[英语学习]Thecelestialeconomy经济学人读译.docVIP

Economics focus经济聚焦The celestial economy未来经济By 2030 Chinas economy could loom as large as Britains in the 1870s or Americas in the 1970s2030年，中国的经济规模将有望达到19世纪70年代的英国或20世纪70年代的美国 IT IS perhaps a measure of Americas resilience as an economic power that its demise is so often foretold. In 1956 the Russians politely informed Westerners that “history is on our side. We will bury you.” In the 1980s history seemed to side instead with Japan. Now it appears to be taking Chinas part.常有人预言美国会衰落，但这也可能只是美国作为经济强国的复苏手段之一。1956年，德国人礼貌性的通知西方人：“历史是站在我们这边的，我们要把你们埋葬。”20世纪80年代，历史似乎同日本站到了一起。而如今历史似乎正步入中国。These prophesies are “self-denying”, according to Larry Summers, a former economic adviser to President Barack Obama. They fail to come to pass partly because America buys into them, then rouses itself to defy them. “As long as were worried about the future, the future will be better,” he said, shortly before leaving the White House. His speech is quoted in “Eclipse”, a new book by Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Mr Subramanian argues that Chinas economic might will overshadow Americas sooner than people think. He denies that his prophecy is self-denying. Even if America heeds its warning, there is precious little it can do about it.美国总统贝拉克奥巴马的前经济顾问莱瑞萨摩斯说，这些预言统统不攻自破，其部分原因是美国在预言出现之际便奋起直追击败它们。莱瑞萨摩斯离开白宫前说：“只要我们对未来还心存担忧，未来就会越来越好。”他的言论被彼得森国际经济研究所的阿文德萨勃拉曼尼亚引用到自己的新书中。萨勃拉曼尼亚说，中国的经济可能比人们想象的更快超过美国，并认为此预言不会和前面提到的那些一样。即使美国对此留心，也无济于事。Three forces will dictate Chinas rise, Mr Subramanian argues: demography, convergence and “gravity”. Since China has over four times Americas population, it only has to produce a quarter of Americas output per head to exceed Americas total output. Indeed, Mr Subramanian thinks China is already the worlds biggest economy, when due account is taken of the low prices charged for many local Chinese goods and services outside its cities. Big though it is, Chinas economy is also somewhat “backward”. That gives it plenty of scope to enjoy catch-up growth, unlike Japans economy, which was still far smaller than Americas when it reached the technological frontier.他指出，促使中国崛起的三大动因是：人口、聚合性、“地心引力”。中国人口是美国的四倍，因此只要中国人均产量达到美国的四分之一，总产量就能超过美国。事实上，萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，要是适当考虑到中国许多城市以外的地方物品和服务收费低等因素，中国已经超过美国，成为世界第一经济大国。尽管中国可称为经济大国，但是发展水平仍有些滞后。这同时也给了中国广阔的发展空间。不像日本，技术排名前列，经济实力却落后美国很远。 Buoyed by these two forces, China will account for over 23% of world GDP by 2030, measured at PPP, Mr Subramanian calculates. America will account for less than 12%. China will be equally dominant in trade, accounting for twice Americas share of imports and exports. That projection relies on the “gravity” model of trade, which assumes that commerce between countries depends on their economic weight and the distance between them. Chinas trade will outpace Americas both because its own economy will expand faster and also because its neighbours will grow faster than those in Americas backyard.萨勃拉曼尼亚按照购买力评价计算出，受前两个因素的推动，中国将在2030年占到世界GDP的23%以上，而美国仅为不到12%。同时中国将在贸易方面占支配地位，进出口份额为美国的两倍，。这一推测需依靠贸易上的“地心引力”模式：国家间的贸易依赖各国的经济实力和经济差异。中国贸易的发展步伐将超过美国因为不仅中国的经济发展迅速，其邻国的经济也比美国的邻国发展迅速。Mr Subramanian combines each countrys share of world GDP, trade and foreign investment into an index of economic “dominance”. By 2030 Chinas share of global economic power will match Americas in the 1970s and Britains a century before (see chart). Those prudent American strategists preparing their countrymen for a “multipolar” world are wrong. The global economy will remain unipolar, dominated by a “G1”, Mr Subramanian argues. Its just that the one will be China not America.萨勃拉曼尼亚将中美两国各自的全球GDP份额、交易份额和外资份额放在一起，得出了一个经济“优势”指数。到2030年，中国在全球的经济份额将达到美国20世纪70年代和英国上世纪的水平（如表）。