareachedNoNewCoalstatusin2025,whileSouth

Koreacommittedtocoalphaseout.Incountrieswheredevelopmentcontinues,activityisoftenlimitedtoasmallnumberoflingeringorone-offcoalprojects.Ofallcoalpowercapacityunderconstructionglobally,only5%isoutsideofChinaandIndia.

Astheglobalcoalpipelinenarrows,newdevelopmentisincreasinglyconfinedtoasmallnumberofcountriesandregions,shapedmorebycountry-specificpolicychoicesthanbybroadermarkettrends.Thecentralchallengeheadinginto2026isnottheavailabilityofalternativestocoal,butthepersistenceofpolicyframeworksthatcontinuetotreat

coalasnecessaryevenaspowersystemsmoveincreasinglybeyondit.

Keydevelopmentsof2025

●In2025,globalcoalpowercapacitycontinuedtogrowevenascoal-firedgenerationdeclined.Globalcoalcapacityincreasedby3.5%,whilecoal

generationfellby0.6%,reinforcingawideningdisconnectbetweencoalcapacityadditionsandhowmuchcoalwasactuallyused.

●CoalgenerationfellmostsharplyinChinaandIndiaevenasbothcountries

recordedhighcommissioning.InChina,coalcapacityexpandedby6%whilegenerationdeclined1.2%;inIndia,capacitygrewby3.8%whilegenerationfell2.9%.Inbothcountries,windandsolarmetmostorallincrementaldemand,

contributingtothedivergencebetweenrisingcapacityandfallingoutput.

●InChina,newandreactivatedcoalpowerprojectsin2025surgedtoarecordhighof161.7GW.Inall,Chinahasover500GWofcoal-firedcapacityin

development.Ifbuilt,theprojectswouldcommitChinatoyearsofcoal

expansionwellintoits15thFive–YearPlanperiod(2026–2030),duringwhichthegovernmenthaspledgedtoreducecoalconsumption.

●Indiarecorded27.9GWofnewandreactivatedcoalplantproposalsin2025.Inall,Indiahas107.3GWofcapacityinpre-constructionplanningandanother23.5GWunderconstruction.TheIndiangovernmenthassetatargettoadd100GWofnewcoalcapacityoverthenextsevenyears,evenasrecordadditionsofsolarandwindpushednon-fossilcapacitytomorethanhalfoftotalinstalled

powercapacityin2025.

●Globally,nearly70%ofcoal-firedunitsscheduledtoretirein2025didnotdoso,including69%ofscheduledretirementsintheEUand59%intheU.S.IntheEU,mostmissedretirementsreflectpostponementsthatbeganduringthe

2022–23energycrisis,evenasformalcoalphaseoutcommitmentsremaininplace.IntheU.S.,retirementdelaysweremoredirectlytiedtogovernment

interventionthatkeptagingcoalplantsonlinethroughexplicitorders.

●Coaldevelopmentcontinuedtonarrowgeographically.Thenumberof

countriesproposingorbuildingnewcoalplantsfellfrom38in2024to32in

2025.CountriesexitingthecoalpipelineincludedSouthKorea,whichpledgedin2025tophaseoutcoalpowerby2040,andBrazilandHonduras,leaving

LatinAmericafreeofanynewcoalpowerproposals.

●CoalconstructionoutsideChinaandIndiahitarecordlow,atjust5%ofglobalconstructioncapacityin2025.Globalcoalexpansionisincreasinglydrivenbyasmallsetofcountriesratherthanbroad-basedglobaldemand.

●Indonesia’scoalfleetgrewby7%in2025,withaquarteroftheincreasetiedtocaptivecoalfornickelandaluminumprocessing.Thecountryalsorankedthirdgloballyfortotalproposedcoalcapacity(11GW)behindChinaandIndia,

includingbothnewon-gridplansandtheongoingpersistenceofoff-gridcaptiveproposals.

●InTürkiye,justoneactivecoalplantproposalremainsasthecountrypreparestohosttheupcomingCOP31climateconference,downfromover70proposed

coalplantsin2015.

●InSouthAsiaoutsideofIndia,coalgenerationislargelyimport-dependent.

