台湾策略：的前几大科技股票

1、31 December 2019TaiwanEQUITIESRecent Taiwan key reports:Server/Networking Tracker - 2020 outlook focus on datacenter growthTSMC (2330 TT) (Outperform) - 2020 revenue projection of 16% YoY growthUMC (2303 TT) (Outperform) - Expect multiple 2020 growth driversVanguard (5347 TT) (Outperform) - Strong P

2、MIC demand boosting earnings upsideAccton Technology (2345 TT) (Outperform) - 3Q margin beat; continue to be positive on 2020Parade Technologies (4966 TT) (Outperform) - Solid 3Q, upped GPM range, weak 4Q QoQAlchip Technologies Ltd (3661 TT) (Outperform) - Sweet spot for China CPU growthKYEC (2449 T

3、T) (Outperform) - 5G and image sensors driving 2020E growthWiwynn Corp (6669 TT) (Outperform) - Beneficiary of datacentre returning to growth trajectory in 2020/21Chroma ATE (2360 TT) (Outperform) - Upgrade to OP on 3D, EV, and 5GHon Hai Precision (2317 TT) (Outperform) - Good 3Q19 margin beat / sea

4、sonal guidanceLargan Precision (3008 TT) - Raining cameras!MediaTek (2454 TT) (Underperform) - Challenges in high-end 5G smartphone marketAirTAC (1590 TT) (Underperform) - A weak 3Q and visibility remains lowAnalystsMacquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities BranchJeffrey Ohlweiler +886 2 2734 751

5、2 HYPERLINK mailto:jeffrey.ohlweiler jeffrey.ohlweilerPatrick Liao +886 2 2734 7515 HYPERLINK mailto:patrick.liao patrick.liaoKaylin Tsai +886 2 2734 7523 HYPERLINK mailto:kaylin.tsai kaylin.tsaiAngela Huang +886 2 2734 7538 HYPERLINK mailto:angela.huang angela.huangMacquarie Capital LimitedNicolas

6、Baratte +852 3922 5801 HYPERLINK mailto:nicolas.baratte nicolas.baratteCherry Ma +852 3922 5800 HYPERLINK mailto:cherry.ma cherry.maErica Chen +86 21 2412 9024 HYPERLINK mailto:erica.chen erica.chenFiona Liu +852 3922 1368 HYPERLINK mailto:fiona.liu fiona.liuTaiwan StrategyPart I (Tech): top Taiwan

7、tech picks for 2020Key points In this report, we provide our top 2020 picks, give forecasts for key tech drivers, and overview 15 tech subsectors (including our top picks in each). More selective stock picking in 2020 after Taiwan tech up 36% in 2019. Most of our Taiwan tech buys focused in semicond

8、uctors and servers.Coming off a strong tech led rally 2019 (high expected EPS growth)The TAIEX was up 23% in 2019 driven by tech (+36%), and the NT$ was also up 1.9% vs US$. Financials were up 14% and non-tech was up 7%. Foreigners net bought US$7bn+. Consensus EPS growth for 2020/2021 has been risi

9、ng and now at 14%/12% (predominantly via tech up 21%/16%). Our 2020 year-end TAIEX target is 12,500 or 16x 2020/21 average (in line with 10-year historical).1H slow season likely to be better than normal for many tech areasUnlike 2019, we are heading into a new year after an inventory and component

10、price correction (and low base comparison) that will likely lead to a better-than- normal 1H seasonality for many tech areas (especially where concerns of potential shortages/price hikes are expected in 2H20 e.g. tech cyclicals).For 2020, we expect a strong rebound in semi revenues, a logic-led incr

11、ease in SPE spending, memory price rebound from 2Q20, a return to smartphone growth (due to 5G), an acceleration in datacentre unit shipments (with enterprise units also up YoY), flattish PC shipments, and a muted industrial automation rebound.Tech longs focused on semiconductor and server related s

12、tocksMost of our top tech buys are focused on semiconductor and server names, as those are the areas that are both in a sustainable growth period and where Taiwanese companies are in a good competitive position. Although we downgraded several tech stocks into strength in 4Q due to valuations oversho