精明的美国战略家们也走错了一步棋引导美国人为“多级”世界做准备。萨勃拉曼尼亚表示，全球经济将仍向单极化发展，受“G1”主导。而此“1”乃中国而非美国。Mr Subramanians conclusion is controversial. The assumptions, however, are conservative. He does not rule out a “major financial crisis”. He projects that Chinas per-person income will grow by 5.5% a year over the next two decades, 3.3 percentage points slower than it grew over the past two decades or so. You might almost say that Mr Subramanian is a “China bear”. He lists several countries (Japan, Hong Kong, Germany, Spain, Taiwan, Greece, South Korea) that reached a comparable stage of developmenta living standard equivalent to 25% of Americas at the timeand then grew faster than 5.5% per head over the subsequent 20 years. He could find only one, Nicolae Ceausescus Romania, which reached that threshold and then suffered a worse slowdown than the one he envisages for China.萨勃拉曼尼亚的结论虽有争议，但还算保守。他未排除 “重大经济危机”的发生。他推测在未来20年，中国的人均收入会比过去20年慢3.3%，年增长率为5.5%。你也许要说萨勃拉曼尼亚是个“中国论者”。他列出了几个发展程度相似的国家(日本、香港、德国、西班牙、台湾、希腊、韩国)当时生活水平达到美国的25%在接下来的20年将提高5.5%以上。他发现，只在齐奥塞斯库统治罗马尼亚时，生活水平刚跨入这一行列就减慢了速度，而且比萨勃拉曼尼亚预测的中国下降速率还要慢。He is overly sanguine only on the problems posed by Chinas ageing population. In the next few years, the ratio of Chinese workers to dependants will stop rising and start falling. He dismisses this demographic turnaround in a footnote, arguing that it will not weigh heavily on Chinas growth until after 2030.萨勃拉曼尼亚的过分乐观仅表现在中国的老龄化问题上。他表示，未来几年，中国的工人和其家属比例将停止增长而开始下降。他在注脚处写上这组人口的转变，并称直到2030年以后这一比例才会在中国发展过程中扩大。Both China and America could surprise people, of course. If Chinas political regime implodes, “all bets will be off”, Mr Subramanian admits. Indonesias economy, by way of comparison, took over four years to right itself after the financial crisis that ended President Suhartos 32-year reign. But even that upheaval only interrupted Indonesias progress without halting it. America might also rediscover the vim of the 1990s boom, growing by 2.7% per head, rather than the 1.7% Mr Subramanian otherwise assumes. But even that stirring comeback would not stop it falling behind a Chinese economy growing at twice that pace. So Americans are wrong to think their “pre-eminence is Americas to lose”.当然，中国和美国都能做出让人惊讶的事。萨勃拉曼尼亚承认，倘若中国政权内部出现斗争，“所有的猜测都不算数了”。对比一下，经济危机结束了苏哈托32年的政权，印度尼西亚之后花了四年时间才使经济步入正轨。但即使是那次剧变也只是扰乱了印尼的发展步伐而并没能使其停滞不前。萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，美国也许会重现20世纪90年代经济繁荣时期的活力，人均增长速度将从1.7%扩大到2.7%。但即使当年的发展势头重现也无法与中国两倍于此的速度相比。因此，美国人错误的认为“美国输掉了优越地位”。Bratty or benign?厌恶还是仁慈If China does usurp America, what kind of hegemon will it be? Some argue that it will be a “premature” superpower. Because it will be big before it is rich, it will dwell on its domestic needs to the neglect of its global duties. If so, the world may resemble the headless global economy of the inter-war years, when Britain was unable, and America unwilling, to lead. But Mr Subramanian prefers to describe China as a precocious superpower. It will not be among the richest economies, but it will not be poor either. Its standard of living will be about half Americas in 2030, and a little higher than the European Unions today.如果中国真的抢占了美国的主导地位，会实行什么样的霸权？有些人认为是“尚未成熟的”超级霸权，因为中国虽大却并不富裕，它只考虑国内需求而忽略自己的国际责任。如果这样，全球经济就会像战争的过渡年代时期那样群龙无首，那时英国已无能力支配，而美国又不愿承担此重任。但是萨勃拉曼尼亚还是选择将中国看做一个尚未成熟的超级大国，它虽不在最富裕的国家之列，却也已摆脱贫困。中国的生活水平在2030年将达到美国的一半，略高于现在的欧盟国家。With luck China will combine its precocity in economic development with a plodding conservatism in economic diplomacy. It should remain committed to preserving an open world economy. Indeed, its commitment may run deeper than Americas, because its ratio of trade to GDP is far higher.顺利的话，中国将经济发展上的不成熟同经济外交上的保守沉稳相结合，仍可维持世界经济的开放性。实际上中国对世界的贡献将比美国更加深远，因为中国贸易在GDP中所占比例远高于美国。Chinas dominance will also have limits,