2010年度酒店及旅游行业市场分析报告.doc

14668 hospitality 2010 14/6/06 8:23 am page adeloittemechanic280hospitality 2010a five year wake up callan in-depth report intodriving shareholder valuein the hospitality sectoraudit.tax.consulting.corporate finance.14668 hospitality 2010 14/6/06 8:23 am page bcontentsforewordexecutive summarydeloitte enterprise value mapbrand: time to build on the brandemerging markets: re-shape world tourismhuman assets: the people perspectivetechnology: why travel and it are made foreach otherairlines and hotels: joined at the hipactions to consideracknowledgments and the teamabout deloitte and new york universitydeloitte enterprise value map fold outb124581216202425262714668 hospitality 2010 14/6/06 8:23 am page 1forewordwelcome to hospitality 2010 our vision into mega-trends that willaffect shareholder value over the next five years.new york university (nyu) and deloitte dedicated a joint team ofprofessionals to develop a “vision 2010” of the global hospitalityindustry. our vision is supported by research, analysis and structuredinterviews with leading industry ceos.the report focuses on the strategic implications of the mega trendsthat are shaping the future of the hotel industry and which generatemost shareholder value.the mega-trends we have selected for review at this stage are:hospitality 2010we also recognise the importance of the business model andregulatory requirements and accordingly have identified these areasfor review at a later stage.we hope you find this report useful and we look forward to anyfeedback you may have and the opportunity to discuss with you theaspects affecting shareholder value in your business in more detail.best regards brand emerging markets human assets technologywe have included a section on air travel as this holds keyinformation which relates to the changing shape of the hospitalitysector by the year 2010.alex kyriakidisglobal managing partnertourism, hospitality & leisuredeloittedr. lalia rachassociate dean andhvs international chairpreston robert tisch center forhospitality, tourism and sportsmanagementnew york university114668 hospitality 2010 14/6/06 8:23 am page 2hospitality 2010executive summaryquestion: how many drivers of change are there in our industry?answer: far too many!to focus our strategic analysis, we used thedeloitte enterprise value mapto filter allthe possible drivers of change on the basisof their potential impact on shareholdervalue which, whether a public or privateenterprise, is the key measure of financialsuccess. we concluded that five“mega-trends” will have the greatestimpact on shareholder value namely,brand, emerging markets, human assets,technology and the business model.brand is the way forwardas most gateway cities reach productsaturation, brand, long held as the mostimportant value driver in consumer business,is receiving the industrys full attention.the changes in customer lifestyle,demanding experiential stay, will mean thatbrand choice, as opposed to location choice,will lead the way in the future.while brand is much talked about, there isno consensus within our industry on what itmeans or how it should be measured.we take the step in this report of proposingan industry definition for brand and aframework for the development of brandmetrics. interestingly, the industry analysts,commenting on brand value and innovation,are sceptical about the industrys ability todemonstrate “payback” on research anddevelopment (r&d) spend. our researchshows that spend on brand innovation isone of the key ceo priorities into thefuture. further more, the growing focus onbrand management versus assetmanagement impose challenges on existingpeople development and reporting metrics.where is the next big thing?three emerging markets stand out above allin terms of growth opportunities for theindustry, china, india and the gulf states.china and india, today 2nd and 4th in gdppurchasing power parity rankings, will moveup to 1st and 3rd by 2020 with chinaovertaking the usa for the number 1 slot.between india and china, we predict that atotal of 1.4 million of additional brandedhotel rooms will be required for thosemarkets to reach the same branded hotelpenetration as in uk.2should those markets move to usa levels ofbrand penetration, the demand rises to3.6 million of rooms, or 36,000 hotels.we predict that the majority of these roomswill be positioned in the economy and mid-market segments. the gulf states areinvesting heavily in tourism infrastructureand markets such as dubai, qatar, bahrainand oman will challenge the traditionalcontinental europe destinations for tourism business, leisure and residential.while these emerging markets offerexceptional growth opportunities, theworlds largest tourism spend market theusa still has some way to go. total travel& tourism spend in the usa, both domesticand outbound, is predicted to double from$830 billion to a staggering $1.6 trillion by2015, leaving room for growth, particularlyat the luxury end of the market.the generation gameattitudes and lifestyle differ between themain generation segments with the babyboomers (aged 42-60) living longer andenjoying a more active and youngeroutlook. these so called “silver” consumersare brand wise, travel more and desire newexperiences both in terms of cultural andevent based tourism. our research showsthat, by 2050 the worlds population willgrow to