SK海力士短期情绪错杀长期版图重塑

图表1SKForwardPEForwardPB估值30

SKhynixForwardPE252015 15.01054.02010/12010/62010/12010/62010/112011/42011/92012/22012/72012/122013/52013/102014/32014/82015/12015/62015/112016/42016/92017/22017/72017/122018/52018/102019/32019/82020/12020/62020/112021/42021/92022/22022/72022/122023/52023/102024/32024/82025/12025/62025/112026/4SKHynixForwardPB65432.521 1.02010/12010/62010/12010/62010/112011/42011/92012/22012/72012/122013/52013/102014/32014/82015/12015/62015/112016/42016/92017/22017/72017/122018/52018/102019/32019/82020/12020/62020/112021/42021/92022/22022/72022/122023/52023/102024/32024/82025/12025/62025/112026/4BloombergDRAMNAND其他9%6%6%4%3%3%2%2%2%2%1%1%0%31%27%29%35%31%28%24%18%21%20%DRAMNAND其他9%6%6%4%3%3%2%2%2%2%1%1%0%31%27%29%35%31%28%24%18%21%20%23%21%27%60%67%65%61%66%69%74%80%77%78%76%78%73%DRAM总营收DRAM总营收YoYNAND总营收QoQ其他 256.8%198.1%144.3%124.8%93.8%74.8%66.1%47.4%24.1%43.6-17.5%34.3%-47.1%24.7%32.1%26.0%9.9% 7.0%12.5%10.0%-10.8%8070605040302010023Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q2

300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%

90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%

23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q2SKSK海力士(000660公司公告、华泰研究 公司公告、华泰研究图表4：公司营收（CY，万亿韩，%） 图表5：公司营收（CY，万亿韩元，%）NAND闪存营收QoQYoY359%248%158%127%103%59%NAND闪存营收QoQYoY359%248%158%127%103%59%33%8%39%45%-1%94%54%46%-50%2.2-2.%35%33%-27%47%17%-3%-4%-8%5%4.45.14.94.7-.%4.74.97.611.021.43.3238%191%238%191%160%146%99%86%61%58%57%71%38% 99%51%64%43%41%-50%21%12%21%21%11%31%-12%4.46.13%-4%10.812.114.614.117.119.124.941.057.97.67.3605040302010023Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q2

300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%

5.00.0

23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q2

400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%公司公告、华泰研究 公司公告、华泰研究图表6：公司盈利能力（CY，%） 图表7：公司库存情况（CY，万亿韩元，%）

毛利率 营业利润率68.8%71.5%%45.6%38.676.3%%41.4%33.3%19.7%23.2%0.7%3.1%42.2%46.6%-16.1-19.8%-39.4%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q2

库存 QoQ YoY38.2%1816151638.2%1816151634.1%13141514131313139.3%138.6%1.9%2.7%0.0%-0.3%0.4%-4.4%-3.5%-9.8%5.1%-1.2%-1.9%7.3%9.8%-1.5%-9.0%-19.4-18.7%-10.7%-7.9%-13.9%18161412108642023Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q2

