麦肯锡 -2026 年中东和北非地区食品零售行业现状：应对增长悖论 State of grocery retail MENA 2026 Managing the growth paradox

Mcsey

&company

February2026

RetailPractice

Stateofgroceryretail

MENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox

ConsumerconfidenceintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaisrising,butretailmomentumisnot.Tentrendscanhelpgrocersnavigatethisparadox,gain

granularinsights,andidentifyareasforgrowth.

byAbdellahIftahy,DamianHattingh,andGokmenCigerwithPaulineCarrion

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox2

ThepastyearhasbeenoneofmixedfortunesforgrocersintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region.Whileconsumerconfidencecontinuesitsupwardtrendfrompreviousyears,thatoptimismhasnottranslatedintofastergrowth.Infact,growthhasslowedoverthepastyear,despiteasharpuptickinnew

storeopenings,suggestingthatachangeofstrategymayberequiredforgrocerstosucceedin2026.

Our

2024StateofGroceryRetailMENA

researchhighlightedthat,afteryearsofdecliningconsumer

confidence,themarkethadturnedacorner—andour2025researchconfirmsit.1Acrosstheregion,

consumersarebalancingpriceconsciousnessandbargainhuntingwithawillingnesstospendmoreon

selectedproducts.Fewerconsumers,frombothhigher-andlower-incomegroups,wereintendingtotrade

downtosavemoneyin2025,comparedto2023and2024,andmoreconsumersacrosstheincomespectrumexpressedanintenttobuyhigh-qualityandpremiumfoodproducts(Exhibit1).Healthyandfreshproduce,

andfood-to-go,weretheprimarybeneficiariesofthistrend.

Exhibit1

MiddleEastandNorthAfricacontinuetoseeareboundinconsumerwillingnesstospend.

Netintenttoswitchtolessexpensivefoodproductstosavemoney,¹%

–11pp

3332

22

Highincome

–4

percentagepoints(pp)

3534

31

Lowincome

Netintenttobuyhigh-quality/premiumfoodproducts,¹%

2025

31

23

17

LowincomeHighincome

pp

44

2024

47

2023

+3pp

46

+14

1Netintentrepresentstheshareofconsumerswhowanttodomoreoftheactivityminustheshareofconsumerswhowanttodolessoftheactivity.The2024and2025surveyscoverEgypt,Morocco,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates,andthe2023surveycoversEgypt,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates.

Source:McKinseyConsumerSurvey2025,n=4,519(Egypt,Morocco,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates,sampledtomatchgeneralpopulationaged18andabove)

McKinsey&Company

However,thiswillingnesstospendhasnotprovidedthetailwindforgrowththatmighthavebeenanticipated.Growthintheformalgroceryindustrywasslowinthefivemarketsincludedinthisstudy,withtheexception

ofMorocco,whereitpickedupto4.7percentin2024(Exhibit2)(seesidebar,Aboutthisresearch).NewstoreopeningsinMoroccoalsotoppedtheregionwithan11percentincreasefromthepreviousyear.

1“Agrowtharena:Stateofgroceryretail2024MiddleEastandNorthAfrica,”McKinsey,October22,2024.

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox3

Exhibit2

Growthinformaltradehasbeensluggish,evenasnewstoreopeningsincrease.

Moderntrade¹growthmetrics

2019–21

Moderntrade

Changeinmoderntrade

Increaseinstores,2021

2021–23

growth,CAGR,

shareoftotal,2023–24,

%increasevs2023

2023–24

%

percentagepoint

previousyear2024

SaudiArabia

–4.5

0.6

0.4

+0.2

0.1

2.3

2.5

UnitedArabEmirates

1.3

0.9

1.8

+0.3

6.7

4.4

5.2

Egypt

–3.6

–3.1

1.7

+0.5

3.0

8.5

6.0

Morocco

0.2

8.0

+1.0

4.3

6.4

11.0

4.7

Qatar

1.72.5

9.0

+0.6

N/A

1Moderntradeincludesconvenienceretailers,discounters,hypermarkets,andsupermarkets;traditionaltradeincludesfood,drink,andtobaccospecialistsandsmalllocalgrocers.

