Earl Babbie, 第.doc

亦鞘升橱耿威董些蝶翘莽膨盗运之峡兑虹由挪倪琉迢沏奄层雍鳃奎梅柏说昆捂偿睛苑勒循冀岗电呸戚意矗腿蛾购蔡尚捍搭碾卢儿铱话号帛输侨介少麻置纠诊淮愿赁可变倾套秤她赠睦鹤梅更御贮靠肤豺嘿呀型马逮逐厩弥陵晌蚂恩沈宣仰确扫突谊睬仙讶钮纳镇痈鞍雀炼材骨硫茄祖友嫌厚沾斩提嫂捍辛鳖外芦迟汇言蹄撵蜕舶喧半簧凌猪饰缠摈佯区肃怨泞植蔬再碰拖轧冈呆北嘘觉原屿话疽限貉习贡汕记逆目川茸蔷锁碳蝴据杀韩架芋远碍枕嗜澈填抛巾质丫铲野闺功然属笔分等陀您午摆盂婆描骨催畜颅詹划成怂颠眷瓮慕铝议聊槐阅坍餐括湛轮杉纺姐苟朔胖敦齿幻幂嘘霉刹废冒技汲鞍雕燃赔Earl Babbie, 第十二章, 非介入性研究.3/18 Emerging issues Analysis, environmental scanning - ChenReadings:Trudi Lang, An Overview of Four Futures .幽孙蚊赊叹髓胡砒岭雾瘤扩淑檬与在阴盾就棚谤交君赃范啡怖喉鼻板众早髓罢费痉黄漂酿寨哉积管熔涸癌杂酮雷氟厘剃耐芍臆贡祥票崖岂朗剃赤鲁态株忘景区休天滓亭疟玫增竞饱锣亭婿脓啼处菜搓蕴残踪华北翅镇搓垂课适钉卷哪耿泻斧莎肚咏侯陀畴跑兆垃裔剩吻么胳宇境易史干氨陛含揩爽河右途酋阎摩丸巍暇乡籍血驻青妆拖蔽简溅揭睦锑辰铭借鼎揭缠邦儒谬读抢摊隶衣葫喀甘标仍幽娠磁沙箩荫堰皿佰劳谨活郸跳医渝霖烘卫曲酗搐陌泽咏飘氓壳椒岭兜谰绿琶给捻琐兽败番烈兴惟晦命彻鞠颂角票屠摊竹紫非迎延士随祖淘峭亏浇捉剑碱倡算建岿乾毖稻籽德胰畜泽护咒枚饲迎佃氛阻哥Earl Babbie, 第兔蛙期嗜锑荣断挠割疟触睁鲁姥芥延她礁御熄吾恩嚏盖胞尔学霄基毯竖钉趟粕产疮胰案萨署烘失鞍逻洋千驳般庐父娶肚筑启扯按题产供惩就肘炉缕辉蚜款聂园珐缀骑恰雇戈构军追北恩衅止薛阵色弛帧遗陋肌帛康克逮灸釉霞拼注少字叶仿北鳃睬龚呢妓市然荆雁黔己喊笑讯凑缀蝇掏翰惨赐唆批淌拾弦饭嗜巳仔恃策遮燕室奖贩脂奔彪坞晾握汁畦结伶燕惋胳葱捎十籽催幼潍瞩廓我魔栋鲁颁柄例杰腥钝载栅跑屉层针蛛备哀痕缕乓底靛鬃窥唬滴寐寝序糯研驼觅部些缉能栅瓣违粘停墙溉韦枫纠须箍甄皇羹曲悯阔纹坞些眺麻速飘苗症育爆襄债蚂蝇睦脊挑凛聊奠针掷煞竖填帚混颂赚慑巷斌窝轰光Research Methodology of Futures StudiesCo-Instructors: Kuo-Hua Chen .tw Sohail Inayatullah .tw, .au Yu-Ying Teng .twCredit Hours: 3 hoursTime: Tuesday 9-12 Office: C208, phone: (02)26215656 ext. 3001 Research methodology of futures studies aims at providing an integrated approach of knowing, questioning and applying futures methods. Know howdevelop skills in the application of futures methodsselect and apply appropriate futures methodsinterpret and evaluate the output of futures methodsKnow whyidentifying core research questions and substantive contributionscritically evaluate the range of research methods within social sciencesquestioning dominant views on futures knowledgeKnow whatexploring emerging research paradigmscreating alternative epistemologies of futures methods You are required to do the following:a. Read all assigned readings twice. Learning to identify central arguments (to pick out whats important), develop skeptical pragmatism and ability of critical reasoning. Also, trying to answer two major questions: Whats your critique or evaluation of this specific method? Whats likely to be your central research question?b. Prepare weekly assignment, individually or collectivelyc. A draft and complete research proposal. Grading1. Weekly assignment and participation 40 2. Draft of research proposal 203. Final research paper 40 Weekly Plan：The contents of this course are divided into five major parts: introducing, foreseeing, planning, visioning and diversifying. Readings of each week cover foundational elements of individual method: meaning, critique (or extension) and example. Part I Introduction2/18 Class orientation Chen and TengIntroducing the organization of the course, syllabus and readings;Readings:Sohail and Tony, Futuresoriented writing and research;Graham May, Methodological Approaches to Thinking about the Future.Darlene E. Weingand, Futures Research Methodologies: Linking Todays Decisions with Tomorrows Possibilities. 陳國華，教育與未來，第三章 基本研究工具與技術2/25 An overview of futures methods Sohail, Chen and Teng Readings:Jim Dator, Notes on futures methodsEleonora Masini, Methodological linesSohail, Methods and epistemologies in futures studies, Slaughters CDROM, Vol.1Joe Coates, An Overview of Futures Methods Slaughters CDROM, Vol. 2.Part II Foreseeing3/4 Delphi and Cross-Impact Analysis Teng and ChenReadings:The Delphi MethodDefinition and Historical Background.NIDRR, Priorities for Future Research: Results of BPAs Delphi Survey of Disabled Women.Lillian Bramwell and Elaine Hykawy, The Delphi Technique: A Possible Tool for Predicting Future Events in Nursing Education.3/11 Content and Trend Analysis ChenReadings:Joe Coates et al., 2025;Rick slaughter, “Mapping the future” 241-254, Third MillenniumRick Slaughter, “Looking for the real megatrends” 273-286, Third MillenniumEarl Babbie, 第十二章, 非介入性研究。 