欧洲风能技术论文77_SUCCESSFUL_GRID_AND_MARKET_INTEGRATION_OF_WIND_ENERGY_INTO_THE_SPANISH_ELECTRICAL_SYSTEM_THE_WIND.ppt

1 FEBRARY 2005FEBRARY 2005 SUCCESSFUL GRID AND MARKET SUCCESSFUL GRID AND MARKET INTEGRATION OF WIND ENERGY INTO THE INTEGRATION OF WIND ENERGY INTO THE SPANISH ELECTRICAL SYSTEM: THE “WIND SPANISH ELECTRICAL SYSTEM: THE “WIND TO MARKET“ CASE TO MARKET“ CASE 2 Agenda Introduction Wind Energy Production Forecast; New Regulatory Trends: the Spanish Case Wind Energy Management. Incorporating the Wind Energy in the Power Systems and Wholesale Markets: the W2M Experience in Spain Accuracy of a Wind Energy Forecast Tool: Casandra Energy Services Conclusions 3 With the purpose of promoting wind energy, general regulation for renewable energies was focused on assuring incomes to wind farms: Feed-in tariff or other kinds of premium per energy produced Priority in connecting to the grid Assuring the purchase of all energy produced without any programming or management Wind energy management has been historically neglected; the main business was to assure the IRR of the projects, not taking into account the impact of wind energy in the power systems The sales of wind energy was not performed in an efficient way, causing the The sales of wind energy was not performed in an efficient way, causing the energy systems an over-cost related to unpredictable and uncontrolled energy systems an over-cost related to unpredictable and uncontrolled productionproduction For small amount of wind power generation, the effects of non-controlled production were not too high. As the power installed becomes larger, the impact on power systems significantly increases: Raise of deviation costs Uncontrolled production drops and overloads Ancillary services (reactive power, voltage drops, blackstarts, ) Most of former Legal FrameworksMost of former Legal Frameworks caused ineffective incorporation to caused ineffective incorporation to the electric power systemsthe electric power systems Introduction 4 ContributionsContributions ConsequencesConsequences Fulfilment R.D. 436/2004 (Spain) Grid Integration Electricity Market Integration Orchestrated Sector Growth O&M optimization of Wind Farms Maximization of the energy production value Expected load coverage Obligation of giving Wind Power Production Forecasts in the different remuneration options (Spain) Possibility of greater growth Higher incomes and similarity to Ordinary Regime System Operator & Market Operator Confidence Improved management of the operational Wind Farms Wind Power Production Forecasting becomes a need that creates added value Wind Power Production Forecasting becomes a need that creates added value to the consolidation and development of Wind Energy in Spain. Exportable to the consolidation and development of Wind Energy in Spain. Exportable possibilities to other countries.possibilities to other countries. Therefore, a need for Wind Power Production Forecasting appeared among the Wind Energy sectors main characters, such as Wind Farm owners, ISOs,. This new tool entailed the following contributions and consequences: Introduction 5 1: Sale to distributor 1: Sale to distributor Regulated TariffRegulated Tariff Remuneration based on RET(1) depending on the start-up of the installations: 90% of RET over first 5 years 85% of RET after 6th year over the next 10 years 80% of RET for rest of lifetime (For WF 10MW) 2: Sale to the market2: Sale to the market Producers participate in the market under the rules of the ME and obtain remuneration in accordance to the price fixed by the market. Additionally they are paid a premium of 40% over RET and an incentive 10% of RET. Possible to change scheme once a yearPossible to change scheme once a year Only Wind Farms commissioning before 2004. Final pool price + premium Premium of 23,5 cent/MWh in 2005 and annual revisions according to evolution of RET and annual average market Price (until 2006). 3: Installations covered by 3: Installations covered by RD 2818 (previous RD 2818 (previous regulation from 1998).regulation from 1998). (1) Reference Electrical Tariff. For 2005, RET=73.3/MWh. For 2006 RET = 76.6/MWh Three options for wind energy sales: Wind Energy Management: Incorporating Wind Energy in the Power Markets Spanish Regulatory Framework RD-436-12 of March, 2004 Retribution applies to the entire lifetime of the installation, making certainty a Retribution applies to the entire lifetime of the installation, making certainty a basic elementbasic element 6 (1) Reference Electrical Tariff. For 2005, RET=73.3/MWh. For 2006 RET = 76.6/MWh Wind Energy Incomes in the Spanish Power Market Incomes in the market choice can be up to 30% RET greater than those in the Incomes in the market choice can be up to 30% RET greater than those in the Feed-in tariff choice Feed-in tariff choice 7 Predictions of the meteorological modelPredictions of the meteorological model Wind Farm Data PROMES WIND FARM MODEL GFS MOS Global model data WS, WD, P, T, etc. forecast Reality check Ideal WP forecast Corrected WP forecast Best forecast possibleBest forecast possible Simulation tool of market behaviourSimulation tool of market behaviour Minimization of deviation costs & Minimization of deviation costs & maximizing incomemaximizing income ANCILLARY SERVICES daily Feasible program Clearing price Final Hourly Program Operative Hourly program Domestic Bilateral contracts OTHER TECHNICAL MANAGEMENT PROCESSES MARKET OPERATION SCHEME Basic operative programming DAY-AHEAD MARKET + Bilateral Contracts Cross-region MARKET OPERATORSYSTEM OPERATOR CONGESTION CONSTRAINT RESOLUTION 6 INTRA-DAY MARKETS Understanding wind energy production planning means understanding both prediction and market behaviour, so it may go to the market following market rules. Wind Energy Management: Incorporating Wind Energy in the Power Markets 8 Scope P1 . . . . . Pn P1 . . . . . Pn P1 P2 P3 P4 . . . . . . . . Pn P1 P2 P3 P4 . . . . . . . . Pn PROJECTS PROJECTS PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO IPP Renewables Wind Farms Minihydraulic RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT OTC OMIP POWERNEXT EEX NETA OTC OMIP POWERNEXT EEX NETA EMISSIONS TRADING Emissions Trading CUSTOMERS CUSTOMERS ROCS RECS RECS ROCS MARKET AGENT Market Agent