综合检索报告姜珊红0921040306.doc

综合检索报告 -人民币升值对我国的影响 the effect of RMB appreciation on China姓名 姜 珊 红 班级 09 国贸03 学号 0921040306 一、检索策略1、检索词：主题词:（中文）人民币升值、影响（英文）RMB appreciation、effect相关词：（中文） 人民币汇率（英文）RMB exchange rate副主题词：（中文）人民币升值（英文）RMB appreciation 2、构造检索式（布尔逻辑表达式或网络检索式）时间：从“2007”到“2012”题名：“人民币升值”并含“影响”二、检索来源（本文所查数据库名或其它来源）清华数据库、维普数据库、万方数据库、EBSCO、Springer、书生电子图书、超星电子图书、谷歌图书三、检索结果：1、中文期刊（5篇）（1）篇名：浅谈人民币升值对农产品贸易的影响（全文）作者：程博文献来源：知识经济-2012年3期【摘 要】人民币升值与我 国进 出口贸易流量的关系是弱相关的，即我国的对外贸易的发展不是单纯由汇率水平决定的。它受许多因素的制约，如对外贸易政策，财政政策，还有企业的竞争力及营销战略，以及贸易伙伴 国的贸易政策及世界经济的发展状况等等。本文将探讨人民币升值对农产品贸易的影响。（2）篇名：人民币升值对我国制造业的影响及对策分析（全文）作者：彭惠琴文献来源：对外经贸-2012年2期【摘 要】近期人民币持续升值主要是由于发达国家施压、我国巨额外汇储备以及我国经济持续快速增长等原因，通过分析人民币升值对我国制造业产生的正负效应，提 出出口企业应选择合理的金融衍生工具、积极扩大国内市场份额，政府应建立健全相关政策，以提高我国制造业应对汇率波动的能力，提升国际竞争力，促进制造业的有序、健康发展。（3）篇名：人民币升值对我国进出口贸易的影响（全文）作者：庄声浩文献来源：企业家天地：下旬刊-2012年1期【摘 要】近年来人民币对美元汇率持续走高，人民币汇率问题日渐成为国际经济的焦点问题。人民币升值对我国经济既带来了积极影响，同时也有负面作用。但总体来说利大于弊。同时根据分析结果，提出相应的建议 。（4）篇名：浅谈人民币升值对我国经济的影响及对策（全文）作者：孙 萍文献来源：商场现代化-2012年6期【摘 要】在中国经济长期稳定增长和巨额国际贸易顺差等因素的推动下，人民币持续升值，尤其在2008年世界金融危机以后。人民币汇率更是屡创历史新高。人民币升值在一定程度上对我国的经济与社会发展起到了积极作用，但同时也带来了许多负面影响和冲击。本文分析了人民币升值的利与弊，并在此基础上提出了相关应对策略 。（5）篇名：论人民币升值对外贸企业影响及对策（全文）作者：朱 倩文献来源：市场周刊：理论研究-2011年10期【摘 要】 近几年，人民币对外升值对内贬值，CPI节节攀高，热钱不断涌入，劳动力成本提高，这些都在拷问着我国当前的经济格局。政府、经济机构、企业以及一些有识之士都在密切关注献计献策，作为受人 民币升值冲击较大的外贸企业如何应对，关系着企业的生存和发展，如何在经济浪潮中屹立不败，发展壮大，确实需要我们深思。2、外文期刊（5篇）（1）Title：How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect Chinas Exports?（ Full Text Available）Author：Thorbecke;Willem;Gordon SmithSource：Review of International Economics2010, 18(01)【Abstract】Chinas global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007. Many argue that a renminbi appreciation would help to rebalance Chinas trade. Using a panel dataset including Chinas exports to 33 countries we find that a 10% renminbi (RMB) appreciation would reduce ordinary exports by 12% and processed exports by less than 4%. A 10% appreciation of all other East Asian currencies would reduce processed exports by 6%. A 10% appreciation throughout the region would reduce processed exports by 10%. Since ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports are very sophisticated, capital-intensive goods, a generalized appreciation in East Asia would generate more expenditure-switching towards US and an European goods and contribute more to resolving global imbalances than an appreciation of the RMB or of other Asian currencies alone.（2）Title：Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation （Full Text Available）Author：Sung Yeung Kwack ；Choong Y. Ahn ；Young S. LeeSource：Journal of Asian economics 2007, 18(2)【Abstract】Import demand equations for 30 industrial and Asian countries are an estimated using cross-country panel data for the period from 1984 to 2003. Income, price, transportation cost, language, location and other any gravity-type variables are found to be highly significant. The income elasticity estimates range from 1.05 to 3.10. The income elasticity of U.S. imports is higher than the income elasticity estimates of U.S. major trading countries, such as Germany and Asian countries. This income a elasticity difference indicates the need for a trend real depreciation of the U.S. dollar to prevent the U.S. trade deficit from expanding a excessively. The price elasticity estimates are between 0.4 and 1.2. The price elasticity estimate of Chinas import demand is 0.5, whereas the export-share-weighted average of the price elasticities of 29 foreign import demands is 0.7. RMB appreciation is found to lower Chinas trade balances with 29 industrial and Asian countries. While the reduction in Chinas trade balance is expected to be substantial with Germany, Japan and Asian tigers, it will be small with the United States.