UBS Economics-US Economic Perspectives -April CPI Preview Likely a bit better-此为英文文档

ab

GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab8May2024

USEconomicPerspectives

AprilCPIPreview:Likelyabitbetter

HeadlineCPI:UBSUSEcon0.39%,UBSNowcast0.37%,consensus0.35%

NextWednesday's(May15)CPIreleaseislikelytoshowtheheadlineCPIcontinuestoincreaseatanelevatedpacewiththeAprilincreaseprojectedat39bp(seasonally-adjusted)andtwelve-monthinflationprojectedtoremainat3.5%.A3%riseingasolinepricesshouldpushtheheadlineCPIpriceincreaseabout8bpabovethecoreCPIincrease,thoughweexpectamoderatefoodpriceincreasethatisnonethelessalittleabovethepaceinFebruaryandMarch.Our39bpheadlineCPIprojectionisabitabovethecurrentBloombergconsensusaverageforecastandtheprojectionfromourNowcastingmodels.Theprojectednot-seasonally-adjustedcoreCPIlevel,at313.870,isabout5basispointaboverecentswapsfixings.

CoreCPI:UBSUSEcon0.31%,UBSNowcast0.33%,consensus0.31%

The31bpseasonally-adjustedincreasethatweprojectforAprilwouldalittlelowerthan36bpto39bpincreaseoverthepastfewmonthsand,moreimportantly,wellbelowthe47bpincreaseinApriloflastyear.AsaresultweexpectcoreCPIinflationtostepdownfrom3.80%toaround3.66%.Ifthisiscorrect,Aprilwouldbethe16thmonthofthepast18monthswherecoreCPIinflationhaseased(thoughinsomemonthstheslowinghasbeenonlyacoupleofbasispoints).

ThemoderateslowingfromMarch's36bpincreasetoApril's31bpincreaseisalmostentirelyaccountedforbyourexpectationthatpricesfornon-airfaretransportationserviceswilleasefromlastmonth'sblazing1.8%increase(amongthetop2%ofincreasesinthepast25years).InMarchnon-airfaretransportationCPIwaspushedupbythethirdlargestjumpinmotorvehicleinsurancepricesinfiftyyears.(Thetwolargerincreasescameasinsurancepricesreturnedtonormallevelsfollowingrebatesatthestartofthepandemic).Nonetheless,weprojectnon-airfaretransportationservicespricesinApriltowillstillincreaseastrong1.0%(amongthotop5%ofincreasesoverpast25years)assomeoftheMarchmotorvehicleinsurancepriceincreasecarriesintoApril—theresultoftheCPIsamplingmanycitiesonlyeveryothermonth.

Otheritemsareprojectedto,onnet,seepriceincreasesinAprilthataresimilartoMarch:Usedcarpricesareprojectedtodeclinemorethan1%againleadingto10thmonthoffallingcoregoodspricesoverthepast11months.Owners'equivalentrent(OER)isexpectedtopostanothersolidincreaseasaratherlargeseasonalfactorshouldkeepslowingrentsatbaythismonth.Incontrast,aonce-every-six-monthsupdateinApriltotheretainedearningsratioforCPImedicalinsuranceshouldsetCPIhealthinsurancepricesonalowerpacethroughSeptember.

AfullcategoryroundupofourprojectionisbelowinFigure20andadditionaldetailsareavailableintheUSinflationforecastspreadsheetonourwebsite.

Uncertaintyelevated,slightupsideskew

Wefeeltherangeofuncertaintyremainselevatedwiththeskewslightlytotheupsidethismonthfromthepossibilityofastronger-than-projectedechoeffectinvehicleinsuranceandtheseasonaladjustmentupsiderisktorents.WewouldnotbesurprisedtoseeacoreCPIincreaseanywherefrom24bpto39bp.

