竹柳速生林计划可行性分析.docxVIP

农教竹柳速生林计划可行性分析 一、论述 2007年2011年，国家每年森林采伐限额为2.48亿立方米。而国内每年森林蓄积消耗总需求量已达5.5亿立方米，每年缺口2亿立方米，2010年将扩大到3亿立方米。我国森林资源状况归纳起来可以用16个字概括：总量不足、资源匮乏、无林可采、生态失衡，供求失衡，国家急需发展人造丰产速生林，但目前各地发展人造丰产速生林受到土地、品种等多因素影响，发展面积远不够社会需求，而竹柳是刚兴起的人造丰产速生林树种,因速生、丰产、抗盐碱、适应性强、木质材料好，栽培地域广,栽培效益高等特性,越来越受到人们的关注,下面对营造10万亩竹柳人造丰产速生林可行性进行分析: 二、营造农教竹柳速生林社会必需性 1、中国森林当前状况： 我国国土面积960万平方公里（约143.9928亿亩），约占世界总量的7，人口达13亿，约占世界的22，而森林面积仅占世界总量的4.6。森林总面积15894.1万公顷，森林覆盖率16.55，相当于世界森林覆盖率（27）的61.3，排世界第142位。森林蓄积量为112.7亿立方米，林木蓄积量不足世界总量的3。2006年2010年，国家每年森林采伐限额为2.48亿立方米，而国内每年森林蓄积消耗总需求量已达5.5亿立方米，每年缺口2亿立方米，2010年将扩大到3亿立方米。加上还有08年雪灾对我国南方林木进一步造成的影响，我国森林资源状况归纳起来可以用16个字概括：总量不足、资源匮乏、无林可采、生态失衡，供求失衡。 2、世界林木当前状况： 林木是一种能源资源,在一定程度上也是一种稀缺资源，世界整体林木资源年产出远赶不上人类发展需求，全球森林面积39.52亿公顷，占陆地面积（不含内陆水域）的30.3%，人均森林面积0.62公顷，原生林占30%，人工林不足5。用于木质和非木质产品生产的森林资源只有三分之一，11%指定用于生物多样性保护，且每年全球近百分之四的森林受到各种灾害的影响。而世界各国森林面积分布不均衡，再加上林木原料的培养生产本身也需要很长的周期、世界各国环保意识的加强、各国开展“天然林保护工程”，严格限制对国内森林的采伐，俄罗斯等国限制原木出口，印尼等国打击木材走私，运输成本的增加等因素更直接加大这种供需矛盾。 3、目前我国木材消费情况 中国已成为世界上仅次于美国的第二大纸品消费国，各类纸和纸制品消费量占世界消费总量的14%；纸业生产每年将有1000万吨纸浆需求缺口，木材消费量达到了3.37亿立方米，中国木材进口量每年以16%的速度增加，其中以大径级的木材和阔叶林资源尤其稀缺，据统计，至2008年底，我国的中、高密度纤维板年设计能力将达到3396.85万立方米，年生产能力超过4000万立方米，所需木材将超过6000万立方米，林木原料短缺以及木材供不应求的市场格局在短期内仍不会改变。因此，总量巨大的市场需求将带动木材成本价格不断上涨，数据显示，目前国内生活用纸涨价约10%左右，文化用纸涨价30%，包装纸涨价30%左右。其中新闻纸从2008年1月的4850元/吨暴涨至3月的5450元/吨，最近甚至已涨到6500元/吨。比2008年初涨了近2000元/吨。相当每吨每月涨200元，涨幅创5年最猛纪录，到14左右，而其他种类如箱板纸、书写纸等价格，上涨幅度也都超过10%。从2008年3月10日起，南京市场上的现代快报、扬子晚报、金陵晚报和南京晨报4份都市报零售价集体提高40%至0.7元/份，南方都市报自2007年11月1日起，南方都市报就将其深圳市场的零售价从每份1元上调至2元，成为全国最贵的都市报；财经杂志从2007年的10元提价到今年的15元，三联生活周刊从去年的8元提到了今年的10元；改版的财富时报从以前的2元提高到现在的5元，经济观察报也从2007年的2元提高到现在的3元，2007年8元以下的杂志基本都跃升到10元方阵。 4、国际森林碳汇市场形成发展状况： 碳汇一般是指从空气中清除二氧化碳的过程、活动、机制。森林碳汇是指森林植物吸收大气中的二氧化碳并将其固定在植被或土壤中，从而减少该气体在大气中的浓度。森林是陆地生态系统中最大的碳库，在降低大气中温室气体浓度、减缓全球气候变暖中，具有十分重要的独特作用。 2005年2月16日正式生效的京都议定书规定：作为碳源的国家或地区必须通过减排、限排的方式以减少向大气中排放co2的量。京都议定书还规定了联合履约、排放贸易的机制，作为碳源的国家或地区向作为碳汇的国家或地区支付二氧化碳排放的补偿费，借此达到向大气中减排和限排二氧化碳的目的。 目前，由发达国家出资到发展中国家购买二氧化碳等温室气体额外减排量的“碳汇交易”机制已经在我国逐步形成，由于森林、湿地等可以快速、大量地吸收、汇聚和储存二氧化碳，林业资产的co2负排放，未来企业有机会通过出售排放权就可以直接获得投资收益。目前a股上市公司中真正拥有大量林业资源的公司，未来就存在可能成为“碳汇交易”的赢家。因此林业资源正是典型的cdm概念，按芝加哥气候交易所的碳价格是10美元/吨，光栽培发展人工森林出售排放权就可以获得不菲的经济效益。 5、我国发展人造森林面临的问题 中国急需大力发展人造丰产速生林，满足社会对木材的需求，但涉及到栽培耕地问题，党的十七届三中全会通过了中共中央关于推进农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定，出台了一系列健全严格规范农村土地管理制度的政策措施，坚持最严格的耕地保护制度，层层落实责任，坚决守住十八亿亩耕地红线，要把保护基本农田作为“一条不可逾越的红线”，如何正确协调处理双方关系，解决产粮和造林的问题成了国家、人民面前一道难题，另一方面我国河流湖泊众多，海岸线长，荒滩、滩涂、湿地占有很大的面积（湿地面积约6594万公顷(不包括江河、池塘等)，盐碱地9913万公顷）在荒废，需要国家投入大量资金去恢复生态。 如有一个能在盐碱、荒滩、滩涂、湿地上栽培的人造丰产速生林树种，在这些地段上栽培种植，既能解决盐碱、荒滩、滩涂、湿地生态的生态恢复，又能产生高额的经济回报；既能满足社会对木材的需求，又能保住耕地不受侵占，可解决上述一系列问题。目前社会上有许多丰产速生林树种，如桉树，栽培不仅不能耐盐碱，还受温度限制，且破坏生态，速声杨栽培范围比较广，但整体耐盐碱性弱，且不耐涝，其它品种在此地段栽培也有不同的不适应性，速生柳，柽柳等一些品种能栽，但不成材，产生的经济效益低，或只起生态效益，现市场上的人造丰产速生林新树种-竹柳，生长速度快、耐涝、耐寒、耐旱、耐盐碱，在盐碱、荒滩、滩涂、湿地上大力发展竹柳丰产速生林，符合国情，满足社会各种需求，成为社会必需，将产生巨大的经济效益和生态效益。 