毕业论文-轨道交通对沿线房地产价格影响的研究.doc

毕业论文=轨道交通对沿线房地产价格影响的研究 以广州地铁五号线为例姓名：学号：导师：专业：工程管理学院：工商管理学院摘 要摘 要近年来，随着城市轨道交通建设的日益加快，沿线房地产价格所受的影响也日渐明显。在土地资源日益稀缺和广州经济快速发展的情况下，进行轨道交通和房地产价格影响方面的研究和探讨，对于保持轨道交通建设的可持续发展、促进轨道交通与房地产开发的协调发展具有十分重要的现实意义。为了分析轨道交通对沿线房地产价格的影响程度及规律，以广州地铁五号线为例，将五号线沿线经过的地区按越秀、荔湾、天河和黄埔划分分为4个的区域，分别收集每个区域内距离地铁站点远近距离的房产价格，然后根据数据建立数学模型，总结出了沿线房地产的价格分布规律。结果表明，在发展水平较高且房屋价格较高的核心区域，该区域内交通基础设施发达，居民的出行快速便捷，轨道交通对房地产价格的影响较弱。而在大多数区域，轨道交通对沿线房地产价格影响较大，房地产越靠近轨道站点其价格越高，并且越远离城市核心区轨道交通对房价的影响也越大。关键词：轨道交通；房地产价格；影响因素- 1 -轨道交通对沿线房地产价格影响的研究abstractin recent years, with the quickening of the urban rail transit construction, real estate prices along the impact is increasingly obvious. in increasingly scarce land resources under the condition of rapid economic development, guangzhou rail transit and real estate price the effects of research and discussion, to keep the sustainable development of rail transit construction, promote the coordinated development of rail transit and real estate development has very important practical significance. to analyze the impact of rail transit on real estate prices along the degree and the law of guangzhou metro line 5, for example, after the regions along the line will be five by yuexiu, liwan, tianhe and huangpu division is divided into four areas, respectively, collection of subway stations distance distance in the area of each property prices, and then according to the data to establish mathematical model of the real estate prices along the distribution were summarized. results show that the higher level of development and housing prices higher core area, convenient traffic facilities in the area, the residents travel fast and convenient, rail transit impact on real estate prices are weaker. in most areas, along the rail transit on real estate prices, real estate near the rail site prices higher and higher, and that the more far away from the urban core of rail transit impact on prices.keywords:rail transit, real estate price, influencing factor第1章 绪论1.1 轨道交通城市轨道交通（rail transit）是指具有运量大、速度快、安全、准点、保护环境、节约能源和用地等特点的交通方式，简称”轨交“，包括地铁、轻轨、快轨、有轨电车等。随着城市的发展，世界各国普遍认识到：解决城市的交通问题的根本出路在于优先发展以轨道交通为骨干的城市公共交通系统。城市轨道交通是城市公共交通的主干线，客流运送的大动脉，是城市的生命线工程。建成运营后，将直接关系到城市居民的出行、工作、购物和生活。城市轨道交通低能耗、少污染的“绿色交通”，是解决“城市病”的一把金钥匙，对于实现城市的可持续发展具有非常重要的意义。城市轨道交通是城市建设史上最大的公益性基础设施，对城市的全局和发展模式将产生深远的影响。为了建设生态城市，应把摊大饼式的城市发展模式改变为伸开的手掌形模式，而手掌状城市发展的骨架就是城市轨道交通。城市轨道交通的建设可以带动城市沿轨道交通廊道的发展，促进城市繁荣，形成郊区卫星城和多个副部中心，从而缓解城市中心人口密集、住房紧张、绿化面积小、空气污染严重等城市通病。城市轨道交通的建设与发展有利于提高市民出行的效率，节省时间，改善生活质量。国际知名的大都市由于轨道交通事业十分发达方便，人们出行很少乘私人车辆，主要依靠地铁轻轨等轨道交通，故城市交通秩序井然，市民出行方便、省时。1.2 房地产价格及其影响因素1.2.1 房地产价格简介房地产价格是指建筑物连同其占用土地的价格，即房地产价格：土地价格+建筑物价格，是房地产经济运行和资源配置最重要的调节机制。房地产价格是一个复杂的经济范畴，既包括土地的价格，又包括房屋建筑物的价格，房与地是不可分割的统一体，房地产价格是这个统一物的价格。房屋建筑物是人类劳动的结晶，具有价值，这与一般商品价值的形成是相同的。但是土地是一种特殊商品，却不完全是劳动产品，一方面，原始土地是自然界的产物，并不包含人类劳动在里面，其所以具有价格是因为土地垄断引起的地租的资本化。1.2.2 房地产价格影响因素影响房地产价格的一般因素：（1）社会因素：包括人口状况、社会稳定状况、城市化和房地产投机等；（2）经济因素：包括国民经济水平和发展趋势、财政收支及金融环境、税负等；（3）政治因素：土地制度及政策、房地产价格政策、土地出让方式、出让期限、行政级别及隶属变更等；（4）其他因素：包括心理因素、国际因素和特殊因素。影响房地产价格的个别因素：（1）影响土地价格的个别因素：包括位置、面积、地形地势、地质、水文、形状、气候、临街状况、土地利用限制状况、土地产权权属状况和建筑物与土地的组合状况等；（2）影响建筑物价格的个别因素：包括建筑构造、房屋装修、房屋设备及附属设施、地段、层次、朝向、房屋的损耗和完好程度、规模及高度和用途等 谢经荣,吕萍,乔志敏.房地产经济学m.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013.。