高盛-中国策略：AI改写格局：回调、轮动与分散化（摘要）-China strategy AI changes the game-20260809

2026年8月9日|11:16PMHKTAI改写格局：回调、轮动与分散化(摘要)我们定义的中国AI股票范畴内的AI硬科技股标的上半年平均大涨33%之后，伴随着全球AI交易的急剧逆转，这些股票自6月峰值大幅回调，而科创50指数、创业板和中证1000指数自近期高点的回调幅度超过了20%。在本期AI改写格局系列报告中，我们提出了10个有关市场定价、风险偏好、资金流向、仓位、政策和基本面的指标/信核心观点：在AI硬科技交易中，此前相当一部分的投机性头寸、估值溢价、杠杆和持仓集中度在最近的回撤中已有所消化，但我们认为，短期内市场波应继续关注中国AI生态系统内部及以外与之相关度低的资产。实现分散化和个股机会的主要策略和投资建议包括：a)为部分互联网/软科技港股逐步建仓；b)政策受益企业，如高盛十五五投资组合以及国内vs.出口导向型AI企业；c)盈利预测上调的超卖非科技股；d)IPO市场的超额收益机会和现金回报。刘劲津,CFA+852-2978-1224|kinger.lau@慕天辉,CFA+65-6889-1199|timothy.moe@付思,Ph.D.+852-2978-0200|si.fu@王主丰,CFA+852-2978-2446|kevin.wang@投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息/research/hedge.html。WhereareweintheAI(HardTech)correctioncycle?10indicators/signalswearewatching1)ReturndispersionandfactorrotationAsdetailedinourrecentreports(Asia,China),inter-andintra-returndivergenceacrossregionalmarkets,sectors,andthemessurgedtounprecedentedlevelsin1H26.InChina,theprinciplefactordrivingthespreadswastheAIHardvsSoftTechdivide,asexemplifiedbythe100%+relativereturngapofSTAR50overHSTECHinthefirst6monthsoftheyear,matchingthepeaksinearly2021whendispersionskyrocketedduringtheCovid-relatedstimulusrally.Generally,dispersiontendstorisewhenmarketbetaandinvestors’riskappetiteimproves,withSize(small)andGrowth(high)oftenleadinginabullcycle.However,theoutperformanceofthesepro-cyclicalstyleshascorrectedsharplyalongsidetheunwindoftheAIHardwaretradegloballyinthepastmonth,andhasnowreturnedtothelong-termaveragesforSoftTech(vs.HardTech)andevenatfairlyextremelevelsforMomentumandSize,suggestingtousthatthevelocityofthedrawdownandstyle/factorrotationshouldstarttomoderatefromapricemomentumperspective.图表1:IndexeswithhigherAIHardwareexposuressignificantlyoutperformedin1HIndexIndexExposuretoAITech&1H26ReturnWeight100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%Return70%60%50%40%30%20%0%-10%-20%AIHardware&Equip6%1H26Return-RHSAISoftware资料来源：FactSet,MSCI,HSI,CSI,高盛全球投资研究部图表2:Prioroutperformershavegivenbackasignifcantportionoftheir1HgainssinceJulyvs.2H-to-datereturnsNote:DarkBluerepresentsUSbenchmarkindices;MediumbluerepresentsMSCIIndices;LightBluerepresentsmajorAshareindices1H26performance-30%0%30%60%90%120%1Hreturns10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%资料来源：FactSet,MSCI,HSI,CSI,高盛全球投资研究部2026年8月9日22026年8月9日3图表3:AsharpreversaloftheMomentum,HardTech,andSizefactorsinthepastmonthJul-14Jul-17Jul-14Jul-17Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23Jul-24Jul-25Jul-266mRollingRelativeReturnSTAR50vsHSTECHHardwarevsSoftware29%(1.0s.d.)25%(1.1s.d.)40%20%-20%-40%资料来源：Factset,MSCI,高盛全球投资研究部图表4:Momentum,Size,andGrowthhaveseendeepercorrectionsinthepastfewweeksJul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23Jul-24Jul-25Jul-26Jul-276mRollingRelativeReturnGrowthvsValueCSI2000vsCSI30045%-15%-30%-45%(-0.4s.d.)(-0.8s.d.)(-1.4s.d.)