三、竹柳人造丰产速生林的可行性: 1、营造竹柳速生林树种的可行性 竹柳是利用多元遗传种质材料通过高新技术复合杂交的柳树新品种，具备柳树所有优良特性，且比其它柳树新品种更具有生长快、抗性强、材质好的特征，是一个十分难得的优质速生用材林树种，现将其很多优良特点总结如下： a、竹柳具有显著的的速生特性和很高的经济效益：从小苗生长一个月以后，明显出现不断加速的快速生长；与一般速生柳和普通柳树相比，竹柳生长更快，生物量大，出材产量高,在立地条件适宜，水、肥等管理条件好的情况时，1年生树生长高达36米，地径3公分以上。人工营造周期短，造林不蹲苗，46年即可进行超短期轮伐或齐伐，5年左右采伐时单株高度可达15米以上，且正材比例高，胸径20公分以上，材积0.3立方米左右，与当今世界生长最快的杨树树种之一2025速生杨的芽变品种中华红叶杨同等规格苗木在同等栽培管理条件下对做对比观察，3个月后，竹柳平均生长高度高于红叶杨1/3左右，将近1米。 b、竹柳具有高密度种植特性和高产的基础：竹柳的顶端高，生长优势强，侧枝较少，且分枝夹角小，枝条全部向上生长，树冠不像普通柳树，冠窄小的像钻天柳(朝鲜柳)和高大窄冠杨树的树冠因此，栽种时每亩栽培苗株数多，土地利用率高，单位面积经济效益也自然高营造人工竹柳林,也打破了株行距概念。种植竹柳的经济效益至少是栽培其它速生品种的5倍以上，如速生杨大径材标准种植模式为36株/亩，竹柳大径标准种植模式300株/亩，速生杨中径材标准种植模式为48株/亩，竹柳中径材标准种植模式为400株/亩；超短期轮伐种植，每亩可种2500株（具体栽培因地制宜，根据土壤肥力，水分条件，后期管理等适当增减）。 c、竹柳喜水耐湿抗盐碱特性强，适应性强：用山东沿海，大庆的盐碱土及做盐碱胁迫栽培试验结果显示：竹柳在ph值8.08.5和含盐量高达14000ppm的情况下，能正常生长若在有灌溉条件或降雨较好的地区；或在江河湖泊滩涂等地大面积种植竹柳将更具优势。竹柳的栽培适应性特强，几乎凡是能栽种普通柳树的地方都能很好的生长竹柳抗寒，抗旱，抗淹，抗盐碱碱，且栽培成活率高在能浇灌水的地方一年四季随时可以定植不同规格的苗木进行栽培科学方法栽植一般成活率均在90%以上既便是在当年月份以前去栽植20公分高的幼苗，到当年秋季都能生长到2米高以上。 d、竹柳用途广泛：木材品质好，竹柳木材抗压、抗弯、抗拉、抗剪等能力比野生的桦木和杨树更好，是制造胶合板、纸张和优质框架的上等材料，且木质细密均匀，不空心、不黑心，从边到心色度洁白，未漂白前，自然白度达5060%，且木材得浆率高（9095%），纤维柔软，高织力强，因而所产的木浆质量高，且原料耗损低，用碱量低（仅为4%），加工温度低，压力低，既降低了生产成本，也大大减少了污染负荷。总之竹柳非常适应大量用于林业生物质能源林基地建设，竹柳树种营造人造丰产速生林可行性非常高。 四、农教竹柳速生林投资预算(按前6年计算) 1、土地费用:按照农林地每亩地30元计算,10万亩地6年使用费用为:10万亩*30元/亩=300万元，在盐碱、荒滩、滩涂、湿地上种植，土地租赁费用降低，但增加当年整地成本。 2、土地整理费用:大块平整土地主要是旋耕费用；坡地，不规则的林地主要是整理树穴费用，每亩预计30元,10万亩地整理费用为10万亩*30元/亩=300万。 3、按每亩地种植300株：10万亩地栽培为3，000万株,按栽培竹柳种苗和竹柳种条插段市场平均价3元计算,10万亩地投入竹柳种苗成本=9，000万元。 4、竹柳种苗栽培人工成本:每个工日预计栽培2,000株,3,000万株竹柳栽培需要15,000工日,每个工日按80元薪酬计算,共需工资:15,000*80=120万x6期=720万。 5、营造竹柳人造丰产速生林每年平均施肥3次：对氮肥、钾肥和钙肥的需求较一般树种要高，大面积营造竹柳人造丰产速生林施肥主要以碳铵、过磷酸钙等廉价无机肥为主，速生期多施尿素，后期多施含钾高的肥料，每亩地每年肥料费用约150元，10万亩地6年需要投入成本：100，000x150x6=9，000万。 6、每亩地每年需要浇灌4次左右：视天气情况而定，南方地区年平均降雨量大于1000毫米，只需要浇灌一次定植水，其它干旱地区，浇灌也只需要电费或油费，平均费用20元左右，10万亩地6年费用为100，000x20x6=1，200万。 7、竹柳栽培密度大：前2年需要除草，后期植株长大，对杂草起抑制作用，形成不了草害，不除或清理出树盘即可，前两年每年每亩地除草2-3次，使用除草剂成本每亩约10元，10万亩地3年投入约：100，000x10x3=300万。 8、竹柳每年修剪等其他管护工作：平均每亩地每年费用50元左右，10万亩地6年费用为100，000x50x6=3，000万。按最长生长年限6年成材计算，预计营造10万亩人造竹柳丰产速生林总投资25,320万；每亩地每年平均投入2,532元/6=422元。每亩每年收益约6000元以上。 五、种植2000亩农教竹柳速生林效益分析 竹柳按最长生长年限6年计算，每棵树可产出0.5立方米左右木材，按0.25立方米计算，亩产300株竹柳可出木材：0.25300100，000=750万立方米，按2008年上半年杂木市场行情1000元计算（现在市场因国际金融危机有所波动，但不代表整体行情，具体价格以6年后市场行情为准）可产生效益：750万1000元=75亿，营造10万亩竹柳人造丰产速生林6年产生纯收益75亿；每亩地每年可产生纯效益为：75亿/6/100，000=1.25万元；投资效益比为：0.068125万元：1.27万元=1：18，收益回报非常高，这只是栽培销售木材的初步价值，若栽培模式采取间作，及进行各种加工，对木材产品进行升值，经济回报率会更高。 目前营造人造丰产速生林还有一种碳汇收益，碳汇收益是指由发达国家出资到发展中国家购买二氧化碳等温室气体额外减排量的“碳汇交易”，由于森林、湿地等可以快速、大量地吸收、汇聚和储存二氧化碳，林业资产的co2负排放，未来企业建造丰产速生林就有机会通过出售排放权就可以直接获得投资收益。在竹柳碳汇收益方面：有关资料表明人工林每生长1立方米约吸收1.83吨二氧化碳，释放1.62吨氧气，每立方米木材折合含碳量约0.25吨。竹柳由于其树冠窄小，种植密度比现在一般的速生树种要大得多，以收获大径材的模式计算，每亩地可种植300株，3年左右就可枝繁叶茂，5-6年采伐时单株高度可达15米以上，胸径达20公分左右时，材积0.3立方米左右，一亩地可产近90立方米，含碳量900.25=22.5吨。按照芝加哥气候交易所的碳价格是10美元/吨，每亩竹柳碳汇收益有225美元，约合人民币1575元(计算以当天汇率为准)。如果营造.亩地竹柳丰产林，在不砍伐的情况下就能获得2250万美元的碳汇收益，以上可见投资发展竹柳人造森林的可行性，经济效益生态效益双丰收。 六、结论 中国社会发展，必须大力发展人造丰产速生林，但中国国情是人口多，耕地少，必须坚决守住十八亿亩耕地红线，如何满足社会发展又不跨越十八亿亩耕地红线，只有在中国荒滩、滩涂、湿地上做文章，投资发展竹柳人造丰产速生林就是一个很好的项目，虽然当前由美国次贷危机引发的国际性金融危机使国际经济和金融面临严峻挑战，也给我国经济社会发展和人们的生产生活带来较大压力，面对当前形势，许多部门、企业和个人投资相当谨慎，大多数投资者把投资安全性放在首位，怎样投资才能获得高效益，少风险，是人们不得不认真考虑的问题。