A股行业中观景气跟踪月报：To ken支出指数回落医药量价改善

行业比较行业比较附录数据：工业企业：量（营收、增加值、价（PPI、利（利润）图2：工业企业：短期供给（存货、长期供给（固定资产投资）111-0.59.9-11.5-16.9117.06.16.014.74.121111102.80.1-6.1-2.3-2.6-4.0-21.5-9.8-11.7-14.1-22.5燃气生产和供应业电力、热力生产和供应业烟草制品业4.65.7-1.6-6.71煤炭开采和洗选业采矿业-16.3-2.1-18.1-4.0-5.1-2.4-5.7-5.900木材加工和木、竹、藤、棕、草制品业水的生产和供应业轻工制造公用事业-9-9.2-3.9-3.41医药制造业医药-116.8-11.9-0.80.1-1.4-2.700非金属矿物制品业造纸和纸制品业矿物加工轻工制造120-7.810.8--6.79.4-116.82.01.2-0.40.1-0.5-0.1-0.8-0.9皮革、毛皮、羽毛及其制品和制鞋业纺织业非金属矿采选业采矿业采矿业-6.3-11.6-9.2-5.6-16.9-9.3111酒、饮料和精制茶制造业家具制造业印刷和记录媒介复制业2.23.81-14.5-5.6-13.0-7.12化学纤维制造业橡胶和塑料制品业基础化工基础化工4.55.4-7-6.5-8.1-8.10文教、工美、体育和娱乐用品制造业食品制造业轻工制造食品饮料-8-8.61专用设备制造业机械设备23.624.72交运设备 铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业8.01通用设备制造业机械设备0.5-1.910.18.20农副食品加工业食品饮料-5.9-4-6.5-5.58.60化学原料和化学制品制造业金属制品业基础化工机械设备-2.5-2.36.910.82仪器仪表制造业仪器仪表-5.7-7.612.712.40废弃资源综合利用业其他-1.66.7-4.96.512.510.214.014.011黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业矿物加工TMT设备15.80石油和天然气开采业采矿业1.5-2.71.2-18.317.811电气机械和器材制造业汽车制造业电力设备交运设备-5.6-9.921.2-5.7-4.226.320.314.821424.0有色金属矿采选业石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业金属制品、机械和设备修理业-2.3-4.132.728.90有色金属冶炼和压延加工业矿物加工6.2-0.4-0.15.9-1.2-2.70采矿业制造业工业工业工业0.1-1第二产业：工业2026-052026-062026-052026-06环比改善指标数量固定资产投资(不含农户)完成额:累计同比:%规模以上工业企业:产成品存货:同比:%相对景气判断板块/大类行业/细分行业行业比较进口29%-2.147.50 48.8050.1049.8045.6047.30主要原材料购进价格52%-1.053.2054.2060.5063.7063.9054.80行业比较进口29%-2.147.50 48.8050.1049.8045.6047.30主要原材料购进价格52%-1.053.2054.2060.5063.7063.9054.8056.10量价库存 出厂价格29%-0.447.8048.2051.9055.1055.4050.6050.60采购量20%-2.049.4051.4049.8051.1050.9048.2048.70原材料库存63%-0.148.3048.4048.6049.3047.7047.5047.40产成品库存80%0.948.6047.7049.3047.5046.7045.8048.60从业人员62%0.549.0048.5048.6048.8048.6048.0048.10供应商配送时间21%-0.449.5049.9049.2049.5049.5049.1050.10生产经营活动预期31%-0.254.1054.3053.9054.5053.4053.2052.60大型企业5%-1.249.5050.7051.1050.2051.6051.5050.30企业类型 中型企业49%-0.849.7050.5048.6050.5049.0047.5048.70小型企业30%-0.847.4048.2048.5050.1049.3044.8047.40装备制造业59%-1.151.4052.5052.1051.8051.5049.8050.10行业 高技术制造业78%-0.253.3053.5052.9052.2052.1051.5052.00基础原材料行业8%-0.147.0047.1047.1047.9048.9047.8047.90消费品行业2%-2.447.8050.2049.7050.7050.8048.8048.30非制造业PMI%2010年来分位数最新较上月环比变化pct2026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-01行业服务业5%-1.149.3050.4050.3049.6050.2049.7049.50商务活动4%-1.249.0050.2050.1049.4050.1049.5049.40制造业PMI%2010年来分位数最新较上月环比变化pct2026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-01整体8%-1.149.2050.3050.0050.3050.4049.0049.30生产10%-1.549.9051.4051.2051.5051.4049.6050.60新订单4%-2.748.5051.2049.9050.6051.6048.6049.20订单在手订单59%-1.345.8047.1046.8046.2047.1044.0045.10新出口订单62%-0.549.6050.1048.6050.3049.1045.0047.80新订单5%-3.644.4048.0045.0044.3045.0045.2046.10订单在手订单16%-0.943.3044.2043.8042.4043.2042.3042.50新出口订单19%-0.947.0047.9048.1047.3048.8044.7046.90投入品价格13%0.049.7049.7052.2051.7052.3050.9050.00量价库存销售价格15%-0.547.9048.4048.8048.1049.9048.8048.80存货4%-0.245.1045.3045.1045.3043.5045.4044.80从业人员5%-0.445.4045.8045.6045.5045.2046.0046.10供应商配送时间18%-0.450.9051.3051.2050.9051.5050.5051.10业务活动预期7%0.155.4055.3054.8054.7054.2055.0056.00建筑业2% -2.047.0049.0048.80 48.00 49.3048.2048.80持续好于内需，但新能源车内销降幅继续收窄；1-6月文体用品零售额增速底部企稳，日用品和金银珠宝增速放缓至0附近；白酒和猪肉价格底部企稳，乳品和牛羊肉均价同比保持正增长，美国FDA新药获批量同比降幅进一步收窄