虽然房地产价格受到诸多因素的影响，但这些因素相互之间是密切相关的，因而严格区分他们各自对房地产价格产生的影响具有一定的难度。1.3 国内外相关研究上世纪70年代，已经有外国学者研究了公共交通对房屋价格影响的相关问题。他们不仅运用定性的方法，还注重使用多种数学模型来进行定量的研究。比较著名的是landis、gervero和webber等学者在加利福尼亚州的旧金山海湾地区轨道交通系统（bart）开通运营初期的研究 landis j,gervero r,webber m. twenty years of the bay area rapid transit system:land use and development impactj.transportation research part a :policy and practice,1997,31(4):309-333，他们以bart的一个站为研究对象，得出距轨道交通400m处的房租上升了10%15%的结论。欧洲学者koutsopaulos koutsopaulos k c the impact of mass transit on residential property values1977(04)认为公共交通对住宅价格的一个主要表现为新的交通线路能够为人们的出行提供更多选择，减少出行成本。英国教授john henneberry对1995年建成的的英国谢菲尔德轻轨系统进行了跟踪研究，发现在轻轨建设期间，附近房屋的价格不升反降，其原因是轻轨建设中带来了噪声、灰尘等负面影响，轨道建成后，负面影响消失 professor john henneberry. professor of property development studiesm1998。在国内，针对轨道交通对房地产价格的研究也有，但数量不多，针对性不强，主要原因是国内轨道交通建设起步晚，可以定量研究影响系数的数学模型建立困难。清华大学何剑华使用特征价格模型分析了北京地铁13号线对周边房屋价格的影响：除去其他因素，随着13号线的施工和运营，在站周边一公里半径范围内，住宅单价和总价分别上升了780元/平米和7800元/平米，并且实证分析表明，轨道通车动工、前后前后对周边住宅的价格影响最大 何剑华.用hedonic模型研究北京地铁13号线对住宅价格的效应d,北京：清华大学，2004。从交通与土地利用的现状入手，分析了广州市交通与土地利用的关系，得出广州轨道交通的建设对沿线土地的升值产生了巨大的影响的结论 曹小曙，杨帆，阎小培. 广州城市交通与土地利用研究j.经济地理，2000（3）：73.。随着城市的发展，陆续有学者开始关注北京、上海、广州等城市地铁项目对沿线住宅价格的影响。第2章 轨道交通对沿线房产价格影响实例分析2.1 广州市轨道交通概况截至2015年9月，广州市轨道交通线网构架由三级网络七条线组成，总长206.5km。在这7条线中，1、2、3号线为基本骨架线网，主要组成快速轨道交通网的核心层；全市线网密度采用0.36km/km2；市中心线网密度采用1.2km/km2。全线网共设车站276座，其中换乘站52座。线网建设的时序根据城市客流发展及出行需求、财政实力、工程实施计划相结合。广州市轨道交通线网规划示意图见图2-1所示：图2-1 广州市轨道交通线网规划示意图2.2 广州地铁五号线对沿线房地产价格的影响2.2.1 资料来源及数据处理广州地铁五号线西起荔湾滘口，东至广州经济技术开发区的黄埔客运港，全长约42.8公里，共设29座车站。其中广州地铁五号线一期（滘口文冲）已于2009年12月28日14：00全线开通，初期间隔为5分钟。 一期于2009年12月28日通车，共24个车站，分别是：滘口、坦尾、中山八、西场、西村、广州火车站、小北、淘金、区庄、动物园、杨箕、五羊邨、珠江新城、猎德、潭村、员村、科韵路、车陂南、东圃、三溪、鱼珠、大沙地、大沙东及文冲。一期线路全长31.9km，24个车站，其中滘口和坦尾是高架车站，其余为地下车站；二期有5个车站，分别为为文冲、沙埔、庙头、夏园及黄埔客运港，二期全长11km，规划在20152020年落实，如图2-1所示：图2-1 广州市地铁五号线站点信息本文选择地铁五号线附近不同距离的江源半岛花园、逸彩新世界、珠江都荟和朱美拉公寓等30个楼盘作为调查样本，每个样本相关数据均来源于网易房产广州站、满堂红地产网广州地区和房天下等网站。信息内容包括楼盘位置、装修情况、售价情况等。因为地铁五号线跨越荔湾、越秀、天河和黄埔四个区区域，这四个区域的房价又有所区别，难以直接比较轨道交通对房地产价格的影响。考虑到自身的能力和时间允许，本文采用一种比较简单直观的方法，来建立轨道交通对房价影响的模型。即将地铁五号线按四个不同的区域划分为四段，获得每个区域内的房地产平均价格；然后再每个区域内比较房地产价格对距离轨道交通远近的关系。按照上述方法将地图上的楼盘和城市轨道交通站点的位置信息标记出来，计算出每个楼盘到最近轨道站点之间的距离，然后运用excel将计算的数据进行统计分析。2.2.2 区域房屋均价与轨道交通沿线房屋价格因为纸张有限，只列举广州地铁五号线沿线部分楼盘的价格，如表2-1所示：表格 2-1 广州地铁五号线沿线部分楼盘价格楼盘名称房地产价格（元/平方）江源半岛花园（天河）25000逸彩新世界（荔湾）22000珠江都荟（天河）28000 朱美拉公寓（天河）3000 富力国际公馆（天河）28000 中环国际公寓（越秀）25000 东山一品（越秀）22000富力公园28（天河）32000岭南海湾（荔湾）15000瑞安花园（荔湾）10000东港花园（黄埔）10500阳光假日园（天河）16000 金悦东山国际公馆（越秀）18000由于城市轨道交通对周边地区的影响符合廊道效应，因此选取广州市轨道交通沿线2000m区域作为研究范围，并分别计算处于越秀、荔湾、天河和黄埔四个区域沿线的房产均价，见表 2-2：距最近站点距离（米）房产均价（元/平方米）荔湾区越秀区天河区黄埔区0500260003350028000170005001000213003000030000140001000150019500270002700010000150020001760026500265008000表 2-2 地铁五号线沿线不同区域房屋均价为了方便比较，还分别计算了出每个区域内的平均房价，如下表2-3：荔湾区越秀区天河区黄埔区住宅平均价格(元/平方米)22682303852803314575表2-3 荔湾、越秀、天河、黄埔各区域房屋均价第三章 轨道交通对沿线房地产价格的影响3.1 轨道交通沿线房地产价格特征的一般规律在第一次对所得的数据分析时，发现并不存在明显的变化关系，对具体的楼盘分析后发现，有个别的距离轨道交通较远的房产价格却高得离谱。仔细对这几个楼盘进行研究后发现，这几处的楼盘的市场地位为超豪华住宅，而且该地区具有独特的区位优势和经济文化背景，因此，房价主要受到区域文化、区位条件、住宅环境等其他因素的影响。而且该区域内交通基础设施发达，人们可供选择出行方式多样，所以轨道交通对房价的影响很弱。所以，将个别的楼盘删除后重新进行分析。对重新所得的数据统计分析结果表明：在荔湾、越秀、天河和黄埔四个不同的区域内，轨道沿线房产的均价随离开轨道距离的增加而减小。这表明，房产价格与到轨道交通的距离具有一定的相关性。