中国国际经济咨询公司.ppt

1,中国国际经济咨询公司,View China Dynamically,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,New China,2,Changes & Chances in China,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,Any country in the world may have changes every day in their economy and environment, but China developed faster in recent 20 years. Furthermore, these changes are not only quantitative, but also essential, which are Chinese characteristics. Economy system, culture attitude, values, consumption view, law system and area differentiation are all changing dramatically, including politic system. These huge changes not only bring mass business opportunities and market space, but also change the business opportunity and the market, and influence the development of world economy. These changing business opportunities and market cause mass chances with risk. Knowing the reason and driving force of the economy development with Chinese characteristics is an important foundation of recognizing and understanding the massive market and product base, and will help to catch the market chance in time, reduce the risk of investment and cooperation, and forecast the future accurately.,3,As a big country with 1.3 billion population who developed fastest in recent several years, its market and investment environment have caused most attention from all over the world. Businessmen who are interested in Chinese market always want to know, Is there any opportunity for me in Chinese market? How to find the opportunity? What is it? How to get it? Is there any risk in Chinese market? What risk is there? How to avoid it? The development and growing up of Chinese Craft bother is chance or threat for me? Do I need find cooperator to develop together? Or prepare for competition in advance? How should I judge the future of Chinese market and the future of Chinese craft bother? People get information about China from different media and businessmen, but the conclusion may be different, even reverse. The reason may be that changes in china are too fast, different places in China have huge differences, people who visit China in different period or go to different region or engage in different businesses always get different image and conclusion.,Different people will have totally different comment on China economy and market,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,4,The difference of region China is a country with wide territory, whose economy of east, west, south, north and middle region are very unbalanced, and the wealth gap between city and country is very huge. The difference of time Chinese economy developed fast, but this development is not only quantitative, but is the change of economy system, social attitude, which have important influences on economy development and market demand.,Attention to two important characteristics of China,North,East,South,West,1979,2006,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,5,The difference for district and between cities and countries,economic development and characteristic in the east, west, south, north and middle of China has huge differences the wealth gap between city and country is very huge. Huge differences cause diversification and multi-polarization of Chinese market demand, which provides wider space for market. The difference restrains the soar of labor cost in developed district and cities. The difference and economic development cause the change of market space and business opportunity.,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,6,the development plan for western region rejuvenating old industrial bases in northeast China the construction of new socialist countryside,The efforts of Chinese government to eliminate the difference between regions and cities & countries,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,7,The Chinese government confirmed the economic reform and opening up policy in 1979. However, because of the views difference and political theoretical differences, the reform and opening encountered a lot of resistance. From 1979 to 1993, the opportunity belonged to the non-state-owned and collective enterprises in rural areas and towns. The Chinese government has basically determined to abandon the planned economy towards the market economy in 1992. This was the most important decision-making that made Chinese economy obtain the real significant development. Beginning from 1994, China has gradually established the relative laws a market economy badly needed, such as : Company Law, Labor Law, and reformed and unified, in the light of the accounting system of the West, the original variety of accounting system. Then China reformed and created new tax system, and promoted the rapid development of the economy substantially. However, this is a gradual process of change and understanding. In 1996 , for promoting the market economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises, China began to promote a comprehensive social security system in the enterprises , including : retirement, health insurance and social housing, which resolved the main contradictions between the development and social stability. In accordance with the needs of the market economy, China began to reform the government management system and the government agencies and to transfer government functions in 1996. In 2001, China reformed the governments law and regulations to meet the requirements and commitment of Chinas accession to WTO.,Several important turning points of Chinese reform and opening up,The difference of time,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,8,79,94,86,98,06,04,02,92,96,00,90,The Law of Chinese-Foreign Contractual Joint (88),88,84,constitution（82、99、2004） criminal law（79、97） Wholly Foreign-owned Enterprise Law（2000） The law of Chinese-Foreign Equity Joint Ventures （1990，2001） Law of Chinese-Foreign Contractual Joint (2000) Company Law（99、06）,Foreign