时间和货币-加理森.ppt

1、One student at LSE in the 1930s recalls the three-dimensional diagrams with which Hayek presented his ideas and which made them seem like something in the field of engineering.,F. A. HAYEK,Another LSE student noted that Hayek wore a thick tweed suit with a waistcoat and high-cut jacket. She nickname

2、d him Mr. Fluctooations as he so often used that word and pronounced it in that way.“ -from Alan Ebensteins Friedrich A. Hayek: A Biography,Sustainable and Unsustainable Growth,An Application of Capital-Based Macroeconomics,Based on the Theory of the Business Cycle set out by Ludwig von Mises and F.

3、 A. Hayek,Table of Contents,Time and Money,Part I: The Elements of Capital-Based Macroeconomics Part II: Integrating the Elements Part III: Saving as a Basis for Sustainable Growth Part IV: Legislating Low Interest Rates Part V: Manipulating Interest Rates with Money Part VI. Letting the Economy Gro

4、w,Go To Go To Go To Go To Go To Go To,Go To the original version of this show, which was created in 1999.,The Elements of Capital-Based Macroeconomics,PART I,Go To: Table of Contents,The Market for Loanable Funds,“Loanable funds” is the generic term that refers both to lending (which constitutes the

5、 supply side of the market) and to borrowing (which constitutes the demand side). Each side of the market for loanable funds is governed by the rate of interest. Saving, broadly conceived, underlies the supply of loanable funds.,The Market for Loanable Funds,Borrowing by the business community const

6、itutes the demand.,“Loanable funds” is the generic term that refers both to lending (which constitutes the supply side of the market) and to borrowing (which constitutes the demand side). Each side of the market for loanable funds is governed by the rate of interest. Saving, broadly conceived, under

7、lies the supply of loanable funds.,The Market for Loanable Funds,Borrowing by the business community constitutes the demand.,As recognized by both Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk and John Maynard Keynes, this market is better thought of as the market for investable resources. It keeps the macroeconomically re

8、levant magnitudes of saving (S) and investment (I) in balance.,The quantity axis measures saving (and investment) as the amount of output produced in a given period and made available for (and actually used for) the expansion of the economys productive capacity.,“Loanable funds” is the generic term

9、that refers both to lending (which constitutes the supply side of the market) and to borrowing (which constitutes the demand side). Each side of the market for loanable funds is governed by the rate of interest. Saving, broadly conceived, underlies the supply of loanable funds.,The supply price of i

10、nvestable resources is measured by (and sometimes proxied by) the rate of interest. Though saving can actually take the form of lending through banking institutions, it can also take the form of retained earnings or the buying of bonds or equity shares. The demand price is similarly interpreted to i

11、nclude the various ways that the business community can take command of unconsumed outputwhich constitutes the investable resources. Consumer borrowing is netted out on the supply side. That is, the focus is on the funds lent collectively by income-earners/savers to the business community.,The Marke

12、t for Loanable Funds,In this graphical exposition, the supply and demand for investable funds results in a market-clearing interest rate of 5% with saving and investment amounting to $800 billion.,The Market for Loanable Funds,The supply price of investable resources is measured by (and sometimes pr

13、oxied by) the rate of interest. Though saving can actually take the form of lending through banking institutions, it can also take the form of retained earnings or the buying of bonds or equity shares. The demand price is similarly interpreted to include the various ways that the business community

14、can take command of unconsumed outputwhich constitutes the investable resources. Consumer borrowing is netted out on the supply side. That is, the focus is on the funds lent collectively by income-earners/savers to the business community.,In this graphical exposition, the supply and demand for inves

15、table funds results in a market-clearing interest rate of 5% with saving and investment amounting to $800 billion.,Capital-based macro features consumption and investment as alternative ways to use resources. The alternative uses are depicted as a Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF).,Production

16、Possibilities Frontier,The PPF shows the maximum sustainable level of output as a locus of points representing all possible combinations of consumption and investment for a fully employed economy.,Capital-based macro features consumption and investment as alternative ways to use resources. The alter

17、native uses are depicted as a Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF).,Production Possibilities Frontier,Consider a particular point on the frontier.,This point represents an economy that is fully employed (with the unemployment rate in the 5%-6% range). Hence, output is being produced at a sustaina

18、ble rate.,Production Possibilities Frontier,Now consider a disequilibrium point inside the PPF.,This point represents an economy in recession, producing fewer consumption goods and/or fewer investment goods than it could.,The distance below the frontier reflects the idleness of labor and other resou

19、rces. The unemployment rate is higher than 6%, suggesting significant cyclical unemployment.,Consider a particular point on the frontier.,This point represents an economy that is fully employed (with the unemployment rate in the 5%-6% range). Hence, output is being produced at a sustainable rate.,Pr

20、oduction Possibilities Frontier,This point represents an overheated economy. The unemployment rate is below 5%. The level of output is unsustainable. (Points very far beyond the PPF are, of course, literally impossible.,Now consider a disequilibrium point beyond the PPF.,The second P in PPF suggests

