德银-地平线车载芯片市场供需格局观察 May autonomous-driving SoC up 35% YoY front camera chip down 11% YoY-2026-08

DeutscheBank

Research

Rating

Buy

Asia

China

Consumer

Autos&AutoTechnology

Company

HorizonRobotics

ReutersBloomberg

9660.HK9660HK

Date

6July2026

RatingBuy

Price

target(HKD)

9.40

Price

at3Jul26

4.68

52-weekrange10.81-3.61

Valuation&Risks

Mayautonomous-drivingSoCup35%YoY;frontcamerachipdown11%YoY

BinWang

ResearchAnalyst

Estimatedhigh-levelautonomous-drivingsystems(Level2+/Level3)penetrationreaches47.3%inMay2026

AccordingtostatisticsfromNETimes,China'soverallautonomous-drivingsystem-on-chip(SoC)volumeincreased10%YoYand26%MoMto~760kunitsinMay2026.DividingtheoverallSoCvolumebyChina'sMayretailsalesvolumeof1.47millionunitsyieldsapenetrationrateof51.8%(up14.0pptsYoYand6.8pptsMoM).Wetreatthisasaproxytoforecastthehigh-levelautonomous-drivingsystems(Level2+/Level3withnavigationonautopilot[NOA])penetrationrate.InthemonthsofJanuarytoApril,thisproxyrateisonaverage4.5pptshigherthantheactualhigh-levelautonomous-drivingsystemspenetrationrate.AssumingthesamegapisunchangedinMay,theimpliedLevel2+/Level3penetrationrateinMaywouldbe47.3%(up19.1pptsYoYand6.8pptsMoM).

+852-220-35496

WeiHuang

ResearchAssociate+852-2203-7057

HorizonRobotics'autonomous-drivingSoCvolumeup35%YoYinMay

Thetopeightplayersaccountedfor~98%ofmarketshareinthemonth,withthebreakdownasfollows:Nvidia'sdeliveriesdeclined19%YoYto313,125units(41.2%marketshare),Huawei'svolumeincreased73%YoYto122,557units(16.1%marketshare),Tesla'sdeliveriesincreased22%YoYto95,446units(12.6%marketshare),andHorizonRobotics'volumegrew35%YoYto91,640units(12.1%marketshare).Qualcomm'sdeliveriesincreased261%YoYto59,338units(7.8%marketshare),NIO'svolumeincreased57%YoYto24,356units(3.2%marketshare),TexasInstruments'deliveriesdeclined53%YoYto18,014units(2.4%marketshare),andXPengdelivered16,937units(2.2%marketshare).

WenotethatHorizonRobotics'autonomous-drivingSoCvolumeincreased35%YoYand12%MoMto91,640unitsinMay,rankingfourthamongtheautonomous-drivingSoCmakersinChina(afterNvidia,HuaweiandTesla).HorizonRobotics'5M2026deliveryvolumewas324,344units(up28%YoY),translatingintoa11.4%marketshare(up1.9pptYoY).

HorizonRobotics'ADASfrontcamerachipvolumedown11%YoYinMay

AccordingtostatisticsfromNETimes,China'soveralladvanceddriverassistancesystem(ADAS)frontcamerachipvolumedecreased31%YoYto~501kunitsinMay2026,withthetopfiveplayersaccountingfor~97%ofmarketshareinthemonth.Breakingthisdown,Mobileye'sdeliveriesdeclined36%YoYto204,907units(40.9%marketshare),followedbyRenesas'volumedeclining44%YoYto151,143units(30.2%marketshare).Meanwhile,HorizonRobotics'deliveriesdeclined11%YoYto63,821units(12.7%marketshare),Axera'svolume

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

6July2026

HorizonRobotics

increased178%YoYto38,260units(7.6%marketshare),andAMD'sdeliveriesfell13%YoYto30,062units(6.0%marketshare).

WenotethatHorizonRobotics'ADASfrontcamerachipvolumedecreased11%YoYto63,821unitsinMay,rankingitthirdamongtheADASfrontcamerachipmakersinChina(afterMobileyeandRenesas).HorizonRobotics'5M2026deliveryvolumewas312,410units(down35%YoY),accountingfor11.4%marketshare(down1.6pptYoY).

