麦肯锡-2026 年全球支付报告 隐形世界中的卓越运营 The 2026 Global Payments Report Operational excellence in an invisible world

The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport

Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld

September2026

Mcsey

&company

The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport

Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld

ThisreportisacollaborativeeffortbyGustavoTayar,MatteoMantoan,andUzayrJeenah,withAmit

Gandhi,EricaSolino,GaiaThorel,JuliaSimchuk,andReemaJain,representingviewsfromMcKinsey’s

FinancialServicesPractice.

Asmarketmomentumslowsandcheckoutsdissolveintosoftware,

paymentsvalueisshiftingfromfront-endscreenstotheinvisiblecontrollayeroftrust,dynamicrouting,andagenticrails.

Foroveradecade,globalpaymentsenjoyedaneraofeffortlessmomentum,liftedbythetransitionfromcashtodigital,deepeningfinancialflows,elevatedinterest-ratetailwinds,andexpandingvaluecapturepertransaction.Today,thatmacrotideisreceding.Revenuegrowthismoderatingfrom9percentto

4percentannually,signalingastructuraltransitionacrosstheglobalpaymentslandscape.Soon,growthwillstemlessfrombroadmarketmomentumandmorefromdeliberatecompetitiveadvantages,suchascommercialexcellence,operationaldiscipline,regionalorchestration,andtechnologicalleadership.

Thisreportexploresthreedefiningshiftsthatwillshapetheeconomicsofglobalpaymentsoverthenextfiveyears:

—Chapter1:Fromvolumegrowthtooperationalexcellence.Inaslower-growthenvironmentwhere

interestratetailwindsaresoftening,performancedependsonoperationaldiscipline,pricing

sophistication,productivity,andbalancesheetoptimization.Asgenerativeartificialintelligence(genAI)andagenticcommercethreatentosqueezedeposityieldsandcardfeepools,incumbentsmayintheneartermplacegreateremphasisonfeeresilienceandyielddiscipline.

—Chapter2:Theevolutionofpaymentrails.Ratherthanconvergingtowardasingleglobalstandard,paymentinfrastructureisfragmentingintoregional,multi-railcompetitivearenas.Institutionswill

needtonavigatecompetingpressuresfromzero-feedomesticreal-timeaccount-to-account(A2A)networks,legacycardperimeters,andwholesalestablecoincorridorsforcross-bordersettlement.

—Chapter3:Theriseofinvisibleandagenticpayments.Astransactionclearingbecomesincreasinglycommoditized,valueisrelocatingfromfront-endcheckoutscreenstotheinvisible“controllayer”:

theback-endtrust,machineidentity,consentengines,anddynamicroutingprotocolsthatgovernautonomoussoftwareagents.

Organizationsthatfocusoncommercialexcellenceandoperationalrigor,navigateregionalmulti-railcomplexity,andpositionthemselvestoanchortheemergingcontrollayerwillbebestequippedto

capturevalueinanincreasinglyinvisiblepaymentsworld.

Soon,growthwillstemlessfrombroad

marketmomentumandmorefromdeliberatecompetitiveadvantages,suchascommercialexcellence,operationaldiscipline,regional

orchestration,andtechnologicalleadership.

The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld2

Chapter1:Fromvolumegrowthtooperationalexcellence

Globalpaymentsremainsbanking’slargestrevenuepool,generatingabout$2.6trillioninrevenuefrom3.8trilliontransactionsand$2.1quadrillioninannualvalueflows.Representingroughly41percentof

totalbankingrevenues,paymentsrevenueisacorepillaroftheindustry’seconomics.From2020to

2025,revenuegrewatanaverageannualrateof9percent,expandingat11percentannuallythrough

2024beforemoderatingto3percentin2025—risingfrom$1.7trillionto$2.6trillion.From2025to

2030,however,weexpectgrowthtomoderatetoabout4percentannually,belowthelong-termaverageof7percentoverthepasttenyears(Exhibit1).Thistrajectorywilladdaround$0.6trilliontotheglobal

revenuepool,bringingittoapproximately$3.2trillionby2030.

Exhibit1

Globalpaymentsrevenueincreased3percentgloballyin2025.