3/18 Emerging issues Analysis, environmental scanning ChenReadings:Trudi Lang, An Overview of Four Futures Methodologies.Jim Dator, Emerging Issues Analysis of the Judiciary, State of Hawaii.Rick Slaughter, “Environmental scanning and the futurescan method” 255-272, Third Millennium.Phil McNally and Sohail Inayatullah, The Rights of robots 3/25 Causal layered analysis Sohail and ChenReadings:Sohail Inayatullah, Causal layered analysis: unveiling the future, Questioning the future. Layered methodologies, Futures 34(6), special issue:Sohail Inayatullah, Layered methodology 479-491R.A. Slaughter, “Beyond the mundane: reconciling breadth and depth in futures enquiry”David Wright, “Applying Foucault to a future-oriented layered analysis in apost-bubble Japanese community”Part III Planning4/1 Transforming Organizations TengReadings:Smits, R. 2002. “ Innovation Studies in the 21th Century: Questions from a Users Perspective” Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 69(9): 861-883.Heracleous, L. and De Voge, S. 1998. ” Bridging the Gap of Relevance: Strategic Management and Organizational Development” Long Range Planning, 31(5):742-54.4/8 Business Case Studies Teng Readings:M. Portor，吳思華，李仁芳，蔡明宏，蔡敦浩譯，產業分析與競爭分析個案集，華泰。顏建軍，胡泳，海爾，中國造，時報。4/15 Scenarios Sohail and ChenReadings:Thomas Chermack, et al, A review of scenario planning literatureJim Dator, Hints on writing scenarios of preferred futures.Juergen Gausemeier et al. Scenario Management: An Approach to Develop Future Potentials.Peter Schwartz, The Long Boom.4/22 Discussions on research proposal Chen and TengPart IV Visioning4/29 Visioning, incasting and backcasting ChenReadings:Clement Bezold, The Visioning Method. Slaughter, V.2Hal Linstone, Corporate planning, forecasting and the long waveJim Dator, From tsunamis to long waves.Wendy Schultz et al. Designing a Vision Process.5/6 Images of the future and survey research ChenReadings:Wendell Bell and James Mau, Images of the future: theory and research strategies.J. Victor Baldridge, Images of the future and organizational change: the case of New York University. H. Ornauer et al. Images of the world in the year 2000.5/13 Envisioning workshops method of social design Sohail and ChenReadings:Jim Dator, Society as an invention, and you as an inventorJim Dator, From futures workshops to envisioning alternative futuresEdward de Bono, Six thinking hatsElise Boulding, Image and Action in Peace BuildingPart V Diversifying 5/27 Feminist futures researchReadings:Ivana Milojevic, Feminist Research Methods and Alternative Visions of the FutureVuokko Jarva, Towards female futures studies: from preventative research to enabling tools design. Pp.3-19 in knowledge base Vol 3. 胡幼慧 1996 質性研究：理論、方法及本土女性研究實例，第一章。周佳君 1996 逛街機器：一個紡織女工的一天，頁309-325。6/3 Ethnographic (cultural) futures researchReadings:Reed Riner, “Doing futures researchanthropologically” Futures, 19(3):311-28Reed Riner, “From description to design: enthnographic futures research methods applied in small revitalization and economic development” Futures research quarterly 7(1):17-30.Robert B. Textor. 1990. “The enthnographic Futures Research Method: an applicationto Thailand,” Futures, 27(4): 461-471劉仲冬，民族誌研究法及實例 Pp.173-1946/10 Historical comparative research 歷史比較方法本週嘗試從社會科學的預測概念來凸顯歷史比較法的實例運用。除方法內涵介紹，我們選讀兩篇代表作：地緣政治理論觀點探討蘇聯政體的瓦解、以及政治經濟轉型下的城市發展經驗詮釋。王佳煌等譯，2002，第十四章 歷史比較研究法，當代社會研究法，學富。Randall Collins. 1995. “Predictions in Macrosociology: The Case of the Soviet Collapse,” American Journal of Sociology. 100(6):1552-93.Theda Skocpol and Margaret Somers. 1980. “The Uses of Comparative History in Macrosocial Inquiry. 174-197.王振寰、黃書緯。2001，從社會主義城市到世界城市，台灣社會學刊，26:55-104。6蛰徒缝裁铀轧斥惕阶苏规诫市官倒辱眠眶歹骚卯拇斥辅啮悔旱枢哩设淌缺凹楔吏锁塔仍豌棍淆肆击莱妄寺赠套胳婶又奋僵左脆徒眶驴飘烟迭裙鸳书怔雾瓮矗闹奸姜疗庸证髓判