热点睿评：食品：问题多多、速解难求-2012-11-20.ppt

1961,1963,1965,1967,1969,1971,1973,1975,1977,1993,1995,1997,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,1979,1981,1983,1985,1987,1989,1991,2,10,0,16,17,股票研究 fortnightly thoughts,2012 年 11 月 15 日,issue 44,2012 食品：问题多多、速解难求 编者按：在本期中我们来探讨全球食品行业在需求持续增长形势下的供应潜力。我们希望寻求 价值链中重要的关键环节并发现创新企业和方案（效率）提供商。我们还采访了 genus 的首席 执行长和雀巢的首席技术官，并甄选出了食品价值链中的十只股票。,在世界面临的诸多难题中，食品挑战似乎是 更为棘手的问题之一。需求增长的规模可以 归结于人口增长（更确切来说是城市化的推 进）。此外，质量问题也不容忽视，因为不 断扩大的全球中产阶层越发注重更高品质的 食品。如何应对这一挑战是我们在本期中着 重探讨的问题：我们来考虑供应链的哪些部 中国农产品贸易逆差显著扩大,分蕴含着解决方案（或潜在解决方案），以 及它们能弥补多大的潜在供需缺口。可能存 在发展机会和投资潜力的领域包括种子（孟 山都、syngenta 和 genus）、酶制剂 （novozymes）以及全球食品生产企业（达 能、好时、联合利华和亿滋）。然而，当我 们将食品供应链与能源供应链进行比较时， 本期导读,我们对供应面前景不再那么乐观，因为食品 供应分散、缺乏协调、而且基础设施、技术 和资金不足。如果剔除通胀后的实际食品价 格继续上涨（可能会如此），那么对于各个 国家可能产生重要影响。粮食美元的重要性 可能会接近石油美元，巴西、美国和加拿大 等国家处于较有利地位。,农产品贸易顺差/逆差，十亿美元 问题多多、速解难求：我们关于食品贸易逆差和,40,china,europe,us,解决方案的开篇,30,访谈：,20,雀巢公司首席技术官 werner j. bauer 博士、 genus 首席执行长 karim bitar,6 8,10 生产率提高前景：richard logan 对农业未来 的看法 -10,-20 -30 -40,重要的创新企业：fulvio cazzol 展望酶制剂发 展空间 寻找最具潜力领域：alexis colom bo 对包装,13 14,食品格局转变的看法 -50 价格上涨趋势：frank walding 如何看待食品,资料来源：联合国粮农组织,零售价格上涨的影响,hugo scott-gall +44 (20) 7774 1917,sumana m anohar, cfa +44 (20) 7051 9677,健康意识提升带动饮食结构改变？ stephen gram bling 对消费习惯变化的观点,高盛国际,高盛国际 * 本文为节选翻译，请参见 1-4 页,发现制药行业的投资机会： m ick readey 和 keyur parekh 讨论全球肥胖 症代价的上升,19,goldman sachs does and seeks to do business w ith companies covered in its research reports. as a result, investors should be aw are that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. for reg ac certification and other important disclosures, see the disclosure appendix, or go to w w w ./research/hedge.html. analysts employed by non-us affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts w ith finra in the u.s.,the goldman sachs group, inc.,goldman sachs global investment research,cerealyield(kgperhectare),logarithmicscale,switzerland,n.zealand,us,belgium,netherlands,norway,denmark,israel,sweden,canada,s.africa,finland,germany,austria,australia,japan,brazil,spain,france,italy,uk,s.korea,thailand,mexico,greece,malaysia,argentina,russia,china,indonesia,kenya,india,nigeria,4.3,4.1,3.9,3.7,3.5,3.3,3.1,2.9,2.7,30 %,20 %,10 %,0%,2,股票研究：fortnightly thoughts 问题多多、速解难求 食品进一步涨价对全球的潜在影响何在？我们将在本文中研究这一 问题。食品为何会涨价？因为需求的增速势必超过供应响应能力。 推高需求的因素众所周知：人口增长、城市化、中产阶级的规模和 口味变化。就经济发展而言，食品价格紧随能源价格大幅上涨，因 为工业化会过渡到消费增长（高收入国家消耗的卡路里比低收入国 家高 30% 左右，但价值差异约为八倍）。我们在此研究供应面可以 做何响应，包括如何寻找解决方案以及供应方。我们将食品业与能 源业进行了类比：能源业在提高效率的问题上大举投资，并通过创 新、集中卓越力量以及资本运作等方式创造出了解决方案，最明显 的例子是可再生能源和页岩气。