WhilePakistanhasrapidlydeployeddistributedsolarthatstabilizesagainst

shiftingfossilfuelmarkets,Bangladeshhasfacedtechnicalandfuelsupply

challengeswithitsfossilpowerandhasyettoimplementsignificantrenewablecapacity.

●InSoutheastAsiaoutsideofIndonesia,newcoalcapacitycommissioning

declinedforthethirdyearinarow,evenasemerginggassupplydisruptionsin2026havepromptedsomecountriestoleanmoreheavilyonexistingcoal

capacity.

●InAfrica,coalproposalswereagainconcentratedinZimbabweandZambia,whichtogetheraccountedfortwo-thirdsofnewcoaldevelopmentin

theregion.

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary4

Keydevelopmentsof20255

Globaldatasummary9

Chinadrivesglobalcommissioningtonear-recordlevels11

Retirementdelaysextendcoallifetimes13

Coaldevelopmentacceleratesandconcentrates16

China:Coalpowerdevelopmentacceleratesdespitefallinggeneration20

Recordproposalsandcommissioning20

Laggingretirementsandlifeextension21

Changingsystemdynamics22

Policysupportsustainscoalas“back-up”22

Geographicconcentrationandprovincialdynamics22

ImplicationsforChina’spowersystemtransition24

India:Coalexpansioncollideswithcleanenergygoals24

OECD,G20,andnon-OECDcountries:Divergingregionalpathwaysforcoal

development26

OECD,EUandG20:Coal’sdecliningroleandastructuralshiftinpowersystems28

COPPresidenciesintheG20:Coalasatestofclimateleadership29

Non-OECDcountries:FragmentedcoaldevelopmentoutsideChinaandIndia30

Indonesia:Unevenregulationcomplicatescoal’sroleon-andoff-grid31

UnitedStates:Politicalinterventiondrivesupgenerationandprices36

EU27:Coalinterminaldecline40

SouthKoreaandJapan:Divergingcoalpathways44

Australia:Solar-ledtransitioncreatesopeningforano-new-coalpledge47

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Türkiye:Grassrootspushfortransitioncontrastsaggressivecoalproductionplans49

Canada:Coallifeextensionsdefynationalphaseout52

Pakistan:Distributedinstallationsdrivepowertransformationoutsideofthe

nationalgrid54

Bangladesh:Newenergyplan,samecentralissues57

SoutheastAsia:NewcoalstagnantbeyondIndonesia59

RussiaandCentralAsia:Domesticcoalexpandswhileexportplansfallthrough62

Russia62

Kazakhstan64

Mongolia65

CentralAsia:Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,andUzbekistan67

LatinAmerica:Nonewcoalplants,butbackslidingonretirementdates68

Brazil69

Chile72

Colombia74

DominicanRepublic75

Mexico75

Argentina76

Guadeloupe76

Guatemala76

Panama76

Africa:Coalproposalsremainlimitedbutpersistent77

WesternBalkans:RetirementdelaysconflictwithEUcarbonborderadjustment

mechanism80

Ukraine:Rebuildingthepowersystemforamoreresilientfuture83

Privatefinancecoalpolicytrendsin202584

Appendix1:Coalpowercapacitybystatusandcountry/area(MW)86Appendix2:Statuschangesin2025bycountry/area(MW)89

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Globaldatasummary

Globalcoalpowercapacitycontinuedtogrowin2025evenascoal-firedelectricity

generationdeclined,highlightingawideningdisconnectbetweeninstalledcoalpowerandtheelectricityitproduces.ThisdivergencewasdrivenparticularlybyChinaand

India,wherecoalcapacityexpandedby6%and3.8%whilegenerationfellby1.2%and2.9%,respectively.

Globalcoalcapacityrosein2025evenascoalgenerationfell—drivenbyChinaandIndia

Annualchangeinglobalcoalpowercapacityandgeneration,2024−2025

Source:GlobalEnergyMonitor,GlobalCoalPlantTracker,January2026,EmberGlobalElectricityReview2026

Figure1

gem

Theresultwasanetglobalcoalcapacitygrowthof3.5%alongsidea0.6%declineingeneration,reinforcingthatnewcapacityin2025wasabsorbedthroughlower

utilizationratherthanhigheroutput.

What