(-2.4s.d.)MomentumEarningsRevision资料来源：Factset,MSCI,高盛全球投资研究部2026年8月9日42)MarketbreadthandconcentrationConcentrationriskmanifestsinmanyfacetsintheequityuniverse,andwefocusonmarketcap/return,volume,andfactorconcentrationforthepurposeofthisstudy.Onreturns,90%ofSTAR50returnsytdarecontributedbytop-10outperformers,vs.23%inearly2021and46%forChiNextinmid-2015.TheconcentrationofreturnsisalsoreflectedbytherisingmarketcaprepresentationbyHardTechequitiesinA-sharebenchmarks,mostnotablyintheChiNextandtheSTARuniverses.Similarly,volumeconcentrationhasrisentorecent-yearhighs,withthetechsector,ChiNext,andSTAR50representing26%,14%,and6%oftotalcashturnoverintheA-sharemarket.Pairwisecorrelation(averagecorrelationofallstockpairs),anindicatormeasuringtowhatextentthemarketistradingmacroforces(highcorrelation)oridiosyncraticmicrothemes(lowcorrelation),showsthatthelatter,mostlikelyAIandTech,remainsthedominantthemeamonginvestorsacrosstheChinaequityuniverse.图表5:ReturnconcentrationinthelatestcorrectionepisodesiscomparabletothatinpreviousmajormarketdownturnsReturndecompositionReturndecomposition(6monthspriortopeak)-20%Chinext2015100%80%60%40%20%0%Top10outperformersOtherstocksIndexreturnSTAR502026STAR502021资料来源：Factset,万得,高盛全球投资研究部图表7:TurnovercontributionstayselevatedforA-shareHardTechandsmall/midcapsJul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20JulJul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23Jul-24Jul-25Jul-261maveragedailyturnoverrepresentationSTAR50ChinextHardTechCSI1000Note:HardTechcomprisesallAI-relatedHardTechstockswithintheMSCIChinauniverse.ItsturnovercontributioniscalculatedrelativetototalA+Hshareturnover,whereasturnovercontributionsforallotherindicesarebasedontotalA-shareturnover.25.9%(2.8s.d.)19.6%(0.1s.d.)13.2%(2.4s.d.)6.1%(3.7s.d.)35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%资料来源：万得,FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部图表6:Returncontribution/concentrationhasdroppedsignificantlyinHK,butremainshighinAsharesJan-21MktcaprepresentationNote:HardTechistakenfromMSCIChinaIndexconstituentsbasedonitsGICSsectorclassification;WeuseAllChinaStocksexceptUS-listedastheuniverse资料来源：万得,Factset,高盛全球投资研究部图表8:Stockreturncorrelationsarestillatrecent-yearlows,implyingthatAIremainsthedominantdrivingforceofequityreturnsJan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26AveragepairwisecorrelationofMSCIChinaconstituents(-1.1s.d.)60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(26-weekrolling)资料来源：MSCI,FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部2026年8月9日53)EquitymultiplesandvaluationsValuationsrecentlyclimbedtolocalhighsforA-share(hard)techcompanies,withChiNexttradingat26xfP/Eonacap-weightbasisandSTAR50commanding50xfP/EatthemedianstocklevelattheirrespectivepeaksinJune.Thede-ratingsincethenhaspushedtheequitymultiplesofA-shareHardTechcompaniesdowntoorbelowtheirlong-termaverages,especiallyonaPEGbasiswhentheirgrowthpotentialistakenintoaccount.Thatsaid,valuationsarearguablyrichforSTAR50namesonanabsolutescale,andA-sharenamesacrossChineseAIecosystemhaveclosedtheirvaluation(discount)gapsvis-a-vistheirglobalpeerspostthelatestglobalAIselloff,implyingtousthatvaluationriskshavelessened,butarefarfromentirelydiscounted/removed.