那么食品业是否会出现类似情形？ 我们很难去想像推动能源业供应面对需求增长做出回应的因素也全 部存在于食品业供应链。食品业的高度分散、缺乏协作、支撑行业 （基础设施）的资金不足、创新较为孤立而且有限。我们认为食品 业供应面可能仍无法与需求增长相匹配，而且速度慢于其他行业。 但事物是不断变化的。那些托马斯马尔萨斯(thomas m althus)理,issue 44 09 年这一幕再度上演。即便只是泛泛翻阅历史资料也不难发现，食 品成本提高可能触发政治动荡（青年失业率过高亦是如此），而且 我们认为西方国家对食品价格对经济的影响有些过度自信：相对于 收入水平来说食品成本看似尚可应付，但当没有缓冲、即储蓄率极 低之时就会出现问题。食品支出在美国家庭总消费支出中的占比为 14% ，较为合理，这一比例在多数欧洲大国和日本为 20% 左右，而 在中国和印度则分别升至约 40%和 45% 。当然，食品支出在总消费 支出中的占比将随工资上升而下降，但这只是在消费提高到一定程 度的情况下才会发生。眼下，印度和中国的人均热量消耗分别为 2,300/2,900 卡路里/天，低于发达经济体约 3,400 卡路里的均值。如 果中国人和印度人的饮食向西方人看齐，那么食品生产必须提高 12% 。如果全世界其他国家的人都像西方人那样吃饭，那么食品增 产幅度需要接近 50% 。 cereal offenders yield versus fertiliser consumption, 2010 or latest,论的反对者永远可以寄希望于人类的创新能力。此外，在审视了供,high income,lat-am,mena,others,south & east asia,sub-saharan africa,应链哪个环节可以涌现创新（第 10 页开始）以及在哪里可以通过工 业化生产（如种子、酶制剂等）持续获取高回报之后，我们需要考 虑食品价格上涨对于宏观/微观经济以及地缘政治的影响。 食品消费下行空间有限 能源价格上涨对需求的影响是否会出现于食品领域？二者之间存在 一些重要差异，令食品供需失衡更难解决。食品消费高度分散，替 代空间较小。改变饮食习惯比调整发电燃料要困难得多，而且食品 a concerning curve percentage of total household expenditure on food, 2010 or latest 70 % 2.5,60 %,0,200,400,600,800,1,000,1,200,fertilizer consumption (kilograms per hectare of arable land),50 % 40 % source: economist intelligence unit. 支出的自由度不如能源，就是说进行高效消费的空间比较有限，而 且消费者不会且不能主动推迟消费，更不用说进行结构性削减了。 这意味着食品价格上涨（特别是就食品在居民消费中占比较高的经 济体而言）将导致可选消费减少或偿债能力下降（从而影响到资产 价格）。70 年代末油价飙升之时，美国消费者需将收入的约 9%用 于能源消费，而之前十年的均值为 7% 。此外，美国人的总储蓄率上 升了约 2% ，因为他们做出了削减其他项目支出的过度反应。2007- goldman sachs global investment research,source: world bank. 非洲食品之争 从资源拥有量来看，食品和能源一样，可分为拥有者和匮乏者两类。 尽管的确存在资源匮乏却成功的国家，但显然先天优势（如土壤肥 沃、气候适宜、水质优良等）会对生活品质大有帮助。诚然，这仅 仅是成功的一半；其它成功的前提还包括组织、资本、教育和合作 等因素。以非洲为例，它拥有世界上 60% 的未耕种土地、令人称羡 的人口结构以及丰富的水资源（尽管分布不均）。只需凭借基本的 基础设施、对农田的整合、少量使用化肥及农作物保护，非洲的农 业产量即可能创造奇迹。但是，知易行难。多个非洲经济体还需在 获得信息、教育、产权保护、市场渠道和资金方面得到改善。换而 言之，非洲需要更好的机制。如果未来几十年非洲在这些方面取得 成功，则食品价格的上涨将改变该地区的投资格局。下一场非洲之 争的主角将是食品（目前是硬大宗商品，19 世纪末是帝国疆域）。 化肥用量对产量的影响是逐渐递减的，但是非洲（与其它一些发展 中经济体一样） 还远未触及上限。目前，非洲仅占全球农产品贸易 的 3% ，其中南非和科特迪瓦共占到整个非洲农产品出口的三分之一。 如果全球要避免饥荒，则非洲需要成为农业发展的新动力所在。,3,股票研究：fortnightly thoughts the haves and the have nots which countries are short of w hat? total trade value by region and food category; per capita surplus/(deficit) by country and sub-category in us$.,issue 44,world ag trade,cereals and rice $154 bn,fodder $54 bn,meat $106 bn,veg, fruits $178 bn,beverages & tobacco $113 bn,dairy $67 bn,others $406 bn,$1.08 tn,% of total food trade,14%,5%,10%,17%,10%,6%,38%,% of category,26%,24%,19%,15%,13%,33%,33%,27%,25%,21%,30%,7%,58%,38%,14%,7%,5%,(7% of global trade),total surplus/(deficit) per capita,soya- beans,wheat,sugar,maize,rice,fodder,pig