商业零售行业2013年1月跟踪报告：旺季效应助行业回暖_投资首选高成长公司-2013-01-31.ppt

2012/10/4,2012/11/4,2012/12/4,2012/1/4,2012/2/4,2012/3/4,2012/4/4,2012/5/4,2012/6/4,2012/7/4,2012/8/4,2012/9/4,2013/1/4,2013,1,2013,1,31,gdp,52%,2012,gdp 80%+,50% s1010510120001,12,2012,12,15.2% 2012 8% 9%,10,/11 14.3%,14.5%/14.9% q4,q3 12yu_,12,12,/,1.0,3.0ppt,25% 20%,300,cs,14.5% 15.0%,2013,4ppt,/cpi,15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20%,2012,2012q4/2013q1,-25% -30%,2012,15%,50%,2012q4,1.,2013,2013,2013,15x,/,2.,.2012-12-12 it, 2013-01-04 3. .2012-10-18,a,4.,(6808.hk) secularly-growing market leader,30.03 25.64 8.87,11n 0.94 0.61 0.81,eps 12e 1.25 0.65 0.68,13e 2.01 0.90 0.74,14e 2.45 1.26 0.96,11n 32 42 11,pe 12e 24 39 13,13e 15 28 12,14e 12 20 9,peg 0.85 1.07 0.69,40.0 30.0 11.0,5.,amid rapid nationwide expansion .2013-01-18 (0848.hk) cross-regional expansion via development of complexes,a,11.37 22.17 13.71 9.90 57.94,0.65 1.02 0.88 0.52 0.81,0.74 1.23 0.81 0.64 1.37,0.88 1.50 0.93 0.80 1.76,1.11 1.90 1.12 0.94 2.36,17 22 16 19 72,15 18 17 15 42,13 15 15 12 33,10 12 12 11 25,0.90 0.94 1.86 0.87 1.67,16.3 28.3 16.74 13.0 61.6,.2013-01-17,2013/1/30,12,/,2013,2013,1,2,+,15,17,18,2013,1, 3,. 3 6 7 . 7,12,12,15.2%,q4,. 7 8,12,/,/, 9,.10 14.5% 11 . 12 14 14 14,gdp gdp,1952-2011 1978-2012,3 .3,3,gdp,2011,91.5%.4,4 5 6 7 8 9,gdp gdp gdp,/,gdp 70,80.4% .4 80%4 .4 35%.5 1952-2011).5 71.2%.5,10 11 1979 12 13 14,gdp,5000 90 2012,.6 .6 6 .7 2009-2012 7,.7,16 2010,.8 8 .8,19,20,22,23,27,28,29,30,1,2,3,5,2013,1,8 9,21 26 50,3000,.9 9 9 . 10 . 10 . 11 11 1995-2012 11,31,gdp,1995q1-2012q3,. 12,32 2013,ttm pe,. 14,33 2012,. 14 .9 12,2012,2013q1, 13,4,pe,. 14 15,1952,1954,1956,1958,1960,1962,1964,1966,1968,1970,1972,1974,1976,1978,1980,1982,1984,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,1978,1979,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,1,2012,2012 gdp,7.8%,1.4,gdp 1,51.8%,gdp,50.4% 1952-2011,90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%,wind,gdp:,gdp:,gdp:,49.2% 48.2% 2.6%,2,gdp,1978-2012,gdp,:,gdp,:,gdp,:,100%,80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40%,wind,50.4% 51.8% -2.2%,2011,/,/,48.2%/49.2%/2.6%,80% 50.1%,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,1929,1931,1933,1935,1937,1939,1941,1943,1945,1947,1949,1951,1953,1955,1957,1959,1961,1963,1965,1967,1969,1971,1973,1975,1977,1979,1981,1983,1985,1987,1989,1991,1993,1995,1997,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,2011,2013,1,83.6%/76.6%/80%,gdp,3,gdp,2011,%,91.5%,%,%,120.0%,100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0%,wind,91.5% 12.3% -3.8%,4,gdp,80.4%,90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0%,wind,%,%,%,80.4% 20.5% -0.9%,5,gdp,80%,6,gdp,%,90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0%,%,%,79.0%,100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0%,91.5% 80.4% 48.2%,40.0%,40.0%,30.0% 20.0% 10.0%,19.5% 1.5%,30.0% 20.0% 10.0%,0.0%,wind,15% 