Trade Law ( 2004) Accounting Law（85，93，00, Be amended twelve times ） Copyright Law （90） Trademark Law （93、01)） Patent Law （01） The Law of Commercial Banks （04） Securities Law （2006）,new legal system :,Continue to improve and amended the legal system :,Establishment of Important Legal System in China & Its Influences on Chinas Economy,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,9,Gross Domestic Product (1979 2005),GDP (billion Yuan),China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,10,Total Household Savings (1990 2005),Household Savings (billion Yuan),Total household savings increased by 20 times in the past 15 years.,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,11,Consumer Price Index (1990 2005),Previous years CPI = 100,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,12,The rapid growth of RMB savings balance is the basis of enhancing the purchasing power of the market The stability of price Index will guarantee this foundation. The appreciation potential of the RMB will strengthen the foundation. Changes in consumer attitudes,Potential purchasing power,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,13,Chinas Total International Trade Volume (1990 2005),Total international trade (billion USD),Total imports Total exports,1,422,560,660,762,CAGR of 2000-2005 is 25.6%.,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,14,China international trade has been growing rapidly since its entry into WTO. The average annual growth rate of international trade volume exceeds 25%. China international trade surplus has increased and exceeded USD 100 billion in 2005. The international trade surplus for January to August this year was USD 95 billion, close to the sum of last years surplus. It shows the strong demand and increasing competitiveness of Chinese goods, but also imposes a growing impact on RMB. Chinas economic development increasingly depends on international trade. Currently about 78% of its economy is dependent on international trade, which poses a significant risk to economic development. A lot of attention has been given to the over surplus issue by the Chinese government. In order to solve this problem, the key is to adjust the economic structure, change the drivers of trade growth and to increase the import of advanced technologies and important equipment. It has been clear that the government is studying preferential policies for important equipment import in key areas, including favorable credit, financial subsidy and etc., in order to encourage Chinese companies to import advanced technologies, equipment and key parts. Chinese companies are also encouraged to invest overseas.,China international trade development and future impact,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,15,Key characteristics of China international trade,The export of foreign invested companies composes around 60% of total export, compared with less than 1% in 1985. Processing trade makes up 47% of total import and export volume. Foreign invested companies are also the most important players. General trade Import and export volume makes up about 43% of total import and export volume. Among all exported goods, high tech products, machineries and electronics export grows the fastest. The export of machineries and electronics was USD 244 billion, implying a growth rate of 30.5% compared to the same period in the previous year. It composes 56.9% of total import and export volume for that period. The high tech products export was USD 123 billion, implying a growth rate of 32%. The import of industrial goods is also increasing. The first half of 2006 import was USD 276 billion, implying a growth rate of 18.2% compared to the same period in the previous year. Among all, the import of machineries and electronic products grew 26.5%; the import of cars was 104,000, implying a growth rate of 61.3%. However, the import of steel was 9.4 million tons, implying a decrease of 28.8%.,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,16,The EU continues to be the biggest trade partner for China. In the first half of 2006, the bilateral trade between China and the EU was USD 121 billion, implying a growth rate of 20.9%. The US is the second biggest trade partner. In the first half of 2006, the bilateral trade between China and the US was USD 120 billion, implying a growth rate 24.4%. Japan is the third biggest trade partner. In the first half of 2006, the bilateral trade between China and Japan was USD 96 billion, implying a growth rate of 11.2%. ASEAN is the forth biggest trade partner for China. Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai provinces import and export composes about 60% of total volume.,Key characteristics of China international trade,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,17,Billion USD,July,956,166,286,610,819,Foreign exchange reserves,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,18,In this February, Chinas foreign reserves has reached USD853.6 billion, outstripping those of Japan to become the worlds largest. By end of July, Chinas foreign reserves reached USD954.