后量子密码学的战略准备

StrategicpreparationforPost-Quantum

Cryptography

Thethreatofquantumcomputing,theimplementationofpost-quantumcryptography(PQC),andstrategiesforasecureandeffectivetransition.

Post-QuantumCybersecurity

Index

Summary 3

Introduction 4

Theroleofcryptographyindataprotectionanddigitalsovereigntyinthepost-quantumera 5

Impactoncurrentcryptography 5

Keyquantumalgorithms:ShorandGrover 6

Thethreatofquantumattack:impactassessmentandstrategicreadiness 6

Whatisquantumcomputing 6

Operationalimplicationsforbusinesses 8

Strategicimplicationsandbusinesssovereigntyinthefaceofquantumcomputing 9

Post-quantumcryptography(PQC)asatechnicalandstrategicanswer 10

PQCtopreservelong-termsecurity 10

StandardizationbyNISTandotherentities 10

Algorithmsselectedforstandardization 11

Significanceofstandardization 11

EUroleandinternationalparticipation 11

Pillarsforaproactiveandgradualtransition 12

Pillar1.Identify:Cryptographicinventoryandriskassessment 13

Pillar2.Protect:Implementationofsolutionsandsafetransition 16

Pillar3.Governance:Implementationandongoingmonitoring 20

Industryusecases 23

Financialsector 23

Conclusionsandrecommendationsforsecuringthedigitalfutureinthequantumera 25

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Summary

Cryptographyisessentialfordigitalsecurityandsovereignty.However,thecurrentasymmetriccryptographicsystemswillbevulnerablewithquantumcomputing.Thiscallsforatransition

topost-quantumcryptography(PQC).

Thispaperoutlinestherisks,transitionstrategies,andrecommendedactionstoprotectinformationinthequantumera.

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Introduction

Digitalsovereigntyiskeytoensuringthe

independenceandcontrolofinfrastructuresanddata.Thisprincipleencompassesoperational,

technologicalanddatamanagementdimensions,andformsthebasisfortheautonomyof

organizationsandstates.

Cryptographyisthetechnologicalbasisof

sovereigntythatprovidesthiscontroland

autonomy.Itensurestheconfidentiality,integrity,andavailabilityofdata,fundamentaltothe

functioningofcompanies,governments,andsocieties.

However,thissecurityparadigmfacesa

significantchangewiththeadvanceofquantumcomputing.TheQ-Daymoment,whenquantumcomputerscancompromisecurrentsystems,

couldcomein10to20years,ifnotsooner.

Althoughthereisnoexactconsensus,andthis

projectiondependsonprogressinquantum

computingandthescalabilityofqubits,this

requirespreparationtoensurethesecurityofdataandcommunicationnetworks.

Post-quantumcryptography(PQC)emergesasatechnicalresponse.Itdevelopsencryption

algorithmsresistanttoattacksbyclassicalandquantumcomputers,basedonmathematical

problemsthatquantumcomputerscannotsolveefficiently.Thisprovidesalevelofsecurity

adaptedtothequantumera.

Theadoptionofpost-quantumcryptographyisbeyondthepurelytechnical.Itisastrategic

decisionwithimplicationsforthesovereigntyofdigitalinfrastructures.Organizations,companies,andgovernmentsensurethattheirdataand

infrastructuresareprotectedagainstpresentandfuturethreatsbyimplementingPQC.Indoingso,theyreaffirmtheirabilitytooperate

independently,maintainingcontrolovertheirdigitalassetsandpreservingtheirsovereignty.

Whatwouldbethe

consequences

ifsomeoneinterceptedandstoredyour

company'smost

sensitivedataand

decrypteditin2030?

Thisdocumentlaysoutacalltoactionfor

organizations,companies,andnationalagencies.ItisurgenttoprepareforthetransitiontoPQC

now.Delayingthisactioncouldhavesignificant

consequences,includingexposureofsensitive

data,disruptionofoperations,andregulatorynon-compliance.

Post-quantumcryptographyisdeployableonconventionalhardwareandsoftware.