around 9 billion1but less than 6%of that growth will come from developedcountries. the percentage of the populationaged 65 and over in europe will increasefrom 15% in 2000 to nearly 25% by 2015and increased travel by the “silver” segmentwill keep europe as the number one tourismexporting region, delivering some730 million travellers by 20202.with a turnover rate of 50%, the industryneeds to do a better job in attracting andretaining employees. the ageing populationin many of the developed economies meansthat, increasingly, human assets will besourced from developing countries and theindustry will need to adopt new standards inhr management. the hotel of the futurewill be a micro-cosmos of generational,religious, nationality and culturalintegration.technology: playing catch-upthe industry, historically in the lowestquartile of spend on technology withinconsumer business, recognises the need forgreater investment in technology,particularly in customer relationshipmanagement (crm) systems, as a means ofinfluencing customer behaviour. the airlineindustry leads the way, with travellersshowing greater preference for airline milesthan hotel points and making consciousdecisions to fly with the same carrier despiteinconvenient schedules. there is anopportunity to learn from other industriesbut also to innovate in terms of extendingthe customer touch-points with the brandwell beyond the physical stay.key to the industrys success will betechnology investment associated with thedistribution puzzle. our findingsdemonstrate that due to investment inonline b to c systems, a more transparentpricing structure with rate guarantees and increased penetration of internet usagegenerally, the industry is winning a greatershare of the online market. with up to23.1% of room revenue at stake inintermediary commissions, there is a lot togo for.from west to eastthe future of air travel, the critical link in thetourism chain, is bright, with skyrocketingnumbers of passengers flying by 2010.over 1.6 billion passengers worldwide usethe worlds airlines for business and leisuretravel. by 2010, we estimate that number tobe in the range of 2.3 billion with revenuepassenger kilometres (rpks) expected toreach 5 trillion. by 2010, we predict a shiftfrom north to south and west to east withthe emergence of india and china tocapture 15% of the global passengergrowth.14668 hospitality 2010 14/6/06 8:23 am page 3hospitality 2010safety & security concerns will prevail.whether terrorism, natural disasters orpandemics, the industry will face shockswhich will impact performance. on thepositive side, tomorrows traveller will takegreater ownership of his or her safety &security through increased use of theinternet for travel risk assessment and, ifhistory is anything to go by, travellers willreturn to affected destinations as soon asthey perceive the destination to be safe.looking good but needs workin summary, the fundamentals for theindustry are very robust, now and into thefuture. the global demand for travel andtourism will provide unprecedentedopportunities for the industry to grow butas this report shows, actions must be takento seize the opportunities available. theseare set out on page 24 of the report.1 jacob kirkegaard, institute for internationaleconomics demographics, speaking at world traveland tourism council summit 2006.2 world tourism organisation.314668 hospitality 2010 14/6/06 8:23 am page 4hospitality 2010deloitte enterprise value mapthe deloitte enterprise value map,developed by the consulting team atdeloitte in 2005, is a tool to assistcompanies in assessing projects to ensurethey are generating shareholder value.an interactive element allows managementto map their ongoing and planned projectsto shareholder value generators enablingthem to review whether projects supportthe companys strategy and aims andwhether they are evenly balanced acrossthe generators.we have tailored the high-level generatorsof the enterprise value mapfor thehospitality industry as shown at the back ofthis document. using these generators weestablished that the key drivers of changewhich will impact shareholder value in theshort to medium term divide into fivethemes brand, human assets, emergingmarkets, technology and the businessmodel. given the resources available weconcluded that whilst the business model,including a regulatory theme, is vitallyimportant to the industry it would bedeferred to be the subject of research nextyear.4speaking to the ceos confirmed that thefive mega-trends identified were the keydrivers of change they thought wouldimpact shareholder value through to 2010.the notable difference between the ceos istheir view of the relative importance of thethemes and the timescale in which they willimpact. three of the ceos thought humanassets were most important. brand was themost important or second most importantconsideration for five ceos. regardless ofwhat is most important with regards toshareholder value, most of the ceos viewtechnology and emerging markets as thethemes which are moving most quickly andhave the most public impact.an adaptation of the deloitte enterprisevalue mapfor the hospitality industry isattached as a fold out at the back of thisreport.