大摩-能源与油轮：油轮与燃料-“黄金时代”

MorganstanleyRESEARCH

September10,202612:53AMGMT

EnergyandTankers|AsiaPacific

Tanker&Fuel:AGoldenAge

ThetankershippingbullcycleandGoldenAgeinrefiningare

feedingintoeachother.Durabilitycouldsurprisepositively,withupto40%upsideseentoStreetestimates,ascapacitytightnesspersistsforthetwosegmentsevenbeyond2027.

KeyTakeaways

Tankerfreighthaverisen3x(4.7xabovemid-cycle)anddieselcrackshaveincreased4xYTD.

Weexpecta35%highernewmid-cycleinrefinerymarginsandsee20-30%upsidetocurrentVLCC2-yeartimecharter(TC)rates.

Wethinkbottlenecksoflimitedsparecapacityandpermanentscrappage/

shutdownsarekeytodurabilityoftheupcycleinbothtankerfreightandrefining.

DisciplinedcapitalallocationbyandoutsideChinaforrefiners;tankernewordersdeliveringin2027-28maynotbeenoughtomeetshipmentdemandgrowth.

WerecommendCSEH/AandCMEStoplaytankers;S-Oil,ThaiOil,IdemitsuKosanandCosmotoplayrefiners.

ThebottlenecksandEnergySecurity:EnergySecurity(EnergySecurityandAI:SupercycleRecharges)andcapacityscarcityiskeytopricingpowerforbothfuel

refinersandtankershipping.Inrefining,twonewrefineriesneedtobebuilt

annually,butonlyonehasbeengettingbuilt.Similarlyintankershipping,effectivecapacityaddscouldbeshortbynearlyafifthbelowtankercapacityneeds,thoughnewordersarerising.FuelrefinerscapturedUS$10-12/bblofadditionalmarginsin1H26,whiletankerownerscapturedUS$3-3.5/bblinupsideasenergysupplychainstighten.

Exhibit1:GlobalRefining:TheGoldenAgeinperspective

Exhibit2:TankersSupplybottleneck:Operatorslbargainingpowerand

scrappingcandidates

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates

IDEA

MoRGANSTANLEyAsIA(SINGApoRE)PTE.+MayankMaheshwari

EquityAnalyst

Mayank.Maheshwari@

+656834-6719

MoRGANSTANLEyAsIALImITED+QianleiFan,CFA

EquityAnalyst

Qianlei.Fan@

+8522239-1875

MoRGANSTANLEy&Co.lNTERNATIoNALpLc丿SEouLBRANcH+YoungSukShin

EquityAnalyst

Young.Shin@

+822399-4994

MoRGANSTANLEyMUFGSEcuRITIEsCo.丿LTD.+ReijiOgino

EquityAnalyst

Reiji.Ogino@

+8136836-8930

INDiAOiL&GAs

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewIn-Line

ASEANENERGyANDMATERiALs

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewAttractive

HoNGKoNG/CHiNATRANspoRTATioN&INFRAsTRucTuRE

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewIn-Line

S.KoREAENERGy&MATERiALs

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewIn-Line

Exhibit3:Strongfueldemandand

dislocationshavetightenedanagingfleetofclean-producttradeflows丿boostingtankerearnings

(US$/day)

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

-50,000

150

120

90

60

30

0

TankerDayRates(TimeCharterEquivalent)

Diesel-Crude(RS)

(US$/bbl)

Sep-2021

Jan-2022

May-2022

Sep-2022

Jan-2023

May-2023

Sep-2023

Jan-2024

May-2024

Sep-2024

Jan-2025

May-2025

Sep-2025

Jan-2026

May-2026

Sep-2026

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

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Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

GoldenAgeinRefiningandTankerTightness

TankerShippingBullCycle:Energysecurityisdrivingrestocking,strategicstockpilinganddiversificationofcrudeandfuelimportsawayfromtheMiddleEast,increasingboth

seabornevolumesandvoyagedistances.Meanwhile,effectivetankersupplyremains

constrainedaslongerroutes,geopoliticaldisruptions,floatingstoragedemand,anagingfleetandtighterenvironmentalregulationsreducevesselavailability.Tankerdamages

duringconflicts(CNA,9Sep2026)arerapidlyerodingeffectivecapacity.About6%of

VLCCsarealreadymorethan25yearsoldandanother10%areapproachingretirementage,scrappingisrunningwellbelowhistoricalnormsandeffectivecapacitygrowthis

likelytolagtonne-miledemandgrowth.Astonne-miledemandgrowsfasterthanfleet

capacity,tankermarketsarelikelytoremainstructurallytight,supportingelevatedfreightratesbeyond2027(seealsoTankerShipping;BullCycletoExtendBeyond202717Aug2026).