meat,bovine poultry meat meat,veg & fruits,wine,coffee tobacco,cocoa beans,milk,cheese etc.,oil seeds,palm oil,choco- late,n. america,95,usa,59.1,20.0,(6.1),31.5,5.6,24.9,10.8,2.0,12.4,(17.4),(10.9),(12.8),0.7,(3.9),4.7,(1.0),61.0,(2.4),(2.3),$154 bn 14%,221 canada (29) mexico,37.1 (14.0),135.1 (6.6),(20.2) 3.1,(2.6) (12.6),(9.1) (2.8),(2.6) (8.3),50.7 (7.8),12.3 (5.2),(6.1) (7.5),(80.6) 52.5,(49.5) (1.4),(19.2) 2.9,0.5 1.0,(4.4) (0.4),(1.9) (7.8),(5.6) (2.8),140.6 (23.3),(2.3) (2.8),3.9 1.6,(463),uk,(6.3),7.3,(7.0),(4.0),(7.7),(24.2),(41.1),(15.8),(30.9),(167.5),(59.4),(8.4),(15.7),(4.8),(9.0),(22.2),(9.0),(5.4),(15.1),eu $442 bn 41%,(125) 1799 207 (108) 161,germany nether. france italy spain,(17.9) (60.0) (3.6) (10.2) (30.0),15.3 (64.0) 73.8 (27.7) (19.8),4.2 4.8 18.3 (13.3) (8.9),(4.8) (37.2) 25.1 (7.2) (19.3),(2.6) (2.8) (5.6) 9.3 3.0,(1.6) 82.8 (0.6) (24.4) (15.8),31.9 100.4 (4.0) (18.6) 58.7,3.3 55.9 (5.5) (35.8) (5.9),(5.1) 74.3 5.6 4.0 (4.6),(153.3) 333.9 (84.0) 50.3 239.1,(19.1) (59.1) 122.1 83.7 51.7,(19.5) (15.3) (21.8) (5.8) (12.6),30.7 162.3 (23.4) (43.8) (34.7),(13.5) (95.5) (7.6) (4.5) (5.6),25.7 78.6 24.0 (37.3) (7.8),6.6 142.9 34.0 3.4 (17.7),(33.9) (105.3) 1.6 (14.0) (35.1),(11.5) (18.3) (4.6) (12.2) (11.5),21.6 26.7 (5.1) 12.7 (4.8),(114),egypt,(9.6),(31.8),(6.4),(15.6),1.4,(3.9),(7.4),(2.7),7.8,(0.6),(6.2),(10.2),(14.6),africa,23,s. africa,1.0,(4.7),3.8,5.9,(7.9),(9.0),(1.0),0.3,(3.8),46.2,15.2,(1.2),0.5,(0.5),(0.5),1.2,(5.9),0.6,$35 bn,35,kenya,(5.6),(4.1),(1.5),(2.5),(0.5),9.6,4.7,1.8,(0.3),(9.1),3%,(28),nigeria,(6.6),(4.1),(5.2),(0.5),(0.9),(0.4),(0.5),4.2,0.8,(6.2),221,cte divoire,(6.4),(23.1),9.2,(0.4),(0.6),14.9,(1.6),8.6,(2.7),125.6,0.5,3.9,6.2,267,thailand,(11.7),(7.4),31.5,1.3,76.6,(10.9),0.8,26.4,35.7,(0.3),(0.5),(1.1),(4.5),(0.5),(12.5),1.6,(0.7),8,india,0.4,1.9,1.6,1.4,0.7,0.7,(2.8),asia,(310),s. korea,(11.9),(22.6),(12.9),(41.3),(5.0),(35.8),(14.6),(22.4),(3.9),(32.4),(2.3),(7.4),3.4,(0.3),(3.8),(5.4),(16.3),(4.9),(3.1),$217 bn,76,indonesia,(3.5),(6.9),(4.6),(1.5),(1.5),(6.1),(1.2),(2.4),3.2,0.8,4.6,(4.4),56.0,20%,(33),china,(19.0),(0.4),(0.7),(1.0),0.3,(0.3),7.8,(0.6),(19.6),(3.5),s. america,(400) 417 770,japan malaysia argentina,(14.5) (10.9) 123.4,(12.7) (13.2) 29.5,(5.5) (22.0) 3.5,(31.3) (27.0) 77.2,(3.9) (17.6) 5.7,(26.2) (18.6) 215.3,(42.2) (0.4) (3.0),(18.4) (10.2) 30.3,(21.5) (1.2) 9.2,(60.2) (30.6) 61.6,(9.3) (0.7) 17.9,(11.0) (3.6) (2.0),(28.9) (1.7) 6.2,(1.3) (31.2),(1.9) (13.7) 17.6,(7.4) (2.1) 4.4,(26.3) (12.8) 130.8,(4.1) 