IntroducesHSD2.0withadvanceddual-engineautonomousdrivingarchitecture

HorizonRoboticshasunveileditssecond-generation"HorizonSuperdrive(HSDV2.0)"full-scenarioautonomousdrivingsystem,markingasignificantarchitecturalshiftfromasingle-stage,end-to-endmodulardesigntoasophisticated"worldmodel+reinforcementlearning"dual-engineframework.Thisinnovativearchitectureisengineeredtodeliveracomprehensiveleapndrivingcapabilities.The"HSDV2.0"leveragesa"worldmodel"that,throughtrainingonreal-worldexpertdriverdata,gainsaspatiotemporalunderstandingtosimulatecomplexlong-tailscenarios.Critically,thisworldmodelcandynamicallypredictfuturetrafficstates,enablingthesystemtoperformdefensivedrivingandnavigationmaneuversthatcloselymimicthoseofaprofessionalhumandriver.Furthermore,HSDV2.0optimizesthecomputingefficiencyofHorizonRobotics'"Journey6P"chipthroughpersistenttoolchainimprovements.

Complementingitsworldmodel,HorizonSuperdrive(HSD)V2.0incorporatesareinforcementlearningmodelthatensurescontinuousself-iterationandevolution,fosteringongoingcapabilityimprovementacrosscriticaldomainsincludinggeneraldriving,parking,safety,andthehandlingofunpredictablelong-tailscenarios.Thisdual-engineapproachestablishesasustainableandself-evolvingtechnicalevolutionarypathforintelligentdrivingsystems,promisingcontinuousimprovementsinautonomousfunctionalityovertime.AkeyadvancementliesintheapplicationoftheOccupancyNetwork(OCC)toactivesafetyfeaturessuchasAutomaticEmergencyBraking(AEB),AutomaticEmergencySteering(AES),andAnti-maloperationforAcceleratorPedal(AMAP).Thismeansthevehicle'sactivesafetysystemhasbeenupgradedfromtraditional"whitelist"objectrecognitiontoan"occupancynetwork,"significantlyenhancingitsabilitytodetectandrespondtounforeseenandirregularobstacles,therebyimprovingoverallvehiclesafety.

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage2

6July2026

HorizonRobotics

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage3

Figure1:MonthlyADCUchipandADAS

frontcamera

YoY

chipvolumesummary

MoM5M2026

YoY

(unit)

May-26

DCU-ChipProvider

760,012

10%

26%

2,833,872

7%

Nvidia

313,125

-19%

4%

1,292,375

-11%

Tesla

95,446

22%

82%

373,540

-8%

Huawei

122,557

73%

112%

341,218

36%

HorizonRobotics

91,640

35%

12%

324,344

28%

TexasInstruments

18,014

-53%

19%

90,131

-36%

Qualcomm

59,338

261%

35%

176,228

157%

Xpeng

16,937

3%

66,222

NIO

DCU-ChipProvider

24,356

Marketshare

57%

9%

107,632

594%

Nvidia

41.2%

-14.6%

-8.6%

45.6%

-8.8%

Tesla

12.6%

1.3%

3.9%

13.2%

-2.1%

Huawei

16.1%

5.8%

6.5%

12.0%

2.6%

HorizonRobotics

12.1%

2.3%

-1.5%

11.4%

1.9%

TexasInstruments

2.4%

-3.2%

-0.1%

3.2%

-2.1%

Qualcomm

7.8%

5.4%

0.5%

6.2%

3.6%

Xpeng

2.2%

2.2%

-0.5%

2.3%

2.3%

NIO

3.2%

0.9%

-0.5%

3.8%

3.2%

ADASFrontCamera

Chip500,995

-31%

6%

2,736,318

-25%

Mobileye

204,907

-36%

1%

1,278,484

-19%

Renesas

151,143

-44%

13%

793,590

-38%

HorizonRobotics

63,821

-11%

9%

312,410

-35%

AMD

30,062

-13%

-2%

161,499

-3%

Axera

ADASFrontCamera

38,260

Chipmarketshare

178%

-1%

137,477

181%

Mobileye

40.9%

-3.3%

-2.0%

46.7%

3.9%

Renesas

30.2%

-6.6%

1.9%

29.0%

-6.0%

HorizonRobotics

12.7%

2.8%

0.3%

11.4%

-1.6%

AMD

6.0%

1.3%

-0.5%

5.9%

1.4%

Axera

Source:NETimes

7.6%

5.7%

-0.6%

5.0%

3.7%

6July2026

HorizonRobotics

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage4

Appendix1

ImportantDisclosures

oboticsieK468(HKD)SJu₂6Dsclosure

PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subject

companies,andothersources.