图表9:HeadlineindexvaluationsforA-shareTechcompanieshavenormalizedJan-14Jan-15Jan-14Jan-15Jan-17Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-2612mfPE(x)CSI300CSI300Median41.340(0.2s.d.)353022.925(-1.3s.d.)19.715(-1.2s.d.)13.610(0.5s.d.)Note:Basedonlatestconstituents50CSI100045ChiNextMedianSTAR50Median5资料来源：FactSet,I/B/E/S,CSI,高盛全球投资研究部图表10:ForwardPEGratiosareatorbelowmid-rangedlevels12m12mfPEG(x)CSI300CSI1000ChiNextSTAR50(0.1s.d.)(-0.5s.d.)(-0.5s.d.)(-1.1s.d.)Note:BasedonlatestconstituentsJan-14Jan-15Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26资料来源：万得,Factset,高盛全球投资研究部图表11:ValuationdiscountsofChineseAIproxieshavenarrowedvis-a-vistheirglobalpeersValuations-ChinaAIvsWorldex-ChinaAI2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026atapremiumNote:12mfP/EusedforPower,Infrastructure,Semiconductors,PhysicalAIandAI+;12mfP/SusedforAIModelSemiconductorsPhysicalAI60%40%20%-20%-40%-60%AIUniverseInfrastructureAI+资料来源：FactSet,IBES,高盛全球投资研究部2026年8月9日64)LeverageinthestockmarketMarginfinancingbalanceremainsthemosttransparentandtimelyproxyforleveredexposuresinAsharesasleveragedETFs(orleveragedfundproducts)arenotallowedintheonshoreequitymarket.Aggregatemarginbalanceanditsrepresentationinfree-floatmarketcaphavebothretreatedfromtheirall-timehighs(nowtoRmb2.6tnand5.5%offree-floatmarketcap,downfromRmb3tnand6.0%),butstillabovetheirhistoricalnorms,suggestingthatthede-leveragingcycle,ifitcontinues,couldbestillatitsearlystagescomparedtotheonesinKoreaandTaiwan.However,theeffectivesystem-wideleverageatpresent,encompassinguncollateralizedconsumerloans,offshore-listedleveragedETFs,andotherequity-linkedstructuredproducts(e.g.snowballderivatives)ofwhichdataisnotwellpopulated,shouldbemeaningfullylowerthanthepeakin2015whenoff-balance-sheetborrowingwasprevalentamongindividualinvestors.OneareaofconcernistheconcentrationofleverageinAIHardTech,wheretop-10percentileofstockscurrentlymakeupof30%ofthetotaloutstandingmarginbalance,thehighestever.图表12:MarginleveragerequirementscomparisontableStockmargintradingMarketA-sharesUnderlyingsN/ALeverage(onlocalexchanges)N/AMinimumInitialMarginRequirement(inEquitytoTotalMarketratio^)50%(equivalentto100%CollateralRatio^^,raisedfrom80%inJanuary2026,applyingonlytonewlyopenedmargincontracts);ETFsalsoeligmargintradingMaxLeverage2.0xMaintenanceEquity%~23%(impliedfrom130%MaintenanceCollateralGracePeriodaddatighter"instantliquidationline"at110%or115%CollateralRatioLiquidationMechanismForcedliquidationatT+2ifIftheratioisnotrestoredtoHongKongstocks(currentlyexpandingtonondual-listedHKstocks)Within+/-2.0xallowedsinceAug2026)Noregulatoryrequirements;Inpracticevaringbystock(20%-60%;typically30%forliquidbluechips)3.3xVaringbystock/broker(typically15%forliquidBrokerdiscretionBrokerdiscretionTaiwanKoreaJapanWithin+/-2.0x40%(Listedstocks)2.5x~23%(impliedfrom130%MaintenanceCollateralT+2ForcedliquidationatthemarketopenonT+3launchedMay2026)Within+/-2.0x^^^40%(Baserate;brokeragesdynamicallyadjustbasedonstockliquidityandvolatility)2.5x~29%(impliedfrom140%MaintenanceCollateralT+1midnightForcedliquidationatthemarketopenonT+2Within+/-2.0x30%(withaminimumaccountequityrequirementofJPY300,000)3.3x20%(^EquitytoTotalMarketValueRatio;brokerssetinternallimitsat25%or30%)T+1ForcedliquidationatthemarketopenonT+2Note:ΛEquitytoTotalMarketvalueRatio=^^CollateralRatio=;^^^FSCisseekingemergencypowerstolowerto1.5xorsuspendduringperiods ofhighvolatility. 