高盛-中国策略：AI+改写格局中国崛起

2026年10月11日|9:20PMHKTAI改写格局：中国崛起(摘要)刘劲津,CFA+852-2978-1224|kinger.lau@慕天辉,CFA+65-6889-1199|timothy.moe@付思,Ph.D.AI已改写中国股市格局自2025年初的“DeepSeek时刻”以来，中国AI相关上市公司通过股价上涨和IPO已创造市值近5万亿美元。目前，AI股票在A股和港股总市值中的占比达42%，在总成交额AI已改写中国股市格局自2025年初的“DeepSeek时刻”以来，中国AI相关上市公司通过股价上涨和IPO已创造市值近5万亿美元。目前，AI股票在A股和港股总市值中的占比达42%，在总成交额中的占比达57%。王主丰,CFA+852-2978-2446|kevin.wang@AI双头垄断格局正在形成中国一直是全球AI供应链的关键出口国，在部分AI电力和基础设施领域占据约50%的全球市场份额。但随着国内AI技术的进步，中国已逐步建立起一条内循环的AI价值链，该价值链同样涵盖先进半导体、（开放权重）大语言模型和应用我们研究范围内的中国AI股票包含1,700多家上市公司，其中360多家公司的海外收入占比超过40%，它们是海外AI资本支出热潮的代表。另一方面，逾880家公司主要面向国内市场，合计总市值达3.2万亿美元。中国国内AI资本开支和应用需求快速增长，政把握中国股票中的AI投资机会（1）尽管地缘政治和贸易政策风险仍需关前景与估值之间具有较好的性价比，筛选名单包含20家公司2）精选中国本土AI领军企业。随着本土AI生态体系不断建设，这些公司具有稀缺性价值，并可提供分散化投资收益，筛选名单包含20家公司3）分散化策略：我们更新后的中国精选AI投资投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息/research/hedge.html。2026年10月11日2AnAIduopolyinthemakingnThenarrativeofaglobalAIduopolyisgainingtractionamonginvestors—twodominantandself-sustainedAIecosystemsintheworld,onesponsoredbytheUSandbyitskeytradingpartners,andtheotherbyChina—forgeopolitical,geo-strategic,nationalsecurity,andgrowthreasons.nInPart2ofthisAIChangesTheGameseries,weintroducedaglobalAIequityuniversewhichcomprises6000+listedcompaniesthatarefundamentallylinkedtoAIdemandoradjacenttothebroaderAIthemebasedonthedefinitionofRBICS(seeexplanationbelow).ThesecompaniescanbeorganizedintofourbroadgeographicregionsandfivekeyAI-relatedcohorts.Inaggregate,theyadduptoUS$75tninmarketcapitalization(US$63tnscaledbytheirAIrevenues),around50%oftheworld’stotal.nInthisuniverse,ChineseAIcompaniesamounttoUS$7.6tnofmarketvalueacrosstheonshoreandoffshoremarketsperourestimate(weightedbytheirAIbusinessexposures;US$10tnonfullmarketcap),accountingforabout10%intermsofmarketcapandearningsglobally,14%bycapitalexpenditures,and24%byrevenues.nLeveragingitsstrongmanufacturingcapabilityandcostcompetitiveness,ChinahasbeenapivotalexportertoselectglobalAIsupplychains,notablyrareearthproduction/refining,powerequipment,PCB,opticaltransceiver,andmature-nodesemiconductor,allrepresentingover50%ofglobalmarketshareintheirrespectivesegments.nButasAItechnologydevelopsandevolvesdomestically,Chinahasgraduallybuiltaninternally-circulated,increasinglyself-sufficientAIecosystemthatspansacrosscertain“chokepoints”inthevaluechainthatwerehistoricallydominatedbytheWest,inparticularadvancedsemiandmemorychips,semipackagingtechniques,open-weight/sourceLLMs,tokenproductionandconsumption,andphysicalAIusecases.nTheso-calledDeepSeekandKimimomentsforChineseLLMsarewell-telegraphed,butbreakthroughshavebeenalsomadeinotherfoundationaltechnologydomains,namelyadvancedsemipackagingandcomputing(e.g.TauScalingLawandpotentialcommercializationofDUV),biologicalengineering,andaerospace(See图表4).nAcrossthe29AI-relatedsegmentsperourcategorizationmethodology,Chinesecompanies’presencecanbefoundinall,withtheir2026revenuesharesworldwidebasedonFactSetconsensusrangingfrom10%fortheSemicohorttoover50%forselectPowerandInfrasub-industries.nImportantly,thetechnologygapsbetweenChinaandtheWestseemtobenarrowing.WhileChinacouldbeafewgenerationsbehindfrontiertechnologiesinsemiconductorsaccordingtopublicsources,Chinaisprobablyonparwith,orevenleading,itsglobalcompetitorsincertainPower,Infra,Model,and(physical)AIapplicationsegments.2026年10月11日3nBut,achievingfullAIself-sufficiencystillappearsalongandchallengingjourneyforChina,inourview,consideringthat:(1)thesignificantmarketcap,profitability,andproductpricingdifferentials,andtheresultingfinancingandinvestmentcapacityforfuturegrowth,betweenthelistedUSandChineseAIfirms;(2)specificbottlenecksinthelocalsupplychaincouldhindertheexpansionofthetechnologicalfrontieroftheChineseecosystem;and,(3)AItechnologyismultiplicativeinnature—onegenerationgapinseveralcomponentsofthesupplychaincouldresultinmorethanonegenerationlaginaggregatecomputepoweroutput/efficiency.