摩根士丹利-管理型贸易取代价格战-中国汽车出口进入品质时代？-Managed trade replaces price war-China auto exports enter the quality era-20261013

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Up.vdauist

October13,202611:07AMGMT

MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+

TimHsiao

EquityAnalyst

Tim.Hsiao@

JoeyXu,CFA

EquityAnalyst

Joey.Xu@

ShelleyWang,CFA

EquityAnalyst

Shelley.Wang@

PeggyWang

ChinaAutos&SharedMobility|AsiaPacific

+8522848-1982

+8523963-0337

+8523963-0047

Managedtradereplacespricewar-Chinaautoexportsenterthequalityera?

ResearchAssociate

+8523963-3934

Peggy.Pc.Wang@

JunmingZhang

KeyTakeaways

ResearchAssociate

Junming.Zhang1@

+8522848-5412

ChinaAutos&SharedMobility

WehostedacallwiththeExecutiveDeputySecretaryGeneralfromCAAM,followingtheChina-EUtalksandVATrebatecut;weprovideasummary:

TheChina-EUtalksturntarifftensionsintomanagedtrade,favouringscale.

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewIn-Line

Mediareportsofa350-400khybridquota,anchoredon2025's302kEU

shipments,wouldindicateacaponflowsthathit490kinJan-Aug(+180%YoY).

ThesafeguardfromagreementstocurbChinesehybridexportstotheEU,validuptofouryears,isunlikelytotakeeffectfullybefore2H27.

Hybridsmayalsoenterthepriceundertakingregime,benchmarkedtoEUlandedpricesplusduty,erasingthepriceedge.

Chinaisprovidingstrongerguidancetoitsexporters.OEMauthorisationfor

exportswithin180daysofregistration,curbsondisorderlyunderpricing,anda4pptVATrebatecutto9%squeezesub-scaleandgrey-channelplayers,whilelocalised

outputsidestepstheregulatoryhit.Localisationistheendgame,butcross-bordermanagement,nottechnology,isthebottleneck.

Weakdemandraisesthestakes.Domesticretailsalesofpassengervehiclesfell22.4%YoYinJan-Sepandareexpectedtostaysoftfortwoyears,giveneconomicweakness,whileNEVexportgrowthslowedto11%.AnyeasinginUS-Chinatraderelationswouldbethekeyupsideswingfactor.

Stockview:Margindispersionwillwidenbutsetupfavoursthosewhoarewell-prepared.WefavourBYD,Geely,andSAIC,withoverseasplantsandstronghybridportfolios;sub-scaleexportersaremostexposedthrough2027.

todobusinesswith

tanleyResearch.Asaresult,

investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestment

ndotherimportantdisclosures,

ction,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

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Update

ValuationMethodologyandRisks

BYDCompanyLimited(002594.SZ)

Blendedmethodology,weighted25%bull,50%base,25%bear.WethinkincrementalvolumefromADASandultra-fastchargingadoptioncouldpartiallyoffsetthefiercecompetitiveland-scapeinthemassmarketsegment.

Weapplya5%premiumtoourH-sharebullandbearcasescenariovalues;nopremiuminourbearcase.

Weuseanexchangerateof1.06RMB/HKD.

RiskstoUpside

Newmodellaunchschedule

Faster-than-expectedoverseasexpansion

Stronger-than-expecteddemandforNEVsglobally

RiskstoDownside

Lackofprogressinoverseasexpansionamidrisingprotectionism

Weaker-than-expecteddemandforNEVs

Worse-than-expectedgrossmargin

GeelyAutomobileHoldings(0175.HK)

Basecase,DCF.WeassumeaWACCof11.2%andterminalgrowthrateof3%.

RiskstoUpside

NEVmarketsharegaindomestically.

MoremeaningfulreductioninlossesforitsNEVbusinesses,viascalebenefits.

Stronger-than-expectedprofitability,drivenbyhigheroverseassales.

RiskstoDownside

Morenotablethanexpectedslowdownindomesticvehicledemand.