（3）Title：Chinese RMB exchange rate and local currency price stability in ASEAN tradeAuthor：XiaoBing FENG ；Ilan ALONSource：China economic review 2007, 18(4)【Abstract】The article uses trade data between China and ASEAN countries to test hypotheses related to pricing to market (PTM) and consequent local currency price stability (LCPS). The degree of price discrimination associated with real RMB exchange rate changes between China and ASEAN+2 shows evidence of local currency price stability in some industries in which exporters may be less competitive. Chinas trade policy may have also played a role in the local currency price stability. The article finds no evidence that RMB appreciation creates a larger impact on price adjustment than RMB depreciation.（4）Title：Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industriesAuthor：Jan P. Voon ；Li Guangzhong ；Jimmy Ran Source：Applied Economics 2006, 38(15)【Abstract】This study attempts to examine the impacts of Real Exchange Rate (RER) misalignment on Chinas export performance. Using the SUR methodology coupled with disaggregate panel export data, it shows that Chinas export sector may not necessarily lose from the Central Governments decision to revalue its RMB against the US dollar because the negative impact of the RER appreciation on Chinese exports may be diluted by the positive impacts attributing to a reduction in the RER misalignment.（5）Title：RMB appreciation and Textiles IndustryAuthor：Zhong Weike. Source：China Chemical Reporter 2007, 17(22)【Abstract】Besides the football worldcup,the hottest topic discussed in the economic cycle of China in July may be the projection on RMB appreciation.Pressure became sensitive when the government announced that the GDP growth rate reached 10.9% in the first half of this year,comparing with 10% in the same period of 2005.On July 21st,2005 the RMB/USD rate was increased by 2.5%.Foreign exchange storage amount also augmented US130 billion compared with the same day in 2005,at then the RMB revalued.An official of supervision department repeated the view that the overheated investment picked up and caused the undue growth.Some experts suggest that the government should promote the importation and expand the change range of RMB/USD rate,or let RMB appreciate again after one year later,and RMB should not peg to the USD that has been going soft.3、学位论文（中外文各找2篇）（1）篇名：人民币升值对我国宏观经济的影响分析作者：牛海涛学位授予单位： 东北财经大学【摘 要】自从2005年7月21日，中国的汇率制度调整为以市场供求为基础的、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度以来，已经过了将近两年时间。在这两年时间里，人民币对美元表现为单向升值，截至2007年6月末，人民币兑美元汇率为76155人民币/美元，较2005年汇改后的811人民币美元累计升幅超过6。在整个国民经济中，汇率只是国民经济发展的一个变量，但是在当今开放经济条件下，它是一个非常重要的经济变量，因为汇率变动会影响一个国家的资本市场、外贸、金融、物价甚至政府行为，即影响整个国民经济的消费、投资、政府、进出口四个方面。所以，对汇率的变动问题应该作为国民经济的一件大事来对待。同时，国民经济也会反过来影响汇率变动，经济增长时本币升值，经济衰退时本币贬值。人民币升值对中国宏观经济的影响是多方面、全方位的，人民币升值表现为中国资产价格的上升，在形成预期的基础上，国际投资、投机资本持续涌入中国，对中国经济造成了巨大的冲击。进入2007年以来，中国国际收支项目持续双顺差的现象愈演愈烈，外汇储备达到创记录的10663亿美元，房地产和股票均大幅上涨，居民消费物价水平快速提高，这些现象与人民币的升值关系十分密切。揭示出这种联系，并为人民币升值提出合理的建议，正是本文写作的目的。