分析国内主要大的行业，林业投资有很多优势的，首先，林业资产是有形的，低风险的资产类型，因收入延期带来利益，并具备多种利用潜力，所以林业投资具有保值增值性，能够防止通货膨胀；其次，林业投资对资金流动性要求低，倾向于做长期投资，并且投资的金额不是特别大；再者，投资林业利国利民，符合国家重点扶持的产业，而在林业的发展中，丰产速生林具有国内市场需求旺盛，产业成长性好，投资回报率高等优势，成为人们投资的热点。目前全国用于营建速生丰产林的主要树种为桉树、杨树、柳树等。桉树主要分布在热带和亚热带地区，种植存在一定的争议；杨树分布在温带地区，耐涝适应性差；柳树分布范围较广，但生长速度相对较慢。柳树新品种竹柳生长快、抗逆性强、材质好、栽培经济效益非常高，按上述投资收益最长年限计算，每年平均亩产值1.25万元左右，投资回报率为1：18，您计算效益时按五折计算，每亩地每年还可收益将近6000元左右，可见发展竹柳人造丰产速生林是可行的，可投资的好项目。农村教育发展中心本文内容完，以下内容与本文无关。lesson 1 a private conversation d not enjoy it.?a young man and a young woman were sitting behind me. they were talking loudly. i got very angry. i could not hear the actors. i turned round. i looked at the man and the woman angrily. they did not pay any attention. in the end, i could not bear it. i turned round again. i cant hear a word! i said angrily.? its none of your business, the young man said rudely. this is a private conversation!.lesson 2 breakfast or lunch?h time.last sunday i got up very late. i looked out of the window. it was dark outside. what a day! i thought. its raining again. just then, the telephone rang. it was my aunt lucy. ive just arrived by train, she said. im coming to see you. but im still having breakfast, i said.what are you doing ? she asked. im having breakfast, i repeated.dear me, she said. do you always get up so late ? its one oclock!lesson 3 please send me a card eums and sat in public gardens. a friendly waiter taught me a few words of?italian. then he lent me a book. i read a few lines, but i did not understand a word. every day i thought about postcards. my holidays passed quickly, but i did not send any cards to my friends. on the last day les from silbury, but mr scott cannot get a telephone for his new garage, so he has just bought twelve pigeons. yesterday, a pigeon carried the first message from pinhurst to silbury. the bird covered the distance in three minutes. up to now, mr scott has sent a great many requests for spare parts and other urgent messages from one garage to the other. in this way, he has begun his own private telephone service.lesson 6 percy buttons i have just moved to a house in bridge street. yesterday a beggar knocked at my door. he asked me for a meal and a glass of beer. in return for this, the beggar stood on his head and sang songs. i gave him a meal. he ate the food and drank the beer. then he put a piece of cheese in his pocket and went away. later a neighbour told me about him. everybody knows him. his name is percy buttons. he calls at every house in the street once a month and always asks for a meal and a glass of beer.lesson 7 too late the plane was late and detectives were waiting at the airport all morning. they were expecting a valuable parcel of diamond from south africa. a few hours earlier, someone had told the police that thieves would try to steal the