ExpandinglossesatGeely'sNEVbusinessesamidpricecompetition.

Aslowdowninoverseassalesduetocompetitionandprotectionism.BYDCompanyLimited(1211.HK)

hinkincrementalvolume

Blendedmethodology,

RiskstoUpside

Newmodellaunches

fromADASandultra-fastchargingadoptioncouldpartiallyoffsetthefiercecompetitiveland-scapeinthemassmarketsegment.

Faster-than-expectedoverseasexpansion

Stronger-than-expecteddemandforNEVsglobally

RiskstoDownside

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Update

Lackofprogressinoverseasexpansionamidrisingprotectionism

Weaker-than-expecteddemandforNEVsglobally

Worse-than-expectedgrossmargin

SAICMotorCorp.Ltd.(600104.SS)

Basecase,DCF.WeassumeaWACCof10.4%andterminalgrowthof2%.RiskstoUpside

Notablelocalbrandmarketshareexpansionoffalowbase

Globalexpansionrolloutleveragingthecompany'sMGbrand

Gainsfromstrategicinvestments

SuccessfulNEVtransitionbyJV

RiskstoDownside

SlowerdomesticdemandtodwarfSAIC'srestructuringefforts

AdditionalcostsfromJVs'NEVtransition

Initiallosseswithrespecttoglobalexpansion

Unexpectedlossesfromnon-corebusinesses

MorganStanleyResearch3

4

Update

DisclosureSection

TheinformationandopinionsinMorganStanleyResearchwerepreparedoraredisseminatedbyMorganStanleyAsiaLimited(whichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontents)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.(Registrationnumber199206298Z)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)SecuritiesPteLtd(Registrationnumber200008434H),regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore(whichacceptslegalresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch),and/orMorganStanleyTaiwanLimitedand/orMorganStanley&CoInternationalplc,SeoulBranch,and/orMorganStanleyAustraliaLimited(A.B.N.67003734576,holderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.233742,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents),and/orMorganStanleyWealthManagementAustraliaPtyLtd(A.B.N.19009145555,holderofAustralianfinancial

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Forimportantdisclosures,stockpricechartsandequityratinghistoriesregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreport,pleaseseetheMorganStanleyResearchDisclosureWebsiteat

/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:Research

Management

),NewYork,NY,10036USA.

Forvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithanyrecommendation,ratingorpricetargetreferencedinthisresearchreport,pleasecontacttheClientSupportTeamasfollows:US/Canada+1800303-2495;HongKong+8522848-5999;LatinAmerica+1718754-5444(U.S.);London+44(0)20-7425-8169;Singapore+656834-6860;Sydney+61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.AlternativelyyoumaycontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY10036USA.

AnalystCertification

Thefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnot

receivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:TimHsiao;PeggyWang;ShelleyWang,CFA;JoeyXu,CFA;JunmingZhang..

GlobalResearchConflictManagementPolicy

MorganStanleyResearchhasbeenpublishedinaccordancewithourconflictmanagementpolicy,whichisavailableat

/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.A

Portugueseversionofthepolicycanbefoundat.br

ImportantRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompanies

AsofSeptember30,2026,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch:BethelAutomotiveSafetySystemsCoLtd,BrillianceChinaAutomotive,BYDCompanyLimited,ChangzhouXingyuAutomotiveLightingSys,EHangHoldingsLtd,GreatWallMotorCompanyLimited,HesaiGroup,LiAutoInc.,NexteerAutomotiveGroup,NingboJoysonElectronicCorp,NIOInc.,VoyahAutomotiveTechnologyCo.Ltd,,WeRideInc,XPengInc.,ZhongshengGroupHoldings.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicoffering(or144Aoffering)ofsecuritiesofHorizonRobotics,WeRideInc,ZhongshengGroupHoldings.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromHorizonRobotics,WeRideInc.

Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromBYDCompanyLimited,ChangzhouXingyuAutomotiveLightingSys,ChongqingChanganAutomobile,EHangHoldingsLtd,FuyaoGlassIndustryGroup,GeelyAutomobileHoldings,GreatWallMotorCompanyLimited,HesaiGroup,HorizonRobotics,HuizhouDesaySVAutomotiveCoLtd,LiAutoInc.,MinthGroupLimited,NingboJoysonElectronicCorp,NingboTuopuGroupCoLtd,NIOInc.,RoboSenseTechnologyCoLtd,WeRideInc,XPengInc.,ZhongshengGroupHoldings.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforproductsandservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingservicesfromBYDCompanyLimited,EHangHoldingsLtd,GeelyAutomobileHoldings,HesaiGroup,HorizonRobotics,MinthGroupLimited,ZhongshengGroupHoldings.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasprovidedorisprovidinginvestmentbankingservicesto,orhasaninvestmentbankingclientrelationshipwith,thefollowingcompany:BYDCompanyLimited,ChangzhouXingyuAutomotiveLightingSys,ChongqingChanganAutomobile,EHangHoldingsLtd,FuyaoGlassIndustryGroup,GeelyAutomobileHoldings,GreatWallMotorCompanyLimited,HesaiGroup,HorizonRobotics,HuizhouDesaySVAutomotiveCoLtd,LiAutoInc.,MinthGroupLimited,NingboJoysonElectronicCorp,NingboTuopuGroupCoLtd,NIOInc.,RoboSenseTechnologyCoLtd,WeRideInc,XPengInc.,ZhongshengGroupHoldings.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhaseitherprovidedorisprovidingnon-investmentbanking,securities-relatedservicestoand/orinthepasthasenteredintoanagreementtoprovideservicesorhasaclientrelationshipwiththefollowingcompany:BYDCompanyLimited,ChinaMeiDongAutoHoldingsLtd,EHangHoldingsLtd,GeelyAutomobileHoldings,HesaiGroup,HorizonRobotics,MinthGroupLimited,NIOInc.,ZhongshengGroupHoldings.

ofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandoverastrategists'compensationisnot

TheequityresearchanalystsorstrategistsprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationofMorganvariousfactors,includingquality

linkedtoinvestmentbankingorcapitalmarketstransactionsperformedbyMorganStanleyortheprofitabilityorrevenuesofparticulartradingdesks.

asprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatarethesubjectofthedebtresearchrepoCertaindisclosureslistedabovearealsoforcompliancewithapplicableregulationsinnon-USjurisdictions.

MorganStanleyanditsaffiliatesdobusinessthatrelatestocompanies/instrumentscoveredinMorganStanleyResearch,includingmarketmaking,providingliquidity,fundmanagement,commercialbanking,extensionofcredit,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleysellstoandbuysfromcustomersthesecurities/instrumentsofcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearchonaprincipalbasis.MorganStanleymayhaveapositioninthedebtofthe.MorganStanleytradesormaytrade

STOCKRATINGS

MorganStanleyusesarelativeratingsystemusingtermssuchasOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedorUnderweight(seedefinitionsbelow).MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,holdandsell.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinMorganStanleyResearch.Inaddition,sinceMorganStanleyResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadMorgan

MorganStanleyResearch5

Update

StanleyResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.

GlobalStockRatingsDistribution

(asofSeptember30,2026)

TheStockRatingsdescribedbelowapplytoMorganStanley'sFundamentalEquityResearchanddonotapplytoDebtResearchproducedbytheFirm.

Fordisclosurepurposesonly(inaccordancewithFINRArequirements),weincludethecategoryheadingsofBuy,Hold,andSellalongsideourratingsofOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweight.MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,hold,andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings(seedefinitionsbelow).Tosatisfyregulatoryrequirements,wecorrespondOverweight,ourmostpositivestockrating,withabuyrecommendation;wecorrespondEqual-weightandNot-RatedtoholdandUnderweighttosellrecommendations,respectively.