3.2 轨道交通对沿线房地产价格影响的数学模型基于城市轨道交通沿线房价分布的特征，分别对四个区域内的房价进行趋势线模拟，如下图3-1所示：图3-1 荔湾、越秀、天河、黄埔房价走势图越秀区：y = -675x2 + 2965x + 26175天河区：y = 750x2 - 6150x + 39000荔湾区：y = 700x2 - 6200x + 31350黄埔区：y = 250x2 - 4350x + 21250四个区域的模拟趋势线均为二次多项式，除去发展水平较高的天河区，其他区域的沿线房产显示出距离轨道站点越远，房价越低的特征。综合越秀、荔湾、天河和黄埔四个区域的情况，可以将广州市地铁五号线沿线房价归纳为如下公式：式中y指沿线房价，x指房产到最近轨道站点的距离，x(0,2000。结 论城市轨道交通的建设提高了沿线区域的可达性，越来越多的人选择这种快速便捷的交通方式，因而也对沿线房地产价格产生了一定的影响。具体表现为：距离轨道站点越近的房产，轨道交通对其价格的提升作用越明显；而距离轨道交通越远，房价就越低；并且越远离城市的核心区，轨道交通对房价的影响程度就越大。随着城市轨道交通建设的蓬勃发展，可以预见城市轨道交通对沿线房价的影响将更为显著，房地产的价格也会随之呈现出新的格局。需要指出的是，广州是的地铁处在不断地建设发展当中，本次研究只针对已建成的地铁沿线房地产价格变化情况，而对于规划中或者在建过程中的地铁并未做详细研究，但可以推测可能会有会有相似的结论。同时，在城市的发展过程中，将城市的轨道交通与房地产开发相关活动当成一个整理来考虑，对它们的规划设计和建设综合起来，可以获得更大的经济社会效益。由此可见，城市轨道交通对房地产价格的影响是一项复杂、长期并且具有挑战性的工作，还有许多问题值得我们今后更加深入的研究。- 15 -参考文献请删除以下内容，o(_)o谢谢！the origin of taxation in the united states can be traced to the time when the colonists were heavily taxed by great britain on everything from tea to legal and business documents that were required by the stamp tax. the colonists disdain for this taxation without representation (so-called because the colonies had no voice in the establishment of the taxes) gave rise to revolts such as the boston tea party. however, even after the revolutionary war and the adoption of the u.s. constitution, the main source of revenue for the newly created states was money received from customs and excise taxes on items such as carriages, sugar, whiskey, and snuff. income tax first appeared in the united states in 1862, during the civil war. at that time only about one percent of the population was required to pay the tax. a flat-rate income tax was imposed in 1867. the income tax was repealed in its entirety in 1872. income tax was a rallying point for the populist party in 1892, and had enough support two years later that congress passed the income tax act of 1894. the tax at that time was two percent on individual incomes in excess of $4,000, which meant that it reached only the wealthiest members of the population. the supreme court struck down the tax, holding that it violated the constitutional requirement that direct taxes be apportioned among the states by population (pollock v. farmers loan & trust, 158 u.s. 601, 15 s. ct. 912, 39 l. ed. 1108 1895). after many years of debate and compromise, the sixteenth amendment to the constitution was ratified in 1913, providing congress with the power to lay and collect taxes on income without apportionment among the states. the objectives of the income tax were the equitable distribution of the tax burden and the raising of revenue. since 1913 the u.s. income tax system has become very complex. in 1913 the income tax laws were contained in eighteen pages of legislation; the explanation of the tax reform act of 1986 was more than thirteen hundred pages long (pub. l. 99-514, oct. 22, 1986, 100 stat. 2085). commerce clearing house, a publisher of tax information, released a version of the internal revenue code in the early 1990s that was four times thicker than its version in 1953. changes to the tax laws often reflect the times. the flat tax of 1913 was later replaced with a graduated tax. after the united states entered world war i, the war revenue act of 1917 imposed a maximum tax rate for individuals of 