快速消费品市场分析及展望.ppt

2011 CPG/FMCG Trends,2,2011 Mintel CPG Predictions,Every year, we develop a list of predictions for the coming year Based on input from more than 40 Mintel employees, from every one of our offices (Chicago, London, Sydney, Shanghai, Tokyo) Finalized by our leading global consultants in Chicago, London, and Sydney Predictions are global in scope, and may differ somewhat from one part of the world to another,Objective: Offer our insight and ideas as to whats ahead for CPG products in the year to come,3,Todays agenda,A brief look: 2011 Consumer predictions CPG predictions: The list First, a brief look at new product activity A dozen CPG predictions, one by one Whats next,Intent: Share our expert knowledge on trends that will impact your business,Women will continue to redefine gender roles as well as lifestages,4,2011 Mintel Consumer Trends,Consumers will take a “prepare for the worst” stance towards budgeting,QR codes will provide consumers with alternative channels for information and experience,An ageing society will mean new challenges and opportunities for the workplace,Traditional universities will no longer be the only venue for education,Brands will need to decide whether to counter or cater to the issue of obesity,How does your(urban) garden grow? More city dwellers will get a green thumb,Automation will find machines replacing people in new and unexpected ways,Retailers will need to get more creative than cutting prices in order to lure consumers in store,Prepare for the Worst,Where its App,On Her Own Terms,No Degree, No Problem,The Big Issue,Retired for Hire,Who needs humans?,Retail Rebirth,Garden State,Global 2011 CPG predictions: The list,5,Wellness Quiet reduction Redefining “natural” Personal hygiene comes out of the closet,Convenience Professionalisation of the amateur Less is more redux,Indulgence Econo-chic Instant results,Environment Sustainable stays focused on the basics,Demographics Simplicity for older consumers,Marketing and media Blurring categories New retro More cradle-to-grace initiatives,Global new product introductions,Global introductions driven by Food and Beauty Total introductions annually top 250,000 New product introductions, global, by supercategory,6,Source: Mintel GNPD,7,A closer look at food and drink,Europe accounts for the greatest percentage of product introductions in all food and drink North Americas contribution to the global total continues to shrink Food & drink introductions, global, by region,Source: Mintel GNPD,12%,20%,27%,4%,37%,8,Food and drink, selected claims,Claims that focus on inherent goodness dominate new product offerings Most claim groups increase, with declines seen by Minus and Plus groups Food & drink introductions, global, by selected claim category,Source: Mintel GNPD,9,A closer look at non-food,Non-food is more of a mixed bag in terms of introductions, with more declines over time compared to food and drink Europe also commands the greatest percentage of introductions Non-food introductions, global, by region,Source: Mintel GNPD,10%,23%,24%,3%,40%,10,Non-food, selected claims,Claim activity has been quite steady in last two years Note stagnation of Natural Non-food introductions, global, by selected claim groups,Source: Mintel GNPD,11,Prediction One: Quiet reduction,What it is: Several key ingredientssodium, sugar, and high fructose corn syruphave been experiencing covert reductions in product formulations Why its important: Over time, we may see some shifts from covert to overt, depending on the ingredient, depending on the region of the world,Of US consumers believe that HFCS in beverages promotes obesity,Source: Mintel Oxygen,Brands will need to decide whether to counter or cater to the issue of obesity,Consumer Trends Tie-in,12,Prediction One: Quiet Reduction,What we see in the market: HFCS reduction most important in North America New product introductions, global, with HFCS, by region,Yoplaits SimplyGo-Gurt yogurt in a tube, USA, with “no high fructose corn syrup” on front of pack Sales of $7M in first 33 weeks, outperforming the category average; priced at parity with regular Go-Gurt,Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS,Prediction One: Quiet Reduction,Positives and negatives of sodium reduction: Reduced sodium levels essential for good health and disease prevention Consumers balk at the compromised taste Result: Companies reduce, but dont communicate Consumer attitudes to salt,Whats ahead? Sodium levels will continue to drop, but likely that few products will be labeled as “reduced sodium”,13,Source: TGI Europa/Mintel,14,Prediction Two: Redefining “Natural”,What it is: “All natural” continues to be ill-defined and under fire, leading to a “natural shakedown” Why its important: Focus likely to shift to greater accentuation of the positives, rather than the negatives “No additives” becoming the norm in many countries, with percentages much higher in some countries rather than others New product introductions with no additives/preservatives claims, global,Source: Mintel GNPD,Consumer predictions Brands will need to decide whether to counter or cater to the issue of obesity,Prediction Two: Redefining “Natural”,All natural ice cream made from just five ingredients, listed front of pack Original seven varieties have sold over $28M since launch Sales of the top 3 out-perform the benchmark for all Hagen-Dazs ice cream introductions in the same period,15,Hagen-Dazs Five, USA, launched spring 2009,Quad Weeks,Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS,Prediction Two: Redefining “Natural”,16,PepsiCos Pepsi Natural all natural cola, USA, made with sparkling water, sugar and kola nut extract,A cautionary tale: Are all categories right for natural positioning? Sales of Pepsi Natural have slid; product has been discontinued Possible reasons: “Natural” consumers may not be soda drinkers They also may not choose leading national brands Beware price premiums Pepsi Natural: 9.56 per oz. compared to Regular Pepsi at 2.38,Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS,Mintel estimate of compound annual growth rate for incontinence products in the US, 2009-2013,17,Prediction Three: Personal Hygiene Comes Out of the Closet,What it is: For personal care products, discretion is out, honesty is in Why its important: Look for more open discussion of formerly taboo subjects, leading to greater and more unique product development Transparency will be the basis for future marketing,Source: Mintel GMN,Women will continue to redefine gender roles as well as life stages,Consumer Trends Tie-in,18,What we see in the market Products not limited to ageing women, but for women of all ages,Johnson & Johnsons K-Y Yours + Mine lubricant,Schick Quattro TrimStyle razor and trimmer for women,Poise pads advertising in US, featuring Whoopi Goldberg,Prediction Three: Personal Hygiene Comes Out of the Closet,Of UK consumers say they have cut back on how often they eat out and/or how much they spend,19,Prediction Four: Professionalization of the Amateur,What it is: CPG products continue to bring into the home what used to require a specialist, across all categories Why its important: Consumers can have a greater sense of control, including over how (and if) they spend money on services outside the home Signals a greater focus for more products that help consumers cook more, and better, at home,Consumers will take a “prepare for the worst” stance toward budgeting,Consumer Trends Tie-in,20,What we see in the market: Products that help consumers create meals quickly, easily, and with better results,McCormicks Recipe Inspirations seasonings, USA,PepsiCos Gatorade G Series Pro products, USA,Heros Cocina Creativa line (creative cooking), Spain, intended to help consumers give dishes a creative touch,Prediction Four: Professionalization of the Amateur,21,What we see in the market: Nonfood products that bring expert experience and knowledge to a mainstream consumer,Unilevers Seda shampoo and conditioner, Brazil, co-designed by seven hair experts,Colgate-Palmolives Ajax Professional Grease & Stain cleaner, France,Prediction Four: Professionalization of the Amateur,Of UK consumers feel retailers and manufacturers should be charged for excessive packaging,22,Prediction Five: Less is More Redux,What it is: Less is more thinking linked increasingly to convenience and economical solutions, with the environment taking a secondary role Why its important: This trend can possibly signal a revival of previously “tired” categories, such as dehydrated soup While stickpack drink mixes are well developed, the concept can expand into additional categories,23,What we see in the market: Concentrates, simplified forms appearing in many categories,Bottle Greens Squeezy Squash, UK, triple strength beverage concentrates,Starbucks Via instant coffee, USA, in an iced variety,Unilevers Knorr Gourmet Moments upscale dehydrated soup, France,Prediction Five: Less is More Redux,Pot Noodle convenient mug pack targeted at office workers Nearly 300,000 sales since launch, 6,600 average weekly sales on a RRP of 49p,24,Unilever Pot Noodle In a