Globalpaymentsrevenue,$trillion

LatinAmericaEMEA¹NorthAmericaAsia–Pacific

+7%peryear

+11%peryear

CAGR,

2025–30,%

Total4

Latin7

America

EMEA¹3

North5

America

Asia–4

Pacific

+4%peryear

+3%

3.2

0.3

0.7

0.9

1.3

2.6

0.2

0.6

0.7

1.0

2022202320242025

39424241

2.5

0.2

0.6

0.7

1.0

0.8

0.6

1.3

0.10.3

0.4

Shareof

banking

revenues,²%

2030forecast

41

2.4

0.2

0.5

0.7

2.1

0.1

0.4

0.6

1.9

0.1

0.3

0.5

1.7

0.1

0.3

0.5

2020

35

2021

36

2015

35

0.9

1.0

1.0

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtolistedtotals,becauseofrounding.1Europe,MiddleEast,Africa;growthprojectionsexcludeRussia.2Totalbankingrevenues(feeandinterest)beforeriskcost.

Source:McKinseyGlobalPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

3The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld

The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld4

Atthisscale,evensmallshiftsinflows,pricing,orcontrolofthecustomerinterfacecansignificantly

reallocatevalue.Ouranalysissuggeststhatasthepaymentssectorslowsandbecomesmoreexecutionled,performanceoverthenextfiveyearswillbedeterminedlessbymarketmomentumthanbyproviders’abilitytomanagepricing,optimizemix,raiseproductivity,andinvestwithdiscipline.Thismacroshiftis

notfeltequally;asexploredinChapter2,regionalimbalancesareforcingproviderstonavigateahighlyfragmentedmulti-railbattleground.

Structuralandcyclicalgrowthforces

Recentpaymentsgrowthwaspropelledbyfourdistinctstructuralandcyclicalforces:

—Digitaltransition.Transactionvolumesgrewascashcontinuedtocedesharetodigitalrails.Globalconsumer-to-businesscashusagedeclinedbyabout4percentayear.

—Deepeningfinancialflows.Financialflowscontinuedtodeepenrelativetoeconomicactivity.Paymenttransactionvaluegrewroughly1.2timesfasterthannominalglobalGDPfrom2020to2025.

—Interestratetailwinds.Theelevatedinterestrateenvironmentservedasastrongcyclicaltailwind,drivingrapidgrowthinnetinterestincome(NII).

—Expansionofvalue-addedservices.Providersincreasedrevenuepertransactionbyembeddingsoftware,fraudmitigation,anddataservicesintothetransactionflow.

Thesetailwindsarefadingascashdisplacementplateaus,growthnormalizes,andregulatoryandcompetitivepressurefromlow-costrailscompressesmonetizationinsomemarkets.

Shiftingrevenuesashistoricaltailwindsfade

Ashistoricaltailwindsfade,thenextfiveyearswillseepronouncedregionaldivergenceamongglobal

revenuepools.ThelargestrevenuepoolswillremainconcentratedinAsia–Pacific(APAC)andNorth

America,reachingroughly$1.3trillionand$0.9trillion,respectively,by2030.Globally,therevenuemixisexpectedtoshiftfrom46percentnetinterestincomeand54percentfeeincomein2025to44percentnetinterestincomeand56percentfeeincomeby2030asinterestratesease,dampeningnetinterest

margins,andfee-basedrevenuesregainshare(Exhibit2).

Thisshifttowardfeesdoesnotaltertheindustry’sfundamentalsensitivitytointerestrates.Ouranalysisindicatesthatasustained25-basis-pointincreaseininterestratesfrom2026onward,relativetoour

baseprojections,wouldaddroughly$100billiontoglobalrevenuesby2030,primarilythroughhigher

directnetinterestincome,whichwouldeasilyoffsetsoftertransactionvolumes.Overthelongterm,

however,ouranalysissuggestsregionalperformancemaydependlessoninterestratesandmoreonthedepthoflocalfeepools,specificallytheextenttowhichprovidersmonetizevalue-addedsoftware,fraudmitigation,andspecializedtreasuryservicesalongsidebaselineprocessing.

5The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld

Exhibit2

Paymentsrevenuesshifttowardfeesasinterestratebenefitsrecede;

however,recentrate-cyclereversalcouldsustainnetinterestincomeshare.

Global

+4%peryear

Revenue,$trillion

Asia–Pacific

EMEA¹

Paymentsrevenuesandsplitbyrevenuetype,2025vs2030

+4%peryear

1.31.0

4846

5254

+3%peryear

0.60.7

4743

5357

peryear

0.9

42

58

Revenuemix,%

Netinterestincome

Feeincome

peryear

0.3

38

62

3.2

2030

44

56

2.6

2025

46

54

+5%

0.7

42

58

+7%

0.2

41

59

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

20252030

1Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica.

