摩根士丹利-股票市场评论 2026 年 11 月 Equity Market Commentary - November 2026

Theindexperformanceisprovidedforillustrativepurposesonlyandisnotmeanttodepicttheperformanceofaspecificinvestment.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.

November2026|SLIMMON’STAKE1

EquityMarketCommentary

SLIMMON’STAKE|APPLIEDEQUITYTEAM|November2026

AUTHOR

Basedonthenumerousquestionswehavefielded,primarilyaboutthe

ANDREWSLIMMON

ManagingDirectorandSeniorPortfolio

Manager,AppliedEquityTeam

mid-termelectionsandOctober’stechnologysell-off,herearesomeinitialthoughts:

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Ialwaysworrywhenthereisoverarchingagreementonthenear-termmovementofthemarket.Ifit’ssoconsensus,willitreallyhappen?

WhenmosteveryWallStreetpunditisusingthesameplaybook,canitactuallycometrue?

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Sometimestheansweris“yes”.

AsweexitedSeptember,thepundit’splaybooksuggested:

1.Octoberisseasonallyarockymonthforstocks,especiallyfortheyear-to-dateleaders.

2.Inamid-termelectionyear,it’sevenworse.

3.Forshort-termtraders,theidealmovewouldbetopivotinto

quality,“safe”,risk-offstocks,andoutofgrowthandvaluecyclicalnames.

4.ButonlyforthemonthofOctober.

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Eventhoughthiswassoconsensus,thatpivotwasexactlytherightmove!

Themarketoverallwobbled.Consumerstaplesandhealthcarestocks

performedgreat,whilethetechnologyandcommunicationssectorswerebludgeoned.

Growthstocksperformedhorrendously,andstocksperceivedasdefensiveshined

.1

1BloombergasofOctober31,2026

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Thereturnsreferredtointhecommentaryarethoseoftherepresentativeindices,unlessotherwisenotedandarenotmeanttodepicttheperformanceofaspecificinvestment.Pastperformanceisnotguaranteeoffutureresults.

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Ifthemarketseemstobefollowingthescriptsowell,whatdoesNovemberhistoricallysuggest?Theplaybookshiftsleadership.

Aswehaveconsistentlyarticulated,thepostmid-termperiodhasbeenagoodtimeforstocks,asthepartynotinpowergainsseatsandthemarketultimatelyheavesasighofrelief.

Andrallies.

GridlockinDCisbelovedbyWallStreet.

ItdoesnotmatterwhetherDemocratsorRepublicansaregainingseats.

Whentheemotionsurroundingtheelectionsdiesdownistoughtocall,butthatishistoricallywhathappens

.2

Sincetheplaybookhasworkedsofar,Iseenoreasontoassumeitwon’tcontinue.

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Overmanyyearsinthemarkets,IhaveobservedthatwheneverinvestorsareconsumedbywhathappensinDCratherthanfocusingontheeconomyandcompanyfundamentals,ithasbeenanexcellenttimetobeabuyerofstocks.

Furthermore,IwouldsaytheoverestimationofthemacroimpactonstockshastobeoneofthebiggesterrorsIseeinvestorsmake.

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Let’sfaceit,thebusinessmediafuelsthat.

Ican’tblamethem.

Discussingthepotentialmacroandgeopoliticalimpactsonstocksismuchmoreinterestingthanareviewofacompany’s10-Qor8-Kfinancialstatements.

AswemoveintoNovemberandpastthemid-termelections,Iremainabelieverthattheplaybookwillworkagain.

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Inotherwords,Iaminthecampthattheyear-endrallyisnotdead.

AndIdon’tthinkarallywillbeledbycompaniessellingtoothpasteand/ordiapers,whichwerethestandoutcompaniesinOctober.

IdoexpectarallywillbeledinsteadbythegrowthstocksthatwerehithardinOctober.

Andevensomevaluenameslikefinancials.

Hence,ifthemarketpivotsmoreoptimistically,theseOctoberwinnerswillgobacktobeinglaggards.Asmuchaswehaveasmatteringofdefensives,wecertainlyarenotaddingtothem.

InhindsightweshouldhaveownedmoreofthemgoingintoOctober,butitbecomesratherdifficulttonavigateifwethinktheywillonlyleadforonemonth!

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Anobviousquestionis,howcantechshineifa“bluewave”leadstoaslowdowninthedatacenterbuildout?Callmeslightlycynicalonthiscampaignrhetoric.