13、ots (e.g. MediaTek / Silergy / Aspeed), we still expect tech to outperform in 2020, albeit less than 2019. We still have a few 2019 high performers in our top picks, either because we expect a significantly better-than-normal seasonal 1H20 (Alchip), or still have relative low valuations (Parade).Sem

14、iconductors: Foundry TSMC remains one of our top picks due to strong growth in 2020+ (5G, AMD share gains, semi growth/rebound, etc.), and UMC for increasing 28nm utilization rates in 1H20 (+solid 8” demand). Parade is our top IC Design pick for strong top-line growth and margin upside from its high

15、-speed interface IC (shipping to servers 1H20) and Alchip on strong China CPU growth. PTI is our top Memory pick for valuations, and strong 20/21 growth (+better-than- normal 1H20 seasonality), and KYEC in OSAT for strong continued growth in 2020 with increasing utilization rates. Top semi sells Med

16、iaTek after strong 2019 performance (and we believe consensus numbers/valuations are too high).Other tech: include: Server Wiwynn only pure datacentre play with strong EPS growth, Networking Accton as the best way to capture hyperscale switch revenue growth (+bandwidth/speed upgrades and telecom whi

17、tebox adoption), OEM Hon Hai for good server/networking growth (+margin expansion), IPC Ennoconn for valuations, top-line growth and margin upside, and for Smartphone Components/Lens Largan for spec/resolution/# of camera increases. Top other sells AirTAC for valuations + muted 2020 IA rebound.Pleas

18、e refer to page 33 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website HYPERLINK /research/disclosures /research/disclosures.Table of contentsPage # HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Taiwan Tech Top Picks (2020)2 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 2019 recap and 2020 forecasts3-4Key Tech Drivers HYPER

19、LINK l _TOC_250013 Semiconductors strong rebound expected in 20205 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Smartphones (+Apple/Huawei exposure) 5G to reverse negative trend6-8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Servers Datacenter recovery, replacement and Intel 10nm Icelake9-10PCs 2020 PC to decline after an upbeat 201911 HYP

20、ERLINK l _TOC_250010 Top Picks by Subsector HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Semiconductor Foundry12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Semiconductor OSAT13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Semiconductor IC design14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Semiconductor IC design service15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Semiconductor Memory16 HYPERLIN

21、K l _TOC_250004 Semiconductor (Other) Wafers / Diodes17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 PC / NB ODMs / Brands / OEM18Server19Networking20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Lens21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Other components22Industrial Automation & Testing Equipment23Industrial PC24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 LCD / Touch25A

22、uto Electronics26Taiwan Market Charts (+ Valuations on 31 and P/E chart on 32)27-30Taiwan Tech Top Picks (2020)Fig 1 Taiwan Tech Top Picks 2020Mkt CapCPTPTSRTickerCompanyRating(US$m)(LC)(LC)(%)AnalystTop Buy2330 TTTSMCO286,481331.0385.019%Patrick Liao2317 TTHon HaiO41,93690.8115.532%Jeff Ohlweiler30

23、08 TTLarganO22,3875,000.05,800.017%Cherry Ma2303 TTUMCO6,43716.520.025%Patrick Liao6669 TTWiwynn CorpO3,699635.0714.015%Kaylin Tsai2345 TTAcctonO3,129168.0208.026%Kaylin Tsai6239 TTPowertechO2,59599.8115.020%Jeff Ohlweiler4966 TTParadeO1,610615.0824.036%Jeff Ohlweiler2449 TTKYECO1,53337.644.021%Patr

24、ick Liao6414 TTEnnoconn CorpO688247.0326.035%Jeff Ohlweiler3661 TTAlchipO473234.5289.024%Jeff OhlweilerTop Short2454 TTMediaTekU23,532443.5330.0-24%Patrick Liao1590 TTAirTACU2,812466.5341.0-26%Jeff OhlweilerSource: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, December 2019. Close price based on 31 Dec 20192019 re