资料来源：中国证监会,TWSE,HKEX,KRX,JPX,高盛全球投资研究部2026年8月9日7图表13:MarginfinancingbalancehasremainedstableinAshareswhileKoreaandTaiwanhaveexperiencedsharp2021argnaanceLeveragesasoreeoatap4%Taiwan(+LeveragedETF)Japan8%0.7%(-0.1s.d.)0%4%aresensitivetothetreatmentofrestrictedholdings资料来源：TEJ,TWSE,JPX,万得,彭博,KoreaFinancialInvestmentAssociation,高盛全球投资研究部图表14:LeverageconcentrationinA-shareTechstayselevated3Q143Q143Q203Q213Q22 3Q233Q243Q253QtdMargintradingbalanceasofallA-sharesTop10%^ITstocksTop10%^(allsectors)ChiNextBoardSTARBoard54%(1.5s.d.)Note:basedonperiodicaverageofmargintradingbalance;^bothbasedontop10%30%bymargintradingbalance(1.7s.d.)23%(2.1s.d.)14%(2.8s.d.)60%50%40%30%20%0%2026年8月9日85)Retailinvestors’sentimentIn2025,weintroducedabarometertomeasuretheriskappetiteofretailinvestorswhoaccountfor70%ofaveragedailyturnoverinAsharesdespitethegradualriseofinstitutionalsponsorshipledbydomesticmutual,pension,andinsurancefunds.Besidesmarginfinancingstatistics,thebarometersumsup11otherhigh-frequencyindicatorssuchasnewinvestoraccounts,IPOsubscriptionstatistics,andturnovervelocityacrossthespeculativelength,equityallocation,tradingpropensitycategoriestoforgeamorecompletepictureonlocalinvestorsentiment.Ourbarometercurrentlystandsat0s.d.relativetothepast1-yearrange,correctingfrom~1s.d.fromamonthago,pointingtoneutraltosomewhatsubduedriskappetiteamongA-shareindividualinvestors.图表15:A-shareretailsentimenthasquicklydeterioratedinthepastmonthJun-20Jun-21Jun-22Jun-23Jun-24Jun-25Jun-26HigherretailsentimentLowerretailsentiment6,0005,5005,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,000ChinaA-sharesretailsentimentproxyCSI300Level[RHS]2.52.0-0.5-1.0资料来源：万得,CSF,SSE,SZSE,SIPF,ICBC,高盛全球投资研究部图表16:OurChinaA-shareretailsentimentproxycomprises13inputsthatspanacross4keycategoriesInputstoChinaA-sharesRetailSentimentProxyUnitFrequencySinceSourceCurrentvaluePast1Yz-scoreSpeculativelengthMargintradingbalanceD2012CSF26050.0Margintradingbalanceas%ofA-sharesFFmktcap%D2014CSF5.50.3#oflimitupasoftotallistedA-shares%D2012StockExchanges0.1EquityallocationSmall&midcapETFflowsD2023Wind2.8ThematicETFflowsD2023Wind0.1Newdepositsinpast3M:non-bankfinvs.householdsM2015PBoC2720Newequitymutualfundissued#sharesmnD2012Wind-1.0TradingTotalturnoverD2012StockExchanges26620.4TurnovervelocityxD2012StockExchanges0.1Small&midorderflowsW;D2015Wind-5926-2.8IPOretailsubscriptionratioxD2012Wind45780.2PropensityNewaccountopening#mnM2012SSE2.7-0.4Onlinesearchindex#D2012Baidu-1.0-0.6资料来源：万得,CSF,SSE,SZSE,ICBC,高盛全球投资研究部2026年8月9日96)Institutionalinvestors’positioningDomesticmutualfundindustryhasamassedclosetoRmb40tnofAUM,ofwhichRmb7tnisallocatedtoequities,accountingfor6.6%/15%ofthetotaloutstanding/free-floatmarketcap.Cashratiosforequitymutualfundshaveedgedhigheramidthemarketgyration,buttheirallocationstoandpositioning(i.e.over-orunderweight)inTechequities(includingSemiconductors,HardwareandSoftwarecompaniesthatareexposedtotheAItheme)stillhoverathistoricalpeaklevels.Systematicinvestorsorstrategies,whichhavegrownsignificantlyinsizeandturnoverrepresentationinAsharesinthepastfewyears,mayhavegonethroughadeeperde-leveragingorrisk-reductionprocessasreflectedbythefallingcashtradingandfundingspreadsinthesmall-mid-capcohort,bothofwhicharecommonly-followedproxiesforquantfunds’activitylevelsinAshares.