VolumePriceCreditOperational BILLATERAL CONCTRACS BILLATERAL CONCTRACS SUPPLY Supply WHOLESALEWholesale 2004-2005 2005-2007 GREEN ENERGY GREEN ENERGY MARKET VARIABLES FORECASTING : PRODUCTION (CASANDRA, .) PRICE . MARKET VARIABLES FORECASTING : PRODUCTION (CASANDRA, .) PRICE . FIX PRICE REGIME Fix Price regime TSOMO W2M is created with the goal of optimising the remuneration for Renewable Energy installations by managing the energy produced and making the most of all opportunities that arise in potential existing markets. Wind Energy Management: the W2M experience in Spain 9 Optimisation of income cash flows Improving IRR on projects Making new projects more attractive for development and financing Wholesale Market driven energy management Predictable and controlled operation Production programming as part of an integrated management of forecast and participation in the market minimising deviation costs to the whole system. ROI point ROI point of viewof view Grid Grid operation operation point of point of viewview W2Ms business model offers to the electrical system the chance of achieving W2Ms business model offers to the electrical system the chance of achieving an optimal wind energy incorporationan optimal wind energy incorporation and bringing this energy closer to conventional generation, and thus maximizing the renewable energies potential braking barriers from the ROI and the grid operation point of view Wind Energy Management: the W2M experience in Spain 10 Wind Farm Data Production forecast model Day-ahead Market bidding Bidding optimisatio n Bid correction Intra-day market correction Ancillary services Already achieved Under discussion with TSO Every Wind Farm is connected via an Operation Center (COGA) which brings real-time data to the dispatch office (wind measurements, availability, etc.) Production forecast model based on meteorological and statistical parameters defined for each particular wind farm Participation on the day-ahead wholesale market from the w2m dispatch office. W2M offers different products depending on the risk level that the wind farm is willing to take Maximum return from wholesale market through bidding strategy, decreasing the deviation costs of production forecasts Decrease of detected potential deviation from production forecast by participating in the intra-day markets and establishing OTC contracts Future participation in Ancillary services markets (where physically feasible): Emergency procedures, deviation management, node overload Wind Farm Data Production forecast model Day-ahead Market bidding Bidding optimisation Bid correction & intra-day market Ancillary services The W2M process flow is involved in the whole market system Wind Energy Management: the W2M experience in Spain 11 Accuracy of a Wind Energy Forecast Tool: Casandra Energy Services Can a wind energy forecast tool be accurate on the one/two day ahead timeframe? Yes, the Casandra example Casandra Model Scheme 12 Accuracy of a Wind Energy Forecast Tool: Casandra Energy Services W2M is able to assure to its Spanish clients a maximum error for its hourly W2M is able to assure to its Spanish clients a maximum error for its hourly production forecasts of a 20% of the produced energy and improving!production forecasts of a 20% of the produced energy and improving! ResultsResults The errors committed by Casandras Wind Power Production Forecasting Model in terms of deviated energy for individual Wind Farms varies in a range of 27% - 65% depending on different facts such as local wind regimes and orography s complexity, quantity and quality of Wind Farms data available. Wind Power Production Forecasting Model Apolo Model Wind Farm Aggregation Our productions forecasts can be improved in the short-term horizons (1- 8h) by means of our Apolo Model, based on Multi-layer NARX Perceptrons, a type of Neuronal Network. The deviated energy is reduced an additional 5%. When forecasting an aggregation of Wind Farms sited in different locations (arithmetical addition of energy forecast), the deviated energy is reduced thanks to what we call the netting effect. In Spain, aggregating dispersed 750 MW has decreased the deviation from forecast to only 20%, taking into account Spains complex orography. Forecast timeframe 1 72 h 1 8 h Can a wind energy forecast tool be accurate on the one/two day ahead timeframe? Yes, the Casandra example With stochastic modeling and dispersion management, this is ,not arithmetical but intelligent aggregation, the deviation drops to 10% Deviation 27%-65% 21%-60% 20% 10% Defining procedures with the TSO (Red Elctrica de Espaa) with a node-dispatch system will make node management to bring down deviation to only 5%. This procedures are in advanced discussion in Spain 5% TSO procedures + + + 13 Predictability. Wind energy is unpredictable, causing deviation costs to the system ISO barrier Creation of a wind forecasting tool Solution Energy forecasting errors too highWind energy aggregation for reducing errors System costs related to wind energy too highParticipation on wholesale markets and development of operational dispatch center Different treatment to wind energy than to conventional facilities Participation in ancillary services markets Technical grid impact: voltage drops, reactive power, emergencies Research on voltage drops: active crowbar solution. TSO procedures. Node dispatch system The growth of wind energy depends on its integration with the grid and on ISO decision making. ISO drives the growth rate of wind power while becoming closer to ISO drives the growth rate of wind power while becoming closer to conventional power, as it has been observed in the Spanish Power Systemconventional power, as it has been observed in the Spanish Power System Conclusions (I) 14 The wind energy industry is in a position to incorporate itself in the electrical The wind energy industry is in a position to incorporate itself in the electrical system in an efficient way and the only limiting factor is the wind resource system in an efficient way and the only limiting factor is the wind resource availableavailable The development of the wind energy sector requires the incorporation of The development of the wind energy sector requires the incorporation of renewable energies in the electrical system and the opt