2026创新经济：气候科技行业研究报告

INNOVATION

ECONOMYSectorSpotlight:ClimateTechnology2026Climatetechnology,orclimatetech,

isa

keydriver

of

the

transition

to

a

low-carbon

economy,

andventureactivitywithinthesector

remainssteady.

Fundingcontinuesto

flow

into

startups

focusedongrid

reliabilityandexpandingenergy

storage

as

power

demand

accelerates.

That

demand

is

risingdueto

multipleforces,

includingeconomy-wideelectrificationandthe

rapid

buildoutofAIanddata-centerinfrastructure.

Investors

continueto

seek

battery

and

gridmodernizationtechnologiesasthey’refoundationaltoaflexibleand

resilient

energy

system.

Solutionsfocusedonthecritical

mineralssupplychain

are

also

gaining

momentum,

reflecting

their

relevancetothescalabilityofenergytransition.

Later-stagefinancing

remains

agating

factor,especiallyascompanies

movefrom

pilotstofirst-of-a-kind

(FOAK)

deployments

andontocommercialscale.Wearededicatedto

supporting

foundersthat

are

working

on

climate

andsustainabilitysolutions.-

Robert

KeepersExecutivesummaryAuthors:HeadofClimateTechnology:RobertKeepersHeadofClimate

Technology,

Commercial

BankingVincentHarrisonInnovation

EconomyInsightsAnalystJulieTsangInnovation

EconomyInsightsAnalystNickCandyHeadof

InnovationEconomy

Insights2Contents01

Macro

landscape02Climatetechtaxonomyand

backdrop03Startupinvestmenttrends04

Financing

thetransition301

Macro

landscape1Afteradecade

of

relatively

mutedgrowth,

U.S.electricityconsumption

is

climbing,driven

bythe

buildoutof

new

datacentersalongsidethe

broaderelectrificationofthe

U.S.economy.

The

DOE5

estimatesdatacenters

(primarily

usedforAI)willdouble

electricitydemand

by2028.

Energy

production

is

risingto

meetdemandwithsupplyincreasingly

met

by

renewables.

Recent

legislation

isshapingoutcomes:

IRA6incentivesare

boostingactivity

insolar,

windandstoragesectors

while

newgas

plantsface

increasedcompliance

costs.Tosupportthe

renewablesexpansion,grid

modernizationisimportantto

managevariablegenerationanddemand

spikes.Thepathforwardis

a

dual

buildout:

more

generationtoserve

risingdemand

and

scalestoragewithgrid

upgradestoensuregrid

reliabilityand

resilience.SolarWindCoalNuclearGeothermalCoalNuclearRenewablesDemandforpowerisrising;renewablesarean

important

partofthe

solutionNote:

Figures

reflect

U.S.data

unlessotherwise

noted.1

U.S.electric

powersector.2

Cumulativeincrementalelectricity

netgeneration

from

2020

onwards.

3

Renewables

includes

wind,

solar,

wood

and

wood-derived

fuels,

landfill

gas,

solid

waste,

other

waste

biomass,

geothermal

and

hydroelectric.4

U.S.

netsummercapacityadditions,whichis

defined

as

the

maximum

output

that

generating

equipment

can

supply

at

the

time

of

summer

peak

demand.

5

The

DOE

represents

the

U.S.

Department

of

Energy.

6

IRA

representsthe

Inflation

ReductionAct

of

2022.Source:U.S.

Energy

InformationAdministration;

Lawrence

Berkeley

National

Laboratory;The

U.S.