CoverageUniverse

InvestmentBankingClients(IBC)

OtherMaterialInvestmentServices

Clients(MISC)

StockRatingCategory

Count

%ofTotal

Count

%ofTotalIBC

%ofRating

Category

Count

%ofTotalOther

MISC

Overweight/Buy

1599

43%

455

48%

28%

783

44%

Equal-weight/Hold

1563

42%

394

42%

25%

763

43%

Not-Rated/Hold

2

0%

1

0%

50%

1

0%

Underweight/Sell

570

15%

96

10%

17%

227

13%

Total

3,734

946

1774

DataincludecommonstockandADRscurrentlyassignedratings.InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyreceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months.Duetoroundingoffofdecimals,thepercentagesprovidedinthe"%oftotal"columnmaynotadduptoexactly100percent.

AnalystStockRatings

Overweight(O).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Equal-weight(E).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Not-Rated(NR).Currentlytheanalystdoesnothaveadequateconvictionaboutthestock'stotalreturnrelativetotheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Underweight(U).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Unlessotherwisespecified,thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinMorganStanleyResearchis12to18months.

AnalystIndustryViews

Attractive(A):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeattractivevs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.

In-Line(I):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeinlinewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.

Cautious(C):Theanalystviewstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthswithcautionvs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.

Benchmarksforeachregionareasfollows:NorthAmerica-S&P500;LatinAmerica-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCILatinAmericaIndex;Europe-MSCIEurope;Japan-TOPIX;Asia-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCIsub-regionalindexorMSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.

StockPrice,PriceTargetandRatingHistory(SeeRatingDefinitions)

6

MorganStanley|RESEARCHUPDATE

Industry:ChinaAutos&SharedMobility

BYDCompanyLimited(002594.SZ)-Asof10/13/26GMTinCNY

10/01

2023

10/01

2024

10/01

2026

StockRatingHistory:10/1/21:U/A;2/8/22:E/A;8/25/22:E/I;4/14/25:0/I

PriceTargetHistory:6/8/21:45;11/16/21:77.33;2/8/22:81.67;7/8/22:101;113/22:80;3/20/23:78.33;7/28/23:91;10/31/23:90;1/8/24:77.33;3/10/24:72.67;8/7/24:68;9/17/24:76.67;1/13/25:89.67;3/18/25:101.67;4/14/25:144.33;

8/1/25:144;8/30/25:136;10/13/25:129;10/31/25:125;5/11/26:120;9/15/26:113

Source:MorganStanleyResearchDateFormat:MM/DD/YYPriceTarget-·

StockPrice(NotCoveredbyCurrentAnalyst)一StockPrice(CoveredbyCurrentAnalyst)

StockandIndustryRatings(abbreviationsbelow)appearas◆StockRating/IndustryVieu

NoPriceTargetAssigned(NR)

StockRatings:0verueight(0)Equal-ueight(E)Underueight(U)Not-Rated(NR)NoRating

Available(NA)

IndustryView:Attractive(R)In-line(I)Cautious(C)NoRating(NR)

EffectiveJanuary13,2014,thestockscoveredbyHorganStanleyAsiaPacificwillberatedrelativetotheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam³s)coverage.

EffectiveJanuary13,2014,theindustryviwbenchmarksforHorganStanleyAsiaPacificareasfollos:releuantHSCIcoutry

indexorHSCIsub-regionalindexorHSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.

BYDCompanyLimited(1211.HK)-Asof10/13/26GMTinHKD

Industry:ChinaAutos&SharedMobility

10/0110/0110/0110/01

2023202420252026StockRatingHistory:10/1/21:U/A;2/8/22:E/A;8/25/22:E/I;4/1

PriceTargetHistory:6/8/21:132;11/16/21:242;2/8/22:256;7/88/23:249;

10/31/23:242;1/8/24:239;3/10/24:225;8/7/24:209;9/17/24:230;1/13/25:270;3/18/25:307;4/14/25:438;6/1/25:146;