25、cap and 2020 forecastsThe TAIEX was up 23% in 2019 driven by tech (+36%), and the NT$ was also up 1.9% vs US$. Consensus EPS growth for 2020 has been rising and now at 14% (predominantly via tech up 21%) 2021 numbers also high at +12% (tech +16%). Our 2020 year-end TAIEX target is 12,500 or 16x 2020

26、/21 average consensus earnings (in line with 10-year historical).High beta IC design companies (as a group) had the best share price performance in 2019 (after semiconductor inventory correction bottomed in mid-2019 and outlook for 2020/21 is very positive. LCD names were the worst performers due to

27、 lower LCD prices and quarterly losses since 4Q18 (but did see some rebound in December on news of possible price hikes in 1Q20 after industry capacity shutdown announcements).Fig 2Tech subsector share price performance (re TAIEX), 201990%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%IC designServerLensMemoryFoundryOth

28、er componentsIC design serviceOSATIPCNetworkingAutomationWafersODM/OBM/EMSAuto electronicsLCD/touch-10%Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, December 2019Fig 3 Top-10/bottom-5 share price outperformers in tech space in 2019TickerCompany2019 share price performanceTop-103661 TTAlchip240%3105 TTWin Semi149

29、%6669 TTWiwynn129%6415 TTSilergy110%2383 TTElite Material109%2337 TTMacronix103%2454 TTMediaTek93%4958 TTZDT78%2345 TTAccton70%5274 TTASPEED63%Bottom-52409 TTAUO-18%3481 TTInnolux Corp-14%2353 TTAcer-8%6285 TTWistron NeWeb-6%3665 TTBizlink Holding1%Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, December 2019Fig 4

30、Tech subsector 2019/20E revenue growth momentum2019E revenue growth2020E revenue growth30%20%10%0%-10%-20%IC design serviceServerLensFoundryIC designNetworkingOther compo.OSATIPCMemoryAuto electronicsAutomationWafersODM/OBM/EMSLCD/touch-30%Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, December 2019Fig 5Tec

31、h subsector 2019/20E net profit growth momentum2019E net profit growth2020E net profit growth60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%IC design serviceOSATFoundryOther compo.AutomationServerNetworkingLensIC designIPCMemoryAuto electronicsODM/OBM/EMSWafers-80%*Note: LCD/touch subsector is excluded as LCD players have

32、experienced large losses in 2019 from net profits in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, December 2019We forecast IC design services (GUC and Alchip) to show the largest YoY growth in both revenues/new profit in 2020 on continued strong China CPU momentum, customers AI chip launches, and oth

33、er 7nm projects. OSAT to show strong net profit growth on double digit revenue growth plus utilization led margin boost. Wafers to show the least net profit growth on ASP declines more than offsetting higher shipments.Key Tech Drivers (semiconductors, smartphones, servers, PCs)Semiconductors strong

34、rebound expected in 2020Semiconductors: Due to a combination of weak semiconductor demand and inventory correction in 2H18/1H19 and large YoY drop in memory prices, 2019 semi growth was down double digits. We expect a strong rebound (off low 2019 base) in 2020 followed by stable mid-single digit gro

35、wth in 2021/22. Longer term, we continue to be bullish on this area due to key drivers of: AI, EV, IoT, 5G (content growth across all areas).Fig 6 Global semiconductor salesUS$bn20152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022EGlobal semiconductor sales335.2338.9412.2468.8406.8452.6475.2494.3YoY change %-0.2%1.1

36、%21.6%13.7%-13.2%11.3%5.0%4.0%Source: SEMI data, Macquarie Research, December 2019SPE: After 3 years of double-digit SPE spending 2016-18 (along with strong semi growth), 2019 dropped double digits (along with semi inventory correction). We expect a modest rebound in 2020 (strong logic spending part

37、ially offset by another conservative year for memory spending). 2021 to resume double digit- growth along with increased memory spending.Fig 7 Global semiconductor production equipment (SPE) salesUS$ bn20152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022EGlobal SPE sales36.741.256.764.556.860.567.571.2YoY change %-2

