如何分析并作出正确的决策HowToAutomateSm.ppt

1、How To Automate Smart Decision Making with BI & Analytics,Mark Smith CEO & EVP Research,Agenda,What is decision management technology What kinds of decisions should not be automated? What are rule-based systems and why are they advantageous? Whats are main the differences between BI, Analytics and D

2、ecision Management? How are the above practices/technologies measured?,Excessive Focus on Understanding:Rear View, Historical Perspective,Performance Management Provides Emphasis on Improvement and Automation of Decisions,A methodology that examines the people, process, information and technology an

3、d a process that aligns business and technology to improve results.,Performance Management Process,Understand Comprehend the status of people, organization and business processes.,Optimize Plan for future actions and decisions that can achieve the objectives and goals.,Align Communicate and provide

4、guidance, objectives, goals and incentives.,Ventana Research PerformanceCycle,Performance Management,Decision Management,Improve business decisions through design, deployment and refinement of operational decision making procedures Decision Management helps enterprise make better, more consistent bu

5、siness decisions Maximize revenue, minimize costs, streamline business processes Via Web, OLTP, call center, and batch applications Agile evolution of decision making to meet new business challenges Give data analysts, business policy makers, corporate portfolio managers, and it implementers tools t

6、o understand and use each others information,Use analysis of the past to modify decision strategies in the present to correctly manage and guide future activities,What is It?,Decision Management Examples,Customer management decisions how to handle particular requests for services, how to treat custo

7、mers in collections, whether to increase exposure to current customers through additional credit offers, etc. Supplier selection decisions which supplier to use for a given order of parts based on cost, past delivery history, customer preferences, etc. Advertiser selection decisions which advertiser

8、 should be selected for a given advertisement opportunity given existing contracts, type of opportunity, recently shown ads, etc. Audit selection decisions which taxpayers should be selected for auditing given experience with previous audits, past filings, current policies, etc.,Examining Decision C

9、ycles for Automation,1- RecognizeThreat/Opp.,3- Set Goals/Objectives,2- UnderstandFactors,4- DeviseSolutions,5- CompareSolutions,6- Decideon Action Plan,7- Execute Action Plan,8- ReviewAction results,InformationAcquisition,Goal Setting,Decision Making,ActionCoordination,Areas of facilitation of the

10、decision making process,AutomatedDecisionSystems,Traditional BI use,Decision Management and Automation,Automated does not mean lights out Decision review sometime or always required Decision exception management Rules engine maintenance and updates,Input,Automated Decisions,Models/Rules,Reviews,Exce

11、ptions,Application or User requesting a decision,Decision Management Framework,Decision Management Application or Interface,Predictive Models,DevelopmentEnvironment,Business Rule Engine,DataSources,Third Party Applications or Interfaces,Repository,Business Rules Decision Management,Rules are conditi

12、onal statements of how to respond to data or events with a business transaction If Ferrari is $30, then buy quickly Business rules take many forms Policies, practices, and procedures you use to make operational decisions Strategies based on historical data and business acumen Decision Trees Decision

13、 Tables Rules carry out actions suggested by modeling and optimization strategies,Business rules are found in your company policy manuals, in lines of code in legacy systems, interdepartmental memos, and in the minds of your experienced employees,Business Rules Decision Management,Rules Engines Evol

14、ution of Expert systems Two step process Create rules using experts Deploy the rule set Whats new Graphical development and administration Mature rule development environments Robust platforms Integration with complimentary technologies Accessible to business managers/non-technologists Industry expe

15、rience with success and failure,Predictive Modeling Decision Management,Predictive Modeling Applied statistics and other data mining approaches Regression/Neural Networks Classification, Segmentation 2 step process Create the model, use the model Whats new Improved, graphical user interfaces Automat

16、ion of model creation Integration with rules engines Industry experience with success and failure,Decision Management - Maturity Curve,Business RulesAutomation Leveraged ExpertiseAutomated DecisionsNo Optimization,Decision Refinement Leveraged ExpertiseAutomated DecisionsManual Tuning,Adaptive Contr

17、ol Automated accessAutomated processing Decision Testing Manual Tuning,Predictive Modeling Automated accessAutomated processing Decision Testing Predictive Models Manual analysis Manual decisions,Decision Optimization Automated accessAutomated processing Routed DecisionsPredictive Models Manual anal

18、ysis Manual decisions,Decision Management Application Needs,E-Commerce now a driving factor in real-time transactions $80B annual run rate (Q4CY2004) (US Census Bureau) +29% from Q3CY2004 2% of total US sales Retailing Merchant Survey Among Top 5 key selling tools Cross-sell/Up-sell, Promotions, Sal

19、es/Specials Commerce Fraud 2004 On-line commerce fraud losses $2.6B (CyberSource survey) 2004 On-line losses growth 25%-30% growth expected Manual review increased Speed of e-commerce Interactive transaction rates now 10-20 seconds for leading sites (Keynote) Skills and turnover of workforce 10%-30%

20、 turnover (Call Center Mgmt Review),Best Practices in Identification of Decision Management,High decision volume Manual oversight is not technically or economically feasible. Potential for respective cost savings or incremental revenue Inconsistent workforce decision skills High employee turnover Lo

21、w position compensation Need for self-service Business demand a presence on the web Services require instant decision making on pricing, packaging, delivery and other facets. Web-site visitors expect instant response. Past indicates the future Decision input/outcome relationship can be measured and

22、modeled Decisions consistent over time Internet is a key business enabler Customers, and employees expect fast, high-value interactions Comparable performance, personalization and accommodation are a critical success factor for your business.,Converging Technologies from Business Intelligence to Dec

23、ision Management,Tools & Applications,Monitoring & Alerting,Platform and Server Technology,Dashboard & Scorecard,Information Management & Master Data Mgt,Analytics & Location,Reporting & Visualization,Integration Management (Application, Data & Info.),1995-2004,Query & Analysis Platforms Reporting,M

24、odeling & Analytics Rules & Workflow Master Data Management,2006-,Rules & Workflow,Data Mining & Modeling,BusinessUnderstanding,Decision Management Enables Performance Management,PerformanceManagement,ShrinkingResponse Time,Inconsistent Decision Making,LimitedDecisionCompetence,DecisionRisk,Decision

25、 Mgt Benefits,Encoded Decision Process,ImprovedROI,FacilitatedDecisions,Automated Decisions,Faster response to customers and partners Greater consistency of decision making Lower cost of decision making Overall decision outcome improvement Knowledge workers available for higher value tasks IT costs lowered as application design are simplified,Summary,Decision Management is part of Performance Management and Expands your Business Intelligence and Analytics Efforts,Value,Ventana Research Analyst Summit - Connections 2006 San Francisco in June,June 11-14 in San Francisco, C