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%. The World Bank s research report predicts that Chinas foreign reserves will reach USD2.9 trillion by year 2012. The rapid growth of Chinas foreign reserves has aroused concerns from the Chinese Government and its financial supervising organizations which will adopt some actions to prevent possible risks caused by excessively high foreign reserves The excess of foreign reserves will promote the appreciation of RMB. The exchange rate of RMB against USD has increased at about 4% since the Chinese Government adjusted its exchange rates on 21 July 2005. The excessive growth of foreign reserves will undoubtedly stimulate the Chinese Government to encourage its enterprises to increase overseas investment and the import of products and technologies, and encourage the development of domestic market and demand.,Rapid Growth of Foreign Reserves Will Impel China to Increase its Overseas Investment & Product Import,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,19,Billion USD,The amount of foreign direct investment actually used in China,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,20,In recent years, the number and volume of foreign investors in China have been decreasing. However, it is still at a high level and is relatively stable. Chinese government has been adjusting the preferential policies for attracting foreign investors. It has been focusing more on the structure of the investment rather than sheer volume. “Investment Guidance Manual” and tax adjustment are used to direct foreign investment. More emphasis has been put on high tech industries, environmental protection and energy saving. As the regulation is relaxed for foreign investment, foreign invested companies are moving from joint-ventures, partnerships to wholly owned subsidiaries. On the other hand, it also shows that many foreign investors are understanding Chinas investment atmosphere and market more and more.,Changes in foreign investors in China,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,21,Billion yuan,State revenues,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,22,The rapid growth in government revenue will greatly enhance the capability of the government to public facilities and social services, education, environmental protection input Government procurement reform, to replace the original opaque manner with open tender , and improve transparency and fairness in the procurement The rapid growth of fiscal revenue will accelerate the reform of public institutions, strengthen and improve the social security system and the stable social order.,The economic impact of the rapid growth of public finance income,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,23,Billion Yuan,Total Fixed asset investment,CAGR of 2002-2005 is 27%,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,24,Too fast growth of Chinas fixed asset investment is one of the important factors for GDP high growth, which will increase Chinas economic operation risk. Currently China is taking various measures to mitigate the excessive investment in fixed assets, to reduce the risk of the bubble economy and, to strengthen and improve the control requirements on environment, energy, water and other resources for the protection of balanced economic development. The government has started to pay attention to and step up the input and support in the environmental protection, energy, water, resource utilization, improve public health facilities and services. It has defined the target in the 11th Five-Year Plan. Therefore, there will be more development opportunities in these areas in the future.,Chinese Government Started Actively To Make Adjustments On Methods of Its Economic Growth,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,25,To Seek For Business Opportunities From The Specialties of Chinese Economical Development,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,26,China International Economic Consultants Co., Ltd.,中国国际经济咨询公司,The Chinese government will formulate a five-year economic development goals and detail plan every five years, which covers all areas of China, and in great detail. The goal seek to increase more in number, and have an important impact on economic development. The tenth Five-Year Plan for the reform plan change the mode to formulate the plan in 2000. The plan is aimed at key economic indicators and the industry that the government will focus on. the plan that will Begin in 2006 will no longer be “plan“ but “11th Five-year“ plan, and abandon the pursuit of economic growth indicators, and eat balanced development and environmental protection and energy conservation. And it will highlight the following principles, maintaining steady and fairly rapid economic development, speeding up the transformation of the mode of economic growth, enhancing the capability of independent innovation, promoting coordinated development of urban and rural areas, strengthening the building of a harmonious society, continuously deepening the reform and opening up. The Main targets are, optimizing the economic structure, improving efficiency and lowering consumption, improving the efficiency of resource use, energy consumption of per unit GDP reduced 20% than the end of the “Tenth Five Year Plan“, curbing the tendency of deterioration of the ecological environment basically, controlling the farmland to reduce excessive situation effectively, strengthening independent intellectual property rights and brands, Improving the market economic system, raising the level of opening up, realizing the basic balance of international payments, consolidating the nine-year compulsory education universal, sustaining urban jobs, building a relatively sound social security system, and the population living in poverty continued to decline, the level of income of urban and rural residents increasing and improving the quality of life generally, the overall price level basically being stable, the housing, transport, education, culture, health and environmental aspects of the conditions having been greatly improved, democracy and legal system construction and spiritual civilization construction making new headway, improving public order and safety situation further, making new progress in building a harmonious society.,The economic impact of Chinas five-year plan,27,Concentrated supply chain and new opportunities,Many industries and products in China have very concentrated large regional market, production centers and supply chain and network. Examples include: Yiwu small products market and surrounding manufacturers in Zhejiang Province has become a world famous supply center for small products. “Qing Fang Ch