本文共分五章。第一章是汇率及汇率制度基本理论。了解及掌握汇率制度的种类、汇率的决定因素对理解人民币升值是不可或缺的，本章在介绍汇率制度理论的基础上，对汇率制度对经济影响的文献进行了综述。第二章是人民币汇率制度的回顾。本章回顾了建国以来各个时期的汇率制度，并分析了2005年汇率改革以来中国经济的总体运行情况。第三章是对人民币升值原因进行分析。人民币升值与宏观经济运行中各部分是相互作用、相互影响的，本章首先讨论了决定汇率的各种理论，分析了人民币升值的原因，得出人民币在未来一段时间内将继续保持有节奏升值的结论。第四章是人民币升值对宏观经济影响的分析。自从2005年7月21日，人民币持续对美元表现为单向升值，这种现象必然对中国经济产生巨大影响。进入2007年以来，随着人民币升值步幅有所加快，前期升值过程中在国民经济中积累的各种压力已经逐步显现出来，理应引起我们的重视。第五章是对人民币升值的建议。本章首先分析了日元升值给我国带来的经验和启示，分析了日元的快速升值给日本经济带来的正面和负面冲击，并在分析人民币升值前景的基础上，提出了人民币升值的合理化建议，以保证我国宏观经济的稳定发展。 （2）篇名：论人民币升值趋势及其对我国出口的影响作者：程春燕文献来源：厦门大学2005年7月21日人民币汇率改革以来，人民币一直处于升值趋势中。人民币升值引起了很多关注和讨论，其中有一大部分是与我国出口有关。本文首先对人民币汇率未来走势进行了分析，指出人民币汇率将保持长期渐进的升值趋势；接着，本文从出口价格和出口竞争力两方面着重分析了人民币升值对我国出口产生影响的具体作用过程与相应的影响结果。本文的这种分析不但说明了人民币升值会对我国出口产生什么样的影响结果，而且同时揭示了产生这种影响的原因。这将对我国如何妥善处理人民币汇率改革和调节外贸平衡之间的关系，具有参考意义。 本文的研究框架如下： 第一章分析汇改后人民币汇率的变化情况及其未来走势。本文的分析认为，人民币汇率将保持长期升值趋势，但升值将是渐进的，年升值幅度将保持在适度的范围内。 第二章从出口成本、出口贸易结构、汇率对出口价格的传递效应等角度分析了人民币升值对我国商品出口价格的影响，分析结果表明，人民币升值会导致我国商品出口价格上涨，但是上涨幅度远小于人民币升值幅度。 第三章从出口竞争力要素自身、进口市场需求、出口竞争对手的替代效应等方面分析了人民币升值对我国商品出口竞争力的影响，结果表明，虽然人民币升值会使出口价格上涨一定幅度，但是出口竞争力并不会因此受到削弱。 第四章是结论与建议。本文的结论是，人民币升值对我国出口影响不明显。本文因此建议：(1)人民币汇率制度的改革不应受制于出口方面的压力；(2)调节外贸顺差不能依靠人民币升值，应该综合考虑其他措施。（3）Title：The effect of a generalized appreciation of East Asian currencies on exports from China.Author：Smith, Gordon RSource：George Mason University【Abstract】Chinas global current account surplus equaled 9 percent of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 12 percent of GDP in the first half of 2007. Many argue that an RMB appreciation would help rebalance Chinas trade. Using a panel data set including Chinas exports to 33 countries we find that a 10 percent RMB appreciation would reduce ordinary exports by 12 percent and processed exports by less than 4 percent. A 10 percent appreciation of all other East Asian currencies would reduce processed exports by 6 percent. A 10 percent appreciation throughout the region would reduce processed exports by 10 percent. Since ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports are sophisticated, any capital-intensive goods, a generalized appreciation in East Asia would generate more expenditure-switching towards U.S. and European goods and contribute more to resolving global imbalances than an appreciation of the RMB or other Asian currencies alone. （4）Title：Essays on Chinas Macro-economy and Credit Market.Author：Zhang, Yuanyan.Source：University of California, Los Angeles.【Abstract】In the past two decades, the world has witnessed an very unprecedented growth of GDP in China. And the growth has largely been driven by the surging current surplus, which results in large really international reserves accumulation. The effect of this gigantic build up of reserves has been a source of growing public attention in the context of the debate on global imbalances. A common argument is that the culprit of global imbalances is a result of exchange rate manipulation by the Chinese authorities, which peg the RMB to the dollar at a low value. Chapter one looks at the real exchange rate movement in China and in other foreign currency inflow countries during the period with massive many international reserves accumulation. In this chapter, we introduce the idea of sterilization by the people, which refers to the concept of increasing money demand partially offsetting the effect of increasing money supply. And