Source:McKinseyGlobalPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

Thistransitionwillunfoldacrossthemajorregionsindistinctways(Exhibit3):

—NorthAmerica:High-valueconsumerfees.NorthAmericaremainsthemostconsumer-skewedmajormarket,withabout65percentof2025revenuestiedtoconsumerflows.Itsrevenuebaseishighlyfeeled,accountingfor58percentoftotalrevenue(Exhibit2),reflectingthecontinueddominanceofcardeconomics,merchantacceptance,andconsumerlending.Growthisprojectedtonormalizefroma

9percentannualratein2020–25toaforecast5percentin2025–30.

—APAC:Large-scalecommercialnetinterestincome.APACismorecommerciallyoriented,withonly

44percentofrevenuestiedtoconsumerflows.ItsmixisheavilyreliantonNII,owingtohighcorporate

depositvolumesandtransactionbankingrelationships.Whilethisregion’srevenuepoolremainsthe

largest,itsgrowthisexpectedtomoderatefrom5percentannuallyin2020–25to4percentin2025–30.

Exhibit3

The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld6

Asia–Pacific,EMEA,andLatinAmericarevenuepoolsaremore

commerciallyoriented,whileNorthAmerica’sareprimarilyconsumer-led.

Globalpaymentsrevenue,bytypeandlocation,2025

Global

payments

revenues,

%

Latin

Asia–PacificEMEA¹AmericaNorthAmerica

8

15

6

5

16

10

23

21

8

27

11

21

3

15

10

13

6

3

3

5

3

4

12

21

18

39

7

24

8

12

14

8

$1.0$0.6$0.2$0.7

Commercial

(49%oftotal)

Cross-border²

AccountNII³

Domesticfees⁴

Creditcards

Consumer

(51%oftotal)

Cross-border⁵

AccountNII³

Domesticfees⁴

Creditcards

Globalpaymentsrevenues,$trillion

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

1Europe,MiddleEast,Africa.²Cross-borderpaymentsservices(B2B,B2C).³Netinterestincomeoncurrentaccountsandoverdrafts.⁴Feerevenuesondomesticpaymenttransactionsandaccountmaintenance(excludingcreditcards).⁵RemittanceservicesandC2Bcross-borderpaymentservices.

Source:McKinseyGlobalPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

—Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica(EMEA).Margincompressionandslowgrowth.EMEAisrelatively

balancedbutleanstowardcommercialspending(54percentofrevenues).Lowerinterestratesare

compressingtreasuryanddepositmargins,promptingarapidshifttofee-basedstructures.Growthisprojectedtoslowtoabout3percentannuallyin2025–30,asharpdeclinefromthe14percentannualgrowthseenin2020–25.

7The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld

—LatinAmerica:Continuationofresilientgrowth.LatinAmericatiltsslightlycommercialaswell

(54percentofrevenues),althoughconsumercreditcardsremainitssecondlargestsinglepoolat24

percent.Interestratebenefitsarenowfadinginmostcountries,whileinstant-paymentplatformssuchasBre-BandPixarepressuringcardanddebiteconomicsacrosstheregion.Yettheregioncontinuestobenefitfromfinancialinclusion,greaterroomforcardadoption,ande-commercegrowth.Revenuesexpandedbyabout19percentannuallyin2020–25andareforecasttogrowby7percentannuallyin2025–30.

WhileabsolutescaleremainsconcentratedinAPACandNorthAmerica,incrementalgrowthoverthenextfiveyearswillskewtowardLatinAmerica,reinforcingatrendhighlightedinourpastthreereports,and

towardmarketswithdeep,resilientfeestructures.

Howartificialintelligenceisreshapingpaymentseconomics

Lookingahead,ouranalysissuggeststhatagenticartificialintelligencecouldreshapetheeconomicsof

payments.Whilelessinfluentialthaninterestratesinthenearterm,agenticAIisincreasinglyrelevantto

howvalueiscapturedinpaymentsanddepositpools.Thenear-termeffectmayappearcontained,butthisreflectsconstraintsonadoptionandexecutiontoday,notastructurallimitonthetechnology’sdisruptive

potential.Asconsumer-facingagentsdemonstratetangiblevalueandmakefinancialoptimization

increasinglyeffortless,adoptionandeconomicshiftscouldacceleratematerially.Autonomoussoftwareagentscouldincreasinglyactonbehalfofconsumersandcorporations,optimizingaccountyields,

dynamicallyroutingtransactionsthroughpaymentrailstominimizefeesormaximizerewards,andautomatingpurchasingdecisions.