图表1:ChinaisapivotalsuppliertotheglobalAIvaluechain,representing+50%ofglobalmarketshareincertainAI-relatedsegmentsAIInfrastructureSemiconductorsPowerAIApplicationsAIInfrastructureSemiconductorsPowerAIApplicationsBatteryproductionTransformerproductioncapacityBatterystoragecapacityElectricityoutputNuclearpowergenerationRareearthrefiningNewcapacityoffoundriesFoundrycapacity(mainlymature-node)MemoryDatacentercapacityDatacentercoolingHumanoidrobotsshipments(1H26)SmartphoneproductionInnovativedrugs(clinicaltrialLEOsatelliteinstallation0%20%40%60%资料来源：GrandViewResearch,SCMP,ChinaDaily,BBC,NYTimes,GlobalTimes,高盛全球投资研究部2026年10月11日4图表2:ThenarrativeofaglobalAIduopolyisgainingtractionamonginvestors资料来源：FactSet,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年10月11日5图表3:TheUSandNorthAsiantechcompaniesareleadingintheSemiandModelcohorts,butChinaAIopportunitiesseembetterpopulatedinPower,Infrastructure,andPhysicalAI资料来源：FactSet,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年10月11日6图表4:TechnologybreakthroughshavebeenmadeinmanyfoundationaltechnologydomainsinChina资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年10月11日7图表5:Chinaisstilllagginggloballeading-edgetechnologiesinmanypartsoftheAIsupplychain,buthasexcelledincertainareas,suchaspowertransmission,PCBproduction,andphysicalAI资料来源：百度,Google,路透,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年10月11日8图表6:ThemarketcapandprofitabilitydifferentialsbetweentheChineseandUSAIvaluechainsremainsignificantMAINLANDCHINARESTOFWORLDMktCap26ENetMargin26EROE26Capex/Sales26R&D/SalesMktCap26ENetMargin26EROE26Capex/Sales26R&D/SalesPowerSemiconductorsInfrastructureAIModelsAIApplications733.732.624721.03639821832.92460.32387462.49927.62625Aggregate7.6555.12429MetricsareweighedbyAI-adjustedmktcap.资料来源：FactSet,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表7:AIcapexandR&DspendingarerisinginChina,butatmuchsmallerscalecomparedwithitsglobalcompetitors1,2421,2421,070898+12%+19%188HyperscalerCapex^AIuniverseCapexAIuniverseR&D2,5002,0001,5001,0005000+8%+28%+12%1,397+16%167+14%167+3%251_4%240+24%147+14%2,1491,9931,2201,561818243119143+52%资料来源：FactSet,IBES,高盛全球投资研究部2026年10月11日9FactSetRevereBusinessIndustryClassificationSystem(RBICS)andGSsectoralAIexposureestimatesRBICSisamulti-sectorclassificationframeworkdesignedtorevealacompany’struesectorexposuresbyanalyzingitsprimaryandancillaryrevenuestreams.Inessence,itnormalizesnon-standardizedbusinesssegmentreports,mappingcompanies’segmentrevenuestogranularsectors.TheRBICSmatrixstructureconsistsof12anchorsectors,6levelsofdepth,andover1,800individualsectorgroupsatthemostgranularsectorlevel.Thisresultsinaquantifiedmulti-sectorparticipationtreeforeachcompany,enablingeasycomparison,screening,andgrouping.Thisrevenue-basedapproachmakesRBICSaneffectivetoolinprovidinghighvisibilityintoacompany’sbusinessoperations,andenablinginvestorstoscreenforfirmswithspecificrevenueexposuretospecificAI-relatedactivities.WeapplytheRBICSframeworkonallChineselistedcompanies(~7,000),amongwhich,weidentify3,170namesthatspreadacross249RBICSsub-industriesthataredirectlyrelatedoradjacenttotheextendedAIvaluechainperGStop-downandbottom-upassumptions.