Thismakesitpossibletostartthetransitiontodaytoensuretheresilienceandreliabilityofthedigitalinfrastructureinthefuture.

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Theroleofcryptographyindataprotectionanddigitalsovereigntyinthepost-quantumera

Encryptionprotectsdatafromunauthorizedaccessandensuresdigitalsovereigntyinstorage,

communications,andcloud.Itpreventssurveillanceorexternalinterference,safeguardingcommunicationsfromgovernments,organizationsormaliciousactors.

RegulationssuchasRGPDinEuroperequireencryptiontoensureuserprivacyandpersonaldata

protection.Inaddition,encryptionprotectscriticalinfrastructuressuchastelecommunications,energyandfinancialservices,safeguardingoperationaldataandcontrolsystems.

Itiscrucialtopreparenowandmigratetonewquantum

cryptographicalgorithmstopreservedataprotectionanddigitalsovereigntyinthelongterm.

Impactoncurrentcryptography

Themostsignificantpotentialimpactofquantumcomputingfromacybersecuritypointofviewisitsabilityto

compromisethesecurityof

manyasymmetric(publickey)cryptographicalgorithms

usedtoday.

•Algorithmsatrisk:RSA,DSA,ECDSAandothersbasedonthedifficultyoflargeintegerfactoringorthediscrete

logarithmproblemarevulnerabletoattackbya

cryptographicallyrelevantquantumcomputer.These

algorithmsarethebasisforthesecurityofprotocolssuchasTLS/SSL(usedin

HTTPS

),SSH,digitalsignaturesandmanypublickeyinfrastructures(PKI).

•Symmetriccryptography(AES,SHA-256):Although

quantumcomputingaffectssymmetriccryptographythroughalgorithmssuchasGrover's,theimpactislesssevere.An

increaseinkeysizewouldberequiredtomaintainan

equivalentlevelofsecurity.Forexample,AES-256offers128bitsofsecurityagainstquantumattacks(accordingto

Grover'salgorithm),whichisequivalenttotheclassicalsecurityofAES-128.Inquantumattacks,AESrequiresanincreaseinkeylengthtomaintainitssecuritylevel.

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Thethreatofthe'Harvestnow,decryptlater'strategy

MaliciousactorshaveadoptedtheHarvestNow,DecryptLater(HNDL),or'StoreNow,DecryptLater',attackstrategyasalong-termtactic.

HNDLinvolvesthemasscollectionofencrypteddatausingtraditionaltechniquesforstorageanddecryptionwithcryptographicallyrelevantquantumcomputers.Thisaffectsinformationwithalongperiodofconfidentiality,suchasgovernmentsecrets,intellectualpropertyormedical

records,amongothers.

HNDLattacksofmassivecollectionofencrypteddatafromAPT(AdvancedPersistentThreat)groupslinkedtonation-stateshavebeenidentified,includinginterceptionofcommunicationsexploitingvulnerabilitiesinVPNnetworksorTLSchannels,exfiltrationofcloudstorageswithencryptedinformation,ortrafficredirection.

Keyquantumalgorithms:ShorandGrover

•Shor'salgorithm:Thisalgorithm,developedbyPeterShor,isthemainthreattocurrentasymmetriccryptography.Itallowsfactoringlargeintegersinpolynomialtime,asignificantadvanceoverthe

bestclassicalalgorithms.ThisinvalidatesthesecurityofRSAandsimilaralgorithmsandmeansthatdataencryptedtodaywiththeseschemescouldbedecryptedinthefuture.

•Grover'salgorithm:LovGrover'salgorithmexponentiallyreducesthesearchcomplexitytosquareroot,whichmeansthatAES-128wouldprovideonly64bitsofsecurityagainstquantumattacks.Atleast256-bitkeysarerecommendedtomaintainsecurity.

Thethreatofquantumattack:impactassessmentandstrategicreadiness

Whatisquantumcomputing

Quantumcomputingrepresentsadifferentcomputationalparadigmthanclassicalcomputing.Insteadof

bits,whichrepresenta0ora1,itusesqubits.Usingprinciplesofquantummechanicssuchassuperpositionandentanglement,qubitscanrepresent0,1oracombinationofboth.

