新凤鸣二季度盈利大幅改善涤纶长丝供需边际向好

润毛为率，图新凤鸣单季度营业收入（亿元）及同比增速 图新凤鸣单季度归母净利润（亿元）及同比增速图新凤鸣单季度毛利率、净利率 图新凤鸣单季度销售、管理、研发、财务费用率二季度公司量，环比），开工率环比下降；不含税平均售价/同为/比据率81率给年至较升、年口，丝15规模优势持续凸显。度量价/同动业PX加31同量33价/、图涤纶长丝POY(150D/48F)价格、价差（元/吨） 图涤纶长丝FDY(150D/96F)价格、价差（元/吨）图涤纶长丝DTY(150D/48F)价格、价差（元/吨） 图江浙地区涤纶长丝及下游织机开工率（）图江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数（天） 图中国服装鞋帽针纺织品类零售额当月同比（） 盈利预测假设前提我们预计公司年营收为亿元，同比增长，归母净利润为亿元，同比增长。1、收入预测核心假设丝至供PX能超第6年AA0随PX至6年A约0；86/吨；2027-2028年随原料回落分别为8500/8450元/吨。约/随为60170万吨。6年A约0；PX/PX约年PX吨约随PX为元/吨。年收入分别为为在。率。表1：盈利预测假设基础2023202420252026E2027E2028EPOY收入（亿元）314.58349.98323.76317.25320.85325.38yoy1511-7-211产量（万吨）464.95518.42547.38475.00490.00500.00销量（万吨）462.90524.70533.67450.00465.00475.00产销率99.6101.297.594.794.995.0平均售价（元/吨）679666706067705069006850单位成本（元/吨）646263815676637062436222成本（亿元）299.13334.79302.93286.65290.30295.55毛利（亿元）15.4515.1920.8330.6030.5529.83yoy107-237470-2毛利率4.94.36.49.69.59.2毛利占比43.140.254.845.944.442.6FDY收入（亿元）109.05112.79102.31119.29120.62123.48yoy203-91712产量（万吨）141.08152.37159.92172.00175.00180.00销量（万吨）142.08149.85161.00158.00163.00168.00产销率100.798.3100.791.993.193.3平均售价（元/吨）767575276355755074007350单位成本（元/吨）681767105994677066506600成本（亿元）96.85100.5596.51106.97108.40110.88毛利（亿元）12.2012.245.8012.3212.2312.60yoy1030-53112-13毛利率11.210.95.710.310.110.2毛利占比34.032.415.318.517.818.0DTY收入（亿元）65.0871.1477.8574.3975.6578.59yoy2299-424产量（万吨）74.0783.45101.3792.0095.0099.00销量（万吨）76.5880.8498.5486.0089.0093.00产销率103.496.997.293.593.793.9平均售价（元/吨）849888007900865085008450单位成本（元/吨）803281177407785077207670成本（亿元）61.5165.6272.9967.5168.7171.33毛利（亿元）3.575.524.866.886.947.25yoy11855-124214毛利率5.57.86.29.29.29.2毛利占比10.014.612.810.310.110.4涤纶短纤收入（亿元）76.0885.5378.3583.70102.30111.35yoy14012-87229产量（万吨）117.31127.01130.67127.00155.00170.00销量（万吨）116.62130.40130.84124.00155.00170.00产销率99.4102.7100.197.6100.0100.0平均售价（元/吨）652465595988675066006550单位成本（元/吨）636963775680619060506000成本（亿元）74.2883.1674.3276.7693.78102.00毛利（亿元）1.802.374.036.948.529.35yoy1693270722310毛利率2.42.85.18.38.38.4毛利占比5.06.310.610.412.413.4PTA收入（亿元）25.5123.4498.83202.55201.84204.32yoy32-832210501产量（万吨）49.0751.17239.28410.00420.00425.00销量（万吨）49.4348.47236.39385.00396.00405.00产销率100.794.798.893.994.395.3平均售价（元/吨）516148364181526150975045单位成本（元/吨）517948984218512249504900成本（亿元）25.6023.7499.72197.20196.02198.45毛利（亿元）-0.09-0.30-0.895.355.825.87yoy////91毛利率-0.4-1.3-0.92.62.92.9毛利占比///8.08