diamonds. when the plane arrived, some of the detectives were waiting inside the main building while others were waiting on the airfield. two men took the parcel off the plane and carried it into the customs house. while two detectives were keeping guard at the door, two others opened?the parcel. to their surprise, the precious parcel was full of stones and sand!lesson 8 the best and the worst joe sanders has the most beautiful garden in our town. nearly everybody enters for the nicest garden competition each year, but joe wins every time. bill friths garden is larger than joes. bill works harder than joe and grows more flowers and vegetables, but joes garden is more interesting. he has made neat paths and has built a wooden bridge over a pool. i like gardens too, but i do not like hard work. every year i enter for the garden competition too, and i always win a little prize for the worst garden in the town!lesson 9 a cold welcomeon wednesday evening, we went to the town hall. it was the last day of began to laugh and sing.lesson 10 not for jazzwe have an old musical instrument. it is called a clavichord(翼琴). it was made in germany in 1681. our clavichord is kept in the living-room. it has belong to our family for a long time. the instrument was bought by my grandfather many years ago. recently it was damaged by a visitor. she tried to play jazz on it! she struck the keys too hard and two of the strings were broken. my father was shocked. now we are not allowed to touch it. it is being repaired by a friend of my fathers.lesson 11 one good turn deserves anotheri was having dinner at a restaurant when harry steele people in the town will be meeting them at the station. tomorrow evening they will be singing at the workers club. the greenwood boys will be staying for five days. during this time, they will give five performances. as usual, the police will have a difficult time. they will be trying to keep order. it is always the same on these occasions.lesson 14 do you speak englishi had an amusing experience last year.?after i had left a small village in the south of france, i drove on to the next town. on the way, a young man waved to me. i stopped and he asked me for a lift. as soon as he had got into the car, i said good morning to him lesson 17 always young at least thirty-five years old. in spite of this, she often appears on the stage as a young girl. jennifer will have to take part in a new play soon. this time, she will be a girl of seventeen. in the play, she must appear in a bright red dress and long black stockings. last year in another play, she had to wear short socks and a bright, orange-coloured dress. if anyone ever asked her how old she is, she always answers, my dear, it must be terrible to be grown up!lesson18 he often does this! had left it on a chair beside the door and now it wasnt there ! as i was looking for it, the inn-keeper came in. did you have a