Thiscapabilityallowsquantumcomputerstoprocessanexponentiallygreatervolumeofinformationthanclassicalcomputersforcertainmathematicalproblems.

Quantumcomputingisnotuniversallysuperiortoclassicalcomputing.Itsadvantageliesinitsabilitytoefficientlyaddressproblemsofhighmathematicalcomplexityindomainssuchasmolecularsimulation,combinatorialoptimizationand,ofparticularrelevancetothispaper,cryptography.

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TheNationalInstituteofStandardsandTechnology(NIST)recommendsphasingoutRSA-2048andECC-256by2030,withcompleteinvalidationby2035.Aspartofthetransitiontopost-quantumcryptography,NISTurgesorganizationstomigratetoquantum-resistantalgorithmsbeforethosedates.

Imagineagiantmazewheretheexitrepresentsthesolutiontoacomplexproblem,suchasdecipheringacryptographiccode.

Aclassicalcomputerwouldtrytosolvethemazebytryingeachpathonebyone,whichcouldtakeyearsiftherearemillionsofpossiblecombinations.

Incontrast,aquantumcomputercanexploremultiplepathsinparallel,thankstothesuperpositionprinciple.Inaddition,quantumentanglementallowscorrelatingtheresultsofdifferentquantumstates,whichmakesiteasiertofindthecorrectsolutionmoreefficientlyin

certaintypesofproblems.

Thismeansthat,inspecificcasessuchaslargeintegerfactorization(keyinRSA)ordiscretelogarithm

computation(usedinDSA,ECDSA),aquantum

computerrunningShor'salgorithmcouldsolvethemmuchfasterthananyknownclassicalmethod.

However,notallciphersarevulnerable.Algorithmsbasedonpost-quantumcryptographyhavebeendesignedtoresisttheseattacks,evenagainstquantumcomputers.

Althoughquantumcomputerscannotbreakallciphersorsolveallproblemsfaster,theirquantumparallelism

capabilityposesaprofoundchallengetocurrent

digitalsecurity,especiallyforasymmetriccryptography.

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Operationalimplicationsforbusinesses

Thequantumthreatpresentsasignificant

strategicandoperationalrisktoanyorganization,entityorenterprisethatreliesoncryptographytoprotectitsdataandcommunications.Someoftheimplicationsinclude:

Risksandvulnerabilities

•Riskofdataexposure:Information

encryptedwithalgorithmsvulnerableto

quantumcomputingcouldbedecryptedinthefuture,compromisingsensitivedata,

tradesecrets,intellectualpropertyandconfidentialcommunications.Thisiscriticalfordatawithalong-lifecycle.

•Protectionagainstexternal

interference:Strongencryptioniscriticaltomaintainsovereigntyoverdatain

storageandintransit,especiallyincloudenvironments.Encryptionprotectsagainstsurveillanceandunauthorizedaccessbygovernments,organizationsorcyber

criminals.

Operationalandstrategicchallenges

•Operationaldisruption:Replacing

currentcryptographicsystemsrepresentsanoperationalchallenge.Migrationto

post-quantumcryptographywillrequirecarefulplanning,investmentand

managementtoavoidservicedisruptions.

Keyareasofapplication

•Criticalinfrastructureprotection:Post-quantumencryptionprotectscritical

infrastructuresuchas

telecommunications,energyandfinancialsystems,safeguardingoperationaldataandcontrolsystems.

•Trusteddigitalservices:Organizationscanoffersecureandprivacy-friendly

digitalservicesbycombiningpost-

quantumencryptionwithAIalgorithms,reinforcingtheircommitmenttodigitalsovereignty.

Keyareasofapplication

•Criticalinfrastructureprotection:Post-quantumencryptionprotectscritical

infrastructuresuchas

telecommunications,energyandfinancialsystems,safeguardingoperationaldataandcontrolsystems.