Source:Euromonitor;Statista

McKinsey&Company

Egypt’sformalgroceryindustrysawthelowestgrowth,contractingby3.1percent,whilenewstore

openingsgrewby6.0percent,suggestingthatstoresalesaredeclininginthatcountry,asinmostoftherestoftheregion.

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox4

Aboutthisresearch

TheStateofGrocerySurveyMENA,nowinitsthirdyear,ispartofanannualglobalsurveyanalyzingspendingbehavior,sentimentonglobaltrendssuchashealthandsustainability,andconsumerperceptionsofleading

grocers.In2025,weexpandedoursample,surveyingmorethan5,520consumersacrossfivemarkets:Egypt,theKingdomofSaudiArabia(KSA),Morocco,Qatar(whichmakesitsfirstappearanceinthesurvey),andtheUnitedArabEmirates(UAE).Wealsointerviewedindustryexpertstogettheirperspectivesonkeychallengesandprioritiesintheregion.

Lookingahead,tocapitalizeonrisingconsumeroptimismandbreakoutofthisslow-growthtrap,grocersmayneedtofindpocketsofopportunity,sharpentheircustomeroffertocatertoshiftingshopper

preferences,andleveragedataandAItoaccelerategrowth.Thisarticleexplorestentrendsshapingthelandscapetohelpretailersidentifywhereopportunitiesmaylie.

Keythemes

TenthemesareshapingtheMiddleEastandNorthAfricagroceryretaillandscape.

1

2

3

4

5

Format

Privatelabels:An

E-grocery:Achance

Healthyeating:

Food-to-go:Continu-

di仟erentiation:

opportunitywaiting

forincumbentsto

Appetitesconverging

ingtooutpacethe

Ripeforashake-up

tobeunlocked

gainmarketshare

totalgrocerymarket

Almost90%of

Morethan80%of

Whilerapidgrowth

Acrossincomegroups,

At19%CAGR,the

consumerspendis

shoppersareinfavor

hasbeenledbydigital

thelevelofintentto

food-to-gosegmentis

confinedto2formats

ofprivatelabels,but

attackers,thereisan

buyhealthierproducts

growingatalmost4×

(supermarketsand

marketpenetrationis

openingforgrocery

isconvergingabove

thepaceoftotal

hypermarkets),

below10%.

incumbentstogrow

50%.

grocerysales.

contributingtolow

levelsofcustomer

satisfactionacross

shoppingmissions.

onlinesales.

6

7

8

9

10

Customerloyalty:

AI:Anenginefor

Retailmedia:Aprofit

eB2B:Retailersare

M&A:Youdon’thave

Shapingshopper

valuecreation

powerhousereadyfor

wellpositionedto

togoitalone

behaviors

takeo仟

capitalizeonthetrend

Loyaltyprogramsare

GenAIcouldgenerate

Retailmediais

Digitalattackersare

Between2023–24,

increasingly

between$14.1billion–

deliveringmarginsof

losingsteamineB2B;

M&Adealsgrewbya

sophisticatedindriving

$22.5billioninthe

between40–50%,and

opportunitiescould

CAGRof160%in

customerbehavior,

retailandCPGsectors

anadditional1–3%of

existforretailerswith

AfricaandtheMiddle

providinganupliftin

acrosstheMiddleEast

revenueforgrocery

cash-and-carry

East,reversingthe

revenuegrowth

andAfrica,thelargest

retailers.

models.

–35%dipseen

between4–7%.

opportunityforany

sectorintheregion.

between2021–23.

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox5

1.Formatdifferentiation:Ripeforashake-up

Anundifferentiatedgroceryecosystemwithfewershoppingchoicescreatesaclearopportunityfornewformatsandpropositions.