图表8:Ourtop图表8:Ourtop-downandbottom-upassumptionsonsectoralAIrevenueexposuresMajorAIindustriesAIadjustedratiobyRBICSLevel6Sub-industry(ratio=100%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%VolatileMemoryChipsElectronicMaterialsFront-EndProcessingEquipSemiconductorFoundriesServerComputerSystems80%90%100%AssemblySvcs MobileGames OnlineAdsSvcsMobileAppSoftwareInternet&OnlineSvcsOperatingSystemSoftwareAlternativeEnergyVehiclesBusiness&PersonalSystems EnterpriseTechConsulting Industry-SpecificITSvcs OnlineDepartmentStores OnlineGamingPlatforms ElectronicPaymentsEntertainmentContent…MinorAIindustries(ratio<100%)2026年10月11日10图表9:TherevenueexposurestoAIvarysignificantlyacrosssectorsinChina100%90%100%90%47% 43% --8%5%5%5%4%3%87%87%61% l70%60%50%40%30%20%0%资料来源：FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部Alibaba.sRevenueSplitbyRBlCSSub.lndustryAlibaba.sRevenueSplitbyRBlCSSub.lndustry23%14%63%23%6%AggregateAIadjustedAIProductivitySoftwareInternetandOnlineServicesInternetDepartmentStores100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%Note:BasedonRBICSsub-industryrevenueexposure;inter-segmenteliminationsarenotaccountedfor.InternetDepartmentStores&InternetandOnlineServices(e.g.,e-commerce,delivery,etc.)areclassifiedasminorAI-related,soonly10%oftheirrevenueiscountedasAI-related.图表10:Forinstance,perRBICS’definition,AIbusinessesrepresent~30%ofAlibaba’stotalrevenue资料来源：FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部2026年10月11日11TwoAIstoriesinChinanWithinthebroadChineseAIequityuniverse(3,000+namesinfull,1,700+companieswithoverUS$100mnmarketcap),besidesorganizingstocksintothe5AIlayers,theycanbebucketedintotwomaingroupsaccordingtotheirrevenuedriversgeographically.nThefirstgroup,whichcontains360+listedstockswithanaggregatetotalmarketcapofUS$1.7tn,isexport-orientedAIfirmswhichgeneratemorethan40%oftheirrevenuesabroad.Thematically,theymostlyresideintheAIInfraandPowersegmentsandareoftenregardedbyinvestorsasproxiesfortheAIcapexboomintheWest.nAttheotherendofthespectrum,wehaveidentified880+nameswithatotalmarketcapitalizationofUS$3.2tnthatprimarilyservethedomesticChinesemarket(<10%ofrevenueoverseas)whereAIcapexbyChinesehyperscalers/CSPshasalsorisensignificantly,AIapplicationdemandandusecaseshaveblossomed,andpolicycommitmenttopromoteAIself-sufficiencyappearsstrong.nChineseAIexportershadposted126%returnsfromearly2025toJune2026,outpacingtheirdomestic-orientedpeersby84pp,mostlyledbytheirsuperiorearningsdeliveryandgrowthprospects.But,amidtheglobalAIselloffsincelateJune,theyhavelost23%fromtheirrecentpeak,reversingtheiroutperformancebyaround10ppvs.thedomesticAIfirmswhichhavehelduprelativelywellsincetheearly-Summercorrection.nOurtop-downreturnanalysisshowsthatChineseAIexportershaveexhibitedhigherreturnbetatotheglobalAIequitybetathantheirdomesticpeers,andhavebeenmorelinkedwithgeopolitics(proxiedbyourUS-ChinaRelations-Barometer).ThedomesticAIcompanies,however,aremoresensitivetoChineseAIcapextrendandAIpolicymomentum(atext-basedbarometer)withinChina,potentiallyofferingdiversificationbenefitstointernationalinvestors.2026年10月11日12图表11:ChineseAIexportershaveledtheirdomesticpeersoncomparativelystrongerprofitgrowthandfinancialperformanceExporterHybridDomesticAIChinaAI#ofstocks3671,9158883170Marketcap($bn)1,7232,6083,2377568performanceYTDperformance(%)12.5Past3yearsreturn(%)151.2(16.5)25.319.3Fundamentals26EROE(%)191417162Q26netmargin(%)8.27.716.310.122-25EPSCAGR(%)5.8(2.8)2.625-28EEPSCAGR(%)80.026.042.639.0Avg26/27EEPSrevision(%)22.1(2.7)(8.1)1.8Valuation27EP/E(x)26x22x37x26x27EP/B(x)4.2x3.0x4.3x3.6x1.0x0.8x1.2x1.0xNote(1):Metricsarecohort-aggregatedandweightedbyAI-adjustedmarketcap.