“technology is the fastestweapon the industry hasfor material productdifferentiation. brands aremore important over thelonger term and changingbrand perception is a slowprocess. demographicchanges tend to take 5 to10 years to materialise”andy cosslett, ceo, intercontinentalhotels group14668 hospitality 2010 14/6/06 8:24 am page 5brandtime to build on the brandhospitality 2010brandtoday, when customers browse throughtheir hotel choices, location is usually thedeciding factor. more than 97% of affluentleisure travellers and 93% of affluentbusiness travellers consider location to beextremely influential. in contrast, only 57%and 54% are influenced by the brand.1however, this picture is gradually changingand, given the market saturation in gatewaycities worldwide with leading brands sitedclose to one another, location is likely tobecome increasingly less important. this isalready happening in park lane, london,which is home to five luxury hotels.tomorrows traveller will be far moreinfluenced by brand, and importantly forthe financial health of a hotel guests whoare loyal to their preferred brand are likelyto stay more and spend more.loyalty programmes among airlines areincreasingly popular, with travellerschanging their itineraries often at theirinconvenience to ensure they qualify formiles and tier points with the same carrier.although its debatable whether customersare being loyal to the airline or the pointsprogramme, these schemes are working well.as a recent study confirmed, both businessand leisure travellers prefer airline miles tohotel points, with 80% of travellerschoosing to belong to an airline loyaltyprogramme, and only 60% opting to joina hotel frequent guest programme.1this may be because, until now thehospitality brand has been defined in narrowterms, focusing on image and consistency ofexperience, but without much innovation tocapture customers interest. however, thereis now plenty of scope to increase the brandvalue, as companies in the broaderconsumer goods sector have done, bylooking at additional elements such asglobalisation, brand personality, brandleverage and meeting the needs ofcustomers for different experiences.more than a nameour research reveals that, currently there isno consensus of what constitutes thebrand, and few organisations within thehospitality industry use brand metricsbeyond the traditional jd power and rgiindices. but if hotels are to respond to shiftsin market demand, its time the industryadopted a more inclusive definition of whatthe brand covers.deloitte considers the brand to be anexternal and internal representation ofeverything the company stands for. itembraces each stakeholder interactionswith the organisation and includes thestakeholders expectations of the brand.the term stakeholder covers not onlyhotel guests, but employees, owners,franchisees, suppliers and intermediaries,because all of these groups help deliverthe brand promise.setting expectationsin order to set stakeholder expectations,the brand promise must be defined andcommunicated. this often leads to thepublication of a brand positioning statementthat underpins internal and externalcommunications. it should articulate clearlythe brand promise. often, there is anassumption that the brand promise mattersonly to customers, but in reality it must beadopted by everyone in the value chain.chart 1: brand value drivers2006*imageexperience consistently delivered*global vs internationalpersonalitysource: deloitte & touche llp“marriott rewardsmembers on averagedouble their numberof stays at a marriottproperty after joining theprogramme and 85% ofmembers say theyll driveout of their way to stayat a marriott.”holly mendelson, director ofcommunications, marriottinternational rewards loyaltyprogrammethe core message will not change, but it willbe adapted slightly for each stakeholdergroup, such as employees and businesspartners.employees who are the main deliverers ofthe brand promise within the hospitalitysector have a critical role. the mostsuccessful consumer business brands tendto be those where the reality of customerservice matches the promises made by thecompany in all its marketing promotions.2010*innovationextension/leverage*investmentequityvaluation514668 hospitality 2010 14/6/06 8:24 am page 6hospitality 2010brandthis is only possible where employeesunderstand and accept their organisationsbrand attributes and are prepared to deliverthem.all operational and investment activitiesshould be built on the brand promise,particularly staff training, advertising,portfolio decisions and renovationsotherwise, the brand value could be diluted.consistency is paramount, as shown bysome of the most successful global brands,where a consistent product experience iscentral to the brands success and customerloyalty. however, because of the multitudeof customer touch points, consistency ismuch harder to achieve in the hospitalityindustry.when every touch point counts, budgethotels tend to be product-based with fewercustomer touch points. for instance, withaccors formula 1 hotels it is possible tobook online and check-in via credit cardaccess to the room, with no humaninteraction.in this case, consistently delivering thecustomer experience is relativelystraightforward. at the other end of thespectrum, the customer experience in luxuryhotels is built on a high level of personalservice. staying at a first class hotel can leadto multiple interactions with numerouspeople such as the doormen,receptionists, porters, concierge,housekeeping, room service, spa staff andoth