RefiningGoldenAge:Fuelconsumptionhassurprisedoverthepastfiveyearswhile

meaningfulnewcapacityremainslimitedevenuntil2029.Withspareprocessingcapacitylargelyabsorbed,supplydisruptionsaretranslatingintoincreasinglysharperspikesinfuelcracksandproductspreads.Webelievethemarketoverestimatestheimpactof

announcedcapacityadditionsandunderestimatesthecombinedeffectofresilientfuel

demand,energysecurity-drivenstockbuildingandtighteningglobalproductbalances.Webelievetheresultisastructurallytighterrefiningsystem,supportingstrongermargins

andahighermid-cyclethaninvestorscurrentlyexpect(GlobalRefining:The'GoldenAge'goesGlobal,5Aug2026).

kbpd

4,000

US$/bbl

SingaporeComplexRefiningbenchmark(RH)

IncrementalDemand

IncrementalSupply(Netofclosures)

Lowerpricesspurred

globaldemand

growth

Exhibit4:Incrementaldemandof~2.5mbpdoverthenextthreeyearscomparedto~1.2mnbpdcapacitygrowthhighlightsthetighteningsupplydynamicsfortheindustry

(199)

951

438

45

13.0

Supplygrowthbetween2020-23

slowedamidstprojectdelaysand

refinerycancellations

Strongreboundfollowingtherecession

Producttightness,limited

capacitygrowthanddemandreboundtokeepmarginshigh

Asianfinancialcrisis

DemandboomfromChina(+~1mbpd)

11.0

2,600

SurplusCreated

9.0

1,200

7.0

5.0

(200)

Demandrecovers

abovePre-Covid

Levelsin2023

growthsince2003

3.0

Globalfinancialcrisis

(1,600)

Demandchallengesin1H2020withCovid2019

Hormuzcrisis,limitedcrudeflowsimpacting>5mbpdofcapacities

1.0

(3,000)

-1.0

□

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026e

2027e

2028e

2029e

Source:Companydata,BP,EIA,CIEC,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3

RESEARCH

Morganstanley

Exhibit5:Incrementalsupplybyregion(2026-29e)

kbpd

2,750

2,200

1,650

1,100

550

0

IncrementalGlobalRefiningSupply-2025-29e

1,235

438

312

301

666

626

601

392

377

149

60

India

Africa

Middle

East

Americas

Europe

China

Others

Americas

Europe

China

2029e

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates

Exhibit7:Asiagrossrefiningmarginstobesustainedabovemid-cycleasgasolineanddieselcrackssettlehigherpost

conflictandmultiplefuelrefineriesalsoseetailwindfromlowerfueloilproductionduetohardwareupgrades

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Current

2026e

2027e

2028e

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

▲+78%$12.7▲+1%$12.9

▲+34%$15.7▲+94%$23.5▼-23%$12.1

$7.2

$11.7

CrackSpreads(US$/bbl)

DieselGasoline(RS)

▲+24%$15.9

Source:Bloomberg,Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearchestimates

IDEA

Exhibit6:IncrementaldemanddriversareIndia,Europe,ASEAN,andtheAmericas

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

21

IncrementalRefinedProductsdemand2025-29e(kbpd)

109

15

538

48

75

109

192

India

Europe

ASEAN

SouthAmerica

US

China

Others

IncrementalDemand

Source:BP,EIA,CIEC,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates

Exhibit8:Weseeindustryoperatingratestrendinghigherasdemandresiliencecontinuestosurprise,capacityadditionslagandnear-termsupplydislocationskeepsuppliesconstrained

79.4%

80.1%

79.8%

75%

80.2%

80.6%

15.0

9.0

8.1

7.1

5.6

83.0%

81.2%

79.4%

77.6%

75.8%

74.0%

10.78.8

5.3

20.0

16.4

12.8

9.2

5.6

2.0

WeightedAverageGRM*GlobalRefiningUtilisation(RH)