Comparedtootherregionsintheworld,thegroceryindustryinMENAisoverlyreliantonsupermarket

andhypermarketformats.Together,thesetwoformatsaccountforalmost90percentofconsumerspendintheregion(Exhibit3).Bycomparison,theindustryelsewhereintheworldoperatesabroaderrangeofstore

formatstocatertodiversecustomersegmentsandshoppingoccasions,rangingfromsmall-formatstores

targetingurbanconvenienceshopperstolargerwarehousestoresservingbulkandfamilyshoppers.InLatinAmerica,forexample,supermarketandhypermarketformatsaccountforonly56percentofconsumerspend,withconvenience,discount,andwarehouseformatsmakingupthedifference.

Exhibit3

ThereisaheavyrelianceonsupermarketandhypermarketformatsintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica.

Moderntradebyformat,2024,%

MENA¹

9

3

46

42

North

America²

11

4

13

42

30

Europe

16

23

39

22

Asia–Pacific

19

3

62

16

Latin

America

8

17

19

32

24

Convenience

Discounter

Warehouseclub

Supermarket

Hypermarket

MENACAGR,2019–24,%

2

20

N/A

5

2

1Egypt,Morocco,Qatar,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates.2USandCanada.

Source:Euromonitor(constant2024prices,fixedexchangerates)

McKinsey&Company

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox6

ThelackofshoppingformatsisdrivinglowcustomersatisfactionacrosstheMENAregionbecauseof

limitedchoiceandconvenience.Ourresearchshowsthatconsumershaveawiderangeofshoppingmissions—fromquickdailytop-ups,food-on-the-go,andbargainhuntingtospecial-occasionshoppingandmajorweeklyormonthlystockups—butcurrentformatsarenotservingthesediversemissionseffectively.Onaverage,

customers’satisfactionwithdifferentelementsoftheirshoppingexperienceacrossthesemissionsiswellbelow40percent(Exhibit4).

Price,inparticular,isthelargestdriverofdissatisfactioninthemarket,whichmayexplainwhydiscountersaregrowingmuchfasterthanthemarketasawhole.Onaverage,onlyathirdofshopperssurveyedwere

satisfiedwiththepricestheypaidacrossshoppingmissions.Partlyinresponsetothis,discountformatsgrewata20percentCAGRbetween2021and2024,faroutpacingtotalmoderngrocerygrowthincountriesincludedinthesurvey,whichgrewatjusta1percentCAGR.DiscountergrowthwasfastestintheUAE,at56percent,albeitfromalowbase,andslowestintheKSAat11percent.2Thequestforvalueinthismarketcreatesanimperativeforretailerstofindinnovativewaystomeetthisneed.

Whileweareseeingearlysignsofformatdifferentiationacrosstheregion,thefieldisstillwideopenforgrocers.Emergingformattrendsintheregionincludeariseinvalue-focuseddiscounters,formatscombiningvalueandconvenience—suchassmalldiscounters—and“fastandfresh”conveniencestorescateringtograb-and-gourbanlifestyles.3ThepersistenceofbaqalastoresintheMENAregionalsopointstotherelevanceofformatsanchoredinthecommunitythatprovidevalue-addedserviceslikecreditandfreedelivery.

2

3

McKinseyanalysisbasedonEuromonitordata(constantpricesand2024fixedexchangerates)accessedinJuly2025.

Expertinterviews;McKinseyresearch.

Exhibit4

CustomersatisfactionintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaislowacrossallshoppingmissions.

Datarange

Shareofrespondentssatisfiedwitheachpurchasedriver,%0

100

Mission

Bulk

shopping

Deal

hunting

Top-ups

Urgent

shops

Food-on-the-go

Craving/

indulgence

Special

occasion

Shareof

spend,%

31

13

17

14

9

9

7

1

Promotion

Promotion

Promotion

Location

Promotion

Promotion

Promotion

37

40

36

40

36

35

36

Rankingof

purchase2drivers

Price

Price

Price

Promotion

Price

Price

Price

33

36

33

37

31

34

37

3

Range

Range

Range

Range

Location

Range

Range

39

40

37

40

38

39

42

Source:McKinseyConsumerSurvey2025,n=5,520(Egypt,Morocco,Qatar,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates,sampledtomatchgeneralpopulationaged18andabove)

McKinsey&Company

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox7

2.Privatelabels:Anopportunitywaitingtobeunlocked

Privatelabelsofferarouteforhypermarketsandsupermarketstotapintothevalueopportunity,butgroceryretailershaveyettounlocktheformulaforsuccessintheregion.

Consumeracceptanceofprivatelabelsishighandgrowingacrosstheregion.Inoursurvey,morethan80

percentofconsumerssawprivatelabelsasequaltoorsuperiortobrandedproductsandasofferingbettervalueformoney,withattitudessurprisinglyconsistentacrossmarketsandshiftinginfavorofprivatelabelswitheach

4

passingyear.

Despitethisrisinginterestinprivatelabels,marketpenetrationremainslow,evenbyemerging-market

standards.Infouroutoffivemarkets,penetrationofprivatelabelsisbelow10percent,comparedwith20

percentormoreincomparablemarketssuchasTürkiyeandSouthAfrica,andcloseto50percentinmany

Europeanmarkets(Exhibit5).Supply-relatedchallenges,suchasalimitedbaseoflocalmanufacturersandhighimportcosts,areobstaclestogrowthinthisareaastheyhinderretailers’abilitytocreatesufficientvarietyandstockofprivatelabelproductsatagoodpricetomeetconsumerdemand.5

Theretailersthatsolvethischallengefirstandbuildanintegratedprivatelabelsupplychainarelikelyto

captureasignificantopportunity.Tounlocktheopportunity,grocerscanconsiderpartneringwithinternationalmanufacturerstoestablishalocalpresenceorinvestinginowningorcontrollingpartsofthesupplychaindirectly.

4

Thepercentageofsurveyrespondentswhoansweredthattheypreferredtheirstore’sownbrandfoods(foodproductssoldunderthelabelofthegroceryretailer)overbrandedproducts,beyondprice,isabove80percentinallmarketsandincreasedbybetween–1and4percentagepointsbetween2024and2025.

5Expertinterviews;McKinseyresearch.

Exhibit5

MarketpenetrationforprivatelabelsintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaislow,evencomparedtootheremergingmarkets.

100

Privatelabelpenetration,¹2024,%moderntradesales

51.4

UK

47.7

Netherlands

44.1

Spain

22.3

SouthAfrica

20.5

Turkey

6.8

Morocco

4.0

Qatar

3.2

SaudiArabia

2.1

UAE²

Note:Egyptexcludedduetolackofdata.

1Categoriesincludecookingingredientsandmeals,dairyproductsandalternatives,homecare,hotdrinks,snacks,softdrinks,staplefoods,andtissueandhygiene.

2UnitedArabEmirates.

Source:Euromonitor;Europanel

McKinsey&Company

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox8

3.E-grocery:Achanceforincumbentstogainmarketshare

Consumers’preferenceforlowerpricesoverconvenienceiscreatinganopportunityforgrocerstoreclaimmarketsharefromdigitalcompetitors.

Thereissignificantheadroomforcontinuedgrowthine-grocery,aspenetrationisstilllowrelativeto

globalbenchmarks,andintenttobuymoreonlineishigh.Onlinegrocerygrewbymorethan40percenta

yearbetween2019and2024infourofthefiveMENAmarketsexamined(Exhibit6).Qatarhasthehighest

shareofe-grocery,at11.4percent—alreadyonparwith,andlikelytosurpass,globalbenchmarks.Atthesametime,consumersarewillingtobuyevenmoreonline,furtherboostinggrowthprospects.Forty-fourpercentofconsumersinQatarsaidthattheyintendedtobuymoregroceriesonlinein2025,upbysixpercentagepointsfrom2024,thehighestintheregion.EveninMorocco,whereintentwaslowest,21percentofconsumerssaidtheyintendtobuymoreonline.