398.5,(3.6) 0.6 2.5,$125 bn,271,brazil,56.4,(8.8),65.5,11.0,(1.2),24.8,7.2,21.7,34.3,5.2,(1.3),26.6,13.8,(0.8),(0.6),(0.5),56.5,(0.6),12%,(182),russia,(3.4),14.6,(8.5),(4.3),(13.9),(15.2),(6.2),(62.6),(6.5),(2.2),(5.8),(1.5),(3.7),(8.9),(4.8),(4.7),(2.3),r.o.w $105 bn,(490) 786,s. arabia australia,(6.1),(16.4) 174.6,(23.2) 62.6,(17.2),(47.5) (5.5),(12.8) 18.6,(15.0),(12.0) 181.3,(46.9),(49.4) 1.1,67.6,(4.9) (11.0),(25.3) (5.3),(15.5) 49.7,(5.7) 13.8,(8.7) 22.2,(12.6) (4.3),(10.4) (6.2),source: fao.,提升生产曲线的还有中国。为了追求粮食的自给自足，中国农业生 产日渐工业化。在过去十年中，农用机械的用电量几近翻番，而每 户拥有的拖拉机数量也增加了两倍，这推动每亩产量平均增长 20% 以上。我们在本文第 8 页对 genus 公司首席执行长的访谈中也描绘 了类似的动物产量趋势。即便如此，在过去仅仅十年的时间里，中 国在一些肉类、蔬菜类和谷物类食品方面的进出口贸易均从顺差转 为逆差。因此，要实现食品自给仍任重而道远，水资源的匮乏也成 为了紧迫的问题，尤其是在一些边远地区。 草原的力量 由于在大豆、玉米、肉类和油料种子方面存在高额贸易顺差，巴西 和阿根廷的食品贸易额远居拉美大陆前列。目前两国的贸易顺差分 别是 2000 年水平的 6 倍和 3 倍（而 2000-2010 年仅增长 30% ）， 且仍在扩大。出口增长的一大障碍是基础设施。食物需长途辗转才 能到达港口，随后再运至其它市场。40 天时间对于将铁矿石从巴西 到中国也许是可以接受的，但对易腐烂的食物这个时间却阻碍了其 出口。因此，市场需要可在耐久、包装、冷藏和加工方面提供解决 方案的供应商。此外，尽管拉丁美洲经济体在农业上的成功很大程 度上可归功于自然条件的优越，但它们也从农业创新中获益良多。 例如，拉美有超过三分之一的农作物种子为转基因种子，而在美国 这个比例超过 45% ，亚洲约为 12% 。转基因农作物并非新事物，它 们解决了农业产量最常见的一些制约因素（抵抗不利自然条件的能 力，包括抗旱以及更有效吸收土壤养分、肥料和水），或者是可强 化农产品营养成分以及延长农作物的储藏时间等。尽管采用转基因 goldman sachs global investment research,作物和种子的意愿远称不上强烈，尤其是在欧洲，但它无疑为那些 将面临更严重食品短缺国家提供了一些重要的解决方案。 欧洲的食品贸易逆差/顺差 欧洲的逆差/顺差状况是个有趣的现象。在 27 个欧盟国家中有 17 个 面临食品贸易逆差，但整个欧盟在 2010 年（勉强）实现了顺差，这 是过去 50 年来的第二次（参见图表）。进一步细分来看，英国是最 大的食品进口国，其次是德国和意大利，而荷兰和法国的出口则领 先其他国家，这要归功于两国极具规模的加工产业。如果欧洲未来 面临相对的经济下行趋势，那么在争夺稀缺食品资源时可能会面临 购买力下降的不利局面。因此，欧洲需要动用所有富有创造力的解 决方案，否则将不得不加大进口替代。值得注意的是，在总体顺差 或逆差的掩盖之下存在各品类表现不一的情况：欧洲是牛肉、水果 蔬菜和玉米的净进口地区，而出口则尤其集中在酒精饮料和红酒方 面。日本的状况极具挑战性：它是唯一一个在上图所有食品分类中 均为逆差的国家。 我们最后关注北美。大规模生产、市场进入机会、创新摇篮以及监 管政策有利意味着美国（和加拿大）将在部分关键农产品领域（如 大豆、玉米、饲料、小麦和油籽）继续占据主导地位。将这一自给 自足与中期能源自给前景以及相对较好的人口状况（好于中国）结 合起来看，对美国更乐观的预测（相对西方和亚洲部分地区而言） 开始变得清晰起来。,soyabeans,soyabeans,soyabeans,indonesia,canada,n.zealand,argentina,australia,france,brazil,us,malaysiapalmoil,thailandrubber,india,vietnam,20%,15%,10%,5%,0%,editor,tel:,4,股票研究：fortnightly thoughts,issue 44,the food value chain winners in the food supply chain from gs coverage. black europe, blue other developed m arkets, grey em erging m arkets; bold on conviction buy list or gs sustain focus list,syngenta monsanto genus basf,seeds soil labour,tools machinery protection,water land capital,kubota ag bank of china incitec arab potash,potash,cherkizovo united phosp. china bluechem novozymes croda linde china foods juhayna, halwani intertek, sgs coca-cola hbc domino printing mayr-melnholf , devro viscof