9.68.3

6.8

17.2

14.3

10.5

10.4

12.0

2.2

6.8

8.0

8.0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

1H26

2026e

2027e

2028e

*WeightedAverage:CapacityweightedaverageofUSSixmajorrefinersandAsiaSingaporeComplexmargins

Source:Companydata,BP,EIA,CIEC,Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates

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Exhibit9:

Forwardconsensusestimateshaverisen~34%onaverageacrossglobalrefinersandweseefurtherupgradecycleasmarginsettleatnewhigherlevels

3.9

3.5

3.4

3.4

GlobalRefining2yearForwardConsensus(US$/share)

202320242025202620272028

3.02.3

2.2

4.0

3.53.6

Sep-21Mar-22Sep-22Mar-23Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24Mar-25Sep-25Mar-26Sep-26

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

5.2

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit10:Tankershipping:crudeshipmentdemandvs.VLCCsupplyin2027-2028

DemandSupply

Non-effectivecapacity

Non-effective

capacity

Potentialdemolition

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

Source:Clarksons,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:Supply:growthofVLCCs.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

Exhibit11:Weseestrongdemandtailwindsinthenext3-5years

1MOREBARRELS

3LOWERPRODUCTIVITY

2MOREMILES

5%sourceshift→+6.3%ton-mile

~1.4bnbblextrastorageneedin

VLCCcapacityinfloatingstorage:

4%-12%

demand

×

×

Asiabefore2030

USG→Ningbo:110vs.45days

Refineryexpansion+strategicrestockingincrease

seabornecargovolumes.

Floatingstorageandmorecomplexlogisticsreduce

effectivevesselavailability.

DiversifyingawayfromMiddleEastsupplyabsorbs

shipsformateriallylonger.

RESULT→Tonne-miledemandcanrisefasterthanheadlineoilconsumption

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates

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Morganstanley

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IdEA

DisclosureSection

TheinformationandopinionsinMorganStanleyResearchwerepreparedoraredisseminatedbyMorganStanleyAsiaLimited(whichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontents)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.(Registrationnumber199206298Z)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)SecuritiesPteLtd(Registrationnumber200008434H),regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore(whichacceptslegalresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch),and/orMorganStanleyTaiwanLimitedand/orMorganStanley&CoInternationalplc,SeoulBranch,and/orMorganStanleyAustraliaLimited(A.B.N.67003734576,holderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.233742,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents),and/orMorganStanleyWealthManagementAustraliaPtyLtd(A.B.N.19009145555,holderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.240813,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents),and/orMorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimitedhavingCorporateIdentificationNo(CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305,regulatedbytheSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(“SEBI”)andholderoflicensesasaResearchAnalyst(SEBIRegistrationNo.INH000001105);StockBroker(SEBIStockBrokerRegistrationNo.INZ000244438),MerchantBanker(SEBIRegistrationNo.INM000011203),anddepositoryparticipantwithNationalSecuritiesDepositoryLimited(SEBIRegistrationNo.IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021)havingregisteredofficeatAltimus,Level39&40,PandurangBudhkarMarg,Worli,Mumbai400018,India;Telephoneno.+91-22-61181000;ComplianceOfficerDetails:Mr.TejarshiHardas,Tel.No.:+91-22-61181000orEmail:

tejarshi.hardas@

;Grievanceofficerdetails:Mr.TejarshiHardas,Tel.No.:+91-22-61181000orEmail:msic-compliance@whichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch,andtheiraffiliates(collectively,"MorganStanley").MorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimited(MSICPL)mayuseAItoolsinprovidingresearchservices.Allrecommendationscontainedhereinaremadebythedulyqualifiedresearchanalysts.

Forimportantdisclosures,stockpricechartsandequityratinghistoriesregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreport,pleaseseetheMorganStanleyResearchDisclosureWebsite

at/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch

,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY,10036USA.

Forvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithanyrecommendation,ratingorpricetargetreferencedinthisresearchreport,pleasecontacttheClientSupportTeamasfollows:US/Canada+1800303-2495;HongKong+8522848-5999;LatinAmerica+1718754-5444(U.S.);London+44(0)20-7425-8169;Singapore+656834-6860;Sydney+61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.AlternativelyyoumaycontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY10036USA.