we find that sterilization by the people plays a dominant role in mitigating the real exchange rate appreciation pressure in China. This finding is consistent with the high savings rate, largely in the form of M2 in China. Further development of the financial system and improvement of the social safety net may reduce peoples demand for the monetary balance and lead to the real exchange rate appreciation to a new equilibrium.Chapter two analyzes Chinas business cycle by linking its credit market with the real economy. To be more specific, it studies the role of credit market imperfection and sectoral asymmetry as means through which shocks to the real economy are propagated and amplified. Most Chinese firms finance their investment by internal funds, which explain the high and ever-growing corporate savings in the recent decade. This is due to the lack of access to the external funds, in other words, credit constraints. With its credit constraint more binding, the very non-tradable sector experiences larger fluctuation in investment and output than the tradable sector. Hence, we observe the non-uniform credit market imperfection and unbalanced business fluctuation across sectors. Both chapter one and two are centered on the macroeconomic consequences of the high savings rate in China. Chapter three analyzes its potential drivers. It is found that the high savings rate is mainly contributed to the high corporate savings that result from the growing enterprise profits and low dividend payout. And the credit market imperfection is mainly responsible for firms dependence on internal financing, particularly for the small private firms. 4、 网络上相关网页(10页) (只列题名，IP地址.)(注意相关度)(1)RMB Appreciation and Chinas Economy/06/14/rmb-appreciation-chinas-economy/(2)分析：人民币升值的十大利弊影响（人民币汇率升值）/100913/169/ybeg.html(3)浅谈人民币升值对我国经济的影响/new/21602_23217_/2009_5_11_li721552024111590024725.shtml(4)人民币升值的影响_利弊_原因/article/2010-06-08/0000081102s.shtml(5)人民币升值的影响及对策/GB/49154/49155/7126049.html(6)人民币升值不会影响出口/special/focus275/(7)人民币升值对我国对外贸易的影响./guojimaoyi/090306/10400292.html(8)人民比对基金的影响几何/news/rmb510/(9)人民币升值的影响及投资策略/100322/134,1509,7415532,00.shtml(10) IMF：人民币升值影响有限 /story/0010397255、会议论文（2篇）（1）人民币升值对中国产品价值竞争力影响的实证分析第十三届亚太质量组织国际会议暨第六届中国上海国际质量研讨会2007年10月18日（2）人民币升值对我国大米进出口影响的实证分析 2008年全国中青年农业经济学者年会 2008年11月21日6、中外文电子图书（相关专业）各3种，说明来源，格式，书名，作者，标准书号，有无全文。（1）来源：超星电子图书格式：PDF书名：人民币升值对中国经济的影响 （全文）作者：刘崇献, 李彤标准书号：7501792992, 9787501792993（2）来源： 书生电子图书格式：PDF书名：人民币升值争议 （无全文）作者：范祖德标准书号：7501942617, 9787501942619（3）来源：书生电子图书格式：PDF书名：人民幣升值與你的財富關鍵30問 （无全文）作者：杨翠迎标准书号：9866165000, 9789866165009（4）source：BSP(Business Source Premier)format：PDFtitle: The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trades flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade modelauthor: Li Wang, John Whalley, National Bureau of Economic ResearchISBN: 082136040X（5）source：BSP(Business Source Premier) format：PDFtitle: How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect Chinas Exports?author: Thorbecke, WillemISBN: 09657576(6) source：BSP(Business Source Premier)format：PDFtitle: Excess Liquidity, Inflation and the Yuan Appreciation: What Can China Learn from Recent History?author: A. van NunenISBN：03785920四、综述报告（含课题研究目的、技术背景、现状分析、市场分析，展望等，500-1000字左右。（文科同学800-1500字）人民币升值表现为一单位外币兑换的人民币单位数额比以前减少,或者说一单位人民币可以兑换 比以前更多的外币。人民币升值直观地体现在外汇汇率上，以人民币兑换美元为例：2005年7月21日用1美元