•Trusteddigitalservices:Organizationscanoffersecureandprivacy-friendly

digitalservicesbycombiningpost-

quantumencryptionwithAIalgorithms,reinforcingtheircommitmenttodigitalsovereignty.

•Costofinaction:Delayingpreparationforpost-quantumcryptographycouldresultinhighercostsinthefuture,bothin

remediationofvulnerabilitiesandpotentiallossesfromsecuritybreaches.

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Strategicimplicationsandbusinesssovereigntyinthefaceofquantumcomputing

Inthecontextofsecuritybasedoncryptographicalgorithms,quantumcomputingpresentsrisksandchallengesthatneedtobeaddressedproactively:

•Commoncryptographicalgorithmswillbecomevulnerable,puttingallprotectedinformationatrisk.Itisessentialto

prioritizethetransitiontopost-quantumcryptography(PQC),whichprotectsdatainthequantumera.

•-ThemigrationtoPQCwillrequire

investmentsintechnologies,software,hardwareand,fundamentally,instafftrainingtoensureasecuretransition.

•Quantumcomputingmustbeintegratedintotheenterpriseriskmanagement

framework,withregularassessmentstoidentifyvulnerabilitiesandmeasure

progresstowardPQCadoption.

•Currentregulatoryrecommendationswillevolvetowardrequirementsforresilient

cryptography,whichdemandsanticipationandpreparationtomitigaterisks.

•Crypto-agilitywillbekeytoadapting

cryptographicsystemsinthefaceofnewthreatsandfuturevulnerabilities.

•Strongcryptographicgovernance,withfullvisibilityofdigitalassets,ensures

regulatorycomplianceandefficientimplementation.

Digitalandtechnologicalsovereigntywillbe

crucialatthestrategicleveltoachievingbusinessobjectives:

•Operationalsovereignty:Necessarytooptimizeefficiency,ensurethesecurityofcommunications,IoT,AI,andcloud

infrastructures.

•Technologysovereignty:Vitalfor

resilienceandindependenceofdigitalinfrastructures,aswellasforregulatorycomplianceandoperationalautonomy.

•AIanddatasovereignty:Protects

nationalinterests,securityandprivacy,

avoidingexternalinfluencesandensuringdecisionsbasedonreliableinformation.

CompaniesshouldprepareinternallyandevaluatevendorsandthirdpartiestoensurethattheirexternaldependenciesdonotcompromisethetransitiontoPQC.PreparingforQ-Day(theday

whenquantumcomputingwillbefullyfunctional)willsignificantlyreducecostsandremediationrisksifacteduponearly.

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Post-quantumcryptography(PQC)

asatechnicalandstrategicanswer

Post-quantumcryptography(PQC),orquantum

computing-resistant

cryptography,involvesthe

developmentofcryptographicalgorithmsdesignedtoresistattacksbyclassicaland

quantumcomputers.

However,post-quantumcryptographydoesnotrelyonquantum

computers.PQCusesclassicalmathematicalalgorithmson

conventionalhardware,whilequantumcomputingusesQKDforkeyexchangeandQRNGtogeneraterandomnumbers.Thesealgorithmsareconsideredtoberesistanttoattacksbyquantumcomputers.

PQCtopreservelong-termsecurity

PQCisimportantbecauseinformationneedstobeprotectedwithalong-termconfidentialityhorizon.Itisdifficulttopredictwhentherewillbeacryptographicallyrelevantquantumcomputercapableofbreakingcurrentcryptography,buttheconsensusamongexpertsandtheNISTforecastisthatquantumcomputingwillweaken

existingasymmetriccryptographybytheendofthisdecade.

Replacingasymmetriccryptographywithquantum-securecryptographyrequiresproactiveaction.MigrationtoPQCmustbeapriority.

Informationencryptedtodaywithvulnerablealgorithmscouldbedecryptedinthefuturewithsevere

consequencesbecauseofthis.ThetransitiontoPQCisthereforenotjustatechnicalissue,butalong-termriskmanagementstrategy.

