最好的时代最坏的时代：如何在美国K型经济中投资

"ItwasthebestoftDickens'ATaleofTwoCities'capturesaperiodofcontradicthisnote,weexaminethececonomy.Asmallershareoftcovers7,700nationallyrepresentahouseholdexpenditureacrossspeciOverthelasttwodecades,high-incomeAmericansalookingatthelastfiveyearsonly.WithinleisurwatchingTV,playinggames/computerandgeneralrelaxation.lastfiveyears,high-incomeAmericasspentincremincomehasmainlycomefromwatchithelastfiveyears.HighincomeAmericansinvestments,pensions,andvehiclesfoodawayfromhome(4.6x)andegalitarianarehousekeepingsupplies(2.6x),foodtobacco(0.8x).Overthelastfiveyears,services,apparel,housekwww.bernsteinresearch.cNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@aperiodofcontradiction:theFrenchariscyclicalvs.structuraldebateinUSalcohol.Adrivenbythreepotentialfactotheratioincreasedfrperiod,andsoamajorearnings.2020alsosawaspikeinthemultiple,reflectiveofUSRestaurants.Withlow-lower-income-orientedQSRsthatremainexposedtopresinflationonceagainoutpandsnackingoccasions,whconsumers,includingCAVA,SBUX,NadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Overall,wethinktheK-shapedeconomyfavorsoperatorswiththeriscaleorexecutiondisciplinetodefenUSFood.We'veseenseveralnocontinuinghealthandwellnesstrends.IntermsofspendingpmorepeoplestartedtoworkfromhoOverall,ourconcernforU.S.-centricpackagereducingtimetakenfooutofhomeoccasions,particulaaffluentconsumerwhichprovidessomegreasthecategoryremaineddeflationaryoverthelastfewdUSApparelandSpecialtyRetail.Apparelspendasashareofwastructurallyskewedtowardhigher-incomeconsumers.Wiwellnesstrendscontinue,coupledwithcasualizaoutpacethatofAppareloverall(TheLongView:GlobalSportswear-ElowincomeconsumertendstofocusonR&D/innovationtodriveintrinsicdifferentiationconsumers,evenintimesofstreamingasthenextstandard,theprimaryamonglower-incomeconsumers.Ifanything,switchingfromtraditioncaneasepressureonconsumers'wallets.OnepotentsupportedtiersasawaytosaveafInstagramandYouTube(coveredbyShmulik)hasweimodelsthatwouldkeepeveryonegluedtothescreEuropeanAutos.Therecord-lowautomotivemarketduetotherelativeaffluencNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadinBidengreenhousegasregulationshasfocontractionintheoverallmarketduringreturnsinNorthAmericaforcertainlosingsightofonealsoeatingintoaffordabilitto$47,244overthesameperiodito1H24butrevenuesanlowerincomesthanthosebincomeforBMWbuyerswas>$100,000,>$100,000forMerorgovernment).However,thingsarechangingwiththeGLP1andanti-obcash,withinsurance(governmentoremployer)onlycontributingamaccessopeningup&weexpecttoencouragedtousetheseproducts.Generally,phaGLP1exposure),wealcoverageashighlyresilMarketplace.ThesetwoareasarecurrentlyoutoffavactasagentsofthegovernmenttocontrolthisGlobalLuxuryGoods.QuestwastogobacktoproducingweaCleef&Arpels.Ifinsteadincomeandwealthinluxurymarketgrowth,puttingNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@ 42 46 50NadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@controlsincomeearnedanindicativeofunderlyingtrendsineachcaSource:FederalReserve,BernsteinOverthelasttwodecades,high-reverseforlow-income(Exhibit4Americasspentincremleisuretimeforlow-incomehasmaiNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@ □2004-24■2019-24Low-incomeAmericanshaveexperiencedincreamiddle-incomeAmeriincomeAmericanshavebeenincreasingallocationstos34.1%6.1%4.1%Lowest20%Source:USBureauofLaborStaamoderation(Exhibit7andExhibit8).Wofearningsspending6.9xmorein2024thanthelowawayfromhome(4.6x)andpNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsurance(2.9x)sitmiddleofthepack.Moandtobacco(0.8x).OverBernsteinK-Shapedinratiotop20%earnertobottomSource:USBureauofLaboHousekeepingsuppli0.1x0.1x0.1xSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadinTheUShasseenwideningincomei9).Giniindexmeasurestheextenttowhichthedihouseholdswithinaneconomydeviateoftotalincomereceivedagainstthecumulativenuwealth,vs.44%in1990.Incontrast,themiddlQuintile($tn,adjustedtoSource:FederalReserve,BIndexedUSHouseholdWeaIncomeQuintile(Stn,adjustedto4Q25doSource:FederalReserve,BernsteinNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Source:FederalReserve,Bernsteinestate.Instead,itlargelycomprisescoTop0.1%99-99.9%90-99%Source:FederalReserve,BernsteinNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Source:FederalReserve,Bernstein47.9%□Relestate■ConsumerSource:FederalReserve,Bernsteinearnedhigherthanthis(i.e.theupperlimited20%ofAmericansearned$NadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Source:USBureauofLaboSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Itsgoalistoprovide"nationallyrepresentativeestialso"theonlyfederalsurveyprovidingdataonthefullrangeofnon-marcasesforthesurveyareselectedmonthly,„andinterviewsareconducteappearirrelevantfortoday'sworld(i.e.timewereshoehornedintoexistingcategories(i.e.videoganattemptatmaintainingthelong-termconsistenOverthelasttwodecades,highdegreespent~17%oftheirdayworkingoronworkrelatunemployedorchoosenottowork),tcomeslargelyattheexpenseofleisure&sportsNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@analysisWithinleisure,in2024hi22).Low-incomeoverindextowatchingTV,playinggames/computerandgenerlastfiveyears,high-incomeAmericasspandsports&exercise(Exhibit23).Lostleisuretim