67 percent, compared with a rate of 13 percent in 1916. in 1924 secretary of the treasury andrew w. mellon, speaking to congress about the high level of taxation, stated, the present system is a failure. it was an emergency measure, adopted under the pressure of war necessity and not to be counted upon as a permanent part of our revenue structure. the high rates put pressure on taxpayers to reduce their taxable income, tend to destroy individual initiative and enterprise, and seriously impede the development of productive business. ways will always be found to avoid taxes so destructive in their nature, and the only way to save the situation is to put the taxes on a reasonable basis that will permit business to go on and industry to develop. consequently, the revenue act of 1924 reduced the maximum individual tax rate to 43 percent (revenue acts, june 2, 1924, ch. 234, 43 stat. 253). in 1926 the rate was further reduced to 25 percent. the revenue act of 1932 was the first tax law passed during the great depression (revenue acts, june 6, 1932, ch. 209, 47 stat. 169). it increased the individual maximum rate from 25 to 63 percent, and reduced personal exemptions from $1,500 to $1,000 for single persons, and from $3,500 to $2,500 for married couples. the national industrial recovery act of 1933 (nira), part of president franklin d. roosevelts new deal, imposed a five percent excise tax on dividend receipts, imposed a capital stock tax and an excess profits tax, and suspended all deductions for losses (june 16, 1933, ch. 90, 48 stat. 195). the repeal in 1933 of the eighteenth amendment, which had prohibited the manufacture and sale of alcohol, brought in an estimated $90 million in new liquor taxes in 1934. the social security act of 1935 provided for a wage tax, half to be paid by the employee and half by the employer, to establish a federal retirement fund (old age pension act, aug. 14, 1935, ch. 531, 49 stat. 620). the wealth tax act, also known as the revenue act of 1935, increased the maximum tax rate to 79 percent, the revenue acts of 1940 and 1941 increased it to 81 percent, the revenue act of 1942 raised it to 88 percent, and the individual income tax act of 1944 raised the individual maximum rate to 94 percent. the post-world war ii revenue act of 1945 reduced the individual maximum tax from 94 percent to 91 percent. the revenue act of 1950, during the korean war, reduced it to 84.4 percent, but it was raised the next year to 92 percent (revenue act of 1950, sept. 23, 1950, ch. 994, stat. 906). it remained at this level until 1964, when it was reduced to 70 percent. the revenue act of 1954 revised the internal revenue code of 1939, making major changes that were beneficial to the taxpayer, including providing for child care deductions (later changed to credits), an increase in the charitable contribution limit, a tax credit against taxable retirement income, employee deductions for business expenses, and liberalized depreciation deductions. from 1954 to 1962, the internal revenue code was amended by 183 separate acts. in 1974 the employee retirement income security act (erisa) created protections for employees whose employers promised