论文题目基于系统动力学的长江航运政策研究.doc

论文题目：基于系统动力学的长江航运政策研究导师姓名：刘 清 陈 宁答辩组成员：杨家其 张庆年 林 桦 徐良杰 王 林答辩时间：2009年5月11日 下午3点答辩地点：交通学院交通管理系会议室摘 要长江是贯穿我国东、中、西部的水路通道，蕴藏着巨大的运能资源，拥有巨大的水上运输规模。尽管长江航运促进了我国经济发展，但是长江航运市场却存在一些问题。如何正确引导长江航运高效、有序的发展，合理的利用现有资源，满足国家经济发展的需要，是长江航运政策研究的关键问题。长江流域分布着我国重要的产业带，沿江经济区域有较大的运输需求。随着经济的进一步发展和全球经济一体化进程的加快，长江上中下游形成了具有明显区域特色的产业布局，这确保了长江航运拥有了充足的货源，为长江航运的发展提供了保障。长江航运在经济布局和经济发展中的作用越来越大，在我国西部大开发、中部崛起和东部率先实现现代化战略中的作用日益凸显，以“长三角”为龙头的长江流域经济区，将进一步成为中国经济布局和经济腾飞的核心地区。我国正处于市场经济发展的初级阶段，行业管理部门的职能也发生了转变，但其在宏观管理上的变革仍落后于运输市场的发展。目前，长江航运在航道整治、船舶标准化、航运机制等方面正面临一次重大的改变。随着市场经济的发展和未来发展趋势的需要，国家出台了长江“十二五”发展总体规划目标，长江沿岸各地政府纷纷制定了一系列促进航运发展的地方政策，在此基础上长江将会建设成为一个高效、通畅的江海联运体系。在统一规划、有效协同的基础上，长江航运将会为我国的经济发展做出巨大贡献。研究相关的航运政策有助于提高资源的利用率，使长江航运与经济发展相适应。本文介绍了国内外航运政策的发展过程和现行状况，总结了长江航运政策研究的基本内涵，界定了长江航运政策研究的范围，依据长江航运系统的特点，确定了本文的研究方法；以系统动力学理论为基础，分析了长江航运系统的要素及特点，通过分析系统因果关系，构造了长江航运系统动力学模型；以武汉杨泗港为实例研究对象，模拟了航运政策对长江航运的影响，通过分析模拟结果，得出了可行的港口发展政策方案；提出了相关的长江航运政策建议，为长江航运的发展提供了一定的参考价值。关键词：航运政策，系统要素，系统动力学，反馈AbstractYangtze River is a waterway channel which passes our country through east to west, it contains huge transport capacity resources, has the huge water transport scale. Although the Yangtze River shipping promoted our country economic development, but the Yangtze River shipping market has some problems. How to guide development of the Yangtze River shipping in highly effect, order and use existing resources reasonably, satisfy the need of state economy development, is the key question to Yangtze River shipping policy research.The Yangtze valley is distributing our countrys important industry belt, the river the economic region has big transportation demand. With the further economical development and quickening global economic integration process, the Yangtze River basin formed obvious region characteristic industrial layout, this ensures the Yangtze River shipping has sufficient source of goods, provids safeguard for the Yangtze River shippings development. The Yangtze River shipping becomes bigger and bigger function in the economical layout and development, also in our countrys west big development, middle rising and easterns realizing in the modernized strategy. It will become core area where economical layout and the economy is soaring. Our country is in the initial stage of market economy development, the trade management departments function has some transformation, but it still fells behind transports market development in the macroscopic management. At present, the Yangtze River shipping is facing a significant change in route improvement, ships standardization, shipping mechanism and so on. With the in-depth development of market economy and increasing competition, the State made the 12th Five-Year Plan, development to the Yangtze River. At the same time, all local governments along the Yangtze River have formulated a series of local policies to promote the development of local shipping, on the basis of which the Yangtze River will become into a smooth and efficient transport system of river and sea. As the basis of the unified planning and effective coordination, the Yangtze River shipping will present a unified, open, competitive and orderly market environment. Researching related shipping policy will help enterprises reduce operating costs and improve operational efficiency and make full use of a variety of shipping resources to achieve maximum economic benefits.This article introduces development process and the present condition of the domestic and foreign shipping policy, summarizes basic connotation to the Yangtze River shipping policy research, limites the scope to Yangtze River shipping policy research, determines this articles research method basing on the Yangtze River shipping systems characteristic.Takeing the systems dynamics theory as the foundation, analyzes the Yangtze River shipping systems essential factor and characteristic, constructes dynamics model to the Yangtze River shipping systems through analyzing system causal relation. It simulates the shipping policys influence to the Yangtze River shipping by the study object Wuhan Yang Sigang port, obtains the feasible harbor development policy plan. It proposes