20%,35%,0.0%,wind,13%,55% 70%,1970,gdp,5000,10,pct,2011,1952,1952,1954,1954,1956,1956,1958,1960,1958,1960,1962,1962,1964,1966,1968,1970,1972,1964,1966,1968,1970,1972,1974,1974,1976,1978,1980,1982,1976,1978,1980,1982,1984,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,1984,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,1929,1931,1933,1935,1937,1939,1941,1943,1945,1947,1949,1951,1953,1955,1957,1959,1961,1963,1965,1967,1969,1971,1973,1975,1977,1979,1981,1983,1985,1987,1989,1991,1993,1995,1997,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,2011,2013,1,71.2% 2011,1975,gdp 5000 60%,2011,gdp,5400,7 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 8 100% 90% 80%,gdp wind,/,gdp: gdp:,35% 1952-2011),gdp: gdp:,49.2% 34.9% 13.3% 2.6%,28%,70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% wind,9,70,%,%,71.2%,%,%,90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0%,1970,gdp,5000,2011 48000,71.2%,gdp,71.2% 20.3%,10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0%,wind,12.3%,1980,1982,1984,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,1962,1967,1972,1977,1982,1987,1992,1997,2002,2007,2011,2010,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,/,204.2,150,150.6,129.2,100,20.0%,47.8,0,0.0%,20.0%,15.0%,10.0%,5.0%,0.0%,2013,1,10,gdp,5000 %,%,70.0% 60.0%,%,%,60%,50.0%,1975,gdp,5000,40.0%,30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0%,wind,21%,11 1979,cagr % cagr %,12 yoy(%),90,30.0% 25.0%,350 300,53.9%,58.8%,400,70.0% 60.0%,250 218.550.0% 49.0% 200 180.9191.7 40.0% 166.2 22.4% 30.0% 111.4 75.992.9 15.9%16.6% 50 32.1 19.9% 8.8%6.5%7.0% 10.0% 20.9 10.4% 6.0% euromonitor,2004a,2005a,2006a,2007a,2008a,2009a,2010a,2011a,2012m1-m9,5.2%,2013,1,13,2012,14,+,2009-2012,/,%,+,“,”,6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.2%2.6%,3.1%,/ % 4.1%4.4% 3.6%3.6% 3.0% 2.1%,4.8% 5.1% 4.3%,250 200 150,191,2.0%,1.3%,1.0% 0.3%0.6%0.6%0.6% 0.0%,100 50,52,0.5,9.36,0,2009,2010,2011,2012,15 mall,12 12,+ 15.2%,odm/oem,/,2010(1-2),2011(1-2),2012(1-2),2010/03,2010/04,2010/05,2010/06,2010/07,2010/08,2010/09,2010/10,2010/11,2010/12,2011/03,2011/04,2011/05,2011/06,2011/07,2011/08,2011/09,2011/10,2011/11,2011/12,2012/03,2012/04,2012/05,2012/06,2012/07,2012/08,2012/09,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,2011/03,2011/04,2011/05,2011/06,2011/07,2011/08,2011/09,2011/10,2011/11,2011/12,2011(1-2),2012(1-2),2012/04,2012/05,2012/06,2012/07,2012/08,2012/09,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,2012/03,2010(1-2),2010/03,2010/04,2010/05,2010/06,2010/07,2010/08,2010/09,2010/10,2010/11,2010/12,2011(1-2),2011/03,2011/04,2011/05,2011/06,2011/07,2011/08,2011/09,2011/10,2011/11,2011/12,2012(1-2),2012/03,2012/04,2012/05,2012/06,2012/07,2012/08,2012/09,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,-1.14%,-3.5%,0.70% %,0.10%,-2%,-2.20%,-3.30% -3.30%,-4.30%,-4.50%,-5.08%,-6.30%,-7.30%,%,-2%,-4%,-6%,-8%,2%,0%,2013,1,2012 /10 /11,12,14.2%/14.5%/14.9%,20334 q3,15.2%,2012,9,207167,14.3%,12,17.7%,2011,10.8ppt 1-12,17.8%,2011,5.6ppt,18,2012,6,2011,16,2010,2012,12,17,2011,12,%,20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14%,% 11 12 18.10% , 11 12 13.78%,% ,12 15.20%,35% 30% 25% 20%,2011-12, 28.51%,% 2012-12, 17.68%,13%,12% 11% 10% 18,12, 12 13.50%,15% 10%,19,0.0% -0.5% -0.60% -0.60% -1.0% -0.70% -1.00% -1.40% -1.40%-1.44% -2.0% -1.76% -2.5% -2.10% -2.20% -3.0% -3.00%,-1.5% -1.40% -1.10%,-3.10%,-2.40% -2.70% -2.90% -3.50%,-1.80%,0.40% -0.30%,-6.00%,-7.70%,-4.80% -4.80% -6.90%,-3.80% -4.14%,-4.0% -4.5% 8.9%/8.5%,12,-3.80% -4.00% -4.10% 7.5/0.3ppt,q4 12,-10% -12% 12,/3000,q4,-10.83%,3000,q4,8.6%,q3,8.1%,0.5ppt,2011(01-02),2012(01-02),2011-03,2011-04,2011-05,2011-06,2011-07,2011-08,2011-09,2011-10,2011-11,2011-12,2012-03,2012-04,2012-05,2012-06,2012-07,2012-08,2012-09,2012-10,2012-11,2012-12,03/10,04/10,05/10,06/10,07/10,08/10,09/10,10/10,11/10,12/10,01/11,02/11,03/11,04/11,05/11,06/11,07/11,08/11,09/11,10/11,11/11,12/11,01/12,02/12,03/12,04/12,05/12,06/12,07/12,08/12,09/12,10/12,11/12,12/12,11(01-02),11/03,11/04,11/05,11/06,11/07,11/08,11/09,11/10,11/11,11/12,12/03,12/04,12/05,12/06,12/07,12/08,12/09,12/10,12/11,12/12,10.1,18.00,18.30,18.60,17.60,17.40,19.20,15.30,15.70,10.20,8.50 8.50,2013,1,20,(%),21,3000,(%),35.0,(%),30.00,3000,30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0,29.0 28.7,29.0 23.5 21.0,25.5,22.2,27.8 18.3 16.0,20.8 11.9 7.7,16.8 11.0,15.8 7.4,8.4,7.8,16.40 8.90,25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00,17.00,17.80,18.8019.10,26.60 19.50 19.00,15.40 15.00 14.40 14.70 13.50 13.00,8.30 8.70 8.10 8.30 7.90 7.80 8.00,8.80 8.50,0.0,ceic,5.00 0.00,wind,2.30,12,/,/,/,/,/,12,19.6%/16.5%/16.4%/9.7%,5.1/0.8/4.2/1.6ppt,2011,12,22 %,23 %,30.0,:,:,60.0,:,:,:,25.0 20.0 15.0,21.90 18.30,50.0 40.0 30.0,1,10.0 5.0 0.0,wind,20.0 10.0 0.0,wind,19.60 16.50 16.40,2010 12,2011 12,2011 12,2012 12,2010,1-12,2011 1-12,2011 1-12,2012 1-12,%,(,),%,%,%,15,021 6,808 831 750 95 133 224,17,740 8,381 1068 950 111 180 277,18.10% 23.10% 28.50% 26.70% 16.90% 35.60% 23.40%,17,651 8,633 1,091 998 117 188 281,20,334 9,962 1291 1162 136 225 342,15.20% 15.40% 18.30% 16.40% 16.50% 19.60% 21.90%,154,762 63,445 8,239 6,405 929 1,293 2,230,181,226 78,164 10,323 7,955 1103 1,837 2,767,17.10% 23.20% 25.30% 24.20% 18.70% 42.10% 24.10%,181,248 81,298 10,522 8,286 1,145 1,904 2,863,207,167 14.30% 93,330 14.80% 12,406 17.90% 9,778 18.00% 1340 17.00% 2,209 16.00% 3,364 17.50%,2011/06,2011/07,2011/08,2011/09,2011/10,2011/11,2011/12,2012/01,2012/02,2012/03,2012/04,2012/05,2012/06,2012/07,2012/08,2012/09,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,13.5%,17.9,18.5,11.9,11.4,2013,1,2010 12,2011 12,2011 12,2012 12,2010,1-12,2011 1-12,2011 1-12,2012 1-12,%,(,),%,%,%,32,37,14.10%,36,44,22.30%,325,367,13.00%,372,411 10.50%,426,568,33.40%,590,647,9.70%,4,420,5,375,21.60%,5,537,5,936,7.20%,293 148 101 87 