an, smurf it,agriculture traders processing / manufacturing storage packaging printing waste testing,olam intl. noble group indof ood ag remy, pernod, l-p sab miller, diageo monster, constellation bat, c&c, kt&g japan tobacco, itc mondelez, coca-cola unilever, danone jmsmucker, hershey want-want, campbell,casino jeronimo martins booker dollar tree, wal-mart sun-art, magnit okey, x5,distribution retailers cash & carry online grocers,consumption households dining out catering,whitbread dominos pizza bloomin brands darden, starbucks compass edenred, sodexo,source: goldman sachs research.,粮食美元兴起 在结束本文之前，我们需对食品价格上涨的地缘政治和宏观经济影 响作出简要阐述。为了保证食品供应，各国采取的措施可能日益具 有战略眼光，因此贸易保护措施（如高额出口关税）可能大大增多。 各国还有可能通过特殊的双边协议以确保稳定可靠的食品供应。这 显然可能破坏 wto 所支持体系的完整性。还有一个结果可能是出现 粮食美元，正如上世纪 70 年代的石油美元一样。粮食美元距离我们 似乎还很遥远（全球能源出口的价值为 2.3 万亿美元，而全球粮食出 口价值为 1.08 万亿美元），但其后果值得思考。出口大国尤其 是那些有能力扩大产出的国家可能获得持续顺差，这些顺差可以再 投入到其经济体之中（或被社会中的少部分人攫取）。同样，作为 粮食净进口国实际上相当于征收了一笔消费税：如果油价为 25 美元/ 桶，美国可支配收入将大大提高。 如前所述，我们预计实际食品价格大幅上涨的最大受益者将包括巴 西、美国和加拿大，而日本、韩国和英国将面临挑战。本报告第一 页的图表十分关键：看看中国的顺差如何转变为逆差。如果中国的 中产阶层如预期般迅速扩大将发生什么？这正是难点所在；从食品 重要性上来看，我们已经习以为常的状况即将改变。食品在全球的 流动方式可能发生改变，而货币在全球的流通可能受到波及。可投 资领域可能会较我们的预期有所拓宽，当然不是所有人都是赢家。,chinese takeaw ay chinas largest food import partners (including major food import), 2010 25% source: fao hugo scott-gall,但在我们看来，那些拥有解决方案的股票值得投资，但还要取决于 其估值状况。,email:, +44-20-7774-1916,goldman sachs international,goldman sachs global investment research,sweden,canada,netherlands,portugal,kenya,japan,switzerland,indonesia,belgium,germany,greece,finland,argentina,mexico,russia,spain,denmark,thailand,france,austria,s.korea,australia,china,india,s.africa,nigeria,brazil,us,uk,italy,us,canada,germany,argentina,newzealand,mexico,japan,france,russia,spain,australia,ukraine,eu-27,china,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,brazil,india,uk,10,9,8,6,1,5,equity research: fortnightly thoughts six nuggets quality issues share of non-starchy (higher-quality) food in diet, 2010 or latest,less space indexed food demand and arable land supply,issue 44,80 %,food,feed,fuel,arable land per capita (ha/person),115 70 %,60 % 50 %,110 105,40 % 100 30 % 95 20 % 90,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,source: economist intelligence unit. the midwest farmers daughter is elsewhere us farmers by age, 2011,source: oecd, fao, goldman sachs research. moo-ing up the curve milk production per cow per year, tonnes,younger than 25, 2% 25-34, 6% 7,older than 65, 25% 55-64, 26%,35-44, 14% 45-54, 27%,5 4 3 2 0,source: usda. a paradigm shift