good meal ? he asked. yes, thank you, i answered, but i cant pay the bill. i havent got my bag. the inn-keeper smiled and immediately went out. in a few minutes he returned with my bag and gave it back to me. im very sorry, he said my dog had taken it into the garden. he often does this.lesson19 sold out it may have begun already, susan answered.i hurried to the ticket-office. may i have two tickets please ? i asked.im sorry, weve sold out, the girl said.what a pity! susan exclaimed.just then, a man hurried to the ticket-office.can i return these two tickets? he asked.certainly, the girl said.lucky. i never catch anything-not even old boots. after having spent whole mornings on the river, i always go home with an empty bag. you must give up fishing! my friends say. its a waste of time. but they dont realize one important thing. im not really interested in fishing. i am only one of the few people left. sometimes i think this house will be knocked down by a passing plane. i have been offered a large sum of money to go away, but i am determined to stay here. everybody says i must be mad and they are probably right.lesson22 a glass envelopeng a letter from a girl of her own age in holland. last year, we were travelling across the channel and jane put a piece of paper with her name and address on it into a bottle. she threw the bottle into the sea. she never thought of it again, but ten months later, she received a letter from a girl in holland. both girls write to each other regularly now. however, they have decided to use the post-office. letters will cost a litt1e more, but they will certainly travel faster. lesson23 a new houserday. she lives in nigeria. in her letter, she said that she would come to lesson24 it could be worse . i had just lost &50 and i felt very upset. i left the money in my room, i said, and its not there now. the manager was sympathetic, but he could do nothing. everyones losing money these days, he said. he started to complain about this wicked world but what we know of prenatal development makes all this attempt made by a mother to mold the character of her unborn child by studying poetry, art, or mathematics during pregnancy seem utterly impossible. how could such extremely complex influences pass from the mother to the child? there is no connection between their nervous systems. even the blood vessels of mother and child do not join directly. an emotional shock to the mother will affect her child, because it changes the activity of her glands and so the chemistry her blood. any chemical change in the mothers blood will affect the child for better or worse. but we can not see how a looking for mathematics or poetic genius can be dissolved in blood and produce a similar liking or genius in the child. in our discussion of instincts we saw that there was reason to believe that whatever we inherit must be of some very simple sort rather than any