Despitethemomentumbehindagenticcommerce,widespreaddelegationoffinancialactivityremains

constrainedbyconsumers’lackoftrust,inertia,anduneveninfrastructurereadiness.Eveninadvanced

marketssuchastheUnitedStates,surveydataindicatesthatroughly40percentofconsumersarewillingtosharefinancialdatawithagentstoexecutetransactions.1Yettheseconstraintsmayprovemorefluidthanstructural.Consumer-facingagenticapplicationsarebeginningtodemonstratethevalueofdelegating

discovery,comparison,andoptimization.Asthatvaluebecomesclearer,consumersmayincreasinglyweighthebenefitofsharingfinancialdataagainsttheperceivedrisk.Agentscouldalsoremovemuchofthebehavioralinertiathathashistoricallykeptconsumersfromactingonbetterfinancialchoicesbycontinuouslyidentifying—andultimatelyexecuting—thosechoicesontheirbehalf.

Howquicklythatdisruptionmaterializeswilldependonfiveinterdependentconditions.Theseareimportantpacingvariables,butnotnecessarilylong-termbarriers.Severalcouldmovequicklyasconsumeradoption,bankcapabilities,andagenticnetworksreinforceoneanother.

1.Consumerdelegation.Movingbeyondthecurrentbaseline,whereonlyabout49percentofconsumersarewillingtodelegateand55to60percentactonrecommendations,requiresthevaluedeliveredby

agents—betterrewards,higherdeposityields,lowerborrowingcosts,orreducedeffort—tooutweigh

consumers’perceivedrisksfromsharingdataanddelegatingfinancialdecisions.2Asconsumer-facingagentsdemonstratethatvalue,willingnesstodelegatecouldrisefasterthanhistoricalfinancial-productswitchingwouldsuggest.

1McKinseyGlobalConsumerPaymentsSurveydata.

2McKinseyGlobalConsumerPaymentsSurveydata.

The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld8

2.Dataportability.Realizingthistransitionatamarketleveldependsonmovingfrompatchy,select-marketopenbankingtouniversal,real-timedataaccessforallfinancialinstitutionswithineach

market.

3.Systemicinteroperability.Seamlessexecutionrequiresagentstoroutetransactionsdynamicallybetweenplatformsratherthanoperatingwithintoday’swalledgardens,whereindividualretailersadmitonlytheirchosenagentsandexcludetherest.

4.Regulatoryclarity.Innovationisconstrainedbymandatorymanualapprovals.Acceleratingadoptiondependsonsupervisoryframeworksthatexplicitlypermitautonomous,AI-initiatedexecution.

5.AItrustandcapability.Technicalcompetencedemonstratedinearlypilotsneedstomatureintoaproven,reliabletrackrecord,supportedbyclearliabilityandconsumerprotectionframeworks.

Interactionsamongtheseconditionsmattermorethananyoneassumption.Today,consumerinertia

givesfinancialinstitutionsanimportantsourceofeconomicprotection:Consumersmayknowthata

higher-yieldingaccount,betterrewardscard,orcheaperfinancingoptionexistsbutstillfailtoact.Agentscanprogressivelyremovethatinertiabyidentifyingthebetterchoice,thensimplifyingtheswitch,and

ultimatelyexecutingitautomatically.Asconsumer-facingagentsbecomemorecapableandbanksmakeproductsincreasinglymachineaccessible,relativelysmallchangesindelegation,access,andexecutioncouldproducenonlinearchangesinfinancialflows.

WeevaluatedseveralAIadoptionpaths,includingbase,accelerated,andconservativescenarios,basedonmarketreadiness.Underourbaselineadoptionscenario,agenticAIcouldputroughly$75billionin

globalpaymentsrevenueatriskby2030.3Thisisequivalentto4percentofthe$1.9trillionpoolofretailandcommercialdepositsandconsumercreditcardrevenues.Thepotentialrevenueatriskcouldreach

twotothreetimesthatbasecase—$160billioninanaggressivescenario—reflectinguncertaintyaroundthepaceofconsumerdelegation,dataaccess,systemicinteroperability,andregulatoryclarity(Exhibit4).

Underthebasecase,themechanismsputtingrevenueatriskinclude:

—Depositnetinterestincome($65billionatriskacrossretailandcommercialdeposits)coulddeclineassoftwareagentsautomaticallysweepidlecashtohigher-yieldingaccountsandinvestmentproducts,causingbalancemigrationandyieldcompression.