Sofar,thee-groceryopportunityhasbeencapturedbydigitalattackersfocusedonultra-convenience

athighprices.However,thismightbedifficulttoscalefurtherasonlineshoppersareincreasinglyseekinga

bettertrade-offbetweenprice,assortmentavailability,andconvenience.Consumerswhohavestoppedbuyingonlinecitedhighprices,pooruserexperience,andlimitedproductavailabilityandrangeastheirtopreasonsformovingoffline.

Exhibit6

Thereisstronggrowthmomentumine-grocery,withroomtocontinue.

Shareofe-grocery,2025,%oftotalmoderntrade

11.4

100

CAGR,2019–24,%

Intenttobuy

moregroceriesonline,²%

Qatar

49

44

8.9

UAE¹

49

39

4.5

SaudiArabia

56

34

3.5

Egypt

40

36

2.8

Morocco

4

21

9.9

US

22

12.3

UK

13

1UnitedArabEmirates.

2Percentageofrespondentsthatindicatedthattheyareplanningtodomoreonlineshopping.

Source:ECDB;Euromonitor;McKinseyConsumerSurvey2025,n=5,520(Egypt,Morocco,Qatar,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates,sampledtomatchgeneralpopulationaged18andabove)

McKinsey&Company

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox9

Incumbentscanaddressthegapsleftbyquickcommerceplayersandofferconsumersamorebalancedonlinevalueproposition.Byleveragingtheirexistingstrengths,incumbentscancatertoconsumersinthe

e-groceryspacebyofferinglowerpricesandbetteruserexperience,alongwithabroaderrangeofproducts,evenifthiscomeswithslightlyslowerdelivery.MigrosinTürkiyepresentsacompellingcaseexampleofa

traditionalretailersuccessfullyusingthisstrategytogainmarketshareine-grocery.6

4.Healthyeating:Appetitesconverging

Healthyeatingremainsapriorityintheregion,withlow-incomeshoppersinparticularshowingincreasingdemandforfresherandhealthierproducts.

Acrossincomegroups,thelevelofintenttobuyhealthierproductsisconverging.Thenetintentofhigh

earnerstobuymorehealthyproductsis54percent,downsevenpercentagepointsfrom2024.Lower-incomeconsumersarecatchingup,witha52percentnetintent,upsixpercentagepointsfrom2024(Exhibit7).

6

AntonioMorenoandGamzeYucaoglu,“MigrosTurkey:ScalingOnlineOperations(A),”HBScasecollection,August2020(revisedMarch2021).

Exhibit7

Interestinhealthyproductsisconvergingbetweenlow-andhigh-incomeconsumers.

Netintenttofocusonhealthyeatingandnutrition,%

46

LowincomeHighincome

–7pp61

54

+6

percentage

points

(pp)

52

Netintenttobuyorganicandbioproducts,%

20242025

–5pp

32

27

+4pp

5

1

LowincomeHighincome

Note:Netintentrepresentstheshareofconsumerswhowanttodomoreoftheactivityminustheshareofconsumerswhowanttodolessoftheactivity.The2024and2025surveyscoverEgypt,Morocco,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates.

Source:McKinseyConsumerSurvey2025,n=4,519(Egypt,Morocco,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates,sampledtomatchgeneralpopulationaged18andabove)

McKinsey&Company

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox10

Despitetheappetiteforhealthyproducts,consumers—especiallylow-incomeearners—arenotnecessarilywillingtopaymoreforthem.Amonglow-incomeconsumers,oursurveyrevealsthatnetintenttopaymore

isbelow20percentinallmarkets.7Forexample,thisfigureisat19percentintheUAE,upthreepercentage

pointsfromthepreviousyear,andEgyptandQatarareat3percent,respectively.Thissuggestsanopportunityforgrocerstodeliverthehealthy,high-qualityproductsthatbothhigh-andlow-incomeconsumersdesireat

affordableprices.