38、.2%12.5%37.5%13.8%-11.9%6.5%11.6%5.5%Source: SEMI data, Macquarie Research, December 2019Fig 8Semiconductor revenue YoY vs index70%60%50%Growing smartphone unit shipmentsGlobalStrong growth in memory, driven by rising demand in AI, IoT, datacenter, cloud computingCryptocurrency boom in 2/p>

39、40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Financial CrisisSoft macro environmentDecline in PC and tablet shipments300250200150100-30%-40%Growing semiconductor content in smartphones, driven by 4G upgradeOverall demand negatively50impacted by US-China trade warNov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-

40、11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19Nov-190Global semiconductor revenue YoY (LHS)MSCI World SEMI/SEMI EQP Index (RHS)Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, December 2

41、019Smartphones (+Apple/Huawei exposure) 5G to reverse negative trendFollowing negative YoY unit growth in 2019, we expect 5G smartphones to create a wave of replacement demand in the coming years leading to growth of 0.5%/ 2.6%/ 4.0%/ 2.6% in 2020/ 21/ 22/ 23E (with top 6 brands continuing to grow m

42、arket share from 71% in 19E to 82% in 23E). (released in Nov 2019, link)Fig 9 Global smartphone shipments by brand201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022E2023EAnalystUnit (m units)Samsung317324309317291303327348Daniel KimHuawei74104133151203248270344Cherry MaApple193226216215209185201193Cherry MaXia

43、omi58666189122121127148Cherry MaOPPO313985112119119122135Cherry MaVivo313572100102117118131Cherry MaLenovo/Motorola9473524739403939Nicolas BaratteLG Electronics5960555639363839Daniel KimOthers387497512450430360295200Total1,2451,4241,4961,5371,5551,5291,5371,5771,6401,682YoY21.7%14.4%5.1%2.7%1.2%-1.7

44、%0.5%2.6%4.0%2.6%5G volume192305848601,1525G penetration1%15%37%52%68%Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, December 2019Fig 10Apple supply chainApple exposure (%)NameTickerProductiPhoneiPadWatchMac- bookAirPods/iMac/iPodTotalSemiTSMC2330 TTFoundry11-150-5310-520-25ASE3711 TTAssembly, Wi-Fi module, F

45、ingerprint module and SiP10-150-55-1010-525-30Chipbond6147 TTAssembly/test for DDIC10510-15JCET600584 CH Assembly55WinSemi3105 TT3D sensing and PA1515Parade4966 TTTransmission IC251540Powertech6239 TTMemory510CasingsLens Tech300433 CH Glass casing25-3510-155-1040-50Biel CrystalPrivateGlass casing25-

46、3510-155-1040-50Catcher2474 TTMetal casing40-455-1015265-70Casetek5264 TTCasing50-553080-85FTC2354 TTMetal casing5010765-70Camera/ ImagingLargan3008 TTCamera lens30-350-535-40Genius3406 TTLens50-6010-2070ASM Pacific522 HKAA equipment111HimaxHIMX US 3D sensing55O-film002456 CH Camera modules10-15510-

47、15Cowell1415 HKCamera modules90-9590-95Acoustics/hapticsAAC2018 HKAcoustics, Haptics, RF45-505555-60Goertek002241 CH Acoustic25-3010-15540Jinlong300032 CH Haptics510-1515Luxshare002475 CH Acoustics, Haptics, Airpods20-25555-1020-2560-65Primax4915 TTAcoustic15-2015-20ODMHon Hai2317 TTODM25-30105245-5

48、0Pegatron4938 TTODM50-55555-60Quanta2382 TTODM5-1025-305-1040-50Wistron3231 TTODM15-2015-20Compal2324 TTODM5-10510-15Inventec2356 TTODM5-105-10DisplayGIS6456 TTTouch Panel, pressure sensor35-4040-4575-85Radiant6176 TTBLU530-405540-45TPK3673 TTTouch Panel, pressure sensor20-2520-2510-1550-55PCBCareer

49、6153 TTFPCB35-4010-155-105-1060-70Compeq2313 TTPCB15-2015-2030-40Flexium6269 TTFPCB70-755-105-1080-90Kinsus3189 TTIC substrate25-3025-30Unimicron3037 TTPCB10-155-105-105-1030-40ZDT4958 TTFPCB65-755-105-1075-85Taiflex8039 TTFCCL15-200-50-520-25Nanya PCB8046 TTIC substrate0-55-100-510-15Elite Material