Yes,itmakesforgreatheadlinesforpoliticians,“nodatacentersinourcommunities.”

2Postmid-terms,theS&P500hasproducedapositive12-monthreturneverytimesince1950inception,withanaverage1yearreturn+16%.LPLResearch,Bloomberg,Fundstrat,Strategas.

EQUITYMARKETCOMMENTARY

Thereturnsreferredtointhecommentaryarethoseoftherepresentativeindices,unlessotherwisenotedandarenotmeanttodepicttheperformanceofaspecificinvestment.Pastperformanceisnotguaranteeoffutureresults.

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Butoncetheelectionisoverandtherealityofmassivelyfiscallystrappedlocalandstatebudgetsfacetheseelectedorreelectedpoliticians,hyperscalersandtheirdeeppocketswillbedifficulttoresist.

Ifhyperscalersmakecommitmentstoinfrastructure,publicservicesandeveneducationalfunds,Ithinkthisissuequietlygoesaway.

Ifyoudon’tbelieveme,youmightwanttoreaduponRichlandParishinLouisianaorDonaAnaCountyinNewMexico.

Intheend,thedatacenterbuildersgottheirway.

Meanwhile,thereissimplyalackofproofthatdemandforAiisslowing.

Whilethereisalwaysalotofnoisearoundearningsseason,realityisclear.

Thedemandforcomputepowerisaccelerating.

Ultimatelywhatdrivesstocksisstraightforward

:3

1.Whatistheearningsstory,andisitbetterorworsethanexpected?

2.WhatistheP/Emultipleonthoseearnings?

Tome,2026hasbeenallaboutabattlebetween#1and#2.

AllyearIhavestressedthattheeconomywasstrongerthanwhatWallStreetexpected,andthishasledtoconsistentpositiveearningsrevisions.

AsIhavearticulatedregularly,stocksdonotgodownforlongwhenfundamentalsareBETTERthanexpected.

Andthatisthestoryevenforthepastmonthwhentherewereallsortsofanxietiesaboutthemid-terms,thewar,and"youchooseyourmacroworry."

Earningsrevisionsjustcontinuetopushhigher.

However,consider:

Atthebeginningoftheyear,S&P500earningswereexpectedtogrowfrom2025to2026by+14.8%.

AsoflastFriday,October30th,thatnumberis+32.4%.

Allelseequal,themarketshouldalsobeupdramatically.

Butit’snot.

That’sbecausewehaveexperiencedaprettysignificantdeclineinwhatinvestorspayforthoseearnings.

WorsethanIexpected.

AtthebeginningoftheyearthemarketwastradingataforwardP/Eof22.1x.Todayit’sat18.3x

.4

3Stockprices=P/ExEarnings.

4Bloomberg.MarketdefinedastheS&P500.

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Whythedegradation?

Simple.

Interestratesarehigher,andtheFedhaspivotedtoaratehikingcycle.

IftheFediscommencingalongcampaigntoraiserates,thenIthinktheforwardP/Ewillcontinuetodecline,therebysuppressingreturns.

However,iftheyraiseratesonlyacoupleoftimesoverthenextyear,thenthemultiplehasprobablystoppeddeclining,andthiswonderfulearningsstorycanpowerthemarketmuchhigher.

Ifyouwanttoworryaboutthemarket,stopworryingaboutthemacro,politics,etc.andworryaboutthis,thekeyquestion:

Whatisthedurationanddepthofthetighteningcycle?

Seemstomethemonthlyinflationnumberswillbeprettykeytounderstandingtheanswer.

Ifinflationremainspersistentlyhigh,thenthemarketwillcontinuetopaylessforthoseearningswhileinvestorsrecalibratehowmuchpaintheFedwillexertthroughhigherrates.

However,iftheinflationprintsshowtheyaredirectionallymovingtowardtheFed's2%target,thentheP/Emultiplelikelystabilizesifnotbeginstoreflatebacktowardsthelevelsseenearlierin2026.

Idothinkthisistherealstoryfor2027.

Inthemeantime,asmuchasthe“safety”pivotwaspainfulinOctober,Idoexpectthemarkettofollowtheplaybookwherethemidtermsareaclearingeventandpostmid-terms,Q4hasbeenastrongperiod.