()indicatenegative(2)Greenareamarkthecohortthatscreensbestoneachmetric—highestgrowth/returns资料来源：Factset,高盛全球投资研究部2026年10月11日13图表12:Thetwovalue-addedchainsintheChineseAIuniverseCompaniesareselectedbasedontheirtotalmktcapineachlayer.资料来源：Factset,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年10月11日14图表13:Infra,Semi,andModelhaveperformedthebestinthepast2yearswithintheChineseAIequityuniverse资料来源：FactSet,万得,高盛全球投资研究部图表15:BothdomesticAIfirmsandexportersareexpectedbyconsensustooutgrowthebroadermarket8007006005004003002001000202020212022202320242025202020212022202320242025资料来源：FactSet,万得,IBES,高盛全球投资研究部图表14:AIexportershaveledtheirdomesticpeersuntilrecently183183141151AIexportervsDomesticAIreChinaAIexporterChinaDomesticAIAIexportervsDomesticAI-RHS(Perf)2402202001801601401201008060DomesticAIoutperformedAIexporterby10ppsincetherecentpeaktheconstituents18016014012010080Note:basedweighted)of(Perf)200130Dec-24Feb-25Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25OctDec-24Feb-25Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26Aug-26资料来源：Factset,高盛全球投资研究部图表16:ExportersseemareasonableproxyfortheAIcapexcycleintheUS,whilethedomesticfirmsarebetterlinkedwithdomesticAIpolicymomentumDec-24Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25DecDec-24Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26Jun-26Sep-2636MrollingcorrelationAIExporterindexlevelvsUScapexrevisionsDomesticAIindexlevelvsChinaAIpolicy(Reversed)-RHS-1.00-0.80-0.60-0.40-0.200.000.200.400.600.801.000.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0资料来源：FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部图表17:BroadlyChineseAIexportersaremorelinkedwithexternalAIfactors,whiledomesticfirmsarecomparativelymoresensitivetolocalAIpolicyandcapex资料来源：Factset,万得,国家统计局,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年10月11日15MonetizingAIinChineseequities1)ChineseAIExportLeadersnMuchlikeourstrategicoptimismaroundthe“GoingGlobal”theme,webelieveChineseAIexportersasagroupcouldfurthergainglobalmarketshareonthebacktheirstrongcostcompetitiveness,manufacturingcapabilityandefficiency,R&Dintensity,andglobalvisionandexecutioncapability.nFundamentally,theyareexpectedbyconsensusestimatestogrowearningsby42%CAGRoverthenext2yearsonacceleratingtop-linegrowthandmoderatemarginexpansionpotential.nRegulatory/sanctionuncertainty,tradetariffs,andprotectionistpolicyarekeyriskstotheiroverseasexpansionambitions.Inthisvein,webelieveChineseAIexporterswithalready-highmarketshareglobally(lowerriskofbeingsubstituted),acceleratingoverseasrevenuegrowth(marketsharegainers),moredefensibletechnologymoats(highR&Dintensityvs.peers),strongcapexdiscipline(positivefreecashfiows),comparativelylesssensitivetogeopoliticaluncertainty(lowbetatoourUS-ChinaRelationsBarometer),andpreferablyinnon-tradablesectors,suchasbiotechandpharma,seembetterpositioned.nTheseformthebuildingblocksofourChineseAIExportLeadersscreen,whichcontains20GSBuy/Neutral-ratednamesacross12AI-relatedindustries.Theyonaveragegenerated66%oftheir1H26revenuefromoverseasmarkets,tradeat21x2027P/E,andareforecastedbysell-sideconsensustodeliver38%EPSCAGRoverthenext2years.图表18:ChineseAIfirmshavegainedrevenuesharegloballyacrosstheboardChinaChinarevenuesharegloballybyAIlayer/aggregatePowerSemiconductorsInfrastructureChina(All)AIApplication60%50%40%30%20%10%0%201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026E2027E资料来源：Factset,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表19:OurExportLeadersscreenisexpectedbyconsensustooutgrowtheaggregateChineseAIuniverseonhigherprofitability...ChinaAIChinaAIUniverseExportLeaders69635126EP/E(x)26EP/B(x)26EROE(%)25-28EEPSCAGR(%)6.73.98070605040302002724