994,373 198 141 109 1,303,27.20% 34.10% 39.20% 24.80% 31.10%,390 206 143 137 1,272,473 232 189 156 1,514,21.40% 12.70% 32.40% 14.00% 19.00%,3,060 1,277 889 839 10,507,3,718 1,629 1,181 1070 14,437,21.50% 27.60% 32.80% 27.50% 37.40%,3,914 1,855 1,263 1,195 14,249,4,814 23.00% 2,183 17.70% 1,604 27.00% 1540 28.90% 16,657 16.90%,2,152,2,371,10.20%,2,460,2,681,9.00%,18,183,20,838,14.60%,22,184,23,803,7.30%,131 411,180 515,37.20% 25.36%,193 532,238 632,23.30% 18.84%,1,076 3,773,1,400 4,164,30.10% 10.37%,1,587 4,421,1,978 24.60% 5,307 20.04%,3,663,4,707,28.51%,4,901,5,767,17.68%,34,754,42,889,23.41%,44,865,52,870,17.84 %,wind,2011,2000,500,200,%,2010,2011,1-12,/,12,12.4%,q3,3.4ppt,12,11.7%,12 2011,1.8%,26,50,27,%,30% 25%,23.9%,23.9%,50,%,30.0 25.0,27.5,: 25.6,20% 15% 10% 5%,16.1%,18.2% 12.9%,14.6% 11.6%,16.9% 10.3% 6.0%,9.1%,15.0% 9.5% 4.8%,13.7%,20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0,21.6 19.4 19.2 17.4 17.0 17.4,21.3 18.8,20.7 20.7 19.5 19.8 19.1 19.0 14.5 8.2,18.4 14.8 16.8 10.910.2 10.1 9.6 8.8 8.1,12.5 12.4,0%,-5%,-2.8%,0.0,-1.9,-5.0 wind 50,199501,199610,199807,200004,200201,200310,200507,200704,200901,201010,201207,:,15.1,12.3,7.9,21.8,21.4,18.8,16.8,9.0,6.3,2013,1,25.0,28,22.9,%,29 30.0,:,%,20.0,21.0,19.1,19.8,25.0,25.9,15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0,17.9 17.0 15.9 15.6 16.4 15.7 15.5,14.1,15.8 15.2 14.4 13.4 8.4,14.4 13.1 14.3 13.9,8.8 6.4 -2.0,7.9,8.1 5.0,8.2,7.5,11.7 9.2,20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0,17.9 18.4 17.2 15.0,21.8 20.8,8.6,18.7 13.5 11.7,11.9 8.8,11.8 10.2 10.8 9.8,13.8 5.8 4.0 -0.8,4.9,7.8 5.2 3.3,7.0,5.2 1.8,-5.0,wind 2013,rpi,-5.0,wind,14.5%,2013,rpi,1.18,0.899,gdp 30,1996,1995-2012,gdp,gdp,rpi,%,cpi,%,%,30 25 20 15 10 5 0 (5),wind,40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0,199503,199509,199603,199609,199703,199709,199803,199809,199903,199909,200003,200009,200103,200109,200203,200209,200303,200309,200403,200409,200503,200509,200603,200609,200703,200709,200803,200809,200903,200909,201003,201009,201103,201109,201203,201209,2013,1,31,gdp,1995q1-2012q3 gdp,% %,35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 wind,2013,2012,cpi,15.0%,14.5%,2.8pct 8.0% 2012,14.3% 7.8% 2013q1,2013 15.0%,2.5%,2013,gdp 14.5%,2,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012e,2013e,yoy cpi,gdp gdp,306,859.8 149,112.6 15.8% 9.6% 48.6% 114,830.1 77.0% 28.7% 5.90%,345,023.6 165,611.3 11.1% 9.2% 48.0% 132,678.4 80.1% 15.5% -0.70%,397,983.0 198,991.5 20.2% 10.3% 50.0% 156,998.4 78.9% 18.3% 3.30%,471,564.0 224,170.0 12.7% 9.2% 47.5% 183,919.0 82.0% 17.1% 5.40%,527,208.6 255,696.1 14.1% 7.8% 48.5% 210,219.4 82.2% 14.3% 2.70%,585,728.7 292,864.4 14.5% 7.9% 50.0% 240,441.6 82.1% 14.5% 2.50%,wind 2013 2012 2012,+50%,+70%,+,+105%,+30% +50%,+33%,+30%,+10% +30% +12% +15%,+25% 30% a +10%,+18% 20%,+15%,-10% +10% 0%,+5%,+10%,0%+5%,+8%,-5%,+5% -10%,+10%,3,a,2013,1,2012,-10% 