图表17:Domesticequitymutualfundmanagershavecutequityrisksmoderately...Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-2Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26Domesticequity-focusedfunds'cashratio9%AsofAug6,2026图表18:...butarestillheavilyexposedtoTechequitiesintheirportfoliosJan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-2Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26DomesticmutualfundpositoningOW/UWinIT(vsAllAIndexwgt)AllocationinIT(as%ofAUM)50%40%30%20%0%-10%(LatestholdingsasofJun30,andpricesasofAug6)43%2026年8月9日10图表19:ActivitylevelofquantstrategiesinAsharesseemstohaveslowedrecentlyJan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22JuJan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26CSI1000andCSI2000turnoveras%oftotalmarketturnoverCSI1000outperformancefundingspread-RHS(0.2sd)35%(.0.2sd)90060030055%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%2026年8月9日117)CorporateactionsfromlistedcompaniesCorporateactionsareoftenaleadingindicatorofequityreturns.Assuch,wegaugetheriskoffurthermarketcorrectionvia3corporateactionchannels—buybacks,tradingwarnings,andinsiderselling/buying.First,stockrepurchaseshavereachedmulti-yearhighsin3Q26(quarterlized),up35%and59%yoyinannouncedbuybackdealsandbuybackamount(withthetreasurysharesbeingcanceledinsomecases),reflectinghighmanagementconfidenceinthecompany’sintrinsicvalue.Second,excessivepricemovementandabnormaltradingwarningsfromlistedcompaniesalsosurgedinJunebeforethecorrection,buthasfallensubstantiallysincethen.Lastly,sellingfromsignificantshareholdersandcompanyexecutivesacrossalllistedA-sharecompanieshasreturnedtomorebalancedlevels,improvingfromnetsellingterritoryforthemostpartin1H26.图表20:Sharebuybacksreachedrecent-yearhighsin3Q262Q214Q212Q224Q222Q234Q232Q244Q242Q254Q25 (RMBbn)Note:3Q26quarterlizedfromQTDdataasofAug5;Basedonbuybackexecutionannouncements;HK-listednamesbuybackaretrackedbyHKExwebsiteandrepurchasesofADRsmaynotcaptured.A+Haggregateamountz-score[RHS]400图表21:ExcessivepriceandtradingriskwarningsfromlistedcompaniessurgedbeforethecorrectionbuthavefallensignificantlysincethenJan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25JulJan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26A-sharesannouncingtradingriskwarning^#ofcompaniesAggregatemktcap(RHS)Note:Theincludedcategoriesencompassvoluntarycorporateresponsestospeculationandrumorclarifications,whichmaybeassociatedwithmandatorydisclosurestriggeredbytradinganomalies(suchasextremepricemovements).MandatorydisclosuresregardingdelistingandregulatoryrisksofST(Rmbtn)4.02.52.0040图表22:NetequitysellingfrommajorshareholdersandexecutiveshasreturnedtomorebalancedterritoryJan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20JanJan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