analysis36%67.6%8.9%5.9%WatchingTVWatchingTVNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@USBureauofLaborStatmorethantheyearn(incl.relyingonsavings,loansandpensincomesave/investaconsiderableamounto“expenditure”(seedefinitionsinappendix).90%70%50%Lowest20%-----Source:USBureauofLaborStaExhibit27illustratestheshareofexpenditurebythingsstickout.ShelteraccountsforNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@29%3.2%4.1%6.1%4.1%Lowest20%Third2Source:USBureauofLaborStaLow-incomeAmericanshaveexperiencedincreamiddle-incomeAmericans.ThisisespeciallytrincomeAmericanshavebeenincreasingallocationstosavinNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@insurance..AlcoholicbeveragesChangeinexpenditure,bytyptoshelterhasincreasedAlcoholicbeveragesLowincomehaveincreasedandallincomeclassesspeSource:USBureauofLaborStatistics'ConsumerExpenditureSurvey,BernsteinSource:USanalysisarehousekeepingsupplies(2.6x),foodathome(2.4x),drugs(2.3x)andtobacco(0.8x).Overthservices,apparel,housekeepingsuppliesandgoodathNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@ AlcoholicbeveragesSource:USBureauofLaborStaNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@ratiotop20%earnertobottom20%HousekeepingsuppliHousekeepingsuppli0.1x0.1x0.1xSource:USBureauofLabo毫毫NadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Bottom33%byincomeconsumersentime —Bottom33%toMiddle33%Source:UniversityofMichNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@aroundsocialoccasions(see:WeekendConsumerBlandwasmostpronouncedi NadineSarwat,CFA+4420767668Source:USBureauofLaborStaTheshareofhousehoamountvs.othercohorts.IthasalsoLowest20%Source:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%ThirdSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsAnalternativedatasetistheBureauofEconomicAnalysis's(BEA)personalexpeThisBEAdatasetrevealsthatAmerihigherthanin2019.Weseepersonalexpenditureonbeveisduetopricing.On-premisepurepricing$20+cocktail.inthiseconevengreaterpremiumization(especiallyinfull-strengtchecks.Consumersmightnothavebeenddowntradingtodayaswalletsareunderpressexpensivethanthevolumethattheyarecannibalizing(i.e.beerorfull-strengthspirits).However,toconsumerisprimarilyconcerneSource:DISCUS,BMI,Nielsen,NABCA,BernsteinanalysisandestimatesNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Source:BEA,BernsteinaUSAlcohol:ShareofP201520162017201820192020Source:BEA,BernsteinaNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Exhibit45illustratestheBernsteinK-shapedi2018,theratioincreaseearnings.2020alsosawmultiplehascontractedtojustbel2004-242014-242019-Source:USBureauofLaboSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@growthoffastfoodcontinuingtooutpacetandExhibit48).Webelieoccurredearlyinthepandemic,(2)Compressionofsdisproportionatelyvisitfastfoodestablishmentsrelatheyareretiredmaywellbeusingcoomoreemphasisonbeansandp2022/3.Foodathomespendingwasgeneralsharply,followedbysomefairlystableyearssincethen(ExhibiNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@FoodawayfromhomespendingwasfollowedbyasharpcoSteppingback,overthepasttwodiscretionarynatureofrestaurantspendiSimilarly,theratioofspendingomid-2000sthroughthelate2thankstoincreasingdisposableadiscountingandpromotionalstrategytore-enticeconsumersbackWethinklower-andmiddle-incomehouseholddiscretionaryitems,asthepricinginflati56).Source:USBureauofLaboSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadineratiotop20%earnertobottSource:USBureauofLabo2004-242014-242019-Source:USBureauofLaboSource:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%Third20%FourthSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@ratiotop20%earnertobottom4.4xSource:USBureauofLaboSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@incomecohorts,particularlyinquartilis3an57-Exhibit58).ThisgaphaswidenedmeaningfullLookingahead,weexpeforhigher-incomeconsumers.Onghavegreateraccess,abilitytoafford,andwillingnesstoinvestweexpecttoseesomemoderationoncelower-iincomecohortsremainthequartile(i.e.low-inc 