Mug, UK,Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS,Prediction Five: Less is More Redux,25,Prediction Six: Econo-chic,What it is: Luxury is making a comeback, but in a more limited way Why its important: Occasional splurges by consumers provide opportunity for CPG products positioned as “small treats”,Of UK consumers buy value AND premium private label products,Consumers will take a “prepare for the worst” stance toward budgeting,Consumer Trends Tie-in,26,What we see in the market: Simple products, with simple “elevated” benefits,Mars Twix candy bar, France, in a limited edition metal tin 9-pack,Method Products Ultra Concentrated Dish Soap, USA, in a Pink Grapefruit scent,Prediction Six: Econo-chic,27,Prediction Seven: Instant Results,What it is: Products that provide a benefit, instantly Why its important: Results-driven products answer the need by consumers for products that perform While currently seen mainly in personal care products, it also can expand to food and drink,28,What we see in the market: Skincare mainly, at a variety of price points,Cliniques Anti-Blemish Solutions, Liquid Makeup, global,LOreals Collagen Micro-Pulse Eye Correction System,Prediction Seven: Instant Results,29,Prediction Eight: Sustainability Stays Focused on the Basics,What it is: Reduce, reuse, recycle continues as the environmental mantra, as products continue to build on current initiatives Why its important: Focus on the basics while consumers balance environmental concerns with budgetary constraints Remember the hidden parenthetical statement: consumers will engage in green livingif it does not cost any more,29,Of UK consumers say they would buy more environmentally friendly products if it saved them money,How does your (urban) garden grow? City dwellers get a green thumb,Consumer Trends Tie-in,30,What we see in the market: Concepts borrowed from other countries or categories Simple ideas, easy for consumers to adopt,PepsiCos Quaker Chewy Granola Bars, USA, in a Rip n Go boxless container, similar to those seen in Asia,Dolphin Water, Netherlands, in a stand-up drip-free pouch,Prediction Eight: Sustainability Stays Focused on the Basics,31,Prediction Nine: Simplicity for Older Consumers,What it is: Products focus more on simple, realistic results rather than hype or lofty promises Why its important: Older consumers, especially Baby Boomers, continue to look for products tailored to their needs In Europe and North America, over one third of the population is aged 45+ years,An ageing society will mean new challenges for the workforce,Consumer Trends Tie-in,As consumers age, they no longer believe the hype that personal care products offer Opportunity to offer simple, proven solutions instead,32,US consumer attitudes regarding looking younger,Prediction Nine: Simplicity for Older Consumers,Source: Mintel Oxygen,33,What we see in the market: More realistic role models Products with benefits, at mass market prices,LOreals Visible Lift anti-ageing foundation, USA,Prediction Nine: Simplicity for Older Consumers,34,What we see on the market: The beginnings of food and beverage products just for them, with simple, clear benefits,Nestl Nutrition Resource Senior Activ, Switzerland, a nutritional supplement for older adults to aid in improving nutritional status, regaining strength and energy after illness or surgery, and supporting physical strength and cognitive health,Prediction Nine: Simplicity for Older Consumers,35,Prediction Ten: Blurring Categories,What it is: More and more, CPG products cannot be easily slotted in to one category or another, causing confusionand opportunity Why its important: Focus shifts from labels and branding to benefits Concept is a bit more advanced in less-developed countries, where the focus is on value and convenience,Of US consumers use multipurpose facial skincare products,Source: Mintel Oxygen,36,What we see in the market: Simple solutions at a variety of price points,Dr Pepper Snapple Groups Sunkist Solar Fusion, USA, a carbonated fruit-flavored drink with caffeine,LOreals Perfect Clean Foaming Gel, global, with an integrated “scrublet”,Prediction Ten: Blurring Categories,37,Prediction Eleven: New Retro,What it is: Big brands continue to revitalize old products and old ad campaigns Why its important: “Retro” means something different to each age group, providing significant opportunities for many brands,Of US consumers say they would like to see more “old-fashioned” choices on restaurant menus,Source: Mintel Oxygen,38,What we see in the market Unilever created ads to air during the US TV show M