26Weeklyinsidertransaction*(Rmbbn)30200-10-20-30-40-50Note:*includesbuying/sellingofmajorshareholders(companiesorindividuals),companyexecutivesandtheirrelatives.AsofJul30,2026BuySellNetbuy2026年8月9日128)PolicyrhetoricandstanceontheequitymarketAbruptpolicytighteningmeasureswereoftenakeyreasonformarketreversalinpreviousChinaequitybullruns,notablytheleverageunwindsell-offin2015andtheregulatorytighteningtowardstheprivatesectorinlate2020.Bythesametoken,policyactionsandsignals,andpolicymakers’attitude/languagetowardstheequitymarkethavetriggeredmanypowerfulequityralliesinhistory,includingthe9/24“policypivot”2yearsago.Similartomanyofourtext-basedanalyticaltools,wedissectandinterpretpolicystatementsandregulators’publicannouncementssystematicallyusingourlarge-language-model(LLM),whichenablesustoquantifypolicyriskandsupportinbothfrequencyandmagnitudeterms.Thisexerciseleadsustobelievethatpolicymakers’perceivedmarketoverheatingandtheresultingpolicytighteningrisksindeedreachedacyclepeakin1Q26buthavesincefallenbacktoamoreneutralrange.图表23:Equitymarketpolicystanceseemstobetightenedinrecentmonths]]6,0005,5005,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,000210-1-2-0.1Jul-14Jul-15Jul-Jul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23Jul-24Jul-25Jul-26资料来源：中国证监会,SSE,SZSE,高盛全球投资研究部2026年8月9日139)TheChineseNationalteamEstablishedintheaftermathofthe2015marketfall,thebroadly-definedChineseNationalTeamcurrentlyholdsaroundRmb5tnworthofA-shareequitiesonourestimate,mostlyinsingle-stockholdings,equivalentto5%ofthetotaloutstandinglistedA-sharemarketcap.Historically,ithasactedasacounter-cyclicalstabilizertoonshoreequities,effectivelyunderwritingadownsideputtoinvestorswhenthemarketisunderstress.Butwhenequityreturnsarestrongandvaluationsaredeemedaslesscompelling,theNationalTeamhasshownnohesitationofsellingintostrengthandtakingprofit.PerourNationalTeamtracker,weestimatethatithasnetboughtmorethanRmb140bnworthofA-shareequities,includingmodestbuyingofSTAR50ETFs,inthepast3weeks,aftersellingaboutRmb1.5tnintheprior6months.Importantly,thescaleofNationalTeam’sbuyinghashistoricallybeenwellcorrelatedwithsubsequentmarketreturns,withlarge-scaleintervention(>1.5s.d.inweeklynetpurchases)typicallymarkingamedium-termbottomforthebroadermarket.图表24:TheNationalTeamhasturnedintoanetbuyerofA-shareequitiesinrecentweeksJun-15Jun-15Jun-16Jun-17Jun-18Jun-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24Jun-25Dec-25Jun-26Z-scoreNationalTeambuying/selling6Ashares(quarterly)ETFs(weekly)-RHS420-4图表25:Empirically,large(>1.5s.d.)NTbuyingtendedtocorrelatewithdecentmarketreturnsintheensuingmonthsCSI300CSI300indexperformancearoundlargeNTbuying^1st-3rdquartileranMedian^include30weekswithNationalTeambuyingmorethan1.5s.d.abovehistoricalaverage2026年8月9日1410)CapexandearningsrevisionsFundamentally,theAIcapexboomgloballyisthefuelbehindtheoutsizedgainsofAI-relatedstocksinChinaandabroad—onGSestimates,totalAIexpendituresfrom9majorUSandChinesehyperscalers/CSPscouldtopUS$900bnthisyearandUS$1.3tnnext,1.7%and2.3%ofthecombinedUSandChinaGDP.Theoutlayshaveusheredinpowerfulrevenueandearningsi