.58.4其他收入（亿元）24.3828.0134.4730.0131.9934.03yoy-391523-1376成本（亿元）21.4425.2831.1025.5127.1928.92毛利（亿元）2.942.733.374.504.805.11yoy8-7233476毛利率12.19.79.815.015.015.0毛利占比8.27.28.96.87.07.3总营收（亿元）614.68670.89715.57827.19853.25877.14yoy21971633成本（亿元）578.81633.14677.57760.59784.39807.13营业成本/营业收入94.294.494.791.991.992.0毛利（亿元）35.8737.7538.0066.6068.8670.02yoy90517532毛利率5.85.65.38.18.18.0Wind，司公告 和预测（原值为），PE11.9/11.1/10.8X，维持“优于大市”评级。风险提示：项目投产不及预期；原材料价格上涨；下游需求不及预期等。表2：可比公司估值表公司公司投资收盘价总市值EPSPEPB代码名称评级（元）（百万元）2025 2026E2027E20252026E 2027E(MRQ)601233.SH桐昆股份无评级26.0061,854.040.86 3.0130.29.5 1.5000703.SZ恒逸石化优于大市19.2073,373.990.08 2.78240.07.0 2.5603225.SH新凤鸣优于大市20.4234,254.420.69 1.8529.611.9 11.11.6数来源：Wind 注数据至2026年8月27日。财务预测与估值资产负债表（百万元）202420252026E2027E2028E利润表（百万元）202420252026E2027E2028E现金及现金等价物10173854289421209115893营业收入6709171557827198532587714应收款项11401163141414321466营业成本6331467758760617843980715存货净额44525870586961156502营业税金及附加189227244254266其他流动资产9891381139514481554销售费用106118134138143流动资产合计1676416956176242109125418管理费用711784916931957固定资产3166735622355743344831179研发费用12091350155515841644无形资产及其他18162195208619761866财务费用623394691611510投资性房地产23721469146914691469投资收益6322394134长期股权投资426533601677760资产减值及公允价值变动(116)(208)(122)(149)(160)资产总计5304656774573545866060692其他收入(891)(1056)(1555)(1584)(1644)短期借款及交易性金融负债1622719508183811712317422营业利润12041034303632613355应付款项59435736647868876929营业外净收支5356565555其他流动负债29533633305536693781利润总额12571089309233163410流动负债合计2512328877279132767928132所得税费用15770464497512长期借款及应付债券93298532853285328532少数股东损益(0)1444其他长期负债13191347157617081838归属于母公司净利润11001018262428142895长期负债合计106489880101091024110371现金流量表（百万元）202420252026E2027E2028E负债合计3577138757380223791938502净利润11001018262428142895少数股东权益1949515355资产减值准备27692(10)(11)股东权益1725717969192812068822135折旧摊销29783479373839494083负债和股东权益总计5304656774573545866060692公允价值变动损失116208122149160财务费用623394691611510关键财务与估值指标202420252026E2027E2028E营运资本变动2697(359)131828(254)每股收益0.720.671.721.851.90其它(27)(69)(0)1214每股红利0.770.600.860.920.95经营活动现金流68914347661877416885每股净资产11.3211.7912.6513.5714.52资本开支0(7198)(3705)(1852)(1852)ROIC2.202.18677其它投资现金流(7)10(4)(0)2ROE6.385.67141413投资活动现金流(59)(7294)(3778)(1928)(1934)毛利率65888权益性融资(71)28000EBITMargin22555负债净变化(1144)(884)000EBITDAMargin77999支付股利、利息(1178)(917)(1312)(1407)(1447)收入增长971633其它融资现金流(58)4889(1128)(1257)299净利润增长率1-715873融资活动现金流(4771)1316(2440)(2664)(1149)资产负债率67686665