Departmentof

Energy.Annualelectricitynetgenerationbyenergy

source3SOLAR&STORAGE:AGROWING

SHARE

OF

ADDITIONAL

CAPACITY202020212022202320242025Netcapacityadditionsbyenergy

source420212022202320242025E2026E2027EAnnualincrementalelectricitynetgeneration1,2Annualelectricitynetgenerationandconsumption1

5,000TWh4,500TWh4,00

0TWh3,500TWh3,000TWh2,500TWh2,000TWh5,000TWh4,00

0TWh3,000TWh2,000TWh1,000TWh0TWh600TWh500

TWh400TWh300

TWh200

TWh100TWh0TWhIncrementalelectricity-datacenters

Incrementalelectricity-otherELECTRICITY

CONSUMPTION

CLIMBSAS

DATA

CENTERS

SCALE

Electricityconsumption

——ElectricitynetgenerationRENEWABLES

EXPAND

ROLE

IN

ELECTRICITY

GENERATION70GW60GW50GW40GW30GW20GW10

GW0GWPetroleum

and

otherBatterystorage1998200

01998200

0200

2200

4200

2200

4200

6200

6200

8200

8202220242026E202220242026E20182020201820202010201020142014199019901994199420162016199619962012201219921992Natural

gasNatural

gas81%27%5Aselectricitydemand

rises

amidthebuildoutofdata

centers

and

broader

electrificationefforts,thegridisshowingclearsigns

of

strain.

Despite

the

urgent

needto

updateagingtransmission

lines,constructionof

new

lines(especially

more

reliable

highvoltage

lines)

iswell

belowthe

levelnecessaryto

keep

upwithdemand.Grids

must

manageagrowingshare

of

supplycomingfrom

renewables,which

often

requires

moretime

becauseofchallengessuchas

longer

distancesbetween

powergenerationandend-usefacilities—the

rising

backlogofinterconnection

requests

highlightsthis

issue.

Lookingahead,

meetingthe

next

waveofelectricitydemand

will

require

grid

resilienceandstreamlinedprocessingandapprovals

forinterconnection

requests.2,5002,0001,5001,000500020152016

2017

2018201920202021202220232024202512108642020152016201720182019202020212022202320242,500GW2,000GW1,500GW1,000GW500

GW0GW2015201620172018201920202021202220232024All

transmission

linesHighvoltagelinesPertheDOE’sNationalTransmissionPlanningStudy,annualadditionsof5,000high-voltagemiles

are

needed

to

meet

growing

demand.Total

hoursof

poweroutageanaveragecustomerexperiencesinayear(SAIDI

metric)2

Total

capacity

of

interconnection

requestsbacklogbyproject

type

(cumulative

GW)Note:

Figures

reflect

U.S.data

unlessotherwise

noted.1Transmission

linesaddedaretransmission

projects

completed

in

FERC

Energy

Instructure

Updates.

2025

only

includes

January

to

September

data.

2

SAIDI

isa

reliability

metric

which

stands

for

System

Average

Interruption

Duration

Indexand

is

measured

usingthe

IEEEstandard.Source:

Federal

Energy

RegulatoryCommission(FERC);

U.S.

Departmentof

Energy;

Lawrence

Berkeley

National

Laboratory.ElectricalgridsareoverdueformajorupgradestohandledemandMilesoftransmissionlinesaddedtothegridbyyear1MODERNIZATION:

NEWSUPPLYWILLCOME

FROM

RENEWABLESMonitoring5.5millionUpdatesare

necessarytomilesoflinesisdifficulthandlemodernelectrificationdemandsSolar

Storage

WindOther

(Hydro,Nuclear,Geothermal)GRID

HARDENING:

RESILIENCY,

RELIABILITY&

MODERNIZATIONRESILIENCY:

MORE

MILESOFTRANSMISSION

LINES

NEEDEDRELIABILITY:

OUTAGESARE

GETTING

LONGEROver70%oftransmission

linesareover25yearsold6Manyfactorsarepushing

1

2

3upthecostofelectricityfasterthaninflation:1.Spikesin

LNG

pricing

inNov2021and2022.

.2.Extreme

weatherevents,like

the

TexasheatwaveinJuly2022.3.Increasingelectricity1.4consumptionfromdata

centers.C

PI

(inflation)Average

U.S.

electricity

priceElectricity

prices

have

increased

more

quicklythaninflationsince

2020,

rising

nearly6%

betweenSeptember

2024

and2025.Costlyweather

disasters

are

concentratedindensely

populatedcoastal

regions,suchasthe

South

and

Southeast.Theseweathereventscontributeto

higherelectricity

prices

becauseofinfrastructure

damage,supplydisruptionand

costlyinvestments

ingrid

resilience.These

costsalsoaffect

insurance

markets,with

premiums

risingindisaster-prone

regionsdueto

increasedclaims

andelevated

riskassessments,which

inturndrive

up

reinsurancecosts.