world price index 250,source: usda, eurostat, goldman sachs research estimates. two types of fuelling difference between food and energy as a % of total imports 20 %,maize,rice,soyabean,beef,225,2000,2005,2010,10 % 200,175 150 125 100 75 50,0% -10 % -20 % -30 %,25 -40 %,russia,eu,china,brazil,us,japan,s. korea,india,source: imf. goldman sachs global investment research,source: wto.,years?,now.,6,equity research: fortnightly thoughts,issue 44,interview with.dr. werner j. bauer prof. dr. ing. werner bauer is the chief technology officer for nestl s.a. as cto, mr. bauer directs the companys innovation, technology, research and development strategy, and is responsible for its implementation. werner bauer joined nestl in 1990, spending the first six years as head of the nestl research center in lausanne. his responsibilities were then extended, and he became head of nestl research and development worldwide until 1998. mr bauer spent the next four years in africa, initially as technical manager, and then as commercial director of nestls southern and eastern africa region. he returned to switzerland in 2002 to serve as a member of nestls executive board, first as head of technical, production, environment, research and development, and since 2007 in his present function as executive vice president, chief technology officer, head of innovation, technology, research and development.,hugo scott-gall: how can food play a role in well being, both in preventing disease and helping to treat disease? werner bauer: we believe that proper nutrition is an effective way of helping to maintain health and delay or modify the course of some chronic diseases. a more targeted nutrition that takes into account the complex causes of these chronic diseases requires a deep understanding of human health, and the path to illness, right down to the molecular level. this is why we have established the nestl institute of health sciences, which has already established a leading edge capability in new technologies in molecular biology. the institute is focusing on areas where nutrition and lifestyle can have a beneficial impact on health outcomes, such as in the area of brain health (e.g., cognitive decline, alzheimers disease), metabolic health (e.g., obesity, diabetes) and gastro-intestinal health (e.g., inflammatory bowel disease). the ultimate benefit.should be nutrition that is better targeted to provide specific health benefits, and which is a safer approach than using pharmaceuticals hugo scott-gall: is this still