Andrew

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RiskConsiderations

Diversificationdoesnoteliminatetheriskofloss.Thereisnoassurancethataportfoliowillachieveitsinvestmentobjective.Portfoliosaresubjecttomarketrisk,whichisthepossibilitythatthemarketvaluesofsecuritiesownedbytheportfoliowilldeclineandmaythereforebelessthatwhatyoupaidforthem.Marketvaluescanchangedailyduetoeconomicandotherevents(e.g.naturaldisasters,healthcrises,terrorism,conflictsandsocialunrest)thataffectmarkets,countries,companiesorgovernments.Itisdifficulttopredictthetiming,duration,andpotentialadverseeffects(e.g.portfolioliquidity)ofevents.Accordingly,youcanlosemoneyinvestinginthisportfolio.Pleasebeawarethatthisportfoliomaybesubjecttocertainadditionalrisks.Ingeneral,equitiessecurities’valuesalsofluctuateinresponsetoactivitiesspecifictoacompany.Stocksofsmall-andmedium-capitalizationcompaniesentailspecialrisks,suchaslimitedproductlines,marketsandfinancialresources,andgreatermarketvolatilitythansecuritiesoflarger,moreestablishedcompanies.Investmentsinforeignmarketsentailspecialriskssuchascurrency,political,economic,marketandliquidityrisks.Illiquidsecuritiesmaybemoredifficulttosellandvaluethanpubliclytradedsecurities(liquidityrisks).Non-diversifiedportfoliosofteninvestinamorelimitednumberofissuers.Assuch,changesinthefinancialconditionormarketvalueofasingleissuermaycausegreatervolatility.Ai:Investingincompaniesinanticipationofacatalystevent,suchasAIadoption,carriestheriskthatsuchcatalystsmaynotoccur,maybedelayed,orthatthemarketmayreactdifferentlythanexpected.CompaniesfocusedonAImayhavelimitedproductlines,marketsorfinancialresources,andtheirmanagementandperformancemaybeparticularlyimpactedbyeventsthatadverselyaffectAIadoption,suchasrapidchangesinproducttechnologycycles,productobsolescence,governmentregulation,cybersecurityconcernsandcompetition.

DEFINITIONS

Theindexesareunmanagedanddonotincludeanyexpenses,feesorsalescharges.Itisnotpossibletoinvestdirectlyinanindex.Anyindexreferredtohereinistheintellectualproperty(includingregisteredtrademarks)oftheapplicablelicensor.Anyproductbasedonanindexisinnowaysponsored,endorsed,soldorpromotedbytheapplicablelicensoranditshallnothaveanyliabilitywithrespectthereto.TheS&P500®IndexmeasuresperformanceofthelargecapsegmentoftheU.S.equitiesmarket,coveringapproximately75%oftheU.S.market,including500leadingcompaniesintheU.S.economy.TheRussell1000Indexisanindexofapproximately1,000ofthelargestcompaniesintheU.S.equitymarket.TheRussell1000isasubsetoftheRussell3000Index.Itrepresentsthetopcompaniesbymarketcapitalization.TheRussell1000typicallycomprisesapproximately90%ofthetotalmarketcapitalizationofalllistedU.S.stocks.TheRussell1000®GrowthIndexmeasurestheperformanceofthelarge-capgrowthsegmentoftheUSequityuniverse.ItincludesthoseRussell1000companieswithrelativelyhigherprice-to-bookratios,higherI/B/E/Sforecastmediumterm(2year)growthandhighersalespersharehistoricalgrowth(5years).TheRussell1000®ValueIndexmeasurestheperformanceofthelarge-capvaluesegmentoftheUSequityuniverse.ItincludesthoseRussell.1000companieswithrelativelylowerprice-to-bookratios,lowerI/B/E/S.TheRussellAll-CapEqual-weightIndexmeasurestheperformanceoftheU.S.equitymarketacrossthefullcapitalizationspectrumbyincludinglarge_,mid_,andsmall_capitalizationstocksfromtheRussellAll_Capuniverse,withequalweightingappliedratherthanmarket_capitalizationweighting.UnderFTSERussell’sequal_weightmethodology,eachconstituenthasanapproximatelyidenticalweight,whichreducestheinfluenceofthelargestcompaniesandincreasesexposuretosmaller_capitalizationstocksrelativetotraditionalcap_weightedindices.Theindexisrules_based,transparent,andperiodicallyrebalancedtomaintainequalweightsandreflectchangesintheunderlyinginvestableuniverse.TheMSCIWorldIndexisafreefloatadjustedmarketcapitalizationweightedindexthatisdesignedtomeasuretheglobalequitymarketperformanceofdevelopedmarkets.Theterm“freefloat”representstheportionofsharesoutstandingthataredeemedtobeavailableforpurchaseinthepublicequitymarketsbyinvestors.TheperformanceoftheIndexislistedinU.S.dollarsandassumesreinvestmentofnetdividends.TheMSCIEuropeIndexcaptureslargeandmidcaprepresentationacross15DevelopedMarkets(DM)countriesinEurope.TheShanghaiCompositeIndexisacapitalization-weightedstockmarketindexdesignedtotrackthepriceperformanceofallA-sharesandB-shareslistedontheShanghaiStockExchange.Standarddeviationisameasurethatisusedtoquantifytheamountofvariationordispersionofasetofdatavalues.TheMSCIChinaIndexcaptureslargeandmidcaprepresentationacrossChinaAshares,Hshares,Bshares,Redchips,Pchipsandforeignlistings(e.g.ADRs).TheNASDAQIndexisamarketcapitalization-weightedindexencompassingover2,500stocks,withastrongfocusonthetechnologysector.