50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%SKSK海力士(000660公司公告、华泰研究 公司公告、华泰研究图表8：全球现货平均价走势（单位：美元） 图表9：全球Flash现货平均价走势（单位：美元）现货平均价:DRAM:DDR4(16Gb(2Gx8),3200Mbps)现货平均价:DRAM:DDR5(16Gb(2Gx8),4800/5600Mbps)现货平均价:DRAM:DDR4(16Gb(2Gx8),3200Mbps)现货平均价:DRAM:DDR5(16Gb(2Gx8),4800/5600Mbps)现货平均价:NANDFlash(32Gb4Gx8MLC)现货平均价:NANDFlash(64Gb8Gx8MLC)80 3070256050 2040 1530102010 52024-052024-062024-072024-072024-052024-062024-072024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-042026-052026-062026-072024-072024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-042026-052026-06、DRAMexchange、华泰研究 、DRAMexchange、华泰研究SK海力士(000660图表10SK海力士(000660华泰研究预测图表11：HBM和NAND行业供需平衡表华泰研究预测SK海力士SK海力士(00066026/27E333/47428E5%577547万26/27/28E2%/1%/5%213/304/347209/300/329EPE至（前值x5年平均FdE约x作为DRAM龙头，盈利能力也从传统周期走向AI27E7xPE350万韩元至290万韩元。图表12：SK海力士盈利预测十亿韩元2022A2023A2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E营业总收入44,62232,76666,19397,147332,970474,132547,022YoY3.78%-26.57%102.02%46.76%242.75%42.39%15.37%DRAM28,52120,84945,17474,904252,269358,743423,826YoY-7.51%-26.90%116.67%65.81%236.79%42.21%18.14%位元出货量（mnGB）7,0328,02110,16713,09916,15417,45821,204ASP（韩元，1Gb）5073255557151,9522,5692,499HBM28,78245,542100,881150,340占DRAM比例38.42%18.05%28.12%35.47%位元出货量（mnGB）1,5042,1212,9143,685ASP（韩元，1Gb）19,1412,6844,3275,100NAND14,1699,72019,10620,69079,175113,389121,125YoY33.18%-31.40%96.57%8.29%282.67%43.21%6.82%位元出货量（mnGB）ASP（韩元，1GB）134,787105159,34661176,853108206,293100231,458342262,498432276,615438毛利润15,628-53331,82858,691273,194392,110437,656毛利率35.02%-1.63%48.08%60.41%82.05%82.70%80.01%销售及管理费用率9.73%10.52%5.93%5.17%4.00%4.00%4.50%研发费用率10.03%11.45%6.70%6.66%3.80%3.90%4.60%营业利润6,809-7,73023,46747,206247,222354,653387,877营业利润率15.26%-23.59%35.45%48.59%74.25%74.80%70.91%归母净利润2,230-9,11219,78942,919209,231299,627328,729归母净利润（十亿美元）1.5-6.313.629.6144.3206.6226.7归母净利率5.00%-27.81%29.90%44.18%62.84%63.19%60.09%EPS3,241-13,24527,15058,885287,065411,087451,015SK海力士公告 预测SKSK海力士(000660图表13：SK海力士盈利预测变动十亿韩元前值2026E新值变动 前值2027E新值变动 前值2028E新值变动营业总收入335,371332,970-0.72%470,318474,1320.81%577,223547,022-5.23%YoY245.22%242.75%-2.47%40.24%42.39%2.16%22.73%15.37%-7.36%DRAM257,327252,269-1.97%356,851358,7430.53%426,581423,826-0.65%YoY243.54%236.79%-6.75%38.68%42.21%3.53%19.54%18.14%-1.40%NAND75,94079,1754.26%111,364113,3891.82%148,465121,125-18.41%YoY267.04%282.67%15.63%46.65%43.21%-3.43%33.31%6.82%-26.49%毛利润277,392273,194-1.51%396,656392,110-1.15%461,946437,656-5.26%毛利率82.71%82.05%-0.66%84.34%82.70%-1.64%80.03%80.01%-0.02%销售及管理费用率4.00%4.00%0.00%4.00%4.00%0.00%4.50%4.50%0.00%研发费用率3.80%3.80%0.00%3.90%3.90%0.00%4.60%4.60%0.00%营业利润251,233247,222-1.60%359,501354,653-1.35%409,418387,877-5.26%营业利润率74.91%74.25%-0.66%76.44%74.80%-1.64%70.93%70.91%-0.02%归母净利润212,552209,231-1.56%303,641299,627-1.32%346,563328,729-5.15%归母净利率63.38%62.84%-0.54%64.56%63.19%-1.37%60.04%60.09%0.05%华泰研究预测图表14：SK海力士、美光和三星估值公司股票代码2026EPB2027E2028