Slowingexpectedoverthenextfewmonths,butwaitingforrents

WecurrentlyprojecttheheadlineCPItoincreaseonlyaround10bpinMay,asearlyMaygasolinepricessuggestadecline,whilethecoreCPIincreasesbetween25to30bpin

Economics

Americas

AlanDetmeister

Economist

alan.detmeister@+1-212-7131222

JonathanPingle

Economist

jonathan.pingle@+1-212-7132225

PierreLafourcade

Economist

pierre.lafourcade@+1-212-7134543

AbigailWatt

Economist

abigail.watt@+44-20-75671062

AmandaWilcox

Economist

amanda.wilcox@+1-212-713-2000

CPIsummary

MoM(SA):CPI0.39%,CoreCPI0.31%

YoY(NSA):CPI3.46%,CoreCPI3.66%

Indexlevel:CPI(NSA)313.870,CoreCPI(SA)317.875

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSBrasilCCTVMS.A..ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage8.

Figure2:ProjectionsversustheinitialreleaseofcoreCPIinflation

Figure1:Projectionsversustheinitialreleaseofheadline

CPIinflation

USEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab3

Centspergallon

500

Retailmargin

Brentcrudeoilprice

400

300

200

100

Wholesalemargin

Apr-24

0

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Source:Bloomberg,EIA,UBS

Figure5:Pricesforfoodathome(groceries)areprojectedtoshowamoderateincreasethatwouldnotbeoutofthepre-pandemicnorm

0.60

0.45

0.30

0.15

0.00

-0.15

%changem/m

(bps):

UBS

Standard

Errors

BBG

sinceNov2017:10.415.9

sinceMar2020:12.219.3

BLSrelease

UBSUSEconomics

average

Bloombergconsensus

Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24

Source:Bloomberg,BLS,UBSestimates.Note:UsesfinalprojectionpriortoCPIrelease.

Figure3:Retailgasolinepriceshavestoppedrisinginthepastcoupleofweeks

15%

12-monthchange

1.5%

m/mchange,SA

+2.5%

10%

1.0%

5%

0.5%

0%

0.0%

-1.0%

1-monthchange(left)

-0.5%12-monthchange(right)-5%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

0.60

0.45

0.30

0.15

0.00

-0.15

%changem/m

BLSrelease

UBSUSEconomics

Bloombergconsensusaverage

StandardErrors(bps):UBSBBG

14.617.5

11.113.0

sinceNov2017:

sinceMar2020:

Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24

Source:Bloomberg,BLS,UBSestimates.Note:UsesfinalprojectionpriortoCPIrelease.

Figure4:Nextweek'sCPIshouldshowgasolinepricesincreasingonaseasonally-adjustedbasisaswell

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

m/mchange,SA

pricelevelSA)Feb2020=100

1-monthchange(left)Pricelevel(right)

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure6:Pricesforfoodawayfromhome(restaurants)slowedconsiderablylastmonthandweexpectsomethingakintotheMarchincreaseinApril

1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

12-monthchange(right)

m/mchange,SA12-monthchange

1-monthchange(left)

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure8:CoregoodspricesareprojectedtohavedeclinedslightlyinApril...

Figure7:ThecoreCPIincreaseisprojectedtobealittleless

thaninthepastfewmonthsbutstillstrong

USEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab4

0.75%

0.50%

0.25%

0.00%

-0.25%

-0.50%

m/mchange,SA12-monthchange

1-monthchange(left)

12-monthchange(right)

7.5%

5.0%

2.5%

0.0%

-2.5%

-5.0%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure9:...asusedvehiclepricesfallnotably...