AnalystCertification

Thefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:QianleiFan,CFA;MayankMaheshwari;ReijiOgino;YoungSukShin.

.

GlobalResearchConflictManagementPolicy

MorganStanleyResearchhasbeenpublishedinaccordancewithourconflictmanagementpolicy,whichisavailable

at/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.A

Portugueseversionofthepolicycanbefound

at.br

ImportantRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompanies

AsofAugust31,2026,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch:COSCOSHIPPINGEnergyTransportation,COSCOShippingHoldingsLtd,CosmoEnergyHoldings,KoreaElectricPower,LotteChemicalCorp,POSCO,SungKwangBendCoLtd,TKCorp,YTOExpressGroupCoLtd.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicoffering(or144Aoffering)ofsecuritiesofBOCAviation,CathayPacificAirways,CosmoEnergyHoldings,IdemitsuKosan.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAirChinaLimited,BOCAviation,CosmoEnergyHoldings,IdemitsuKosan,J&TGlobalExpressLtd,SamsungSDI,ThaiOilPublicCompany.

Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAirChinaLimited,AlamtriResourcesIndonesia,BOCAviation,CathayPacificAirways,ChinaEasternAirlines,CosmoEnergyHoldings,EcoproBM,IdemitsuKosan,IndoramaVenturesPCL,J&TGlobalExpressLtd,JDLogistics,Inc.,KeppelLtd,KoreaElectricPower,L&FCoLtd,LGChem,LGEnergySolution,LotteChemicalCorp,Oil&NaturalGasCorp.,PacificBasinShipping,PetronasChemicalsGroupBerhad,POSCO,PTTExploration&Production,PTTGlobalChemicals,PTTPublicCompany,RelianceIndustries,S.F.HoldingCoLtd,SamsungSDI,SeatriumLimited,SiamCement,SKInnovationCoLtd,SpringAirlines,ThaiOilPublicCompany,UnitedTractorsTbkPT.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforproductsandservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingservicesfromBangchakCorporationPublicCompany,BOCAviation,CathayPacificAirways,GAIL(India),HindustanPetroleum,J&TGlobalExpressLtd,KeppelLtd,LGChem,OrientOverseas(International)Ltd,PTTGlobalChemicals,PTTPublicCompany,RelianceIndustries,S-Oil,SamsungSDI,SiamCement,SKInnovationCoLtd,ThaiOilPublicCompany,UnitedTractorsTbkPT,ZTOExpress.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasprovidedorisprovidinginvestmentbankingservicesto,orhasaninvestmentbankingclientrelationshipwith,thefollowingcompany:AirChinaLimited,AlamtriResourcesIndonesia,BOCAviation,CathayPacificAirways,ChinaEasternAirlines,CosmoEnergyHoldings,EcoproBM,IdemitsuKosan,IndoramaVenturesPCL,J&TGlobalExpressLtd,JDLogistics,Inc.,KeppelLtd,KoreaElectricPower,L&FCoLtd,LGChem,LGEnergySolution,LotteChemicalCorp,Oil&NaturalGasCorp.,PacificBasinShipping,PetronasChemicalsGroupBerhad,POSCO,PTTExploration&Production,PTTGlobalChemicals,PTTPublicCompany,RelianceIndustries,S.F.HoldingCoLtd,SamsungSDI,SeatriumLimited,SiamCement,SKInnovationCoLtd,SpringAirlines,ThaiOilPublicCompany,UnitedTractorsTbkPT.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhaseitherprovidedorisprovidingnon-investmentbanking,securities-relatedservicestoand/orinthepasthasenteredintoanagreementtoprovideservicesorhasaclientrelationshipwiththefollowingcompany:BangchakCorporationPublicCompany,BharatPetroleumCorp.,BOCAviation,CathayPacificAirways,CosmoEnergyHoldings,GAIL(India),HindustanPetroleum,IdemitsuKosan,IndoramaVenturesPCL,J&TGlobalExpressLtd,KeppelLtd,KoreaElectricPower,LGChem,OrientOverseas(International)Ltd,PacificBasinShipping,PTTExploration&Production,PTTGlobalChemicals,PTTPublicCompany,RelianceIndustries,S-Oil,SamsungSDI,SiamCement,SKInnovationCoLtd,ThaiOilPublicCompany,UnitedTractorsTbkPT,ZTOExpress.