50、2383 TTCCL5-100-50-55-15Misc. componentsSunway300136 CH Antenna, RF shields, Lightening connectors25-30105540Tongda698 HKWaterproof components5-105-10Everwin300115 CH Connectors55-810Cheng Uei2392 TTCable and connector351055560Delta (Cyntec)2308 TTPassive component5337-10Dynapack3211 TTBattery modul

51、e540-4515-2060-70SZS3376 TTHinge2213-153-420-25Hans Laser002008 CH Laser cutting/welding/marking35-40520Win Semi3105 TTFoundry for smartphone PA15-20KYEC2449 TTIC testing15-20Novatek3034 TTSmartphone driver IC10-15TSMC2330 TTFoundry for smartphone, consumer, telecom equipment IC10-15ASE3711 TTIC Pac

52、kaging and Testing10JCET600584 CHIC Packaging and Testing15CHPT6510 TTWafer/ IC testing board5Vanguard5347 TTFoundry for smartphone driver IC5UMC2303 TTFoundry for smartphone driver IC5Realtek2379 TTNetworking IC5MediaTek2454 TTSmartphone, consumer IC5CasingsBYDE285 HKCasing25-30Lens Tech300433 CHCa

53、sing15Everwin300115 CHCasing9Tongda698 HKCasing10Camera/ImagingO-film002456 CHModules, fingerprint, touch screen20-25Sunny Optical2382 HKModules, Camera20-25Largan3008 TTCamera25-30Q Tech1478 HKCamera, fingerprint15-20Acoustics/HapticsGoertek002241 CHAcoustics10AAC2018 HKAcoustics10DisplayBOE000725

54、CHScreen- AMOLED10PCBElite Materials2383 TTCCL7ZDT4958 TTFPCB/HDI5Kinsus3189 TTIC Substrate10Career6153 TTFPCB0-5Misc. componentsSunwoda300207 CHBattery30Sunlord002138 CHInductor12-13Desay000049 CHBattery10-15Sunway300136 CHAntenna10% top- line/bottom-line growth in 2020E, driven mainly by increment

55、al demand from 5G base station and 5G smartphone. Top buys: TSMC, Vanguard, UMC. We have a Neutral rating on Win Semi with a major concern about rising competition from Chinese domestic GaAs vendor Sanan.TSMC we forecast TSMCs revenue will grow 16% YoY in 2020. We believe some push-out iPhone 11 dem

56、and and incremental iPhone SE2 demand in 1Q20 will lead to earnings upside for TSMC in 1Q20/2020. 5nm should become a new driver in 2H20 - key contributing customers will be Apple (new iPhone 12 series) and Huawei (Mate models). As the foundry technology leader, we believe TSMC is managing a better

57、learning curve for 5nm yield rate at the initial stage.Vanguard we expect a brighter outlook for 1Q20 and beyond, as the strong power management IC (PMIC) orders should boost the utilization rate (UTR) in the new Singapore Fab 3E starting 1Q20 (to over 50% level in early 2020 mitigating the margin d

58、ilution from the new fab). Moreover, the likely rebound in large-sized DDIC business will provide further upside.UMC We expect Samsungs ISP (Image Sensor Processor) and OLED DDIC (display driver IC) for BOE and Tianma to be the key drivers for UMC in 2020. UMC will also introduce 40-90nm DDIC produc

59、ts to Fab 12M to: 1) improve the UTR in Fab 12M, and 2) ease the DDIC capacity shortage, which we expect to lead to upside in 1H20.Fig 19 Taiwan foundries 2020E YoY revenue/EPS growthFig 20 Fabless inventory days30%25%20%15%10%5%(US$mn) 9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0001Q073Q071Q083Q081Q

60、093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q190(Days)90858075706560555028% 28%28%25%22%16%16%12%0%VanguardWin SemiTSMCUMC 2020E revenue growth2020E EPS growthInventoryInventory days 5 year avg inventory daysSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 20