5.Food-to-go:Continuingtooutpacethetotalgrocerymarket

ConvenienteatingisanotherkeyareawhereMENA’sconsumersarewillingtospend.

Thefood-to-gomarketinMENAisgrowingfastandcontinuestooutpacetotalgrocerygrowth.Between2021and2023,thissegmentgrewata16percentCAGR,almostfourtimesthepaceoftotalgrocerysalesoverthesameperiod.Growthcontinuedin2023–2024butslowedto10percent(Exhibit8).

7

Netintentrepresentstheshareofconsumerswhowanttodomoreoftheactivityminustheshareofconsumerswhowanttodolessoftheactivity.Consumerswereasked:Thinkabout2025.Areyouplanningtodomore,less,oraboutthesameofthefollowing?

Exhibit8

Food-to-gogrowthisoutpacingoverallgrocery,despitearecentslowdown.Marketgrowth,MiddleEastandNorthAfrica,¹index(2012=100)

Food-to-go²

Ready-to-eatDelivery

Totalo邗inegrocery

Eatinarestaurant

CAGR,%

2021–23

16

4

20

9

–1

2023–24

10

4

12

5

0

0

2012201620202024

600

500

400

300

200

100

1Egypt,Morocco,Qatar,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates.

2Food-to-goincludesready-to-eat(readymeals,preparedsalads),deliveredfood(pizza,takeaway,delivery),drive-through,andsoup.Source:Euromonitor(constant2024pricesandfixedexchangerates)

McKinsey&Company

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox11

Youngergenerationsaredrivingthegreatestinterestinready-to-eatoptions.Between2024and2025,netintenttobuyready-to-eatmealsincreasedby9percent,7percent,6percent,and1percentamongGenZ,millennial,GenX,andbabyboomerconsumers,respectively.

8

Thissuggeststhereisanopportunityto

furtheraccelerateready-to-eatproductstailoredtotheneedsofyoungergenerations.

6.Customerloyalty:Shapingshopperbehaviors

Ever-smarterandhyperpersonalizedloyaltyprograms,driveninpartbyAI,aresuccessfullyturningcustomerdataintodeeperengagementandhigherspend.

Inrecentyears,manyleadingretailershavelaunchedorrestructuredtheirloyaltyprogramstodelivermorevaluetoconsumers.Fourkeytrendsincludetheexpansionofall-in-oneecosystems

thatgobeyondretail;theshiftawayfrompoints-basedsystemstowardinstantdiscountsandexclusive

promotions;leveragingAIandcustomerrelationshipmanagement(CRM)todrivehyperpersonalization

andprecisionloyalty,deliveringtailoredexperiencesthroughdeepercustomerinsights;andfinally,the

riseofsubscription-basedloyaltyprograms,whereconsumerspayforexclusivebenefitssuchasunlimiteddeliveriesanddeeperdiscountsformembers-onlybenefits.

Doneright,loyaltyprogramsofferclearvalueindrivingincrementalcustomerbehavioranddeeper

relationships.UnpublishedMcKinseyresearchhasshownthatloyaltyprogramscandrivea4to7percentincreaseinincrementalrevenueandlowermarketingcostsby6to8percent.9However,retailersneed

toguardagainsttheriskthatgreatersophisticationcouldcreatemorecomplicationsforcustomers.Increasingly,themostsuccessfulloyaltyprogramsarethosethatarethesimplestforcustomerstounderstandandengagewith.