specified pensions or other retirement contributions (pub. l. no. 93-406, sept. 2, 1974, 88 stat. 829). erisa required that to be tax deductible, the employers plan contribution must meet certain minimum standards as to employee participation and vesting and employer funding. erisa also approved the use of individual retirement accounts (iras) to encourage tax-deferred retirement savings by individuals. the economic recovery tax act of 1981 (erta) provided the largest tax cut up to that time, reducing the maximum individual rate from 70 percent to 50 percent (pub. l. no. 97-34, aug. 13, 1981, 95 stat. 172). the most sweeping tax changes since world war ii were enacted in the tax reform act of 1986. this bill was signed into law by president ronald reagan and was designed to equalize the tax treatment of various assets, eliminate tax shelters, and lower marginal rates. conservatives wanted the act to provide a single, low tax rate that could be applied to everyone. although this single, flat rate was not included in the final bill, tax rates were reduced to 15 percent on the first $17,850 of income for singles and $29,750 for married couples, and set at 28 to 33 percent on remaining income. many deductions were repealed, such as a deduction available to two-income married couples that had been used to avoid the marriage penalty (a greater tax liability incurred when two persons filed their income tax return as a married couple rather than as individuals). although the personal exemption exclusion was increased, an exemption for elderly and blind persons who itemize deductions was repealed. in addition, a special capital gains rate was repealed, as was an investment tax credit that had been introduced in 1962 by president john f. kennedy. the omnibus budget reconciliation act of 1993, the first budget and tax act enacted during the clinton administration, was vigorously debated, and passed with only the minimum number of necessary votes. this law provided for income tax rates of 15, 28, 31, 36, and 39.6 percent on varying levels of income and for the taxation of social security income if the taxpayer receives other income over a certain level. in 2001 congress enacted a major income tax cut at the urging of president george w. bush. over the course of 11 years the law reduces marginal income tax rates across all levels of income. the 36 percent rate will be lowered to 33 percent, the 31 percent rate to 28 percent, the 28 percent rate to 25 percent. in addition, a new bottom 10 percent rate was created. since the early 1980s, a flat-rate tax system rather than the graduated bracketed method has been proposed. (the graduated bracketed method is the one that has been used since graduated taxes were introduced: the percentage of tax differs based on the amount of taxable income.) the flat-rate system would impose one rate, such as 20 percent, on all income and would eliminate special deductions, credits, and exclusions. despite firm support by some, the flat-rate tax has not been adopted in the united states. regardless of the changes made by legislators since 1913, the basic formula for computing the amount of tax owed has remained basically the