Gridmodernizationisimportant

to

helpmoderatetheimpactof

electricityprices,

insurance

premiumsandother

expensesassociatedwiththe

cost-of-

living.3025201510502015201620172018201920202021202220232024$3,000$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,00

0$500$0SoutheastNortheastMidwestNorthernGreat

Plains26%higherthanthenationalaveragenationalaverageRisingelectricitydemandandclimateriskspressurehouseholdfinancesBillion-dollardisastersbytypeofdisaster1HOME

INSURANCE

PREMIUMS

HIGHER

IN

DISASTER-PRONEAREASJan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25CPIandaverageelectricityprice(indexedto1/1/2020)Note:

Figures

reflect

U.S.data

unlessotherwise

noted.1

Billion-dollardisastersare

CPI-adjustedto

2024.Source:U.S.

Bureauof

LaborStatistics;

U.S.

Energy

InformationAuthority;

National

Oceanicand

Atmosphere

Administration;

U.S.

Department

of

Treasury.Severe

stormWinter

stormDroughtFreezeTHE

FREQUENCY

OF$1B+

DISASTERS

IS

INCREASING2018-2022averagehomeownersinsurancepremiumby

policy

(highest

risk

category)

by

U.S.

region1.51.41.31.21.11.00.9THE

COST

OF

ELECTRICITY

KEEPS

ON

RISINGSouthwest

NorthwestNational

averageTropical

cyclone

Flooding

Wildfire10%higherthantheSouthernGreat

Plains$2,321702

Climatetechtaxonomyand

backdrop1ClimateIntuitionSeriesTheJ.P.MorganClimateIntuitionthoughtleadershipserieshighlightstheimpactofclimatechangeonstrategicdecision-making,rangingfromfuture-

proofingportstotherecentshiftinglobalenergyandgeopoliticaldynamics.The“Resilience:WhereClimateChangeandNationalSecurityMeet”paper1underlinesthegrowingalignmentbetweenclimateandnationalsecurity.Three

ofthemainthemesalignwiththesubsectorshighlightedinthisreport:Climatechangeasastrategicthreatmultiplier:

Disasterresponse

ResourcemanagementResilientinfrastructure:

Decentralization Disastervs.accessibilityerosion

Multi-useplanningInformationgatheringandinterpretation:

Uncreweddatacollectionandsmarttechnologies DataprovenanceandcybersecurityGridinfrastructureBatteryandbatterymaterialsClimateresiliency

andadaptationCriticalmineralsextractionandrecyclingThefocusonsectorsaddressingemergingglobaltrendsisdeliberatebecausethesesubsectorsencompassinnovativesolutions

thatmitigateoradapttoclimatechange.•Gridandbatterytechnologiesstrengthengridresiliency,supporting

robustinfrastructure.•Climateresiliencyandadaptationtechhelpsbusinessesand

people

better

understandandacclimatetothechangingenvironment.•Criticalmineralsextractionandrecyclingtechisintegraltoprovidinga

sufficientsupplyforseveralcriticalclimatetechnologies,includinglithium-

ionbatteries.TheclimatetechtaxonomyforresiliencyandadaptationSTARTUPS

BUILDING

INTHESE

SELECT

CLIMATETECH

SUBSECTORSWILL

PLAYA

CRITICAL

ROLE

IN

ENERGY

RESILIENCYAND

NATIONAL

SECURITYNote:1

Forthefull

paper,

refertoResilience:WhereClimateChangeand

NationalSecurity

Meet.9Electric

utilities94%90%RealestateUti

lities

ex.ElectricutilitiesMaterialsConsumer

staplesIndustrials87884%8784%84%78%92%%90%9%%Energy83%75%Information

technologiesFi

nancials

2Consumer

discretionaryCommunication

servicesHealthcare82%76%80%75%80%78%78%72%74%68% Coastalflood Tropical

cyclone$1,641B

Fluvial

flood

Wildfire Landslide$82B

Pluvial

flood

Drought$1,206B

Extreme

heat$55B$134B$300B$885B $38B$265B$181B$925B$696B$538BSouth

Africa

36

mn

130Mexico

207

267Hungary

33

355Hong

Kong

9

415Turkey

33

526Singapore

239675Brazil

389

738Australia

239

1,121Russia1,173

1,625Israel61India

820Switzerland

200Denmark

245Canada

1,854Fossil

fuel

patentsEmerging

energy

technologypatents4Note:

1As

of

March3,2025;

Results

based

on

responses

from

participating

companies

in

the

2024

CSA

assessed

on

the

topics

of

climate

risk

management

and

financial

risks

of

climate

change.The

sample

sizes

are

3,200

companies

assessed

on

climate

risk

management

and

2,655

companies

assessed

on

the

financial

risks

of

climate

physical

hazards.

2

Financial

impactfor

thefinancials

sector

does

not

reflect

portfolio

exposure.3

Under

SSP2-4.5

(a

medium

climate

change

scenario)that

contemplates

strong

mitigation,

in

which

total

greenhouse

gas

emissions

stabilize

at

current

levels

until2050and

then

decline

to

2100.

This

scenario

is

expected

to

result

in

global

average

temperatures

rising

by

2.7

C

(2.1

C-3.5

C)

by

the

end

of

the

century.)

Noinflationassumptionsareappliedand

resultsare

presented

in

nominal2024

prices.

4

Includesstorage,

industry

energy

efficiency

or

substitution,

e-mobility,

building

energy

efficiency,

solar,

hydrogen

and

fuel

cells,wind,

bioenergy,

vehicle

fuel

efficiency,

renewable

energy

integration

in

buildings,

grid,

nuclear,

other

renewables,

carbon

capture

and

storage,

renewables,energyefficiency,agricultureenergyefficiency,and

air-rail-marine.Source:

S&PGlobalSustainable1;2025

S&P

Global;

IEA.Climaterisk,financialexposureandtheshifttoward

cleanenergyinnovationSweden

320ChineseTaipei

132UnitedKingdom2,332

France

3,220Korea

1,574Germany3,273U.S.China

5,696Japan

3,349Saudi

Arabia

447

mn

1,663$1,800B$1,600B$1,400

B$1,200B$1,00

0B$800

B$600

B$4

00B$200B$0

BTOTALANNUAL

FINANCIAL

IMPACTONS&PGLOBAL

1200

COMPANIES3COMPANIESTHAT

INCLUDEACUTE&CHRONIC

PHYSICAL

RISK

INCLIMATE

RISKASSESSMENTS1Bythe2050s,costswillreach$1.2T/yrwithutilitiesrepresentingthelargestsectoroflosses

($244B)68%-94%ofcompaniesincludeacuteandchronicphysicalriskinclimateriskassessmentsEmergingenergytechnologypatentsdominateinnovationforcommercializationworldwideDr.Sarah

KapnickGlobal

HeadofClimateAdvisory

Commercial&InvestmentBankAcutephysicalriskChronic

physical

riskFOSSIL

FUELVS.

CLEAN

ENERGY

PATENTS

BY

COUNTRY11010

0

1,00010

,000

100,00040,84342,28469,98272,74291,7812030s

2050s2090s5,79710,10410,25116,663$192B本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:349461下载,文档Id:1164377,下载日期:2026-03-28$89BNorway1,170

1,192WaterstressLogscale1,6471,68225,3564,46086%2,5283,105103.53.02.52.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5and

procurement

easePraseodym

(REE)Neodymi

iumGraphitum

(REE)CobalteDysprosium(REE)MineralavailabilityNearcriticalCriticalLithiumMine Copperralimportancetothe

futureofenergy

2021

202420302040Asglobaladoptionofenergytechnologiesaccelerates,

demandfor

critical

minerals

is

estimated

to

outpace

supply

growth

through

2040.

The

anticipated

supply

shortfall

is

particularly

pronounced

in

copper,

cobaltand

REE,withshortfallestimatesto

reach25%

or

more

by2040.