E2026EPE2027E2028E2026EPS2027E2028ESK海力士000660KSSKHYUS3.434.151.762.141.101.344.966.013.424.152.843.443.524.272.162.621.732.10美光科技MUUS5.452.972.188.735.154.955.903.623.29三星电子005930KS2.571.671.235.533.673.522.361.711.53HBM可比平均3.812.131.506.404.083.773.932.502.18英伟达NVDAUS16.9510.116.4522.3215.6812.9712.408.677.07AMDAMDUS10.808.456.4263.4034.6824.9915.6710.127.69博通AVGOUS15.079.707.0235.0721.2615.7415.5710.087.71AI芯片可比平均14.279.426.6340.2623.8717.9014.559.627.49注：估值数据为VisibleAlpha一致预期，数据截至美东时间2026年7月31日收盘，HBM可比平均计算来源为SK海力士韩股、美光科技、三星电子VisibleAlpha、华泰研究风险提示竞争加剧：HBM3EHBM4领域的加速追赶可能会使市场竞争加剧。如果这些竞争对手在技术上取得重大突破，或能更快、更有效地将产品推向市场，可能会导致海力士的市场份额受到冲击，进而影响公司盈利能力和估值。跨国政策和监管：SK尤其是在中美贸易摩擦、全球供应链中断风险、跨国政策变化等方面。芯片需求不及预期：存储芯片需求规模可能受下游应用端需求影响不及预期，影响存储行业营收及利润。技术路线变更风险：AI芯片与系统架构仍在快速演进，多层级存储体系的形态与节奏取决SK海力士(000660GPU/ASIC设计、互联标准及云厂商部署策略。若算力架构、片上缓存或软件调度（HBMHBFSK海力士(000660SKSK海力士(000660盈利预测利润表现金流量表会计年度(韩元十亿)202420252026E2027E2028E会计年度(韩元十亿)202420252026E2027E2028E营业收入66,19397,147332,970474,132547,022EBITDA37,32060,527264,790372,924406,318销售成本(34,365)(38,456)(59,776)(82,022)(109,366)融资成本853(3,868)(5,689)(7,510)(9,512)毛利润31,82858,691273,194392,110437,656营运资本变动(3,461)(3,378)(80,422)27,416(61,041)销售及管理费用(3,924)(5,019)(13,319)(18,965)(24,616)税费(4,088)(7,518)(43,344)(62,070)(68,099)研发费用(4,436)(6,466)(12,653)(18,491)(25,163)其他(828)7,6105,6897,5109,512其他收入/支出1,309(45)000经营活动现金流29,79653,373141,023338,270277,178财务成本净额(853)3,8685,6897,5109,512CAPEX(20,010)(31,156)(23,024)(20,769)(18,835)应占联营公司利润及亏损(38)(565)(196)(266)(342)其他投资活动2,006(16,899)11,069(6,281)12,206税前利润23,88550,466252,715361,898397,047投资活动现金流(18,005)(48,054)(11,956)(27,050)(6,629)税费开支(4,088)(7,518)(43,344)(62,070)(68,099)债务增加量(7,376)768(41)(41)(41)少数股东损益(8)(29)(139)(200)(219)权益增加量0039,77700归母净利润19,78942,919209,231299,627328,729派发股息(826)(1,681)(10,462)(14,981)(16,436)折旧和摊销(12,582)(13,930)(17,764)(18,537)(18,783)其他融资活动现金流(502)(531)5,6897,5109,512EBITDA37,32060,527264,790372,924406,318融资活动现金流(8,704)(1,445)34,963(7,512)(6,965)EPS(韩元，基本)27,15058,885287,065411,087451,015现金变动3,0873,874164,030303,708263,584年初现金7,58711,20514,924178,954482,662汇率波动影响530(155)000资产负债表年末现金11,20514,924178,954482,662746,245会计年度(韩元十亿)202420252026E2027E2028E存货13,31414,28925,56129,12043,790应收账款和票据13,31218,58585,74562,816108,584现金及现金等价物11,20514,924178,954482,662746,245其他流动资产4,44821,65921,65921,65921,659总流动资产42,27969,458311,920596,258920,279业绩指标固定资产60,15777,50382,65985,02585,131会计年度(倍)202420252026E2027E2028E无形资产4,0194,0493,9683,8933,847增长率(%)其他长期资产13,40025,09725,08724,76324,413营业收入102.0246.76242.7542.3915.37总长期资产77,576106,650111,714113,681113,391毛利润(6,066)84.40365.4843.5311.62总资产119,855176,108423,635709,9391,033,670营业利润(403.58)101.16423.7143.469.37应付账款6,2619,1327,14115,18814,584净利润(317.16)116.89387.5043.209.71短期借款5,8418,7098,6688,6278,586EPS(304.99)116.89387.5043.209.71其他负债12,86419,53819,53819,53819,538盈利能力比率(%)总流动负债24,96537,37935,34743,35342,709毛利润率48.0860.4182.0582.7080.01长期债务1