21、 that it is actually possible for the economy to move along the frontiera possibility denied by Keynes with his paradox of thrift. Increased saving moves the economy along the PPF in the direction of more investment; decreased saving moves the economy along the PPF in the direction of consumption.,A

22、s long as gross investment is greater than depreciation, the economy will grow, as will be represented by an outward shift in the PPF itself.,Investment in this framework is measured in gross terms. Suppose an investment of $600 billion is needed just to offset depreciation.,DEPRECIATION = $600,Beyo

23、nd the two-way division of resource usage captured by the PPF, capital-based macro tracks the intertemporal allocation of investable resources. Production time is measured along the horizontal axis.,The vertical axis tracks the value dimensionwith value at the end of the production process represent

24、ing consumable output.,CONSUMABLE OUTPUT,P R O D U C T I O N T I M E,Hayek conceived of a number of distinct stages of production, the output of each feeding into the next as input.,Each stage, then, has its own time dimension and value dimension. A stages value dimension reflects the discounted val

25、ue of the future consumable output.,At a given point in time, an ongoing production process is characterized by activities in all the separate stages.,CONSUMABLE OUTPUT,STAGES OF PRODUCTION,Identifying the stages as “mining” through “retailing” is only suggestive. The actual intertemporal structure

26、of capital, of course, entails a complexity of interconnected production activities.,MINING,REFINING,MANUFACTURING,DISTRIBUTIING,RETAILING,Dividing the economys Production process into five stages is a matter of pedagogical convenience.,CONSUMABLE OUTPUT,S T A G E S O F P R O D U C T I O N,For analy

27、tical purposes, the economys production process is conceived as a continuum of stages and is represented as goods in the making that gain value as they near completion.,The resulting figure is known as the Hayekian triangle. Strictly speaking, the triangle constrains the production process to a part

28、icular type: continuous-input/point-output. The “value added” at each stage consists of two components: (1) the adding of further inputs and (2) the movement in time towards the ultimate yield of consumable output.,While at each point in time there are goods in the making at each stage, the economys

29、 ultimate output can be identified with a temporal sequence of activities. Watch the goods in progress move through the stages.,The Hayekian Triangle, then, has two mutually reinforcing interpretations. First, it depicts the production process that plays itself out over time. Second, it depicts the

30、full complement of stages that exist at a given point in time. This second interpretation suggests that resources can be reallocated in either direction from one stage to another. Reallocation among the stages will affect the temporal pattern of consumable output,C,P R O D U C T I O N T I M E,Integr

31、ating the Elements,PART II,Go To: Table of Contents,The market for loanable-fundsa.k.a. investable resourcesshows that the market-clearing rate of interest is 5%, at which saving and investment are in equilibrium at $800 billion.,The market for loanable-fundsa.k.a. investable resourcesshows that the

32、 market-clearing rate of interest is 5%, at which saving and investment are in equilibrium at $800 billion.,The PPF shows that with $800 billion committed to investment activities, $2200 billion are available for current consumption.,The market for loanable-fundsa.k.a. investable resourcesshows that

33、 the market-clearing rate of interest is 5%, at which saving and investment are in equilibrium at $800 billion.,The Hayekian triangle depicts current consumption as the output of the economys multi-stage production process. The rate of interest governs the allocation of resources among the stages.,A

34、n initial full-employment equilibrium is defined by: the Loanable-Funds Market,the PPF,The slope of the hypotenuse of the Hayekian triangle reflects a rate of interest consistent with the rate that prevails in the loanable- funds market.,the Hayekian Triangle,.,plus the representative stage-specific

35、 labor markets.,If gross investment needed to offset capital depreciation is $600 billion, the economy is experiencing net investment of $200 billion.,$600,This additional capital is distributed among the stages of production in accordance with an unchanged rate of interest.,$600,The increase in pro

36、ductive capacity and hence in output is depicted by a shifting outward of the PPF and by a corresponding shifting of the supply and demand for loanable funds.,Watch the economy grow!,Watch the economy grow!,Watch the economy grow!,Watch the economy grow!,With gross investment greater than capital de

37、preciation, the economy experiences secular growth. This rate of growth is sustainable.,To the extent that increased incomes and wealth reduce the premium on current consumption and increase saving propensities, the economy will grow faster.,We turn next to the effect of increased saving, whatever t

38、he underlying cause of the increase.,PART III,Saving as a Basis for Sustainable Economic Growth,Go To: Table of Contents,The supply of loanable funds registers peoples current saving preferences. Changes in saving behavior for the economy as a whole can stem from a change in demographics or from a c

39、hange in attitudes toward saving. People may become more conscious of the need to save for their childrens education or for their retirement years. Suppose that, for whatever reason, people decide to save more.,The supply of loanable funds registers peoples current saving preferences. Changes in sav

40、ing behavior for the economy as a whole can stem from a change in demographics or from a change in attitudes toward saving. People may become more conscious of the need to save for their childrens education or for their retirement years. Suppose that, for whatever reason, people decide to save more.