very new? werner bauer: were at the beginning. we believe that now is the right time to begin such an approach to nutrition because we now have new “omics technologies” such as deep genome sequencing, proteomics, metabolomics and the analysis of the microbiome. these technologies are providing new data and new insights about nutrition and health. this approach offers the potential to really expand the role of nutrition for promoting health and managing the course of disease. the ultimate benefit of this should be nutrition that is better targeted to provide specific health benefits, and which is a safer approach than using pharmaceuticals.,hugo scott-gall: how are you having to adapt your r&d approach given the heterogeneity of eating habits across the world? werner bauer: our consumer insights tell us that eating habits are not heterogeneous across the world. our r&d organisation is set up so that we develop technologies globally, but apply them locally to suit local needs and preferences. we have four centres that work on basic research: r&d tours for plant sciences, the nestl institute of health sciences, nestl research center, and clinical development unit, the nestl institute of health sciences provides the scientific base for personalised nutrition solutions for medical conditions. the nestl research center provides the scientific base for the innovation pipeline of nestl businesses. our clinical development unit brings the management of our100+ clinical trials under one roof. it also provides medical expertise in different therapeutic areas, and provides specialist knowhow in project management, data management and bio statistics. in addition to our basic research facilities, we have a further 29 product technology centres (ptcs) and r&d centres worldwide. our ptcs provide a critical mass of technology expertise and product knowledge for one or more of nestls business categories, worldwide. our research & development centres have both a global role and a more local role, meeting regional needs or providing know-how in specific areas of technical expertise. for example, the work at our r&d units in china includes developing culinary products for china, and the region. this involves understanding chinese culture and its culinary tradition. our global r&d organisation is supported by over 300 application groups in the markets, which adapt products to local consumer needs and preferences. hugo scott-gall: is there going to be convergence between pharma and food? will nestle loo