Overseassales(%)25-28ESPSCAGR(%)25252928资料来源：Factset,高盛全球投资研究部2026年10月11日16图表20:ChineseAIExportLeaders’valuationshavefallentothelow-endoftherecent-yearrangeDec-24Feb-25Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Dec-24Feb-25Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26Aug-26ChineseAIExportLeaders12mfPE-RHSOverseasrevenue%(cap-weightedwithsinglestockweightcapat15%)Performance50%51%20016.5x25023021019017015013011090705026252423222120fPE(x)Index48%56%资料来源：FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部图表21:ConstituentsfromourExportLeadersscreenresidein12differentAIsegmentsChineseAIChineseAIExportLeadersDataCenterPower4%PCB/CCL7%Memory8%DataCenter6%ConsumerHardware13%Healthcare7%OpticalTransceivers32%HumanoidRobots11%AutonomousDriving8%(cap-weightedwithsinglestockweightcapat15%)LLM&MultimodalFoundryOSAT2%资料来源：FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部图表22:OurChineseAIExportLeadersscreencomprises20namesacross12AI-relatedindustriesRatingsarefromGSEquityResearchAnalysts资料来源：万得,FactSet,彭博,IBES,高盛全球投资研究部2026年10月11日172)DomesticChineseAIChampionsnDevelopingAIhasbeenelevatedtoanationalpolicyobjectiveandpriority.Inthepastcoupleofyears,“AI+”hasbeenheavilyfeaturedinmanyconsequentialpolicydocuments,notablythe15thFiveYearPlan.OnGSforecasts,ChineseAI-relatedTotalAddressableMarketShare(TAM)across21industriescouldreachUS$3-4tnby2030,equivalentto28%CAGRoverthenext4years.nComparedwithpolicyactionsthatweretakeninprevioustargeted,industry-specificeasingepisodes,thesupportfromthegovernmentthistimearoundonAI/Techisarguablymoreexpansive,coveringnotonlythesupplyside(e.g.government-ledinvestments),butalsodemand-orientedmeasuresandcapital-market-focusedpolicies.nPerhapsduetothisstrongpoliticaldrive,certainAIlocalizationproxieslocalization,especiallythoseintheSemisupplychain,aretradingatmeaningfulvaluationpremiumsovertheirglobalpeers.Assuch,overpayingforgrowth(certainty)andhighpolicypremiumcouldbethekeyriskstoconsiderandhedgewhenengaginginthistheme.nInourDomesticChineseAIChampionslist,wescreenfor20GSBuy/Neutral-ratedlocalAIcompanieswith:a)strongR&Dspendingintensitycomparedwithdomesticpeers;b)higherpricesensitivitytodomesticAIcapextrend;c)positivepricesensitivitytodomesticAIpolicy,measuredbyourtext-basedindicator;and,d)moderatevaluationpremiumsvs.China/globalpeers(onaPEGratiobasis).nThislisttradeson23xfPEon33%EPSCAGRonconsensusestimates,weightedbymarketcapandcappedat15%topreventlarge-capdominance.Onaverage,theyderivemorethan90%oftheirsalesfromthedomesticmarket,andarefairlysensitivetoChineseAIpolicydynamicsthanglobalgeopoliticaltensions.2026年10月11日18图表23:ThetotalTAMfor21AI-orientedindustriescouldadduptoUS$3-4tn(by2030E)perGSsectoranalysts’estimates20252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EAIApplicationAIModel(124%)Infrastructure(32%)SemiconductorsPower40003500300025002000150010005000TotalimpliedTAMforChineseAIUniverseFormoredetails,seeCHINASTRATEGY|AIchangesthegame(Part3):Therisksof(not)investinginAI2026年10月11日19图表24:PolicysupporttoAIseemsbroad-basedandexpansive2026ultra-longspecialsovereignbonds:RMB800bnofRMB1.3tnallocatedtothe“TwoMajors”;secondtrancheexplicitlyincludesAIPolicyfinanceRMB500bnofnewpolicy-financingtools;about40%directedthroughCDB/EXIMtothedigitaleconomyandAISemiconductorfundsBigFundIII:RMB344bnfocusedonadvancedpackaging,equipment,andAIchipsStateindustrialfundsNationalAIIndustryInvestmentFund:RMB60bnVenturecapitalStateVCGuidanceFund:RMB100bninitialfunding,targetingaboutRMBVenturecapitalover20yearsLocalgovernmentfundsWuhan:RMB260bnmemorypackage;Shenzhen:RMB10bn