41、,The supply of loanable funds shifts to the right, registering the increased inclination to save, or equivalently, the decrease in time preferences. The interest rate falls from 5% to 2.3%, encouraging the business community to increase investment from $800 billion to $1000 billion.,The supply of lo

42、anable funds registers peoples current saving preferences. Changes in saving behavior for the economy as a whole can stem from a change in demographics or from a change in attitudes toward saving. People may become more conscious of the need to save for their childrens education or for their retirem

43、ent years. Suppose that, for whatever reason, people decide to save more.,The loanable funds market strikes a new equilibrium. Both saving and investment increase to $1,000 billion.,The PPF shows how the increased saving affects the mix of consumption and investment. For a given income, saving more

44、means consuming less.,The economy moves along the frontier, as current consumption is reduced from $2,200 billion to $1,780 billion. Resources are shifted away from production activities aimed at the present and near-future and toward production activities aimed at the more remote future.,The PPF sh

45、ows how the increased saving affects the mix of consumption and investment. For a given income, saving more means consuming less.,A reshaping of the Hayekian triangle mirrors the move-ment along the PPF in the direction of investment and depicts the change in the time dimension in the production pro

46、cess.,With reduced consumption demand, the derived demand for labor and other factors of production in the late stages is reduced as well.,In the early stages, demand for labor and other factors of production is increased, as the interest-rate effect more-than-offsets the derived-demand effect .,A w

47、age-rate differential during the capital restructuring encourages workers to move from late stages to early stages.,A wage-rate differential during the capital restructuring encourages workers to move from late stages to early stages.,Watch the economy respond to an increase in saving.,Watch the eco

48、nomy respond to an increase in saving.,A saving-induced reallocation of resources among the stages of production skews the pattern of consumable output toward the future.,People dont just save; they save-up-for-something. Consumption is down only temporarilyduring the transition to new growth path.,

49、Early-stage investments during this transition allow the increased future demands for consumption goods to be accommodated. The economy grows more rapidly than before.,Now watch the economy grow!,Now watch the economy grow!,Now watch the economy grow!,Now watch the economy grow!,An initial increase

50、in saving, attributable to a change in intertemporal consumption preferences, is depicted by a movement along the PPF.,The increase investment made possible by this initial saving allows PPF to shift outward in larger increments than before the change in intertemporal preferences.,Saving & Growth,PA

51、RT IV,Legislating Low Interest Rates,Go To: Table of Contents,Accelerated growth driven by an increase in saving entails a market process in which the interest rate falls and investment increases. Policymakers may misunderstand the nature of the process and believe that low interest rates (rather th

52、an increased saving) is the cause of the increased growth rate.,With this understanding in mind, Congress might enact an interest-rate ceiling, prohibiting a yield of more than, say, 2.3% on financial assets.,The result would be a credit shortage, which would be apparent as soon as the legislation w

53、ent into effect.,Accelerated growth driven by an increase in saving entails a market process in which the interest rate falls and investment increases. Policymakers may misunderstand the nature of the process and believe that low interest rates (rather than increased saving) is the cause of the incr

54、eased growth rate.,With this understanding in mind, Congress might enact an interest-rate ceiling, prohibiting a yield of more than, say, 2.3% on financial assets.,Accelerated growth driven by an increase in saving entails a market process in which the interest rate falls and investment increases. P

55、olicymakers may misunderstand the nature of the process and believe that low interest rates (rather than increased saving) is the cause of the increased growth rate.,With this understanding in mind, Congress might enact an interest-rate ceiling, prohibiting a yield of more than, say, 2.3% on financi

56、al assets.,The result would be a credit shortage, which would be apparent as soon as the legislation went into effect.,Accelerated growth driven by an increase in saving entails a market process in which the interest rate falls and investment increases. Policymakers may misunderstand the nature of t

57、he process and believe that low interest rates (rather than increased saving) is the cause of the increased growth rate.,With this understanding in mind, Congress might enact an interest-rate ceiling, prohibiting a yield of more than, say, 2.3% on financial assets.,The result would be a credit short

58、age, which would be apparent as soon as the legislation went into effect.,Accelerated growth driven by an increase in saving entails a market process in which the interest rate falls and investment increases. Policymakers may misunderstand the nature of the process and believe that low interest rate

59、s (rather than increased saving) is the cause of the increased growth rate.,With the yield on financial assets held to 2.3%, the yield on real assets would rise to 7.7%, as indicated by the demand price.,With this understanding in mind, Congress might enact an interest-rate ceiling, prohibiting a yield of more than, say, 2.3% on financial assets.,Accelerated growth driven by an increase in saving entails a market process in which the interest rate falls and investment increases. Po