国际金融第八章课件.ppt

1、1,Part II Macro Policies for Open Economies,Focus on macroeconomic performance. 8 How does the open macroeconomy work? 9 Internal and external balance with fixed exchange rates 10 Floating exchange rates and internal balance,2,macroeconomic performance （宏观经济运行） the behavior (变化) of a countrys output

2、, jobs, and prices in the face of changing world conditions.,CHAPTER 8,How Does the Open Macroeconomy Work? 开放的宏观经济是如何运行的？,4,Framework of this chapter,The performance of a national economy 一国经济的状况 Equilibrium GDP and spending multipliers 均衡GDP和支出乘数 Three markets 三个市场（产品、货币和外汇市场）,5,The performance of

3、 a national economy,How well is a countrys economy performing? We judge the performance of a national economy against two objectives. Internal balance and external balance.,6,Internal Balance Full employment, or an acceptably low unemployment rate Price stability, or an acceptably low inflation rate

4、,7,External balance Sustainable (能保持一定水平的) balance of payments with the rest of the world Useful indicator: Official settlements balance approximately equal to zero (so that the country is not losing official international reserves or acquiring unwanted official international reserves),8,Our discuss

5、ion here focus on the countrys current account. The goal here need not be a zero balance.,9,A framework for macroeconomic analysis p164,Analysis on the behavior of the economy in the short run is relatively Keynesian（凯恩斯主义者） in that the price level is not immediately responsive to aggregate demand (

6、AD) and supply. Analysis on the behavior of the economy in the longer run is more classical(古典学派的) in that the price level does respond to demand and supply.,10,Determinants of real GDP (representing both domestic product and national income),11,Domestic production depends on aggregate demand,A majo

7、r performance goal of an economy is to achieve production of goods and services that is close to the economys potential. The value of production of goods and services is the economys real GDP(Y); it is nearly the same thing as real national income.,12,In the short run (and within the economys supply

8、 capabilities), domestic production is determined by aggregate demand: Y = AD = C + Id + G + (X - M) 国内产出（国民收入）总需求 消费国内投资政府支出净出口 (X - M): Exports are the foreign demand for our goods; imports are already included in the other kinds of spending.,13,Y = AD = C + Id + G + (X - M),E,National spending on

9、 goods and services,14,Contd,National spending on goods and services: E=C+ Id + G C=C(Y) (+) Id= Id(i) (- ) G is treated as a political decision.,15,Trade depends on income p166,M=M(Y), imports M are a positive function of Y. Marginal propensity to import (m): the amount by which our imports increas

10、e when our income goes up by one dollar. 边际进口倾向：每增加一元的收入所增加的进口量。 X depends on income of foreign countries.,16,Equilibrium GDP and spending multipliers,Equilibrium GDP The condition for equilibrium: real GDP=AD, AD = E + X -M, holding the interest rate constant, AD(Y) = E(Y) + X -M(Y), Therefore, the

11、 equilibrium condition is Y= AD(Y) = E(Y) + X -M(Y),17,The spending multiplier in a small, open economy,The spending multiplier shows how equilibrium GDP responds to exogenous（外来的） changes in any component of aggregate demand. 支出乘数体现了均衡GDP是如何随总需求各组成部分的变化而变化的。 乘数是指由总支出变动引起的国民收入增加的倍数。,18,Suppose that

12、the government raises its purchases of domestically produced goods and services by 10 units,10 units purchases,10 extra income for whoever produces,Spending part of the extra income to consume,Extra part income for whoever produces,19,Contd,With each extra dollar of income, people will Save 20 cents

13、 marginal propensity to save (s) ? Spend 30 cents on imports marginal propensity to import (m)? Spend 50 cents domestically marginal propensity to consume domestic product (1-s-m)?,20,Both 20% saved and 30% imports in the extra income represent “leakages” from the domestic expenditure stream. In the

14、 second round of income and expenditures ,only 50% (1-20%-30%)will be passed on and divided up into further domestic spending.,21,10 units purchases,10 extra income for whoever produces,Spending 5 units of the extra income to consume,5 units income for whoever produces goods and service,2.5 units sp

15、ending on domestic consumption,22,Contd,The spending multiplier in a small open economy is Y/ G = 1/(s + m) 国民收入的增量 / 政府支出的增量 = 1/(边际储蓄倾向 + 边际进口倾向) Note: The multiplier is smaller in a small open economy than it in a comparable closed economy (in which m is zero) Exercise: Q4 p185 a, b,23,a.The spen

16、ding multiplier in this small open economy is about 1.82 (= 1/(0.15 + 0.4). If real spending initially declines by $2 billion, then domestic product and income will decline by about $3.64 billion (= 1.82 $2 billion) b.If domestic product and income decline by $3.64 billion, then the countrys imports

17、 will decline by about $1.46 billion (= $3.64 billion 0.4).,24,Foreign Spillovers（需求溢出） and Foreign-Income Repercussions国外需求溢出和外国收入的影响,Foreign Spillovers Spillover:需求溢出 -因某种商品不足而引起对其他有关商品的需求 Spillover effect: 溢出效应，是指事物一个方面的发展带动了该事物其它方面的发展。如，一国总需求与国民收入增加对别国的影响。,25,If the country is not smallthe follo

18、w-on effects of these imports The effects can be important in two ways: -changes in production and income of a large country have spillover effects on production and income in foreign countries. -the change in foreign incomes alter foreign purchases of the first countrys exports,26,e.g. the U.S. acc

19、ounts for about 21 percent of world production, and it accounts for 20 percent of world imports. The euro area has 16 percent of world production and 17 percent of world imports.,Figure 8.2,27,Foreign-Income Repercussions p171,For a large country whose trade noticeably affects domestic production in