行业比较；注：价格采用年初以来均价同比，环比改善指相比上个月同比增速加快或降幅收窄，下同。行业比较5.0%4.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%

消费者信心指数社零总额社零：商品零售额社零：除汽车以外的消费品零售额10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%

限额以上：零售总额80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%

40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0% 乘用车出口量 乘用车内销量

新能源车出口量 新能源车内销量

限额以上：家电和音像器材零售额40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%

25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%

25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0% 空调内销量 空调出口量

冰箱内销量 冰箱出口量

洗衣机内销量 洗衣机出口量；注：如无特别说明，报告中折线图均为量、价或销售额的同比增速，下同。-7月均10%以上60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%

30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%

20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%棉花 白鹅绒 灰鹅绒

乙二醇(MEG) 精对苯二甲酸聚酯切片涤纶长丝DTY 涤纶长丝POY15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%

15.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0% 涤纶短纤 粘胶短纤 腈纶短纤

纱线 干茧 生丝

限额以上：服装零售额行业比较行业比较-6月文体用品零售额增速底部企稳，日用品和金银珠宝增速放缓至0附近，线下餐饮社零增速放缓至近两年低位，电影票房收入和观影人次降幅收窄，快递反内卷下单价同比继续上涨

A新药获批量增速降幅进一步收窄16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%

0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%-3.0%-3.5%

1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%-3.0% 限额以上：粮油食品饮料烟酒零售额

白酒批发价格总指数

牛奶零售价 酸奶零售价20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%

5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%

20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0% 牛肉价格 羊肉价格

白条鸡价格 毛鸭价格

猪肉价格8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%

40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%-50.0%

限额以上：中西药品零售额

FDA:

FDA:新药上市获批数 FDA:新药补充获批数行业比较行业比较行业比较行业比较CPI】6CI%50.2C大幅回落，消费电子产品涨价继续推升通信工具CPI装机增速高基数下负增；叉车挖机和重卡销量均保持两位数增长机增速高基数下负增60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%-60.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06