0.04prevalenceoffastfashionhasloweredthecostofstoftheirbudgetstowardnecessities(e.g.Whiletheoverallrendiscconsumers.High-incomecohortscontinuetospendsigindirectionofspend:overthepastfiveyears,lowpercentoftheirtotalexpenditure,whilehigher-inNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@apparel(Exhibit60).andwellnessbecomemoreembeddedandgreaterwillingnesstospendonSportsAppaaheadofGDPandApparelandFootwear(A&F),supportedhealthapremiumizationtrends.Moredetail:TheLongView:GlobalSportswear-EvoluAverageshareofannualexpenditureSource:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%ThirdSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadineratiotop20%earnertobottoSource:USBureauofLaboSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@inshareofwalletoverthepasttwentyyearsandfiveyearsacrosThepersonalcaredatashowtheopposite.WhilsthereissomeevidenceLowest20%Second20%Source:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%Third20%Fourth20%HighestSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadineratiotop20%earnertobottoSource:USBureauofLaboSource:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Source:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%Third2Source:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@BernsteinK-Shapedinratiotop20%earnertobotto4.4xSource:USBureauofLabo2004-242014-242019-Source:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@ourviewisthatthis“K-Shaped”debateissomewhatleindex”Lowest20%Second20% Source:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%ThirdSource:USBureauofLaboratiotop20%earnertobottomSource:USBureauofLabo2004-242014-242019-Source:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@TVviewingtimeperpersharplyasusersrapidlyswitchedtocheain2019),aslinearschedulesencouraged“oro-10-11-2-12*-13*-13-3%-12-1-1019BoththetraditionalPayTVSource:Companyreports,SNLKNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Source:Companyreports,SNLK,BernsteNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@50Source:Companyreports;BernsteinanQuarterlytotalviewingtimeiscalSource:Nielsen;BernsNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@AccordingtodatapublishedbyCoverydefinitionoftheK-shapedeconomy.IpredictivefactorregardingtheincreasinglybeenpricingmillionsofAassmallcars.CoxdaAstudybyconsulta$17,000to$30,000.Today,startingfortheGrandWagoneer,whirecognizesrevenueandprofitwhenNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@ Source:USBureauofLaboratiotop20%earnertobottoSource:USBureauofLaboLowestLowest20%Second20%Third20%FSource:USBureauofLabo2004-242014-242019-Source:USBureauofLabofullybatteryelectricandplug-inhybridvehiclandthedismantlingoftheObama-Bidenstrongprofitability,evenwiththetariffheadwindsthatwereintroducedlastyNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadin5%and25%respectivelyExhibit85,againstATP-averagetransactSource:CoxAutomotive,BernsteinanalysisSource:CoxAutomotive,BernsteinanaThehighermix/higherpriceenvironmforGMandFord(bothnotcoverplentiful,especiallyoncethesameperiodinthestimate)and>$300,000focannotafford”(link).WhileGMreportedNorthAmericaadjustedEBITof$StellantisNorthAmerNadineSarwat,CFA+4420767668beenbookedinStellantis'1Q26NorthAmerNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@arecurrentlyoutoffavorduetorehealthinsurancecovSource:USBureauofLaboratiotop20%earnertobottSource:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%ThirdLowest20%Second20%ThirdSource:USBureauofLabo2004-242014-242019-Source:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Source:USBureauofLaboratiotop20%earnertobottoSource:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%Third20%FSource:USBureauofLaboSource:USBureauofLabonewdynamicsthatarelikelytocontinuetoshoftheAffordableCareActbetween2010-14likelydrivenmarketforpharmaceuticalsinathemanufacturershaveNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@insurance(commercialorgovernment)onlycovspendsondrugsforthesequForthelowestquintile-thedrugspendastheAffordableCareActsbudgettoprovideaccesstotheFortheover65s(whotendtoconcentratetowardsabexpandaccesstotheantweightlossshotorpill.Werecognizethattyoungerage-categorieswillseetwaspreviouslythehighestutilizspendislikelytoincreasefortmorewiththatinflection,ratherthaSource:USBureauofLaboLowest20%Second20%ThirdSource:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@ratiotop20%earnertobottomSource:USBureauofLabo2004-242014-242019-Source:USBureauofLaboNadineSarwat,CFA+442076766849nadine.sarwat@Fulllistavailablehere:Glossary:U.S.BuConsumerunit-Consumerunitsconsistfinanciallyindependent,ortwoormorepersonsliviEducationofreferencepetheextentoftheireducIncomeaftertaxes-Incomebeforetaxeslascendingorder,accordiintofiveequalgroups.IFoodathomereferstoconsumerunitontrips.Iteincludingtipsatfastfood,take-out,delivery,concemachinesandmobilevendorsUtilities,fuels,andpublicseHousekeepingsuppliesincludeslaundryandcserviceminusanyreimbursements.Aneorganizations(HMO's),cMedicalservicesincludeshospitalroomsDrugsincludesnonprescription