20、 other countries, foreign income repercussions increase the true spending multiplier. A change in this large countrys income changes its imports, which changes foreign exports by enough to alter foreign production and income.,28,Figure 8.3Foreign Trade and Income Repercussions,29,Contd,This repercus

21、sions was evident in business cycles. e.g. the Great Depression of the 1930s The same interdependence of incomes persists today. When world economy is sluggish, increasing growth in big countries may be sufficient to raise world growth overall.,30,A more complete framework for analyzing a countrys m

22、acroeconomy in the short run requires that we are able to picture not only domestic product, income, and aggregate demand but also supply and demand of money and countrys overall balance of payment.,31,A more complete framework: Three markets,The domestic product market supply and demand for domesti

23、c goods and services. The money market supply and demand for money. The foreign exchange market supply and demand for foreign currency.,32,Figure 8.4Overview of Macromodel (Mundell-Fleming Model）,The first two markets determine Y and i; Y and i impact the third market; exogenous forces affect these

24、three markets.,决定,影响,33,外生变量：由模型以外的因素决定的已知变量，它是模型据以建立的外部条件。 内生变量：该模型所要决定的变量。它可在模型体系内得到说明。,34,The domestic product market,The aggregate demand for what our country produces depends not only on income (Y) but also interest rate (i). IS curve.,35,两部门收入模型 漏出：指居民户把一部分收入转化为储蓄。 注入：企业所得到的额外的投资。,金融机构,储蓄S,投资I

25、,商品或劳务,货币（消费C）,提供生产要素,货币（工资或利息）,居民户,企业,36,两部门经济中国民收入均衡的条件 AD=C+I=AS=C+S，即I=S。,37,Contd,IS (investment-saving) curve shows all combinations of domestic product levels (Y) and interest rates (i) for which the domestic product market is in equilibrium. p173 IS曲线表示在产品市场上，投资等于储蓄（I=S）时利率和收入的各种组合的点的轨迹。 Dom

26、estic product market is in equilibrium when S(Y) = Id (i) +X-M(Y),+,+,38,Figure 8.5,IS Curve,利率 = i,国内产出Y（国民收入）,0,0.07,0.05,0.09,C,A,B,80,100,120,IS,Why does the IS curve slope downward? Equilibrium point A. If i=0.05 , lower i induce more domestic investment, resulting in a higher level of domestic

27、 product. (Y=120) point B,39,IS曲线的移动,A change in any influence on aggregate demand other than interest rates results in a shift in the IS curve. i不变，而是总需求的其他因素发生变化时，会导致IS曲线的位移。 e.g. an increase in government spending? foreign demand for the countrys exports increases?,40,The money market,Monetary po

28、licy determines money supply of a country. The demand for money (L) is related to the (nominal) GDP and interest rates.,Value of GDP = (PY),Opportunity cost to holding money (i),41,L = L (PY, i ) Equilibrium of money market is MS= L (PY, i ),42,Contd,LM curve shows all combinations of production lev

29、els and interest rates for which the money market is in equilibrium. LM曲线表示在货币市场中，货币供给等于货币需求时收入与利率的各种组合的点的轨迹。,43,Figure 8.6LM Curve,44,Why does LM curve slope upward?,Equilibrium at point A. If interest rate is higher, say, at 0.09, people would hold less money but more bonds instead. To have the mo

30、ney market equilibrium at that higher interest rate, people would have to have some other reason to hold the same amount of money supply at point A. so the level of domestic product and income should be higher, raising their transactions demand for holding money.,45,LM曲线的移动,A change in the money sup

31、ply or a change in an influence on money demand other than Y or i results in a shift in the LM curve. Y或者i不变，而是货币供给或影响货币需求的因素发生变化时，会导致LM曲线的位移。 e.g. an increase in the nominal money supply by the central bank？,46,Contd,If the IS curve is added to LM curve.,i,0,Y,LM,IS,0.05,0.07,0.09,100,80,A,F,G,120,

32、47,The foreign exchange market,Balance-of-payments approach for this market. B = CA(Y) + KA (i) How do Y and i affect the countries balance of payments? Balance on goods and services trade depends negatively on our domestic product, through the demand for imports。 International capital flows depends

33、 on interest rates.,+,(X-M),48,FE curve,The FE curve shows all combinations of Y and i that result in a zero official settlements balance. FE曲线表示总差额为零时收入与利率的各种组合的点的轨迹。,49,Figure 8.7,Interest rate = i,Domestic product =Y,0.03,0.07,0.11,J,A,H,FE,LM,IS,surplus,deficit,0,当国内产出和收入增加时，进口增加，经常账户差额恶化，但这种情况可

34、随高利率吸引外资流入为来冲销。 因此，FE曲线向上倾斜。,80,100,120,50,FE曲线的移动,A change in an influence on the current or capital accounts other than Y or i causes a shift in the FE curve. Y或者i不变，而是影响经常账户或资本账户的因素发生变化时，会导致FE曲线的位移。 e.g. an increase in foreign income increases demand for our exports FE curve shifts to right,51,Th

35、ree markets together,The official settlements balance (B) is in surplus if the IS-LM intersection is to the left of the FE curve. B is zero if the IS-LM intersection is on the FE curve. B is in deficit if the IS-LM intersection is to the right of the FE curve.,52,Contd,The way we use this framework depends on the type of exchange rate policy that the country has adopted.,53,The price level does change,The price level change over time. Most countries have some amount of ongoing inflation. Strong or weak aggregate demand can put pressure on