60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%-60.0%-80.0%

026-0426-06-06

200.0%150.0%100行业比较行业比较电7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%

70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06

70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06新造船价格

新接船舶订单量

工业机器人产量50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06

70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06

50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06叉车内销量 叉车外销量挖掘机内销量 挖掘机出口量重卡销量行业比较行业比较0%累计增速10%10%5%%42.0%22.8%32.1%22.8%36.0%21.2%27.8%21.3%35.0%19.5%22.6%19.4%38.4%19.9%18.3%20.5%33.5%21.2%13.3%20.0%39.5%24.1%26.4%29.4%541%56.5%4.8%5.2%5.9%1.5%25.1%45.8%22.6%43.3%32.5%43.6%34.7%42.3%34.5%35.0%44.8%44.6%4.5%11.3%13.4%12.8%12.3%61%43.9%38.6%25.1%25.0%24.5%22.0%26.5%50%55月月国产游戏审批数量:累计中国游戏市场销售收入:累计游戏8.9%1.1%5.0%5.6%5.3%6.6%95%70.0%-7.4%-7.9%-7.1%-10.1%-9.7%%50434.5%42.8%43.9%43.9%46.6%100%668.5%43.3%42.7%34.3%38.8%33.6%34.6%91%595%6%5565.9%-0.1%3.8%3.7%4.9%5.8%91%610.8%32%45.2%31.0%27.3%20.2%14.6%12.9%86%9.1%2.6%2.5%0.8%-0.5%-1.7%%5033191.9%151.6%160.9%171.0%180.7%181.6%95%9220.5%216.7%217.0%100%10208.7%190.0%193.4%218.7%253.0%236.3%275.7%244.7%290.1%100%1017.9%10.1%11.3%14.4%17.6%15.0%-0.6%-4.9%-1.0%3.3%5.3%1.4%18%322.9%15.5%16.4%16.8%19.7%22.2%95%786%95%555%4777%45510.4%4.4%10.8%13.9%18.0%20.8%6-10.6%-15.9%-16.1%-15.7%-14.3%-12.3%27%6月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月发光二极管IC制造印刷电路板原料印刷电路板制造被动元件连接器光学动态随机存储器动态随机存储器芯片DRAM模组触摸屏面板主板PCPC品牌PC代工手机电池电子台股营收28.0%38.9%-0.9%-9.1%7-15.5%-14.3%-11.6%-22.6%-5.5%0.0%-3.1%-2.6%38%36%76.2%3.6%2.7%4.0%6.5%4420.6%34.3%35.5%36.4%34.5%91%752.4%59.9%64.8%69.9%100%1052.0%47.0%56.2%60.9%76.7%91.4%103.9%105.6%100%11-10.2%-9.7%-9.6%-9.3%-9.1%-8.8%-8.1%24%569.2%78.5%109.5%149.3%186.2%235.7%257.4%100%111115.1%1171.8% 1153.8%76%8498.5%548.5%618.0%673.9%1149.4%699.1%1125.5%703.8%1093.4%716.2%1066.3%100%11日月日月月月月月DRAM价格DXI指数NANDFlash价格费城半导体指数集成电路产量光电子器件产量智能手机出货量智能手机上市新机型量电子17.6%20.0%16.8%13.1%12.9%25%313.8%13.5%17.6%22.2%23.5%25.3%82%10-2.2%3.7%-12.6%-9.4%-4.0%1.4%5%511.2%59%620.4%17.7%42.1%2.8%22.5%10.7%12.6%18.6%12.0%27.0%95%6-1.6%-1.7%-0.7%-1.8%4-0.1%-0.3%-0.8%0%6月月月月月月月电信业务总量电信业务收入光模块出口金额光模块出口数量光模块出口均价通讯器材零售额通信2026/7/312026/6/302026/5/312026/4/302026/3/312026/2/282026/1/31近两年趋势近两年分位数近一年环比改善月数频率指标领域0%累计增速

行业比较行业比较7月低价开源大模型份额提升冲击下，entoken支出指数 费城半导体指数(右轴)140120100806040200202Wind、、申万宏源研究-6动元件、存储、半导体材料、PC代工等同比加速向上

行业比较行业比较&璃、纯碱等建材价格同比降幅收窄，TDI/MDI和聚醚价格同比两位数增长净息差:商业银行 净息差:大型商业银行 净息差:股份制商业银行净息差:城市商业银行 净息差:农村商业银行

不良贷款比例:商业银行 不良贷款比例:大型商业银不良贷款比例:股份制商业银行不良贷款比例:城市商业银不良贷款比例:农村商业银行保费收入 保费-财产险收入 保费-寿险收保费-人身险收入 保费-健康险收入沪深两市日均成交额:累计 股票市场筹资额:累计行业比较行业比较0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%-10.0%-12.0%