complicated or very definite kind of behavior. it is certain that no one inherits a knowledge of mathematics. it may be, however, that children inherit more or less of a rather general ability that we may call intelligence. if very intelligent children become deeply interested in mathematics, they will probably make a success of that study. as for musical ability, it may be that what is inherited is an especially sensitive ear, a peculiar structure of the hands or the vocal organs connections between nerves and muscles that make it comparatively easy to learn the movements a musician must execute, and particularly vigorous emotions. if these factors are all organized around music, the child may become a musician. the same factors, in other circumstance might be organized about some other center of interest. the rich emotional equipment might find expression in poetry. the capable fingers might develop skill in surgery. it is not the knowledge of music that is inherited, then nor even the love of it, but a certain bodily structure that makes it comparatively easy to acquire musical knowledge and skill. whether that ability shall be directed toward music or some other undertaking may be decided entirely by forces in the environment in which a child grows up.1. which of the following statements is not true?a. some mothers try to influence their unborn children by studying art and other subjects during their pregnancy.b. it is utterly impossible for us to learn anything about prenatal development.c. the blood vessels of mother and child do not join directly.d. there are no connection between mothers nervous systems and her unborn childs.2. a mother will affect her unborn baby on the condition that _.a. she is emotionally shockedb. she has a good knowledge of inheritancec. she takes part in all kind of activitiesd. she sticks to studying3. according to the passage, a child may inherit_.a. everything from his motherb. a knowledge of mathematicsc. a rather general ability that we call intelligenced. her mothers musical ability4. if a child inherits something from his mother, such as an especially sensitive ear, a peculiar structure of the hands or of the vocal organs, he will _.a. surely become musicianb. mostly become a poetc. possibly become a teacherd. become a musician on the condition that all these factors are organized around music5. which of the following is the best title for the passage?a. role of inheritance. b. an unborn child.c. function of instincts. d. inherited talents. computers monitor everything in singapore from soil composition to location of manholes. at the airport, it took just 15 seconds for the computerized immigration system to scan and approve my passport. it takes only one minute to be checked into a public hospital. by 1998, almost every household will be wired for interactive cable tv and the internet, the global computer network. shoppers will b