2013q1,2012,-35%,-40%,2013q1,000501.sz,10%,8%13%,600858.sh,0.45,200% +105%,30% 40%,600697.sh 600859.sh 002277.sz 600828.sh 600729.sh 000987.sz 600723.sh,18%20% 10% 25%30% 5%10% 15% 12%15%,0 5%,15%18% 10%15% 20% 5% 15% 5%10% 5%10%,601010.sh 600827.sh 601933.sh 002251.sz 002024.sz 002344.sz 600315.sh,5% 0%5% +8% 30% -35% -40% 33% 70%,10%,10% 15% 0%5% 70% 20%25% -15%-5% 50% 35% 45%,wind 2013 2013 +50% +20% +50%,-15%,-5%,/ 1,2012/10/4,2012/11/4,2012/12/4,2012/1/4,2012/2/4,2012/3/4,2012/4/4,2012/5/4,2012/6/4,2012/7/4,2012/8/4,2012/9/4,2013/1/4,/,2013,1,2 3,2013,2013,15x,32,2013,ttm,33,2012,pe,50,54,/a,% ttm pe,a,ttm pe,500%,25% 20%,300,cs,45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0,450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0%,15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30%,2010/1/8,2011/1/8,2012/1/8,2013/1/8,wind,2013,10% 15%,wind 15% 20%,15x,2013,15% 20%,20%,10% 15%,2013,10%,10% 20%,it,2013q1 a,2013 50%,2013,2013,4,pe,/a,/a,/a,it,/a,/a,/a,76.9 38.8,2.4 1.5,70 38.9,2.5 1.5,72.5 37.4,2.9 1.4,149 38.8,3.7 1.5,135.2 47.6,4.2 2,61.6 41.5,3.4 1.7,(,(,(,(,(,2013,1,15.7,1.1,17.9,1.1,16.5,0.7,9.6,0.8,12.1,0.7,15.1,0.8,2011pe,18.4,1.3,18,1.3,20,1.5,13,0.9,21,1.5,30,2.1,2012pe,e,17.8,1.4,15,1.2,21,1.7,17,1.4,21,1.7,22,1.8,wind,2013,1,29,eps,5,2010,eps 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e,pe 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e,peg,a,(,000501.sz 600858.sh 600697.sh 002187.sz 600859.sh 002277.sz 000417.sz 002419.sz 600828.sh 600729.sh 000987.sz 600723.sh 600778.sh 601010.sh 1833.hk 3308.hk 0848.hk 600827.sh 601933.sh 002251.sz 1025.hk 6808.hk 002024.sz 600122.sh 0493.hk 002344.sz 600415.sh 000061.sz 002574.sz 600315.sh,11.29 9.66 22.17 7.71 23.03 9.98 7.23 11.49 4.84 26.60 11.69 7.67 10.38 13.65 10.3 17.48 1.68 8.67 25.05 23.09 15.44 11.26 7.26 4.11 0.95 27.50 6.79 5.99 15.87 58.64,0.58 0.21 0.83 0.51 0.81 0.39 0.37 0.61 0.24 1.41 0.91 0.36 0.34 0.72 0.47 0.61 0.13 0.17 0.40 0.63 0.52 0.23 0.54 0.22 0.14 0.45 0.30 0.20 0.90 0.61,0.65 0.22 1.02 0.62 1.26 0.52 0.65 0.72 0.34 1.62 1.02 0.53 0.46 0.88 0.52 0.77 0.15 0.81 0.61 0.96 0.56 0.25 0.65 0.18 0.13 0.94 0.24 0.12 1.04 0.81,0.74 0.47 1.23 0.67 1.40 0.64 0.58 0.75 0.36 1.86 1.01 0.59 0.36 0.82 0.61 0.85 0.18 0.68 0.65 1.19 0.59 0.31 0.43 0.19 -0.05 1.25 0.35 0.09 0.48 1.37,0.88 0.72 1.50 0.80 1.74 0.80 0.72 0.92 0.48 2.23 1.14 0.55 0.45 0.93 0.85 1.09 0.17 0.74 0.90 1.65 0.72 0.36 0.48 0.29 -0.05 2.01 0.49 0.14 0.71 1.76,1.11 0.91 1.90 1.00 2.20 0.94 0.88 1.15 0.61 2.78 1.34 0.71 0.66 1.12 0.93 1.40 0.20 0.96 1.26 2.21 0.93 0.42 0.59 0.39 -0.04 2.45 0.60 0.21 0.95 2.36,17 43 22 12 18 19 11 16 14 16 11 15 23 16 20 23 11 11 41 24 28 45 11 23 7 29 29 49 15 73,15 21 18 12 16 16 12 15 13 14 12 13 29 17 17 21 9 13 39 19 26 36 17 22 n.a. 22 19 67 33 43,13 13 15 10 13 12 10 12 10 12 10 14 23 15 12 16 10 12 28 14 21 31 15 14 n.a. 14 14 43 22 33,10 11 12 8 10 11 8 10 8 10 9 11 16 12 11 12 8 9 20 1