StandardizationbyNISTandotherentities

StandardizationiskeytoPQCadoptionandinteroperability.TheUSNationalInstituteofStandardsandTechnology(NIST)hasbeenleadingaprocessofevaluationandstandardizationofPQCalgorithmssince2016.

Thisprocess,structuredinseveralrounds,hasinvolvedtheglobalcryptographiccommunityintheanalysisandevaluationofdozensofproposals.NISThasbeenthemaindriverintheidentificationand

standardizationofPQCalgorithms,throughitsPost-QuantumCryptographyProject.

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Algorithmsselectedforstandardization

NISTpublishedthefirstpost-quantum

cryptographyalgorithmsinAugust2024,initiatingprotectionagainstquantumcomputing.These

algorithms,chosenbytheglobalcryptographiccommunityforstandardization,allowustobeginthepost-quantumtransitionnow:

•CRYSTALS-Kyber(KEM):Basedon

latticestructuresandtheLearningWithErrors(LWE)problem,forgeneralkeyencapsulationuse.

•CRYSTALS-Dilithium(Digital

Signature):Alsobasedonlatticestructures,forgeneraldigital

signatureuse.

•FALCON(DigitalSignature):specificallyoptimizedforreducedsignaturesizes

comparedtoDilithium.

•SPHINCS+(DigitalSignature):Asa

hash-baseddigitalsignatureoption,butwithaconsiderablylargersignaturesize.

NISThaspublishedtheselectionofthesefirstalgorithmsforofficialstandardsforquantumcomputing-resistantcryptographyandis

consideringstandardizationofadditionalalgorithms.

Significanceofstandardization

StandardizationofPQCalgorithmsensuresthattheselectedalgorithmshavebeenevaluatedandfacilitatestheintegrationofsystemsand

applications,promotingtheirglobaladoptionbyproviding:

•Trust:theinternationalcryptographiccommunityhasevaluatedtheselectedalgorithms.

•Interoperability:Standardizationenablesinteroperabilitybetweendifferentsystemsandapplications.

•Guidanceforadoption:Providesaclearroadmapfororganizationslookingto

migratetoPQC,enablingthemtoselectalgorithmswithconfidence.

EUroleandinternationalparticipation

Otherorganizations,suchasISOandETSI,arealsoinvolvedinPQCstandardization,ensuringglobaland

coordinatedadoption.TheEuropeanUnionAgencyforCyberSecurity(ENISA)alsoplaysanimportantrole,providingguidanceandrecommendationsonthetransitiontoPQCintheEuropeancontext.

ENISAworkswithNISTandotherinternationalorganizationstopromotetheadoptionofglobalstandardsandbestpracticesinpost-quantumcryptography.ReportsandrecommendationsonPQC,including

algorithmmaturityassessmentsandmigrationguidelines,havebeenpublished.

NIST'sstandardizationofquantumcomputing-resistantcryptographyalgorithmsmarksthebeginningofthetransitiontoPQC.Researchinpost-quantumcryptographycontinuesanditislikelythatnewalgorithmswillbedevelopedandstandardized.

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Pillarsforaproactiveandgradualtransition

Thetransitiontopost-quantumcryptographyisacomplexprocessthatmustbeapproachedstrategically,inphasesandwithdetailedplanning.Itisnotjustareplacementofalgorithms,butaprogressiveredesignofthesecurityinfrastructuretoensureresiliencetothequantumthreat.

Thestrategyshouldconsiderriskassessment,algorithmselection,phasedimplementationandcontinuousmonitoring,followingthreepillars:Identify,Protect,andGovern.

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Pillar1.Identify:Cryptographic

inventoryandriskassessment

Riskassessmentisa

continuousanddynamic

processthatshouldbe

integratedintoenterprise

informationsecurity

management.Itshouldcoverthefollowingkeyaspects:

Cryptographicassetinventory

Thefirststepistoidentifyanddocumentallcryptographicassetsintheorganizationtoassesstheirexposuretoquantumthreat.This

includes:

•Cryptographickeys,includingtheirtype,lengthandalgorithm,usedinsystems,applicationsanddevices.