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

m/mchange,

SA

pricelevel,SA

(Feb2020=100)

1-monthchange(left)

Pricelevel(right)

160

148

136

124

112

100

88

76

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure11:Excludingtransportationweprojectanothersmallpickupinpricesforcoregoods—partiallyinresponsetothepass-throughofincreasesinshippingcosts

0.8%

0.4%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.8%

m/mchange,SA12-month%change

1-monthchange(left)

12-monthchange(right)

6%

3%

0%

-3%

-6%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

1.6%

0.8%

0.0%

-0.8%

m/m

change,

SA12-month%change

1-monthchange(left)Pricelevel(right)

10%

5%

0%

-5%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure10:...andnewvehiclepricesedgedown

2.1%

1.4%

0.7%

0.0%

-0.7%

m/mchange,SA

pricelevel,SA(Feb2020=100)

1-monthchange(left)

Pricelevel(right)

124

116

108

100

92

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure12:Weforecastowners'equivalentrentwillseeacouplemorestrongmonthsbeforeslowingtowardtheincreasesinnewtenants'rents

0.8%

0.7%

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

m/mchange,SA12-monthchange

1-monthchange(left)

12-monthchange(right)

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure13:Pricesforcoreservicesexcludingrentsareprojectedtorise49bp,whichisabitlowerthantheaverageinthepastthreemonths

Figure14:Pricesfornon-airfaretransportationservicesareexpectedcontinuetoincreasewellabovetheirpre-pandemicpace,butlessthaninMarch

USEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab5

0.9%

0.4%

-0.1%

-0.6%

-1.1%

m/mchange,SA12-month%change

1-monthchange(left)

12-monthchange(right)

7%

5%

3%

1%

-1%

-3%

-5%

-7%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure15:Roughlyhalfofnon-airfarestransportationservicesisthepriceofmotorvehicleinsurancewhichsurgedinMarchandisup22%overthelast12months

3.0%

2.4%

1.8%

1.2%

0.6%

0.0%

-0.6%

-1.2%

m/mchange,SA

12-month%change

1-monthchange

12-monthchange

20%

10%

0%

-10%

Mar-2018Mar-2020Mar-2022Mar-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure17:...asmedicalinsurancepricesstarttofall

2.0%

-0.1%

-2.2%

-4.3%

m/mchange,SA

12-month%change

1-monthchange(left)

12-monthchange(right)

20%

-1%

-22%

-43%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

12-month%

change

m/mchange,SA

1-monthchange(left)

12-monthchange(right)

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure16:TheCPIformedicalservicesshouldslowinApril...

0.7%

0.0%

-0.7%

m/m

change,

SA

12-month%change

1-monthchange(left)

12-monthchange(right)

7%

0%

-7%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure18:Increasesforcoreservicesexcludinghousing,medical,andtransportationhavebeenvolatileandareprojectedtograduallyease

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.2%

m/mchange,SA12-month%change

1-monthchange(left)

12-monthchange(right)

6.0%

4.5%

3.0%

1.5%

0.0%

-1.5%

Sep-2018Sep-2020Sep-2022Sep-2024

Source:BLS,UBS

Figure19:Weproject12-monthinflationwilledgeupfortheheadlineCPI,butdownforthecoreCPI

USEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab6

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

12-m%change

headlineCPI

coreCPI

Dec-16Dec-18Dec-20Dec-22Dec-24Dec-26

Source:BLS,UBSestimates

Figure20:ForecastedseasonallyadjustedmonthlychangesfordetailedCPIcomponents

USEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab7

DataForecast

HeadlineCPI

Food

Foodathome

Foodawayfromhome

Energy

Energygoods

Energyservices

CPIex.food&energy

Goodsex.food&energy

Householdfurnishings&supplies

Apparel

TransportationcommoditieslessmotorfuelNewvehicles

Usedcars&trucks

MVparts&equipment

Medicalcarecommodities

Recreationcommodities

EducationandcommunicationgoodsEducationalbooks&supplies

Informationtechnologygoods

Alcoholicbeverages

Othergoods

Servicesex.energy

Shelter

Owners'equivalentrent

Tenants'rent

Lodgingawayfromhome

Tenants'&householdinsurance

Medicalcareservices

Water,sewer,&trash

Householdoperations

Transportationservices

Airlinefares

Othertransportationservices

EducationandcommunicationservicesTuitionandotherschoolfees

Communicationservices

Recreationalservices

Otherpersonalservices

PCEpriceindex

Excludingfood&energy

12-monthchanges

CPI

CPIexcludingfood&energy

PCEpriceindex

PCEpriceindexexcludingfood&energy

Share

100.0

13.4

8.1

5.3

6.9

3.8

3.1

79.7

18.7

3.5

2.6

6.1

3.6

1.9

0.5

1.5

2.0

0.9

0.1

0.8

0.8

1.4

61.0

36.2

26.6

7.6

1.5

0.4

6.5

1.1

0.9

6.5

0.8

5.7

5.0

2.4

2.6

3.2

1.5

453

0.44

0.02-0.030.10

2.263.550.76

0.36

0.11-0.310.550.10-0.100.52-0.190.09-0.200.240.580.21-0.050.67

0.460.430.440.460.15-0.11-0.050.450.701.393.571.090.450.370.540.45-0.62

0.34

0.27

3.153.752.502.84

Mar

0.38

0.10

0.00

0.26

1.13

1.49

0.71

0.36

-0.15

-0.12

0.65

-0.47

-0.17

-1.11

-0.16

0.16

-0.46

-1.16

-0.89

-1.19

0.09

0.22

0.52

0.42

0.44

0.41

0.08

0.51

0.56

0.29

0.83

1.52

-0.37

1.80

0.20

0.19

0.20

0.06

0.76

0.32

0.32

3.48

3.80

2.71

2.82

Apr

0.39

0.180.150.22

1.733.000.20

0.31

-0.16-0.100.40-0.57-0.24-1.30-0.160.15-0.15-0.430.20-0.500.010.14

0.450.430.430.400.700.250.440.380.600.880.001.000.200.250.150.300.30

0.31

0.25

3.463.662.722.77

May

0.10

0.17

0.15

0.21

-1.86

-3.49

0.20

0.27

0.00

-0.10

-0.05

0.06

-0.15

0.50

-0.10

0.15

-0.10

-0.43

0.20

-0.50

0.15

0.24

0.35

0.40

0.40

0.37

0.50

0.25

0.25

0.30

0.25

0.39

-1.00

0.60

0.17

0.20

0.15

0.25

0.25

0.10

0.19

3.48

3.58

2.71

2.66

Jun

0.13

0.17

0.15

0.21

-0.53

-1.12

0.20

0.19

-0.18

-0.10

-0.05

-0.50

-0.15

-1.25

-0.10

0.15

-0.10

-0.43

0.20

-0.50

0.15

0.24

0.30

0.30

0.31

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.23

0.30

0.25

0.47

0.25

0.50

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.25

0.25

0.12

0.15

3.38

3.55

2.66

2.64

Jul

0.21

0.170.150.21

0.410.580.20

0.20

-0.08-0.10-0.05-0.18-0.15-0.25-0.100.15-0.10-0.480.20-0.550.150.24

0.280.300.300.330.250.200.190.300.250.380.250.400.150.150.150.250.25

0.16

0.15

Aug

0.23

0.180.160.21

0.821.320.20

0.19

-0.08-0.10-0.05-0.18-0.15-0.25-0.100.15-0.10-0.480.20-0.550.150.24

0.270.310.320.290.250.200.040.300.250.380.250.400.150.150.150.250.25

0.18

0.15

3.353.482.702.68

3.033.402.512.73

Sep

0.07

0.180.160.21

-1.35-2.640.20

0.18

-0.08-0.10-0.05-0.18-0.15-0.25-0.100.15-0.10-0.480.20-0.550.150.24

0.260.290.300.290.250.200.040.300.250.380.250.400.150.150.150.250.25

0.08

0.14

2.833.392.202.54

Source:BLS,UBSestimates

USEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab8

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