IMPORTANTINFORMATION

Thereisnoguaranteethatanyinvestmentstrategywillworkunderallmarketconditions,andeachinvestorshouldevaluatetheirabilitytoinvestforthelong-term,especiallyduringperiodsofdownturninthemarket.

Aseparatelymanagedaccountmaynotbeappropriateforallinvestors.SeparateaccountsmanagedaccordingtotheparticularStrategymayincludesecuritiesthatmaynotnecessarilytracktheperformanceofaparticularindex.Pleaseconsidertheinvestmentobjectives,risksand

feesoftheStrategycarefullybeforeinvesting.Aminimumassetlevelisrequired.

Forimportantinformationabouttheinvestmentmanagers,pleaserefertoFormADVPart2.

Theviewsandopinionsand/oranalysisexpressedarethoseoftheauthorortheinvestmentteamasofthedateofpreparationofthismaterialandaresubjecttochangeatanytimewithoutnoticeduetomarketoreconomicconditionsandmaynotnecessarilycometopass.Furthermore,theviewswillnotbeupdatedorotherwiserevisedtoreflectinformationthatsubsequentlybecomesavailableorcircumstancesexisting,orchangesoccurring,afterthedateofpublication.TheviewsexpresseddonotreflecttheopinionsofallinvestmentpersonnelatMorganStanleyInvestmentManagement(MSIM)anditssubsidiariesandaffiliates(collectively“theFirm”),andmaynotbereflectedinallthestrategiesandproductsthattheFirmoffers.

Forecastsand/orestimatesprovidedhereinaresubjecttochangeandmaynotactuallycometopass.Informationregardingexpectedmarketreturnsandmarketoutlooksisbasedontheresearch,analysisandopinionsoftheauthorsortheinvestmentteam.Theseconclusionsarespeculativeinnature,maynotcometopassandarenotintendedtopredictthefutureperformanceofanyspecificstrategyorproducttheFirmoffers.Futureresultsmaydiffersignificantlydependingonfactorssuchaschangesinsecuritiesorfinancialmarketsorgeneraleconomicconditions.

Thismaterialhasbeenpreparedonthebasisofpubliclyavailableinformation,internallydevelopeddataandotherthird-partysourcesbelievedtobereliable.However,noassurancesareprovidedregardingthereliabilityofsuchinformationandtheFirmhasnotsoughttoindependentlyverifyinformationtakenfrompublicandthird-partysources.

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Theindexesareunmanagedanddonotincludeanyexpenses,feesorsalescharges.Itisnotpossibletoinvestdirectlyinanindex.Anyindexreferredtohereinistheintellectualproperty(includingregisteredtrademarks)oftheapplicablelicensor.Anyproductbasedonanindexisinnowaysponsored,endorsed,soldorpromotedbytheapplicablelicensoranditshallnothaveanyliabilitywithrespectthereto.

ThismaterialisnotaproductofMorganStanley’sResearchDepartmentandshouldnotberegardedasaresearchmaterialorarecommendation.TheFirmhasnotauthorizedfinancialintermediariestouseandtodistributethismaterial,unlesssuchuseanddistributionismadeinaccordancewithapplicablelawandregulation.Additionally,financialintermediariesarerequiredtosatisfythemselvesthattheinformationinthismaterialisappropriateforanypersontowhomtheyprovidethismaterialinviewofthatperson’scircumstancesandpurpose.TheFirmshallnotbeliablefor,andacceptsnoliabilityfor,theuseormisuseofthismaterialbyanysuchfinancialintermediary.