•Digitalcertificatesidentifyingtheirissuer,expirationdate,anddependentsystemsandapplications.

•Cryptographiclibraries,theirversionsandtheapplicationsthatusethem.

•Externaldependenciesandthird-partyservicesthatusevulnerablecryptography.

•Cryptographicprotocolsused,suchasTLS/SSL,SSH,IPsec,etc.,includingtheirversions.

•Contextofusetoknowwhatandwhereitisbeingused.

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Implementinganautomatedcryptographicinventoryiscriticaltounderstandingthelevelofriskexposureandprioritizingthemigrationprocesstopost-quantumcryptography(PQC).

Itisrecommendedthatspecializedstaticcodeanalysisandkeydiscoverytoolsbeusedtoensureanaccurateandcomprehensiveassessmentofcryptographicassets.

Thisanalysisshouldincludethedetectionofinadequateencryptionpractices,suchastheuseofobsoletecryptographicalgorithms,insecureparametersorkeyswithinsufficientkeylengths.

Riskanalysisandvulnerabilitymanagement

Onceyouhaveacryptographicinventory,thenextstepistoassessrisksandmanagevulnerabilitiesbasedon:

•Dependenciestodeterminewhichsystems,applicationsandbusinessprocessesrelatetoeachcryptographicasset.

•Criticalityaccordingtothetypeofinformationprotectedandtheimpactofitsexposure.

•Vulnerabilitytocurrentattackssuchas'HarvestNow,DecryptLater'andquantumattacks,suchasthoseusingRSAorECCwithinadequatekeylengths.

•PrioritytomigratethemostcriticalassetstoPQCfirstaccordingtotheirrisk,probabilityofoccurrenceandpotentialimpact.

ItiscriticaltointegraterelevantITsources,suchasconfigurationmanagementsystems(CMDB),networklogs,andapplications,toprovidethenecessarycontextfortheidentifiedassets.Thisfacilitatesacorrectcorrelationbetweencryptographicassetsandtheiroperationaldependencies,thusensuringamore

accurateandactionableriskassessment.

AtthisstageitiscriticaltoaligntherelevanceofPQCwiththestrategicobjectivesofthe

enterprise.Planningmustbemeticulous,carefullyprioritizingwhattoaddressfirst,aschangesrequiresignificantimplementationandadaptationtimes.

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Crypto-agilitystrategyandroadmap

Theriskanalysisculminatesinaninitialtransformationplanthatshould:

•Definearchitecturalprinciplesforsystemsresilienttocryptographicchanges,ensuringtheabilitytoreplacealgorithmsagilely.

•Modernizecryptographicinfrastructuretoensurecompatibilityandreduceoperationalrisks.

•UpgradeservicesandapplicationstointegratewithPQCcryptography.

•Implementprotectionmeasuresfordatainuseandatrest,usingconfidentialcomputingandkeylifecyclemanagementtechnologies.

•Defineadetailedroadmapwithshort-andlong-termobjectives,includingspecificmetricsandtargets.

TelefónicaTechpositionsitselfasa

comprehensivepartner,capableofproviding

expertguidancetohelporganizationsdefineandexecutethistechnologytransformationplan.Weoffersolutionstailoredtothespecificneedsof

eachcompany,withextensiveexperienceinthefieldofcrypto-agilityandadeepunderstandingofthestrategicobjectivesofthebusiness.

Organizations,companies,andpublic

administrationsensurethattheintegrationofpost-quantumcryptography(PQC)iseffective,secureandalignedwithbusinessobjectives,

maximizingthereturnoninvestmentandstrengtheningoperationalresilience.

Theapproachshouldbeprogressive,focusingfirstoncriticalassetsand

ensuringoperationalcontinuityduringthetransition.

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Pillar2.Protect:Implementationofsolutionsandsafetransition

Riskassessmentisa

continuousanddynamic

processthatmustbe

integratedintoacompany'sinformat