0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%

0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%-35.0%一线城市二手房挂牌价 二线城市二手房挂牌三线城市二手房挂牌价地产开发投资完成额 商品房销售面积20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%

水泥价格 混凝土价格

0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%-35.0%-40.0%-45.0%行业比较行业比较40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%位；高油价引发通胀预期和实际利率上行，贵金属价格同比继续回落，工业金属价格相对具有韧性；大宗用纸价格同比涨幅扩大行业比较行业比较

10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%-35.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%铁矿石铁矿石钢材钢材

】铁矿石和能源成本抬升，钢材均价同比跌幅趋势收窄】铁矿石和能源成本抬升，钢材均价同比跌幅趋势收窄烟煤烟煤

工业萘工业萘液化天然气LNG液化天然气LNG

30.0%20.0%10.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%2024-082024-102024-12原油2025-02原油2025-042025-06汽油2025-08汽油2025-102025-122026-022026-042026-0630.0%25.0%20.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%废钢 钢坯废钢 钢坯

火电发电量火电发电量水电发电量水电发电量

40.0%30.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%-50.0%焦煤焦煤焦炭焦炭

50.0%40.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%液化石油气LPG2024-08液化石油气LPG2024-102024-122025-022025-042025-06丁烷2025-08丁烷2025-102025-12丙烷2026-02丙烷2026-042026-0615.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%-10.0%-12.0%-14.0%-16.0%-18.0%普通中板普通中板缝钢管缝钢管角钢角钢

风电发电量风电发电量太阳能发电量太阳能发电量

动力煤动力煤

2024-062024-082024-102024-12石蜡2025-02石蜡2025-042025-06沥青2025-08沥青2025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06较较】地缘局势反复，-7%以上，石化链价格涨幅也处于高位第16页共23有韧性

50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%2024-062024-082024-102024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-062024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06黄金 银 铜 铝 氧化铝 铅 锌

80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-062024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06

锑 稀土

锡 镁锭】板纸和集运价格同比涨幅扩大15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%

25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%

10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%

200.0%150.0%10行业比较行业比较行业比较8%行业比较%11.7%12.5%11.7%12.5%12.8%8.7%1.4%0.2%1.2%0.5%-0.9%-1.5%-2.1%-2.4%-5.3%-5.0%-5.8%-7.6%-7.3%-7.3%-8.9%-9.7%-10.3%-10.4%-10.4%-10.5%-10.5%-10.6%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)】7月油价反弹，石油化工、煤化工、橡胶绝大多数品类均价同比涨幅来到近两年高位60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06

30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%

30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-062024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06纯苯 甲苯 苯乙烯乙二醇 环氧丙烷40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%

20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06

30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06丙烯酸 丙烯酸丁酯2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06正丁醇 丙烯腈 丁酮40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%

4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%-10.0%

40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%2024-062024-082024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06天然橡胶 顺丁橡胶 丁苯橡胶

轿车轮胎经销商价格指数2024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-062024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-042026-06行业比较行业比较5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%-35.0%-40.0%-45.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%-35.0%硫磺硫磺硫酸硫酸

尿素尿素液氨液氨合成氨合成氨

纯碱】硫磺硫酸价格同比翻倍，磷肥、复合肥价格同比两位数上涨纯碱】硫磺硫酸价格同比翻倍，磷肥、复合肥价格同比两位数上涨电石电石聚氯乙烯(PVC)聚氯乙烯(PVC)

2024-062024-082024-10LDPE(薄膜LDPE(薄膜)2025-022025-042025-062025-08甲醛2025-10甲醛2025-122026-022026-042026-0630.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%含氯复合肥含氯复合肥含硫复合肥含硫复合肥

磷酸一铵磷酸一铵磷酸二铵磷酸二铵

氢氟酸氢氟酸二氯甲烷二氯甲烷三氯甲烷三氯甲烷

2024-06环氧树脂2024-08环氧树脂2024-102024-12环氧氯丙烷2025-02环氧氯丙烷2025-042025-062025-08不饱和树脂(191#)不饱和树脂(191#)2025-122026-022026-042026-0610.0%5.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%-35.0%硫酸钾硫酸钾氯化钾氯化钾

30.0%20.0%10.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%钛白粉钛白粉海绵钛海绵钛

2024-06双酚