Fordisclosurespertainingtorecommendationsorestimatesmadeonsecuritiesotherthantheprimarysubjectofthisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteat

/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,

importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundat

/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer

.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting.

AnalystCertification

Theviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheundersignedleadanalyst(s).Inaddition,theundersignedleadanalyst(s)hasnotandwillnotreceiveanycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendationorviewinthisreport.BinWang.

6July2026

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DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage5

Historicalrecommendationsandtargetprice:HorizonRobotics(9660.HK)

SecurityPrice(HKD)

6.5

6.0

5.5

4.54.03.53.0

Dec-24Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26

1.

30

Dec

24

Pricetarget:5(HKD),closeprice3.73(HKD),Recommendation:Buy,Analyst:BinWang

2.

24

Mar

25

Pricetarget:9(HKD),closeprice7.39(HKD),Recommendation:Buy,Analyst:BinWang

3.

27

Aug

25

Pricetarget:8.8(HKD),closeprice7.94(HKD),Recommendation:Buy,Analyst:BinWang

4.

29

Sep

25

Pricetarget:10.5(HKD),closeprice9.59(HKD),Recommendation:Buy,Analyst:BinWang

5.

19

Mar

26

Pricetarget:9.4(HKD),closeprice7.25(HKD),Recommendation:Buy,Analyst:BinWang

6July2026

HorizonRobotics

Companyratingdispersionandbankingrelationships

DBSICompaniesunderCoverage

Buy

Hold

Sell

Covered

57%

43%

0%

w/Bankingrelationship

43%

35%

0%

w/MiFIDservices

63%

50%

67%

GlobalCompaniesunderCoverage

Buy

Hold

Sell

Covered

57%

41%

2%

w/Bankingrelationship

47%

34%

31%

w/MiFIDservices

75%

68%

94%

CompanyRatingandDispersionKey

TheabovetableprovidesasnapshotofDeutscheBank'scompanyresearchratingdistributionacrossourcoveredcompanies.WealsopresentthepercentageofcompanieswhereDeutscheBankhasprovidedInvestmentBankingServicesinthepast12monthsand/orMIFIDInvestmentandAncillaryservices,inthepast12months.Pleaseseethekeyanddefinitionofourratingbelow.

Note-percentagesareroundedsomaynottotal100%.

Covered:Theoverallratingdistributionacrossallcompaniesundercoveragewitharating.

w/Bankingrelation:Percentageofcompaniesundercoveragewitharatingwithineachofthe"buy","hold"and"sell"categoriesforwhichDeutscheBankhasprovidedInvestmentBankingServiceswithintheprevious12months.

w/MiFIDservices:Percentageofcompaniesundercoveragewitharatingwithineachofthe"buy","hold"and"sell"categoriesforwhichDeutscheBankhasprovidedMIFIDInvestmentandAncillaryserviceswithintheprevious12months.

Buy/Hold/SellPercentages:Thesepercentagesreflecttheproportionofcompanieswithineachcategorythathaveebeenassignedthecorrespondingrating,basedonour12-monthviewofTotalShareholderReturn(TSR).

Ratingdefinitions:

Buy:Basedonacurrent12-monthviewofTSR,werecommendthatinvestorsbuythestock.

Sell:Basedonacurrent12-monthviewofTSR,werecommendthatinvestorssellthestock.

Hold:Wetakeaneutralviewonthestock12-monthsoutand,basedonthistimehorizon,donotrecommendeitheraBuyorSell.

TSR:TotalShareholderReturn.Percentagechangeinsharepricefromcurrentpricetoprojectedtargetpriceplusprojecteddividendyield.

Newlyissuedresearchrecommendationsandtargetpricessupersedepreviouslypublishedresearch.

6

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage

6July2026

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DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage7

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