8/30/25:137;10/13/25:130;10/31/25:126;5/11/26:121;9/15/26:114

Source:MorganStanleyResearchDateFormat:MM/DD/YYPriceTarget-NoPriceTargetAssigned(NA)

StockandIndustryRatings(abbreviationsbelow)appearas+StockRating/IndustryVieu

StockPrice(NotCoveredbyCurrentAnalyst)一StockPrice(CoveredbyCurrentAnalyst)

StockRatings:Overueight(0)Equal-ueight(E)Underueight(U)Not-Ra

IndustryView:Attractive(R)In-1ine(I)Cautious(C)oRatin

EffectiveJanuary13,2014,thestockscoveredbyMorganStanleyAsiaPacificwillberatedrelativetotheanalyst'sindustry

(orindustryteam³s)coverage。

EffectiveJanuary13,2014,theindustryvieubenchmarksforHorganStanleyAsiaPacificareasfollous:relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCIsub-regionalindexorHSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.

MorganStanleyRESEARCHUPDATE

|

GeelyAutomobileHoldings(0175.HK)-Asof10/13/26GMTinHKD

Industry:ChinaAutos&SharedMobility

10/01

10/01

10/01

10/01

2023

2024

2025

2026

Stock

Rating

History:10/1/21:0/A;8/25/22:0/I;2/7/23:NA/I;6/26/24:0/I

PriceTargetHistory:9/1/21:35;3/16/22:20;6/28/22:22;2/7/23:NA;6/26/24:11.2;1/13/25:17;2/28/25:21;8/15/25:24;12/8/25:25;5/7/26:28;9/15/26:27

Source:MorganStanleyResearchDateFormat:MM/DD/YYPriceTarget-

StockPrice(NotCoveredbyCurrentAnalyst)—StockPrice(CoveredbyCurrentAnalyst)

StockandIndustryRatings(abbreviationsbelow)appearas+StockRating/IndustryVieu

StockRatings:0verueight(03Equa1-ueight(E)Underueight(U)Not-Rated(NR)NoRating

NoPriceTarget

Available(NR)

Assigned(NA)

IndustryView:Attractive(R)In-line(I)Cautious(C)NoRating(NR)

EffectiveJanuary13,2014,thestockscoveredbyHorganStanleyAsiaPacificwillberatedrelativetotheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam³s)coverage.

EffectiveJanuary13,2014,theindustryviewbenchmarksforHorganStanleyAsiaPacificareasfollous:relevantMSCIcountry

indexorMSCIsub-regionalindexorHSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.

SAICMotorCorp.Ltd.(600104.SS)-Asof10/13/26GMTinCNYIndustry:ChinaAutos&SharedMobility

30

25

20

15

10

10/0110/0110/01

202320242025

StockRatingHistory:10/1/21:E/A;11/25/21:0/A;8/25/22:0/I

PriceTargetHistory:6/24/21:23;11/25/21:27;8/25/22:22;3/20.

6/3/25:22.2;9/4/25:22.9;6/16/26:20.1;9/15/26:19.9

Source:MorganStanleyResearchDateFormat:MM/DD/YYPriceTarget-

StockPrice(NotCoveredbyCurrentAnalyst)一StockPrice(CoveredbyCurrentAnalyst)

StockandIndustryRatings(abbreviationsbelou)appearas◆StockRating/IndustryVieu

StockRatings:0verueight(0)Equal-ueight(E)Underueight(U)Not-Rated(NR)NoRating

EffectiveJanuary13,2014,thestockscoveredbyMorganStanleyAsiaPacifi

(orindustryteam³s)coverage.

IndustryView:Attractive(R)In-1ine(I)Cautious(C)NoRating(NR)

EffectiveJanuary13,2014,theindustryviewbenchmarksforHorganStanleyHs₁arac1+1careas

indexorHSCIsub-regionalindexorHSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.

10/01

2026

25:20.1;

NoPriceTargetAssigned(NA)

Available(NR)

analyst'sindustry