—Consumercreditcardrevenues($10billionatrisk)coulderodethroughpaymentrailsubstitution,automatedrepaymentoptimization,feeavoidance,andreal-timeforeign-exchangerouting.

Aggregaterevenueexposurecanalsounderstatedisruptionwithinindividualeconomics.InUSconsumercreditcards,forexample,rewardsalreadyconsumemostinterchangeeconomics.Onapproximately

$10billionofnetinterchange(afterrewards)in2030,ourbasecaseanalysissuggestsagentic

optimizationcoulddisruptroughly30percentby2030—evenwithoutassumingafull-scalerewardswar.

3Agenticpaymentsrefertotransactionsinwhichautonomoussoftwareagentsinitiateandexecuteapaymentonauser’sbehalf,within

parametersestablishedbytheuser,withoutrequiringhumaninterventionatthepointoftransaction.Humaninvolvementisconcentratedattheinitialsetup(suchasestablishingpreferences,permissions,andspendinglimits),afterwhichagentstransactautonomously.Our

modelingperimeterexcludesAI-assistedcommerce—whereconsumersuseAIfordiscovery,comparison,orrewardsoptimizationbutcompletethetransactionmanually.

9The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld

Exhibit4

AIagentscouldput$75billionto$160billionof2030paymentsrevenueatrisk—4to8percentofdepositsandconsumercardrevenue.

ApproximatepaymentsrevenueatriskfromAIagents,2030,$billion

160

CommercialDeposits²

75

~4%ofrevenuepool

32

Consumer

Retaildeposits²Consumercards

43

~8%ofrevenuepool

72

88

BasecaseAggressivecase

Agent-touchedshareofspend/depositbalances,¹%

Basecase

8–10

12–14

14–16

Aggressivecase

14–16

20–22

22–25

1Agent-touchedshareistheportionofspendordepositbalancesthatagentscouldinfiuence.Itisafunctionofwillingnesstodelegate,likelihoodofactingonagentrecommendations,andtheexposureofeachspendordeposittype.

2Depositsincludedemandsdepositsonly.

Source:McKinseyGlobalPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

TheimplicationisthatagenticAIcanmateriallyreshapeprofitpoolswellbeforeitseffectappearslargeagainsttotalindustryrevenue(Exhibit5).

YetthetruesignificanceofagenticAIliesnotinthesizeofthisnear-termrevenueshift—thoughitis

material—butinthepressureitcouldeventuallyexertontheindustry’smostlucrativerevenueandprofitpools.Historically,transaction-processingscaleprovidedthecorefoundationforglobalpayments

revenues,butincrementalgrossprofitexpansionhasincreasinglyconcentratedinthesoftwareand

workflowlayerssurroundingthetransaction.Forsoftware-ledacquirers,andverticalsoftware-as-a-

service(SaaS)platforms,embeddedpayments,value-addedservices,andsoftwaresubscriptionsnow

accountfor40to60percentoftotalgrossprofit.Thisshifttransformspaymentsfromastand-alone

transactionutilityintoanintegratedfeatureofenterpriseworkflows.AccordingtoMcKinseybenchmarksforUSsmallandmedium-sizeenterprise(SME)acquiring,value-addedservicesgenerategrossmarginsofupto80percent,comparedwith20to30percentforbaseprocessing.

Publicmarketshaveconsistentlyrewardedthisshifttosoftware-leddistribution.Providerswithdeepworkflowintegrationandproprietaryinterfaceownershiptradeatsignificantvaluationpremiumsoverstand-aloneprocessors.Thatpremiumreflectslowercustomerchurn,higheraveragerevenueperuser(ARPU),andmoredurablemargins.

Exhibit5

The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld10

Agenticcommercecouldcutcardinterchangerevenuenetofrewardsby30to75percentincard-heavymarkets.

IllustrativeUSexample:Shareofthe$10.3billioncardinterchangerevenuepool,netofrewards,¹a仟ectedbyagentsby2030,%

100

Baseline(noAI)

~30

0

Basecase

~50

Aggressive

Rewardswar

~75

2030rewards

rate,basispoints

175

217

245

270

Upliftvsbaseline

1.0×

1.2×

1.4×

1.5×

Impactoffactorsonnetrevenuepool

FactorE仟ectRationale

入Positive,partialo仟set↓Negative

Rail-o仟toaccount-to-accountandinstantpayments

Spendleavescardrailsentirely,sothefullinterchangeislostonshiftedvolume

Volumeuplift

Transactioncountrisesasagentssplitpurchaseswhiletheaverageticketfalls;netvolumegrows

Credit-to-debitmix

Debitinterchangeisroughlyhalfofcredit,compressingblendedyield

Premiumcardmix

Theagentpayswiththehighest-earningcard,whichisalsothehighest-interchangecard

Increaseinrewardscost

Theagentpayswiththehighest-earningcard,whichraisesrewardscost

Note:Scenariobasedon2025pool:$94billiongrossinterchange–$83billionrewards=$11billionnetpool;2030pool:$130.3billiongrossinterchange–$120billionrewards=$10.3billionnetpool;assumesa2025rewardrateof168bps.