7.AI:Anengineforvaluecreation

Acrosstheregion,thedeploymentofgenAIisacceleratinginlinewithglobaltrends,withthepotentialtodeliverupto$20billioninvaluetoretailersandconsumerpackagedgoods(CPG)companies

(Exhibit9).

RetailersintheregionhavealreadystartedtoexperimentwithgenAIusecasesacrossthevaluechain.Theserangefrommarketingusecases,suchasauto-generatedandpersonalizedmarketingcontentand

salescampaignstodrivecustomerloyalty,toAI-driventaskorchestrationtooptimizelaborschedulinginstores,andagenticAIusecasesincommercialdecision-makingandsupportfunctions.10

WhilegenAIiscurrentlyreceivingalotofattention,weestimatethatthevastmajorityofvaluetobecapturedwilllikelycomefromnon-generativeoranalyticalAI.Thereisstillsignificantvalueonthetablefor

analyticalAIinretail

,especiallyincoreareassuchaspricing,promotions,andassortment.11

8Surveyrespondentswereasked:Now,thinkaboutthefollowingcategoriesyouwouldnormallybuyinagroceryretailer.Howwouldyoushopthiscategoryin2025?Netintentisthedifferencebetweenconsumerswhowouldbuymoreandthosewhowouldbuylessin2025versus

2024.

9

10

11

McKinseyConsumerLoyaltySurvey2022;McKinseyproprietarydatabaseofloyaltyprogramsacrosstheUnitedStatesasofMay2022.

MayowaKuyoroandUmarBagus,Leading,notlagging:Africa’sgenAIopportunity,McKinsey,May12,2025.

MayowaKuyoroandUmarBagus,Leading,notlagging:Africa’sgenAIopportunity,McKinsey,May12,2025.

StateofgroceryretailMENA2026:Managingthegrowthparadox12

Exhibit9

GenAIdeploymentisaccelerating,withroughly$15billionto$20billionofvaluepotentialforretailandconsumerpackagedgoods.

GenAlproductivityimpactbysectorintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,¹$billion(range)

14.1–22.5

13.4–22.2

12.7–21.7

10.7–17.9

10.1–17.6

10.0–16.5

5.8–9.8

2.5–3.9

2.9–4.8

Retailandconsumerpackagedgoods

Energyandmaterials

Capitalprojectsandinfrastructure

Media,digital,andtelecommunications

Social,healthcare,andeducation

Financialservices

Advancedmanufacturing

Professionalservices

Others²

Note:EstimatesdevelopedbasedonmethodologyinTheeconomicpotentialofgenerativeAI:Thenextproductivityfrontier,McKinsey,June14,2023;

adjustedforuniqueconsiderationsontheAfricancontinentandon-the-groundimplementationexperiencewithAfricaninstitutions.PotentialvalueofgenAI

assessedusingaproprietaryMcKinseydatabaseofpotentialAIusecases,andpotentialannualvalueoftheseusecasesiftheywereadoptedacrosstheentireeconomy.

1ImpactrepresentstheestimatedtotalsurplusfromgenAI-economicgainstobothproducers(eg,profit,savings)andconsumers(eg,lowerprices,betterprod-ucts).

2Includesmanufacturingofitemsnotclassifiedundertherestofthecategories,andwatersupply(sewerage,wastemanagement,andremediationactivities).

Source:Leading,notlagging:Africa’sgenAIopportunity,McKinsey,May12,2025;“TheStateofgenAIintheMiddleEast’sGCCcountries:A2024reportcard,”McKinsey,Nov6,2024

McKinsey&Company

8.Retailmedia:Aprofitpowerhousereadyfortakeoff

Retailmedia(RM)isstillnascentinMENA,butmomentumispickingup,thankstoimproveddatamanagementcapabilities,bettercustomerinsights,andhighertrafficone-grocerychannels—increasinggrocers’relevancetoadvertisers.

RMisdeliveringoutstandingreturnstogrocersglobally.McKinseyanalysisshowsthatcutting-

edgeRMusers