MorganStanley&Co.LLCmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofKoreaElectricPower.

TheequityresearchanalystsorstrategistsprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationofMorganStanleyResearchhavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandoverallinvestmentbankingrevenues.EquityResearchanalysts'orstrategists'compensationisnotlinkedtoinvestmentbankingorcapitalmarketstransactionsperformedbyMorganStanleyortheprofitabilityorrevenuesofparticulartradingdesks.

MorganStanleyanditsaffiliatesdobusinessthatrelatestocompanies/instrumentscoveredinMorganStanleyResearch,includingmarketmaking,providingliquidity,fundmanagement,commercialbanking,extensionofcredit,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleysellstoandbuysfromcustomersthesecurities/instrumentsofcompaniescoveredin

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

MorganStanleyResearchonaprincipalbasis.MorganStanleymayhaveapositioninthedebtoftheCompanyorinstrumentsdiscussedinthisreport.MorganStanleytradesormaytradeasprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatarethesubjectofthedebtresearchreport.

Certaindisclosureslistedabovearealsoforcompliancewithapplicableregulationsinnon-USjurisdictions.

STOCKRATINGS

MorganStanleyusesarelativeratingsystemusingtermssuchasOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedorUnderweight(seedefinitionsbelow).MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,holdandsell.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinMorganStanleyResearch.Inaddition,sinceMorganStanleyResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadMorganStanleyResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.

GlobalStockRatingsDistribution

(asofAugust31,2026)

TheStockRatingsdescribedbelowapplytoMorganStanley'sFundamentalEquityResearchanddonotapplytoDebtResearchproducedbytheFirm.

Fordisclosurepurposesonly(inaccordancewithFINRArequirements),weincludethecategoryheadingsofBuy,Hold,andSellalongsideourratingsofOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweight.MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,hold,andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings(seedefinitionsbelow).Tosatisfyregulatoryrequirements,wecorrespondOverweight,ourmostpositivestockrating,withabuyrecommendation;wecorrespondEqual-weightandNot-RatedtoholdandUnderweighttosellrecommendations,respectively.

CoverageUniverse

InvestmentBankingClients(IBC)

OtherMaterialInvestmentServices

Clients(MISC)

StockRating

Count

%ofTotal

Count

%ofTotalIBC

%ofRating

Count

%ofTotalOther

Category

Category

MISC

Overweight/Buy

1555

42%

450

48%

29%

767

44%

Equal-weight/Hold

1577

43%

395

42%

25%

770

44%

Not-Rated/Hold

3

0%

1

0%

33%

1

0%

Underweight/Sell

559

15%

93

10%

17%

216

12%

Total

3,694

939

1754

DataincludecommonstockandADRscurrentlyassignedratings.InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyreceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months.Duetoroundingoffofdecimals,thepercentagesprovidedinthe"%oftotal"columnmaynotadduptoexactly100percent.

AnalystStockRatings

Overweight(O).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Equal-weight(E).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Not-Rated(NR).Currentlytheanalystdoesnothaveadequateconvictionaboutthestock'stotalreturnrelativetotheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Underweight(U).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Unlessotherwisespecified,thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinMorganStanleyResearchis12to18months.

AnalystIndustryViews

Attractive(A):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeattractivevs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.

In-Line(I):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeinlinewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.

Cautious(C):Theanalystviewstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthswithcautionvs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachregionareasfollows:NorthAmerica-S&P500;LatinAmerica-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCILatinAmericaIndex;Europe-MSCIEurope;Japan-TOPIX;Asia-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCIsub-regionalindexorMSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.

StockPrice,PriceTargetandRatingHistory(SeeRatingDefinitions)

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areavailableontheMorganStanleyWealthManagementdisclosurewebsiteat/online/researchdisclosures

.ForMorganStanleyspecificdisclosures,youmayreferto

/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch

.

EachMorganStanleyresearchreportisreviewedandapprovedonbehalfofMorganStanleySmithBarneyLLC.ThisreviewandapprovalisconductedbythesamepersonwhoreviewstheresearchreportonbehalfofMorganStanley.Thiscouldcreateaconflictofinterest.

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