1Creditcardrevenuepooldoesnotincludenetinterestincomeonbalances.

Source:McKinseyGlobalPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

Thebasecaseshouldnotbeinterpretedasaceilingonagenticdisruption.Itreflectshowfartoday’s

constraintsondelegation,access,andexecutionmayeaseby2030.Ifconsumer-facingagentsestablishacompellingvalueproposition,financialinstitutionsbecomeincreasinglymachineaccessible,andswitchingorroutingbecomeseasier,theseconstraintscouldrelaxfasterthanexpected.Ourscenariosillustratethis

sensitivity:The2030potentialexposurerangesfromroughly$35billioninaconservativecaseto$160

billioninanaggressivescenario.Furthereasingofbehavioralconstraintscouldmorethandoublethebase

caseexposureoverthesubsequentfiveyears,evenbeforeaccountingforgrowthintheunderlyingrevenuepool.TherevenueheadwindfromagenticAIisheavilybackloadedtowardtheendofthedecade,withthefullpotentialfordisruptionmorelikelytoberealizedonalonger-termhorizon.

11The2026McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport:Operationalexcellenceinaninvisibleworld

Separately,digitalassetssuchasstablecoinsandtokenizeddepositscouldposeanadditional

headwindtopaymentsanddepositrevenuesiftheyscalebeyondtraditionalbankandcardeconomics.Stablecoinsbypasstraditionalinterchangeandforeign-exchange(FX)conversionmarkups,andthey

shiftfloatincomeoutofcommercialbankdeposits.Ascross-bordercorporatecorridorsadopttokenizedsettlement(fromstablecoinsandtokenizeddeposits),providerswillfacedirectmarginpressureon

foreign-exchangespreadsandcorrespondentbankingfees.

Durablemoatsforselectivevaluecapture

Historically,valueaccrueddisproportionatelytothelayersclosesttothecustomer.Lookingahead,our

analysissuggestsvaluewillaccrueselectivelytoplayersthatcombinesoftwarecapabilitieswithdurable,harder-to-replicatemoats:proprietarydata,embeddeddistribution,trustedcustomerrelationships,anddeepworkflowintegration.Inaslower-growth,increasinglyfee-ledpaymentsmarket,capturingvaluewilldependfarmoreonthesedurablemoatsthanonproximitytotheenduser.Thisrealitywillforceacriticalreevaluationofthehighlycontestedrailinfrastructureundergirdingpaymentsflows.

Chapter2:Theevolutionofpaymentrails

Whiletheoreticalmodelspredictthatglobalpaymentnetworkswilleventuallyunifyintoaseamless,automatedsystem,theoperationalrealityforfinancialservicesprovidersisdefinedbyregional

fragmentationandcontestedstrategicboundaries.Rapidlyexpandingdomesticreal-timepaymentsystemsandemergingdigitalassetnetworksarenowcompetingdirectlywithtraditionalcreditcardbusinessmodels.Leadingprovidersarerealizingthattonavigatethishighlyfragmentedmulti-rail

context,theymustmanageacomplexsetofstructuraldivergencesamongmarkets’railadoption,regulation,andeconomics.

Inearly2026,wespokewithmorethan20seniorpaymentexecutivesinNorthAmerica,theEuropean

Union,theUnitedKingdom,andemergingeconomies.Ourdiscussionsprovidedinsightsintohow

regionalfragmentationiscreatingcontestedstrategicboundaries.Forexample,aNorthAmerican

merchantacquisitionleadnoted,“Weareseeingahead-oncollisionbetweenzero-feedomesticreal-timenetworksandalegacyinterchangemodelthatcardissuersaredesperatetoprotect.”Theexecutives’

perspectivessuggestcriticaloperationalrealitiesreshapingglobalflowsandregionalarchetypesdefiningthemarkettoday.

Ground-levelinsightsintomulti-railfriction

Whilebroadmacrotrends—suchasagenticcommerce,escalatingfraudthreats,andm