In

this

environment,

U.S.

critical

mineral

supply

chains

require

significant

reinforcement

to

mitigate

supply

risk

and

bolster

nationalsecurity.The

U.S.

remains

highly

relianton

imports,which

is

largelydriven

bytheconcentration

of

critical

mineral

production

in

China,

Chile,

Australia,

Democratic

Republic

ofthe

Congo,

Indonesia

and

Brazil.Note:1

Selectcritical

mineralsarecopper,graphite,

nickel,

lithium,

cobalt

and

rare

earth

elements

(REE).

Supply,

demand

and

shortfall

estimates

are

from

the

International

Energy

Agency

(IEA).

2

Shortfall

iscalculated

as

projected

supply

minus

demand.

3

Inthe

U.S.

criticality

assessment,importancetoenergyfactorsinenergydemand

and

substitutability

limitations.

Supply

riskfactors

in

basic

availability,

competing

technology

demand,

political,

regulatory

and

social

factors,

codependence

on

other

markets,

and

producer

diversity.Source:International

EnergyAgency;

U.S.

Energy

InformationAuthority;U.S.Geological

Survey

.Spotlight:TheracetosecurecriticalmineralsSUPPLYSHORTFALLS

ESTIMATED

TOCONTINUELithiumCopperNickelCobaltGraphiteREEINCOMBINATION,THE

RELATIVE

IMPORTANCEAND

ACCESSIBILITYOFCRITICAL

MATERIALSVARIES0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%10

.09.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0U.S.criticalityassessmentinthemediumterm:

Importancetoenergyandsupply

risk3Selectcritical

mineralsglobalshortfallasashareoftotaldemand1,2Selectcritical

mineralsglobaldemand(indexedto2021)1CopperGraphiteNickelLithiumCobaltREECRITICAL

MINERAL

DEMAND

ISSURGING2021202420302040Nicke11l03

Startup

investment

trends1Climatetechfunding

rose

in2025

even

asthe

numberofdeals

fell,

whichmirrorsthe

broaderventure

market.Theshareof

deals

has

moved

laterstage,onesign

the

category

ismaturing.

Dealsizes

have

remainedfairlyconsistent,exceptfor

Series

Cdealswhich

rosedueto

larger

dealsbeing

raised

by

batterytechnologyand

mineralexplorationcompanies.Themain

breakoutcategory

has

beencritical

minerals,which

hasseenthe

amountofdeals

double

since

2020.

In

addition,adaptationtech

has

bucked

the

broaderventure

markettrend,and

more

recentlythe

mainstream

battery

niche

hasstartedto

become

moreactiveaftera

slight

slump

in

2023.7%12%24%26%59%50%Climatetechmediandealsize

byseries2,3

Changeinventuredealcountfrom2020foryears2021-2025,forselectsubsectorsand

nichesNote:

Figures

reflect

U.S.data

unlessotherwise

noted.1

Allclimatetechincludes

battery

and

grid

tech,

clean

mobility

and

charging

infrastructure,

food

and

agriculturetech,

built

environment,

industrial

tech,

carbon

tech,

and

adaptation

and

water

tech.

2

Only

deals

with

disclosed

series

datawereincluded.3

Logscaled

usedforeaseof

interpretation.Source:

PitchBook.

Data

has

not

been

reviewed

by

PitchBookanalysts.Climatetechventurefundingpersistsamidstlowerdealvolume36%

technology

56%26%

18%

16%20%

·

3%

14%10%

13%

·1% -21%

-14%LATER-STAGE

DEAL

SIZES

GROWAS

INDUSTRY

MATURESCRITICAL

MINERALS

BREAKS

OUTASA

CATEGORYDERs34%

31%

-12%LATER-STAGE

DEALS

INCREASEASA

SHARE

OFTOTAL

DEALSBattery

tech50%Climate

techSeedSeriesASeriesBSeries

CSeriesDSeriesE+

26%\

9%8%

6%FUNDING

KEEPS

FLOWINGWHILE

DEALCOUNT

FALLS202020212022202320242025202020212022202320242025202020212022202320242025

37%

0%Critical

minerals Capital

invested——

Deal

countClimatetechdeals

byshareofalldeals

byyear1,2SeedSeries

ASeriesBSeries

CClimatetechinvestmentactivity190%

77%20%Mainstream

batterytechAdaptation

tech86%100%64%All

U.S.