Thismaterialmaybetranslatedintootherlanguages.WheresuchatranslationismadethisEnglishversionremainsdefinitive.IfthereareanydiscrepanciesbetweentheEnglishversionandanyversionofthismaterialin

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anotherlanguage,theEnglishversionshallprevail.

Thewholeoranypartofthismaterialmaynotbedirectlyorindirectlyreproduced,copied,modified,usedtocreateaderivativework,performed,displayed,published,posted,licensed,framed,distributedortransmittedoranyofitscontentsdisclosedtothirdpartieswithouttheFirm’sexpresswrittenconsent.Thismaterialmaynotbelinkedtounlesssuchhyperlinkisforpersonalandnon-commercialuse.Allinformationcontainedhereinisproprietaryandisprotectedundercopyrightandotherapplicablelaw.

DISTRIBUTION

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MSIM,theassetmanagementdivisionofMorganStanley(NYSE:MS),anditsaffiliateshavearrangementsinplacetomarketeachother’sproductsandservices.EachMSIMaffiliateisregulatedasappropriateinthejurisdictionitoperates.MSIM’saffiliatesare:CalvertResearchandManagement,EatonVanceManagement,ParametricPortfolioAssociatesLLC,ParametricSAS,andAtlantaCapitalManagementLLC.

EMEA:

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IntheEU,MSIMmaterialsareissuedbyMSIMFundManagement(Ireland)Limited(“FMIL”).FMILisregulatedbytheCentralBankofIrelandandisincorporatedinIrelandasaprivatecompanylimitedbyshareswithcompanyregistrationnumber616661andhasitsregisteredaddressat24-26CityQuay,Dublin2,DO2NY19,Ireland.

OutsidetheEU,MSIMmaterialsareissuedbyMorganStanleyInvestmentManagementLimited(MSIMLtd)isauthorisedandregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority.RegisteredinEngland.RegisteredNo.1981121.RegisteredOffice:25CabotSquare,CanaryWharf,LondonE144QA.

InSwitzerland,MSIMmaterialsareissuedbyMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc,London(ZurichBranch)AuthorisedandregulatedbytheEidgenössischeFinanzmarktaufsicht("FINMA").RegisteredOffice:Beethovenstrasse33,8002Zurich,Switzerland.

Italy:MSIMFMIL(MilanBranch),(SedeSecondariadiMilano)PalazzoSerbelloniCorsoVenezia,1620121Milano,Italy.TheNetherlands:MSIMFMIL(AmsterdamBranch),RembrandtTower,11thFloorAmstelplein11096HA,Netherlands.France:MSIMFMIL(ParisBranch),61ruedeMonceau75008Paris,France.Spain:MSIMFMIL(MadridBranch),CalleSerrano55,28006,Madrid,Spain.Germany:MSIMFMILFrankfurtBranch,GroßeGallusstraße18,60312FrankfurtamMain,Germany(Gattung:Zweigniederlassung(FDI)gem.§53bKWG).Denmark:MSIMFMIL(CopenhagenBranch),GorrissenFederspiel,AxelTowers,Axeltorv2,1609CopenhagenV,Denmark.

MIDDLEEAST

DubaiInternationalFinancialCentre:Thisinformationdoesnotconstituteorformpartofanyoffertoissueorsell,oranysolicitationofanyoffertosubscribefororpurchase,anysecuritiesorinvestmentproductsintheUAE(includingtheDubaiInternationalFinancialCentreandtheAbuDhabiGlobalMarket)andaccordinglyshouldnotbeconstruedassuch.Furthermore,thisinformationisbeingmadeavailableonthebasisthattherecipientacknowledgesandunderstandsthattheentitiesandsecuritiestowhichitmayrelatehavenotbeenapproved,licensedbyorregisteredwiththeUAECentralBank,theDubaiFinancialServicesAuthority,theUAESecuritiesandCommoditiesAuthority,theFinancialServicesRegulatoryAuthorityoranyotherrelevantlicensingauthorityorgovernmentagencyintheUAE.ThecontentofthisreporthasnotbeenapprovedbyorfiledwiththeUAECentralBank,theDubaiFinancialServicesAuthority,theUAESecuritiesandCommoditiesAuthorityortheFinancialServicesRegulatoryAuthority.

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SaudiArabia

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licensenumber06044-37.

U.S.

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LATINAMERICA(BRAZIL,CHILECOLOMBIA,MEXICO,PERU,ANDURUGUAY)

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Australia:Thismaterialisprovi