venture39%1,830

1,8226%16%23%$34M$33M$35M6%12%25%5%11%27%4%11%24%

19%26%$14M$13M$2M$2M

29%3%11%$30.7B$16.8B$13.4B$14.3B$21.6B$17.6B$40M100%$64M$98M$30M$50M$20M$45M1,496$28M1,744$27M$12M1,451$11M$11M70%1,15162%53%52%57%25%$8M61%$3M$3M$3M51%$2M13Grid.Gridtechventurefunding

reachedarecord

high

in2025.This

increasewas

primarilyduetoa

mega-round

raised

byonecompany,

reflecting

theheightenedinterestin

the

aggregation

of

DERs.

Utilitiesare

increasinglyworkingwithVPP

providersandintegrating

DERstoexpandgridcapacity

usingexistinginfrastructure.

DERsarea

powerfultool

for

expanding

gridflexibility,suchas

residentialbatterysystems.Generally,thesesolutionstendto

be

morecapitalintensiveduetothe

cost

oftheunderlying

hardware.AI

is

becomingincreasinglyintegratedtoimprove

grid

capabilities,for

instance,

byenabling

workerstoefficientlyanalyzegrid

data

andidentify

anomalies.$120M$100M$80M$60M$4

0M$20M$0

MAll

venture

Grid

techClimate

tech$7M$6M$5M$4

M$3M$2M$1M$0

MClimate

tech

Grid

tech

DERsGridintelligenceTransmissiontech70%60%50%40%30%20%10

%0%202020212022

202320242025Cap

ita

linvested$2.5B$2.0B$1.5B$1.0B$0

.5B$0

.0B2020

20212022

2023

2024

202563%58%42%$47M$20M$22M$4M

$4M$4M$86M$340M$570M$1.4BBalancingtheload:GridtechunlocksflexibilitytomanagedemandNote:

Figures

reflect

U.S.data

unlessotherwise

noted.1

VPP

representsvirtual

power

plants.

DERMS

isshortfordistributedenergy

resource

managementsystems.

DERs

represents

distributed

energy

resources.Transmission

tech

includes

advanced

transmission,

grid-enhancing

and

grid

resiliencytechnology.2

Deals

included

ifdealsize

isdisclosed.3

Startups

included

inanalysis

if

they

raised

funding

between

2023

and

2025.

Deals

excluded

if

funding

is

not

disclosed.

4

VPPs

&

DERMs

are

excluded

dueto

small

sample

size.Source:

PitchBook.

Data

has

not

been

reviewed

by

PitchBookanalysts.Ventureactivityforgridtechstartupsbysubsector1STARTUPSWORKING

ON‘DERS’

RAISE

LARGER

ROUNDSVenturedealsizeranges

bystageand

sector3MORE

GRIDTECH

STARTUPSARE

INCORPORATINGAI2025GRIDTECH

INVESTMENT

HITSANALL-TIME

HIGHVPPs

&DERMSDERsGrid

i

ntelligenceTransmissiontechAS

GRIDTECH

STARTUPS

GROW,

CAPITAL

NEEDSACCELERATE Gridi

ntelligence

DERs

TransmissiontechShareofgridtechstartupsthatincorporateAIacrossselectsubsectors1,4Mediandealsizeforclimatetech,gridtechandselectsubsectors2,4All

venture

Grid

techClimate

techEarly-stage

Late-stageGrid

tech

Climatetech$8MAll

ventureSeed$28M20232025$11M202114Climatetech

investors

havecontinued

to

back

batterytechstartups,withinvestment

reaching$2.8

billionin2025.Startupsdeveloping

batterytechnologiesandsolutionstendtorequire

morecapital,especiallyfornext-gen

batteries.

Eachyear,aconsistent

numberof

mega-roundsare

raised,with

proceedstypicallyallocat